Is Nvidia stock too cheap right now?
112 segments
the earnings report of all earnings
reports from chip king Nvidia on August
26. What I am wondering at the moment is
if the stock has gotten too darn cheap,
BFA analyst VC Arya said today in a note
that Nvidia may be 50% undervalued. I
mean why not 80% but he said 50%. Taking
uh this one to the round table, Jared,
let me get back to you. Uh the call out
is interesting in the sense Nvidia stock
is coming up against that all-time high
I believe hit on May 14th.
>> Yeah. So, it's a really interesting
setup here and there's going to be a lot
of questions uh about their not their
free cash flow but the way it's deployed
and so the way Bank of America is coming
at this is through a sum of parts free
cash flow and they're comparing Nvidia
to some of their peers like uh Marll or
AMD which on that basis are very much
over uh you can see AMD Marll for 2027
they got those 46 49 times uh multiple
and then uh BFA kind of backs into the
calculation you Nvidia has all these
so-called circular financing deals. Even
if you impair 50% of its cash flow, they
still end up with uh some pretty big
numbers and so based on that, yeah,
they're saying Nvidia should be trading
a lot higher or should be a lot more
expensive. Uh in other words, it's cheap
right now. Um I think there's going to
be two really interesting things to come
on the call. First, what is Nvidia doing
with buybacks? This is something that
BFA really calls out here because if
you're if you increase your buybacks and
Nvidia hasn't done as many as a percent
of its total free cash flow as some of
its peers, but if you increase that, a
lot of the concerns about uh circular
financing deals go away because you're
giving shareholders back the the cash
flow. The other is uh all their
investments including off balance sheet
investments and the size of those and
how they're being treated uh on you know
on an accounting basis. So, I think
those are two things that investors are
really going to look for. And uh that's
something that kind of blows my mind
because a year ago that was on nobody's
radar.
>> Uh Eric, it's days like this where I
miss picking stocks because I would have
come out and made this call uh on Nvidia
head of earnings.
Well, uh, I thought it's been cheap for
a while, but if I could pretend I'm
Jared and say, "Hey, let's go to Wi-Fi
Interactive and you could pull up a, you
know, the last threeear chart of
Nvidia."
>> Go ahead, Eric.
>> You know, and so I think it's sort of
law of large numbers that's that's
plaguing them. The great company, great
CEO, got nothing bad to say about
Jensen, but I think, you know, there's a
reason why Marll is a is a higher
multiple. cuz it's smaller and the
market sort of believes the growth is is
coming. So, I don't know is can stock
buybacks do the trick to kind of juice
this thing? I mean, I guess it did for
Apple, but it didn't do it right away.
It took a couple of years for the market
to realize that the EPS was getting
better over time and so forth. So, I'm
not sure. I I you know, I I think that
uh names like Nvidia and all the memory
stocks, they've obviously all had a run.
Nvidia had it first, then the memory
stocks later. I think the market is kind
of smiffing out like what are going to
be the next set of stocks to benefit
from AI that are going to go 5x or so
forth.
>> And Eric, I think investors are are not
given the respect uh this portfolio of
stocks that Nvidia or companies the
companies or the companies Nvidia has
invested in enough respect. Why is it so
bad that Nvidia has invested in Open AI
and Enthropic? I mean, I get they're
basically the same companies, but still
both of them are likely to have massive
IPOs. Nvidia is going to get paid.
>> It's not bad. It it's a good thing. It's
not cir I don't I I I I I don't have
time for these people to say it's all
circular financing. Oh, do it's a house
of cards is going to fall. I mean, these
are just the bears that are perennial
bears. Uh I you know, there's a reason
why they want to support this uh
ecosystem around them to to buy their
chips. So makes perfect sense from an
operating perspective and that's a
different question from is the stock
going to work over the next 6 12 months.
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The video discusses a recent note from a BFA analyst suggesting that Nvidia stock may be significantly undervalued, potentially by 50%. The conversation explores the valuation of Nvidia compared to its peers like AMD and Marvell, the impact of its stock buyback strategies, and the market's perception of its investments and circular financing deals. Analysts also touch upon the growth prospects of other AI-related stocks and the strategic value of Nvidia's investment portfolio.
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