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The Only AI Stocks I'm Buying (Before It's Too Late)

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The Only AI Stocks I'm Buying (Before It's Too Late)

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439 segments

0:00

AI stocks have lost over a trillion

0:02

dollars in combined value over the last

0:04

two weeks with some stocks crashing so

0:06

fast that they tripped circuit breakers

0:09

and halted trading altogether. But while

0:11

most of Wall Street is panic selling, I

0:13

see a huge opportunity to buy great

0:15

stocks at even greater discounts. Talk

0:18

about a great way to get rich without

0:20

getting lucky. My name is Alex and

0:22

that's exactly how I made so much money

0:25

on great stocks like Nvidia, Micron, and

0:27

TSMC over the last 10 years. Let me show

0:30

you what's really happening underneath

0:32

all the panic and how I'm investing in

0:34

it. Your time is valuable, so let's get

0:37

right into it. South Korea's main stock

0:39

index is called the Kospi and it's kind

0:41

of like our S&P 500 but for the Korea

0:44

exchange. The Kospi is down by over 15%

0:47

in the last few days and more than 30%

0:50

in the last month alone. In fact, it

0:52

fell so hard so fast that it triggered a

0:55

market-wide circuit breaker, an

0:57

automatic halt that freezes trading

0:59

across the entire exchange. Imagine the

1:02

panic if that happened to the S&P 500.

1:05

It happened to the Kospi at least eight

1:07

times so far this year. The Kospi tracks

1:10

833 companies, but the two we're focused

1:13

on sit right at the top. Samsung makes

1:16

up over 26% of the entire index and SK

1:20

Hynix makes up another 24. That's more

1:23

than half the entire index represented

1:25

in just two stocks and that's after

1:28

their massive recent drawdowns. The same

1:30

thing causing this catastrophic decline

1:32

in the Korea exchange is also affecting

1:34

US stocks. Not because of the businesses

1:37

themselves, but because new reports are

1:39

coming out saying that China has begun

1:42

mass producing its own emerging DUV

1:44

lithography machines with the first

1:46

systems due later this year. Lithography

1:49

machines are the size of a small

1:51

apartment and they contain hundreds of

1:53

thousands of parts. Those parts all come

1:56

together to print microscopic circuits

1:58

onto chips using ultraviolet light.

2:00

These machines can only run in clean

2:02

rooms, specialized sealed and filtered

2:05

facilities with essentially zero dust in

2:07

the air because a single speck of dust

2:10

landing on the wafer can interfere with

2:12

the light and ruin the chip. In fact,

2:14

these machines are so specialized that

2:16

essentially only one company on Earth

2:19

can even make them, ASML, a Dutch

2:21

company that controls almost the entire

2:24

global lithography market until now.

2:27

Deep ultraviolet, or DUV lithography,

2:30

isn't precise enough to make the most

2:31

advanced GPUs or AI processors with high

2:34

enough yields, but it is precise enough

2:37

to make memory, NAND flash memory, DRAM,

2:40

and even the dies inside high bandwidth

2:42

memory that goes onto AI chips. But

2:45

stacking those dies is a different

2:47

problem altogether and a much harder

2:49

one. And if China can mass-produce

2:51

memory, then Samsung and SK Hynix are in

2:54

for a world of hurt since they control

2:56

around 70% of the current global DRAM

2:59

market and close to 80% of the market

3:02

for high bandwidth memory. That's why

3:04

they're crashing and they're taking

3:06

every other AI stock down with them.

3:08

Remember what I said a week ago when I

3:10

told you this market shock was coming.

3:12

These machines come in hundreds of

3:14

crates and take months just to assemble.

3:17

And after that, they still need to be

3:19

calibrated, tested, and tuned for the

3:21

specific chips that they'll be making.

3:23

And they aren't the only machine in the

3:25

process. It takes dozens of individual

3:28

machines and hundreds of individual

3:30

steps to make memory. So, China has to

3:33

recreate the whole production process,

3:35

not just one machine, and with high

3:38

enough yields to actually compete. So,

3:40

that begs the obvious question, should

3:42

every AI stock go down just because

3:44

there might be more competition for

3:46

memory a few years from now? And the

3:48

best way to answer that is by looking at

3:51

the data. I think three kinds of

3:53

companies are getting over sold in this

3:55

correction. Memory, which is how all of

3:57

this started, AI cloud companies that

3:59

rent out compute instead of making

4:01

memory, and quantum computing companies,

4:03

which are a separate kind of company all

4:05

together. And the thing is, all three

4:07

kinds of companies are hitting major

4:09

milestones while their stocks keep

4:11

crashing. Let's start with memory. On

4:13

July 13th, SK Hynix stock fell by more

4:16

than 15% in a single trading day, the

4:19

worst day in the company's 40-year

4:21

history. Here's what actually happened.

4:23

An analyst from Korea Investment and

4:25

Securities published a research note

4:28

explaining that most of SK Hynix's high

4:30

bandwidth memory was locked under

4:32

long-term contracts spanning roughly 3

4:34

to 5 years. The prices in those

4:36

contracts are fixed 12 to 36 months

4:39

before the first chips even come off the

4:41

production line. That means when memory

4:43

prices go up, SK Hynix doesn't get to

4:46

charge more for the memory that's

4:48

already under contract. And memory

4:50

prices have been going up a lot over the

4:52

last quarter. Standard DRAM prices rose

4:55

about 30% and NAND flash memory prices

4:58

rose around 50% quarter over quarter.

5:01

So, the big idea behind this analyst

5:03

memo was that memory companies missed

5:05

out on these price gains by locking in

5:07

so much of their HBM sales through

5:10

contracts ahead of time. So, SK Hynix

5:13

had the worst market day in company

5:15

history because memory got more

5:17

expensive, not cheaper, more expensive.

5:20

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5:22

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5:26

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easier than ever for them to get your

5:41

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5:44

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5:46

your information more often. But what

5:48

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5:50

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5:52

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or with my link in the description. All

6:33

right. So, SK Hynix had their worst

6:35

market day ever because memory got more

6:38

expensive and their contracts stopped

6:40

them from enjoying some of that upside.

6:42

And it's not just SK Hynix. SanDisk

6:45

disclosed roughly $42 billion in minimum

6:48

contract value that they signed over the

6:50

last quarter. Those contracts cover over

6:52

a third of the memory by bits that

6:54

SanDisk expects to make this fiscal

6:57

year. And Micron has 16 strategic

7:00

customer agreements that represent over

7:02

a hundred billion dollars in minimum

7:04

contract value. That covers roughly 20%

7:07

of their DRAM and a third of their NAND

7:10

flash volume. These are huge contracts

7:12

that prevent these huge upsides. So,

7:14

memory stocks went down over the last

7:16

few weeks. But look what's happening

7:18

now. The big reason for the current

7:20

drawdown is that China might be able to

7:23

make their own memory with homegrown DUV

7:25

lithography machines. That increases

7:28

supply, which means memory prices should

7:30

fall. But these same contracts that

7:32

prevent memory companies from enjoying

7:34

the upsides protect them from falling

7:36

prices, too. Exactly the thing the whole

7:39

market is is about. SK Hynix stock is

7:42

down by around 25% over the last couple

7:45

weeks on the Nasdaq and around 50% in

7:47

the past month on the Korea Exchange.

7:50

Micron stock is down by around 35% over

7:52

the last month and 25% in the last week

7:55

alone. And SanDisk stock has literally

7:58

been cut in half over the last 30 days,

8:01

even though contracts protect all three

8:03

companies from falling prices. And China

8:06

is still years away from using their DUV

8:08

lithography machines to make competitive

8:11

chips at scale. I'm not saying there's

8:13

zero risk for these memory stocks, but I

8:15

am saying that it's way too early to

8:17

price those risks in, at least in my

8:20

opinion. Another risk that's being

8:22

priced in way too early is Meta Compute.

8:24

Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported

8:26

that Meta is planning their own cloud

8:28

business called Meta Compute to rent out

8:31

any extra AI infrastructure that they

8:33

build to outside companies. The report

8:35

sent Meta's stock up by almost 9% in a

8:38

single trading day, while knocking down

8:40

neo cloud stocks like Core Weave,

8:42

Nebius, and Iren by 14 to 17% each. But

8:47

the bleeding hasn't stopped for these

8:48

companies. Core Weave is down by over

8:50

35% this month and almost 25% in the

8:54

last week alone. Iren is also down by

8:57

over 35% and Nebius is down by over 40,

9:01

marking some of the sharpest declines

9:03

these three companies have ever seen.

9:06

It's worth asking the same question

9:07

here. Should these three companies

9:09

really be down by this much? Let's think

9:12

about it from first principles. Neo

9:14

cloud companies rent compute capacity to

9:16

companies that want AI, but don't want

9:19

to spend billions of dollars building

9:20

and maintaining their own physical

9:22

infrastructures. So, these neo clouds go

9:24

out and secure grid connected power,

9:27

build or buy data centers, fill them

9:29

with racks of GPUs and networking gear,

9:31

and make their money back by renting it

9:33

all out once everything's all online.

9:36

That means neo clouds have to risk a lot

9:38

of money up front and hope that they'll

9:40

still be enough demand when everything

9:42

is up and running. If the company is

9:44

still young and unprofitable, they need

9:46

to borrow that money, usually by taking

9:48

out loans at high interest rates or

9:50

diluting shareholders, both of which are

9:53

bad for the stock. But Meta Platforms

9:55

doesn't have that problem since it's

9:57

already a trillion-dollar tech giant

9:59

with massive margins. So, Meta can build

10:02

as much compute capacity as they want

10:04

and rent out whatever end up using

10:07

without having to raise any extra

10:09

capital or take on loans with bad terms.

10:12

So, it's game over for the neo-clouds,

10:14

right? Meta gets all of the upside with

10:16

almost none of the downsides or the

10:18

risks. Well, not exactly. First, Meta

10:21

just reported earnings on July 29th. On

10:24

their previous earnings call, Mark

10:26

Zuckerberg said that entering the cloud

10:27

business is definitely on the table. On

10:30

this one, he said that they're getting

10:31

offers to rent out their compute at a

10:34

big premium over what they paid for it,

10:36

but he thinks that it would be foolish

10:38

to just sell their compute for

10:39

short-term profits. Meta can make much

10:42

more money by selling finished

10:43

intelligence services like agentic

10:45

models and coding tools instead of

10:48

renting out raw hardware. As a result,

10:50

Meta is using all of their servers

10:52

themselves and don't have any extra

10:54

compute capacity to rent out. On top of

10:57

that, Iren and Nebius both signed

10:59

billion-dollar contracts after this

11:02

report came out. On July 14th, Nebius

11:05

agreed to sell more than a billion

11:06

dollars of compute capacity to

11:08

Reflection AI. The contract runs through

11:10

2029 for access to Nvidia's GB200

11:14

Blackwell Ultra Chips. Then, on July

11:16

20th, Iren signed $2.8 billion in new

11:20

multi-year AI cloud contracts and raised

11:23

their year-end target for their revenue

11:25

run rate. And don't forget that Meta

11:27

actually has $35 billion committed to

11:30

CoreWeave and up to 27 billion dollars

11:33

in additional contracts with Nebius.

11:35

That makes Meta a net buyer of Neocloud

11:38

compu, not a net seller like the market

11:41

is pricing in right now. So, Meta compu

11:44

is a great way for them to hedge against

11:46

overspending on their own AI data

11:48

centers, but it's not happening anytime

11:50

soon. That's why I'm still buying IREN,

11:53

Nebius, and CoreWeave, especially as

11:55

their prices continue to fall. And I'm

11:58

not the only one. On July 20th, NVIDIA

12:01

filed a disclosure with the SEC stating

12:03

that they own over 22 million shares of

12:05

Nebius, which works out to around 9.3%

12:09

of the company. To me, that means NVIDIA

12:11

isn't just betting on Nebius, but on the

12:13

bigger idea that Neoclouds are worth

12:16

investing in directly. And that brings

12:18

me to the third group of stocks, quantum

12:20

computing. And if you feel I've earned

12:22

it, consider hitting the like button and

12:24

subscribing to the channel. That really

12:26

helps, and it lets me know to make more

12:28

videos like this. Thanks. Now, let's

12:30

talk about IonQ, D-Wave, and Rigetti,

12:33

since they're all down by 30 to 40% over

12:36

the last few weeks. On July 13th, the

12:39

same day that halted the Korea exchange,

12:41

all three quantum computing companies

12:43

went down by close to 10%. No news, no

12:46

earnings misses, and no delays. So,

12:48

let's ask the same question for a third

12:50

time. Should these three stocks really

12:52

be down by this much? First, there's no

12:55

meaningful connection between quantum

12:56

computing hardware and Korean memory.

12:59

These machines don't compete with

13:00

memory. They don't buy in large volumes,

13:03

and they don't sell to the same

13:04

customers. Quantum computing stocks

13:06

simply moved with the rest of the

13:08

market. And second, all three companies

13:10

had major developments during this

13:12

drawdown. On July 27th, AT&T signed an

13:15

agreement to expand their use of

13:17

D-Wave's quantum systems across their

13:19

network. AT&T plans to use these systems

13:22

for outage detection and response,

13:24

technician routing, network traffic

13:26

management, and even build planning. In

13:29

one early application, AT&T cut a

13:32

network optimization workload that

13:34

usually takes an hour down to under 15

13:36

seconds. That's roughly a 240 times

13:39

speed up thanks to D-Wave's quantum

13:41

processor. That same day, Rigetti

13:43

expanded their collaboration with HPE to

13:46

build a hybrid quantum-classical testbed

13:49

at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center.

13:51

Construction starts September 1st. And

13:54

one day later, IonQ cleared the final

13:56

regulatory hurdle to acquire Skywater

13:59

Technology, an American semiconductor

14:01

foundry, with the deal expected to close

14:03

right as I published this video. So,

14:06

IonQ is spending money on securing a

14:08

fully domestic supply chain to

14:10

accelerate their own road map. All three

14:12

companies report earnings in early

14:14

August. So, let me know in the comments

14:16

if you want me to follow up with another

14:18

video focused on quantum computing. All

14:20

right, here's a table summarizing

14:22

everything I've covered. As you read

14:24

through it, keep a few things in mind. I

14:26

built this table myself, and I tried to

14:28

keep each row as apples to apples as I

14:30

could, but it's not perfect. For

14:33

example, I'm showing price changes over

14:35

the last month, but SK Hynix didn't list

14:37

on the Nasdaq until July 10th. So, I'm

14:40

using their price on the Korea exchange

14:42

instead, which is about a day ahead. And

14:44

all these companies have different

14:46

fiscal years, so I'm using their

14:47

trailing 12-month revenue growth. And of

14:50

course, they all have different contract

14:51

lengths and terms with different

14:53

customers and fundamentally different

14:55

technologies. So, basically, take this

14:58

as a solid summary table, but not as

15:00

official audited numbers. Here's what

15:02

jumps out at me after putting this all

15:04

together. Every one of these stocks is

15:06

down by between 30 and 55% in a single

15:10

month. Memory makers, AI cloud

15:12

companies, and quantum computing. Three

15:15

completely different markets with three

15:17

completely different kinds of milestones

15:19

and risks. And almost every single one

15:22

of them has grown their revenues by

15:24

triple digits. Nebias grew by 453%.

15:28

IonQ grew by 335%.

15:31

These are not companies in trouble.

15:33

Their stocks got cut in half while their

15:35

businesses doubled. And then there's

15:37

Rigetti with revenues down 34%

15:40

year-over-year, but that number is

15:42

hiding something big. Their most recent

15:44

quarter was actually up 199%

15:47

driven by on-premises system sales and

15:50

government contracts. Early-stage

15:52

quantum revenue is always spiky because

15:55

it comes from individual system sales,

15:57

research awards, and cloud access

15:59

milestones instead of steadily recurring

16:01

revenue. A big system can ship in one

16:03

quarter and not in the next. So, if

16:06

you're investing in quantum computing,

16:08

you already know it's going to be a

16:10

bumpy long-term ride. And speaking of

16:13

bumpy, one quick note about this

16:15

drawdown. If you look at the price

16:16

action over the last month, you'll find

16:18

plenty of days where stocks ripped 10,

16:21

15, or even 20% higher in a single day,

16:25

only to lose it all again the following

16:27

week. A green day in the middle of a

16:29

drawdown can feel like the bottom, and

16:31

sometimes it is, but sometimes it's just

16:34

a breather before the next leg down.

16:36

That's why I always dollar cost average

16:38

into these positions and why I always

16:41

keep some money on the side in case

16:42

things go lower. That's a great way to

16:45

get rich without getting lucky. And if

16:47

you want to see even more stocks I'm

16:49

buying rich without getting lucky, check

16:52

out this video next. Either way, thanks

16:54

for watching, and until next time, this

16:56

is ticker symbol U. My name is Alex,

16:58

reminding you that the best investment

17:01

you can make

17:02

is in you.

Interactive Summary

This video analyzes the recent, significant market crash in AI-related stocks, which has erased over a trillion dollars in value. The presenter, Alex, argues that this panic selling represents a prime buying opportunity for high-quality stocks in memory, AI cloud infrastructure, and quantum computing. He examines why these sectors are crashing—driven partly by fears of Chinese competition in lithography and concerns over AI cloud demand—and provides counter-arguments based on business performance, long-term contracts, and recent company milestones. He concludes by emphasizing a long-term investment strategy, specifically recommending dollar-cost averaging to navigate market volatility.

Suggested questions

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