The Only AI Stocks I'm Buying (Before It's Too Late)
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AI stocks have lost over a trillion
dollars in combined value over the last
two weeks with some stocks crashing so
fast that they tripped circuit breakers
and halted trading altogether. But while
most of Wall Street is panic selling, I
see a huge opportunity to buy great
stocks at even greater discounts. Talk
about a great way to get rich without
getting lucky. My name is Alex and
that's exactly how I made so much money
on great stocks like Nvidia, Micron, and
TSMC over the last 10 years. Let me show
you what's really happening underneath
all the panic and how I'm investing in
it. Your time is valuable, so let's get
right into it. South Korea's main stock
index is called the Kospi and it's kind
of like our S&P 500 but for the Korea
exchange. The Kospi is down by over 15%
in the last few days and more than 30%
in the last month alone. In fact, it
fell so hard so fast that it triggered a
market-wide circuit breaker, an
automatic halt that freezes trading
across the entire exchange. Imagine the
panic if that happened to the S&P 500.
It happened to the Kospi at least eight
times so far this year. The Kospi tracks
833 companies, but the two we're focused
on sit right at the top. Samsung makes
up over 26% of the entire index and SK
Hynix makes up another 24. That's more
than half the entire index represented
in just two stocks and that's after
their massive recent drawdowns. The same
thing causing this catastrophic decline
in the Korea exchange is also affecting
US stocks. Not because of the businesses
themselves, but because new reports are
coming out saying that China has begun
mass producing its own emerging DUV
lithography machines with the first
systems due later this year. Lithography
machines are the size of a small
apartment and they contain hundreds of
thousands of parts. Those parts all come
together to print microscopic circuits
onto chips using ultraviolet light.
These machines can only run in clean
rooms, specialized sealed and filtered
facilities with essentially zero dust in
the air because a single speck of dust
landing on the wafer can interfere with
the light and ruin the chip. In fact,
these machines are so specialized that
essentially only one company on Earth
can even make them, ASML, a Dutch
company that controls almost the entire
global lithography market until now.
Deep ultraviolet, or DUV lithography,
isn't precise enough to make the most
advanced GPUs or AI processors with high
enough yields, but it is precise enough
to make memory, NAND flash memory, DRAM,
and even the dies inside high bandwidth
memory that goes onto AI chips. But
stacking those dies is a different
problem altogether and a much harder
one. And if China can mass-produce
memory, then Samsung and SK Hynix are in
for a world of hurt since they control
around 70% of the current global DRAM
market and close to 80% of the market
for high bandwidth memory. That's why
they're crashing and they're taking
every other AI stock down with them.
Remember what I said a week ago when I
told you this market shock was coming.
These machines come in hundreds of
crates and take months just to assemble.
And after that, they still need to be
calibrated, tested, and tuned for the
specific chips that they'll be making.
And they aren't the only machine in the
process. It takes dozens of individual
machines and hundreds of individual
steps to make memory. So, China has to
recreate the whole production process,
not just one machine, and with high
enough yields to actually compete. So,
that begs the obvious question, should
every AI stock go down just because
there might be more competition for
memory a few years from now? And the
best way to answer that is by looking at
the data. I think three kinds of
companies are getting over sold in this
correction. Memory, which is how all of
this started, AI cloud companies that
rent out compute instead of making
memory, and quantum computing companies,
which are a separate kind of company all
together. And the thing is, all three
kinds of companies are hitting major
milestones while their stocks keep
crashing. Let's start with memory. On
July 13th, SK Hynix stock fell by more
than 15% in a single trading day, the
worst day in the company's 40-year
history. Here's what actually happened.
An analyst from Korea Investment and
Securities published a research note
explaining that most of SK Hynix's high
bandwidth memory was locked under
long-term contracts spanning roughly 3
to 5 years. The prices in those
contracts are fixed 12 to 36 months
before the first chips even come off the
production line. That means when memory
prices go up, SK Hynix doesn't get to
charge more for the memory that's
already under contract. And memory
prices have been going up a lot over the
last quarter. Standard DRAM prices rose
about 30% and NAND flash memory prices
rose around 50% quarter over quarter.
So, the big idea behind this analyst
memo was that memory companies missed
out on these price gains by locking in
so much of their HBM sales through
contracts ahead of time. So, SK Hynix
had the worst market day in company
history because memory got more
expensive, not cheaper, more expensive.
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right. So, SK Hynix had their worst
market day ever because memory got more
expensive and their contracts stopped
them from enjoying some of that upside.
And it's not just SK Hynix. SanDisk
disclosed roughly $42 billion in minimum
contract value that they signed over the
last quarter. Those contracts cover over
a third of the memory by bits that
SanDisk expects to make this fiscal
year. And Micron has 16 strategic
customer agreements that represent over
a hundred billion dollars in minimum
contract value. That covers roughly 20%
of their DRAM and a third of their NAND
flash volume. These are huge contracts
that prevent these huge upsides. So,
memory stocks went down over the last
few weeks. But look what's happening
now. The big reason for the current
drawdown is that China might be able to
make their own memory with homegrown DUV
lithography machines. That increases
supply, which means memory prices should
fall. But these same contracts that
prevent memory companies from enjoying
the upsides protect them from falling
prices, too. Exactly the thing the whole
market is is about. SK Hynix stock is
down by around 25% over the last couple
weeks on the Nasdaq and around 50% in
the past month on the Korea Exchange.
Micron stock is down by around 35% over
the last month and 25% in the last week
alone. And SanDisk stock has literally
been cut in half over the last 30 days,
even though contracts protect all three
companies from falling prices. And China
is still years away from using their DUV
lithography machines to make competitive
chips at scale. I'm not saying there's
zero risk for these memory stocks, but I
am saying that it's way too early to
price those risks in, at least in my
opinion. Another risk that's being
priced in way too early is Meta Compute.
Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported
that Meta is planning their own cloud
business called Meta Compute to rent out
any extra AI infrastructure that they
build to outside companies. The report
sent Meta's stock up by almost 9% in a
single trading day, while knocking down
neo cloud stocks like Core Weave,
Nebius, and Iren by 14 to 17% each. But
the bleeding hasn't stopped for these
companies. Core Weave is down by over
35% this month and almost 25% in the
last week alone. Iren is also down by
over 35% and Nebius is down by over 40,
marking some of the sharpest declines
these three companies have ever seen.
It's worth asking the same question
here. Should these three companies
really be down by this much? Let's think
about it from first principles. Neo
cloud companies rent compute capacity to
companies that want AI, but don't want
to spend billions of dollars building
and maintaining their own physical
infrastructures. So, these neo clouds go
out and secure grid connected power,
build or buy data centers, fill them
with racks of GPUs and networking gear,
and make their money back by renting it
all out once everything's all online.
That means neo clouds have to risk a lot
of money up front and hope that they'll
still be enough demand when everything
is up and running. If the company is
still young and unprofitable, they need
to borrow that money, usually by taking
out loans at high interest rates or
diluting shareholders, both of which are
bad for the stock. But Meta Platforms
doesn't have that problem since it's
already a trillion-dollar tech giant
with massive margins. So, Meta can build
as much compute capacity as they want
and rent out whatever end up using
without having to raise any extra
capital or take on loans with bad terms.
So, it's game over for the neo-clouds,
right? Meta gets all of the upside with
almost none of the downsides or the
risks. Well, not exactly. First, Meta
just reported earnings on July 29th. On
their previous earnings call, Mark
Zuckerberg said that entering the cloud
business is definitely on the table. On
this one, he said that they're getting
offers to rent out their compute at a
big premium over what they paid for it,
but he thinks that it would be foolish
to just sell their compute for
short-term profits. Meta can make much
more money by selling finished
intelligence services like agentic
models and coding tools instead of
renting out raw hardware. As a result,
Meta is using all of their servers
themselves and don't have any extra
compute capacity to rent out. On top of
that, Iren and Nebius both signed
billion-dollar contracts after this
report came out. On July 14th, Nebius
agreed to sell more than a billion
dollars of compute capacity to
Reflection AI. The contract runs through
2029 for access to Nvidia's GB200
Blackwell Ultra Chips. Then, on July
20th, Iren signed $2.8 billion in new
multi-year AI cloud contracts and raised
their year-end target for their revenue
run rate. And don't forget that Meta
actually has $35 billion committed to
CoreWeave and up to 27 billion dollars
in additional contracts with Nebius.
That makes Meta a net buyer of Neocloud
compu, not a net seller like the market
is pricing in right now. So, Meta compu
is a great way for them to hedge against
overspending on their own AI data
centers, but it's not happening anytime
soon. That's why I'm still buying IREN,
Nebius, and CoreWeave, especially as
their prices continue to fall. And I'm
not the only one. On July 20th, NVIDIA
filed a disclosure with the SEC stating
that they own over 22 million shares of
Nebius, which works out to around 9.3%
of the company. To me, that means NVIDIA
isn't just betting on Nebius, but on the
bigger idea that Neoclouds are worth
investing in directly. And that brings
me to the third group of stocks, quantum
computing. And if you feel I've earned
it, consider hitting the like button and
subscribing to the channel. That really
helps, and it lets me know to make more
videos like this. Thanks. Now, let's
talk about IonQ, D-Wave, and Rigetti,
since they're all down by 30 to 40% over
the last few weeks. On July 13th, the
same day that halted the Korea exchange,
all three quantum computing companies
went down by close to 10%. No news, no
earnings misses, and no delays. So,
let's ask the same question for a third
time. Should these three stocks really
be down by this much? First, there's no
meaningful connection between quantum
computing hardware and Korean memory.
These machines don't compete with
memory. They don't buy in large volumes,
and they don't sell to the same
customers. Quantum computing stocks
simply moved with the rest of the
market. And second, all three companies
had major developments during this
drawdown. On July 27th, AT&T signed an
agreement to expand their use of
D-Wave's quantum systems across their
network. AT&T plans to use these systems
for outage detection and response,
technician routing, network traffic
management, and even build planning. In
one early application, AT&T cut a
network optimization workload that
usually takes an hour down to under 15
seconds. That's roughly a 240 times
speed up thanks to D-Wave's quantum
processor. That same day, Rigetti
expanded their collaboration with HPE to
build a hybrid quantum-classical testbed
at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center.
Construction starts September 1st. And
one day later, IonQ cleared the final
regulatory hurdle to acquire Skywater
Technology, an American semiconductor
foundry, with the deal expected to close
right as I published this video. So,
IonQ is spending money on securing a
fully domestic supply chain to
accelerate their own road map. All three
companies report earnings in early
August. So, let me know in the comments
if you want me to follow up with another
video focused on quantum computing. All
right, here's a table summarizing
everything I've covered. As you read
through it, keep a few things in mind. I
built this table myself, and I tried to
keep each row as apples to apples as I
could, but it's not perfect. For
example, I'm showing price changes over
the last month, but SK Hynix didn't list
on the Nasdaq until July 10th. So, I'm
using their price on the Korea exchange
instead, which is about a day ahead. And
all these companies have different
fiscal years, so I'm using their
trailing 12-month revenue growth. And of
course, they all have different contract
lengths and terms with different
customers and fundamentally different
technologies. So, basically, take this
as a solid summary table, but not as
official audited numbers. Here's what
jumps out at me after putting this all
together. Every one of these stocks is
down by between 30 and 55% in a single
month. Memory makers, AI cloud
companies, and quantum computing. Three
completely different markets with three
completely different kinds of milestones
and risks. And almost every single one
of them has grown their revenues by
triple digits. Nebias grew by 453%.
IonQ grew by 335%.
These are not companies in trouble.
Their stocks got cut in half while their
businesses doubled. And then there's
Rigetti with revenues down 34%
year-over-year, but that number is
hiding something big. Their most recent
quarter was actually up 199%
driven by on-premises system sales and
government contracts. Early-stage
quantum revenue is always spiky because
it comes from individual system sales,
research awards, and cloud access
milestones instead of steadily recurring
revenue. A big system can ship in one
quarter and not in the next. So, if
you're investing in quantum computing,
you already know it's going to be a
bumpy long-term ride. And speaking of
bumpy, one quick note about this
drawdown. If you look at the price
action over the last month, you'll find
plenty of days where stocks ripped 10,
15, or even 20% higher in a single day,
only to lose it all again the following
week. A green day in the middle of a
drawdown can feel like the bottom, and
sometimes it is, but sometimes it's just
a breather before the next leg down.
That's why I always dollar cost average
into these positions and why I always
keep some money on the side in case
things go lower. That's a great way to
get rich without getting lucky. And if
you want to see even more stocks I'm
buying rich without getting lucky, check
out this video next. Either way, thanks
for watching, and until next time, this
is ticker symbol U. My name is Alex,
reminding you that the best investment
you can make
is in you.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
This video analyzes the recent, significant market crash in AI-related stocks, which has erased over a trillion dollars in value. The presenter, Alex, argues that this panic selling represents a prime buying opportunity for high-quality stocks in memory, AI cloud infrastructure, and quantum computing. He examines why these sectors are crashing—driven partly by fears of Chinese competition in lithography and concerns over AI cloud demand—and provides counter-arguments based on business performance, long-term contracts, and recent company milestones. He concludes by emphasizing a long-term investment strategy, specifically recommending dollar-cost averaging to navigate market volatility.
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