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The Government Knows AGI is Coming | The Ezra Klein Show

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The Government Knows AGI is Coming | The Ezra Klein Show

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1814 segments

0:00

for the past couple of months I've been

0:01

having this strange experience where

0:05

person after person independent of each

0:07

other from AI Labs from government has

0:10

been coming to me and saying it's really

0:13

about to happen artificial general

0:15

intelligence AGI AGI AGI that is really

0:18

the Holy Grail of ai ai systems that are

0:22

better than almost all humans at almost

0:24

all tasks and before they thought you

0:26

know may it take 5 or 10 years 10 or 15

0:28

years now they believe it's coming

0:30

inside of 2 to 3 years a lot of people

0:32

don't realize that AI is going to be a

0:34

big thing inside Donald Trump's second

0:36

term and I think they're right and we're

0:38

not prepared in part because it's not

0:40

clear what it would mean to prepare we

0:42

don't know how labor markets will

0:43

respond we don't know which country is

0:45

going to get there first we don't know

0:46

what it will mean for war we don't know

0:48

what it will mean for peace and as much

0:50

as there is so much else going on in the

0:52

world to cover I do think there's a good

0:54

chance that when we look back on this

0:55

era in human history this will have been

0:57

the thing that matters this will have

0:58

been the Event Horizon thing that the

1:01

world before it and the world after it

1:02

were just different worlds one of the

1:05

people reached out to me is Ben Buchanan

1:06

who was the former special adviser for

1:09

artificial intelligence in the Biden

1:10

White House he was at the nerve center

1:13

of what policy we have been making in

1:15

recent years but there's now been a

1:17

profound changeover in administrations

1:20

and the new Administration has a lot of

1:21

people with very very very strong views

1:23

on AI so what are they going to do what

1:25

kinds of decisions are going to need to

1:26

be made and what kinds of thinking do we

1:29

need to start doing doing now to be

1:31

prepared for something that virtually

1:33

everybody who works in this area is

1:35

trying to tell us as loudly as they

1:37

possibly can is coming as always my

1:40

email as reclin show NY

1:47

times.com Ben M Canan welcome to the

1:49

show thanks for having me so you give me

1:51

a call after the end of the B

1:53

Administration and I got a call from a

1:54

lot of people in the B Administration

1:55

who wanted to tell me about all the

1:56

great work they did and you sort of seem

2:00

to want to warn people about what you

2:02

now thought was coming what's coming I

2:05

think we're going to see extraordinarily

2:06

capable AI systems I don't love the term

2:08

artificial general intelligence but I

2:09

think that will fit um in the next

2:12

couple years quite likely during Donald

2:14

Trump's uh presidency and I think

2:17

there's a view that this has always been

2:19

something of corporate hype or

2:21

speculation and I think one of the

2:23

things I saw in the white house when I

2:24

was decidedly not in a corporate

2:25

position was trend lines that looked

2:28

very clear and what we tried to do Under

2:30

the president's leadership was get uh

2:32

the US government and our society ready

2:34

for these systems before we get into

2:35

what do would mean to get

2:37

ready what does it mean yeah when you

2:41

say extraordinarily capable systems

2:44

capable of what the sort of canonical

2:46

definition of AGI which again is a term

2:48

I don't love is a system it'll be good

2:50

if every time you say AGI you caveat

2:52

that you dislike the it'll sink in right

2:54

yeah people really enjoy that I I'm

2:55

trying to get it in the training data

2:57

asra um uh a definition of AGI is a

3:01

system capable of doing almost any

3:03

cognitive task a human can do I don't

3:06

know that we'll quite see that in the

3:07

next uh four years or so but I do think

3:09

we'll see something like that where the

3:11

breath of the system is remarkable but

3:13

also its depth its capacity to go and

3:15

and really push in some cases exceed uh

3:18

human capabilities kind of regardless of

3:20

the cognitive discipline systems that

3:22

can replace human beings in cognitively

3:24

demanding jobs yeah or key parts of

3:27

cognitive demanding jobs yeah I will say

3:30

I am also pretty convinced we're on the

3:32

cusp of this so I'm not I'm not coming

3:35

at this as a

3:36

skeptic but I still find it hard to

3:39

mentally live in the world of it so do I

3:42

so I use deep research recently which is

3:44

a new open eye product it's sort of on

3:46

their more pricey tiers so most people I

3:48

think have not used it but it it it can

3:49

build out something it's more like a

3:51

scientific analytical brief in in a

3:53

matter of minutes and I work with

3:56

producers on the show I hire incredibly

3:58

talented people to do very demanding

4:00

research work and I asked it to do this

4:03

report on the tensions between the

4:06

madonian Constitutional system and the

4:09

sort of Highly polarized nationalized

4:11

parties we now have and what it produced

4:13

in a matter of minutes was I would at

4:16

least say the median of what any of the

4:19

teams I've worked with on this could

4:21

produce within days I've talked to a

4:24

number of people at firms that do high

4:26

amounts of coding and they tell me that

4:29

you know by the end of the Year by the

4:30

end of next year they expect most code

4:32

will not be written by human beings I

4:35

don't really see how this cannot have

4:36

Labor Market impact I think that's right

4:39

I'm not a labor market Economist but I

4:41

think that the systems uh are

4:44

extraordinarily capable in some ways I'm

4:46

very fond of the quote from William

4:48

Gibson the future is already here it's

4:50

just unevenly distributed and I think

4:52

unless you are engaging with this

4:53

technology you probably don't appreciate

4:55

how good it is today and then it's

4:57

important to recognize today is the

4:59

worst it's going to be it's only going

5:01

to get better and I think that is the

5:03

dynamic that in the white house we were

5:06

tracking and that I think the next White

5:09

House and and our country as a whole is

5:11

going to have to track and adapt to in

5:14

really short order and what's

5:16

fascinating to me what I think is in

5:17

some sense the intellectual through line

5:19

for almost every AI policy we considered

5:21

or implemented is that this is the first

5:24

revolutionary

5:25

technology um that is not funded by the

5:28

Department of Defense basically and if

5:29

you go back historically last 100 years

5:31

or so nukes space early days of the

5:34

internet early days of the

5:35

microprocessor early days of large scale

5:37

Aviation radar GPS the list is very very

5:39

long all of that Tech is fundamentally

5:42

comes from DOD money but the the central

5:45

government role gave the Department of

5:48

Defense and the US government an

5:49

understanding of the technology that by

5:51

default it does not have an AI and also

5:53

gave the US government a capacity to

5:55

shape where that technology goes that by

5:57

default we don't have an AI there are a

5:59

lot of arguments in America about AI the

6:01

one thing that seems not to get argued

6:05

over that seems almost universally

6:06

agreed upon and is the dominant in my

6:08

view controlling priority and policy is

6:10

it we get to AGI a term I've heard you

6:13

don't like yeah before China

6:15

does why I do think there are um

6:20

profound uh economic and Military and

6:23

intelligence capabilities that would be

6:26

Downstream of getting to AGI or

6:28

transformative Ai and I do think it is

6:31

fundamental for US National Security

6:34

that we continue to lead AI I think the

6:37

the quote that certainly I thought about

6:39

a fair amount uh was actually from

6:41

Kennedy in his famous rice speech in '

6:43

62 the the we're going to the Moon

6:45

speech we choose to go to the moon in

6:47

this decade and do the other things not

6:50

because they are easy but because they

6:52

are hard everyone remembers it because

6:54

he's saying we're going to the moon but

6:55

actually at the end of the speech I

6:56

think he gives the better line for space

6:58

science

7:00

like nuclear science and all technology

7:03

has no conscience of its own whether it

7:06

will become a Force for good or ill

7:09

depends on man and only if the United

7:12

States occupies a position of

7:16

preeminence can we help

7:19

decide whether this new ocean will be a

7:22

sea of peace or a new terrifying theater

7:26

of war and I think that is true uh in AI

7:29

that there's a lot of tremendous

7:30

uncertainty about this technology I'm

7:32

not an AI evangelist I think there's

7:34

huge risks for this technology but I do

7:36

think there is a um a fundamental role

7:40

for the United States uh in in being

7:43

able to shape where it goes which is not

7:45

to say we don't want to work

7:45

internationally which is not to say we

7:47

don't want to work with the Chinese uh

7:48

it's worth noting that in the

7:49

president's executive order on AI

7:51

there's a line in there saying we are

7:52

willing to work even with our

7:53

competitors on AI safety and the like

7:55

but it is worth saying that I think

7:57

pretty deeply there's a fundamental role

7:59

for America here that we cannot abdicate

8:01

paint the picture for me you say there'

8:04

be great economic National Security

8:05

military risks if China got their first

8:08

help me help the audience here imagine a

8:10

world where China gets there first so I

8:14

think let's look at just the narrow case

8:16

of of AI for intelligence analysis and

8:18

cyber operations this is I think pretty

8:20

out in the open that if you had a much

8:23

more powerful AI capability that would

8:25

probably enable you to do better cyber

8:26

operations um on offense and on defense

8:29

what is a operations breaking into an

8:30

adversaries Network to collect

8:32

information which if you're collecting

8:34

in a large enough volume AI systems can

8:36

help you analyze and we actually did a

8:38

whole big thing through DARPA the

8:39

defense Advanced research project agency

8:42

um called the AI cyber challenge to test

8:44

out ai's capabilities to do this that

8:46

was focused on defense because we think

8:48

AI could represent a fundamental shift

8:50

in how we conduct cyber operations on

8:52

offense and defense and I would not want

8:53

to live in a world in which uh China has

8:55

that capability on offense and defense

8:57

and cyber uh and the United States do

8:59

not and I think that is true in a bunch

9:01

of different domains that are core to

9:04

National Security competition my sense

9:06

already has been that most people most

9:10

institutions are pretty hackable to a

9:12

capable State actor not everything but a

9:16

lot of them and now both state actors

9:19

are going to get better at hacking and

9:22

uh they're going to have much more

9:23

capacity to do it in the sense that it

9:25

you know you can have many more AI

9:26

hackers than you can human hackers are

9:29

we just about to enter into a world

9:30

where we are just much more digitally

9:33

vulnerable as normal people and I'm not

9:35

just talking about people who the states

9:36

might want to spy on but you know you

9:39

will get versions of these systems that

9:40

just all kinds of Bad actors will have

9:42

do you worry it's about to get truly

9:44

dystopic what we mean canonically when

9:47

we speak of hacking is finding

9:48

vulnerability in software exploiting

9:51

that vulnerability to get elicit access

9:54

and I think it is right that more

9:57

powerful AI systems will make it easier

9:59

to find vulnerabilities and exploit them

10:01

and gain access and that will yield an

10:04

advantage to the offensive side of the

10:05

ball I think it is also the case that

10:07

more powerful AI systems on the

10:09

defensive side will make it easier to

10:11

write more secure secure code in the

10:13

first place reduce the number of

10:14

vulnerabilities that can be found and to

10:15

better detect the hackers that are

10:16

coming in we tried as much as possible

10:19

to shift the balance towards the

10:21

defensive side of this but I think it is

10:23

right that in the the coming years here

10:25

the sort of transition period we've been

10:26

talking about that there will be a

10:29

period in which sort of older Legacy

10:31

systems that don't have the advantage of

10:33

the newest AI defensive techniques or

10:34

software development techniques will on

10:36

balance be more vulnerable to a more

10:39

capable offensive actor the flip of that

10:41

is the question which I know a lot of

10:43

people worry about which is the security

10:44

of the AI Labs themselves yeah it is

10:47

very very very valuable for another

10:50

state to get the latest open AI

10:53

system and you know the people at these

10:58

companies and I've talked to them about

10:59

this on the one hand know this is a

11:00

problem and on the other hand it's

11:03

really annoying to work in a truly

11:05

secure way I've worked in the SK for the

11:07

last four years a secure room where you

11:09

you can't bring your phone and all of

11:10

that that that is annoying there's no

11:12

doubt about it I yeah how do you feel

11:14

about the vulnerability right now of AI

11:16

Labs yeah I worry about it and I think

11:18

there a hacking risk here I also you

11:20

know if you hang out on the right right

11:21

San Francisco house party they're not

11:23

sharing the model but they are talking

11:24

to some degree about the techniques they

11:26

use and the like which have tremendous

11:27

value I do think the case to come back

11:30

to this kind of intellectual through

11:31

line of this is National Security

11:34

relevant technology maybe world changing

11:36

technology that's not coming from the

11:38

offices of the government and doesn't

11:40

have the kind of government imperat of

11:42

security requirements and that shows up

11:44

in this way as well we uh in the

11:46

National secur memorandum the

11:47

president's side tried to Signal this to

11:49

the labs and tried to say to them we as

11:51

US Government want to help you in this

11:54

Mission this was signed in October of

11:56

2024 so there wasn't a ton of time for

11:58

us to to to build on that but um I think

12:00

it's a priority for the Trump

12:02

Administration and I can't imagine

12:04

anything that is more nonpartisan than

12:06

protecting American companies are

12:07

inventing the future there's a dimension

12:10

to this that I find people bring up to

12:12

me a lot is

12:13

interesting is that that processing of

12:15

information so compared to you know spy

12:19

games between the Soviet Union and the

12:21

United States we all just have a lot

12:24

more data now we have all the satellite

12:27

data we I mean obviously will not Eaves

12:29

drop on each other but obviously we

12:31

Eaves drop on each other and have all

12:32

these kinds of things coming in and I'm

12:35

told by people who know this better than

12:36

I do that there's just a huge choke

12:38

point of human beings and their you know

12:41

currently fairly rudimentary programs

12:42

analyzing that data and that there's a

12:45

view that what it would mean to have

12:48

these truly intelligent systems that are

12:50

able to inhale that and do pattern

12:52

recognition is a much more significant

12:54

change in the balance of power than

12:56

people outside this understand yeah I

12:58

think we were pretty public about this

13:00

and the president signed a national

13:01

security memorandum uh which is

13:03

basically the National Security

13:05

equivalent of an executive order that

13:06

says this is a fundamental area of

13:09

importance for the United States I don't

13:11

even know the amount of satellite images

13:12

that the United States collects every

13:13

single day but it's a huge amount and we

13:15

have been public about the fact that we

13:17

simply do not have enough humans to go

13:19

through all of this satellite imagery

13:21

and it would be a terrible job if we did

13:23

and there is a role for AI uh in going

13:28

through uh these images of of hotpots

13:31

around the world of Shipping Lines and

13:32

all that and analyzing them in an

13:34

automated way and surfacing the most

13:36

interesting and important ones for human

13:38

review and I think at one level you can

13:41

look at this and say uh well it doesn't

13:44

software just do that and I think that

13:45

that some level of course is true at

13:47

another level you could say the more

13:49

capable that software the more capable

13:51

the automation of that analysis the more

13:54

intelligent Advantage you extract from

13:56

that data and that ultimately leads to a

13:58

better for the United States I think the

14:01

first and second order consequences of

14:03

that are also

14:05

striking one thing it implies is that in

14:08

a world where you have strong AI the

14:12

incentive for spying goes up because if

14:16

right now we are choked at the point of

14:18

we are collecting more data than we can

14:19

analyze well then each marginal piece of

14:21

data we're collecting isn't that

14:23

valuable I think that's basically true I

14:25

think there's two counterveiling aspects

14:27

to it the first is uh you you need to

14:31

have it I firmly believe you need to

14:32

have rights and protections that that

14:34

hopefully are pushing back and saying no

14:36

there's there's key kinds of data here

14:37

including data on your own citizens that

14:40

and in some cases citizens of Allied

14:41

Nations that you should not collect even

14:43

if there's an incentive to collect it

14:44

and for all of the flaws of the United

14:47

States intelligence oversight process

14:49

and all the debates we could have about

14:50

this that I think is fundamentally more

14:52

important for the reason you suggest in

14:54

the era of of tremendous AI systems how

14:56

frightened are you by the National

14:57

Security implications of all this

14:59

which is to say that the possibilities

15:02

for surveillance States so Sam Hammond

15:05

who's a economist at the foundation for

15:07

American innovation he had this piece

15:08

called 95 thesis on AI and one of them

15:11

that I think about a lot is he makes

15:12

this point that a lot of laws right

15:17

now if we had the capacity for perfect

15:21

enforcement would be constricting like

15:24

extraordinarily constricting right laws

15:26

are written knowing that

15:29

human labor is scarce and you know and

15:32

and there's this question of what

15:33

happens when the surveillance state gets

15:35

really good right what happens when AI

15:39

makes the police state a very different

15:40

kind of thing than it is now you know

15:43

what happens when we have like you know

15:45

Warfare of endless drones right I mean

15:47

the company Ander has become like a big

15:50

you know you hear about them a lot now

15:51

they have a they have a relationship I

15:53

believe with open AI um uh Palante in a

15:56

relationship with anthropic right we're

15:58

about to see a real change in this in a

16:02

way that I think is from the National

16:04

Security side frightening and and there

16:06

I very much get why we don't want China

16:07

way ahead of us like I get that entirely

16:11

but just in terms of the capacities it

16:12

gives our own

16:14

government how do you think about that I

16:17

would decompose essentially this

16:18

question about Ai and autocracy or the

16:20

surveillance however you want to Define

16:21

into two parts the first is the China

16:24

piece of this how does this play out in

16:25

a state that is truly in its bones in

16:29

autocracy and and doesn't even make any

16:30

pretense

16:32

towards democracy and the like and I

16:34

think we could probably agree pretty

16:35

quickly here this this makes very

16:39

tangible of something that you know is

16:42

probably core to the aspirations of

16:43

their society of like a level of control

16:46

that only an AI system could help uh

16:48

bring about that I just find terrifying

16:51

as an aside I think there's there's a

16:52

saying in both Russian and Chinese

16:54

Something Like Heaven is high and the

16:56

emperor is far away which is like

16:57

historically even in those autocracies

16:59

there was some kind of space where the

17:02

the state couldn't intrude um because of

17:04

the scale and the the breath of the the

17:07

nation

17:08

and it is the case that in those

17:10

autocracies I think AI would would make

17:12

the force of government power worse then

17:14

there's a more interesting question in

17:15

the United States basically War

17:16

relationship between Ai and and

17:17

democracy and I think I share some of

17:21

the the discomfort here there have been

17:23

thinkers historically who who have said

17:25

you know part of the ways in which we

17:27

revise our laws are people break the

17:29

laws and and there's a space for that

17:31

and I think um there is a a humanness to

17:34

our justice system that uh I wouldn't

17:37

want to lose and to the enforcement of

17:39

justice that I wouldn't want to lose and

17:41

we task the Department of Justice and uh

17:44

running a process and thinking about

17:45

this and coming up with principles for

17:48

the use of AI in criminal justice I

17:50

think there's in some cases advantages

17:52

to it like cases are treated alike uh

17:55

with the with the machine but also I

17:57

think there's tremendous risk of bias

17:59

and discrimination and so forth U

18:00

because the systems are flawed uh and in

18:02

some cases because the systems are uh

18:04

ubiquitous and I I do think there is a

18:06

risk of a fundamental encroachment on

18:09

rights from the widespread unche use of

18:11

AI uh in the law enforcement system that

18:13

we should be very alert to and that I as

18:15

a citizen um have grave concerns about I

18:18

find this all makes me incredibly

18:21

uncomfortable and one of the reasons is

18:24

that there is

18:27

a what's WR to put

18:30

this it's like we are summoning an ally

18:33

right we are trying to build an alliance

18:35

with another uh like an almost

18:37

interplanetary Ally and we like we are

18:39

in a competition with China to make that

18:41

Alliance but we don't understand the

18:43

Ally and we don't understand what it

18:45

will mean to let that Ally into all of

18:47

our systems and all of our planning as

18:49

best I understand it every company

18:51

really working on this every government

18:52

really working on this believes that in

18:54

the not too distant future you're going

18:56

to have much better and faster and

18:58

dominant decision-making Loops by being

19:01

able to make much more of this

19:03

autonomous to to the AI right once you

19:05

get to the what we're talking about as

19:06

AGI you want to turn over a fair amount

19:08

of your decision-making to it so we are

19:11

rushing towards that because we don't

19:13

want the other guys to get their first

19:15

without really

19:17

understanding what that is or what that

19:19

means it seems like a like a potentially

19:22

historically dangerous thing that AI

19:24

reached maturation at the exact moment

19:28

that that the US and China are in this

19:30

like luidi trap style race for

19:33

superpower dominance that's a pretty

19:36

dangerous set of incentives in which to

19:39

be creating the next turn in

19:44

Intelligence on this planet yeah there's

19:46

a lot to unpack here so just go in order

19:48

but basically bottom line I think I in

19:51

the white house and now post White House

19:53

greatly share a lot of this discomfort

19:56

and I think part of the appeal for

19:59

something like the export controls is it

20:01

identifies a choke point that can

20:03

differentially slow the Chinese down

20:05

create space for the United States to

20:07

have a lead ideally in my view to spend

20:10

that lead on safety and coordination and

20:13

not rushing ahead um including again

20:15

potentially coordination with the

20:16

Chinese while not exacerbating this arms

20:20

race Dynamic I would not say that we

20:23

tried to race ahead in applications to

20:25

National Security so part of the

20:27

National Security memorandum is a pretty

20:29

lengthy kind of description of what

20:31

we're not going to do with AI systems

20:33

and a whole list of prohibited use cases

20:35

and then high impact use cases and

20:37

there's a governance and risk you're not

20:39

in power anymore well that's a fair

20:41

question now they haven't repealed this

20:42

the Trump Administration has not

20:43

repealed this but I do think it's fair

20:45

to say that um for the period while we

20:48

had power the foundation we were trying

20:50

to build with AI we were trying we were

20:52

very conent to the dynamic you were

20:53

talking about a race to the bottom on

20:55

safety and we were trying to to guard

20:57

against it even as as we try to assure a

20:59

position of us preeminence is there

21:00

anything to the the the concern that by

21:04

treating China as such a such an

21:06

antagonistic competitor on this who we

21:08

will do everything including export

21:10

controls on Advanced Technologies to

21:12

hold them back that we have made them

21:15

into a more intense competitor I mean

21:17

there is

21:18

a I do not want to be naive about the

21:22

Chinese system or the ideology of the

21:24

CCP like they want strength and

21:26

dominance and to see the next era be a

21:28

Chinese era so maybe there's nothing you

21:29

can do about this but it is pretty damn

21:34

antagonistic to try to choke off the

21:38

chips for the central technology of the

21:41

next era to the other biggest country I

21:45

don't know that it's pretty pretty

21:46

antagonistic to say we are not going to

21:48

sell you the most advanced technology in

21:49

the world that does not in itself that's

21:52

not a declaration of war um that is not

21:55

even self a declaration of a Cold War I

21:57

I think it is just saying this

21:58

technology is incredibly important do

22:00

you think that's how they understood it

22:02

this is more academic than you want but

22:03

my my uh you know academic research when

22:05

I started as a professor was basically

22:07

on the the the cities trap or what in

22:09

Academia would call a security dilemma

22:10

of how Nations misunderstand each other

22:12

so I'm sure the Chinese and United

22:13

States misunderstand each other um at

22:16

some level in this area but I

22:18

think the plain reading of the facts is

22:20

that not selling chips to them I don't

22:21

think is a declaration but I don't think

22:23

they do misunderstand us I mean maybe

22:24

maybe they see it differently but I I

22:27

think you're being a little look I'm

22:28

aware of how politics in Washington

22:30

works I've talked to many people during

22:31

this I've seen the turn towards a much

22:33

more confrontational posture with China

22:35

I know that Jake Sullivan and and

22:37

President Biden you know wanted to call

22:39

this strategic competition and not a new

22:41

Cold War and and I get all that I think

22:43

it's true and also we have just talked

22:46

about and you did not argue the point

22:48

that our dominant view is we need to get

22:51

to this technology before they do I

22:54

don't think they look at this like oh

22:55

you know like nobody would ever sell us

22:56

the top technology I think they

22:58

understand what we're doing here to some

23:00

degree I don't want to trigger with this

23:01

I'm sure they do see it that way on the

23:03

other hand we set up a AI dialogue with

23:07

them and you know I flew Geneva and met

23:08

them and and we tried to talk to them

23:10

about AI safety and the like so I do

23:12

think uh in a area as complex as AI you

23:15

can have multiple things be true at the

23:17

same time I don't regret for a second uh

23:20

the export controls and I think frankly

23:22

we we are proud to have done them when

23:24

we did them because it has helped ensure

23:26

that here we are a couple years later we

23:28

retain the edge in AI for as good as and

23:30

talented as deep seek is what made deep

23:32

seek such a a shock I think to the

23:34

American system was here's a system that

23:37

appeared to be trained on much less

23:38

compute for much less money that was

23:41

competitive at a high level with our

23:43

Frontier

23:44

systems how did you understand what deep

23:47

seek

23:49

was and what assumptions it required

23:52

that we rethink or don't yeah let's just

23:54

take one step back so we're tracking the

23:55

history of deep seek here so we'd been

23:57

watching deep seek in the white house

23:59

since November of 23 or thereabouts when

24:01

they put out their first coding system

24:03

um and there's no doubt that deep seek

24:05

Engineers are extremely talented and

24:08

they got better and better of their

24:09

systems throughout 2024 we were hardened

24:12

when their CEO said I think the biggest

24:13

impediment to what deep seek was doing

24:15

was not their inability to get money or

24:17

talent but their inability to get

24:18

Advanced chips clearly they still did

24:20

get some chips that they some they

24:21

bought legally some they smuggled uh so

24:24

it seems and then in December of 24 they

24:26

came out with a system called version

24:28

three deep seek version three which

24:30

actually I think is one that should have

24:31

gotten the attention um it didn't get a

24:33

ton of attention but it did show they

24:34

were making strong algorithmic progress

24:37

in basically making systems more

24:38

efficient and then in January of 25 they

24:41

came out with a system called R1 r1's

24:43

actually not that unusual no one expect

24:44

that to take a lot of computing power

24:46

just is a reasoning system that um

24:48

extends the underlying um V3 system

24:52

that's a lot of nerd speak the key thing

24:54

here is when you look at what deeps has

24:55

done I don't think the media hype around

24:57

it was warrant

24:58

and I don't think it changes the

24:59

fundamental analysis of of what we are

25:01

doing they still are constrained by

25:03

computing power we should tighten the

25:05

screws and continue to constrain them

25:07

they're smart their algorithms are

25:08

getting better but so are the algorithms

25:10

of us companies and uh this I think

25:12

should be a reminder that uh the ship

25:14

controls are important China is a worthy

25:16

competitor here and we shouldn't take

25:18

anything for granted but I don't think

25:19

this is the a time to say the sky is

25:21

falling or the fundamental scaling laws

25:22

have broken where do you think they got

25:24

their performance increases from they

25:26

have smart people there's no doubt about

25:27

that we read their papers they're

25:28

they're smart people who are doing

25:30

exactly the same kind of algorithmic

25:32

efficiency work that companies like

25:34

Google anthropic and open AI are doing

25:36

one common argument I heard on the left

25:38

Lena Khan made this this point actually

25:40

in in our in our Pages was that this

25:43

proved our whole Paradigm of AI

25:46

development was wrong that we were

25:47

seeing we did not need all this compute

25:49

we were seeing we did not need these

25:50

these giant mega companies that this was

25:52

showing a way towards like a

25:54

decentralized almost solar Punk version

25:56

of of AI development

25:59

and that in a sense the American system

26:01

and and Imagination been captured by

26:04

like these three big companies but what

26:06

we're seeing from China was that that

26:09

wasn't necessarily needed we could do

26:11

this on less energy fewer chips less

26:14

footprint do you buy that I think two

26:17

things are true here the first is there

26:19

will always be a frontier or at least

26:21

for the foreseeable future they'll be a

26:22

frontier that is computationally and

26:24

energy um intensive and our company we

26:28

want to be at that Frontier those

26:30

companies have very strong incentive to

26:32

look for efficiencies and they all do

26:34

they all want to get every single L

26:36

juice of insight from each squeeze of

26:39

computation they will continue to need

26:40

to push the frontier and I don't think

26:42

there's a free lunch waiting in terms of

26:44

they're not going to need more computing

26:45

power and more energy for the next

26:46

couple years and then in addition to

26:48

that there'll be kind of slower

26:50

diffusion that lags the frontier where

26:52

algorithms get more efficient fewer

26:54

computer chips are required less energ

26:55

is required and that we need as America

26:58

to to win both those competitions one

27:00

thing that you see around the export

27:01

controls the AI firms want the export

27:04

controls when deep seek rocked the US

27:07

Stock Market it rocked it by making

27:09

people question nvidia's long-term worth

27:11

and Nvidia very much doesn't want these

27:12

export controls so you at the White

27:14

House where I'm sure at the center of a

27:15

bunch of this lobbying back and forth

27:18

how do you think about this every AI

27:21

chip every Advanced AI chip that gets

27:23

made will get sold the market for these

27:25

chips is extraordinary right now I think

27:27

for the fore future so I think our view

27:30

was uh we put the export controls on but

27:32

Nvidia didn't think that the stock

27:34

market didn't think that we put the

27:35

export controls on the first ones in

27:37

October 2022 Nvidia stock has 10 xed

27:39

since then I'm not saying we should do

27:41

the export controls but I want you to

27:42

take the strong version of the argument

27:43

not the weak one I don't think nvidia's

27:46

CEO is wrong that if we say Nvidia

27:50

cannot export its top chips to China

27:53

that that in some mechanical way in the

27:55

long run reduces the market for

27:56

invidious chips sure I think I think the

27:58

dynamic is right I'm not suggesting

28:00

they're you know if they had a bigger

28:01

Market they could charge on the margins

28:03

more that's obviously the supply and

28:04

demand here I think our analysis was um

28:07

considering the importance of these

28:09

chips and the AI systems they make to US

28:11

National Security this is a trade-off

28:12

that's worth it and Nvidia again has

28:15

done very well since we put the export

28:17

controls out and I agree with that the B

28:19

Administration was also generally

28:21

concerned with AI safety I think it was

28:22

influenced by people who care about AI

28:24

safety and that's created a kind of

28:28

backlash from the

28:31

accelerationist or what gets called the

28:32

accelerationist side of this debate so I

28:35

want to play a clip for you from Mark

28:37

andreon who is obviously very

28:39

significant ventor capitalist a top

28:41

Trump adviser uh describing the

28:43

conversations he had with the Biden

28:44

Administration on AI and and how they

28:47

sort of radicalized him in the other

28:49

direction Ben and I went to Washington

28:51

in May of 24 and you know we couldn't

28:54

meet with Biden because as it turns out

28:56

at the time nobody could meet with Biden

28:58

uh but we were able to meet with senior

29:00

staff and so we we met with very senior

29:02

people in the White House you know in

29:03

the in the inter core um and we

29:05

basically relate our concerns about Ai

29:07

and their response to us was yes the

29:09

national agenda on AI as we will

29:11

Implement in the B Administration and in

29:12

the second term is we are going to make

29:14

sure that AI is going to be only a

29:17

function of two or three large companies

29:19

we will directly regulate and control

29:20

those companies um there will be no

29:22

startups this whole thing where you guys

29:24

think you can just like start companies

29:25

and write code and release code of the

29:26

internet like those days are over that

29:28

not happening the conversation he's

29:30

describing there was that were you part

29:31

of that conversation I met with him once

29:33

I I don't know exactly but we I met with

29:35

him once would that characterize the

29:37

conversation he had with you he talked

29:39

about concerns related to startups and

29:42

competitiveness and the like my view on

29:44

this as you look at our record on

29:46

competitiveness it's pretty clear that

29:49

we want a dynamic ecosystem so the AI

29:52

executive order which president Trump

29:53

just repealed had a pretty lengthy

29:55

section on competitiveness the Office of

29:58

Management and budget management memo

30:00

which governs how the US government buys

30:01

AI had a whole carve out in it or a call

30:04

out in it saying we want to buy from a

30:06

wide variety of vendors the chips and

30:08

science act has a bunch of things in

30:10

there about competition so I think our

30:12

view on competition is pretty clear now

30:14

I do think there are structural Dynamics

30:16

related to scaling laws on the like that

30:17

will force things towards uh big

30:19

companies that I think in any respects

30:22

we were we were pushing against uh and I

30:25

think I think the track record is pretty

30:26

clear of us and petition I think the

30:29

view that I understand him as arguing

30:31

with which is a view I've heard from

30:32

people in the safety Community but not a

30:34

view I ne heard from the B

30:35

Administration was it you will need to

30:39

regulate the frontier models of the

30:42

biggest labs when it gets efficiently

30:44

powerful and in order to do that you

30:46

will need there to be controls on those

30:49

models you just can't have the model

30:51

weights and everything floating around

30:52

so everybody can run this on you know

30:54

their home laptop I think that's the T

30:58

he's getting it it gets it a bigger

30:59

attention we'll talk about in a minute

31:00

but which is how much to regulate this

31:03

incredibly powerful and fast changing

31:06

technology such that on the one hand

31:08

you're keeping it safe but on the other

31:09

hand you're not overly slowing it down

31:11

or making it impossible for smaller

31:13

companies to comply with these new

31:15

regulations as they're using more and

31:17

more powerful systems yeah so in the

31:19

president's executive order we actually

31:21

tried to wrestle with this question and

31:22

we didn't have an answer when that order

31:23

was signed in October of 23 and what we

31:26

did on the open source question in

31:27

particular and I think we should just be

31:29

precise here at the risk of being

31:30

academic again what we're talking about

31:32

open Weight Systems can you just say

31:34

what what weights are in this context

31:36

and then what open weights are yeah so

31:38

when you have the training process for

31:40

an AI system you run this uh algorithm

31:42

through this huge amount of

31:44

computational power that processes the

31:46

data the output at the end of that

31:48

training process Loosely speaking and I

31:50

stress this is the loosest possible

31:52

analogy they are roughly akin to the the

31:54

strength of connections between the

31:56

neurons and your brain and in some sense

31:58

you could think of this as the the raw

32:01

AI system and when you have these

32:04

weights one thing that some companies

32:05

like meta and deep seek choose to do is

32:07

they publish them out on the internet

32:09

which makes them we call them openweight

32:11

systems I'm a huge believer in the open

32:14

source ecosystem many of the companies

32:15

that publish the weights for their

32:17

system do not make them open source they

32:18

don't publish the code and the like so I

32:20

don't think they should get the credit

32:21

of being called open source systems at

32:22

the risk of being pedantic but open

32:24

Weight Systems is something we thought a

32:26

lot about in 23 and 24 and we sent out a

32:29

a pretty wide ranging um request for

32:32

comment from a lot of FK for a lot of

32:34

folks we got a lot of um comments back

32:37

and what we came to in the report that

32:38

was published in July or so of 24 was

32:42

there is not evidence yet to constrain

32:45

the openweight ecosystem that the

32:46

openweight ecosystem does a lot for

32:48

Innovation and the like which I think is

32:49

manifestly true but that we should

32:51

continue to monitor in this as the

32:52

technology gets better basically exactly

32:54

in the way that you described so we're

32:55

talking here a bit about the the sort of

32:57

race Dynamic and and the safety Dynamic

33:01

when you were getting those comments not

33:03

just on the open weight models but also

33:04

when you were talking to the heads of

33:06

these labs and people were coming to you

33:09

what did they want what would you say

33:11

was like the consensus to the extent

33:13

there was one from AI world of what they

33:16

needed to get there quickly and also

33:21

because I know that many people in these

33:22

labs are worried about what it would

33:24

mean if these systems were UNS safe what

33:26

was what you would describe as a ensus

33:28

on safety I mentioned before this this

33:32

this core intellectual Insight of this

33:34

technology for the first time maybe in a

33:36

long time is a revolutionary one not

33:39

funded by the government and its early

33:41

incubator

33:42

days that was the theme from the labs

33:45

which is was sort of a like don't you

33:47

know we're inventing something very very

33:49

powerful ultimately it's going to have

33:51

implications for the kind of work you do

33:53

in National Security the way we organize

33:55

our society and more than any kind of

33:59

individual policy

34:01

request they were basically saying like

34:03

get ready for this the one thing that we

34:05

did that could be the closest thing we

34:07

did to any kind of Regulation there's

34:08

one action which was after the labs made

34:11

voluntary commitments to do safety

34:14

testing we said you have to share the

34:16

safety test results with us and you have

34:18

to help us understand where the

34:19

technology is going and that only

34:21

applied really to the top couple Labs

34:23

the labs never knew that was coming

34:26

weren't all thrilled about it it when it

34:28

came out so the notion this was kind of

34:29

a a regulatory capture that we were

34:31

asked to do this is simply not true but

34:34

I in my experience never got you know

34:37

discret individual policy lobbying from

34:39

the laps I got much more this is coming

34:41

it's coming much sooner than you think

34:44

make sure you're ready to the degree

34:45

that they were asking for something in

34:47

particular it was maybe a corollary of

34:50

that of we're going to need a lot of

34:52

energy and we want to do that here in

34:54

the United States and it's really hard

34:56

to get the power here in the United

34:57

States but that is has become a pretty

34:59

big question if this is all as potent as

35:01

we think it will be and you end up

35:03

having a bunch of the data centers

35:05

containing all the model weights and and

35:07

and everything else in a bunch of uh

35:11

like Middle Eastern Pro States because

35:14

they hpthe speaking hypothetically

35:16

because they will give you huge amounts

35:18

of energy access in return for just at

35:21

least having some purchase on this AI

35:24

World which they don't have the internal

35:25

engineering talent to be competitive in

35:27

but maybe can get some of it located

35:28

there and then there's some technology

35:31

ex right like there is something to this

35:33

question yeah and and this is actually I

35:36

think an area of of bipartisan agreement

35:37

which we can get to but this is

35:39

something that we really started to pay

35:40

a lot of attention to in 20 later part

35:43

of 23 and most of 24 when it was clear

35:45

this was going to be a ball neck and in

35:47

the last week or so in office President

35:49

Biden signed a AI infrastructure

35:51

executive order which has not been

35:53

repealed which basically tries to

35:55

accelerate the power development and the

35:57

perming of power and data centers here

35:59

in the United States basically for the

36:01

reason that you mentioned now as someone

36:03

who truly believes in climate change and

36:06

environmentalism and clean power I

36:08

thought there was a double benefit to

36:09

this which is that if we did it here in

36:11

the United States it could catalyze the

36:13

clean energy transition and like and

36:15

these companies for a variety of reasons

36:17

in general are willing to to pay more

36:19

for clean energy and on things like

36:21

geothermal and the like our Hope was we

36:24

could catalyze that development and bend

36:26

the cost curve and have companies be the

36:28

early adopters of that technology so

36:30

we'd see a win on the climate side as

36:31

well so I I would say there is a there

36:34

are Waring cultures around how to

36:36

prepare for for AI and I sort of

36:38

mentioned AI safety and and Ai

36:40

accelerationism and GD Vance just went

36:42

to the sort of big AI Summit in Paris

36:45

and I'll play a clip of what he

36:47

said I'm not here this morning uh to

36:50

talk about AI safety which was the title

36:53

of the conference a couple of years ago

36:55

I'm here to talk about AI opportunity

36:58

when conferences like this convene to

37:00

discuss a cuttingedge technology often

37:03

times I think our response is to be too

37:06

self-conscious too risk averse but never

37:09

have I encountered a breakthrough in

37:10

Tech that so clearly calls us to do

37:13

precisely the opposite now our

37:15

Administration the Trump Administration

37:17

believes that AI will have countless

37:19

revolutionary applications and economic

37:21

in Innovation job creation National

37:24

Security Health Care Free expression and

37:27

Beyond

37:28

and to restrict its development now

37:30

would not only unfairly benefit

37:32

incumbents in the space it would mean

37:35

paralyzing one of the most promising

37:37

Technologies we have seen in Generations

37:40

what do you make of

37:42

that so I think he is setting up a

37:44

dichotomy there that I don't quite agree

37:46

with and the irony of that is if you

37:49

look at the rest of his speech which I

37:50

did watch there's actually a lot that I

37:52

do agree with so he talks for example I

37:54

think he's got four pillars in the

37:55

speech one's about centering the

37:56

importance of workers ones about

37:58

American uh preeminence and like those

38:00

are entirely consistent with the actions

38:03

that we took and the philosophy that I

38:04

think the administration uh of which I

38:06

was a part espoused uh and and that I

38:09

certainly believe in so far as what he

38:11

is saying is that safety and opportunity

38:12

are in fundamental tension then I

38:14

disagree and I think if you look at the

38:16

history of technology and Technology

38:19

adaptation the evidence is pretty clear

38:21

that the right amount of safety um

38:24

action unleashes opportunity and in fact

38:26

unleashes speed so one of the examples

38:28

that uh we studied a lot and talked to

38:31

the president about was the early days

38:33

of railroads and in the early days of

38:35

railroads there were tons of accidents

38:36

and crashes and deaths and people were

38:39

not inclined to use railroads as a

38:41

result and then what started happening

38:43

was safety standards and safety

38:45

technology um block signaling so that

38:47

trains could know when they were in the

38:49

same area uh air brakes so that trains

38:51

could break more efficiently uh

38:53

standardization of train track widths

38:55

and gauges and the like and this was not

38:58

always popular at the time but with the

39:00

benefit of hindsight it is very clear

39:02

that that kind of uh technology and to

39:05

some degre policy development of safety

39:07

standards made the American railroad

39:09

system in the late 1800s and I think

39:11

this is a pattern that shows up a bunch

39:13

throughout the history of technology to

39:15

be very clear it is not the case that

39:17

every safety regulation every technology

39:19

is good and there certainly are cases

39:20

where you can overreach and you can slow

39:22

things down and choke things off but I

39:23

don't think it's true that there's a

39:24

fundamental tension between safety and

39:26

opportunity it's interesting because I I

39:28

don't know how to get this point of

39:30

Regulation right I think the

39:31

counterargument to to uh vice president

39:35

Vance is

39:36

nuclear so nuclear power is a technology

39:40

that both held extraordinary promise

39:44

maybe still does and also you could

39:46

really imagine every country wanting to

39:47

be in the lead on but the series of

39:51

accidents which most of them did not

39:53

even have a particularly significant uh

39:56

body count y were so frightening to

39:58

people that the technology got regulated

40:02

to the point that certainly all of

40:03

nuclear's Advocates believe it has been

40:06

largely strangled in the crib from what

40:07

it could be the question then is when

40:09

you look at the actions we have taken on

40:11

AI are we strangling in the crib and

40:14

have we taken actions that are akin to

40:16

I'm not saying that we've already done

40:17

it I'm saying that look if these systems

40:19

are going to get more powerful and

40:21

they're going to be in charge of more

40:22

things things are both going to go wrong

40:23

and they're going to go weird it's not

40:24

possible for it to be otherwise right to

40:26

roll out some something this new in a

40:29

system as complex as human society and

40:31

so I think there's going to be this

40:32

question of what are the regimes that

40:35

make people feel comfortable moving

40:37

forward from those kinds of moments yeah

40:39

I think that's a profound question I

40:40

think what we tried to do in the Biden

40:42

Administration was set up the kind of

40:45

institutions in the government to do

40:47

that in as cleare eyed tech-savvy way as

40:49

possible again with the one exception of

40:51

the safety test result sharing which

40:53

some of the CEOs estimate cost them one

40:56

day of employee work we did not put any

40:58

anything close to regulation in place we

41:00

created something called the AI safety

41:02

Institute purely National Security

41:04

focused cyber risk bio risks AI accident

41:06

risks uh purely voluntary and that has

41:09

relationships memor of understanding

41:11

with anthropic with open AI even with

41:13

xai Elon company and basically I think

41:16

we saw that as an opportunity to bring

41:19

AI expertise into the government to

41:21

build relationship between public and

41:22

private sector in a voluntary way and

41:25

then as the technology develops it will

41:26

be up to

41:27

now the Trump Administration decide what

41:29

they want to do with it I think you are

41:31

quite diplomatically understating though

41:34

what's a a genuine disagreement here and

41:36

what I would say Vance speech was

41:37

signaling was the arrival of a different

41:40

culture in the government around AI

41:42

there's been an AI safety culture where

41:45

and he's making this point explicitly

41:46

that we have all these conferences about

41:48

what could go wrong and he is saying

41:51

stop it yes maybe things could go wrong

41:54

but instead we should be focused on what

41:55

could go right and and I would say

41:56

frankly this this is like the Trump musk

41:59

which I think is some ways the right way

42:00

to think about the administration their

42:02

generalized view if something goes wrong

42:04

we'll deal with a thing that went wrong

42:05

afterwards right but what you don't want

42:08

to do is move too slowly because you're

42:10

worried about things going wrong better

42:12

to break things and fix them then have

42:15

moved too slowly in order not to break

42:17

them I think it's fair to say that there

42:19

is a a cultural difference between the

42:20

Trump Administration and us on on some

42:22

of these things and but I I also you

42:24

know we held conferences on what you

42:26

could with AI and the benefits of AI we

42:28

talked all the time about how you uh

42:31

need to mitigate these risks but you're

42:33

doing so so you can capture the benefits

42:35

and I'm someone who you know reads an

42:37

essay uh like Dar Amad SE of anthropics

42:39

machines of love and grace about the

42:41

upside of AI and says there's a lot in

42:43

here we can agree with and president's

42:45

executive order said we should be using

42:46

AI more um in the executive branch so I

42:49

I I I hear you on the cultural

42:51

difference I get that but I think when

42:53

the rubber meets the road um we were

42:56

comt with the notion that you could both

42:58

realize the opportunity of AI while

43:00

doing it safely and now that they are in

43:02

power they will have to decide how do

43:03

they translate vice president Vance's

43:06

rhetoric into a governing policy and and

43:08

my understanding of their executive

43:09

order is they've given themselves six

43:11

months to figure out what they're going

43:12

to do and I think we should judge them

43:13

in what they do let me ask about the

43:15

other side of this because what I liked

43:16

about Vance's speech is I think he's

43:18

right that we don't talk enough about

43:21

opportunities but more than that we are

43:23

not preparing for opportunities so if

43:26

you imagine that will have the effects

43:29

and possibilities that its backers and

43:33

and Advocates hope one thing that that

43:35

implies is that we are going to start

43:37

having a much faster pace of the

43:40

discovery or proposal of Novel drug

43:43

molecules a very high promise the idea

43:46

here from people I've spoken to is that

43:48

a should be able to ingest an amount of

43:49

information and build sort of modeling

43:52

of diseases in the the human body that

43:54

that could get us a much much much

43:55

better drug Discovery pipeline

43:57

if that were true then you can ask this

43:59

question well what's the choke point

44:01

going to be and our drug testing

44:03

pipeline is incredibly cumbersome it's

44:06

very hard to get the animals you need

44:08

for trials very hard to get the human

44:10

beings you need for trials right you

44:11

could do a lot to make that faster to to

44:14

prepare it for a lot more coming in and

44:17

this is true in a lot of different

44:19

domains right education Etc I think it's

44:22

pretty clear that the choke points will

44:25

become the difficulty of doing things in

44:27

the real world and I don't see Society

44:31

also preparing for that right we're not

44:32

doing that much on the safety side maybe

44:34

because we don't know what we should do

44:35

but also on the opportunity side you

44:38

know this question of how could you

44:39

actually make it possible to translate

44:42

the benefits of the stuff very fast

44:44

seems like a much richer conversation

44:46

I've seen anybody seriously having yeah

44:48

I I think I I basically agree with all

44:49

of that I think the conversation when we

44:51

were in the government especially in 23

44:53

and 24 uh was starting to happen we

44:57

looked at the the clinical trials saying

44:58

I you've read about healthcare for

45:00

however long I don't claim expertise on

45:01

Healthcare but it does seem to me that

45:03

we want to get to a world where we can

45:06

take the the breakthroughs including

45:08

breakthroughs from AI systems and

45:09

translate them to Market much faster

45:11

this is not a hypothetical thing it's

45:13

worth noting I think quite recently

45:15

Google came out with I think they call

45:16

the co- scientist Nvidia and the arc

45:18

Institute which does great work um had

45:21

the most impressive biod design model

45:24

ever that that has a much more detailed

45:26

understanding of uh biological molecules

45:28

a group called future house has done

45:30

similarly great work in science so I

45:32

don't think this is a hypothetical I

45:32

think this is happening right now and I

45:34

agree with you that there's a lot that

45:36

can be done institutionally and

45:37

organizationally to get the federal

45:39

government ready for this I've been

45:41

wandering around Washington DC this week

45:42

and talking to a lot of people involved

45:45

in different ways in the Trump

45:46

Administration or advising the Trump

45:48

Administration different people from

45:49

different factions of you know what what

45:52

I think is the modern right I've been

45:55

surprised how many people

45:58

understand either what Trump and musk

46:01

and Doge are doing or at least what it

46:02

will end up allowing as related to AI

46:05

including people I would not really

46:06

expect to hear that from not Tech right

46:08

people but what they basically say is

46:12

there is no way in which the federal

46:15

government as constituted six months ago

46:17

moves at the speed needed to take

46:20

advantage of this technology either to

46:21

integrate it into the way the government

46:22

works or for the government to take

46:24

advantage of what it can do that we are

46:26

too cumbersome to endless inter agency

46:30

processes too many rules too many

46:33

regulations you have to go through too

46:35

many people that if the whole point of

46:37

AI is that it is this unfathomable

46:39

acceleration of cognitive work the

46:42

government needs to be stripped down and

46:44

rebuilt to take advantage of it and like

46:48

them hate them what they're doing is

46:51

stripping the government down and

46:52

rebuilding it and maybe they don't even

46:54

know what they're doing it for but one

46:55

thing it will allow is a kind of

46:57

creative destruction that you can then

46:59

begin to insert AI into at a more ground

47:02

level do buy that it feels kind of

47:04

orthal from what I've observed from Doge

47:06

I mean I I think Elon is someone who

47:08

does understand what AI can do but I

47:10

don't know how starting with usaid for

47:12

example prepares the US government to

47:16

make better AI policy so I guess I don't

47:19

buy it that that is the the motivation

47:21

for doge is there something to the

47:22

broader argument and and I will say I do

47:24

buy not the argument about Doge which

47:26

sort of make the same point you just

47:28

made what I do buy is that I know how

47:31

the federal government works pretty well

47:33

and it is too slow to modernize

47:35

technology it is too slow to work across

47:38

agencies it is too slow to radically

47:41

change the way things are done and take

47:43

advantage of things it could be

47:44

productivity

47:45

enhancing I I couldn't agree more I mean

47:48

the existence of my job in the White

47:49

House the White House special advisor

47:51

for AI which David sax now is and I uh

47:53

had this job in 2023 existed because

47:55

President Biden said very clearly

47:57

publicly and privately we cannot move at

47:59

the typical government Pace we have to

48:01

move faster here I think we probably

48:03

need to be careful and you know I'm not

48:05

here for stripping it all down but I

48:07

agree with you we have to move much

48:08

faster so another major part of Vice

48:11

President Vance's speech was signaling

48:14

to the

48:15

Europeans that we are not going to sign

48:17

on to complex multilateral negotiations

48:20

and regulations that could slow us down

48:23

and that if they passed such regulations

48:25

anyway in a way that we believe was

48:27

penalizing our AI companies we would

48:31

retaliate how do you think about the

48:34

differing position the new

48:35

Administration is moving into VV Europe

48:37

and its approach its broad approach to

48:39

Tech

48:40

regulation yeah I think the honest

48:42

answer here is we had conversations with

48:45

Europe as they were drafting the EU AI

48:47

act but at the time that I was in the

48:51

eui Act was was still kind of nent and

48:55

the ACT had passed but a lot of the

48:57

actual details of it had been kicked to

48:59

a process that my sense is still

49:01

unfolding So speaking of slow moving I

49:03

bureaucracies uh exactly exactly so

49:06

maybe this is a failing on my part I did

49:08

not have particularly detailed

49:09

conversations with the Europeans Beyond

49:11

a general kind of articulation of our

49:12

views they were respectful uh we were

49:15

respectful but I think it's fair to say

49:17

we were taking a different approach than

49:18

they were taking and uh we were probably

49:21

in so far as safety and opportunity are

49:23

a dichotomy which I I don't think they

49:24

are a pure dichotomy uh we were were we

49:27

were ready to move very fast in the

49:28

development of AI one of the other

49:30

things that Vance talked about and that

49:31

you said you agreed with is making AI

49:35

pro-worker what does that mean it's a

49:37

it's a vital question I think we

49:39

instantiated that in a couple of

49:41

different principles the first is that

49:43

AI in the workplace uh needs to be

49:46

implemented in a way that is respectful

49:47

of workers and the like and I think um

49:49

one of the things I know the president

49:51

thought a lot about was you it is

49:54

possible for AI to make workplaces worse

49:56

and in a way that is dehumanizing and

49:59

degrading and ultimately destructive for

50:01

workers so that is sort of a first

50:03

distinct piece of it that I don't want

50:05

to neglect the second is I think we want

50:07

to uh have ai deployed across our

50:10

economy in a way that increases workers

50:13

agencies and capabilities and I think we

50:15

should be honest that there's going to

50:16

be a lot of transition in the economy as

50:18

a result of AI you can find Nobel Prize

50:21

wi economists who will say it won't be

50:22

much you can find other folks who will

50:24

say it'll be a ton I tend to lead

50:26

towards the it's going to be a lot side

50:27

but I'm not a labor Economist and uh the

50:30

line that that vice president Vance used

50:32

is the exact same phrase that President

50:34

Biden used which is give workers a seat

50:36

at the table um in that transition and I

50:38

think that is a fundamental part of what

50:40

we're trying to do here and I presume

50:42

what they're trying to do here so I've

50:43

sort of heard you beg off on this

50:44

question a little bit by saying you're

50:45

not a labor Economist uh I will say the

50:47

I'm not a labor Economist you're not I

50:49

will promise you the labor Economist do

50:50

not know what to do about AI yeah you

50:52

were the top adviser for AI yeah you

50:55

were at the nerve center of the

50:56

government's information about what is

51:00

coming

51:01

if this is half as big as you seem to

51:06

think it is it's going to be the single

51:09

most disruptive thing to hit labor

51:12

markets ever given how compressed the

51:15

time period in which it will arrive is

51:16

right it took a long time to lay down

51:18

electricity it took a long time to build

51:21

railroads I I think that is basically

51:23

true but I want to push back a little

51:24

bit so I do think we are going to see a

51:25

dynamic in which

51:27

it will hit parts of the economy first

51:29

it will hit certain firms first but it

51:31

will be an uneven distribution acoss I

51:33

think it will be uneven and that's I

51:34

think what will be destabilizing about

51:36

it in part right if it were just even

51:39

then you might just come up with an even

51:41

policy to do something about it sure but

51:43

precisely because it's not even and it's

51:45

not going to put I don't think 42% of

51:47

the labor force out of work overnight

51:49

no let me give you an example the kind

51:51

of thing I'm worried about and I've

51:52

heard other people worry about there are

51:57

a lot of

51:59

19-year-olds in college right now

52:02

studying

52:05

marketing there are a lot of marketing

52:07

jobs that AI frankly can do perfectly

52:11

well right now as we get better at

52:14

knowing how to direct I mean one of the

52:16

things exist slow this down is simply

52:18

firm adaptation yes but the thing that

52:19

will happen very quickly is you have

52:21

firms that are built around AI right

52:23

it's going to be harder for the big

52:24

firms to integrate it but what you're

52:26

going to have is new entrance who are

52:27

built from the ground up with their

52:30

their their organization is built around

52:32

you know one person overseeing these

52:34

like you know seven systems and so you

52:36

might just begin to see Triple the

52:38

unemployment among marketing

52:41

graduates I'm not convinced you'll see

52:44

that in software Engineers because I

52:45

think AI is going to both you know take

52:47

a lot of those jobs it also create a lot

52:49

of those jobs because there's going to

52:51

be so much more demand for software but

52:53

you could see it happening somewhere

52:54

there there's just a lot of jobs that

52:57

are doing work behind a

52:59

computer and as companies

53:03

absorb machines that can do work by the

53:05

computer for you that will change their

53:08

hiring you must have heard somebody

53:10

think about this you guys must have

53:11

talked about this we did talk to

53:13

economists and and try to texture this

53:15

debate uh in 23 and 24 I think the trend

53:18

line is even clearer now than it was

53:20

then I think we knew this was not going

53:21

to be a 23 and 24 question frankly to do

53:24

anything robust about this is going to

53:25

require Congress and was just not in the

53:27

cards at all so it was more of a an

53:29

intellectual exercise than it was a

53:31

policy polies begin as intellectual

53:33

exercises yeah I think I think that's

53:35

fair um I think the advantage to AI that

53:39

is in some ways a countervailing force

53:41

here is that it will increase the amount

53:43

of agency for individual people so I do

53:46

think we will be in a world in which the

53:47

19-year-old or the 25-year-old will be

53:49

able to use a system to do things they

53:50

were not able to do before and I think

53:53

in so far as the thesis we're batting

53:56

around here is that intelligence will

53:58

become a little bit more commoditized

54:00

what will stand out more in that world

54:02

is agency and the capacity to do things

54:05

or initiative and the like and I think

54:07

that could in the aggregate lead to a

54:09

pretty Dynamic economy and the economy

54:11

you're talking about of small firms and

54:14

uh Dynamic ecosystem and robust

54:16

competition I think unbalanced at an

54:17

economy scale is not in itself a bad

54:19

thing I think where I imagine you and I

54:22

agree and and maybe vice president Vance

54:24

as well agree is we need to make sure

54:25

that for individual workers and classes

54:27

of workers they're protected in that in

54:29

that transition I think we should be

54:30

honest that's going to be very hard um

54:32

we have never done that well I I

54:34

couldn't agree with you more like in a

54:36

big way Donald Trump is president today

54:38

because we did a shitty job on this with

54:40

China this is a kind of like the reason

54:42

I'm pushing on this is that we have been

54:45

talking about this seeing this coming

54:46

for a while and I will say that as I

54:49

look around I do not see a lot of useful

54:51

thinking here and I grant that we don't

54:53

know the shape of it at the very least I

54:55

would like to see some IDE is on the

54:56

shelf for if the disruptions are severe

54:59

what we should think about doing we are

55:02

so addicted in this country to an

55:05

economically useful tale that our

55:08

success is in our own hands it makes it

55:11

very hard for us to react with either

55:13

Compassion or

55:14

realism when workers are displaced for

55:17

reasons that are not in their own hands

55:18

because of global recessions or

55:20

depressions because of globalization

55:23

there are always some people with like

55:25

the agency the creat creativity the and

55:27

they become hyper productive and you

55:28

know look at them why aren't you them

55:30

but definitely I know you're not saying

55:32

that but it's very hard that's such an

55:34

ingrained American way of looking at the

55:37

economy that we have a lot of trouble

55:40

doing you know always should do some

55:41

retraining right is are all these people

55:42

going to become

55:44

nurses right I mean there are things

55:46

yeah I can't do like how many plumbers

55:47

do we need I mean more than we have

55:48

actually but does everybody move into

55:50

the trades what were the intellectual

55:52

thought exercises that all these smart

55:55

people at the White House believe this

55:56

was coming you know what were you saying

55:59

so I I think yes we were thinking about

56:01

this question I think we knew it was not

56:03

going to be a question we were going to

56:04

confront in the president's term I think

56:07

it was we knew it was a question that

56:08

you would need Congress for to do

56:10

anything about I think I in so far as

56:13

what you're expressing here seems to me

56:14

to be like a deep dissatisfaction with

56:16

the available answers I Shar that I

56:18

think a lot of us shared that you know

56:20

you can get the the usual stock answers

56:22

of a lot of retraining I I share your

56:25

sort of doubts that that is the answer

56:27

you probably talk to some silicon value

56:28

Libertarians or something and they'll

56:29

say or or Tech folks and they'll say

56:31

well Universal basic income I think I

56:33

believe and I think the president

56:34

believes there's a kind of dignity uh

56:36

that that work brings and and doesn't

56:38

have to be paid work but that there

56:40

needs to be something that people do

56:41

each day that that gives them meaning so

56:44

in so far as what you were saying is

56:45

like there's a you have a discomfort

56:47

with where this is going on the labor

56:49

side uh speaking for myself I I share

56:52

that I don't know the shape of it I

56:54

guess I would say more than that a

56:56

discomfort with the quality of thinking

56:58

right now sort of across the board but

57:00

but I will say on the Democratic side

57:02

right because I have you here as a

57:03

representative of the past

57:04

administration I have a lot of

57:08

disagreements with the Trump

57:09

Administration to say the least but you

57:12

know I do understand the people who say

57:13

look Elon Musk David Sachs Mark Andre JD

57:18

Vance at the very highest levels of that

57:20

Administration or people have spent a

57:21

lot of time thinking about Ai and have

57:23

like considered very unusual thoughts

57:25

about it and I think sometimes Democrats

57:27

are a little bit institutionally

57:28

constrained for thinking unusually I

57:30

take your point on the export controls I

57:32

take your point on the exact orders the

57:34

the I safety

57:35

Institute but to the extent Democrats

57:38

are the party want to be imagine

57:40

themselves to be the party of the the

57:42

working class and to the extent we've

57:44

been talking for years about the

57:45

possibility of Aid driven

57:48

displacements yeah when things happen

57:50

you need Congress but you also need

57:51

thinking that becomes policies that

57:53

Congress do so I guess I'm trying to

57:56

like was this not being talked about

57:58

there were no meetings there were no you

58:00

guys didn't have Claud write up a brief

58:02

of of options well you know we

58:04

definitely didn't have CLA up a brief

58:05

because we had to get over government

58:06

use of AI uh see but that's like itself

58:09

uh slightly damning yeah I mean I I

58:12

think you know Esra I I agree that the

58:15

government has to be more forward

58:16

leaning on basically all of these

58:18

Dimensions it was my job to push the

58:20

government to do that and I think on

58:21

things like govern use AI we we made

58:23

some um progress so I don't think anyone

58:27

from the B Administration less of all me

58:28

is coming out and saying we solved it I

58:31

think what we're saying is like we were

58:32

building a foundation for something that

58:34

is coming that was not going to arrive

58:35

during our time in office um and that

58:37

the next team uh is going to as a have

58:39

to As a matter of American National

58:41

Security and in this case American uh

58:43

economic strength and and prosperity uh

58:46

address I I will say this gets is

58:48

something I find frustrating in the

58:50

policy conversation about

58:51

AI which is you sit down with somebody

58:55

and you start the conversation and like

58:57

the most transformative technology

58:59

perhaps in human history is landing into

59:02

human civilization in a two to three

59:05

year time frame and you say wow that

59:08

seems like a really big deal what should

59:10

we

59:11

do and then things get a little hazy

59:14

right now maybe we just don't know but

59:16

but what I've heard you kind of say a

59:17

bunch of times is like look we have done

59:19

very little to to hold this technology

59:21

back everything is voluntary you know

59:23

the only thing we asked was a sharing of

59:24

safety data you now income the

59:27

accelerationists you know Mark andrewson

59:29

has criticized you guys extremely uh

59:32

straightforwardly is this policy debate

59:34

about anything is it just uh the uh

59:37

sentiment of the rhetoric right like if

59:40

it's so

59:42

big but nobody can quite explain what it

59:45

is we need to do or talk about except

59:47

for maybe export chip controls like are

59:49

we just not thinking creatively enough

59:51

is it just not time like match the kind

59:54

of calm measure tone of the SE second

59:56

half of this with where we started for

59:57

me I think there should be an

59:59

intellectual humility about before you

60:01

take a policy action you have to have

60:03

understand some understanding of what it

60:04

is you're doing and why so I think it is

60:07

entirely intellectually consistent to

60:08

look at a transformative technology draw

60:10

the lines on the graph and say this is

60:12

coming pretty soon without having the

60:14

14-point plan of this is what we need to

60:15

do in 2027 2028 I think chip controls

60:18

are are unique and that this is a

60:19

robustly good thing uh that we could do

60:22

early to to buy the space I talked about

60:24

before but I also think that we tried to

60:26

build institutions like the AI safety

60:28

Institute that would set the new team up

60:30

whether it was us or someone else for

60:31

success in managing the technology now

60:33

that it's them they will have to decide

60:36

as this technology comes on board how do

60:37

we want to calibrate this on regulation

60:39

what are the kinds of decisions you

60:40

think they will have to make in the next

60:41

two years you mentioned the open source

60:43

one I have a guess where they're going

60:44

to land on that but that I think there's

60:46

there's an intellectual debate there

60:47

that is Rich we resolved it one way by

60:49

not doing anything they'll have to

60:51

decide do they want to keep doing that

60:52

ultimately they'll have to answer a

60:54

question of what is the relationship

60:55

between the public sector and the

60:56

private sector is it the case for

60:58

example that the kind of things that are

60:59

voluntary now with the AI safety

61:01

Institute will someday become mandatory

61:03

another key decision is we tried to get

61:05

the ball rolling on the use of AI for

61:07

National Defense in a way that is

61:09

consistent with American values they

61:11

will have to decide what does that

61:12

continue to look like and do they want

61:14

to take some of the safeguards that we

61:16

put in place away to go faster so I

61:17

think there really is a bunch of

61:19

decisions that they are teed up to make

61:21

over the next couple years that we can

61:23

appreciate they coming on the horizon

61:25

without me sitting here and saying I

61:27

know with certainty what the answer is

61:28

going to be in 2027 and then always our

61:30

final question what are three books

61:31

you'd recommend to the audience uh one

61:34

of the books is the structure of

61:35

scientific revolutions uh by Thomas

61:37

this is a book that coined the term

61:39

Paradigm Shift which basically is what

61:41

we've been talking about throughout this

61:42

whole conversation of a shift in

61:44

technology and scientific understanding

61:47

and its implications for society and I

61:48

like how uh in this book which was

61:52

written in the 1960s gives a series of

61:54

historical examples and theoretical

61:56

Frameworks for how do you think about a

61:58

paradigm shift and then another book

62:01

that that has been very valuable for me

62:02

is rise of the Machines by Thomas rid uh

62:05

and that really tells the story of how

62:09

uh machines that were once the play

62:10

things of dorks like me became in the

62:13

60s and the 70s and the 80s uh things of

62:15

National Security importance we talked

62:17

about some of the Revolutionary

62:18

Technologies here the internet

62:20

microprocessors and the like that

62:22

emerged out of this intersection between

62:24

National Security and Tech development

62:26

and I think that history should inform

62:28

the work we do today and then the last

62:30

book is is definitely an unusual one but

62:31

I think is vital and that's a swim in

62:33

the pond in the reain by George Saunders

62:35

and he's this great essayist and short

62:37

story writer and novel writer and he

62:40

teaches Russian literature and he in

62:42

this book takes uh seven Russian

62:45

literature short stories and gives a a

62:49

literary interpretation of them and what

62:51

strikes me about this book is he's an

62:54

incredible writer and this fundamentally

62:56

is like the most human endeavor I can

62:58

think of he's taking great human short

63:00

stories and he's giving a a modern

63:03

interpretation of what those stories

63:04

mean and I think when we talk about the

63:06

kinds of cognitive tasks that are a long

63:08

way off for machines I kind of at some

63:11

level hope this is one of them that

63:12

there's something fundamentally human

63:14

that we alone can do uh I'm not sure if

63:16

that's true but I hope it's true I'll

63:18

say I had him on the show for that book

63:20

it's one of my favorite ever episodes

63:21

people should check it out Ben be Canan

63:23

thank you very much thanks for having me

63:27

[Music]

Interactive Summary

The video features a discussion with Ben Buchanan, a former special advisor for AI in the Biden White House, regarding the rapid advancement of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and its implications for national security, labor, and policy. Buchanan emphasizes that the next few years will see extraordinarily capable AI systems, positioning this period as a critical event horizon. Key topics include the importance of maintaining US technological preeminence to avoid ceding power to China, the role of export controls on advanced chips, the challenges of preparing the federal government for rapid technological change, and the ongoing debate between AI safety initiatives and accelerationist perspectives.

Suggested questions

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