"LTV Is the Most Overrated Metric in Ecommerce" | Zarak Khan Interview
744 segments
We must bring Let's go.
>> Let's go.
>> Khan inside of this show. He is the
newly minted founder of Panther
Research, okay? And what is Panther
Research, you ask? I shall tell you.
Retention customer intelligence focused
on fashion and luxury brands, okay? He's
got a Substack, which uh I think uh
putting out some very interesting things
over there tied to everything Zarakh is
doing at Panther Research. We must bring
him inside of the show. Everybody,
welcome to the one and only Zarakh
founder of Panther Research. GET IN
HERE, ZARAKH.
GET IN, ZARAKH.
>> LET'S GO.
>> ZARAKH, appreciate you making time to
join us, brother. Welcome to the show.
>> No, absolutely. It's a pleasure to be
here. Thank you for having me.
>> Man, tell us uh tell us what's going on
with you and where are you? Zarakh, I
you know, whenever I hear of you,
whenever I hear of you, I'm like, this
guy's like double-07, you know,
international man of mystery. Where is
he? What's he doing, you know? In
stealth mode, building and scaling.
What's what's going on with you as of
late, sir?
>> No, absolutely. Well, you know, I like
to uh preserve my mystique, but right
now I'm at my uh home in London, uh
which is where I do a lot of my work
recently. And um no, absolutely. Just
just a little bit quickly on Panther
Research cuz you cuz you asked.
>> Yeah.
>> As most people know, I've been media
buying for the last 10 years, and
particularly within the scope of
fashion, luxury, and design led brands.
And I've been looking at the
macroeconomic situation. I've been
looking at how ads have been doing and
what I want to do. And I think
or I thought that the genuine next step
along this progression would be to go,
number one, upmarket, and then also uh a
different point in the funnel. I saw
what was happening with ads and creative
velocity and all these Andromeda
changes, and while it's still very
fruitful, um
I think a lot of what comes down to
fashion and luxury is not necessarily
how much you test and how much output
you have, uh but more so what you decide
not to do and where to hold back on. And
I think the post-purchase experience
alongside the intelligence layer and the
research is really where brands can make
an everlasting impact, especially to
hedge against these rising and
ever-changing ad costs and these
introduction to new platforms. I think
now is more of a time than ever uh to
really nail down that post-purchase
experience and more so for fashion and
luxury brands,
um not necessarily mimic, but bring that
in-person experience that people are so
used to online.
>> I like that. Smart.
>> I'd love to talk about, you know, one of
your main thesis, which is the this
email generates 25% of our revenue trap.
I would love for you to dive into that
and how you are thinking about this now
in 2026.
>> Yeah, absolutely. Well, you know,
it's a case of attribution and then it's
a case of messaging and paying yourself
today instead of tomorrow. Um number
one, we have to decide, of course, if
that revenue attribution could have
happened outside of the campaign
naturally and if it's actually
incremental or if it's just attributing.
Um
and then on top of that, it's also about
what you kind of put out. So, I'll kind
of give you give you an example. A lot
of what retention has typically been is
we need to have this many flows, this
many campaigns, and
sending SMS, which as part of the funnel
is important, but it's very much
dependent on the category and the
customer type. Um if it's a
utility-based product like um
a phone charger or it's something like
uh a dishwasher, you know, maybe you can
um
depend a little bit more on that
messaging. But I think for fashion and
luxury, what's super important is the
compounding of the brand equity. And you
might be able to put out a message out
tomorrow and say we have a 25% markdown.
And I'm sure revenue-wise it's going to
be very fruitful, but it comes at the
expense of the brand's positioning,
which I think is super important. And
you have to kind of decide, do we want
to do this now or do we want to invest
in some more long-term brand building
exercises,
which allow us to perhaps sell at full
price and develop a customer base which
isn't so dependent on offer and markdown
and last-minute opportunities? Um of
which a lot of I think typical DTC
brands do is
there's so many offers and opportunities
and promotions that it very much
desensitizes the customer along the way
to not take them seriously. And then we
must ask, what are the long-term
implications of your brand not being
taken seriously? What does that do for
your enterprise value, your potential
exit, um and your your off-season?
>> Wow.
>> You know,
there's a lot there. There's a lot.
>> I'd say that. 100%.
>> I I I think something that you've hit on
at the front, Zarik, is
I think should be
underlined more in the context of just
our ecosystem. A lot of times when
people say retention, what they think is
email alone. You know, it's just like
retention equals email. It's almost like
they're interchangeable interchangeable
terms. But that's that's that's not the
case. And something that we
covered earlier this year, we had on
Alex Greifeld who who brought this up.
I'd love your thoughts on
uh this this thought that sometimes our
our LTV, you might say, our retention
not just not just based on like what I
sold them or the emails I sent, but but
what I have to offer them,
merchandising, what else inside of my
store can I can I bring to them that
they potentially have and message and
frame that in a winsome way? I mean,
would you agree?
>> You know, I think about LTV as probably
one of the most overrated metrics in any
economy. I'll tell you why. It comes
down to a couple of things. The most
important one is the payback period. If
I acquire a customer and then in the
next 4 years they repurchase twice.
>> Mhm.
>> Theoretically, their LTV has gone up,
but I think what's more important is
purchasing frequency and the cadence in
between those.
Uh also, there's a financial obligation
on the brand. There might be some LTV
down the line, but can the brand fund
that in the interim period when the
customer isn't buying? And then it's
also dependent on what makes the
customer come back, right? You know, if
we're going to throw a sale at them
every November, they're going to come
back, sure. Or if we do something on
Easter, if we do a markdown, they'll
come back. But really, the question is,
how do we get them to come back on their
own accord? And a lot of brands, I
think, put it down to the product
itself. They assume the product if the
product is good, the customer will come
back. A good product alone will not
carry this relationship forward by any
means.
Um and if it's not promotional
messaging, you know, there's so many
alternatives that a brand can do. I
think some of the more played out ones
which have been positioned as
alternatives is early access. Um early
access really just gives you something
24 hours before the wider public gets
it. And if there's plentiful inventory,
then it really means nothing. Um and
then the other one which I think is a
little played out is this
behind-the-scenes look. I think,
particularly with luxury, um there's a
lot of mystique and you don't really
want to see the process or you don't
want to lead with like the material
composition. If I'm spending a thousand
dollars on a sweater, I don't want to be
told how great the materials are. It's
like a baseline expectation.
But we could, for example, take um
ways that we could not necessarily
cross-sell the product, but let's let's
give you an example. I release a new
collection and it's a series of fine
leather goods.
And then you might have someone buy a
wallet and the question is, okay, well,
they bought the wallet. Now, let's try
and sell them the jacket. When actually
what they could be doing is trying to
get people to really immerse themselves
and buy themselves into the collection
itself and maybe we sell them
um a card holder or maybe we sell them a
bag, a backpack, something within that
same family of products. One thing I've
seen which is really good on the women's
side is um and funnily enough, it's
actually Coach which has done this
great. There's this $95 bag charm. It's
the cherry. You know,
>> Yeah.
>> heard about it, right?
>> it.
>> And you think, all right, this is a
pretty low AOV product and it's not that
interesting, but what it does is it
really gives a customer a reason to
immerse themselves in that ecosystem. If
you're going to get the bag charm, you
need the bag. And then
>> Why not get the bag?
>> then you get the tote. And it's a great
way to really personalize things. I
think luxury is always kept a bit of a
distance. And even this transpires into
technology. You can
customize an Android phone far more than
you can customize an iPhone.
And we're shifting into this mindset
where maybe you don't get the new iPhone
every year and brands are becoming a
little more open to you uh adding your
own twist on things. And I think the bag
charm is a really great low entry way of
doing that as opposed to begging the
customer to come back. Maybe we let them
put their own creative twist on it and
buy in incrementally on their own.
>> Interesting.
>> Wow. Dropping bars. I'd love to talk a
little bit about your thoughts on SMS
and how brands should be doing SMS
because you've stated basically that SMS
is often email with worse manners. And I
would love how how you're thinking about
that because it is a
it it's a it's a pretty big thing to
text somebody. It it's a pretty high
leverage to text somebody. I'd love love
your thoughts on it.
>> Well, yeah, it's interesting, right? I
think SMS the way we know it is very
automated in the sense where if I get an
email about something, I might also get
a text about it as well. And what's
great about SMS is the delivery and the
intimacy of the level of communication.
There's a million things in my email
inbox, some things I pay more attention
to than others. Of course, I pay a lot
of attention to your emails. Um but then
on SMS, um it's really uh
down to just my friends and family and
then maybe a few business associates.
So, when I get the text, I'm going to
see it. The problem is is it can be
often a little bit violating and it can
really turn someone off in terms of how
they feel about the brand.
Um if I'm buying a brand and then
they're texting me about a sale, I mean,
this is a tactic that Domino's is using.
And now that's what
>> Sure.
>> a cool brand is trying to do. But,
funnily enough, luxury has been doing
SMS much longer than it's been around as
like a standalone SAS that you can
attach to your e-commerce store. It's
the manner in which it's done. If you're
giving me a message
which is personal and unique to me, then
I don't mind it coming through a more
intimate
uh channel of communication.
Um and I'll give you an example. For
example, if you buy
uh from Louis Vuitton or Chanel or even
Ralph Lauren,
maybe if you buy three or four times in
store, what you'll see happens is the
associate or your representative will
text you things which are very specific
to you. Ralph Lauren, I'll get a text
from an advisor, but it will be
particularly around a line and a series
of products which they know I'm
interested in. Um Ralph Lauren even do a
private sale which only their VICs can
do, and it's a very generous offer of
30%. There's no public markdown, it's
just what's in the store. So, when I get
a message like
that's [clears throat] very
uh unique to myself, I don't mind it
being intimate. Where I think brands go
wrong is they do general messaging and
then they love the idea of SMS because
it delivers X amount, 70% of people open
it, and it hypothetically creates like
$2 million in revenue. Um
>> But I wouldn't personally do that and
that's what I mean. It's okay for
generic commerce, but when brand equity
is at play, you have to think of
something that's much more unique and to
the person. It's not so much about
looking at it from a channel point of
view and you have to look at how it sits
in that wider relationship with the
customer.
>> I love that. You know, I find Zarik
we we've had a couple of folks
on the show who swim in the waters of
higher fashion and luxury. And I feel
like what I feel like what you are
underlining here
has come out in general, but I love the
specifics you're putting to it. It seems
like it seems like luxury plays on it
plays in a little bit of a different
field. Like there are some things that
apply
like you're talking about.
Can you do SMS? Yeah, you probably can,
but there's like a specific way to go
about it. More of a concierge type
level, personal reach out of you know,
if you sell only happens in the store,
you know, and it's coming from a person
who already knows what I'm interested
in. I feel like this comes has come up a
few times over the year and it seems
like luxury
it's it's a little bit of a different
game than a lot of us are playing in
general consumer
commerce. Is that is that fair?
>> Certainly, it's definitely front end
heavy on the investment to get stuff
like that done. I think if you ask most
people, would you want to sell a product
for a $70 or do you want to sell one for
$300? They'll immediately go for the
$300 cuz there is quote and quote more
margin and room for acquisition costs in
there. It couldn't be further from the
truth. You know, there's so many
exercises you have to do to have that
product desirable at that price point
and build a name for yourself. And it
could be setting up stores which only
200 people touch for the first 3 years
or it could be investing in PR and and
celebrity plays which won't pay off at
all. And if they do, it's going to take
years to go into. In many ways, and not
to get into the real estate debate, it's
it's kind of like buying a house versus
renting a house. And it's going to take
a long time for buying it to be um
more valuable on paper, or at least
that's how it goes in in a typical
market. But, you know, we we did this
study a little while ago. We we
subscribed to 120 brands, all fashion
and luxury. And we could see what
tactics they were using, how much
pressure selling they were doing, and
really, there's no correlation with how
many messages you send and what the
tactics and the pressure is. But, what
has kind of stood out amongst all of
this is, look, the consumer gets smarter
every year. And they know when you're
being presented with something valuable
and when you're not. So, if I spend
$5,000 at a brand, and then they start
texting me personally, I feel like it's
earned. But, if we look at Skims, for
example, which has great creative
direction, you know, Kanye West got the
creative director or the head designer
of Balenciaga to lead Skims on a
creative way. But, what I kind of
quickly found out was
I was immediately graduated into a
loyalty program, interesting cuz I never
bought anything, I never engaged with
any of the emails. That's one thing we
did, we didn't engage with any of the
emails cuz we don't want to influence
the behaviors.
Yet, I was put into like a VIP segment.
And then I got asked to download an app.
And it's all led by offer, and people
aren't stupid. They know they didn't do
anything to get into the VIP program,
and therefore how they value that VIP
program is little to not at all.
And it can really make the program
collapse on itself um when you try these
like quick tactics. And I think in
luxury, these quick tactics come to die
very quickly.
>> Wow. I mean, that's huge. Could you
Could you talk a little bit about some
of that data set where you that you're
having? Who Who are some of the best
players within that space that you found
out were kind of sprinkling to the top?
Maybe one, two, or three that you were
like, "These people are doing an
unbelievable job."
>> Yeah, absolutely. Well, I think what's
what the biggest thing is is
there's obviously the brands which do
things really well cuz they're extremely
commercially successful, the Diors, the
Pradas. But then there's also huge
brands like the DVF which have
absolutely ruined their email program,
or Norma Kamali, or even somewhere
mid-level like Abercrombie where they're
sending on average sometimes two emails
a day.
Um so there is no correlation between
enterprise value and how good and dialed
in their email program is. What I did
see a correlation in quite heavily was
how seriously they take their creative
direction and their messaging. And we
saw a lot of brands really only emailed
once a week, twice a week, sometimes
every month. And I'm sure they were
widely more effective than the brands
pressure selling three, four times a
week.
W- We also saw is there wasn't a huge
focus on
very interactive design. I think a lot
of email agencies will say, "Look at
these great Figma templates we made." A
lot of the greatest brands have
templates I could have probably made in
less than 5 minutes. But it was about
the contents of the message, and none of
these had a block of text which would
take you more than 20 seconds to read.
It was really how the products were
photographed, how they were
merchandised, and also um how they flow
into each other. Prada had a recycled
gold campaign where they were like
recycling gold and creating jewelry out
of it. And it wasn't just one email to
announce the collection, it was a slow
drip of
exposing that collection piece by piece.
Um or if they had like a leather goods
collection, they wouldn't just display,
cuz it was available in I believe four
different colorways, they wouldn't just
display all four of them next to each
other. Instead, they took the most
unique earth brown leather grain they
had and showed all their products in
that one color. So it's small
merchandising tactics, um
but we could very quickly see that there
was a lot of brands where it's like
there's no way I can keep up with these.
Um, but what was also interesting is I
said earlier, I never engaged with these
emails.
Um, so theoretically you would think
after maybe 60-90 days I'd be taken off
a lot of these lists because I'm I'm uh
a dead participant.
>> Yeah.
>> No. You know, maybe I think it was 3% of
the brands actually sunset us away and
everybody else kept paying for us.
>> Keep me forever.
>> [laughter]
>> There's the There's [clears throat] the
cost on your brand from sending these
people messages which they no longer
take seriously, but there's also like
the business cost of not cleaning up
your list.
>> Wow.
>> Wow.
>> Totally agree with that, too.
>> It's interesting. I I can't say I've
ever done a like mass experiment like
this. And this is this is all like part
of your big thrust um at at Panther
Research. Is that right, Zach?
>> No, absolutely. You know, I I think
especially with like the brands we take
on, if they're not already of a large
size, they're very much aspirational to
be one of the ones that we're already
looking at and perhaps even working
with. Um, and it's not because they want
to copy the product or the creative
direction, it's because they want to
copy the strategy. And a lot of these
brands have a really dialed-down
strategy. Um, but what is also quite
prevalent is that it's very unique
because there's so many different
archetypes they go to. You know, two
customers could live in the same city,
both be wealthy, and be of a similar
age, but they have totally different
ideas of what looks cool creatively, and
they have totally different buyer
psychologies. Um, so there is plenty
opportunity, there's just not really
room for a cookie-cutter technique. What
I also think with this type of customer
base is they're much more aligned
creatively and they're much more, um,
tapped in, per se. So, if you try some
of these tactics which might work
selling supplements to a 60-year-old
mom, it's going to absolutely bounce
back on somebody [laughter] who just
walked out of like fashion school who's
going to see right through it. And you
know, these people aren't going to
necessarily publicly complain. They're
just going to silently stop engaging
with the brand. And that's where I think
brands go to die. You know, these ad
costs aren't coming down. They're doing
nothing to monetize it on the back end.
They need to start treating these
existing customers they have as invested
capital. And maybe then they'll get out
of this hole of I'm spending X amount on
ads, I'm making X amount of baseline
revenue. What about the other 80,000
customers I acquired? Where are they?
Well, you know, you're the one who lost
them, buddy.
>> Wow.
>> You know, this is
uh
I think this is an It's a very It's a
fascinating
It's a fascinating corner of commerce
that I think we don't often I I don't
often think about. As you As you talk
about it, I find it very interesting in
the kind of buyer who have a who has a
different buying psychology one from
another. Same age, same city, similar
wealth. I find this very interesting and
very appropriate. Uh and it seems very
fitting for the luxury world, for the
fashion world.
Um you know,
obviously higher purchase price, but a
lot of consideration going into that, a
lot of friendly and brand building. Um
that will that will result hopefully in
money's for everyone. And treating that
that list, that base of customers or,
you know, sign you know, people who have
agreed, you know, to be marketed to,
treating that with with care and
intentionality. That seems very fitting
to me. Sorry, I was cutting you off,
Colin.
>> Oh, good. I I would love your take on
AI now that how it relates to fashion in
2026 because I think there's a world
where these two coexist, but I think
there's also this kind of like judgment
and very much a taste feature that needs
to be involved with AI unless these
fashion brands produce just AI slop,
which is basically unforgivable.
>> No, absolutely. You know, my my view on
AI is that in regards to
parsing data and assisting you with
something, it's pretty exceptional.
There's a lot of work it does which you
just don't want to do and a lot of it is
administrative. But there's a strong
correlation between what's commercially
viable and the effort which goes into
it. So, you know, you can make an AI
image where if it was real, it would
have been a beautiful photo shoot, but
that asset in isolation doesn't really
work because number one,
most people can still kind of see what's
AI and what isn't. Um
but also it's it's a particular industry
where it hasn't been
received with the open arms it may have
been in in tech and in general ATC.
Um
but my personal view on it is from an
operational point of view and a
technical point of view, it's great and
it's great to kind of act as a second
head to think with you. But in terms of
actually producing anything that's
consumer facing,
I think it's less of a matter of is it
there yet and it's more of a matter of
should we be doing this at all.
>> Interesting. That's a great point.
That's a great point. Should you even go
into that lane? That's a great point.
>> And and and I I take you to mean here,
you know, agree, disagree, confirm,
deny. I take you to mean like am I
destroying brand equity by doing so? Am
I causing people to publicly revolt in
Facebook comments [laughter] if they do
or causing people to quietly walk away
in in in the luxury world as you've
described. Is that what you're hitting
on?
>> Absolutely. You know, it's quite funny,
you know, I I actually did have a client
that really wanted to explore AI and the
reason they wanted to explore it in this
use case was we're going to pay a lot of
money for this photo shoot. We want to
see conceptually what that photo shoot
will look like with AI.
And then we produce this content and
they like it so much that they want to
publish it.
I'm actually quite impressed with the
content, and I can't tell it's AI in
this regard. I think it's much more
prevalent when you're doing sketches or
you're doing outdoor shoots, but
something on low exposure with high
flash, it's it's pretty easy to create
it with AI. The safeguard I did when
publishing this as an ad is I put it on
the stories format on Instagram. So, if
you want to comment on it, you can't.
You can only swipe up and go to the
website.
>> [laughter]
>> Okay. Comments is
a huge thing cuz this is an audience
which wants to see what the public is
saying, you know? They want to see does
this have motion? And people go to the
comments, and they can be put off by
people saying this is copying someone or
it's uncool, or they can be put off over
logistical reasons like saying I ordered
this 3 weeks ago and I haven't got it.
You know, sometimes it's best to just
not allow the comments so you can
control your positioning and your image.
And I think the story placement is so
underrated for that. You can't even do
it on Reels. You can comment on Reels.
Story, it's like, look, you can swipe
right or you can swipe up.
>> Wow. [laughter]
A little sauce right there.
A little sauce right there.
A little sauce.
Okay, Zark, man, we
uh we appreciate you making the time to
join us and uh giving us a window into,
you know, retention and and winning uh
for these higher-scale luxury fashion
type brands. A very interesting window
into this world uh that's really a part
of of the e-com and and consumer
ecosystem. And tell us, you know, where
should people find you, follow you, talk
with you? I mean, Panther Research, etc.
Like, give us the whole list of of how,
you know, people should find you and get
involved with you.
>> Hey, if you want to see what I'm up to,
follow me on uh X, and if you want to
give me some money, go to
pantherresearch.com.
>> [laughter]
>> Very straightforward. I love that.
I love that.
All right, go give Zark some money. You
should. He knows what he's doing
especially in
the fashion and luxury world. Man, we
appreciate you making the time to join
us. We look forward to having you back,
brother. See you.
>> Thank you, gentlemen. Signing off.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
Zarakh, founder of Panther Research, discusses strategies for retention, branding, and customer intelligence specifically tailored to the luxury and fashion sectors. He emphasizes shifting away from generic promotional tactics, which can erode brand equity, towards a more curated, high-touch, and personalized customer experience. He also shares insights on the effective use of communication channels like email and SMS, warns against relying solely on LTV as a metric, and provides a nuanced take on implementing AI in creative workflows while maintaining brand prestige.
Videos recently processed by our community