High Inflation Coming? Here Are the Assets I Am Buying Part 2 of 2
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[Music]
at the same time you can get
much higher returns than 10 you can get
20 30
40 50 returns a year investing in the
stock market if
you know how to pick the right stocks if
you know how to pick the stocks of the
fundamentally best companies
and buy them at the right time so that's
what i do for living that's why i teach
my students
so what are the best companies to buy
that will thrive
under inflation that would beat
inflation by a white margin so these are
some of the criterias number one
i focus on businesses that are
pandemic-proof
and recession-proof companies so in
other words even if the pandemic lasts
for 10 more years the companies will
continue
to grow their sales and profits and
their recession-proof so these are
what we call secular growth companies or
defensive companies companies like
amazon
facebook and adobe and salesforce
these are the companies which i invest
in the next thing is this
now again not all companies will do well
under high inflation
companies that do well are those that
are able to raise their
prices of their goods and services
above inflation so in other words if
inflation rises by two percent
the company can raise their products by
four percent
now not all companies can do that only
companies
with high pricing power
and pricing power comes when a company
has got what we call a brand monopoly
like a nike like a ferrari for example
so companies with strong brands
they are able to constantly price their
products higher than inflation
so it doesn't matter how much inflation
there is they will always grow their
sales and profits
in real terms the next thing that is
really important is this
to beat inflation you want to invest in
companies
that require very little capital
expenditure to grow
and maintain their competitive
advantages
and that's why i tend to avoid companies
in manufacturing
in the shipping in construction
in development property development why
because they require the constant
reinvestment of capital and because of
inflation
the capital investment gets higher and
higher they will eat up
are higher sales doesn't make sense so i
want companies where you invest
one time and they've got the brand their
assets are intangible
and they require very little future
investment
so when you invest in great companies
again
you won't just get 10 a year again 10 is
only just buying the index
and idiot can do that but when you live
to pick the right companies you can grow
your investments by
you know 20 30 40 50
a year or even in some is even 100 in
fact if you take a look at my personal
investment portfolio year to date 2021
for the first four months
you can see year to date let me just
show you year to date
i'm up 13.8 percent for the first four
months and for the last one year
i'm up about
110 and this is just one of my many many
portfolios
another portfolio i have is right over
here
so this one again year to date i'm up
about
10.5 percent and for the last one year
this portfolio has grown 91 percent
so like i said if you pick the right
companies you can get
huge returns on average in a year
and it's not just me who can get it all
my students are able to achieve this
because they've
learned the right strategies of value
momentum investing in fact
it's really happy to see a very nice
message from one of my students
over the weekend let me just show that
to you yup so this is one of my telegram
groups and this was sent by um
n right so that's n over there and she
said
uh and by the way she just posted a
portfolio right here
you can see in her portfolio she got
31.44
uh in the last couple of months
and she said last year during the
lockdown i spent time
studying adam's courses my friends and
family said i should have saved my money
instead of
wasting money on costly online courses
because
there are tons of free videos online i
told them i could make
at least fifteen to twenty percent
return but if
but they said that's only for
experienced investors but today
when my portfolio is up 30 and
and now they all ask me to manage their
savings money
right 2020 is still the best year of my
life because i was lucky enough to
discover adam
and had a lot of free time learning from
his courses
so again the best investment you can
make is investing first in yourself
and then investing into assets that can
beat inflation
and to grow your financial wealth
besides businesses the other
asset that beats inflation grows your
wealth would be real estate
so i believe that everyone has to own
businesses
everyone has to own real estate why
because
land prices property values and rental
income
always rise alongside or higher than
inflation especially if you buy high
quality
real estate assets right
so again you can buy physical property
but again if it's beyond your budget to
buy
apartments and all those things you can
buy reits
real estate investment trust so with
reits with a couple of hundred dollars
you can buy
shares in a portfolio of real estate
all around the world and earn rental
income
and so one of the indexes that you can
look at
to represent real estate would be the
dow jones
all read index trust if you take a look
at the last 18 years now i can't go back
more than 18 years because
it started 18 years ago right so since
inception for the last 18 years
the dow jones retrust has returned 10.12
on average a year so it's very much in
part
with the general stock market
another very common asset used to hitch
inflation
would be gold now you can't really buy
physical gold to hitch
inflation it's going to be too
cumbersome right so normally we buy
gold etfs and etf that tracks gold
prices but i'm not really a fan of gold
and the reason is because gold is not a
productive
asset i only like to invest in
productive assets
what does that mean a productive asset
is something that you buy that produces
something in fact to me the intrinsic
value of an
asset what an asset is really worth is
based on what it can produce
so for example if you buy a business or
you
own a business it produces cash flow
which you can use to pay dividends or
retain the earnings in the business
it makes something if you uh own
property
it generates rental income so it makes
something
but if you own a piece of gold gold
doesn't make anything it just
sits there and looks pretty alright so
you can hold gold for
20 30 years at the end of 30 years it's
still a piece of gold
but if you own property for 30 years at
the end of the 30 years you have the
same property
but you also collect all the rental
income over the years
same thing the business so again i only
like productive assets
so when an asset is not productive when
it doesn't make anything
it has no real intrinsic value
in a way so its value is purely
speculative so what goal is worth
is purely psychological it's what people
are willing to pay for it so it's very
much based on
demand and supply so it's very hard to
value goal
in that way so that's one reason i don't
like it the other reason is if you look
at the last
30 years gold has
an average return of 5.1 percent
cagr compounded annual growth rate for
the last 30 years
so comparing with businesses stocks and
real estate
gold's return is half of those returns
now not only does it have less than
those returns
but it has one of the highest
volatilities as well
so if you look at this chart over here
you can see that goal
not only doesn't have the highest
returns but in terms of
standard deviation which is a measure of
volatility it's got the highest
volatility so
i'm not a fan of gold so let's take a
look at how they have performed in
relation to each other so again this is
the last 30 years
and over here you can see right at the
bottom you've got the
again the inflation index the cpi so you
just gotta beat that
so pretty easy goal itself you can see
beats the inflation rate but like i said
i'm not a fan of gold but again holding
gold is better than just holding cash
but beating gold would be the s p 500
index
now the next chart will show you reits
as well and again
this is the last 18 years because the
read index only goes back 18 years and
you can see that
again the all-time winner would be the
smp 500 the 500
biggest companies in the united states
followed by reits which represents real
estate in the u.s
uh gold and finally that all beats
inflation
okay so there you have it these are the
best assets that's going to beat
inflation and build your wealth
over many many generations to come okay
now i
know some of you are thinking right now
wait a minute how about bitcoin
how about cryptocurrency you can't
ignore that you're blasphemous
i've gotta talk about it fine i'll talk
about cryptocurrencies talk about
bitcoin although you guys know i'm not
really a big fan
now sure we can't ignore bitcoin
slash cryptocurrencies in fact uh in the
last one
year bitcoin itself has gone from 8 000
u.s to now
60 000 u.s so that's about what 800
of your money in one year so how can you
not talk about bitcoin
fine i'll talk about it right now like
in everything there are
advantages and disadvantages pros and
cons in any asset
so what are the advantages of bitcoin
obviously number one
crazy price appreciation again 800 in
one year
who doesn't want a piece of that action
so why has bitcoin become
so popular because uh one of the major
arguments is that it's a good
replacement to
fiat currency which is the us dollar the
euro the japanese yen because fiat
currency there's no
backing from gold or anything right so
because of that
central banks can print unlimited
amounts of fiat currency
and they can be devalued over time
whereas for bitcoin
no one can print more bitcoin well
theoretically because it's a finite
number which is 21 million bitcoins
right now there's already 18 million in
circulation so there's another
three more million that can be mined and
once that's dead that's that you can't
have any more bitcoin so
in other words people find it attractive
because there's a limited number of
bitcoins you can't have more bitcoins
versus you can have more us dollars more
euros you can have them more bitcoins
right so supply is limited so as long as
demand goes up
the price should keep going up and
that's the theory behind
the popularity of bitcoin right can't be
devalued by central banks
it's a private decentralized ledger uh
and it's a goal-like alternative asset
to hitch against inflation
so that's what's great about bitcoin no
doubt about it
before buying any asset you can't just
look at
the upside you can look at what's the
downside what are the risks of that
asset
so bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in
general they have risks
the first major risk is that again it's
not a productive asset
just like gold bitcoin it doesn't
produce anything it doesn't make
anything
so because of that cryptocurrencies and
bitcoin has
zero intrinsic value it's got no
intrinsic value
like i said intrinsic value comes
from what the asset can produce if you
own a farm it produces
crops if you own a business it produces
cash flow
if you own real estate it produces
rental income but
bitcoin doesn't make and it doesn't
produce anything so there's no intrinsic
value
and again the only value it has is a
psychological value it is worth
what people are willing to pay for it
and by definition cryptocurrency
and bitcoin they are not really
currencies by strict definition now how
do you define a currency
to be a currency there are two criteria
that must be met number one
it must be a widespread store of value
all right and as of now bitcoin is not
widely adopted as a store of value so
there are people who buy bitcoin to
store their wealth but it's not
widespread and the reason is because of
the huge volatility
as long as volatility is huge you can go
up you know 20
down 30 percent not many big
institutions are willing
to use that as a store of value because
it's too uncertain
the second thing is for to be a currency
it must be a widespread
medium of exchange where you can use it
to buy
you know clothes or buy candy or buy
food and stuff like that sure i mean
now elon musk is saying you can buy a
car with with bitcoin and sure there are
people who are offering that but again
it's not widely adopted think about it
you buy bitcoin not because you want to
use it to buy something else
not really right unless it's not a
cryptocurrency you don't buy bitcoin to
really store your wealth
you buy bitcoin for one reason only
because you're hoping to sell it at a
higher price
so to me it's a purely a speculative
asset
the way i look at it right now so that's
one of the concerns that i have so when
something has got no intrinsic value
you have no idea what it's really worth
and it's really hard to value something
to put a number to
its true intrinsic value i feel
uncomfortable buying something like that
the next thing is this now if bitcoin or
cryptocurrencies
really become widely adopted let's say
one day people are using to buy stuff
people are using it to store their value
is that good maybe not because then it
will it will
threaten governments of the world now
governments of the world
they want a monopoly over currency
once they see that bitcoin becomes a
credible threat it's not yet a threat
but what's
a threat guess what they're gonna do
there's gonna be a high chance
the governments of the world are gonna
ban and outlaw
and confiscate bitcoins you don't think
it's gonna happen
it happened in 1933. in 1933
when the us government decided to get
the us dollar off the gold standard
they confiscated everyone's goal
and if you didn't give your goal to the
government you had to go to prison
this was the executive order by the
president of the united states
on first may 1933. give me all your gold
if you don't
it's ten years imprisonment you know my
great great granddaddy gave me this
newspaper article
i'm just kidding i just got it off the
internet so
it could happen to cryptocurrencies
could happen to bitcoin you never know
the next risk is that bitcoin is a very
highly leveraged asset so a lot of
people around the world who have bought
bitcoin and who are pushing the price
up to astronomical levels they have
actually bought a lot of money
to buy bitcoin so it's very highly
leveraged
although you may not leverage buying
bitcoin so what's the point when an
asset has a lot of leverage behind it
the moment
the bubble bursts and the price drops it
will drop
like a stone and that's why bitcoin is
extremely volatile because of the
the high leverage behind the price
movement
finally again the main argument is that
bitcoin
is scarce the only 21 million bitcoins
you can create more
in theory but here's the thing nothing
is stopping
programmers or other people from
creating alternative
digital currencies to replace bitcoin
now
i'm a firm believer in blockchain
technology i believe that blockchain
is the future but it may not be
eventually bitcoin that becomes the
medium of exchange
there could be future newly evolved
cryptocurrencies
uh in fact created by governments right
digital currencies created by
china or the us that will replace
bitcoin eventually
using the blockchain system so in other
words to me i think the scarcity concept
is an illusion all right new ones can
come along to replace
bitcoin or ethereum in the future so if
bitcoin
really becomes widely adopted in the
future if it really works out let's say
what's the potential upside well let's
do some calculations
currently bitcoin has a market
capitalization of 1.2 trillion so in
other words
you take the price of one bitcoin
multiplied by the number of bitcoins
in total 21 million you get 1.2 trillion
dollars
currently the total market cap of all
the gold in the world
that's been mined is 13 trillion
so currently bitcoin makes up about
roughly about seven percent of the
market cap of gold
so if bitcoin can become the new goal
eventually and it can be a credible
replacement to
goal as an alternative asset let's say
in the future
bitcoin uh will make up 50
of gold's market cap in other words
people around the world will move
50 of what they use to own in gold to
bitcoin if that happens
then bitcoin um
could reach a market cap of
six to about 6.5 trillion all right
so based on 6.5 trillion if you divide
it by 21 million bitcoins
that gives us an upside target of
and seventy five 375 dollars per bitcoin
so at current prices
the upside would be a 500 increase
if everything goes as planned right
but remember when when you invest in
something
don't just think about how much you can
make
you got to think about how much you can
lose what if
happens what if bitcoin doesn't become
widely adopted as a medium of exchange
what if people soon realize that it's
nothing but a big bubble that bursts
what if governments confiscate
all the bitcoins in the world and then
bitcoin what happens then well then
bitcoin could drop
80 to 90 to maybe six to 12
000 from where it is today so people ask
me this question all the time adam
should i buy
bitcoin cryptocurrencies and the answer
is
it depends if you're willing to lose 80
of your money with the hope of making
500
go ahead right so it really depends on
your objectives and your risk tolerance
this is up to you
now for me you guys know that i'm a
chicken i'm a chicken
i rather not make money if i've got a
chance of losing money
you know i'm like that right so i
believe in rule number one never lose
money
rule number two don't forget rule number
one and because of that
i don't invest in bitcoin because i
don't even want the possibility of
losing money
you see when i buy stocks of great
businesses
to me the downside is zero i cannot lose
money on stocks
because when you buy good companies sure
in the short term they could go up they
could go down they could drop thirty
forty percent of short term but in the
long run it always goes up stock market
always goes up because you're buying
companies that are producing goods and
services people always need
goods and services when you buy real
estate it always goes up in the long run
but for bitcoin cryptocurrency there is
a downside
and so because of that yes i have bought
a bid
many years ago i've got some bitcoins
and ethereum just leave it there
like a lottery ticket like a 40 ticket
if it goes to zero i don't really care
but to me it's not an investment it's
just a punt it's a lottery ticket right
but when it comes to investing
my real money my big money you know i
stay away and it's just me
call me a chicken but i know i'll be a
live chicken in 10 or 20 years
so i hope you enjoyed it hope you've
learned something good questions
comment below and i'll see you in the
next video
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Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video provides an overview of strategies to beat inflation through investing in productive assets. The speaker emphasizes focusing on businesses with high pricing power, recession-proof business models, and low capital expenditure requirements. He compares these stocks with real estate and gold, arguing for the superiority of productive assets over speculative ones. Additionally, the speaker discusses cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, noting their speculative nature, lack of intrinsic value, and risks, while explaining why he prefers traditional, productive investment vehicles for his main portfolio.
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