Well, hello and welcome back. [music] I

am Kenny Pulcari and this is Trader Talk

at Yahoo Finance. Today I'm joined by

Stephanie Gild who's the CIO at Robin

Hood and many of you know Ryan Payne who

is the president of Pay Capital

Management and also the host of the pain

pain points of wealth. His points off

the tongue, Kenny.

>> Yeah, right off the tongue. Anyway,

thank you very much for joining me

today. Really appreciate it. There is a

lot going on, right? We're in the middle

of this earning season. This is a a big

week for not only earnings but for the

Fed, for markets, for the economy, uh

because we're going to get hit, you

know, broadside by a bunch of different

things. So, let's talk first about kind

of where you think we're at and then uh

where you think we're at.

>> Great. I think we're in a time period

where expectations have caught up to

some of the numbers like if you look at

the over the last quarter earnings

growth expectations increased by 50% you

know across the board for the S&P 500

>> when estimates grow by that fast in a

quarter and I know it was coming out of

a you know a conflict that was seemingly

over but now seems to be coming back and

forth

>> seemingly not over

>> um that we're you know there I think

that's where you kind of get some like

concerns like our our expectations too

high and I think that's what you're kind

of seeing from day to day in the market.

>> Well, and I think we've seen that over

the last couple of last couple of weeks.

Certainly expectations in the growth se

in the tech sector were obviously are

clearly too high. At least that's kind

of the sense that we got from the market

action.

>> Yeah. No, I think what you're seeing is

not it's not like money is coming out of

the market. It's just rotating, right?

And that's what's interesting because

yeah, I run pretty broadly diversified

portfolios and I mean if you look at the

last month, you've got obviously energy

stocks are crushing it. Um unless you've

been living for today.

>> Except for today. But [laughter] yeah,

but you know or this week.

>> This week, right? You pick the day

really. It's like it's up $10, down $10

in oil. Um you know, financials

obviously have been crushing it. I mean,

they just blew it out at the beginning

of earnings season. Healthcare stocks,

industrial stocks, right? Material

stocks. There you go.

>> So, it's really been a great rotation,

which, you know, I love. I mean, it's

healthy to see that you're seeing money

flow to other parts of the world. And I

think that's a key point, right? When I

talk to clients, people start to get

nervous. You know, they're nervous about

market reaction. They see tech under

pressure. I go, "Listen, this is not

liquidation." Liquidation would be if

you saw them selling everything and

throwing the kitchen sink out the

window. That would be liquidation.

That's not what's happening at all. In

fact, to your point, uh, we're seeing

this, we're seeing money move from these

kind of high growth sexy names, and

we're probably stretching overvalued

>> into more conservative kind of long-term

might be boring. Consumer staples.

There's nothing exciting about consumer

staples yet. Um it's a place where where

investors want to put some money.

>> But I think we're also so we also manage

a diversified portfolio single names um

Robin Hood strategies

>> and um we we also like I think the one

thing that we we kind of underlying

foundation is that there's a there's a

physical nature to what has been growing

and that like you you can't grow AI

without more power. You can't grow AI

without more construction. and you pick

it without materials. And so I think

like sometimes the market forgets that

and then it comes back to it. Forgets

that and comes back to it.

>> Well, I think there's a, you know, it's

funny when you talk about the AI and the

data centers and all the kind of the

angst that builds up around data

centers, right? About what they're doing

to the economy, what they're doing to

the climate, what they're doing to

towns. And I think it's very interesting

because I'm not sure that I would be on

the side that if a data center is

welldesigned and it's in an area of town

that you know like out in the middle of

the country where they're making them

right where they're not disturbing

anything, you're not taking farmland

away, you're not chopping down trees,

just kind of the land, right? Uh I don't

see what the big deal is because if

they're contained, right, the water is

contained that keeps them cool and all

that stuff and it's not drawing on on

those resources. Um, and somehow they

can manage the electricity draw.

>> Yeah.

>> Uh, I I think they'd be a benefit to

communities because it'd bring revenues

in.

>> Yeah. 100%. Yeah. Well, I think also,

right, it's more probably politicized,

practical that what you're hearing that

these data centers are going to be bad,

per se,

>> right?

>> And I know the argument of like, okay,

increases a lot of jobs at first because

you got to build these things and then

where those jobs go later. But also like

what I wonder about is you have this

disproportionate amount of capital being

spent on AI data centers and last time I

looked you have all these other

inefficiencies in the economy like we

need more housing right

>> so you know maybe some of that

construction uh you know employment

should be going towards building houses

because we have like what is it like 2

three million houses short you can

correct me if I'm wrong um you know in

this country right now so I just feel

like there is a little bit of a

misappropriation of capital we look this

in retrospect it seems a little bit like

too much capital may be flowing the same

place

>> well it may But AI, it is the theme,

right? We're in the middle of this

fourth industrial revolution that's

happening. And so I think like

everything it gets caught up.

>> Yeah. I mean, I think the data like you

could end up seeing that there ends up

being like housing growth and stuff like

that around the data centers because it

creates employment. Then you have like

because I think there's people living I

mean I don't know if this is true, but

living in like trailers and stuff like

that nearby the data centers to help

build them. So I think you could end up

having a

>> communities

>> communities built around them. But the

old I do think like the environmental

thing is something we have to be

>> the demand for power because our our

grid is very old.

>> I wrote a piece about that and I'm like

there's our infrastructure is old.

>> Well and that but that's true right

everyone kind of accepts that which is

why it's interesting because you know

Elon Musk if he has his way he's going

to put him in space right so this then

this whole conversation goes away right

if that happens. Yeah. And I I was I

don't remember who I was talking to

recently, so it may not be that helpful,

but I think there we already have some

stuff in space that is like actually I

was talking to a venture capitalist

stuff.

>> Yes, there are still there are already

some things in space that are working

and I but I of course then I start

thinking like who's going up there to

fix it. Um,

>> it feels like the long long game at this

point,

but I feel like, you know, data centers

in space, we're probably a little bit

further away than

>> I think that's one of the things about

this market right now is that like the

the hope and the kind of coolness of

what could be in the future is still

quite long duration. And then when you

come into an environment where

>> oil prices are higher, inflation is

definitely a risk, you're seeing it not

just in oil prices, like then you start

to realize the impact of long duration

investments and the relationship to

interest rates and I think that some of

that is coming through now.

>> All right, so let's get right to it

because it is a big tech week, right?

We're going to get four of the biggies,

Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft. Um,

and the first one out of the gate, I

believe, is Microsoft. So they're going

to be the first one to react to kind of

what we've heard from Apple last week.

the, you know, the the the ramp up in

capex spending and all that stuff that

Microsoft is going to is going to come

out and they're going to have to talk

about their cloud and Azure and all that

stuff. I I don't think they're going to

disappoint at all. In fact, I think

Microsoft I think Microsoft was one of

the names that got thrown out the window

like baby with the batwater. It was down

30 some odd percent.

>> Yes.

>> And I don't like I think it's a huge

buying opportunity.

I mean, I think there will be another

rotation into the Magnificent 7 in

general. Um, and I think like, let's

face it, I don't think Google actually

disappointed. I mean, the revenue is up

24% year-over-year, right?

>> So, it's just like when is Wall Street

going to get over the fact that capital

expenditure is just going to continue to

go higher. Um, and I think right now,

you know, that's maybe a short-term

issue because it's been there the whole

time. Um, but I just think it's coming

to roost this summer, but at some point

they might be like, "Hey, I'm happy with

this continued revenue growth that

you're seeing." And I think Microsoft

might be the only one of the Mag 7 or

the hyperscalers or hyper spenders,

whatever you want to call them, right?

Um that may still have free cash flow.

>> Well, so I guess we're going to find out

on Wednesday right now. Look, it traded

all the way down to 350. I think now

it's trading above 400 again. So it has

rallied some back. And I actually, you

know, listen, to be fair, I own

Microsoft. The firm owns Microsoft. And

you know, I would I would be buying it

on the dip. Like I said, I thought it

was a huge buying opportunity, but we'll

see because the next three or four days

are going to be very key to where this

market goes.

>> Yeah. I mean, obviously Microsoft got

caught up in the whole software, you

know, issue, right? Um and also their

their own models like they, you know,

they kind of failed at that um you know,

their LLM. So, you know, there

>> I don't use it.

>> I like it. It's sufficient for what I

do. I don't think I need to like, you

know,

>> you use the other one. You use cloud or

GPT?

>> I use Gemini because it's free. It's one

of my Google. Yeah. So, I can't actually

hear it, but I think it's sufficient

enough for, you know, a financial guy

like me. I don't think I need the most

sophisticated models, but

>> I Well, so we Yeah. I don't know. I this

is might be where I

>> disagree. [laughter]

>> No, I think I mean

>> feel afraid to disagree.

>> I truthfully like I I do see a

difference when I want to talk to data

with claude versus like using another

>> element. Yeah, I'm just a simpler

simpler data that could explain. Um but

I think there's I do think Microsoft

like the expectations have been low so

they could easily you know beat this

time around and and kind of surprise on

the upside. You are starting to see more

software companies do better in the last

like couple of weeks on and off more so

than the SAS apocalypse time.

>> Um but I I also wonder like what is

their growth

>> well but I but you see that's true

because coming into this earning season

I think the bar was set high. A lot of

us talked about that stocks were priced

to perfection. And so, you know, Goldman

Sachs and UBS came out last week and

talked about just looking at their prime

brokerage business, they can kind of see

where the flows are going and how all

these hedge funds were bailing on large

tech. It wasn't the big wasn't the

places like Fidelity or Wellington or

Capital Research that were bailing. It

was the hedge funds that were bailing.

And that makes then that makes sense

because they're more short-term oriented

than a long-term asset manager. But I

think for I mean I do think free cash

like I don't think it's a bad thing if

the market starts caring about free cash

flow. No, I don't think so.

>> I don't think we should be like, "Oh,

that's like" But I think it's it's

something

>> about profitability, [laughter]

>> but I I actually think it's like a good

idea to think about free cash flow and

not forget about that because

>> the bet is that longer term they will be

positive free cash flow. And if that

feels further in the future or interest

rates are higher and thus like it costs

more, you know, that that the current

value of that is lower, then that's when

it starts to matter. And I I did a whole

deep dive on this um actually looking at

owners free cash flow which takes out

stockbased compensation and it shows you

that some of these mag seven haven't

been positive free cash flow even before

the huge capback spending

>> and then you want to add on their like

their markettomarket gains right because

like I think this happened with Google

like yeah I own some space so that

actually was part of my profit

>> uh this past quarter so

>> yeah there is a lot of skew in there I

totally agree with that but Google's one

who just announced that they had

negative free cash flow this quarter,

right? Because of their huge AI on

Tesla,

>> well, but Tesla's had it.

>> They've never had Tesla's earnings.

>> Amazon has never had it either. So,

>> right. Um, but I think that although

Google on the top line, they crushed it.

But then after you do all that capex

spending, they realize, okay, now

they're getting negative, which I think

was part of the reason I they hit the

sell button. Yeah.

>> But, uh, we've seen that sell the news

reaction

>> really since earning season has started.

Not even just in tech and kind of a lot

of names,

>> you know, but part of that too is this

whole rebound trade is what they're

talking about. So if you're a hedge

fund, you were playing the game of okay,

we're putting SpaceX into a lot of major

indices. So now they have to sell some

of the magnificent seven because they're

just cowboy weight. In fact, I think

Millennium Millennium made like $4

billion on that trade.

>> So of course the institutions made

money, retail investors didn't. Story of

Wall Street. Um, so yeah, I think that's

also part of this kind of summer swoon

is the fact that you've had this big

rebalancing where a lot of money had to

go into SpaceX, right, and come out of

some of these other big names.

>> Well, so let's just talk about that for

a minute because SpaceX

>> is trading where 110 I think it was tra

might be up today, but I think it was I

think on Friday it closed around 110.

>> Sounds about right.

>> Which is down from traded as high as two

and a quarter I think right afterwards.

>> And you know come August 4th they're

going to announce their earnings in

August 6th. then there's going to be up

to 900 million shares that are going to

be eligible to come to the market. Maybe

they don't all don't, right? Maybe they

all do,

>> right?

>> Um, which I think has also been putting

pressure on SpaceX. I wouldn't be

surprised if we saw SpaceX go into the

80s before it bottoms out.

>> Yeah, I totally agree. I I think

>> I think anywhere below 100, I don't own

it yet. I want to own it, but below 100

is when I'd start to

>> I wouldn't touch that that stock, but 10

foot pole, can he? I mean, really think

about it's like is it you can probably

say more correctly than me. It's like 80

times sales. Yes.

>> Okay. The S&P is at three times sales

and that's historically high. Uh I mean

this company is a mature company. It's

been around since 2002.

I think all the good news that we can

imagine that this company's going to

have the next couple years already

priced in the stock.

>> I mean there is a lot of good news

priced in the stock. I I I sort of see

like I I think of SpaceX in the same way

as you think of Tesla.

>> Yeah. And obviously SpaceX has some good

like their their satellite stuff is

very, you know, cash flow uh rich, but

>> to me investing in either of those

companies has always been a lifestyle

decision more than I

>> Well, I never I never bought Tesla. I

don't own a Tesla. I never bought Tesla.

I I had that same sense. But I think

SpaceX is a little bit different, which

is why at some point I'd like to jump

in. I'm not going to it's not going to

it's not going to consume the portfolio

by any stretch, but I'd like to get I'd

like to be exposed. I think

>> I mean I believe in the space theme.

>> Yeah.

>> You know, for the like I believe in it

for the long term. I I but I wouldn't

put all of my space theme money into

space.

>> All right. So, let's talk about Apple

and Amazon. What's because those come

out on Thursday. So, talk about concerns

andor what you're looking for.

>> Well, I think with Apple what's

surprising is it's the best Magnificent

7 stock this year. It's up over 20%

>> trading at all time highs, isn't it?

>> Staple name.

>> I think it is. I think it's a value

stock. I think you're correct about

that. And I think it's trading like a

growth stock. It trades at like 40 times

forward earnings. So, momentum keep

pushing the stock. But this is another

stock where I'm kind of like, why would

you pay? I mean, traditionally, it trade

like 15 times forward earnings

>> where there's not that much innovation.

The iPhone doesn't look that much

different today than it did last couple

years.

>> We know China has some great phones

we'll never see which have caught up

with the technology. the margins like I

just think about the cost of memory and

how that's impacting them and I know

they're raising prices to cover that but

what like they're also trying to get the

government to allow them to buy the

Chinese memory makers because

>> the stock market doesn't care it just

keeps going higher right

>> which is remarkable

>> because I guess cash flow [laughter]

>> I can't justify

>> but I and I agree I would I own Apple

the firm owns Apple but but I'm not

going to chase Apple up here you know

it's all high on buy more but I'm not

I'm certainly not chasing it

>> totally agree What about Amazon? What do

you think about Amazon?

>> I've always struggled with Amazon

because they're it's hard to say like

what is Amazon? They do a lot of

different things, right? Like they have

a consumer retail business now. They're

going to have their own shipping

business. Now that they like the Yeah. I

mean, they've got so many different

things. And I'm like, as soon as I say

like, oh, I don't I don't want to invest

in this company. Someone can give you me

an argument about something like they're

like, well, how many boxes do you get a

day from Amazon? you know, and I'm like,

"Yeah, okay." But I just

>> but I think like personally I've really

struggled with wanting to to wanting to

to invest in this company because one

like their their free cash flow has been

pretty negative,

>> especially when you take stockbased

compensation out of it. Um they do have

investments in, you know, some of the

private companies that have lifted their

um you know, lifted them, but and then

also like just when you Amazon Web

Services, like is that going to grow or

not going to grow in that? I don't I

It's just hard for me to It's like

investing in an old GE where GE did like

a million did a million things.

>> It's hard to measure it for me.

>> I I know, but I don't know. I I think

Amazon tends to be kind of a core

holding for a lot of people.

>> Oh, and it's I mean it's huge in the

S&P. So, of course, like even if you own

a little bit of it, you're underweight

like right you know you're Yeah.

>> No, I agree with that because I think

the the other component to that is

because it's such a big part of the S&P

500 and I think there is still a lot of

retail money out there. We always talk

about money market funds at like $7.8

trillion. Invariably, if that money

comes in the market, a lot's going to go

into the S&P 500, which is going to be a

bid under all these magnificent seven

stocks.

>> So, you can almost be like, you almost

don't have to discern to some extent

because of that capitalization weighted.

>> You know, the way the S&P is structured,

it's like it's going to go there anyway.

So, I think when you get a re-rotation

of these stocks, you know, Amazon's

going to benefit, you know, Alphabet's

going to benefit, Meta's going to

benefit, Microsoft's Microsoft's going

to benefit, they're all going to

benefit. It's just going to be a

natural, you know, because retail money

is just going to go to the S&P.

>> Yeah. And I I think, you know, you you

said this, it made me think about it.

The S&P is up was up 8 and a half%.

>> Right.

>> The eagle weighted S&P is up 11 and a

half%. It's really outperforming the the

market weighted S&P, which I think

speaks to your whole rotation idea that

money's not leaving the market. might be

leaving the tech high growth tech names

because that's what that's what's really

driving the market weight S&P right but

it's clearly moving into other sectors

which I use as a as an argument um when

I'm talking to clients about you know

that are getting nervous I go okay take

a look at what's happening here

>> I think the around February of last year

I I said there's more to life than the

mag seven and I I have I have really

like believed that because there's also

like

>> I had this theme also of investing in

the receivers of the capex versus the

spenders of the capex which is

essentially saying the same thing in a

lot of ways and I think

>> I have this kind of like overarching

view that like

>> comp now this is not trying to be

political but companies themselves have

probably not paid enough in tax their

fair share of taxes right like and

obviously that's been to make us more

globally competitive and this is almost

the way of like the largest companies

like

>> paying their taxes but they're doing it

in building out infrastructure and

building out like

>> building out like the future for us and

I think

>> creating opportunity,

>> right? But that's why I'm like that's

what you don't like you invest where the

money is going and not where it's and

that's one of the reasons why but ex

Apple that's Apple has not been part of

that

>> where they're not the hyper spenders or

hyperscalers, right? Hope they don't go

bankrupt doing it, right? That's the

thing we really hope. But no, no, I

think it's a really good point, but I

also think it's kind of like we don't

really know when the spending is going

to turn off on this this whole and Yeah.

>> Every quarter I get nervous about them

saying we're good on spending this

quarter.

>> Yeah. Okay. So, that's the question. Is

the AI trade dead in your mind?

Certainly not. For me, it isn't.

>> No, not at all.

>> Not at all.

>> I don't think it's dead, but I think

there's a lot of risk there where I can

just say, "Hey, I can buy the banks

here, which trade for like a 40%

discount to the S&P. We know the economy

is starting to pick up. loan growth is

going up. Capital markets are opening

up. I'm getting like a two, three%

dividend. So, I think there's a lot of

places you can put your money in the

market that aren't predicated on AI. And

I think it's important because if I look

at most portfolios, they're so dependent

on that AI trade, whether you're just

owning the hyperspenders directly, you

own semiconductor stocks, you own, you

know, some of the like the nuclear plays

that are going to, you know, they're

going to basically electrify these um AI

data centers. And I think having

positions in your portfolio that if the

AI trade does not if if all the spending

doesn't come to fruition, you're safe, I

think is a really important starting

portfolio. We started doing that in our

portfolios. We started doing like

>> and it doesn't agree. I feel like go

ahead.

>> No, go ahead. No, no, I was going to say

somebody [laughter] was on somebody was

on TV this morning. I don't know if it

was on Maria or on Vanney saying that

you can't really get away from AI

because every industry is now impacted

by AI, right? So when you think you're

not getting involved in AI, in fact when

you buy JP Morgan, you're buying their

exposure to AI.

>> Totally. I mean every right I think

that's a great

>> when you buy the banks, when you buy the

industrials, when you buy right

>> and that's why I'm started saying like

um we started moving away from the semis

right in June and and to other things

that we think will benefit from AI and

that's why we started buying like a

Shopify a Visa. I actually think like

this whole kind of like infra financial

infrastructure with stable coin is an

interesting part of the AI right

>> growth of AI.

>> Well, look what's happened to

Caterpillar this year. Caterpillar,

it's a great company. Sure,

>> there was nothing really sexy about it.

It was up 80% or something because it

was drawn into the AI ecosystem, right?

the turbines, not only the the

construction equipment, but now the

turbines that they that they manufacture

that are used in the AI trade. And they

Caterpillar has been

>> massively. It's wild. Yeah. But I also

think there's other stories there,

right? You have we just talked about you

need to upgrade the grid, right? That's

real. We're doing this reshoring.

>> That's why I was like with Cleveland

Cliff finally like

>> that's an old school name.

cuz I was like they only futuristic

>> the only maker of grain oriented

electrical steel.

>> Well, no, it's a great point. Then you

have defense budgets going up around the

world as well. So when I think about

like mining stocks, you think about like

owning the emerging markets, all these

places are commodity based. So I think I

don't think all these trades are

actually that dependent on just AI. And

like let's face like J&J is up like 50%

plus over the last 12 months. That's not

dependent on artificial intelligence.

>> No, that's not. No, you're right.

Healthare has been a solid place to

>> healthare is a great Yeah. So I think

there's a lot of names you can put your

money into that's not predicated on

that.

>> All right. So we're going to run out of

time here pretty soon but I want to get

your kind of view on going into August

which tends to be kind of the doldrums

of the summer. A lot of people are off

Europe is on vacation, right? So things

quiet down. There's no Fed meeting in uh

we didn't pick we didn't pick up on it

but I'm assuming you think there's no

rate hike on Wednesday.

>> Yeah. Still it's a nothing for now.

>> Right. Okay, there's certainly nothing

in August because there's no meeting.

Doesn't mean he couldn't if there's a

reason to, but typically there won't be

anything in August. So, what what should

you be looking for? What should

investors be thinking about as we move

into August and then into the fall,

which tends to be sometimes a volatile

>> September tends to be the worst month of

the year.

>> That's good to know. I'm writing that

down. [laughter]

>> Not not always obviously investment

diary

>> if you go back over the last like you

know many years like September.

>> That's right. um because people ignore

what happens and then they come back to

their books and they're like they make

the changes they need to make. Um I

think you do need to watch inflation

what's happening in um in the Middle

East. I think those are two you know

swinging things and could be combined.

Yeah. Um I think Jackson Hole will be

interesting because is are will some of

the results of these group meetings that

you know task force that's right um you

know will that come out and say actually

we're not worried about inflation we're

more worried about deflation and then

they end up cutting rates which the

market may have an interesting reaction

to if they're seeing like near-term

inflation numbers

>> higher. Do you think Kevin Wer gonna

have a press conference on Wednesday?

[snorts]

>> I don't know. He I think he's still in

like trying to figure out what he should

do.

>> I hope he does not have a press

conference.

>> I think he's going to have one though.

>> I don't think he's going to have one.

>> I think he is.

>> If I was a Fed chair, I would have one.

>> But he like he had like he like the last

one he just said.

>> He's going to say very little, but he's

going to say

you you won't remember this.

>> When I came into his business, Alan

Greenspan was Fed chair. And Alan

Greenspin used to Allan, you would

remember, right? Alan Greenspin came

out. He'd say, "This is what the Fed

decision is." He'd make the

announcement. He'd close the book and

he'd walk away. He didn't take

questions. He didn't sit there and hold

your hand. He didn't ask you if you're

okay. He didn't ask you, you know, "Take

a Xanax and calm down." Nothing.

>> And I thought the markets did fine now.

The markets are different today.

>> They were more volatile in the the

market.

>> Yes. But there was the technology wasn't

around. So, they weren't as they didn't

>> it wasn't as quick as

>> Actually, they're very volatile now,

too, because of the speed of

information.

>> Correct.

and the technology allows it to be more

volatile. Anyway, before we run out of

time, what do you think about August?

>> I think cash is trash. I think you've

seen sentiment get very, very negative

in the last week because oil prices

skyrocket. And usually when you have

negative retail sentiment, that's a good

time to buy. Also, I think we're

probably at the higher range for oil

prices are. Yeah. And if you think about

if oil prices start to come down, it

disproportionately benefits the foreign

markets. So, I'm very bullish on the

global economy.

>> But that's assuming this ore is over. I

don't even think even if it's not over,

I could still see prices going back down

into the 70s.

>> What if it has, right?

>> It could. It could, but I'm gonna say if

I was going to be a betting man.

>> I mean, we thought it was over a month

ago. Everything was signaled and live

and suddenly it was.

>> I I don't I think it's I think it's

going to go on a long time, frankly. But

I but I do think you'll see prices come

back to the 70s. I mean, you're you're

clearly seeing oil come out in different

ways. Like Saudi Arabia's got their

pipeline get into the Red Sea as long as

the Houthies don't

>> block it. That's like another red. But I

think there's going to be a lot of

creative ways to get oil, you know, out

of the Middle East and it's not going to

do that.

>> I do think one of the things that saved

us was the fact that China stopped

importing oil and if they end up needing

like to come back out into the market, I

I don't know. I just think there was

like that really helped us and that

we'll see if they

>> Yeah. But it's kind of remarkable. We

haven't been over $100 a barrel, you

know, since the conflict started. So I I

think that speaks to there is more oil

getting to the market than that they say

that 20% that comes through the

straight. And I do think we're at the

higher end, but I think I think at some

point here you land in the 70s even if

the conflict continues. Um, and I think

that's the historical average last 20

years like $73 a barrel is oil prices.

>> The issue was there's not a lack of

supply of oil. Let's be honest, the

world is a wash in oil.

>> It is. Yes. But also, you have to worry

about energy security now, right? If I'm

Japan, I'm not going to want to get all

my oil. You're going to start to reroute

it. So, I think there's going to be a

premium on oil prices that we didn't

have before. So I think 70s are a normal

place and also like keep energy stocks

in your portfolios ahead. You haven't

been there.

>> I do agree with that. We've kept it

there.

>> Robin Hood agrees with me. So you know

must be right.

>> I was so hoping you didn't agree with

[laughter] them.

>> That's the only thing I agree with this.

>> Anyway, listen. I appreciate the time. A

half an hour goes by way too fast. I'

I'd like to grab this group together

again maybe toward the end of the year

just to see how all this played out and

kind of where we where we ended up

versus where we thought we ended up.

Just real quick, where do you think the

Do you have an S&P target?

>> Yeah, I actually had where it is around

here. So, and I've just been kind of

like watching it go sideways and I'm

like, do I go up or

>> No, I was in the 7576 range. Yeah.

>> You know, I think I think u uh

>> there there are numbers as high as

8,000. I think that's a little

aggressive.

>> I was at 7,500 and I was Yeah,

>> 8500. I think it's going to melt up. I

think there's just Yeah, I do. I do.

>> We're definitely coming back. We are

definitely coming back.

>> You know what? If I'm right, you guys

can take me out the scissors.

>> I'd be happy to take you out to dinner

if you're right. And if you're wrong,

you're taking [laughter] you're taking

us out to dinner if you're wrong.

>> Anyway, done. Done and done. Thank you

very much for joining us. Until next

time, take good care.