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SOFI & Robinhood Investors BEWARE— Don't Make This Mistake!

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SOFI & Robinhood Investors BEWARE— Don't Make This Mistake!

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471 segments

0:00

SoFi and Robinhood investors, beware

0:02

right now. We're at a very crucial

0:04

inflection point. These two stocks are

0:07

very volatile, and I need to analyze

0:09

both of them for you in this video. I've

0:11

recently covered both, but I have an

0:13

update and more information that you

0:14

need to know because there are some

0:16

mistakes that investors are making. So,

0:17

today I'm going to discuss SoFi stock,

0:20

the business, the valuation, and where I

0:22

see it headed next, as well as Robinhood

0:25

stock after they have already had

0:26

earnings and the stock has increased.

0:28

Does it have any more room to increase?

0:30

So, we'll be doing a deep dive because

0:32

these stocks aren't perfect. They also

0:34

have some things that you should be

0:35

aware of. Now, many investors are going

0:37

to miss the post-earnings opportunity on

0:40

both of these stocks, but I do believe

0:42

that one of them has a bit more upside

0:44

to go. So, let's start off with SoFi.

0:46

SoFi right now is sitting at $18 per

0:49

share. The market cap is at $23 billion,

0:52

and the P/E ratio is under 40. Just look

0:55

at the chart right now. This stock was

0:57

trading for over $30 per share, and

1:00

since it has been trading at $30 per

1:02

share in late last year, now the stock

1:05

has been going nowhere and going

1:06

sideways at $18 per share. Now, look,

1:09

there's a huge mismatch between the

1:11

business and what's happening with the

1:13

stock. SoFi is not like most fintech

1:16

companies. They don't just run banking

1:17

infrastructure. SoFi actually owns it.

1:20

SoFi is different from many fintechs

1:22

because it has a national bank charter

1:24

through SoFi Bank. That means it can

1:26

take deposits and originates or fund

1:29

many loans within its own banking

1:31

operation instead of relying entirely on

1:34

a partner bank to provide those core

1:35

banking functions. For example, a

1:37

fintech without its own banking often

1:39

works something like a customer then

1:41

goes to a fintech app, then a partner

1:43

bank, and that is a lot of fees, guys.

1:46

What makes SoFi really different is they

1:48

can do all of this themselves without

1:50

having to pay third parties. That

1:52

matters because SoFi can capture more of

1:55

the economics, can have greater control

1:57

over deposits and lending and rely less

1:59

on third parties for core banking

2:01

functions. It's difficult to disrupt

2:04

SoFi because SoFi is the disruptor.

2:07

Guys, it is literally the company doing

2:10

the disrupting. When I used to work at

2:12

Goldman Sachs, it was literally like

2:13

working, I don't know, like in the 1980s

2:16

even though I was working there in like

2:17

2015 or 2016 time. But it was so old and

2:20

outdated. SoFi is disrupting dinosaur

2:24

banks like Bank of America, Goldman

2:26

Sachs, and all these other names out

2:27

there. SoFi's acquiring customers like

2:30

crazy and I am very interested in the

2:32

stock at these levels despite the stock

2:34

not doing much. I think we're going to

2:36

see something very similar to what had

2:38

happened with Palantir. Please watch a

2:40

few weeks ago a few weeks ago, guys.

2:42

Please watch it if you have to. I said

2:44

that Palantir is a steal at $109 per

2:47

share. The comments were saying, "Bicep

2:49

over tricep? Yeah, right, Henry. Glutes

2:52

over quads? I'm losing money on

2:54

Palantir." And then other comments were

2:55

like, "Henry, you lost your mojo. You

2:57

don't know what you're talking about."

2:59

Etcetera, etcetera. When I said that

3:01

Palantir was an absolute steal and

3:03

goldmine at $109 per share. And we know

3:07

what happened with Palantir. Yes, it was

3:09

difficult, but I made my community

3:11

life-changing gains off of Palantir. I'm

3:13

not a financial advisor and I can't

3:15

predict the future, but I am confident

3:17

in SoFi stock in a very similar way that

3:20

I was confident in Palantir. And waiting

3:22

ended up paying off very handsomely. So,

3:25

look, with SoFi at $18.12

3:28

right now, anything under $20 I deem to

3:31

be a good value because I believe this

3:33

stock is between $25 to $27 stock in 6

3:37

months. Maybe that'll happen sooner,

3:39

maybe it'll happen later. But in 2027,

3:42

mark my words, I believe that SoFi is

3:44

between $25 to $27 in value. That's what

3:48

the business is worth based off of my

3:50

own modeling, the cash flows, and my

3:52

valuation of the business. Now, one last

3:55

thing about SoFi, and then I will move

3:57

on into Robinhood. I need to mention

3:59

customer lifetime value. Just like I was

4:02

talking about Palantir, how it's a steal

4:04

at 109. I believe in Palantir's

4:06

business. I think they're going to beat

4:07

earnings. All of that ended up

4:08

happening. You can see my videos. All of

4:11

them are transparently here on YouTube,

4:13

right? I want to mention something that

4:14

people are missing. Investors are not

4:17

understanding about SoFi. This is one of

4:18

the biggest mistakes that investors are

4:20

making because they don't understand

4:22

this. Therefore, they're not investing

4:23

in SoFi when the stock is actually

4:25

cheap. So, what is lifetime value or

4:27

LTV? This is the most important piece of

4:29

the SoFi story. I think this is

4:31

completely undervalued. We're already

4:33

seeing evidence of this because roughly

4:35

40% of new products have recently been

4:37

opened by existing SoFi members. SoFi

4:40

calls this its financial services

4:42

productivity loop, acquiring a member,

4:45

give them a good experience, introduce

4:47

them to additional products, and make

4:49

that relationship more valuable over

4:52

time. That's one reason that I think you

4:53

have to look at SoFi as a long-term

4:56

ecosystem. One more time, you have to

4:59

look at SoFi as a long-term ecosystem,

5:02

rather than simply a lending company.

5:05

The ultimate goal is to become the

5:06

primary financial relationship for

5:09

millions of people. If SoFi can acquire

5:11

someone when they're young, and keep

5:13

that person for decades, that

5:15

relationship could become significantly

5:17

more valuable as the customer's income,

5:20

assets, borrowing needs, and financial

5:23

activity grow. That's the long-term

5:25

opportunity. More members, more products

5:28

per member, lower acquisition costs per

5:31

additional product, and potentially much

5:34

higher lifetime value from each

5:36

customer. All right. Now, they are

5:39

spending money on ads as well, which is

5:41

very important as an investor, or if

5:44

you're considering to buy SoFi at these

5:46

levels, you should understand because

5:48

think about it like an option trade.

5:50

What matters isn't just what you pay up

5:52

front, it's the return that you generate

5:54

on that capital in the future, okay?

5:57

SoFi might be spending money today to

5:59

acquire someone who opens up a savings

6:01

account, but also that's the beginning

6:04

of a relationship. Over time, that same

6:06

customer might use SoFi for, you know,

6:08

investing or credit cards or personal

6:10

loans, student loans, mortgage. Oh my

6:12

goodness, a mortgage is such a long-term

6:14

commitment that SoFi literally prints

6:17

money hand over fist. Like literally,

6:19

they are making so much money on their

6:21

customers. And that is what's called

6:23

customer lifetime value or LTV. That's

6:26

what I'm talking about. If SoFi can

6:28

spend $100 to acquire a customer and

6:30

eventually generate, I don't know, 500,

6:32

1,200, $2,000 for that customer, then

6:36

you have a very powerful and profitable

6:37

business. That's why I'm watching

6:39

customer growth, but I'm also watching

6:41

how effectively SoFi turns those

6:42

customers into long-term relationships.

6:44

That's the part of the business that I

6:45

believe is very undervalued. And this is

6:48

why I'm trading SoFi actually on a

6:49

weekly and monthly basis in my Discord

6:51

community. If you're not in my Discord

6:53

community, you are missing out because

6:55

SoFi going sideways is actually a

6:56

fantastic opportunity for investors.

6:58

Now, enough about my community and

7:00

myself, let's move on into Robinhood.

7:02

Here is Robinhood stock sitting at $95

7:05

per share essentially. This is a

7:07

beautiful stock. I really like what has

7:10

happened to Robinhood because over the

7:12

last 1 month, the stock has actually

7:14

come down after a big pump, okay? Over

7:16

the last 6 months, you can see the stock

7:18

was actually very, very low at $70 per

7:21

share. I was telling my community,

7:22

"Guys, we got to buy this." And we did

7:24

buy it. We have 95 covered calls to be

7:26

transparent, okay? I have 95 covered

7:28

calls, which is actually very, very good

7:30

at the moment. Now, Robinhood went above

7:32

my covered call. I didn't do anything. I

7:34

didn't close. Just I held. I held on,

7:37

iron fists, held on, right? Now, after

7:41

Robinhood has soared, right, in price,

7:43

they did have earnings and we're going

7:44

to go over that. We're going to go over

7:46

earnings. Let's actually do that real

7:47

fast. We'll go back to the technicals

7:48

and where I see it headed. Robinhood

7:50

posted the best quarter ever as

7:52

prediction markets and Robinhood chain

7:54

take off, okay? Here I highlighted

7:55

Robinhood quarterly revenue of $1.31

7:58

billion. That's in- That's insane. I

8:00

remember being an analyst here on Wall

8:03

Street when Robinhood was only public,

8:06

okay? And they were making way less. I

8:08

don't remember what the numbers were,

8:09

but numbers were like super tiny

8:11

compared to this. It's actually crazy

8:12

for me to see a billion dollars in a

8:14

quarter because the same thing happened

8:15

with SoFi. It was under a billion. Now,

8:17

these fintech companies, they're scaling

8:19

so fast. That's why I want you to pay

8:21

attention. I'm trying to put some green

8:23

dough in your pocket, okay? I'm telling

8:25

you because these companies are scaling

8:27

their businesses. It doesn't matter if

8:29

the stock isn't following step-by-step

8:32

linearly, okay? Growth does not happen

8:34

linearly in anywhere in life, okay?

8:36

Everything has some variance, some

8:39

volatility. And that's a good thing.

8:41

That's where opportunity actually sits,

8:43

okay? It actually sits there, all right?

8:46

I'm about to I'm about to go nuts here

8:47

because I'm telling you the opportunity

8:49

you guys are sleeping on, I'm telling

8:50

you, it's something else here. So, this

8:52

company is scaling 32% year-over-year,

8:55

beating Wall Street estimates of $1.26

8:58

billion, okay? That's not a massive

9:00

beat, but it's a nice beat. It's a

9:01

really nice beat. But, what's even nicer

9:03

is the company's net income came in at

9:05

$573 million or $0.62 per share, okay?

9:08

Versus $386 million and $0.42 per share

9:11

a year ago. You can do the math, okay?

9:14

The revenue is growing at 32%, but look

9:16

at the earnings. The earnings went up

9:18

50% for Robinhood as a company. That is

9:21

what can happen to the earnings because

9:22

earnings can expand much faster than

9:24

revenue can expand. And when earnings

9:26

goes up this much, going back to

9:28

Robinhood here, this P/E ratio of 41 is

9:31

going to contract so fast that I think a

9:35

a of investors won't even be ready for

9:36

this. Because with earnings going up by

9:38

50%, that means that P/E ratio is going

9:41

to get crushed. It's going to come down

9:43

quickly, and that's going to make this

9:44

potentially a very cheap business to be

9:47

invested in. And that's potentially

9:48

going to make this a very cheap business

9:51

from a valuation standpoint. Okay? So,

9:53

going back again here, we hit all-time

9:55

highs in trading volumes across

9:57

equities, options, and prediction

9:58

markets. CEO Vlad Tenev said on X,

10:01

"Transaction-based revenue rose 44% to

10:04

700 $76 million." And guys, I want to

10:06

pull up here the presentation that they

10:09

had. This was in July 29th. Took me a

10:12

kind of a little bit over a week here to

10:13

really kind of sit in and do evaluation

10:16

model. And I'm about to give you the

10:17

price, and I think you're going to be

10:18

very shocked where I think Robinhood can

10:21

be trading at. Okay? So, Q2 2026

10:24

business results highlight. You can see

10:26

funded customers. Man, this is This is a

10:29

This is doesn't look crazy, but this is

10:30

what compound growth looks like. This is

10:32

a compounding growth. Okay? It's It's

10:35

growing very quickly with Robinhood Gold

10:36

subscribers. This is what I'm most

10:38

bullish on on the business. Robinhood

10:40

Gold subscribers, this is what I love to

10:42

see because once a customer is in with

10:44

Robinhood Gold, which is like what, five

10:46

bucks a month? That's nothing, right?

10:48

You're thinking, "Well, five bucks, who

10:49

cares? That's not a lot of money." And

10:51

it's also a lot of money when all 4.8 4

10:53

million users are serious now because

10:55

they're paying money. And when when

10:56

money comes into the equation, you know

10:58

people are serious. Okay? They have a

11:00

different psychology. When something's

11:02

free in life, okay? That's why I don't

11:03

do free coaching. I used to do free

11:05

coaching, by the way. People don't take

11:06

it seriously. Okay? When someone pays

11:08

for something, they're committed. Same

11:10

thing with Robinhood. Doesn't matter if

11:11

it's $5. They are locking their

11:13

customers in to a long-term

11:15

relationship, and they got the same

11:16

playbook as SoFi. I don't know if they

11:18

got the same, you know, hires from the

11:19

same MBA schools. What are they hiring

11:21

from Chicago

11:25

their MBAs must be doing the same

11:26

business plan because it's [snorts]

11:28

acquire customers, make sure the

11:30

customers are happy, make sure those

11:31

customers are spending more money with

11:33

the business. So look, total platform

11:34

assets growing as well, although there

11:36

was a little bit of shakiness from Q3

11:38

2025 to to Q4. Net deposits also in a

11:42

very nice place. You can see record for

11:44

all these figures. Financial results

11:46

highlights, you can see total revenues

11:48

1.3 billion.

11:50

Uh that's amazing, man. That's amazing.

11:53

And by the way, the market's doing

11:54

great, but it's not soaring as fast as

11:57

it was soaring in this time period. And

11:59

they're still making more money, right?

12:01

So they're just making crazy amount of

12:03

money. Now they have a lot of product

12:04

velocity, which remains robust through

12:05

the first half of 2026. I'm looking

12:07

forward to a lot of their stuff. And I

12:09

think, okay, when it comes to the

12:10

biggest mistake that investors are

12:11

making on Robinhood, it's really missing

12:13

Robinhood international expansion.

12:14

Robinhood is expanding throughout

12:16

Europe, and as they continue to expand,

12:18

more people are going to want to sign up

12:20

internationally, which is going to make

12:22

Robinhood a ton of money. Biggest

12:24

opportunity is obviously like

12:25

internationally. You can see that with

12:26

Netflix as well. When Netflix was early

12:28

on in in their growth stages, and when

12:30

they went international, that's what

12:31

bolstered the stock up a lot, okay? And

12:33

I see that happening for Robinhood as

12:35

well, because as they go into

12:37

international markets, that's only going

12:39

to increase their overall valuation.

12:41

Their market cap sitting at 85 billion

12:43

dollars. Guys, my prediction, what I

12:45

think is reasonable for Robinhood.

12:48

Again, I'm not a financial advisor, I

12:49

can't predict the future. I'm just the

12:50

guy here that has a degree in finance,

12:52

economics, analytics, and worked at

12:54

three different uh funds, okay? One of

12:56

them was Goldman Sachs. That was not a

12:57

fund. I was in kind of the wealth

12:59

management department. But then two

13:00

funds after that. And my opinion, based

13:03

off my own valuation, is I think we're

13:05

going to sit at 142 billion dollars.

13:07

That's the specific number that I came

13:09

across when I was doing my valuation

13:11

model, and I put in all the cash flows,

13:12

and I projected the future, and I

13:14

projected the next five years. I

13:16

discounted all that cash flow. I

13:17

believe, based off the growth that we're

13:18

seeing, Robinhood is a 142 billion

13:21

dollar market cap, okay? That's where I

13:23

see Robinhood at. You can see funded

13:26

customers increased 1.9 million

13:27

year-over-year to record 28.4 million in

13:30

Q2. Total platform assets increased 32%

13:33

year-over-year to 369 billion in Q2 due

13:36

to continued net deposits. And as we

13:38

continue here, I'm going to just scroll

13:40

this for one more minute. I'm just going

13:41

to show you more of the things that I'm

13:42

super interested when it comes to

13:44

Robinhood. And that is of course the

13:45

retirement. Okay, so retirement accounts

13:48

is super important because that's

13:49

obviously where the big money is.

13:51

Whenever someone's in retirement or

13:52

close to retirement, they have obviously

13:53

a higher net worth they have a higher

13:56

propensity to spend money. Okay, so

13:58

Robinhood is going to do very well with

14:00

that segment of their audience. Now

14:02

Robinhood gold subscribers grew to a

14:04

record 4.8 million. Again, this is this

14:06

is the part of the business I am most

14:08

bullish on where I see the highest

14:09

opportunity because you guys know

14:12

software companies have a really huge

14:14

valuation, right? They have very high PE

14:15

ratios. Why would a software company

14:17

have a higher PE ratio than, you know,

14:20

like a McDonald's or something like

14:22

that? Well, the reason is because a

14:23

software company that has low churn,

14:25

meaning very few customers are leaving,

14:28

has a very predictable revenue. Okay,

14:30

it's all about predictability and less

14:32

uncertainty for investors. Investors

14:34

hate uncertainty. So when it comes to

14:35

Robinhood as a business, okay, the most

14:37

important part of their business,

14:39

honestly, is their recurring cash flow.

14:41

When you have recurring cash flow as a

14:43

business, that makes investors very,

14:45

very happy because investors understand

14:48

this is a safer cash flow for the

14:49

business and likely this is not going to

14:51

be wiped out as easily as something like

14:53

transaction-based revenue. Okay,

14:55

transaction-based revenue requires

14:57

transactions. So if the market crashes

14:59

or the market pulls down and investors

15:01

are no longer excited or investors turn

15:04

to other forms of, you know, investing

15:06

and they don't use Robinhood as much,

15:07

transaction-based revenues obviously

15:09

going to go down. I don't really see

15:11

that happening because investors don't

15:12

really have anywhere else to go besides

15:14

Robinhood, which is really disruptive as

15:16

well. Robinhood as a business is very

15:18

disruptive like SoFi, which is why I

15:20

continue to make videos on these stocks

15:22

and why I'm so bullish on SoFi and

15:24

Robinhood still. Anyways, as you can see

15:25

here, last slide that I really want to

15:27

show you is they continue to grow and

15:28

diversify their business, which I think

15:30

is going to further contribute to them

15:32

having a higher and justified P/E ratio,

15:34

which isn't even that high, around 40s.

15:36

And as they are growing so fast, that

15:38

P/E ratio is going to come down, which I

15:41

believe is going to force Robinhood

15:42

stock to go up. If you want more deep

15:44

analysis on Robinhood and SoFi stock, as

15:46

well as option strategies, you can

15:48

schedule a free call right now to learn

15:50

how I am using options to profit off of

15:53

both SoFi and Robinhood. Even if SoFi

15:56

goes sideways, I'm using the wheel

15:57

strategy. If you want a free game plan

15:59

on how to use options to do that for

16:01

yourself, go ahead and check out the

16:02

description right now. We will give you

16:04

for free a full game plan, and then you

16:06

can decide from there if you want to

16:07

implement it yourself or if you'd like

16:09

some help implementing it.

Interactive Summary

This video provides a deep dive into the business models and investment potential of SoFi and Robinhood. The author argues that both companies are disruptors in the fintech space, highlighting SoFi's unique advantage of holding a national bank charter and Robinhood's strong scaling, particularly through its 'Gold' subscription service. The analyst offers a bullish outlook on both stocks, suggesting that despite current volatility and periods of stagnant growth, their long-term business fundamentals, such as customer lifetime value and international expansion, make them undervalued opportunities for investors.

Suggested questions

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