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Big Companies Hiring Again, Anthropic's Open-Weight Position, Zuck Backs AI for All | Diet TBPN

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Big Companies Hiring Again, Anthropic's Open-Weight Position, Zuck Backs AI for All | Diet TBPN

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1032 segments

0:01

Well, uh, Anthropics responded. We're

0:03

going to go through that proposal, the

0:06

the the facts and the proposal

0:07

[clears throat] for what happens next in

0:09

the open, uh, open model debate over

0:12

whether or not they should be banned,

0:14

restricted, tested, limited in some

0:16

ways, sued. There's a whole bunch of

0:18

different possible outcomes. Uh, but

0:21

we'll take you all through it. The Wall

0:22

Street Journal is reporting that large

0:23

companies are beginning to

0:24

>> They have a large white pill. Yes, it is

0:26

a large white pill

0:27

>> has hit the front page of the journal.

0:29

>> Yes. And I think people have been going

0:31

back and forth on this. This is a story

0:33

that's that's just getting digested by

0:36

the tech folks like the actual AI lab

0:39

leaders who had predicted crazy job

0:42

losses and are now not really seeing

0:44

that. They're seeing productivity boosts

0:46

and different uh diffusion taking time

0:50

in certain places and there's new

0:52

capabilities, but it's not exactly a

0:54

drop-in replacement for a co-worker, at

0:56

least in in most scenarios. And that's

0:59

what the Wall Street Journal is

1:00

reporting. So, let me set the table and

1:02

then uh we can debate it a little bit.

1:04

After roughly a year of cautious hiring,

1:07

companies across technology,

1:08

transportation, defense, and other

1:11

industries now say they need more

1:13

employees to work alongside AI systems.

1:16

Total victory for both humans and AI.

1:19

We're working together. Peace is

1:21

possible. It's an example of Je of

1:22

Jevans paradox. Jeban's paradox. When a

1:25

technology makes something more

1:26

efficient, demand often rises enough.

1:28

The total use and the need for people

1:31

actually increases. For roughly the past

1:33

year, many companies pointed to AI while

1:35

announcing layoffs. This was a huge

1:38

thorn in your side. You I think you

1:39

hated this more than anyone else. Um and

1:42

you were right to because it did seem

1:44

like it was just PR spin, etc. Yeah, it

1:47

was it was a way for CEOs and management

1:50

teams to save their own ass instead of

1:53

saying, you know, hey, we we overhired

1:55

or the business isn't doing as well as

1:57

as as we would like and we need to sort

1:59

of

2:00

>> uh basically [clears throat]

2:01

settle down for a second and uh get our

2:04

mojo back. Yeah, obviously no one wants

2:06

to say that, but I I think uh one of my

2:10

favorite posts was the and and obviously

2:12

these circumstances are never great, but

2:14

the the new CEO of Xbox came out and

2:16

just was like very honest about the

2:18

situation.

2:18

>> Yep.

2:19

>> And I think that uh more of that is

2:22

necessary.

2:23

>> Yeah. Also, there's a lot of firms where

2:25

they once they get to 10,000 20,000

2:29

employees, they might say, "Look, 20,000

2:31

might be the right number, but the

2:33

bottom thousand people are not

2:36

performing. We would like to lay them

2:38

off and then bring in a new thousand

2:40

people that are better fit for the

2:41

company and the current trajectory that

2:43

we're on, the current skills that we

2:44

need, maybe we need more sales people."

2:46

>> And those bottom people might be top 10%

2:50

at another company. Exactly. Yeah. So,

2:53

uh, the narrative appears to be

2:54

shifting. Uh, companies like CSX,

2:56

Alphabet, Service Now, Snap-on, and

2:58

consulting giant Booze Allen, Hamilton

3:00

have all recently signaled plans to

3:03

expand hiring, particularly in areas

3:05

where employees can use AI to become

3:08

more productive.

3:09

>> Yeah. It used to be somewhat of a flex

3:10

if a company was like, "Yeah, we put up

3:12

a role and we got 2,000 applicants."

3:14

Yeah. You know, it's like, well,

3:16

>> that's true. And then also, it's a

3:18

little bit of a sign of like, "Oh, wow.

3:19

They have a hundred openings. like they

3:21

must be like growing so fast, you know?

3:24

So, but if it's just a prompt to say,

3:25

"Oh, yeah, put up like look at my

3:27

organizational design and and add five

3:30

roles for everyone because why not? Why

3:33

not see who comes by?" You know, we're

3:35

not we don't necessarily have to

3:36

interview these people. Uh so, weird

3:38

weird dynamics, but we'll dig into it.

3:40

So, uh meanwhile, the latest weekly US

3:42

jobless claims fell to one of the lowest

3:44

levels in decades, underscoring the

3:46

resilience of the labor market. The

3:48

shift also requ reflects a more

3:50

realistic understanding of AI's

3:52

capabilities. Sarah Franklin, CEO of HR

3:54

platform Lattis, says many companies

3:56

initially assumed AI agents could

3:58

replace entry-level workers, but are now

4:00

recognizing that human human employees

4:02

remain essential. Just because you have

4:04

coding agents doesn't mean you're not

4:06

hiring engineers, she said, adding that

4:08

Lattis is seeing renewed hiring among

4:11

many of its customers, including for

4:12

junior roles. Uh Robert Half, CEO M.

4:16

Keith Watt said, "AI's effect on

4:18

employment has been more benign than

4:20

some has feared, adding that hiring

4:22

demand continues to improve and market

4:24

conditions are increasingly more

4:25

supportive of business." And so I do

4:27

think there was a little bit of like a

4:28

successful scop with the with the AI is

4:32

going to be able to do everything where

4:33

I do think there are some firms that

4:34

were like, "Yeah, maybe we shouldn't

4:35

hire or because like what if we get it

4:37

wrong and we hire a bunch of people and

4:38

then AI really does catch up and we

4:41

don't need those people. That's silly.

4:42

We shouldn't go through that like

4:44

whipssaw effect." Uh, and so people are

4:46

going back and forth on that. Bryce

4:48

Roberts.

4:49

>> Yeah, it's interesting. At least in at

4:51

least in our organization, which is

4:54

unique and and uh very niche and there's

4:57

not that many organizations that are

4:59

running, you know, a niche technology uh

5:03

daily show. Yeah.

5:04

>> I feel like a lot of

5:05

>> what the the value that we get out of AI

5:08

would have historically been done by not

5:11

super expert level freelancers, right?

5:14

these sort of like Upwork style tasks

5:16

that you would do historically like an

5:18

idea for a funny song, right? I've paid

5:21

to get a funny song made probably a

5:24

decade ago online, right, as just like a

5:26

joke [clears throat] and now you can

5:28

just go to Sunno and and make something

5:29

like that. And and then there's other

5:31

things like make a funny website, right?

5:33

I historically would maybe work with

5:36

>> So, you're saying that I should I should

5:37

take down the five open roles I have for

5:41

Celtic punk uh session musicians?

5:44

>> Not yet.

5:45

>> Because I was going to hire five Celtic

5:47

punk session musicians to constantly

5:50

record Dropkick Murphy's covers for us.

5:52

Yes. Every day

5:53

>> and then perform that you shouldn't do

5:55

that. [laughter] I'm actually closer

5:58

than ever to hiring a full-time Celtic

6:01

punk band to to play music to recreate

6:04

songs.

6:05

>> Yes, I'm I'm closer than ever uh to

6:08

doing that where that was not even on

6:09

the road map uh a few years ago. Yeah. I

6:11

don't know. It's it's a good point

6:13

there. Yeah. There there's a lot of

6:14

things that you uh are doing that you

6:16

would never do with a full-time

6:18

employee. Yeah. uh that just sort of

6:20

like fills the cracks and allows you to

6:21

do more different things in your

6:23

organization, but the core stuff is

6:25

still like you want a person that's

6:26

responsible and then you want them using

6:28

AI. I don't know. Yeah. Um the Wall

6:30

Street Journal uh breaks it all down,

6:32

but we went through most of that. So

6:33

Bryce Roberts, he's he's taking the

6:35

other side of this. He says he shares a

6:36

screenshot of a text message says, "We

6:38

honestly aren't hiring a ton right now.

6:40

AI backfilling most roles." Backfilling

6:43

is that specifically does that

6:45

specifically refer to when someone

6:46

leaves the company you backfill them

6:49

with AI? So you say, "Oh, someone quit."

6:52

Like if there's Steve and Jim on two

6:54

different on one team and Steve quits,

6:56

you say, "Hey, Jim, can you just instead

6:58

of hiring another person just do twice

6:59

as much work with AI?" Is that what this

7:01

person's articulating? I mean, obviously

7:04

there's some companies that are like,

7:05

"Yeah, we're not hiring anyone. We're

7:06

going for the one person$ one billion

7:08

dollar company. Like I'm not going to

7:09

hire anyone. I'm just going to use

7:10

>> Yeah, but that's rare. Usually, usually

7:12

when your business is ripping, you're

7:14

like, I can't hire great people fast

7:16

enough. Yeah.

7:17

>> And sometimes you actually sometimes you

7:18

actually don't have time to

7:20

>> invest into various hiring processes.

7:23

But yeah,

7:24

>> uh yeah, I would read into this text the

7:26

company's just probably not like

7:28

ripping.

7:30

>> That's my that's my takeaway.

7:31

>> Well, Bryce Roberts says, "Rip newrads."

7:33

Matthew Prince over Cloudflare takes the

7:35

other side. He says, "Wrong strategy to

7:37

stop hiring new grads." the right

7:39

strategy, hire them and insert them into

7:41

legacy teams to help them better adopt

7:43

AI.

7:43

>> And Cloudflare of course hired 1,000

7:47

>> something. It was a It was a crazy

7:49

number, wasn't it, up there in like

7:50

almost a thousand

7:51

>> four digits.

7:52

>> That's crazy. Let's play the latest Good

7:54

Work uh real. We're just watching reals

7:57

now.

7:58

>> This is one we got is a Bernie Maidoff.

8:03

>> Pretty good

8:04

>> gloves.

8:05

>> That's from the 80s, too. That's good.

8:06

>> Yeah. Yeah. I've I've seen a few of

8:08

these around before. Up next,

8:10

>> solid Sam Bankman Freed here.

8:13

>> That's nice.

8:14

>> Really nice.

8:14

>> That's really nice.

8:15

>> I like that they actually printed these.

8:18

>> I think he made balsa wood.

8:20

>> This is balsa wood.

8:22

>> The acting is so

8:26

>> Wow.

8:27

>> Wait, John.

8:28

>> This is a This is a vintage Zuckerberg.

8:30

>> 05.

8:31

>> This is a vintage '05 Zuckerberg. Let's

8:33

just check the back really quick.

8:36

There it is. That is a patch from his

8:39

Fruit of the Loom boxer briefs. You can

8:41

tell by the smell.

8:42

>> Is that real? What is that referring to?

8:45

>> This is on athlete, you know, trading

8:48

card. I'll put a piece of the jersey

8:50

one.

8:51

>> Yeah. Yeah.

8:51

>> All right. Up next.

8:52

>> Sleeve it.

8:53

>> Ooh. Okay.

8:54

>> Nice.

8:55

>> Elizabeth Holmes. We do have two. I

8:57

believe we have two. But a triple Holmes

9:00

is what every good collector has

9:03

>> in their arsenal. All right. We have one

9:04

last card.

9:05

>> One one card left.

9:06

>> Three, two, one.

9:09

>> Oh my god. [laughter] Oh my god.

9:10

>> Oh my god. Oh my god. Oh my god.

9:12

>> Turn it off.

9:14

>> Very funny. Very funny.

9:15

>> It is funny how the the like business

9:18

comedy cannon has really solidified

9:20

around like Elizabeth Holmes. Uh Sam

9:23

Bankenfreed, Mark Zuckerberg. There's

9:25

like a few names.

9:26

>> I'm surprised they didn't have an Adam

9:27

Newman rookie card in there.

9:29

>> I don't know if Adam Newman is like a

9:30

big enough name relative to

9:33

>> That's true. Sam Bank and Elizabeth

9:34

Holmes. Uh it's just interesting like

9:36

the different the different names that

9:37

have broken out that you can do a comedy

9:40

sketch that's like you know it goes as

9:42

big as uh as good work does because they

9:44

get you know I think millions and

9:45

millions of views on their stuff.

9:46

>> All right, pull up this image from

9:48

Manhattan this morning. We got sent

9:50

this.

9:51

>> We've been doing on the ground reporting

9:53

>> from one of our on the ground reporters

9:55

in Manhattan. There's a company called

9:57

Black Sheep

9:58

>> that that got 20 trucks and they are

10:01

just driving them around Google's

10:04

Manhattan office. Yes. Saying, "Shame on

10:06

you, Google. Return our $80,000."

10:10

>> We had to dig in. We got very curious.

10:12

>> I had no idea. They make sunglasses.

10:16

>> They make $8 sunglasses that beat $350

10:20

sunglasses in an NBC lab test.

10:23

>> Okay. Are you wearing black sheep today?

10:25

What you

10:25

>> I wish [laughter]

10:26

I wish. So, uh, Black Sheep makes direct

10:29

to factory.

10:31

>> Okay. Factory direct prescription

10:33

eyewear. Stop paying

10:35

>> No. This is from their own website.

10:37

They're saying direct to factory optical

10:40

disruptor, [laughter] which is not. This

10:42

is from their website. Where you uh on

10:45

Black Sheep.

10:46

>> I'm on black sheep.io as well. It says

10:48

factory direct direct to factory. Look,

10:52

I want to send some eyewear to a

10:53

factory. Direct to factoryactory.

10:55

>> I'll be sending it to them.

10:57

>> Direct toactory.

10:58

>> Yeah.

10:58

>> Uh so this company, they say direct

11:01

toactory optical disruptor black sheep

11:03

launches 25 truck gorilla campaign

11:07

against Google in Manhattan. Okay. And

11:09

then they're they're sort of like

11:11

narrating their own gorilla campaign. A

11:13

fleet of 25 minimalist LED billboard

11:16

trucks surrounds Google's Chelsea

11:18

headquarters after the tech giant

11:21

weaponized an organic search glitch to

11:23

pocket nearly $80,000

11:26

in ad spend following Black Sheep's

11:28

viral NBC Today Show debut.

11:32

25 LED trucks deployed. $77,000 drained

11:36

in 30 hours. And then they're and then

11:39

they're just continuing to market their

11:40

own product. So very interesting

11:41

strategy here. I think every marketer

11:44

has had the experience of of having a

11:46

campaign go haywire. Yeah.

11:48

>> Very fascinating to take to take this

11:53

route. Let's see how it works for them.

11:55

If I were Google, I would say you can

11:58

have your $80,000 back, but you can

12:01

never advertise on Google again because

12:03

I just don't know how. I don't think

12:05

Google would ban them permanently for

12:06

this. This is ridiculous. But it, you

12:08

know, they're just going to they're just

12:10

going to be like any other like as a

12:12

self-s served platform.

12:13

>> But is it a good campaign?

12:14

>> But what what actually happened? So they

12:16

say how it unfolded. NBC Today show

12:18

segment airs. Uh they test the retail

12:21

subscription against Black Sheep's

12:22

factory direct pair. National search

12:25

traffic spikes. Hundreds of Americans

12:27

search Black Sheep because they're

12:29

seeing it on TV. The organic listing

12:31

breaks. Google search engine redirected

12:33

organic brand traffic to a dead-end

12:36

third-party 404 error page. And so with

12:40

the organic route broken, users were

12:43

funneled into Google's paid listings. So

12:46

what is their claim? How is Google

12:49

responsible for this? Exactly.

12:51

>> Sounds like user error

12:52

>> because I mean you do you do have some

12:54

control over your Google search results

12:56

based on the web master tools. you can

12:58

index certain things and then also if

13:00

you're noticing a 404 page you could

13:02

like redirect it quickly but again if

13:04

this is happening all very fast

13:07

but I mean it is interesting because

13:08

they're probably going to get more than

13:10

$77,000 worth of organic just from this

13:12

I mean I didn't see the original

13:14

campaign and I'm seeing this because

13:16

this is hilarious but this is like a is

13:18

this they they shared an AI image with

13:21

tons of these like shame on you trucks

13:24

but those are real

13:25

>> these are real

13:26

>> and are those minimalist

13:28

Those seem maximalist to me,

13:30

>> but maybe they're minimal.

13:31

>> Minimalist, I guess, in the in the

13:33

display of the uh in the way they

13:35

actually are leveraging the space on the

13:38

truck, but black and white.

13:39

>> Truly underrated surface area for stunts

13:42

and advertising. like like this message

13:45

is sort of like squabbling with Google

13:47

over this like sort of odd scenario. But

13:50

you can imagine someone using this for

13:52

something much cooler and much more

13:54

positive and not like this uh you know

13:56

sort of unfortunate situation for them

13:58

where they're dealing with the you know

13:59

fallout of a Google error.

14:01

>> Well, we want to interview the truck

14:03

drivers.

14:04

>> So if you're driving a black sheep truck

14:06

around Manhattan today, reach out

14:08

>> for sure.

14:09

>> Show Nick, make it happen.

14:11

>> Ilio said straight shot to SSI. So, they

14:13

better not be gearing up to release a

14:14

work agent called France. [laughter]

14:18

[gasps] Francois would be a very good

14:19

name for a for an AI agent. I like that.

14:23

Uh, I do wonder what they're going to be

14:25

releasing. Has the SSI is going to

14:27

release. Is that complete rumor? Because

14:30

all all I said scale their research. So,

14:34

that just means they've done a bunch of

14:36

research. They have some sort of

14:37

architecture that they like, some sort

14:38

of flywheel, and they're going to like

14:40

use more compute. And so that's why

14:42

they're raising money. I don't think

14:43

they said like and we're going to

14:45

release it publicly.

14:46

>> Yeah.

14:46

>> But everyone's thinking like probably

14:49

still LLM or something different. No one

14:52

really knows.

14:52

>> Yeah. I mean I think still broadly like

14:54

generally

14:55

>> post god like next [clears throat]

14:57

level. There are levels to vague

14:58

posting. When you live a vague life just

15:01

like your entire life is vagory.

15:04

Anyway, uh, in other news, recursive

15:06

super intelligence signs a $410 compute

15:09

[laughter] deal with Amazon.

15:12

So funny.

15:14

And it's in the TechCrunch. It's in the

15:17

It's in the [laughter] the the header,

15:19

too. Of course, that is a typo. Uh, it

15:21

says recursive super intelligence signs

15:23

410 million million dollar compute deal

15:27

with Amazon. Congratulations to

15:28

recursive super intelligence. Throwing

15:31

safety out the window. That should be

15:32

the that should be the uh the tagline

15:35

because there's already safe super

15:36

intelligence but we're just doing

15:37

recursive super intelligence over here.

15:39

Um but of course the company is doing

15:41

very well. They emerged from stealth in

15:44

May with 650 million in funding focused

15:48

on building open-ended self-improving

15:49

systems and potentially compute

15:51

intensive approach to AI research. This

15:53

multi-year deal is meant to provide

15:54

flexibility as the company looks to

15:56

scale up those systems. Uh, Recursive's

15:58

$410 million outlay represents the bulk

16:02

of the company's fundraising to date,

16:04

but on a call with TechCrunch, uh,

16:07

>> hey, hey, they still have a couple

16:08

hundred million left over.

16:09

>> Founder and CEO Richard Socher

16:11

emphasized that he expected it to be the

16:13

first of many such deals. So, is this I

16:16

feel like normally when you see a like a

16:18

compute deal signed, it's always like

16:20

more complicated than just like we're

16:22

buying this expensive thing. It's

16:24

usually like we're we're paying that.

16:26

I'm like it's we we used to be so like

16:28

anti- circular deal that now I just have

16:32

come to I've been so normalized by them

16:33

that I expect them every time and I'm

16:35

like wait

16:36

>> this is just there's no circularity

16:38

here. I would have expected changing

16:40

hands.

16:40

>> Yeah. Like Amazon's investing in you and

16:41

you're buying tranium and racking it in

16:43

AWS doing new campus and they're

16:45

investing and this and that and you're

16:47

investing in them. Uh instead it just

16:48

seems like it's a pretty vanilla deal.

16:50

It's like they're just buying a lot of

16:51

compute from Amazon. Great.

16:52

>> Seems like it.

16:53

>> Well, good luck to them. very excited

16:56

for what they're launching. Um,

16:57

>> yeah. Uh, Jason, [clears throat] VP of

16:59

startups and VC at AWS, says part of the

17:02

agreement is that we're going to

17:03

co-develop him for a purpose built for

17:05

these types of companies. So,

17:06

>> fingers crossed, but it seems like we

17:08

could get some some circularity.

17:10

[laughter]

17:15

Yeah, let's hope so. Uh, let me tell you

17:17

about Railway. Railway is the all-in-one

17:20

intelligent cloud provider. Use your

17:21

favorite agent to deploy web app

17:23

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automatically takes care of scaling,

17:27

monitoring, and security.

17:30

Fingers crossed. [laughter]

17:33

Well,

17:35

well, here's here's a deal that's

17:37

somewhat circular. We got Nvidia

17:39

revealed as a tenant for a $50 billion

17:42

data center that will use its chips. So,

17:44

they're the tenant of the data center

17:46

that uses its chips. We'll talk to Tate

17:48

Kim about this. Uh CEO Jensen uh Wong

17:52

deploys balance sheet to backs stop

17:54

growth of AI computing market. Nvidia

17:56

has signed leases worth up to $50

17:58

billion for a massive Texas data center.

18:01

That's very very big. That's very very

18:03

big for a single site. Uh a previously

18:06

undisclosed commitment that shines a new

18:08

spotlight on the chips on the chip

18:10

group's growing role in financing AI.

18:12

The nearly $5 trillion company is

18:14

leasing the entire gig 1 gigawatt

18:16

facility that developer Hut 8 is

18:18

building which will house hundreds of

18:20

thousands of Nvidia graphics processing

18:21

units. So you have to imagine that once

18:24

they have these they serve something or

18:26

wind up selling them. Like these things

18:28

change hands so many times there's a lot

18:29

of different ways that this could play

18:30

out ultimately. Um but in the uh Can we

18:33

pull up the Nvidia chart? Yeah, there we

18:35

go. Nvidia,

18:37

>> big candle today, up 3%, 5.17 trillion.

18:42

Let's take a look at Apple

18:44

>> 4.99. They crossed five today. Uh

18:48

they're down a little bit since they

18:50

since they beat breached that, but

18:52

they're neck and neck. Uh Google is

18:55

sitting at

18:56

>> Apple running the do nothing win

18:58

strategy. Yeah. Jensen doing thousands

19:01

of deals.

19:02

>> They didn't even sign the open letter.

19:04

Uh there are three companies that still

19:06

I I believe still haven't uh signed the

19:09

open letter and

19:10

>> only three companies on the entire

19:12

[laughter] surface of the earth.

19:13

>> There are three there are three major

19:15

companies that haven't signed that

19:16

Nvidia open letter about uh banning open

19:19

source uh and or not banning open

19:21

source. Amazon, Apple and Anthropic.

19:24

Anthropic put out a uh uh a post

19:27

yesterday very very clear response sort

19:30

of outlining their view on open source

19:33

their stance. Apple and Amazon haven't

19:36

signed and they both have like very

19:39

physical elements in the world in the

19:41

sense that they're not uh they're sort

19:43

of unsloppable like you you can't vibe

19:45

code an Amazon warehouse. You can't vibe

19:47

code an iPhone. There are threats to

19:50

those businesses of course and of course

19:52

Apple should benefit from open source

19:54

and so should Amazon because they'll be

19:56

able to serve open models across AWS.

19:58

But it's just potentially interesting. I

20:00

think the Apple standing it standing

20:02

back is more just like look we're not

20:03

jumping on with this crazy open letter

20:05

that everyone is signing like we just

20:06

have our own brand. We're thinking

20:08

different. We're doing

20:08

>> well and based on other Apple AI

20:10

timelines I would expect them to sign it

20:12

in maybe a year or two

20:16

>> potentially. These glasses have have

20:18

changed you. They turned you a new

20:19

beast. Uh let me let me run through the

20:22

the three anthropic proposals because uh

20:24

it's an important response. So Dario

20:26

Amade anthropic CEO uh responded

20:28

directly to that letter summarizing uh

20:30

supporting openweight models uh that

20:32

circulated over the weekend. So he makes

20:34

three claims just to sort of clarify

20:36

things that I think are important. One

20:38

he says anthropic has never advocated

20:39

for a ban on openweight models. Now that

20:42

that's a blanket ban. There's obviously

20:44

like defining what a ban is and what an

20:47

openw weight model, what a distilled

20:48

model, what a foreign model is. These

20:50

things all matter. But he has he has

20:52

come out and said look, we never

20:53

advocated for a total ban on openweight

20:56

models. Uh two, he says uh undergirling

20:58

all of this is the US must beat

21:00

authoritarian governments in the AI

21:02

race. He points to China, but he

21:04

identifies any authoritarian government

21:06

if they get really powerful AI, they'll

21:08

come over here and steamroll us and you

21:10

won't be free to do whatever you want to

21:12

do in America. Uh three powerful AI

21:14

models may be misused to carry out cyber

21:16

attacks or biological attacks. There are

21:18

there are risks to having really really

21:20

powerful uh AI opensource systems just

21:24

running around. So he's worried about

21:25

those three things clarifying those

21:27

three points. But he makes three uh

21:30

recommended actions. He makes three

21:31

proposals. Uh first he says uh let's

21:34

continue to sanction chips. Let's not

21:36

sell chips to China. He says we should

21:38

not sell powerful chips or chipmaking

21:40

equipment to China. So this has been

21:42

debated for years like going back to the

21:44

Biden chip uh controls. Um everyone

21:46

knows every different angle on this uh

21:49

the basics. I mean there is a pretty

21:51

good argument for chip controls. Uh even

21:53

on purely geoeconomic competitive

21:55

grounds like even if you don't believe

21:57

in the the the risk of authoritarian

21:59

governments having powerful AI even if

22:01

you just think it's like you know fancy

22:03

autocomplete it's like well it's the

22:04

engine of our economy and if you can

22:06

slow down arrival economy that's

22:08

beneficial to you right? Um and so and

22:11

there also seems to be basically

22:13

unlimited demand for chips in America.

22:15

So uh by restricting sales to China that

22:17

shouldn't actually hurt American chip

22:19

companies all that much. Uh but yes,

22:21

>> well they just like the their argument

22:23

would be we fully lose the Chinese

22:26

>> market. Yeah. Which is

22:28

>> the second largest Yeah.

22:29

>> computing market in the world. No.

22:31

>> Right. So So I think um but but you're

22:34

the counterpoint to that is you were

22:36

going to lose it anyways.

22:37

>> Yeah. Um and a lot of that it stems from

22:39

the fact that chi China has been

22:41

building an indigenous chip supply for

22:43

decades. We've talked about going back

22:45

to uh a whole bunch of their you know

22:48

state-led statef funded chip and fab

22:52

processes. They've always been uh a few

22:54

years behind. Uh and so maintaining that

22:56

gap all else equal is an advantage for

22:58

the United States. Uh the second point

23:00

Dario makes is he says we should crack

23:02

down on industrialcale distillation

23:04

operations. Uh this seems totally

23:06

reasonable. companies can set their

23:08

terms of service and they have a right

23:10

to maintain intellectual property uh

23:12

with proper legal consequences for

23:14

violations. Anthropic's been fighting

23:16

distillation attacks, but according to

23:18

them, it's not that effective. Daario

23:20

proposes policy interventions to deter

23:23

this behavior. And this is where I'm

23:25

still not clear on what where that goes

23:29

next. Like what is the correct policy

23:31

intervention? There's a like policy

23:33

intervention is a very very broad thing.

23:34

It can mean anything from like a tax, a

23:37

tariff, a fine, uh a sternly worded

23:39

letter, uh not getting invited to a golf

23:42

tournament. Like there's so many

23:43

different things that policy like covers

23:45

these days, right? Um where where does

23:48

this actually go? He says he doesn't

23:50

want a blanket ban on openweight models,

23:53

but it does seem like one possible

23:55

policy intervention would be to sort of

23:57

like ban restrict or pressure open

23:59

weights models that can be reasonably

24:00

shown to have been distilled. So if

24:02

there's someone who's just a perfect

24:03

distillation, it just gets it just

24:06

doesn't quite feel right. It's hard to

24:08

quantify these things. We don't have a

24:10

binary where you run some sort of

24:12

algorithm and you say, "Yes, this was

24:14

distilled." Because you can distill, you

24:16

know, half on Opus 5 and then throw in a

24:18

little GPT 5.6 and then mix in some some

24:22

mistrol and like just be distilling from

24:23

all over the place. Fine-tune stuff,

24:26

change the flavor, change the RL

24:28

environment. There's so many different

24:29

pieces of it. And Tyler, you were making

24:31

a point about uh Tinker or

24:34

>> Yeah. So, so the the Inkling model from

24:36

Thing Machines like it used some synthet

24:38

synthetic data that was created with uh

24:41

I think Kimmy K2.5.

24:43

>> Yes.

24:43

>> So like I does that count as like

24:45

distillation like probably not when

24:47

people usually talk about it but like it

24:49

definitely benefited from Chinese open

24:51

source models.

24:52

>> Yeah. So I wouldn't call that downstream

24:53

of

24:54

>> Yeah. I wouldn't call that industrial

24:55

scale distillation. Yeah.

24:58

>> There is like some big gray area where

25:00

like how do you actually define these

25:02

things?

25:02

>> Yes. And so defining that is going to be

25:04

what that's going to be the conversation

25:06

that plays out in in DC like behind the

25:09

scenes on the basis of this and that's

25:12

where the actual negotiation is going to

25:13

happen between uh you know the the

25:16

position of Nvidia and everyone that

25:18

signed the letter versus the position of

25:19

Enthropic and everyone who didn't sign

25:21

the letter. They're going to sort of

25:22

decide okay well if you can prove this

25:25

this and this and you can show us that

25:26

your API was getting hit by these

25:29

different things and you have a really

25:30

solid report of what happened and then

25:33

the model also you know sort of you know

25:36

checks these boxes quantitatively when

25:38

we do this eval then maybe we will

25:41

pressure it and then what does that

25:43

actually mean? Um, you could go after

25:46

the lab that committed the distillation

25:48

attack with lawsuits, but that seems

25:50

really difficult given the international

25:51

nature of these attacks. So, we're sort

25:53

of back to where we started. Like, what

25:55

what can the government do that the lab

25:57

can't? Like, the lab should be looking

25:59

at every customer and saying, "Oh, this

26:02

seems like someone who's trying to

26:03

distill. They keep asking for basically

26:05

what looks like a lot of training data.

26:06

They they're not acting like a normal

26:08

user just being like, "Build me a

26:10

website." Okay. Third, he says, "All

26:12

sufficiently capable models, open and

26:14

closed, should go through mandatory

26:16

mandatory safety testing." So, this was

26:19

recently outlined by Dennis Hassabis

26:20

over at Google Deepind as well. And and

26:23

it seems like that the two companies are

26:25

in alignment on this in particular. Uh,

26:28

and it's a somewhat reasonable position.

26:30

Uh, although the risk is that small

26:32

companies who have safe models could

26:34

that aren't distilled could get tied up

26:36

in a review queue for years before they

26:38

can release. Like that would be very

26:39

very annoying if you're uh recursive

26:42

super intelligence for example and you

26:44

don't have a Washington DC office and

26:47

you're like hey we want to release our

26:49

new model and they're like yeah totally

26:51

like you got to go through the the the

26:52

the review process get in line and then

26:55

it's like every you know every trillion

26:58

dollar company is there with a ton of

27:00

lobbyists being like we'll review our

27:01

model first because we want to get out a

27:03

week before the the small startup and

27:05

that's the frustration of biotech the

27:08

FDA anything that goes through approval.

27:10

We've talked about this with the nuclear

27:11

stuff. Uh it gets very tricky and so you

27:14

want to avoid that and you don't want to

27:16

wind up slowing down innovation that's

27:18

happening on small scales and decreasing

27:20

competition. Dario does do a good job of

27:22

like acknowledging upfront that he says

27:25

it would protect a US AI companies from

27:28

competition, but that's never been my

27:29

goal with anything that he's saying

27:31

here. And so, uh it's still worth

27:33

working through what happens in a really

27:36

adversarial situation. Like what if a

27:38

foreign lab distills a bunch of frontier

27:40

models, they're the most aggressive.

27:42

They're just distilling everything. Then

27:44

they jump forward a bunch in capability.

27:45

Uh they get a bunch of smuggled chips.

27:47

They take all the restrictions off of

27:48

cyber, all the restrictions off of bio.

27:50

Uh and then they just drop the weights

27:52

on like a torrent or they put them up on

27:54

Hugging Face and Hugging Face is like

27:55

this is really crazy. No one likes this.

27:57

There's a lot of pressure to take it

27:58

down. I don't know. But it's out there.

28:00

Like what does the government actually

28:02

do? like the government probably

28:04

pressures or bans like hosting the

28:06

weights uh maybe serving the model you

28:09

maybe won't be able to run it in

28:10

American data centers you go to the

28:12

neocloud and say like hey this thing is

28:14

actually bad and I think people are

28:16

divided on this because they see the

28:18

current models not as actually dangerous

28:20

which is totally reasonable to assess

28:22

that yeah it's not that bad um but like

28:24

if there was a model that was like yeah

28:26

it's actually just like the killing

28:27

machine like I think most people would

28:29

be like yes I'm democratically voting to

28:32

not serve that because it's just like

28:33

it's an annoyance at at best and like

28:36

actually bad at worst.

28:37

>> And the other big question is like how

28:39

much compute do you actually need for it

28:40

to be dangerous, right?

28:41

>> Yeah, totally.

28:42

>> Is is uh like having some GPUs in the

28:45

back shed going to be enough. Maybe for

28:48

sufficiently advanced model, yes. Or do

28:50

you need access to a ton of racks? Yeah.

28:54

>> Ton of power. And then you do need to

28:56

work with

28:57

>> a Neocloud in that case. And as soon as

28:59

you're a US-based company with a real

29:02

data center with a bunch of NVL72s in

29:04

there, uh, you probably have

29:06

registration and, you know, all sorts of

29:08

just like business registrations where

29:10

the government can reach out to you and

29:12

say, "Hey, we're actually really worried

29:13

about this." Just like there are other

29:15

things you can't host in a data center.

29:17

There's all sorts of stuff that's

29:19

illegal, even just intellectual

29:20

property.

29:21

>> Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. That's it's uh

29:23

>> like you can't even just just because

29:24

you have a data center doesn't mean that

29:26

you can like take an open-source you

29:28

know uh

29:28

>> you can't you can't as a data center

29:30

>> oh yeah open source Marvel like they'll

29:32

be

29:32

>> or even even a you know a CRM company

29:35

can't knowingly support like a organized

29:39

cart global cartel that is like

29:41

trafficking narcotics right you have

29:43

you'd have to imagine like

29:45

>> uh that uh they have

29:47

>> they have to vi balances [laughter]

29:51

maybe.

29:52

>> So, uh, so, so, uh, what, what's

29:55

interesting is like what is the next

29:56

step of that? So, if there is a bad

29:59

model, uh, and and everyone agrees like,

30:02

okay, yeah, we got to not host this, not

30:04

distribute this, like yeah, the weights

30:05

are out there, people are trying to like

30:07

sort of run it a little bit. Uh, but

30:09

does it go offshore? Do we wind up in

30:11

like the crypto scenario where there's

30:12

like these offshore things and people

30:14

are using VPNs to get access to it? like

30:16

what level of aggression do you see from

30:19

the US government in that scenario? It

30:22

probably should be proportionate to like

30:23

the danger imposed by the model. Like if

30:25

it's just a model that's like that's

30:26

like annoying or like slightly IP

30:28

infringes, but like no one's really

30:30

being like I'm not I'm I'm canceling my

30:32

Disney subscription because this new

30:34

model will generate me Disney IP. Like

30:36

that's probably not like okay, put up a

30:38

crazy firewall. But if it is like the

30:40

ultimate hack machine that's like

30:42

stealing everyone's money from the

30:43

banks, then yeah, you are going to put

30:45

up the the firewall and sort of be much

30:47

more aggressive. So I think the response

30:49

will be in reaction to whatever the

30:51

power of the models are. But uh it'll be

30:53

interesting to go back and forth.

30:54

Anyway, all in all, the letter clarifies

30:56

a lot about the anthropic position. So I

30:57

think it's good that it it came out. Uh

30:59

but it's still worth working through the

31:01

game theory of like what happens down

31:02

the line. Policy interventions is all we

31:04

got here. And I think it's still too

31:06

generic at this point. I want to know

31:08

like what policy looks like. I want to

31:10

predict that. I want to understand uh

31:12

what's actually being proposed, what

31:13

people like, what people don't like. And

31:15

so I think we'll learn more about this

31:16

in the coming days.

31:17

>> Mark Zuckerberg is in the Wall Street

31:20

Journal opinion section with a new

31:22

piece. The AI future is for everyone. He

31:25

says, "The history of democracy and

31:27

economics has proved that centralized

31:29

power stifles human potential."

31:33

>> And uh it's quite long. go let you guys

31:37

read it, but let's head into the comment

31:39

section. Let's get a quick Let's get a

31:41

quick rea Let's get a quick reaction.

31:43

>> Uh this is the Wall Street Journal. I

31:44

think it'll be

31:45

>> um No, it it it looks relatively tame.

31:48

Um but yeah, making a you know, a clear

31:51

effort to position to to be the overtly

31:55

>> there was a white space for a guy

31:57

investing hundreds of billions of

31:58

dollars a year in AI that is like says,

32:00

"Hey, this is going to be really great

32:02

for everyone." Yeah. And I'm going to

32:03

help us get there.

32:04

>> It is It is interesting. I Facebook does

32:07

have some monopolies, but like the

32:10

competition for attention is constant

32:13

and there are always sources outside

32:16

like they've never had a full monopoly

32:19

on social media even with Tik Tok and

32:23

Snapchat and uh LinkedIn and Twitch and

32:27

YouTube and Netflix and the podcast feed

32:31

and SMS and iMessage. like there are so

32:34

many other platforms for disseminating

32:36

information like I I don't know I I it's

32:39

hard to jump straight to a critique here

32:42

but um the the key quote that Andrew

32:44

Curran pulled out was that he said in

32:46

most cases like cyber security the

32:48

history of open- source software has

32:50

shown that giving everyone full access

32:53

to powerful systems will be the best way

32:56

to protect safety and security over

32:58

time. So, he's firmly on the side of uh

33:01

democratizing powerful AI and uh he is

33:05

yet another one. Uh I imagine that they

33:07

that they signed the letter. I I've lost

33:08

track at this point, but you can imagine

33:11

that he did. Um anyway, thank you so

33:14

much for tuning in. The other piece of

33:16

news is that Apple is launching Apple

33:19

Upgrade next week, then iPhone, iPad,

33:22

Mac, and Apple Watch

33:24

leasing/subscription

33:26

program. Uh they said you will own

33:28

[laughter]

33:29

>> and you will be happy.

33:31

>> We're launching our new program. You

33:33

will own nothing and be happy.

33:34

>> Uh it's partnering with Clara to launch

33:37

in the United States at online and

33:38

retail stores. Uh it's now official.

33:40

Leasing prices start as low as $20 or

33:43

$17.99 per month for iPhone. Uh $11.99

33:48

for Apple Watch, $24.99 for Mac, and

33:51

$11.99 for iPad. So uh interesting. I

33:56

mean, a lot of people are saying this is

33:57

a direct reaction to uh increased prices

34:00

for memory, increased prices for

34:02

products. There was a time when an

34:04

iPhone was a couple hundred and there

34:08

were incentives to jump on a Verizon

34:10

plan and you sort of advertise the cost

34:11

over that. Those days are gone. Like

34:13

we're in the world of like a $2,000

34:15

iPhone. It's a significant

34:16

>> Same thing with our gongs for people

34:17

honestly.

34:18

>> You want a subscription gong?

34:20

>> No, I'm just saying there was a time

34:21

when a TVPN gong was $200. Yeah,

34:25

>> now it's in the tens of thousands of

34:26

dollars, right?

34:27

>> It's actually so expensive. Somebody a

34:29

friend of mine texted me and was like,

34:30

"Where do we get the gong?" Cuz I need a

34:31

gong. And I was like, I think you should

34:33

start small. And this is not like you're

34:36

you can't handle the big gong. I was

34:38

more saying that like there is a joy to

34:40

being on the hyonic treadmill of larger

34:43

gongs. Like you don't want to jump

34:44

straight to the biggest gong. You want

34:46

to start with a small gong

34:47

>> and work your way up.

34:48

>> Work your way up. Because every gong

34:49

that we've added has been so electric

34:52

when we get

34:52

>> I think it's time for a new one.

34:54

>> You want an even bigger gong or what?

34:56

>> Yeah, I want I want one that's hanging

34:57

from the rafters.

34:58

>> Leave us

35:00

>> five stars on Apple Podcast and Spotify.

35:02

>> Money never sleeps. You shouldn't

35:04

either. Call me.

35:06

>> Sign up for the newsletter at tvpn.com

35:08

and we will see you tomorrow at 11:00

35:10

a.m. Pacific. Goodbye.

35:12

>> Cheers.

35:13

>> Flashbang.

Interactive Summary

The video provides a detailed discussion on the shifting dynamics of AI in the workforce, noting that companies are increasingly focusing on human-AI collaboration rather than just replacements. It covers Anthropic's recent policy proposals regarding open-source models and international security, discusses compute-related deals like the ones signed by Recursive Super Intelligence and Nvidia, and touches on various tech-related business news, including a viral marketing campaign by Black Sheep and Apple's new subscription program.

Suggested questions

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