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Bloomberg This Weekend | Todd Blanche Confirmed as AG, Jobs Report Surprise

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2562 segments

0:02

Breaking news. The Senate confirms Todd Blanche as

0:05

attorney general in an early morning vote, 50 to 49.

0:08

The nomination is confirmed. Applause broke out on the Senate floor.

0:14

What this means for the future of the Justice Department.

0:17

Digging into the jobs report. U.S.

0:19

employers unexpectedly cut jobs and the unemployment rate fell.

0:24

It is the fall in unemployment rate that's due to the wrong reasons.

0:28

What it means for the fed and interest rates.

0:31

And an apparent financial lifeline for live gold.

0:33

It says found an investor to keep the tour going because this is always how it

0:38

goes live. Gosh, you never get the full picture.

0:40

The latest as live golfers tee off at Bedminster.

0:53

Happy Saturday. Welcome to Bloomberg.

0:54

This weekend we're coming to you live from our world headquarters here in New

0:57

York. I'm Christine Orsini.

0:58

I'm David Gura alongside Lisa Mateo. It is Saturday, August the 8th.

1:02

I want to say welcome to all our listeners and viewers across all of

1:04

Bloomberg's platforms on radio, television, streaming app, Bloomberg.com

1:08

and watching us on the Bloomberg Business app.

1:10

A lot of action in Washington to the wee hours, late night slash early morning

1:15

for our Capitol Hill colleagues. Yeah.

1:16

After looking like perhaps there were some holdouts right on party lines with

1:21

with the two usual Republicans, uh, having concern, uh, Susan Collins and

1:25

Lisa murkowski, party line vote. Todd Blanch confirmed as attorney

1:28

general. That's right.

1:29

That came on the heels of the sanctions bill being passed, the Russia sanctions

1:32

bill being passed. Um, lawmakers very eager to get back to

1:35

their districts. The summer recess begins in earnest.

1:37

But, um, this an achievement for the president, who was, I think, wondering

1:40

if this was going to happen, had talked about keeping Todd Blanch as acting

1:43

attorney general, should it not? Maybe through the midterms.

1:46

I'm going to dig into all this in just a little bit.

1:48

But first, let's get to the headlines with Lisa Mateo.

1:50

Lisa, you got it. On that overnight vote that followed a

1:52

tough confirmation fight that exposed concerns about party lines, about

1:56

installing President Donald Trump's former personal attorney to lead the

2:00

Justice Department. Now, yes, it comes after Republican

2:03

Senator Bill Cassidy said he would support Todd Blanch to be the next

2:06

attorney general, while Senator Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa murkowski of

2:10

Alaska opposed. Also this morning, the Senate has passed

2:14

a stopgap spending bill to avert a government shutdown by the end of

2:17

September. At that move, it shows how both parties

2:20

are looking to avoid a fight before midterm elections.

2:23

The vote was 90 to 6 to keep federal funding at current levels through

2:27

December 11th, and prevent the Trump administration from transferring the

2:31

funds to Border Patrol overseas. Russia and Ukraine.

2:35

They exchange overnight strikes Ukraine's capital while it came under

2:39

attack by ballistic missiles and drones, with fires reported in several districts

2:43

and three people killed in the Keith region, and a fire that was sparked at

2:47

an oil refinery in southern Russia by Ukrainian drone debris, injuring five

2:52

people. That's according to the regional task

2:54

force. Meanwhile, the U.S.

2:55

Senate had passed a new Russia sanctions bill championed by the late Senator

2:59

Lindsey Graham. Now it authorizes punishing tariffs on

3:02

China, India and other top buyers of the country's oil and gas, as well as

3:07

extending an extended Iran sanctions. Now, Senator Darlene Graham, she talked

3:11

about what it meant to her late brother. He believed that this was the most

3:15

consequential piece of legislation that he had ever led.

3:19

And I'm proud to carry the torch to the finish line.

3:23

Lindsey was committed to achieving a peaceful resolution to this war, and I'm

3:28

confident that these sanctions will pave the way for bipartisan legislation that

3:33

passed the Senate, 86 to 11, and still has to pass the House.

3:38

A federal appeals court has ruled that President Donald Trump cannot build the

3:41

white House ballroom without congressional approval, and must stop

3:45

construction on the $400 million project.

3:48

Now, the president called the decision unjust and said he would appeal it to

3:51

the Supreme Court. Democratic Senator Peter Welch stressed

3:55

that Congress would never give approval for that ballroom.

3:58

These are vanity project, and some reports indicate that the president is

4:03

spending literally 70% of his time, uh, the presence of busy person.

4:08

And there's a lot of things he's got to pay attention to, uh, including the war

4:12

in Iran. Republican Senator John Hoven, he

4:15

supported the construction, saying that it will be something that future

4:18

administrations can use. And after surprising strength earlier

4:22

this year, the labor market is weaker than previously thought.

4:25

U.S. employers unexpectedly cut jobs in July,

4:28

and hiring in the prior two months was revised lower.

4:31

Nonfarm payrolls day decreased 23,000 last month, following a combined 103,000

4:36

downward revision to the May and June figures.

4:38

The unemployment rate that fell to 4.1% and wage growth.

4:42

That's low. Dave and Christine, I know you're going

4:44

to be talking more about this with Anna Wang.

4:46

Uh, coming up. Yes.

4:47

Our chief U.S. economist.

4:48

And fascinating to see here the effects of the immigration policy on the size of

4:51

the labor market, something we're going to get into with and a little bit later,

4:54

safer bump. Did it hold up or did it go over the

4:56

World Cup predictions from last month? Stay tuned.

4:59

Thanks. All right.

5:00

Thank you Lisa. Back to that breaking news now out of

5:02

Washington, D.C., the Senate confirming President Donald Trump's pick for

5:05

attorney general Todd Blanchard. We're going to go now to Laura Davidson.

5:08

She's Bloomberg News, Washington deputy bureau chief.

5:11

Laura, late night for our colleagues on the Hill before everybody tries to skip

5:14

town. This looked like when I went to bed last

5:18

night, it wasn't going to happen. Possibly.

5:20

Um, and then you had but you had Bill Cassidy, who had been, like, the big

5:24

holdout, coming out and changing his mind kind of yesterday.

5:26

And then it was a holding pattern. And then all of a sudden this got pushed

5:29

through this morning. Can you walk us through how this came

5:31

about? Yes.

5:33

This is how Congress, uh, frequently works is there's a whole lot of nothing.

5:37

And then suddenly, uh, you know, in the wee hours of the morning, you're able

5:39

to, to get the votes and push something across the finish line.

5:42

Once Senate leaders have exhausted everyone and they're, uh, you know,

5:45

agreeing to vote for things. Um, so this is really, um, you know,

5:48

sort of a remarkable end to a weeks long saga.

5:50

Have you had, uh, you know, multiple senators coming out and expressing some

5:53

concerns about Todd Blanche and also just how Trump is influencing the

5:57

Justice Department, particularly this $1.8 billion anti weaponization fund

6:02

that would have gone to support, um, January 6th, uh, insurrectionists and

6:06

other um, allies of the president as well as the, the president being able to

6:10

cut a deal with the IRS, uh, to, uh, save himself from any tax audits.

6:15

Um, so, uh, you know, they were able to get some concessions, uh, you know, some

6:19

Republicans were able to get some concessions from the Justice Department

6:21

that really limited the scope of that tax deal, as well as that, uh,

6:24

essentially table and killing off, uh, that, that anti weaponization fund.

6:28

Uh, you still had two senators who said, no way, uh, Susan Collins and Lisa

6:31

murkowski expressing broader concerns. But the last vote, what everyone was

6:35

waiting for, uh, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, he is a lame duck senator.

6:39

Uh, Trump essentially opposed him in his primary, and he is, uh, will be leaving

6:43

Congress next year. Everyone was watching him.

6:45

He came out on the Senate floor yesterday and said, look, uh, you know,

6:48

I, uh, have some, uh, problems with how the Justice Department is being run, but

6:51

I think that Todd Blanche is going to be better than any other, uh, candidate

6:55

that Trump is going to put forward. And so therefore, I'm going to go ahead

6:57

and give him my support and vote yes. Let me play a bit of that sound from

7:01

that speech. Again, this was highly anticipated given

7:03

that murkowski defected. Collins defected.

7:05

What was Bill Cassidy going to do? Let's let's play listen to what he had

7:07

to play a little bit of what he had to say here on the Senate floor.

7:10

Mr. Blanche is not perfect.

7:11

And he will tell you this, but the choice is not between perfection and Mr.

7:15

Blanche. It is between Mr.

7:17

Blanche and another acting attorney general who may not run the department

7:20

effectively under President Trump, and who

7:25

indeed may not be as good as Mr. Blanche.

7:30

Laura, let's pick that apart a little bit there.

7:31

Not not a ringing endorsement there. The devil you know is really the

7:34

endorsement I would want going into a new job.

7:36

I'm sorry. David, what do you what do you make of

7:38

what the senator had to say there? The rationale is he presented it there

7:41

on the Senate floor. Well, I think you just have to take a

7:44

look at some recent history. If you look at, you know, who Trump has,

7:47

uh, talked about having a top that, uh, the Justice Department of the past.

7:50

You his first pick back when he was recently reelected in in 2024, he wanted

7:55

Matt Gaetz, uh, the really, um, embattled and the scandal plagued, uh, a

7:59

member of Congress who had, uh, had a facing all sorts of allegations of, you

8:03

know, underage sex charges and a whole bunch of problems that really got a very

8:06

quick, swift no, um, from Senate Republicans.

8:09

That's when he pivoted to Pam Bondi. Of course, now Blanche will be replacing

8:12

Bondi. Uh, but I think, uh, you right.

8:14

You know, in that speech, Cassidy mentioned that he thinks that, uh, Todd

8:18

Blanche will be a hands on administrator and sort of be able to run, uh, a very,

8:23

very large department with thousands and thousands of, uh, lawyers and that he's

8:27

not worried, um, sort of broadly about, um, you know, Mr.

8:30

Blanche, his character, uh, whereas, uh, he, you know, sort of suggested that

8:33

there would be other candidates that the president might be interested in who,

8:36

uh, where he would have more concerns with.

8:37

You mentioned that, uh, there were these two big concerns, and one of them was

8:41

this anti weaponization fund. and Blanche kind of explain what he did.

8:45

He kind of wrote a memo or a promise that it's gone away.

8:47

But my understanding is it's not really binding.

8:50

Right. So it was enough.

8:51

It was enough to get him over the line. But can he change his mind?

8:56

Yes. This is really kind of the legal

8:58

question surrounding this. What some members of Congress wanted is,

9:00

is this written into law saying that this could never come back up again?

9:04

Instead, what they got is sort of, you know, sort of a memo from the Justice

9:06

Department saying this is this is going away, but this is, you know, continues

9:11

to be, uh, concerning to to some members of Congress that this could, you know,

9:14

come back up in future deals, you know, as we've seen, uh, you know, Trump, uh,

9:18

time and time again, uh, you know, has has said he didn't really want this to

9:21

go away, even though his allies and aides were telling him that this was

9:24

going to be sort of sacrificed, uh, you know, for the broader good of getting

9:27

his attorney general back across the line.

9:29

You know, we've seen this on on a whole broad range of issues where Trump says,

9:33

you know, I he he's moving on, but then suddenly brings it up.

9:35

We've seen this with the reflecting pool.

9:37

We've seen this with the ball room that he continues to fight on some of these

9:40

personal priorities for him. I don't think that what we saw last

9:43

night meets the strict definition of a voter Rama.

9:45

We had Stephen Dennis, our colleague, on, a few weeks back, and we talked.

9:48

We talked about that with him. But there was a string of legislation

9:51

that the Senate dealt with before departing Washington yesterday.

9:54

Another had to do with spending. And I want to ask you about that, Laura,

9:56

if I could. I mean, customarily or at least in

9:58

recent memory, there have been a lot of these kind of last minute spending bills

10:01

that have been quite acrimonious. They've led to government shutdowns.

10:04

Um, what was passed, I think was a 96 last night.

10:08

Um, was not that it didn't seem like it went down to the wire in the same way

10:11

that it hasn't in the past. Um, what did the Senate accomplish in

10:15

that regard? What does it mean for the fall as we

10:16

look ahead to the midterms in terms of how the government is funded?

10:19

Yeah. So what they passed is what's called a

10:21

continuing resolution or a CR. This is essentially a stopgap government

10:25

funding bill to keep the government open, um, past the deadline when a

10:29

current funding is set to expire at the end of September.

10:31

This would keep the government open until December 11th.

10:34

So essentially kicks the can down the road, uh, beyond, uh, the midterm

10:38

elections, which no one wants to see a shutdown happened during then.

10:41

What they haven't resolved yet is they haven't come to agreement with the

10:44

House. So good points for them doing their

10:46

advanced reading. But they have not reached the advanced a

10:49

group stage, uh, project of this. Um, so when the, uh, when the Senate

10:53

comes back on September 14th, I know they have just about two weeks to work

10:57

with the House to get a bill passed, so there's still a chance of a shutdown.

11:00

Chances ticked down significantly last night when they were able to at least

11:03

get something on paper that, you know, had broad bipartisan support.

11:06

Uh, but we still could be, uh, you know, talking about a shutdown in late

11:09

September and in other votes. The Senate also passed this, uh,

11:12

sweeping Russia sanctions bill yesterday.

11:14

Um, that has the senator, the late Senator Lindsey Graham s name on it.

11:17

We talked about a little bit earlier. So it does a couple things.

11:20

It allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Russian energy

11:24

importers. These are countries that are taking

11:27

energy from Russia. But it also has some other less popular

11:31

clauses in there, including it can give the president more flexibility to raise

11:34

import taxes on other major economies. and it seems to give him the ability to

11:38

unilaterally waive these sanctions if he decides they're not a good idea.

11:42

So this did get a lot of support. But can you walk us through what's in

11:46

this bill and how effective it's likely to be?

11:49

Yeah, this is really, um, kind of be a tricky one, as there was, uh, you know,

11:52

a kind of a classic, uh, um, uh, cooperation of coming together of a

11:56

bunch of different pieces. Something for everybody to like, but

11:58

also something for everybody to dislike. Um, so it had, um, these Russian

12:02

sanctions, which are, you know, very much something that, uh, both, uh, you

12:05

know, sort of hawks on the Republican side as well as some Democrats wanted to

12:08

see happen. But these sanctions come in the form of

12:10

tariffs, which Democrats are not super pleased about giving the president more

12:14

authority when it comes to tariffs. Um, this also embedded additional

12:17

sanctions. Um, also on, uh, on Iran and Iranian oil

12:21

producers, uh, to to to bolster some of the uh, sanctions that have been coming

12:24

from the, the Treasury Department and gives Congress a little bit more control

12:28

over that. This is really kind of the strongest

12:29

rebuke we've seen. Um, you know, in terms of the Iran war

12:32

coming from Congress, they've largely ceded their power, to the white House

12:36

and Trump on this matter. But, you know, it ultimately did get

12:39

across the finish line. Part of that is because this was one of

12:42

those centerpiece pieces of legislation that that Lindsey Graham had died just a

12:46

couple of weeks ago, had wanted to get done.

12:47

So this was really done in his legacy and, uh, you know, made it through the

12:51

process perhaps more quickly because, uh, you know, uh, that his friends were

12:55

doing it in his name versus something that could have gotten bogged down by

12:58

politics covering the waterfront here. Um, want to move on to the Federal

13:01

Reserve. And the president had some comments on

13:03

the fed when he sat down with Jake Sherman, of course, creature of Capitol

13:06

Hill, who made his way to the white House to have a sit down with the

13:09

president of the United States. He's with Punchbowl News.

13:12

And let me just play a little bit about that, about what he had to say about the

13:14

Federal Reserve. Should Warsh, Kevin Warsh or Fed Chair

13:17

avoid a rate hike before the election? Well, it's up to him a little bit, but

13:23

not completely. And he's got a board that's very

13:25

political, right. The United States should pay the lowest

13:30

interest rate in the entire world. So you think that he shouldn't hike

13:33

rates before the election? Uh, it's not totally up to him.

13:36

It's up to the board. I think he's great.

13:39

I won't be criticizing him. But I've said many times, you know, in

13:43

the old days, 20, 25 years ago, called in the old days, if you announced good

13:48

numbers, the interest rates went down because you were a bit of credit.

13:52

Makes sense. Right now it's a bit cocked.

13:55

Now it's all a different thing. If you announce great numbers,

13:59

everybody's depressed because we have great numbers.

14:01

They think, what are you going to do is raise interest rates?

14:04

But in the old days, when you announced great numbers, interest rates went down.

14:07

So I want to go back to those days.

14:11

The president there are planning on monetary monetary policy with Jake

14:14

Sherman of Punchbowl. Um, Lauren, let me just ask you about

14:17

something that kind of complemented this.

14:18

There was this letter that landed last week.

14:21

Dan Scavino, the head of the personnel office at the white House, sent a letter

14:24

to Lisa Cook, the fed governor, on the heels of all of the travails that she's

14:27

been through and the Supreme Court decision on her appointment, um, saying

14:31

effectively, she has to kind of respond to the allegations that I've been levied

14:33

against her with regard to alleged mortgage mortgage fraud here by, uh, by

14:37

mid-August, if I'm not not mistaken. Where do things stand with and what does

14:41

that say about the White House's approach here to the independence of the

14:43

Federal Reserve? Trump is not giving up on his attempts

14:47

to fire Lisa Cook. The Supreme Court earlier this summer

14:49

said that when he went about it, he didn't do it the right way.

14:52

So now we're seeing the white House, uh, try some different legal avenues to see

14:56

if they might be able to to oust her. Um, you know, we heard Trump say they're

14:59

like, look, this isn't all up to Kevin Warsh.

15:01

Of course, that's his is the chair at the Federal Reserve, but that there's a

15:04

broader board here. So you're seeing the white House sort of

15:06

pivot to seeing if they can pluck off other members of the board, that they

15:09

could then replace the people who would be more open to the president's, um, uh,

15:14

you know, view of wanting to lower interest rates, uh, rather than raise

15:17

them, uh, I'll know, you know, the president did get a little bit of, uh,

15:20

you know, a boost, perhaps. Yes, in yesterday's jobs report, which,

15:23

well, from sort of a top line perspective was was disappointing in

15:26

that, uh, you know, we saw some contraction in the, uh, you know, in

15:28

jobs, but it at least reduces some of the pressure on the fed to raise rates.

15:33

I don't know that that's necessarily going to lead to a rate cut.

15:36

Uh, but, you know, uh, we see the white House kind of working all angles here

15:39

to, to see if they're able to, to get the monetary policy that the president

15:42

desires. And speaking of retreading old ideas, we

15:46

also had this Trump birthright tourism executive order that came out this week,

15:51

in which the president seems to be trying to reimpose what the Supreme

15:54

Court also struck down on making it, restricting those who can qualify for

15:58

birthright citizenship, including staff, workers from foreign governments and

16:02

babies of mothers who lie about their intentions for visiting the country

16:06

while pregnant. But Laura, is there any way to enforce

16:08

this? This is a huge question mark on this.

16:12

Almost seems destined for legal challenges, and perhaps yet again,

16:15

another Supreme Court challenge in the coming months, if not year.

16:19

Uh, yeah. This is, uh, you know, essentially the

16:21

the white House lawyers have been working overdrive in the past couple of

16:23

weeks to respond to some of those losses that Trump had in the Supreme Court

16:27

earlier this summer. Uh, to now, um, get some, uh, some new

16:30

executive orders or new actions on the board here.

16:32

Uh, but the birthright citizenship was sort of one of his most stinging losses.

16:36

And, uh, you know, looks from, uh, you know, because of the constitutional

16:39

nature of the 14th amendment, there something that he's, uh, you know,

16:42

unlikely to have big legal successes on. Lord, great to catch up with you.

16:46

Thank you very much for giving us a lot to cover this morning and help us back.

16:48

We gave Laura her own vote. Arama, thank you for being so

16:51

knowledgeable on all those topics. We appreciate a lot going on a short

16:54

period of time. Our deputy Washington bureau chief and

16:56

Christine, just want to emphasize again, um, this is kind of anomalous.

16:59

How much happened last night in Washington, D.C.?

17:02

It is. And on a Friday, which back I was

17:04

speaking of reminiscing back in the day used to be quite a slow day for news.

17:08

And the only you only heard from the white House if there was something they

17:10

wanted to get out and not have a lot of attention drawn to.

17:12

But when people are waiting for action, hey, the very last date and time will be

17:16

interesting here over the next couple of weeks, just to see how lawmakers who are

17:19

now returning to their districts and home states, um, talk about all that's

17:22

happened here. And and I think they have some that

17:25

continuing resolution, I think is a positive thing.

17:26

It's going to allow them not to have to talk about that.

17:28

The perils of a potential shutdown. It'll be helpful.

17:31

And but, you know, we're still not seeing a big change of policy on the

17:34

Iran war, and it's still impacting gas prices, and it's still impacting those

17:37

kitchen table prices. And that's what I think lawmakers are

17:39

going to hear. The most said that the Pentagon asked

17:41

for 70 billion, not a part of that continuing resolution.

17:43

So something still looming here. They're exactly right.

17:46

All right. We just talked about President Trump's

17:47

thoughts on Kevin Warsh. How will the July jobs report impact

17:50

next month's decision on interest rates? That's straight ahead on Bloomberg this

17:54

weekend on Bloomberg Television radio Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg

17:57

Business. And.

18:01

Thanks for joining us live on Bloomberg this weekend.

18:03

I'm Lisa Mateo. Let's update you on today's top stories.

18:06

President Donald Trump counted $3 billion in U.S.

18:09

investments in critical minerals mining to reduce its reliance on China.

18:14

At the event at the State Department yesterday, the president said the

18:17

projects would create thousands of jobs and promote economic stability.

18:21

Trump also announced plans to spend over $180 million to support educational

18:26

programs for the industry. Accredited mining programs in the United

18:30

States now graduate less than 170 mining engineers each year, while China

18:36

graduates more than 3000. And half of our current mining workforce

18:40

is set to retire within the next three years.

18:43

Well thrown at it that the USA is never again reliant on hostile foreign nations

18:47

for the resources our country needs to dominate in the future.

18:51

In other news, President Trump has revived his threat to fire Federal

18:55

Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over unproven allegations of mortgage fraud.

18:59

And according to a letter seen by Bloomberg, cook was told that Trump is

19:02

considering removing her and gave her until August 26th to respond to

19:06

allegations made by the white House. David and Christina.

19:10

Lisa, thank you very much. Appreciate it.

19:11

Lisa. All right.

19:12

Stocks on Friday finished higher despite a much worse than expected July jobs

19:16

report. Employers cut 23,000 jobs last month.

19:19

No expectations were for job gains about 80,000.

19:23

The unemployment rate also dropped. What does this mean for fed

19:26

policymakers? We spoke with Anna Wong, the chief U.S.

19:28

economist for Bloomberg Economics. The difference between the US falling

19:34

unemployment rate on one hand and a very weak payroll on the other hand, in a

19:39

July was mainly because in the household survey, it shows that the labor force

19:45

participation continue to fall, uh, driven by people, uh, between age 16 to

19:53

24. And those folks are dropping out of the

19:56

labor market. And because you have a shrinking labor

19:58

pool, you don't just don't need a lot of, uh, increase in hiring to cause the

20:04

unemployment rate to go down. So it is a fall and unemployment rate

20:08

that's due to the wrong reasons. That's so interesting to me because I

20:12

always I find that part of that counterintuitive where it's like, well,

20:16

the unemployment rate down because people gave up and stopped looking for

20:19

work. It also seems an interesting indication

20:21

that it's in those ages that you talked about.

20:24

So it's younger people who are deciding not to be applying for these jobs.

20:28

What are they doing? Are they waiting to enter the workforce?

20:31

Are they seeking higher education or is that not clear?

20:34

I think it could be a more, uh, um, harmless explanation.

20:39

It could be that it is July after work, after all.

20:43

And people, especially the younger folks, folks who are waiting to go to

20:47

college, the the college students themselves, they're just off vacationing

20:52

and they are, uh, just not working in their usual summer job and not looking

20:57

for a summer job, uh, in the thick of July.

21:00

And I want to play a bit of sound here from Kevin Hassett, the president's

21:02

economic adviser. He was on Bloomberg Television on Friday

21:05

after these numbers were released, talking about, uh, participation,

21:08

talking about the data more broadly. Let's take a listen.

21:10

The labor force participation is kind of on a downward trajectory, which means

21:15

that the break even jobs number that is the jobs number you need.

21:19

So the unemployment rate doesn't go up. Is has gone from 120 hunters 30,000 a

21:25

few years ago to maybe about 40,000 now. And so what it means is that what the

21:29

market is used to look at, at, oh, it's like a normal tread the water kind of

21:34

jobs number, if it's around 100, is no longer true.

21:37

I want to get your reaction to a doctor. Has it said there and also just have you

21:40

talk a bit more about what you mentioned a moment ago, which is just that the

21:42

pool of workers here is getting smaller and smaller.

21:46

Yeah. So he mentioned this, uh, break even

21:49

concept. So economists, uh, estimate this, um,

21:55

monthly pace of job growth that's needed to keep the unemployment rate constant.

22:00

And, uh, Kevin Hassett just mentioned his estimate is 40,000.

22:04

Our estimate is, uh, around 55,000. The fed and a recent note, they think

22:11

that it's closer to zero. So, um, I think that's what he's trying

22:15

to. Kevin Hassett is trying to say to kind

22:19

of, uh. His point is that, well, well, we are

22:22

used to the, uh, you know, 100 K type of monthly, uh, payrolls print going

22:28

forward, even a soft ones, that's, uh, you know, between 0 to 50,000.

22:36

And in his mind, 40,000 is actually a tolerable and decent kind of number of

22:42

job growth. And and I think basically he's lowering

22:46

the bar for what constitutes a good labor market.

22:51

When you look at the picture overall, there were a few places where you saw

22:55

some job growth and there were places that were hit by job losses a little bit

22:59

more. Can you just talk us through the

23:00

different sectors and some patterns that you're seeing?

23:03

Yeah. So, um, the the places that produce the

23:06

largest drag is local government education sector.

23:10

And it saw a 50,000 decline in a job growth.

23:15

That's pretty substantial. Um, I think this is this decrease is a

23:21

noteworthy and it's not something that you can just sweep under the rug.

23:25

Uh, I think this is a sign that the, uh, higher long end, uh, of the yield curve

23:31

that has been rising for the last three, four months already, that is starting to

23:35

bite when you have higher long term Treasury yields, that puts upward

23:40

pressure on mortgage rates and that has been cooling the housing sector.

23:45

And, you know, local government derive a lot of their revenue, uh, from the local

23:50

property market. So when when local governments budget

23:53

are falling short in the first half of this year, going into the new fiscal

23:58

year, they will have less to allocate to schools.

24:01

So that's what I'm, uh, seeing. And also going forward to the fall right

24:06

before the September FOMC meeting, we have another jobs report, I continue to.

24:12

expect the local government sector education sector to be weak because for

24:18

this reason, I just don't think it's a one off thing.

24:21

Another place that's really bleak is leisure and hospitality, and that is due

24:26

to the reversal of the World Cup rate. But here, even here, I think it's, uh,

24:33

pretty alarming. So originally it was supposed to be, uh,

24:37

not alarming because, uh, in spring we saw that there was a huge increase in

24:43

hiring for leisure and hospitality. But in today's report, we also see a

24:47

massive downward revisions to the last two months, uh, job fair, and in fact,

24:53

100,000 downward revisions to jobs. And a lot of it came from leisure and

24:59

hospitality sector. You know, well, we lost that in April

25:03

and May. That was a huge increase in hiring in

25:07

and uh, hotels and uh, food and restaurants.

25:10

It actually didn't happen. It's or it's a very mild kind of

25:14

increase. And now with this, uh, last two months

25:18

of July and June's negative, large negative print and leisure and

25:22

hospitality, it basically means that on net, it's cutting down, uh, leisure and

25:28

hospitality, uh, level of employment from even before the World Cup.

25:33

Um, so I think I think, uh, that's also pretty weak.

25:36

All in all, I think the bad news in today's report, uh, Trump the positive

25:41

news. The only really good sector and in terms

25:45

of hiring growth is construction. And that's driven by, uh, basically data

25:51

centers. Uh oh.

25:52

Wow. That's where I is manifest in this, in

25:54

this report. I want to go back to the data.

25:56

And of course, you swim in day to day in and day out.

25:59

Uh, but I think there will be people who look at these revisions and think

26:01

there's an inherent problem with the data that we're getting on the job

26:03

market today. And you listen to the new fed chair,

26:06

Kevin Warsh, one of his many task forces is one that centered on data collection

26:10

and the way that the fed looks at looks at data.

26:12

Um, do you see an even problems with the way that we kind of gauge the health of

26:16

the labor market? Are we not getting the data that we

26:18

need? Is there some sort of deficit that that

26:20

is stark based on what we saw here in terms of the revisions today?

26:24

Yeah. So downward, persistent, downward, uh,

26:28

revisions to jobs data has been, uh, the trend for the last, uh, three years.

26:34

Really. Um, and whenever the direction of

26:37

revisions is primarily toward one direction, in this case, that was it

26:43

suggests that there's something more structural going on that, uh, the first

26:49

part of the data is not able to show. And usually what that means is that, um,

26:55

the labor market is not as strong as, uh, as as as one thought.

27:00

So this means that whenever you see a blow out job sprint going forward, like,

27:06

over 200. Okay.

27:07

I think we all have to take it with a grain of salt.

27:11

Now, as to the precise cause of these downward revisions.

27:15

Well, it is from the birth and death model and also from the lower response

27:20

rate in the first, uh, survey of the month.

27:23

Um, and I think the BLS is actively trying to address this problem.

27:28

Uh, earlier this year, the BLS announced a, um, methodological change in the

27:34

birth and death model that is supposedly, uh, will be better able to

27:40

capture these real time, uh, an increase in hiring and decrease in hiring from

27:45

jobs, going out of business or, uh, new businesses forming.

27:49

Um, I think I think that, uh, uh, I think the BLS and other federal agencies

27:56

are actively trying to work on this problem.

27:58

Um, and it is not because, um, any federal agencies did.

28:02

Attention is fudging the numbers. And speaking of Kevin Warsh, uh, they do

28:07

have another meeting coming up. Uh, it looks like your projections are

28:10

saying you're expecting giving weak payrolls and higher layoffs, which

28:14

you've been telling us. Do you think is a stronger signal, the

28:16

drop in employment rate? We're also expecting a soft CPI to come

28:20

out. You think that means fed rates are going

28:22

to hold in September? Yes.

28:25

So so many analysts after today's weak job report says all attention will be

28:31

focused on next week's CPI. Um, so my team has spent the last year

28:37

painstakingly working on collecting millions of prices every month.

28:43

Uh, we call this project the Bloomberg Price Project.

28:46

And our, um, assessment from looking at, uh, July's, um, prices is that it will

28:53

be a modest next week, year over year, core CPI is likely to come down to 2.4%.

29:01

And that is that the lowest year over year reading in more than five years?

29:06

That is a very significant because one of the very, uh, very popular talking

29:11

points amongst the FOMC hawks lately is that inflation has been about target for

29:18

more than five years, and therefore the fed needs to, you know, start hiking

29:23

regardless of, uh, you know, the data. Well, if CPI is coming down to a new low

29:30

in more than five years, it means that that talking point likely is expiring.

29:37

Um, taking away a one big reason for why so many FOMC members want to hike rates.

29:43

Maybe I could close by asking you, as we kind of linger here on, uh, the Fed and

29:47

Kevin Warsh, sort of how he might be processing the data that we got from the

29:51

Labor Department on on Friday of this week.

29:53

Um, during the last FOMC at the press conference, he talked about the strength

29:57

of the labor market. So much more attention was paid to the

29:59

inflation side of the Fed's dual mandate.

30:01

Does this at all complicate his thinking, the thinking of other policy

30:05

makers going forward here? Obviously it seems like absent him

30:08

talking as much as his predecessor did, were listening a lot more to fed

30:12

governors, other members of that committee, sort of.

30:15

What are you listening for? How does this change the way that the

30:17

fed is approaching the US economy? Well, you know, I think that today's

30:23

payrolls report vindicated, uh, Warsh position not to hike rates in the last

30:30

meeting, but it didn't vindicate his communications style.

30:36

Uh, the way he explained the decision last week was one month of data.

30:42

Doesn't matter. So by that logic, then to, uh, today's

30:46

weak payrolls data factor, very little in its thinking.

30:51

Um, but it factors a lot to the market's thinking.

30:53

Kevin Warsh also said that let's let the market, uh, determine the signal and

30:59

let's reduce that communication. So to get a cleaner read of market

31:04

reaction to data. Well, the market today tells Kevin Warsh

31:08

that, well, maybe you don't need to hike rates as much in September.

31:12

Uh, judges, judging from the futures pricing of uh, the chance of, uh, a rate

31:18

hike in September. All right.

31:20

And along our chief. Thank you for the US.

31:22

Sarah Bloomberg, thank you so much.

31:31

Thank you for joining us live on Bloomberg this weekend.

31:34

I'm Lisa Mateo. Let's update you on today's top stories.

31:36

Eastern China is bracing for Typhoon Dolphin.

31:39

Authorities have been shutting down schools and tourist activities.

31:43

The storm is expected to bring heavy rain, severe flooding and possibly

31:46

landslides when it makes landfall late Sunday.

31:49

National authorities will. They've declared a level three emergency

31:52

response, the second lowest level drought conditions on the island of

31:56

Puerto Rico has forced the U.S. territory to enforce water rationing

32:00

measures in San Juan and other major cities.

32:02

Starting yesterday, more than 180,000 customers will be without water for 48

32:07

hours at a time as part of an alternating schedule.

32:11

But thousands of Puerto Ricans were already experiencing water shortages up

32:15

to a year before that. For unknown reasons, people have been

32:18

lining up to receive water from tankers. July was the driest month on record for

32:22

San Juan in more than 120 years. In sports.

32:26

The PGA tour continues at Sedgefield County Club in North Carolina, topping

32:30

the leaderboard. Bo Hassler at 12 under par, followed by

32:33

a tie for second between Jordan Smith and Ben James at 11 under par.

32:38

Meanwhile, PGA tour CEO Brian Rollup says there's no merger and no

32:43

conversations with Liv golf and that the PGA tour is focused on its own product.

32:48

What PGA Tour Enterprises allowed us to do is to evolve the PGA tour, where most

32:53

professional sports have gotten. We've actually capitalized it and turned

32:57

it into a commercial business. And the strength of that commercial

33:00

business funds innovation. It funds player purses, of funds,

33:03

everything. Well, I spoke exclusively to Tom Keene

33:06

and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Money. David.

33:09

Christina, Lisa, thank you very much and interesting conversation.

33:11

We're going to play a bit later here about the future of Liv golf's.

33:13

This kind of dynamic between these two tours is really fascinating right now.

33:16

And whether there's enough audience for both of them, not aside from the

33:19

funding, whether people just want to see that much golf.

33:21

I know you love saying they love it. Yes.

33:25

Thank you. Thank you.

33:25

Lisa. All right.

33:26

This morning, we're taking a closer look at a migrant crisis that sparked a

33:30

global reaction. That's last week in the tiny Spanish

33:33

enclave of Qatar. About 70,000 people rushed across the

33:37

border from Morocco. Nearly 100 died trying to swim around

33:40

the border fence there. And a new weekend as some excuse me.

33:43

Mariam Charity, a senior researcher at Oxford University, looked at how this

33:47

crisis began. Much for joining us.

33:51

If you could just explain. For those who are not familiar what this

33:54

territory is, who it has historically belonged to, and why, it's contested a

33:59

little bit. Okay.

34:02

Well, uh, first of all, I, um, Salta is not in mainland Spain.

34:08

Ceuta is on the African continent, and, uh, it's been under Spanish control.

34:14

So to and its sister, um, city, uh, called Melilla under Spanish control for

34:20

um, uh, over 500, uh, years now. And, uh, and it's not part of the

34:27

Schengen space either. So, uh, when people, when Moroccans go

34:32

to south, uh, they're not necessarily in, uh, you know, in that Schengen

34:37

space. That's an important distinction to

34:39

highlight. Um, and so, uh, over the past 30 years

34:43

or so, um, you know, there have been successive, um, um, attempts to cross

34:50

regularly to, to those, uh, uh, Spanish enclaves.

34:54

And, uh, what happened last week was, uh, unprecedented, uh, in scale and

35:01

unfortunately in human loss as well. Uh, because within the space of 48

35:06

hours, it's been reported over 70,000, uh, Moroccans and, uh, a small number

35:14

of, of sub-Saharan migrants as well, uh, made it to, to South that, uh, they soon

35:20

kind of, uh, returned some of them voluntarily, but uh, is over uh,

35:27

reported about 3000. And so who are still and so uh, with the

35:32

a large minority of uh, majority of, of unaccompanied minors, lots of us have

35:38

seen the images and the video of this and, uh, perhaps are aware of the kind

35:42

of social media fervor surrounding all of it.

35:44

And in your piece for the weekend, you write, this did not resemble a centrally

35:47

coordinated propaganda campaign. What have we learned about what brought

35:51

this about? Absolutely.

35:52

I think there is no single explanation to what happened.

35:56

Social media might have acted as a catalyst and, uh, helped.

36:00

So synchronized kind of frustrations that already existed among the those who

36:06

made that question in terms of, um, unemployment, low wages or limited

36:12

mobility opportunities, uh, uh, to, to go to Europe or even to, uh, go to Sota,

36:19

as previously was the case for the local population.

36:23

Uh, in, in, uh, in Sota in uh, where uh, local locals were able to go for the day

36:29

and, and come back without needing any visa or, um, any there was a kind of a

36:36

local, uh, so arrangements, but unfortunately, since the pandemic that,

36:42

uh, and mutual kind of, uh, agreements is no longer there, which meant that,

36:47

um, those successive um, uh, um, mass crossings, uh, happened, uh, more

36:55

frequently. So, uh, yes, I think the, the,

37:00

you know, there is no robust evidence either to, to support the fact that this

37:06

was only smuggling, uh, networks that facilitated this, because actually the

37:11

closeness, uh, uh, to the, you know, between miracle and, and or at least the

37:17

neighboring town. And so, uh, you wouldn't need a

37:21

smuggler. So most of those who've made it made it

37:24

on their own and and also the kind of the political organization or state

37:30

institution being the sort of centrally behind it is, is not quite founded.

37:35

Let me ask you lastly, just about the legacy of this event.

37:38

So as you've been saying, there have been other mass crossings before,

37:40

nothing of this scale or magnitude. And we've seen the way that that many

37:43

politicians around the world have kind of focused on this as some sort of

37:47

rallying cry. Do you think that this will prevent

37:50

other efforts like this in the future? Given the amount of death that we saw as

37:54

a result of this, the amount of injury or does this portend, do you think more

37:58

attempts at kind of mass crossings like this in the future?

38:02

I think there are no guarantees. Uh, the, uh, you know, um, attempts of,

38:08

uh, maybe not of this kind, but, uh, attempts to cross irregularly to, to

38:13

Sota or mania for that matter, uh, won't happen because, uh, as long as you have,

38:19

uh, the same driving forces or driving factors, uh, in terms of unemployment,

38:25

in terms of, uh, you know, uh, uh, like close to 3 million, uh, Moroccans who

38:31

are not in employment, education, young Moroccans in education or training.

38:37

Um, you know, the the aspiration is still there to, um, get a better future.

38:44

To get a better job for themselves and their families.

38:47

So, um, that's, uh, probably, I think all the, you know, the, the floating,

38:54

uh, barriers and all of that are not going to dissuade these, um, young

38:59

people or, uh, yeah. To to to try and cross, uh, irregularly

39:04

as long as there is no legal pathway for them to go.

39:08

And, um, the second thing, uh, what I've noticed in terms of social media

39:13

activity following the crossing is that there are two different types of new

39:17

messaging going around. The first one is around, uh, those

39:22

who've made it to, to, um, narrating their experience, narrating how.

39:28

Um, actually, now that they've made it. Probably it's not worth it.

39:33

You know, like, they weren't able to eat for days.

39:35

They weren't able to access any, uh, help.

39:39

And so there is that messaging, uh, going around as well, and the other

39:44

messaging that has surged in the past few days.

39:47

Unfortunately, our messages from smugglers who are, uh, treating this as

39:53

a, as a golden opportunity because now they know that those, uh, you know,

39:59

those routes are going to be, uh, tighter in terms of, uh, um, uh,

40:05

immigration enforcement. So that then that makes the, the, the

40:10

opportunity for those migrants to, uh, cross on their own, less likely.

40:16

So they will have to re, uh, to, to get the help of a, um, a smuggler.

40:23

All right. And up next it is Bty dubs.

40:26

Um, now for something completely different.

40:28

David Gura, would you spend $100 for a hot dog?

40:31

Um, no, I would not. But before we get there, let me go back

40:34

to what you're just talking about. I mean, you've been tracking this story

40:36

very close to the Cedar story. Yeah.

40:38

I'm curious what stood out to you. I mean, for me,

40:42

it's the fact that she said this could happen once again.

40:43

I mean, I think we're looking at this kind of as a landmark event here, but

40:45

she was saying we saw it back in 2024. It's likely to happen once again.

40:49

What do you make of the swirl of social media surrounding all of this?

40:51

I mean, it's interesting because there's a lot of chatter online that this was

40:55

prompted by someone there's, you know, unfounded rumors of government agents

40:58

being in the crowd. It just seemed to organize for a lot of

41:01

people. But as our Bloomberg folks analyzed it,

41:04

it's all in a local dialect. It's all in Arabic.

41:06

But it does seem something is driving this.

41:08

And we've seen this with caravans in the U.S.

41:09

as well, right? Something sparks that and everybody

41:11

shows up at the border. So I think it is likely to happen again,

41:15

even though in this case, most of those migrants were sent back and are saying

41:17

pretty openly, don't do this, it wasn't worth it.

41:19

All right. Now back to that hot dog.

41:21

No, I would not spend hundred dollars. Looks quite the subject change.

41:23

All right, Lisa and Betty Dobbs, coming up next, we're going to dig into

41:26

something a little more cheerful. Stick with us.

41:35

All right. Welcome back to Bloomberg this weekend

41:37

or better. I'm Christina Ruffini with David Gray,

41:40

who's not going to argue with me about how you still think about $200 hot dog.

41:43

I think Lisa is about to tell us about the dog, as well as other stories you

41:47

might have missed this week. Lisa fast becoming an obsession.

41:50

Really? Are you starting with this or starting

41:51

with something else? All right, I'm going to start in slow.

41:53

We're going to play. We're going to get ready to build the

41:56

anticipation for the hot tub. It's hi everyone.

41:59

Can't wait. Okay.

42:00

I really can't stop talking about it. So please speak.

42:04

So David doesn't anymore. Preseason football.

42:06

Oh, my gosh, here we are. All right, I'll check my phone.

42:09

He's already starting to talk about the preseason football.

42:11

Okay, so Bloomberg Weekend has a story out.

42:13

Sports fans tear down $2,000 streaming boom to follow.

42:19

That is $2,100 hot dogs, by the way. He seems out of control as David Gura

42:25

just is the reason why these pro league, they're just signing these deals with

42:29

multiple services, right? Because you're sitting there trying to

42:31

watch the game and you're like, where to playing?

42:33

Is it on the worst time? Is it on?

42:34

This is it on Peacock. Is it on where we go?

42:37

How hard this was? Because we know I don't watch the sports

42:39

ball. But when I did actually try to watch the

42:41

World Cup, the only place I could find it on the 18 streaming services I get

42:45

was like Univision through NBC. I watched it in Spanish.

42:48

You did? Yeah.

42:49

There you go. Well, it was really hard, but

42:54

I can see it in Spanish. But I'm not going to keep going.

42:56

Let me let me break down how the 2000 comes out.

42:59

Okay. So these are for people who, let's say

43:01

you're you're from upstate New York and you moved to Florida, but you want to

43:05

watch your New York teams. Okay.

43:06

Here's what you got to do. You have to pay $130 a year for MLB to

43:10

watch Yankees. Maybe.

43:11

Okay, then you have to subscribe to ESPN plus during hockey season to watch the

43:16

Sabres. You have to subscribe to another five

43:18

streaming services to make sure you get every Buffalo Bills game, because

43:22

they're all in different streaming services.

43:23

Out of control, I'm telling you, out of control.

43:25

I know we all hated cable, but like, can we just go back to cable?

43:28

I really was a better deal. And I had cable and you still can't

43:31

watch because some are, like exclusive to these services.

43:34

So it's enough to make you go to a sports bar where you can watch it on TV

43:37

no matter what. But no, it's true.

43:39

And actually, so I have a son who's a Yankees fan.

43:41

It's quite hard because games will be blocked out as well.

43:43

You can't. You're local and you can watch it really

43:45

in the blackout. Yes.

43:46

So it's it's designed to infuriate. It is like what's the way.

43:50

Who else are you guys? Are you guys to find a cooking shows?

43:53

I am, I, I really am I do I love watching them okay, so guess who has

43:58

won. U.S.

43:59

Secretary of Health, Human services, RFK junior.

44:01

I did not know this, but the thing I like about cooking shows is it's not

44:05

politics. That was a radical turn.

44:08

Okay, it's got to show the Washington Post, though.

44:10

The show is on. It's on YouTube.

44:12

The reviews are out. This one's from the Washington Post.

44:14

RFK Junior's cooking show is a rich person solution to a poor person's

44:18

problem. Interesting.

44:19

Okay, so the show was basically based on this premise that yes, America's diet is

44:23

horrible, right? So he has a special celebrity chef each

44:27

time who goes along with them and they want to hear it is how to cook

44:30

delicious, nutritious meals with real ingredients at affordable prices.

44:33

So that's the price, I promise it is. But here's the problem that The

44:37

Washington Post found is that in an episode, he goes through salmon cakes.

44:41

Right? How to make it?

44:42

Um, the arugula salad with it. And he says the recipe is going to work

44:45

for about $4.91. The problem is that that's the price per

44:50

serving, bro. You're on a regular salary.

44:53

If you want a little over Uggla, you know, if you don't want to buy the whole

44:56

container of of mayonnaise, avocado mayonnaise.

44:59

So it doesn't take that a consideration. They say it really comes out to like

45:02

$73.46 a person. So that's like right.

45:05

Yeah. So it's a big difference if you think

45:07

about also like economies of scale when you're cooking for a family, like even

45:10

as a single person who tries to cook, like sometimes it just doesn't save you

45:13

that much money because you can't eat it fast enough, you can't make enough, and

45:16

you have to buy a giant thing of a little giant thing of olive oil.

45:20

Like, if you don't have that stuff in your house, it's really expensive.

45:22

Yeah. Second show here by a cabinet secretary,

45:24

Sean Duffy had that show travel show with his family.

45:27

But it's not out yet. Nobody knows where it is, so stay tuned.

45:29

We'll give you an update. He missed that.

45:30

All right, it's a smidgen I do. Okay, okay.

45:34

You want to get to the hot dog? Can we do it?

45:36

Let's do it. Why?

45:37

She. Wall Street Journal has it out.

45:39

You got to see the pictures. Okay.

45:40

The rise of the $100 hot dog is that caveat.

45:44

If you're if you're listening on radio, there is caviar on a hot dog.

45:47

Okay. This is we have a rich man's $100 sour

45:50

cream. Glitzy okay.

45:52

The golden glitzy. It has Mars Capone, 30 grand caviar, 24

45:55

karat edible gold flakes. And it's served on a fresh croissant

45:59

bun. And yes, there was a hot dog included in

46:01

that vodka that had gold flakes in it. Gold lager.

46:04

Oh, that was a college favorite. That was a class.

46:08

I continue to derail this segment. I'm just going to take it down there

46:10

because where can I get these hot dogs? Listen, you can get this, okay?

46:13

So there's one at, um, Breckenridge Ski Resort, right?

46:17

And these are the towels. Should have gone while you were in Aspen

46:19

instead of the tower. Voices.

46:20

You can get a tower of hot dogs for $60, $60.

46:24

And instead of a foot long, how about a two foot long pillow here?

46:30

And a 19 inch fan. All right, we are going off the rails.

46:35

Um, it's $45. First field in Denver.

46:39

Let's move on. Why is it all in Colorado?

46:41

It's because I hate that.

46:44

Because my home state, um, likes to eat things outside, and, I don't know, it's

46:49

just like stuff. There's no.

46:50

There's. So there's no score.

46:52

What's the story that fired you? Let's hit it.

46:55

Okay. So private colleges are admitting more

46:58

students who didn't apply. This is a bluebird.

47:00

This is actually interesting because I just met my daughter, received a letter

47:03

from a college she never applied for, and said that she got an 18,000

47:06

scholarship to it. So this is happening.

47:08

Here's a reason why. Okay, so the Common App, this is where

47:10

parents kind of sign on and you can click.

47:12

And it makes applying to schools super easy.

47:15

But they're now doing um, they're participating in um, uh, direct

47:19

admission. And so what that means is that, you

47:22

know, kids can just start getting these admitted into these colleges I have

47:25

never applied for. And so what it's doing, they're saying

47:28

it's opening up to a more diverse crowd. It's helping because all these colleges

47:32

are fighting to get students to apply, and the private ones are closing down a

47:35

lot. Um, so it's just a way to kind of

47:38

increase their enrollment. And, and students are saying it's

47:41

opening up their eyes to the scholarships that are saying that's good

47:45

for TCU is you take the SAT in those colleges.

47:48

It's not an offer, but they will try to recruit you.

47:50

And I did get a letter from a school I'd never heard of and ended up going there

47:53

because they gave me money. So it's kind of a cool thing.

47:55

I think that it is. It is like that more than $100 hot on

48:00

the David for this. So thank you Lisa.

48:02

With we are coming up on 8:00 in New York City.

48:05

Berkshire Hathaway set to release its earnings just moments from now.

48:09

We're going to watch as that crosses the terminal, bring you those results as

48:12

they come through. And if you're not sick of us, the next

48:13

hour of Bloomberg this weekend starts right now.

48:22

You.

48:27

See me.

48:35

Welcome to Bloomberg this weekend live from New York with David Gura, Christina

48:41

Ruffini and Lisa Mateo. The latest headlines, analysis, big

48:46

interviews, and the stories that hit home on your days off.

48:58

Welcome back to Bloomberg this weekend. It is 8:00 am in New York from our world

49:02

headquarters in Manhattan. I'm Christina Ruffini.

49:04

I'm David Gura alongside Lisa Mateo. Bring you the latest breaking news

49:07

reporting, analysis live this morning, every weekend morning from 7:00 to 10:00

49:11

Wall Street time. We're going to focus on markets in the

49:14

economy here in this coming hour. Uh, Berkshire Hathaway reporting

49:17

earnings, second quarter earnings uh 12.98 billion up 16% year over year.

49:22

We're going to dig into those a little bit more in at least just watching these

49:24

rolling across the terminal as well. Uh, but another record setting week for

49:28

Wall Street on the heels of a jobs report that really surprised a lot of

49:32

folks here. The unemployment rate ticking down,

49:34

right. 23,000 job losses.

49:35

Not a great jobs report, but because projections are now likely that interest

49:39

rates won't go up. It seems like the market took that and

49:42

ran with it. And we're gonna talk about that, and

49:44

we're gonna talk about Berkshire Hathaway, which, uh, they're, you know,

49:47

the big first, uh, reporting was our first day, and we ended up also having

49:51

the year on for that day. Other matters intervened.

49:53

So it's it'll be nice to dig into that and kind of see how the company doing.

49:56

Uh, since the big guys stepped away and we've got Abel in charge now.

49:59

All right, um, Lisa Mateo watching the terminal as I am, as you are.

50:03

The numbers are coming in. Give us the headlines, if you would,

50:05

Lisa. All right.

50:06

Yeah. Investors are really looking for more

50:07

clues about just how CEO Greg Abel is going to steer the company after taking

50:11

over from Warren Buffett this year. So I want to get to some of them.

50:14

One of them is coming across right now. This is Berkshire Hathaway.

50:16

This is second quarter earnings uh 12.98 billion.

50:21

That's year over year. That's an increase of 16%.

50:25

So that's what we have coming across right now.

50:27

But a lot has been going on with this. I mean this comes after Berkshire went

50:30

on all the way in on the housing bet with the acquisition of Taylor Morrison

50:34

home. Uh, we're going to have Bloomberg

50:35

Intelligence, Matthew Palazzolo, he's going to go into more details, um, with

50:39

those numbers later this hour and what they're going to do with that $400

50:43

billion cash pile on top of it that, uh, so many people are paying attention to.

50:48

Let's get to some other news this morning.

50:49

The Senate, while they have confirmed President Donald Trump's former personal

50:53

attorney as attorney general. Now, in an early morning vote, this

50:56

happened. The Republican led Senate had voted 50

50:59

to 49 to make Blanche the second confirmed attorney general since Trump

51:03

returned to the white House last year. Also this morning, the Senate has passed

51:07

a stopgap spending bill to avert a government shutdown at the end of

51:11

September. The move shows how both parties they're

51:14

looking to avoid a fight before midterm elections.

51:16

The vote was 90 to 6 to keep federal funding at current levels through

51:20

December 11th, and prevent the Trump administration from transferring funds

51:24

to the Border Patrol. Overseas, Russia and Ukraine exchange

51:27

overnight strikes. Ukraine's capital will came under attack

51:30

by ballistic missiles and drones, with fires reported in several districts and

51:35

three people killed in the Kiev region and a fire.

51:38

It was sparked at an oil refinery in southern Russia by Ukrainian drone

51:41

debris, injuring five people. That's according to the regional task

51:44

force. Meanwhile, the U.S.

51:46

Senate, they passed a new Russia sanctions bill championed by the late

51:50

Senator Lindsey Graham and authorizes punishing tariffs on China, India and

51:54

other top buyers of the country's oil and gas, as well as extended Iran

51:58

sanctions. The senator, Richard Blumenthal, called

52:01

it a momentous day. President Zelensky is watching in

52:04

Ukraine. Vladimir Putin is watching in Moscow.

52:08

I'd like to think Lindsey Graham is watching as well and proud of what we've

52:12

done, because today we send a message to vibrant fruit.

52:16

You will not win this war. The bipartisan legislation that passed

52:21

the Senate 86 to 11 and must still pass the House and a federal appeals court.

52:26

They have ruled that President Trump cannot build the white House ballroom

52:29

without congressional approval, and must stop construction of the $400 million

52:33

project. The president called the decision unjust

52:36

and said he would appeal it to the Supreme Court.

52:39

David, Christine, I just want to get you a few more headlines on Berkshire that

52:42

just came out. Uh, the cash pile that we were talking

52:44

about, it falls to 365.51 billion. Um, in the second quarter.

52:49

So that was under a lot of, um, a number that a lot of folks were waiting to

52:53

hear. We're going to dig into that more, as

52:54

you see, because of that acquisition party part.

52:57

Right. Still pretty sizable are 365 billion.

52:59

Exactly. So more on that to come here.

53:01

Um, in just a few minutes time. All right.

53:03

Thanks, Lisa. All right.

53:04

As Lisa just mentioned, we've got breaking news.

53:06

Just hours ago, the Senate narrowly confirmed Todd Blanch as attorney

53:10

general, but was down party lines 50 to 49.

53:13

Republican Senators Lisa murkowski and Susan Collins sided with Democrats,

53:17

while outgoing Senator Bill Cassidy decided kind of at the last minute to go

53:21

ahead and confirm Lynch. The incoming attorney general was a

53:23

controversial pick by President Trump. Is Todd Bland served as the president's

53:26

lead defense attorney for the 2024 hush money trial.

53:30

Joining us now is Bloomberg's senior D.C.

53:31

editor, Wendy Benjamin. And Wendy, great to have you with us

53:34

here. As we take stock of what was a busy

53:37

evening and early morning in Washington, D.C..

53:40

Talk a bit about this. I mean, Todd Blanche had been serving as

53:42

acting attorney general, and I'd been wondering over the last few weeks sort

53:46

of what difference it would make, notionally to have him there in an

53:48

acting capacity or a permanent one. The president even floated keeping

53:51

around in an acting capacity. If he could get the votes here before

53:54

the midterm elections. Um, talk about the importance of this

53:57

vote and indeed, what Bill Cassidy supported the nomination says about the

54:01

Senate today. Sure, David.

54:03

And as Lisa was going through all those bills, you know, um, many a couple of

54:08

them passed overwhelmingly Bipartisan language was it?

54:12

Which is amazing these days. But, uh, this one squeaked by 50 to 49.

54:17

Todd Blanche is not popular with either party in Washington.

54:21

If it wasn't for Bill Cassidy once again voting, apparently holding his nose, um,

54:27

saying he was holding his nose for this, this nominee, um, it wouldn't have gone

54:31

through without intervention from the vice president.

54:34

So it's, um, it's an interesting nomination.

54:37

I mean, Trump could have kept him as acting for as long as he wanted, but it

54:42

never you know, they like the permanence of having a Senate confirmed cabinet

54:48

member. Um, so as you said, Todd Blanche was

54:51

Trump's personal lawyer during his criminal trials.

54:55

And, um, continues to act in a way that has made people suggest he is still

55:00

Trump's personal lawyer. The Justice Department once treated as

55:04

an almost independent agency in the executive branch.

55:07

Trump has really involved himself in every detail, directed prosecutions.

55:12

And Todd Blanche is willing to go along with that.

55:15

And that gave the two Republican senator Susan Collins

55:19

and Lisa murkowski. Enough pause, especially over this tax

55:23

audit deal and the weaponization fund. But Bill Cassidy was able to find it.

55:29

Yeah. Despite his deep concerns, as he put it,

55:32

to, uh, to vote for him. It was a little bit of a we were talking

55:35

earlier a better the devil you know, argument saying he didn't know, you

55:39

know, he's better than some of the other options that could possibly come if he

55:42

weren't in charge. I also want to ask you about this Russia

55:45

sanctions bill, because we heard Senator Blumenthal praising it and saying it's a

55:49

message to Vladimir Putin, which is true on its face.

55:51

But there's also a lot of carve outs here.

55:53

Right? There's a lot of ways the president can

55:55

decide not to enact sanctions or wave sanctions if Congress puts them in.

55:59

And it also could give the president more flexibility to raise, uh, tariffs

56:03

and import taxes on other major economies.

56:07

That's right. Um, I'm not quite as familiar with this

56:10

as I should be this morning, but I do know that yes, what this bill does is

56:15

really increase tariffs on countries that do business with Russia.

56:20

Russia is sanctioned to the hilt. Um, there probably are very few more

56:25

sanctions we could add. The US could add, um, on top of Russia.

56:29

But what this does is punish countries who continue to supply Russia with goods

56:34

and services that it needs to, you know, to keep its economy running in the face

56:38

of this grinding, grinding war that Putin just won't.

56:41

Um, CNN to uh, so, yes, this bill also passed incredibly bipartisan, I think 86

56:49

to 11, something like that. That's that's not good math, but maybe

56:52

not. Don't make me do math on a Saturday

56:56

morning. No.

56:56

That's fair. That's always my rule.

56:57

I support that, but it definitely was also in honor of Lindsey Graham, um, the

57:04

Recently late senator who really, really championed this bill and was a huge

57:09

supporter of Zelensky. And it sort of brought that unity about

57:13

the Ukraine war back to the Senate, where they had been divided.

57:17

President Trump isn't crazy about this because he he says that his ability to

57:24

convince Putin to join the peace table will be hurt by this.

57:29

But Putin hasn't shown much willingness to show up at the peace table anyway.

57:33

One day, very quickly here, uh, we had these, uh, jobs data yesterday.

57:37

Um, we heard from Lisa Cook on the heels of that, the Federal Reserve governor.

57:40

And we also learned that a letter had been sent from Dan Scavino of the white

57:43

House personnel office to Governor Cook, uh, telling her the white House is

57:47

demanding more information about, uh, her mortgages as they look for ways to

57:51

get her out of that position. In the wake of that Supreme Court

57:53

decision. I'd love to get your read on the

57:55

significance of that, this this three page letter again, that she received and

58:00

what it means for the institutions independence and the path forward here

58:03

for the president when it comes to, uh, wielding influence over the central

58:07

bank. Right.

58:08

Well, that's another agency or organization in which he definitely

58:12

wants to put his thumb on the scale of everything they do.

58:16

You know, he threatened to Powell Friar Jerome Powell, the former chairman, um,

58:20

numerous times. And in fact, Powell, after his term as

58:23

chair of the fed and had decided to stay on the board just to sort of keep an eye

58:28

on the Fed's independence. Lisa Cook, we thought, had survived this

58:33

attempt to fire her, um, on this sort of flimsy charge of, you know, something

58:39

wrong with her mortgage payments where she claimed lots of different businesses

58:43

were I mean, lots of different properties were her primary residence.

58:46

She claims it's a clerical error. There are a number of Trump

58:49

administration officials who have the same thing on their mortgage papers of

58:53

multiple residences. Um, and so, uh, you know, she thought it

58:57

was clear when the Supreme Court said, no, you can't fire her.

58:59

And now he's trying again. Um, you know, he's got the chairman he

59:03

wants. Um, and there is, um, he's sent her this

59:07

letter saying, you know, you're back up and in the hotseat.

59:11

So, you know, I'm sure her her lawyers are on top of it.

59:14

Um, the courts will be on top of it, and we'll see what happens.

59:17

All right. Our senior D.C.

59:18

editor, Wendy Benjamin, and joining us from Washington this morning.

59:21

Thanks, money. Let's stick with those jobs numbers now.

59:23

Wall Street seems unfazed by Friday's dismal jobs report.

59:26

All major indexes finished in the green, with the S&P 500 closing at a record

59:30

high for the 26th time this year. The Nasdaq and Dow also ending with

59:35

their best week since April. Joining us now with more is Joe Quinlan,

59:38

managing at head of market market strategy at Bank of America private

59:42

bank. Joe, great to have you with us on this

59:43

Saturday morning. Thank you very much for for making the

59:45

time and definitely want to talk about your most recent note and analysis of

59:49

the market, but let me just start with the jobs data and sort of how you

59:51

process what we saw yesterday and what it says to you about the health of this

59:54

U.S. economy.

59:56

Well, it speaks to the underlying health of the economy.

59:59

David, despite the myth, when you go beneath the surface, you see the fact

60:04

that we had some seasonality with a local government World Cup.

60:07

But what I looked at was very encouraging the increase in jobs for

60:11

construction and manufacturing, healthcare.

60:13

So I spent a lot of time talking to our bank clients, commercial clients, and

60:17

they're talking about adding like, we're not shutting it in some cases using AI

60:22

automation. But the job market remains, I think,

60:24

pretty on solid footing. But are you at all concerned that even

60:28

the job growth we're seeing construction jobs?

60:30

In my head, when I read that, I thought, oh, we're building houses again, that's

60:33

great. And then we dig into it and it's mostly

60:35

AI data centres. It seems like it's all the same circular

60:39

AI world. I mean, the exposure there to me seems

60:42

very high, but you're the you're the expert.

60:44

You tell us if you if you're still bullish on this, you know, tell me I'm

60:47

wrong. No, no, you're not wrong.

60:49

And you're definitely you're on track with that.

60:52

You're seeing a huge contribution to GDP Industrialization demanded the materials

60:59

demand from data centers. But also you're seeing foreign companies

61:02

coming here increase their production chemicals, automobiles and mobile parts.

61:07

You're seeing other U.S. companies build out the plant, whether

61:10

it's a little bit, you know, factory in addition.

61:12

So it is they data center driven. But there's a lot more to this

61:17

manufacturing buildout, construction buildout than just data centers.

61:20

But it is overwhelmingly it'll alleviate that a little bit here in the 2728.

61:25

But when I sit I see the industrialization, the manufacturing

61:29

capacity coming back. And related to that defense, defense

61:32

spending. We need more missiles, ammunition,

61:35

munitions, you name it. That's help driving it growth as well.

61:39

Joe, I want to get your perspective on the market that we're in, the moment

61:42

that we're in. And your latest note, which I mentioned

61:44

a moment ago, it's kind of a refutation of the bear case on on the U.S.

61:47

economy and U.S. markets right now.

61:49

I read one line from it. Amid the gloom, something curious keeps

61:52

happening. You write, the dire predictions of the

61:54

worrywart never happened. Disappointing and surprising market

61:58

bears. What explains the resilience series as

62:01

you see, and what gives you grounds for the optimism that you have about the

62:05

markets in the economy? Well, David, the background to that note

62:09

was like every meeting I go into, it usually starts with the clients.

62:11

Like I'm really surprised about the consumer, the dollar, the federal budget

62:15

deficit, the underlying strength of the economy.

62:17

So we wrote the piece kind of, you know, leaning against that narrative.

62:20

Because when you look at the consumer, sure, it's k shaped.

62:24

We know that higher income households are out there spending the federal

62:27

budget deficit. I've been debating that for like three

62:30

decades. So that's an issue.

62:32

But we we're having a we can manage it. The weaker dollar obituary has been

62:36

written how many times. I mean, so there's all these kind of

62:40

bricks of worries in the wall, right, so to speak, that we got to work through.

62:44

And it does weigh on sentiment, and it can keep people out of the market when

62:47

they should actually be leaning into the market.

62:50

So not that we're not not that we don't have any problems, right?

62:53

We got big issues to deal with with our dollar, foreign demand, federal budget

62:58

deficit, but the underlying capacity of this U.S.

63:01

economy to absorb the shocks, take the blows reset is underappreciated still.

63:07

And to me that's a that's a lean into any pullbacks to buy.

63:11

You also talk about a couple sectors you're following.

63:13

One that surprised me was U.S. solar stocks rose on Friday after the

63:17

president ordered this 15% new tariff and a price floor for um, polysilicon

63:23

derivatives, which were not really on my list of things I needed to know this

63:26

week. But, um, why is this relevant and why

63:28

are you seeing this movement in this energy sector, especially at a time when

63:31

we're not hearing a lot about solar anymore, a lot about diversification of

63:35

our energy sector, despite the need and despite what's going on in the Gulf.

63:39

Well, I'll take it from the macro level. We need every source of energy in this

63:43

country right now, whether it's fossil fuels or renewables.

63:47

So the Gulf War, back early in February, that kind of gave a new life to

63:52

renewable sector in general, not just in United States, but even globally in

63:55

Europe as well. You look at China, Russia, China, they

63:58

say all burns, a lot of coal. Well, that's true, but so do we.

64:01

But we're also using a lot of renewables.

64:03

So I think it's all hands on deck when it comes to generating power.

64:07

And that includes renewables. So I think that's been a hidden corner

64:10

of the market that's done very well. But I think that trade is now becoming

64:14

recognized. Joe, I'm not going to put in your

64:16

position. We have to talk about specific

64:18

companies. But let me just ask you about AI

64:20

broadly. I imagine when you walk into those rooms

64:21

where you're dealing with some some bearish sentiment, there's probably some

64:25

concern that you're hearing about AI's future, the path forward.

64:28

We've just been through the part of earnings season that dealt with these

64:31

hyperscalers and their attitude toward the growth of AI.

64:36

What do you take away from that? How does that change or reshape the AI

64:39

narrative as you see it? Well, the biggest thing, David, I'm

64:43

looking at is like, okay, well, you know, 27 and 28 when we kind of get back

64:47

beyond the data center, build out what picks up the slack, and I think it will

64:51

be picked up by the transportation, the grid, defense spending.

64:55

But the artificial intelligence we're looking at very carefully.

64:58

How are companies leveraging this new technology to drive margins?

65:02

And you're hearing more and more companies speak to this every earnings

65:07

every quarter. Right.

65:07

So we're seeing that happen. It's not going to happen all at once.

65:10

It's not a hockey stick. You know you go sideways and then

65:13

straight up. So it's happening.

65:14

And we're that belief that by the time we get to 28, 29, 2030, you're looking

65:19

at a different economy, a different workforce, increased productivity.

65:23

So that keeps us very constructive on US equities overall.

65:27

But there's going to be job displacements right.

65:29

We know that. But I think when when we release labor

65:33

because of automation or technology then we upskill it.

65:36

And that means more income. That means higher paying jobs.

65:39

So I believe the I we're early innings with the build out early innings with

65:43

the adoption and early innings when it comes to productivity.

65:46

But I think it's coming down the track and so do a lot of investors.

65:49

Joe Quinlan, the head of market strategy at Merrill Bank of America, thank you

65:52

very much. Appreciate the time.

65:53

Thanks for joining us on this Saturday morning and hope to have you back on

65:56

again soon here. And Christina, from what he was saying

65:58

there at the end, I mean, I think it's really fascinating, as we talked to Anna

66:01

Wang about that jobs report yesterday, we're still at a point where there's a

66:03

lot of questions about the way that I is affecting the US economy, but, um, not

66:08

enough hard data yet to draw really concrete conclusions, and also whether

66:11

the technology as a whole is going to be really profitable and how to monetize

66:15

it. All right.

66:16

Coming up. Berkshire Hathaway just reported second

66:19

quarter earnings. We're going to dig into those with more

66:20

details ahead. And what Greg Abel's big bet on a home

66:24

buying company means for the company that's ahead on Bloomberg this weekend.

66:35

Welcome back. We're going to turn to that breaking

66:37

news for Berkshire Hathaway, the company reporting second quarter earnings just a

66:40

few minutes ago with us. Matthew Paul Zola senior PNC insurance

66:43

equity analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.

66:45

He's brought a friend as well. That is the squish, mellow Warren

66:48

Buffett, which I should say. Matt, before we get to the substance of

66:51

these earnings, this is a Berkshire Hathaway.

66:52

This is part of the conglomerate which is part of the conglomerate.

66:55

It is so a very important part of the conglomerate.

66:58

Uh, they bought a company called Alleghany a couple of years ago.

67:01

They owned a company called Jazz Wares, which makes these swish, mellow toys.

67:06

Uh, and then every year at the annual meeting, they started making a

67:11

commemorative. Buffett and Munger squish mellow, and

67:14

people line up around the around the convention center.

67:16

And you are people because you didn't get one.

67:18

You line up for this always people that are lined up for this.

67:20

Yes. All right.

67:21

I've taken this on another diversion and I apologize for that.

67:23

Well, you know, earnings just came out. I haven't seen the line item for the

67:26

swish melos yet. But just walk us through the main

67:29

takeaways here. I looked at your preview of this

67:30

earnings roughly in line with what you expect to do.

67:33

I think you said 11 to 12 billion. So right near there, looking at my cheat

67:36

sheet a little bit better than I thought, um, the insurance earnings

67:40

better kind of across the board. Everything better.

67:42

I was a little disappointed with the share repurchase.

67:45

So they bought back about $4.5 billion worth of their own shares.

67:49

That is much more than they've done over the past couple of years, but less than

67:53

I thought they were going to. Given some disclosures they made in

67:55

July. You thought around eight.

67:56

You thought around eight. Because why are they doing that?

67:59

So I think a couple of reasons. So Greg Abel is taking over and my

68:05

guess. They don't really talk to anybody.

68:06

But my guess is that he's viewing the intrinsic value of businesses a little

68:11

bit higher these days. So number one, the insurance businesses

68:16

they're over earning. But I think some of the gains are making

68:20

or sustainable. So I think he's looking at that a little

68:22

bit better. Burlington Northern the railroad he's

68:25

got his eyes on that. He called them out at the annual

68:27

meeting. He said they're going to improve their

68:29

margins there. So I think the underlying earnings power

68:31

of those businesses are improving. They have tons of cash.

68:34

So I think he's putting some of that to work.

68:36

I want to talk to you about that cash though, because their their pot did

68:39

fall. I mean, it's still an enormous number.

68:41

Um, how much of that? I mean, they bought this homebuilder,

68:44

Taylor Morrison, for 6.8 billion, but the math isn't quite matching the cash

68:48

to get more than that. So they did a couple things.

68:50

They also bought $10 billion worth of Google stock.

68:53

Um, they bought a stake in a Japanese insurance company, Tokio Marine.

68:57

So they actually this was a, uh, a spending quarter for them.

69:01

It looks like I didn't get the full numbers, but it looks like they were a

69:04

net buyer of stocks over six months. So putting more money to work than

69:09

Buffett was doing in his in his last years as CEO.

69:11

Um, let's talk just a bit about Greg Abel.

69:13

So this is the second quarter of earnings that we've got from from him

69:16

behind you. We had pictures of him at Sun Valley at

69:18

the Allen Company Conference. Um, how is his tenure going thus far?

69:23

This was a, um, hotly anticipated transition.

69:27

A lot of people wondering sort of how much continuity there would be between

69:29

Berkshire under Buffett to him. What have we learned over these last two

69:33

quarters? What have you learned since you were out

69:34

in Omaha for the big event a few months back?

69:36

Yeah, I think, um, he is much more, uh, communicative than than Buffett was.

69:41

And what does that mean? I mean, I've been to the Berkshire

69:43

website, which is janky. I mean, it's like is from like, not

69:45

even, you know, HTML out of, uh, AOL days.

69:49

Yeah. It's, um, not in that way.

69:52

More in the annual meeting talking, having more managers.

69:55

They are giving more detail on the companies.

69:58

Buffett was always it was great to hear his his kind of wit and wisdom, but he

70:01

was really not talking too much about the operating results of the companies.

70:05

Uh, so Abel is doing that. He seems to be much more focused on the

70:09

operations of the companies. The nitty gritty, Buffett had said over

70:13

the past couple of years that he was passing people off to Abel regardless.

70:17

So he was kind of running the ship for a while.

70:19

Anyway, yeah. Um, so I like what he's doing so far.

70:23

Impressed. Especially like seeing him put capital

70:26

to work. Does he have his own squash mallow?

70:29

And how many of these reports do we have to have before I almost feel bad for the

70:33

guy he's going to spend? I mean, he could have this job for ten

70:35

years. We could still be comparing him to his

70:37

predecessor. I mean, that's, you know, the blessing

70:40

and the curse of being the CEO of, uh, Berkshire Hathaway.

70:43

All right. You mentioned the railroad business.

70:44

Talk a bit more about that. If you let me just a crucial benefit, a

70:47

crucial part of this portfolio for you for a long time.

70:49

Yeah. So, um, they bought the railroad

70:52

business in Berkshire. Is is huge on these, uh, monopolistic,

70:58

uh, necessary businesses that will be around for as long as time.

71:03

Right. So that was the impetus behind buying

71:06

Burlington Northern two years ago. What has happened is the, um, metrics

71:11

versus public peers are just worse. So they're their operating ratio, which

71:17

is a railroad metric. I'm an insurance guy, but, you know,

71:20

rail, uh, moonlight as a railroad guy. Um, sure, sure.

71:24

The that metric has been worse than their their closest competitor.

71:28

And Abel is really focused on improving that.

71:32

And it's it's languished for years. So I think, uh, should they do that?

71:38

Increases the intrinsic value of the business.

71:40

It's it's still a great business for them, but, uh, needs improvement.

71:45

One of the places it seems he has stayed pretty consistent is this concentrated

71:48

portfolio and really backing these, you know, this handful of just these five

71:52

big stocks Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola, Bank of America, alphabet,

71:56

Google. Is that going to stay consistent, do you

71:58

think is that what investors are still looking for?

72:00

Is that continuity, or do they want him to diversify that portfolio at some

72:03

point? He explicitly said, we're going to focus

72:06

on this core group of stocks and not trade much around them.

72:10

Um, I don't think people want to see him, uh, jumping into new names.

72:14

They'll I think they'll make moves around the edges, but I think these are

72:16

going to stay the core portfolio. Uh, they made some moves around.

72:19

Apple took out a lot of Bank of America stock over the past couple of years, so

72:24

I think it stays pretty steady. We may want to one back here to the home

72:28

building acquisition they made. But before we get there I mean your

72:30

bread and butter is property casualty Insurance is hugely integral to this

72:34

business as well. What have we seen broadly in the sector

72:38

and sort of how does that manifest in the data that we got?

72:40

Yes. So one of the biggest things that's

72:42

swinging there results is Geico. So um, they owned Geico.

72:46

Uh, they've owned it since the 70s. The auto insurance business saw a big

72:52

spike in losses and post Covid because of, uh, the cost of auto parts.

72:58

So what all of the auto insurance companies did was raise rates a lot.

73:01

I don't know if you experienced. I have strongly felt this

73:05

car, but you drove a car, you probably experienced this and this was across the

73:09

board. So what happened is they raised these

73:11

prices. All of the results of the auto insurance

73:13

companies got much better, uh, to kind of record levels.

73:17

So now what all of the big players are trying to do is grow.

73:20

So they're all now fighting. So the pro tip is shop your auto

73:25

insurance are good for the company. They're not going to just lower your

73:28

price. But if you shop around you probably get

73:29

a better deal on your auto insurance because all of the big names are

73:32

fighting. So that's going to be the big story is

73:34

the swing in the auto insurance results. And that will by billions of dollars

73:38

swing their earnings. He plays in railroads and he plays in

73:40

uh, insurance recommendations as well. Multifaceted way.

73:44

Before we let you go, I want you to play in home building.

73:47

I want to go back to the Taylor Morrison acquisition, because it did seem like an

73:50

odd time to be betting on the homebuilding market in the U.S..

73:54

And we were talking in the newsroom. We were like, well, maybe they also

73:56

build data centers, know they build homes.

73:58

Why now? And this was something that was like

74:00

cheered by Buffett. He said this was a great acquisition.

74:02

So they have home building businesses that they own.

74:05

Yeah. Um, so this was kind of a compliment to

74:09

the home businesses that they already own.

74:11

I think it's, uh, they, they do manufactured homes or just Clayton

74:15

Homes. So they build the home and then they

74:16

bring you your house and they put it down.

74:19

Uh, this is more building, more higher end homes on site.

74:23

So it was a nice compliment to the businesses that they own.

74:26

Berkshire is not looking to time things and get it kind of right at the exact

74:30

moment I think they want to be in these necessary businesses, like home building

74:35

is going to be necessary over time. So I think that was probably the impetus

74:40

for this deal rather than, you know, maybe now's the exact right time to buy

74:43

this company. All right.

74:44

Let me ask you lastly here, just about the stock.

74:46

Maybe we can kind of end on that. So upward three ish percent here over

74:50

the course of the year. Um, you don't have to follow the S&P

74:53

that closely. No.

74:53

That is lagging behind where the S&P is. What is your read on.

74:57

What are folks read on sort of how the stock is doing relative to to the

75:00

broader index. Yeah I mean the one of the curses of

75:03

Berkshire is it gets seen as this, uh, market proxy, but not the not the

75:07

current market, which is now dominated by I, I think, I mean, this stock is the

75:12

quintessential anti-air name, right. So I think when you see those swings in

75:16

tech, it should probably go the other way, but it hasn't.

75:19

Uh, I think the overhang is still there. The Buffett, the Buffett kind of hang

75:23

over, uh, and people kind of waiting still on Greg Abell, even though I think

75:27

he's doing a great job, I think there's going to be that overhang for a little

75:30

bit longer. Um, but the value of these industrial

75:35

businesses, manufacturing businesses, I think will manifest themselves more over

75:39

time. Matt, thank you very much.

75:41

Thank you for joining us with this breaking news.

75:43

And thank you for bringing swish mellow. Warren Buffett.

75:46

Yeah, he was a quiet guest. But you know, we take up some space.

75:48

We appreciate taking a back seat to Greg Abel.

75:50

Squish me, Greg and Lisa Mateo, we're going to go back to you now for the

75:53

headlines. Can you get us updated?

75:55

You got it, guys. Let's get right to it.

75:57

And of course we'll get to those top stories.

75:59

Turkey reportedly restricting commercial ship traffic into the Black Sea.

76:03

That's following growing concern from the government after an uptick in

76:06

Russian and Ukrainian attacks on the vessels in the area.

76:09

Now, sources tell Bloomberg, the Directorate of General of Coastal Safety

76:13

has told multiple ships bound for Russia that it is not currently issuing transit

76:18

permits for such voyages or needs more time to review applications.

76:22

Conservative. Abelardo de la espera.

76:25

Yeah, yeah, he was sworn in as Colombia's president on Friday.

76:28

Now it took place in Cali. That's at a university auditorium before

76:32

Congress instead of the Capitol. Now the move.

76:35

It was meant to signal that his hardline approach to illegal armed groups.

76:39

Uh, Dylan is spirit is espionage. He succeeds Gustavo after winning a

76:44

close runoff election in June. Eastern China bracing for Typhoon

76:49

Dolphin. Authorities have begun shutting down

76:51

schools and tourist activities. The storm expected to bring heavy rains,

76:55

severe flooding and landslides when it makes landfall late Sunday.

76:59

National authorities have declared a level three emergency response.

77:02

That's the second lowest level and drought conditions on the island of

77:06

Puerto Rico. It's forced the U.S.

77:08

territory to enforce water rationing measures in San Juan.

77:11

Other major cities. Starting yesterday, more than 180

77:14

customers. They were without power water for 48

77:18

hours at a time. That's as part of an alternating

77:20

schedule. People, they've been lining up to

77:22

receive water from tankers. July was actually the driest month on

77:26

record for San Juan and more than 120 years.

77:30

David and Christina, thank you very much.

77:32

Appreciate that. Well, who doesn't like free money?

77:34

There is a new trend going around called the Pais craze, that has people spending

77:38

money at popular retailers to ultimately save money.

77:41

Bloomberg's Yana Baker explains. This summer, I've adopted a new ritual.

77:46

When I wake up in the morning, I brush my teeth, wash my face, and then I log

77:50

into the Duncan app to buy a $10 digital gift card.

77:54

It's really important that I do this every single day, or else I'm leaving

77:58

money on the table in pays credits. What's pays, you ask?

78:02

Well, it's the big banks answer to Apple Pay, PayPal and Google Pay.

78:07

It was introduced a few years ago by the owners of Zelle, but it hasn't really

78:12

caught on because it wasn't really accepted anywhere.

78:15

That's why they've unveiled a huge marketing campaign known as the pays

78:20

craze. Dozens upon dozens of credit cards are

78:23

eligible, since the company that owns it is owned by some of the world's biggest

78:27

financial institutions like JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Bank of America.

78:31

For each card that you activate with pays, you can get $10 back on ten

78:35

different transactions. People are striving to make transactions

78:39

as close to $10 as they can so they don't spend extra money, which is why

78:43

hunting for precisely $10 gift cards has proved popular.

78:47

Facebook groups devoted to credit card perks have been overrun with questions

78:51

and strategies. With so many people buying Dunkin gift

78:54

cards that a $10 day cap was put in place, developing their own digital

78:58

wallet is really important for the banks because that means they keep more credit

79:02

card fees. The question is, will people use pays?

79:06

Once the promotion is over? It's unclear, but the customers I spoke

79:10

to said that one hurdle was that it's a little clunky and it's not really

79:15

accepted everywhere yet, so you can't use it on Amazon or Walmart.

79:18

So it's a bit niche for now, but at least people know it exists thanks to

79:22

the pace craze. Um, now I know about it.

79:25

I didn't know about it. People are listed about this, uh, in

79:27

makeup this week, and I think it's what they were talking about.

79:29

But, um, I know a lot of people said it was too difficult.

79:32

I'm terrible with this stuff. I am Tuesday's deal.

79:34

Whatever. All right, well, if you're better at it

79:36

than we are, you can read more about it at Bloomberg.com.

79:39

All right. The return of the SAT is coming up next.

79:41

Why? More universities are once again pushing

79:43

for standardized test scores in their admissions processes.

79:46

That's coming up next here on Bloomberg this weekend.

79:48

You can find us on Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg.com.

79:51

You can stream the show on the Bloomberg Business app.

79:54

Stay with us. I'll be right back.

80:06

Thank you for joining us live on Bloomberg this weekend.

80:08

I'm Lisa Mateo. Let's update you on today's top stories.

80:11

President Trump has revived his threat to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa

80:15

Cook over unproven allegations of mortgage fraud.

80:18

According to a letter seen by Bloomberg, cook was told that Trump is considering

80:22

removing her and gave her until August 26th to respond to allegations made by

80:27

the white House. After surprising strength earlier this

80:29

year, the labor market is weaker than previously thought.

80:32

U.S. employers unexpectedly cut jobs in July

80:35

and hiring in the prior two months that was revised.

80:37

Lower nonfarm payrolls decreased 23,000 last month, following a combined 103,000

80:43

downward revision to the May and June figures.

80:45

The unemployment rate will that fell to 4.1% and wage growth slowed.

80:50

Trump Media and Technology Group have entered a deal to form a digital

80:53

treasury company to buy the Crypto.com Digital token, known as Chrome.

80:58

Now the two companies, they also dropped the plan that would have made prediction

81:02

market contracts available on the Truth social network.

81:05

It comes after Bitcoin prices, while they fell by nearly half to around

81:09

65,000 since their peak last year. And what would you do to get 20% off

81:15

your next purchase at the pump? Well, one Sunoco gas station in upstate

81:18

New York. They're offering the discount deal for

81:21

gas and other products to customers who, yes, show off their best dance moves.

81:25

I kid you not. People have been going all out.

81:28

This video has reached over 1 million views on TikTok.

81:32

The promotion does not include tobacco and alcohol, though I'm not sure if any

81:37

of them did partake before doing these dances.

81:39

Would you do that for 20%? You're darn right I would.

81:43

Do you know me? I'm a dancer.

81:45

Oh, it's generally my go to description for

81:49

you, David Garrard. No animal, no co or wherever I do it.

81:54

That's that's a great discount. Also like.

81:57

Come on, everybody's laughing. It's a nice moment.

81:59

It entertains everybody. It does.

82:01

Let's do it. We'll get 20% off.

82:02

Come on, 20% off. It's a new craze.

82:05

Pays craze to the skin. Lisa thank you very much.

82:08

Appreciate that. These are sticking around.

82:09

Okay. It's a debate that has split the

82:11

academic community, one of the nation's largest university system.

82:14

Since 2020, the University of California has stopped considering SAT and Act

82:18

scores for admission. Now, thousands of faculty members say

82:21

they do not agree with the test free protocol and want the school to

82:25

reconsider its test free policy. All right.

82:27

Joining us now from Washington with more is Bloomberg education policy reporter

82:31

Liam Knox. Liam, this is such a controversial topic

82:35

because some people love these tests. Some people hate these tests.

82:38

My question is, even if they re-implement the test.

82:41

Is that really going to solve the larger problem of these students showing up

82:44

unprepared for college level work? It's a great question, and one that's

82:49

kind of at the heart of this debate, honestly.

82:51

The there are a number of other factors, as I think anyone who has been

82:58

observing or living through the past five years with or without, uh, you

83:02

know, college age, high school age kids who know there's, uh, been the rise of

83:06

of I use in the classrooms. Obviously, the pandemic itself had a

83:10

huge impact on a generation of students who went through virtual learning for a

83:14

few years and are still catching up. Um, so the question of like, what is the

83:19

actual cause of this lack of preparedness is very much up in the air.

83:22

But professors, college administrators, um, they want to try everything that

83:27

they can to make sure that students who do enter the classroom are ready for the

83:30

level of college work that's expected of them.

83:33

You mentioned the pandemic. And I got to say, my daughter has been,

83:35

you know, she applied for colleges this year.

83:37

She's going you just went through. And yes, it just went through this.

83:39

And it's funny because you go and they're telling these students that are

83:42

there, you know what? This is the last time these scores are

83:45

going to be optional for students in coming next year.

83:48

You know we're going to change it and that's how we're going to make it.

83:50

They're going to have to apply it. So I see this at different different

83:53

universities. But explain why you see is so important.

83:56

I mean this is one of the last universities kind of making this change

83:59

possibly to possibly there are there are a number

84:03

of universities that are still test optional, especially the large public

84:07

institutions, the University of Michigan, the number of others, um, that

84:11

have not gone back on their test optional policies.

84:13

What makes you see very interesting, um, is that this is, uh, one they they

84:17

weren't just test optional in 2021. They got rid of safety requirements.

84:22

They went test blind, which means that admissions officers can't consider

84:25

standardized test scores even if applicants submit them.

84:28

Um, also, the you see is a massive, as you mentioned, a massive public

84:34

university system. And it's not just the elite schools

84:37

UCLA, UC Berkeley, um, UCSD that that are in consideration here.

84:42

Uh, there's also schools like UC Riverside and UC Merced, which take over

84:46

90% of all, of all of their applicants, and sort of a very different, much more

84:50

local, um, population, uh, where maybe there's a question of, you know, is one

84:56

test policy for the entire system really the the right way to go?

85:01

I think it's absurd to look ahead. And no, I think it's interesting because

85:04

I don't know when we were going to school, to me, the tests were kind of

85:07

the leveler for kids who didn't go to fancy schools or didn't get that great

85:10

grades. Like if they were smart, they took a

85:12

great test. They could get money and go to college.

85:14

Now it seems almost the opposite is true, because you have wealthier schools

85:18

and wealthier parents who can game the system.

85:20

They can get these ADHD diagnosis for longer times.

85:23

That was a big part of that college admissions scandal.

85:25

They can teach the test in a way that people without the money to do that

85:29

can't do as well. So there's also like a class and race

85:32

argument about this. But but who is advocating for which side

85:35

of this at this point? It's become a real mixed bag.

85:40

I mean, there is there's an argument that that the, the test, um, kind of

85:45

exacerbates racial and socioeconomic disparities in access to elite higher

85:50

education, to any higher education. Uh, you mentioned, you know, uh, test

85:54

prep. That's an expensive thing to pay for.

85:56

And it statistically really, really helps increase, uh, student scores.

86:01

Uh, but then there are, uh, you know, admissions officers who say actually

86:04

having these test scores helps us what they call the diamond.

86:07

In the rough theory, it helps us find students from otherwise underprivileged

86:11

high schools in areas where they might not look at or where, you know, grading

86:15

might not be the best indicator of possible success, and find students who

86:19

really, really stand out. Um, and so there's, uh, you know,

86:24

advocates for more access to higher education are also split on this

86:29

question to some degree. Liam, there's there's also this

86:32

happening in a kind of a political crucible as well.

86:34

And I wonder if you could talk about that, uh, as well.

86:37

I mean, we've heard from the Trump administration this kind of push to

86:39

reform higher education over and over again.

86:41

You've written so much about that. Um, you have the Republican candidate

86:44

for governor in California really talking about the way that higher

86:47

education needs to be reformed as well. How much does this fit into that kind of

86:50

current conversation, that Zeit Geist conversation about the future of higher

86:53

education? It fits right in there.

86:56

And of course, the UC system is saying that, you know, none of those political

87:00

concerns are going to affect its ultimate decision about whether or not

87:03

to return to test requirements, but this is a question that looms large over the

87:07

UC and over all colleges. Um, you know, the Trump administration

87:10

has advocated pretty strongly for a return to test requirements as part of

87:14

what they say is, uh, you know, reforms to restore merit in college admissions.

87:19

Um, Steve Hilton, the Republican candidate for governor there, has echoed

87:24

those, uh, you know, those calls. There's this argument that going test

87:29

optional is a kind of proxy for race preferences in admissions for a kind of

87:35

affirmative action, which, of course, the Supreme Court, uh, outlawed in 2023.

87:40

Um, that that's the argument from the Trump administration and those

87:43

officials. And so when a place like the you see

87:47

which last year, you know, faced a funding freeze from the Trump

87:50

administration of more than half $1 billion in federal research grants, uh,

87:56

is thinking about this question. It's hard not to, uh, you know, not to

87:59

to to see the, um, you know, the federal government's and, uh, you know, the

88:04

political questions hanging over this as well.

88:07

Um, and I have to ask, also, on the education side, you have another story

88:10

that you're working on. One dive into that.

88:12

It's about the surge of AI boot camps. Um, so are they effective?

88:17

What did you find out? If you can give us a little preview

88:19

before. Before it publishes?

88:21

Uh, sure. Yeah.

88:22

So it'll be out later this morning. Um, I think the question of are they

88:25

effective is very much up in the air. And that's part of the, the, the impetus

88:31

for the story. Right.

88:31

It's that there's this real drive, uh, among workers, students anxious about,

88:38

you know, the effect of the technology on the job market, whether it's the

88:42

entry level job market or whether they, you know, are trying to get back into

88:46

the workforce or pursue promotions or a new line of work.

88:50

AI is affecting everything. Or at least that's what you know,

88:52

everyone is is that's what's in the zeitgeist.

88:55

And so there's this real, uh, urge is real, uh, eagerness to go back and, uh,

89:01

kind of upskill in that area. Colleges are also very eager to kind of

89:06

meet that need, both because they want to prepare students and because it's a

89:10

possibly fruitful revenue stream. But the reality is that nobody knows

89:14

what skills employers want from, uh, from, you know, when it comes to AI, you

89:19

know, least of all the employers themselves.

89:21

And so there's this, uh, you know, there's kind of a, uh, putting the cart

89:25

before the horse here a little bit. And, uh, the question is, are these

89:29

bootcamps, these very short term, non-degree programs that students are

89:33

entering are investing in really going to hold any value?

89:37

Previewed there by Liam Knox. Course covers education policy for Sarah

89:41

Bloomberg News. That's we're going to come out on

89:42

bloomberg.com in the Bloomberg terminal as he said a little bit later this

89:45

morning. Thank you very much.

89:46

Thanks, Sam. All right.

89:47

From the backwoods to the catwalk, how luxury fashion brands are embracing a

89:51

very specific type of cameo. You can watch us wherever you are,

89:56

wherever you go. Watch us on Bloomberg TV, listen on

89:58

Bloomberg Radio, streamed the show live on the Bloomberg Business app or

90:01

Bloomberg.com. It's Bloomberg this weekend.

90:07

Welcome back to Bloomberg this weekend I'm David Gura with Lisa Mateo and

90:10

Christina Ruffini. All right, David Gura.

90:13

How often have you worn camouflage? Approximately zero times in my life.

90:16

That surprises me. 0%.

90:18

All right. So a very specific type of camo that you

90:20

usually see in the deep woods is now getting kind of a resurgence.

90:24

And you're seeing it on runways and city streets.

90:26

Camouflage is getting a surge and it's getting licensing deals with some major

90:30

brands. So here to explain what exactly this is

90:33

and why it's happening is Bloomberg Pursuits Madison Derbyshire, who has

90:37

come with you and maybe not typically. So when I read this and it said camo I

90:42

thought like fatigue camo. But that's not quite it.

90:45

That was that was what we did in like the early aughts.

90:47

But this is a different this is like deep woods camo, 60 foot camo.

90:50

We call it hunting camouflage. And when I started reporting this story,

90:54

I didn't actually know there was much of a difference.

90:56

But it turns out it's an entirely different category of camo, and it's

91:00

dominated by a few very large companies in the Deep South.

91:04

And I kind of, I, I didn't even know to be looking for it until I had to write a

91:08

story last year about hunting that required me to buy an outfit.

91:12

Bloomberg bought me this beautiful jacket so that I could do the story, and

91:16

I started wearing it around New York City.

91:18

You can see it's got like leaves and very tiny.

91:22

I started wearing it around New York City, and people would stop me on the

91:25

street and ask me where I got my jacket, what designer was it?

91:29

And I had to tell them it was Bass Pro Shop from Harlingen, Texas, but and it

91:35

cost $15, but it was easily the most complimented item of clothing in my

91:39

wardrobe. And I started to wonder, like, why were

91:42

people so interested in the style? And then I started seeing it everywhere

91:46

in New York City. I wore the wrong one.

91:48

I wore the military fatigues, camo. Um, is there a right or a wrong way to

91:53

wear it? Like, can I, can I, can I don that the

91:56

Yankee hat. Wow.

91:57

With the this is a lot of camo. Does this work?

92:00

Well I know I think it works. How do you wear camo the right way?

92:03

I think she's being very polite. I think it works.

92:07

But they they mean very different things.

92:09

So the that green hunting or this green came on the oven, your hat was

92:14

essentially correct. It was the only camo that until the mid

92:17

80s existed because it was created essentially for America's last foreign

92:21

war, which was Vietnam. But hunters in the American South were

92:25

frustrated that the camo didn't really work with the topography of the region,

92:29

and they were still finding themselves, like, very visible to the animals that

92:32

they wanted to hunt like turkeys. So there were two, um, two kind of major

92:37

players in this one same taxi Hayes, and the other is Bill Jordan, and they

92:42

decided to design their own camo and kind of two separate camel empires, one

92:47

called Real Tree, one called Mossy Oak. Um, in order to create hunting camo,

92:52

That was a little bit more appropriate for the topography of America.

92:55

And that camo has not been popular in fashion until very recently.

92:59

Like this. Camo was a very big part of the

93:02

anti-Vietnam War protest. It's something that you would see in

93:05

Abercrombie and Fitch. I know that I wore it like my entire

93:09

early adolescence. I wore cargo pants.

93:11

But to a lot of people, this camo really suggests military.

93:15

It suggests like aggression.

93:18

It's very masculine. And there's something that's really

93:21

interesting happening with the hunting camo is that the associations people

93:25

have with this pattern tend to be very regional.

93:28

So people who hunt people are from the South will be very familiar with this

93:32

pattern. But until the last five years, you

93:34

really didn't see it that often in New York.

93:36

Let me ask you about that. So you here are the trends that are

93:37

going to Bass Pro Shops and coming to New York City wearing this trendsetter.

93:42

Um, you know, you asked if I've ever worn.

93:43

No, but I grew up in the South, so it is recognizable to me.

93:46

When and how did it make the leap to something that folks here in New York

93:50

There be a cognizant in New York would recognize what this is.

93:53

American style, rural, southern style has kind of become a ubiquitous

93:58

aesthetic for Americana right now. You see, cowboy boots have had this

94:02

major boom. Carhartt jackets are everywhere in

94:05

Williamsburg, as well as the South and Brooklyn.

94:09

Yeah, there's nowhere you can go where men do not want to wear a vintage car

94:13

jacket, which when I was growing up, like I have a lot of family in the Deep

94:16

South, I was considered workwear. My grandfather used to call it clothes

94:20

for honest labor. Interesting.

94:21

You bought them in the tractor Supply. They were not sold on high streets of

94:25

Paris the way they are now. But what people are really looking for

94:29

is this kind of vintage aesthetic. So they started buying the vintage

94:32

Carhartt that looked like they had been worn in, like worked in.

94:36

And the kind of logical next step for that was hunting camo, because it has

94:41

this very American, very rural association.

94:44

But people one of the really interesting things about this moment is people are

94:48

buying used hunting. So things that have been really broken

94:52

and are being worn by men who have never hunted a turkey in their lives.

94:57

I was going to ask is like my my issue with the car to someone else who grew up

95:01

with people actually wearing this for work is like, you're you're cosplaying a

95:04

working American. It's giving like Marie-Antoinette

95:06

playing milkmaid. Like, is there something kind of off

95:09

about these guys who've never done this, you know, trying to emulate this, or is

95:13

that just fashion and just kind of part of the fun?

95:15

I think it's both. It's it is fashion.

95:18

People want to wear things that suggest an identity that they're, they want to

95:23

be a part of, like denim and workwear really entered fashion in the 70s and

95:28

80s when it's like blue jeans were not a thing right before they came into

95:32

fashion, because people wanted to wear things that suggested blue collar they

95:36

want because it was seen as like more virile, more masculine.

95:40

And you see kind of the same thing coming into play.

95:42

We're in this moment where traditional masculinity is kind of politically

95:47

ascendant. And so there are people who are

95:49

unironically wearing these clothes, these articles of clothing, because

95:52

that's what they think an American man looks like.

95:55

And then there are people who might be wearing and like the Balenciaga jacket,

95:58

that kind of fashion loves irony, right?

96:02

And so love, they want to suggest these things.

96:04

And there is something a little ironic about paying $2600 or $2700 for a

96:09

hunting jacket that you can get at Bass Pro Shops for $15.

96:13

So it is really interesting the way that

96:16

fashion takes these controversial images and they ionize them.

96:21

And also to some people, like one of the things that I think we don't talk about

96:24

enough is there's just not that many patterns that men feel like they can

96:28

wear that are culturally acceptable for men to wear, that fit with traditional

96:32

ideas of masculinity. You know, they don't really have animal

96:35

prints the way that women do. They don't really have florals unless

96:38

they're feeling particularly bold. Maybe they have stripes.

96:42

And camel is one of those things that men really gravitate towards, and then

96:45

women gravitate towards to steal from the men.

96:48

Madison, thank you very much. Thanks so much for having me.

96:50

This was really fun. The next hour of Bloomberg this weekend

96:53

starts right now.

97:09

Breaking news the Senate confirms Todd Blanche as attorney general in an early

97:13

morning vote. 50 to 49.

97:15

The nomination is confirmed. Applause broke out on the Senate floor.

97:21

What this means for the future of the Justice Department.

97:24

Digging into the jobs report. U.S.

97:26

employers unexpectedly cut jobs and the unemployment rate fell.

97:31

It is a fall in unemployment rate. That's due to the wrong reasons.

97:35

What it means for the fed and interest rates.

97:38

And an apparent financial lifeline for Liv golf.

97:40

It says it found an investor to keep the tour going.

97:43

Is this always how it goes? Liv golf.

97:45

You never get the full picture. The latest as Liv golfers tee off at

97:50

Bedminster.

97:59

Welcome, Plymouth. This weekend we're coming to you live

98:00

from Bloomberg's world headquarters in New York City I'm David Gray.

98:03

I'm Christina Ruffini. We're here with Lisa Mateo.

98:05

It is Saturday, August 8th. Obviously we have this news on the Hill.

98:09

Uh, lots of votes happening overnight. We had a Russia sanctions bill.

98:12

Uh, Todd Blanch was confirmed. And now the Senate has gone for their,

98:15

uh, much anticipated, uh, summer break. But there are other things that have not

98:20

taken a break, and that includes the conflicts in Iran, which we're going to

98:23

talk to some of our colleagues about this morning, as well as all the other

98:26

headlines. Where to start with Lisa Mateo, who the

98:28

updates. You got it.

98:29

And that overnight vote for Blanchett followed a tough confirmation fight that

98:32

exposed concerns across party lines about assailing President Donald Trump's

98:36

former personal attorney to lead the Justice Department.

98:39

It comes after Republican Senator Bill Cassidy said he would support Todd

98:43

Blanch to be the next attorney general, while Senator Susan Collins of Maine and

98:46

Lisa murkowski of Alaska, they oppose. Also this morning, the Senate has passed

98:51

a stopgap spending bill to avert a government shutdown at the end of

98:55

September. The move it shows how both parties are

98:57

looking to avoid a fight before midterm elections.

99:00

That vote, it was 90 to 6 to keep federal funding at current levels

99:04

through December 11th and prevent the Trump administration from transferring

99:07

funds to the Border Patrol overseas. Now Russia and Ukraine exchanged

99:12

overnight strikes. Ukraine's capital.

99:14

It came under attack by ballistic missiles and drones, with fires reported

99:18

in several districts and three people killed in the region and a fire.

99:22

It was sparked at an oil refinery in southern Russia by Ukrainian drone

99:26

debris, injuring five people. That's according to the regional task

99:29

force. Meanwhile, the U.S.

99:31

Senate did pass a new Russia sanctions bill championed by the late Senator

99:34

Lindsey Graham. It authorizes punishing tariffs on

99:38

China, India and other top buyers of the country's oil and gas well was low, as

99:43

well as extended Iran sanctions. Senator Darlene Graham, she's talked

99:46

about what it meant to her late brother. He believed that this was the most

99:50

consequential piece of legislation that he had ever led.

99:55

And I'm proud to carry the torch to the finish line.

99:58

Lindsey was committed to achieving a peaceful resolution to this war, and I'm

100:03

confident that these sanctions will pave the way.

100:07

The bipartisan legislation passed the Senate 86 to 11 and still has to pass

100:11

the House. A federal appeals court that has ruled

100:14

that President Donald Trump cannot build the white House ballroom without

100:17

congressional approval, and must stop construction of that $400 million

100:22

project. The president called the decision unjust

100:24

and said he would appeal it to the Supreme Court.

100:27

Democratic Senator Peter Welch he stressed that Congress would never give

100:31

approval for that ballroom. And Berkshire Hathaway, he spent about

100:37

$4.5 billion to buy back its own shares in the second quarter, and that provided

100:42

shareholders with the largest quarterly payout since 2021 operating earnings,

100:46

while they surged 16% in the three months through June.

100:50

David and Christina. Lisa, thank you very much.

100:52

Fascinating to hear kind of the way that investors look at stock performance of

100:55

that company in particular. No, it's not beating the S&P.

100:58

No. Not even close to it here.

100:59

But it's a it's still that thing that people want to hold on to not looking at

101:02

a quarterback. And almost the opposite of eye if you're

101:05

if you're skeptical of I or you're following this a little bit more, but

101:08

not eye proxy for sure. Thank you very much.

101:10

Appreciate that. Well, Iran's foreign minister says that

101:13

country and Oman, very close to inking a deal on managing the Strait of Hormuz as

101:17

the white House is once again saying a deal on the strait was imminent this

101:20

week. I will note here on the Saturday that

101:23

deal has not yet materialized. Now there are new reports concerning

101:26

depleted munitions, and CNN is reporting the chairman of the Joint Chiefs is

101:31

looking for an off ramp. Bloomberg News white House National

101:33

security Editor Michelle Rasco joins us now.

101:36

Michelle, I have so many questions. Um, but I think I'm going to start with

101:39

we have all this talk of talk, right. These negotiations, but it's very

101:43

unclear if the U.S. is even involved in these at this point.

101:46

It seems like this is being worked out between Oman and Iran.

101:50

And it does also seem like there is going to be some sort of tolling

101:54

structure, fee structure, exactly what the U.S.

101:57

said it didn't want and and wouldn't happen when we started this conflict.

102:02

Well, that's right, Christina. And I think that's the key point to make

102:05

this week as we talk of talks, as you say, I mean, the talks this week were

102:10

not about the US in any sort of mediating position with Iran.

102:14

It was more about, as you say, the Ron Oman talks, which have always been

102:18

about, uh, how do we manage, uh, the Strait of Hormuz, uh, long term

102:22

interest, even before this conflict for, uh, Iran to sort of solidify its control

102:27

over the strait? It's been an economic concern for

102:29

decades, uh, for them to just ensure that they can secure that as an asset.

102:34

So the talks this week apparently moved a little further.

102:37

If you're reading from Russian state media, which you know, you have to take

102:41

with a grain of salt just like any other media these days or trends.

102:46

Um, uh, you know, uh, translation of of what the regime is thinking.

102:50

Uh, but we do we do have, you know, and signals that they have come to some sort

102:55

of agreement on how to toll the streets, uh, which, of course, as you mentioned,

102:59

is not in the interest of the U.S. and not with the U.S.

103:02

with seeking or declaring that would come out of this.

103:04

So there's still no sign, uh, you know, Trump did say this week that he was

103:08

involved in the negotiations, but he didn't elaborate on who might be talking

103:12

or how that involvement might play out. Um, we do know that there's no formal

103:16

talks right now, of course, between the U.S.

103:18

and Iran. Uh, and even the media.

103:20

Uh, you know, Qatar and Pakistan have been fairly quiet about any sort of

103:25

progress there. So we are in sort of even a more a limbo

103:28

period than we were before in terms of what is the diplomatic way ahead, and

103:32

does it threaten to return us to a sort of kinetic, uh, situation?

103:37

Um, and it's a familiar split screen once again.

103:39

So we have the president talking about the prospects of a deal, uh, his desire,

103:44

I guess, to get both the U.S. and Iran back to a negotiating table

103:47

eventually. And all the while, on the other side of

103:49

the screen, there is president with his bellicose rhetoric about how long he'll

103:53

be willing to be patient until that happens and then what might happen where

103:56

he not to be playing out. Kind of in the backdrop to all of this

103:59

is the concern about the US's weapons supply.

104:02

And we certainly saw in Ukraine this week Ukraine's president, uh, saying,

104:06

you know, effectively, their their missile defenses is greatly handicapped

104:09

by the fact that there are enough patriots left.

104:11

Um, and there was all of this reporting, uh, from the likes of NBC news, other

104:15

outlets reporting on the fact that that that stockpile of munitions has been

104:18

greatly reduced because of the conflict in Iran.

104:20

So, um, president unhappy about that? We saw him, uh, tweeting out posting on

104:25

Truth Social earlier this week. The U.S.

104:27

has massive amounts of munitions, especially of certain types.

104:29

Additionally, large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to the US as

104:32

needed. Defense companies are building the

104:34

largest number of plants and factories in our country's history.

104:37

The leakers. He writes of these treasonous statements

104:40

are being hunted down. Long term jail sentences will be sought.

104:44

Let's look beyond that rhetoric, if we could.

104:46

Michelle here. What do we know about the integrity of

104:48

the ammunition stockpile? The degree to which that is shaping the

104:52

president's thinking about whether or not to go back to a more intensive sort

104:57

of military fight against Iran. We'll do it.

104:59

I think we can start with, uh, what would be normal in any administration

105:03

and any any Pentagon structure is, uh, you know, you don't want your leadership

105:08

revealing what exactly the levels of munitions are, obviously, for

105:12

operational security purposes. From a political standpoint, yeah.

105:15

You have Trump, uh, you know, denying that there's any problem here.

105:19

He sees it as a leverage issue. Of course, you know, to say that we're

105:23

running low on munitions would be giving and handing something to Iran that they

105:28

think they already have, which is an understanding that the US is vulnerable,

105:32

that can't, the US cannot, you know, keep up these massive strikes with very

105:36

expensive missile defense equipment that's fighting very, you know, small

105:40

drones that are pesky at this point. Uh, you know, in some ways, uh, in a, in

105:45

a very asymmetric warfare game. So that is a problem.

105:48

That would be long standing. But I think what we have here this week

105:51

is, of course, the sort of Trump bellicose rhetoric, the bravado that he

105:55

brings to, um, every situation, every issue that he, he tries to project his,

106:00

his own opinions on, uh, is kind of cutting up against the reality that, uh,

106:04

you know, his advisers are telling him that there is, you know, a real problem

106:08

here. And it's becoming more obvious.

106:09

And one thing I think you can look at, uh, which I really appreciated, our

106:14

reporter, Tony Capozzi, had a good scoop last week looking at what has the

106:18

administration asked Congress for in emergency funding to replenish those

106:23

stockpiles? So that gives you some idea to kind of

106:25

back your way into, uh, what we're running low on or what might need to be

106:29

replenished, uh, to, to prepare for maybe what's ahead on Iran, but also

106:34

other conflicts. And as you mentioned, this is kind of,

106:37

you know, running into in a very complicated way.

106:40

Uh, other conflicts like Ukraine, where we're seeing, you know, as you

106:44

mentioned, the shortage of Patriot interceptors there.

106:47

And, and so there's this sort of kind of global competition right now.

106:50

Um, you know, in some ways to kind of figure out how can we get these things

106:54

produced faster. And, and the president has said that he

106:57

is, uh, you know, urged and the defense primes are responding to that faster

107:02

production call. Always follow the money.

107:04

It's always a good reporting tool. Um,

107:07

how much faster can they do this? We have the chief of naval operations,

107:11

uh, here. And it seems like.

107:14

And our colleague just interviewed the army secretary, and we've all asked this

107:17

question. They are reticent to answer it directly

107:19

because it is such a politically charged, uh, issue with the president.

107:23

But there at some point, to your point, it is becoming more and more obvious.

107:26

It is the reality that this is going to become a problem.

107:29

And the lead time for a lot of these patriots and bigger munitions is like

107:32

five years, so aspirational. The admiral is talking about even trying

107:35

to get that cut down to half. What is the plan in the meantime?

107:38

What are the options? And is this why you're hearing leaks and

107:42

rumblings that folks in the Pentagon are trying to find off ramps to this

107:45

conflict? Because in the meantime, there just

107:46

aren't that many options? Yeah, well, two things.

107:49

I mean, Christina, again, we can look at what happened, what the situation was

107:53

before the war, and then now that it's exacerbated with the strains from the

107:58

war. So before the war and even decades back,

108:02

you always have this debate about can the five defense primes the biggest

108:06

defense contractors to the government? Can they move faster?

108:09

Can they be more efficient? Can they do more to make sure that they

108:13

don't have cost overruns and that they just move on a timeline that works for

108:17

the US military and for the US taxpayer. And that's always the pressure point

108:21

between government and business on that front.

108:24

So those are long standing debates. The Trump the second Trump term, um, you

108:28

know, even dating back to its beginning a year and a half ago, was talking about

108:32

getting the defense primes and defense procurement in general to move faster,

108:36

to be more nimble, to draw on more startups to to get more next gen tech,

108:41

um, and to just be less clumsy in some ways than they have been.

108:44

And, and, you know, you can imagine how those debates go with those, uh,

108:49

executives who have been to the white House a few times.

108:52

Um, and, and, uh, it isn't in their interest to kind of speak candidly about

108:56

those meetings, but you can kind of read, uh, you know, what those

108:59

discussions are now under, under this situation with munitions running low,

109:04

you do see, um, you know, more of an effort and more talk from the likes of

109:09

Defense secretary, heads up, um, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Chairman Kaine and

109:13

others to to get those primes to move faster.

109:16

And so, um, and then we had, as you mentioned, Army Secretary yesterday.

109:20

Army Secretary just called yesterday announcing, um, another kind of avenue

109:24

for startups to get more involved. So they're coming to military bases, um,

109:28

and they're being invited to, to to move faster and bookings on those military

109:33

bases to test weapons. So another, another effort there to to

109:36

kind of get this procurement process more nimble and to, to speed up

109:40

production. All right, Michelle, Germans go our

109:42

white House and national security editor joining us from D.C..

109:45

Thank you so much. Thank you Michel.

109:46

Well, the next summit between Presidents Trump and she is scheduled to take place

109:48

next month in Washington. And the agenda is expected to center on

109:52

trade and technology. And for almost a decade, Evan Osnos is a

109:55

Beijing based reporter. He's also the author of a book, Age of

109:59

Ambition Chasing Fortune, truth, and Faith in the New China.

110:02

These days, he's based in D.C., but he recently took a reporting trip to China

110:06

in a new piece for The New Yorker. He writes that many of those changes

110:09

have taken place since 2013 and saying for a long time, China, look west for

110:14

visions of the future. These days, it's favoring its own.

110:17

Its approach to I is one illustration of that.

110:20

Evan Osnos is a staff writer for The New Yorker, and he joins us now on this

110:23

Saturday. Evan, I want to start with, I if I

110:25

could, because you I'm going to paraphrase you here, you'll forgive me

110:27

for doing that, but you highlight the distinction between the way that China

110:30

approaches AI and the way that the U.S. does.

110:32

And I think what you sort of indicate is that in the U.S., the debate is about

110:36

sort of advanced general intelligence, sort of what that might mean for our

110:39

society as a whole. It is a much more kind of commercially

110:43

focused aspiration in China than it is here in the U.S..

110:47

It is. Yeah.

110:48

The conversation in China is about how to get it out as fast as possible as far

110:53

as possible. And they're not just thinking about how

110:55

do we get it into Chinese factories, but also how do we get it into Africa,

110:58

Central Asia, Latin America? And so you have a very different

111:02

conversation when you're going around, as I did.

111:05

You know, visiting Chinese factories are going to AI consultancies that are

111:09

looking at ways of bringing this into very old fashioned factories.

111:13

Um, you know, there's not a whole lot of imaginings about, uh, you know, a sci fi

111:20

future, even though there are elements of that beginning to present themselves

111:23

in the present. Um, it's really about.

111:25

All right. How do we go into a brewery, for

111:27

instance? That's a real example.

111:29

And say, how do we take beer production and put it into the 21st century?

111:33

So it is, uh, it is quite striking that when you're on the ground these days

111:36

about how I and, and other technologies feel like they are already part of life.

111:44

And it seems to me that the energy aspect is a huge part of that.

111:47

We were talking earlier with Joe Quinlan from Bank of America, talking about the

111:51

spike we saw in solar stocks this week. And he said part of the reason is what

111:54

we're seeing in the Gulf in this energy demand.

111:55

And China has been really out ahead on energy diversity.

111:59

And we're still seeing this, you know, mysterious drop in, uh, oil imports from

112:03

China. Is this are they more able to throw

112:06

their weight behind this and back, build the infrastructure because of just the

112:10

way they are structured with their government, they can long term plan in a

112:13

way that a democracy doesn't have to, because we change presidents possibly

112:17

every four years. Yeah.

112:19

This is both the blessing and the curse of having a centrally planned system.

112:24

You know, the blessing, of course, is when you decide you're all in on all

112:28

kinds of energy, as they have over the course of the last generation.

112:31

They've gone from producing, you know, something like half as much energy as

112:35

United States to producing now much more.

112:37

And actually, in many cases, it's cheaper.

112:40

Um, this is partly because they've been able to say from the top, this is what

112:44

we're doing. And then that filters down through the

112:46

system, even down into the localities where you get municipal governments that

112:50

are even on the individual level. You have politicians in the Chinese

112:54

system competing for promotions by saying, look, we are investing in solar.

112:58

We're investing in nuclear, whatever it is.

113:01

Um, the downside, of course, is that when they go off of true north by a few

113:07

degrees and end up on an engineering project that turns out to be either out

113:11

of step with market demands or in some cases, like the one child policy, which

113:16

I talk about in this piece. Uh, something that produces a huge range

113:20

of negative economic consequences, that it's very hard to shift that battleship

113:25

before it can cause, um, more damage. So what we're seeing right now is that

113:31

this is the moment when those energy investments have paid off, and it's been

113:35

very helpful for them. Evan, you can count me among those who,

113:38

um, have been introduced to the new China through through your book and

113:41

through your writing. And I just wondered if you could talk a

113:43

bit about what it was like to return there on this, this reporting trip.

113:46

I think one of the things you observe is kind of the quiet of Beijing in a way

113:50

that it wasn't before, because there are so many electric vehicles now.

113:53

The means of transportation has changed, the means of commerce has changed as

113:56

well. The storefronts are less crowded because

113:58

people are buying things, uh, with apps and using delivery services.

114:02

How different is the new China today than the one that you wrote about now,

114:05

you know, more than a decade ago. It's very interesting to see it up close

114:10

now. I mean, having lived there for all these

114:12

years, you kind of absorb a certain street level sense of what China is.

114:17

And certainly in the first decade of this century, Beijing was a kind of a

114:22

cacophonous place. It was a noisy place.

114:25

I mean that in all senses of the word, you know, it wasn't just that the cars

114:27

were noisy, but also there was a real contest of ideas going on, and you would

114:31

also just go into the alleys. I lived in a hutong house, and so it was

114:35

you never quite knew what was going to be opening up.

114:38

There were businesses that would open, they'd be gone, and in a few months or

114:41

something else would be built in its place.

114:44

Today, there is a much more distinct feeling of the place that is run from

114:49

the top. And so on the one hand, you get this

114:52

feeling that it is quite literally quieter because of electric vehicles,

114:56

but then you also get the feeling that some of that type of activity that was

115:01

happening in the margins, you know, the smaller communities of artists or ideas

115:07

that were bubbling up. Those have been silenced in some ways,

115:11

and that is a feeling of that feels like a loss.

115:15

And it also you do get the feeling, though, as you know, I was talking to

115:18

somebody from Singapore not too long ago and he said about Beijing, he said, when

115:22

I go there, it feels to me like it now out Singapore's Singapore, meaning that

115:26

it has that sense of orderliness. But then there is also that bit of

115:29

sterility, and that's a that getting those two ideas into one sentence is

115:34

part of the reason why I write a long piece of this kind, to try to give

115:37

people as much a feel as I can of what it's like on the ground.

115:40

You also wrote, which I thought was interesting.

115:42

Chinese leaders seem to be betting that by speeding toward the future, they can

115:46

outrun the mistakes of the recent past. You mentioned the one child policy.

115:50

I'm wondering which other ones come to mind and what they're trying to reverse

115:54

course on. One of the things they're trying to

115:57

address, of course, is the property crash.

115:59

You know, since 2021, we've all been living through the effects of that

116:02

economically. There are now uh, just to put a fine

116:05

point on it, there are now as many vacant homes in China, apartments and

116:09

villas as there would be to house the entire population of Russia.

116:14

Uh, so you had this enormous, uh, overhang, uh, from that property crash

116:20

and they're saying, look, if we can more or less catapult ourselves into a new

116:27

phase of economic history, then perhaps we can, um, light a fire again under

116:32

people, get them feeling like they're no longer, as the saying goes, among young

116:36

Chinese, no longer, uh, looking to lie flat.

116:39

Um, maybe get people to start feeling more energized about the economy and

116:44

about their own opportunities. That's really the core of it, guys, I

116:47

think, is this feeling of, can you reignite that feeling of opportunity?

116:53

Um, that's the thing that was running through Age of Ambition when I wrote

116:57

about the China of, of the 20 tens. And there are moments, there are little

117:02

glimpses when you go to places in China these days and you see this dynamic

117:06

frontier of the new economy that is happening.

117:08

But then when you also talk to people who have felt like those opportunities

117:12

are only for a privileged few, and they say, look, I'm not equipped for the eye

117:16

economy. I'm not equipped for this new advanced

117:18

manufacturing generation. Where do I fit in?

117:21

And the irony is, of course, it's not a conversation that's all that different

117:24

from one of the ones we're beginning to have here in the United States.

117:28

So there's something to it. How do you make sure that many people

117:31

feel a sense of agency? Uh, in the new I era, in the minute we

117:36

have left. Uh, I want to ask you about what I found

117:38

is kind of the most important part of the piece to my mind.

117:41

Just in one minute. I think that, you know, there are a lot

117:43

of kind of gray beards talking about political theory and the American order

117:47

waning and what might rise in its place. And you.

117:49

Right. Spent enough time in Beijing and

117:50

Washington these days, and the rivalry looks less like a clash of competing

117:54

systems than a race between small oligarchic groups, tight circles of men

117:58

with immense power over everyone else's future.

118:01

Talk a bit more about that, if you would.

118:04

Yeah. It is a very noticeable feeling after

118:06

I've been working on this for a long time.

118:08

I came away with the sense that this is the dark matter, the piece that doesn't

118:12

get described enough and is clearly, which is that there is a feeling, both

118:16

in the United States and in China, that these enormous decisions about what role

118:22

will these new technologies play in our economies, in our private lives, in our

118:26

in our own sense of how we educate our kids and how to prepare them for the

118:30

future? It doesn't feel like we have a hand in

118:33

those decisions, and that creates an enormous sense of uncertainty.

118:38

And I heard this not only from regular people on the street.

118:41

And, you know, you could do that in the US.

118:43

But even from some AI executives in Beijing who said, look, I too have these

118:48

questions. How should I educate my kids to

118:50

participate in the future? So, um, in some ways, there is a point

118:55

of, of commonality here, uh, which is about how will these two big important

118:59

countries engage in a way that allows their regular citizens to feel as if

119:04

something is happening with their involvement, rather than happening to

119:08

them. And it's always great to speak with you.

119:09

Thank you very much. Seven Osnos.

119:11

He's a staff writer at The New Yorker. His new piece out in this week's issue.

119:14

Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

119:16

All right. Next week we're going to get some key

119:18

inflation data with consumer producer price indexes.

119:21

Bloomberg Economics chief economist Anna Wang expects inflation to cool slightly.

119:26

We couple that with the week jobs report.

119:28

All indications are that the Federal Reserve will hold on interest rates next

119:31

month yet again. Here's more from Bloomberg's Anna Wong.

119:35

The difference between the US falling unemployment rate on one hand and a very

119:40

weak payroll on the other hand in July's print was mainly because in the

119:46

household survey, it shows that the labor force participation continue to

119:51

fall, uh, driven by people, uh, between age 16 to 24, and those folks are

119:58

dropping out of the labor market. And because you have a shrinking labor

120:02

pool, you don't just don't need a lot of, uh, increase in hiring to cause the

120:08

unemployment rate to go down. So it is a fall and unemployment rate

120:11

that's due to the wrong reasons. That's so interesting to me because I

120:16

always I find that part of that counterintuitive.

120:19

It's like, well, the unemployment rate down because people gave up and stopped

120:22

looking for work. It also seems an interesting indication

120:25

that it's in those ages that you talked about.

120:27

So it's younger people who are deciding not to be applying for these jobs.

120:32

What are they doing? Are they waiting to enter the workforce?

120:34

Are they seeking higher education or is that not clear?

120:38

I think it could be a more, uh, um, harmless explanation.

120:43

It could be that it is July after work, after all.

120:47

And people, especially the younger folks, folks who are waiting to go to

120:51

college, the the college students themselves, they're just off vacationing

120:56

and they are, uh, just not working in their usual summer job and not looking

121:00

for a summer job, uh, in the thick of July.

121:04

And I want to play a bit of sound here from Kevin Hassett, the president's

121:06

economic adviser. He was on Bloomberg Television on Friday

121:08

after these numbers were released, talking about, uh, participation,

121:11

talking about the data more broadly. Let's take a listen.

121:14

The labor force participation is kind of on a downward trajectory, which means

121:19

that the break even jobs number, that is the jobs number you need.

121:22

So the unemployment rate doesn't uh, go up is has gone from maybe 120 hunters,

121:27

30,000 a few years ago to maybe about 40,000 now.

121:31

And so what it means is that what the market is used to look it at, oh, it's

121:35

like a normal tread the water kind of jobs number, if it's around 100, is no

121:40

longer true. I want to get your reaction to what

121:42

Doctor Hassett said there. And also just have you talk a bit more

121:44

about what you mentioned a moment ago, which is just that the pool of workers

121:47

here is getting smaller and smaller. Yeah.

121:50

So he mentioned this, uh, break even concept.

121:54

So economists, uh, estimate this, uh, monthly pace of job growth that's needed

122:01

to keep the unemployment rate constant. And, uh, Kevin Hassett just mentioned

122:06

his estimate is 40,000. Our estimate is, uh, around 55,000.

122:11

The fed and, uh, recent note, they think that it's closer to zero.

122:16

So, um, I think that's what he's trying to.

122:20

Kevin Hassett is trying to say to kind of, uh, his point is that, well, well,

122:26

we are used to the, uh, you know, 100 K type of monthly, uh, payrolls print

122:32

going forward, even a soft ones, that's, uh, you know, between 0 to 50,000.

122:39

And in his mind, 40,000 is actually a tolerable and decent kind of number of

122:46

job growth. And and I think basically he's lowering

122:49

the bar for what constitutes a good labor market.

122:55

When you look at the picture overall, there were a few places where you saw

122:59

some job growth and there were places that were hit by job losses a little bit

123:03

more. Can you just talk us through the

123:04

different sectors and some patterns that you're seeing?

123:07

Yeah. So, um, the the places that produce the

123:10

largest drag is local government education sector.

123:14

And it saw a 50,000 decline in a job growth.

123:19

That's pretty substantial. Um, I think this is this decrease is

123:24

noteworthy, and it's not something that you can just sweep under the rug.

123:29

Uh, I think this is a sign that the, uh, higher long end, uh, of the yield curve

123:34

that has been rising for the last 3 or 4 months already, that is starting to bite

123:39

when you have higher long term treasury yields, that puts upward pressure on

123:44

mortgage rates and that has been cooling the housing sector and, you know, local

123:49

governments derive a lot of their revenue, uh, from the local property

123:54

market. So when, when local government budgets

123:57

are falling short in the first half of this year, going into the new fiscal

124:02

year, they will have less to allocate to schools.

124:05

So that's what I'm, uh, seeing. And also going forward to the fall right

124:09

before the September FOMC meeting, we have another jobs report.

124:14

I continue to expect the local government sector education sector to be

124:20

weak, uh, because for this reason, I just don't think it's a one off thing.

124:25

Another place that's really weak is leisure and hospitality.

124:29

And that is due to the reversal of the World Cup high hiring.

124:33

But here, even here, I think it's, uh, pretty alarming.

124:37

So originally it was supposed to be, uh, not alarming because, uh, in spring we

124:44

saw that there was a huge, uh, increase in hiring for leisure and hospitality.

124:48

But in today's report, we also see a massive downward revisions to the last

124:54

two months. Uh, job fair and in fact, 100,000

124:58

downward revisions to jobs. And a lot of it came from leisure and

125:02

hospitality sector. You know, well, we thought that in April

125:07

and May that was a huge increase in hiring in and, uh, hotels and, uh, food

125:13

and restaurants. It actually didn't happen.

125:15

It's or it's a very mild kind of increase.

125:19

And now with this, uh, last two months of July and June's negative, large

125:25

negative print and leisure and hospitality, it basically means that on

125:29

net, it's cutting down, uh, lesion hospitality, uh, level of employment

125:34

from even before the World Cup. Um, so I think I think, uh, that's also

125:39

pretty weak. All in all, I think the bad news in

125:42

today's report, uh, Trump the positive views.

125:45

The only really good sector and in terms of hiring growth is construction.

125:52

And that's driven by, uh, basically data centers.

125:55

Uh oh. Wow.

125:56

That's where I is manifest in this, in this report.

125:59

I want to go back to the data. And of course, you swim in day to day in

126:02

and day out. Uh, but I think there will be people who

126:04

look at these revisions and think there's an inherent problem with the

126:06

data that we're getting on the job market today.

126:08

And you listen to the new fed chair, Kevin Warsh, one of his many task forces

126:12

is one that's centered on data collection.

126:14

And the way that the fed looks at looks at data.

126:16

Um, do you see an even problems with the way that we kind of gauge the health of

126:20

the labor market, or are we not getting the data that we need?

126:22

Is there some sort of deficit that that is stark based on what we saw here in

126:25

terms of the revisions today? Yeah.

126:28

So downward, the persistent downward, uh, revisions to jobs data has been, uh,

126:34

the trend for the last, uh, three years. Really.

126:38

Um, and whenever the direction of revisions is Primarily toward one

126:44

direction. In this case, that worth.

126:46

It suggests that there's something more structural going on that, uh, the first

126:53

cut of the data is not able to show. And usually what that means is that, um,

126:59

the labor market is not as strong as, uh, as as as one thought.

127:04

So this means that whenever you see a blow out job sprint going forward, like,

127:09

uh, over 200 K, I think we all have to take it with a grain of salt.

127:15

Now, as to the precise cause of these downward revisions, well, it is from the

127:20

birth and death model and also from the lower response rate in the first, uh,

127:25

survey of the month. Um, and I think the BLS is actively

127:30

trying to address this problem. Uh, earlier this year, the BLS announced

127:35

a, um, methodological change in the birth and death model that is

127:40

supposedly, Uh, we'll be better able to capture these real time.

127:45

Uh, an increase in hiring and decrease in hiring from jobs, going out of

127:50

business or, uh, new businesses forming. Um, I think I think that, uh, uh, I

127:57

think the BLS and other federal agencies are actively trying to work on this

128:01

problem. Um, and it's it's not because, um, any

128:05

federal agencies did. Attention is fudging the numbers.

128:08

And speaking of Kevin Warsh, uh, they do have another meeting coming up.

128:12

Uh, it looks like your projections are saying you're expecting giving weak

128:16

payrolls and higher layoffs, which you've been telling us.

128:18

Do you think is a stronger signal in the drop in unemployment rate?

128:22

We're also expecting a soft CPI to come out.

128:24

You think that means fed rates are going to hold in September?

128:28

Yes. So so many analysts after today's weak

128:33

job report says all attention will be focused on next week's CPI.

128:38

Um, so my team has spent the last year painstakingly working on collecting

128:44

millions of prices every month. We call this project the Bloomberg Price

128:49

Project and are, um, assessment from looking at, uh, July's um, prices is

128:56

that it will be a modest product next week.

128:59

Year over year. Core CPI is likely to come down to 2.4%,

129:05

and that is up the lowest year over year reading in more than five years.

129:10

That is a very significant because one of the very, uh, very popular talking

129:15

points amongst the FOMC hawks lately is that inflation has been about target for

129:22

more than five years. And therefore the fed needs to, you

129:25

know, start hiking regardless of, uh, you know, the data.

129:30

Well, if CPI is coming down to a new low in more than five years, it means that

129:37

that talking point likely is expiring. Um, taking away a one big reason for why

129:43

so many FOMC members want to hike rates. Maybe I could close by asking you, as we

129:49

kind of linger here on, uh, the Fed and Kevin Warsh, sort of how he might be

129:53

processing the data that we got from the Labor Department on on Friday of this

129:57

week. Um, during the last FOMC at the press

129:59

conference, he talked about the strength of the labor market.

130:01

So much more attention was paid to the inflation side of the Fed's dual

130:04

mandate. Does this at all complicate his

130:07

thinking, the thinking of other policymakers going forward here?

130:09

Obviously, it seems like absent him talking as much as his predecessor did,

130:14

we're listening a lot more to fed governors, other members of that

130:17

committee, sort of. What are you listening for?

130:19

How does this change the way that the fed is approaching the U.S.

130:22

economy? Well, you know, I think that today's

130:27

payrolls report vindicated, uh, Warsh position not to hike rates in the last

130:33

meeting, but it didn't vindicate his communications style.

130:40

The way he explained the decision last week was one month of data doesn't

130:46

matter, right? So by that logic, then to today's week

130:50

payrolls data are very little in his thinking.

130:54

But in fact there's a lot to the market thinking.

130:57

Kevin Warsh also said that let's let the market, uh, determine the signal and

131:03

let's reduce that communications to get a cleaner read of market reaction to

131:09

data. Well, the market today tells Kevin Warsh

131:11

that, well, maybe you don't need to hike rates as much in September.

131:16

Uh, judges, judging from the futures pricing of, uh, the the chance of, uh, a

131:22

rate hike in September. All right.

131:24

And Wang, our chief. Thank you for the US.

131:26

Sarah Bloomberg, thank you so much. Um, that CPI data coming out on

131:30

Wednesday, August 12th will be interesting closely watching that.

131:33

Uh, and again, just fascinating to see the fed navigate all of this.

131:36

There was so much focus on inflation obviously at the last meeting.

131:40

But in recent ones, um, if this will change the degree to which the kind of

131:43

balancing those two risks of interest, I seem to think not yet.

131:46

Here we go. All right.

131:47

Coming up here at the Liv golf tournament, getting a financial

131:49

lifeline. What does that mean for the future of

131:51

the game and for the rival PGA tour? And you can explore live streaming news

131:56

and interviews on our Bloomberg TV shows, documentaries, reporter analysis

131:59

and more, all in one place. Check out Bloomberg.com slash videos.

132:03

We'll be right back.

132:09

Welcome back to Bloomberg. This weekend I'm David Guru alongside

132:11

Christina Ruffini. Round three of the Liv Golf New York

132:14

tournament continues in Bedminster, new Jersey today as the long term future for

132:18

the league remains unclear, with investments from Saudi Arabia's Public

132:21

Investment Fund being halted. The PGA golf CEO Brian Rollup telling

132:26

Bloomberg News there is, quote, no merger, no conversations.

132:29

We've really been concentrated on the PGA tour.

132:32

Source of funding for Liv golf is very much in question.

132:35

It's really interesting. Uh, PGA CEO Brian Rupp also joined

132:38

Bloomberg Money to explain how Liv golf has motivated the PGA tour to evolve.

132:43

When I looked at this opportunity, I just saw the AFL, NFL, which essentially

132:46

created a lot of systemic changes in professional football that started to

132:50

accelerate the growth. I think we've had that moment here.

132:53

So I think the a lot of, um, perhaps shortcomings in professional golf came

132:58

with a little bit of competition where all Americans tradition is a good thing.

133:02

So I think we've we've seen that, and we're trying to build something that

133:05

outlives all of us here. Now for Liv golf BK partners credit arm

133:09

is looking at potentially extending a lifeline to the beleaguered league by

133:12

lending them some money. Talks with BK partners and others are

133:15

advancing, but nothing has been finalized yet and details could change.

133:19

For more on Liv golf new potential investor, we sat down with longtime golf

133:22

writer and author Alan Schneck. He is also the author of the book Live

133:29

and Let Die the inside story of the war between PGA tour and Liv golf.

133:34

As with everything Liv golf, uh, there's a lot of subterfuge.

133:38

There's a lot of cloak and dagger. Uh, no one knows anything.

133:41

To quote, uh, William Goldman talking about Hollywood.

133:44

It's, uh, they have an investor. They went to who?

133:47

It was news broke that it's, uh, BK partners, they are aligned with, um,

133:53

this the sports management agency called GSA worldwide just funneled a bunch of

133:57

top players to Liv golf, including Bryson DeChambeau.

134:00

So there's. This makes sense.

134:02

Um, but the the framework of the deal is obscured.

134:07

Um, you know, they're they have a term sheet.

134:09

They have it shared. This is always how it goes to Liv golf.

134:12

You never get the full picture. Um, so we're all waiting to find out

134:17

that the question is they will get a cash infusion here.

134:21

How much and how long will sustain the tour?

134:23

Because the business model is not working right now.

134:26

It's. It's just a startup that is a bit

134:29

incinerating cash for four and a half years now.

134:32

So they're going to slash the prices. They're going to they're going to

134:36

terminate the the payouts that they owe the players.

134:39

But can they even even at that point, can they make enough revenue just to

134:43

keep the circus going like that is the unknown right now.

134:46

I'm going to read from that statement and all of its vagaries here.

134:49

Liv golf has an agreement in place with a lead investor signed by the investor,

134:53

approved by the board to anchor the transaction and play a key role in

134:56

supporting the path forward for the league's next era, driven by and for the

134:59

players. We anticipate finalizing terms in the

135:01

coming weeks with the goal of entering a transaction in September.

135:05

Could you just explain the predicament that Liv golf finds itself in?

135:09

So still a fairly new league here? You mentioned the cash burn that we've

135:13

seen play out here since its inception. Um,

135:17

how badly is it doing? So the predicament for Liv is that the

135:20

business model needs big stars, but the big stars want guaranteed money.

135:25

They don't have the money to give. So.

135:27

Can they keep the stars and can. Can the tour exist without the stars?

135:31

If there's no guaranteed money? It's this.

135:33

This circular problem. Um,

135:36

there's there's no doubt there. At this point, it seems likely that

135:39

there will be a Liv golf in 2027. It's going to.

135:43

The era of decadence is over. Like these guys are no longer going to

135:46

be living like Louis the 14th. Uh, it's going to be a nice little golf

135:51

tour with smallish purses with a very small footprint playing ten events.

135:57

Um, as a as a game changing, disruptive force like those days are over.

136:02

So, Liv, 2.0, uh, it appears that it will have some foothold in the golf

136:08

world, but, uh, how how relevant it's going to be will depend on if they can

136:14

hold on to their biggest stars, which is really Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau,

136:19

and they're offering them equity in this new league to stay.

136:23

But you know, cash is king. And whether these guys won in the primes

136:28

of their careers want to pledge themselves to a B-list circuit where

136:31

there's no guaranteed payout. That's a big ask of players who have,

136:35

you know, a finite amount of time to to make their hay as professional athletes.

136:40

So there's so many questions that I think

136:43

we can say that there will be a Liv golf in 2027, but, uh, what it's going to

136:47

look like, who's going to play it? And if anyone's going to pay attention,

136:51

those are the big questions. And like, who is watching it?

136:54

Because I will admit I'm not the biggest golf fan.

136:56

Not. But

136:58

I will confirm confirm that. But it just didn't seem like there was

137:01

really a need for this to be disrupted. Like no one was asking for this.

137:05

No one was like clamoring for this. And when you look at the ratings, I

137:09

mean, the PGA Tour's audience on an average day is like 17.78 times larger

137:15

than Liv's final round when it comes to TV audiences.

137:18

What was the goal here? Well, it was an exercise in soft power

137:22

by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Live was never really about golf.

137:27

It was about sports watching. It was about a regime that wanted to

137:32

launder its reputation and wanted a foothold in the Western world.

137:36

And golf was a useful vehicle for that. And that is the starting and ending

137:41

point of what Liv golf has been. Everything else is just noise.

137:45

Now, with the Saudi Public Investment Fund divesting now, Liv has to stand on

137:49

its own just as a pure competition. And that's where, as you know, they've

137:54

struggled that when Liv has played international tournaments, they've done

137:57

pretty well. When they go to Australia or South

138:00

Africa or Korea, they've they've been cagey about picking markets that have

138:04

not had big time golf. And when they take the show on the road,

138:07

they have created some energy in those markets and they have had good turnouts

138:11

for the fans and they've created some positive buzz.

138:15

But they're looking at playing five international events and five domestic

138:20

next year. The tournament in the U.S.

138:22

had been utter disasters because, as you say, the sports fans in the United

138:27

States were not clamoring for another golf league.

138:29

They barely support the PGA tour, which is a proud American institution that's

138:32

been around since more or less the 1920s.

138:34

And so, um, for Liv to try and play half its schedule in the US, to me seems like

138:41

a myth. They should go completely international

138:43

and then they have a chance to succeed. But, um, you know, the BK partners is

138:48

based in the U.S. and so the people are putting the money

138:51

in. They they want to have some tournaments

138:52

here. So

138:54

it's just a struggle for Liv golf. Even when they had some of the best

138:58

players in the world, they couldn't attract an audience here.

139:01

Now they've lost Brooks Koepka, they lost Patrick Reed are already coming

139:04

home to the PGA tour. There's a good chance to lose more

139:07

players next year, so that that is the ultimate question for Liv to succeed as

139:12

a standalone entity. Without the endless cash infusions of

139:16

the public investment fund, it has to generate interest among fans, and that

139:21

that's been an uphill battle from day one.

139:23

Now, let me linger lastly here on on that this kind of schism that we've seen

139:26

in golf. And you mentioned that Liv 2.0 is going

139:29

to be this kind of dress down smaller league compared to what its aspirations

139:33

were and what it was for for a time. Um, I imagine the PGA tour is feeling

139:37

pretty good about this. And I'm wondering just in terms of

139:39

competition here, um, where there is any whatsoever.

139:44

I mean, the case before was, as you mentioned, players could go to live and

139:47

make a lot more money if this is a slimmed down version of what they

139:49

aspired to be or were, um, how do they make that case to to players?

139:53

Is it just inevitably going to lead to more defections, do you think?

139:55

Yeah, there is room for for Liv golf? I mean, three years, four years ago for

140:00

Liv golf arrived. There are only four events on the PGA

140:03

tour where the purse was bigger than $10 million.

140:06

Like $10 million. Used to be an incredible purse.

140:09

And that's kind of what Liv is targeting for next year.

140:12

So it could be a the second or third best tour in golf, potentially.

140:17

But the problem is, because of this, this battle for the soul of the sport

140:23

and live is has been somewhat radioactive.

140:27

There are not pathways of movement in professional golf.

140:31

It's much like baseball though. It's a big leagues as triple AA.

140:34

There's double AA. And so you play in Asia, then you play

140:37

in Europe, then you come to the PGA tour.

140:38

That's the dream. If you're a young aspiring player and

140:42

Liv is frozen out of that system now. So you can go and play these

140:45

tournaments, but you're not going to have the ability to upgrade and to to

140:50

move freely. And that's really its problem.

140:55

A lot of open questions here. Uh, I go back to what he said just about

140:59

the, uh, reason why this was created to begin with.

141:01

That was soft power, that there was a time when the kingdom of Saudi Arabia

141:05

was really looking to expand, obviously, beyond the region, using culture as kind

141:10

of a springboard to to do that. And so that just begs the question for

141:12

me, as I as I listen to al in talking there just about, again, the utility

141:16

your need for for this league. You've got the PGA tour, you've got this

141:19

one now, which in its next iteration just sounds so similar, maybe even like

141:23

a reduced version of the PGA tour. We're also at a moment where some of

141:26

these sovereign wealth funds, especially around the Gulf, are really looking at

141:29

these soft power investments they've made.

141:31

We've even seen that in arts investments, opera companies, soccer

141:34

fields, couple of places that we're relying on Qatari, Emirati, Saudi

141:38

wealth. All of a sudden that's pulling back.

141:40

And what that's doing to these passion projects that are nice, but as with

141:44

this, didn't really need to be there because there already wasn't market.

141:47

When we come back, what is now turned into my weekly embarrassments after a

141:52

long winning streak is being stolen by David Gura.

141:56

And that is the point of news quiz stolen in place of malfeasance.

142:00

None at play here. You know what?

142:02

We're going to find this out when we come back.

142:04

I'm coming for you today, Kara. It's time for one of my favorite moments

142:11

of the show. The point of news quiz.

142:13

Now it's your favorite. Cause I've got my chips are right on the

142:16

table in front of me. Christina counted hers up as well.

142:19

Lisa Mateo. Here is what

142:22

was the week. The questions.

142:23

What do you have questions? Okay, for those playing at home, here's

142:26

how it works. Okay, so they each have 30 chips in

142:29

front of them. They're broken into 30.

142:31

Yes okay. Looking very, very talented.

142:33

They really is. And what they will do is they will place

142:37

their bets on each category to figure out, you know, if you feel like you're

142:41

confident about the first category, you might want to put all your chips on

142:44

there. Or maybe you might want to not put

142:46

something on the second category category because you're like, I don't

142:49

think I know enough about about it. Um, so let's get right to it.

142:52

Okay. Are you ready to play along?

142:53

I'm ready to play your three categories. Here we go.

142:55

The first is trade wars. Trade.

142:59

Yes. The second is malls.

143:01

Very good. And the third is outbreaks.

143:04

Oh okay. So what did you know the most about

143:07

running the gamut there? Uh, I feel I like I'm too confident.

143:11

Are you placing your bets? You know, I haven't used the Ruffini

143:13

strategy in recent weeks. It has worked to my advantage.

143:15

But today I'm going to lean on it. I'm going to go ten on each, ten on each

143:18

category. I'm also going to have ten on each.

143:21

Lisa, look at me. If you let him cheat this week, I will

143:24

follow you to your car. Okay, here we go.

143:26

Here we go. Trade wars.

143:28

Here's your question. In a retaliatory move, China is limiting

143:32

exports to the US of what? Tech product commonly made by DG.

143:37

I see this. So what is DJI.

143:42

Sorry DJI limiting exports to the US of what tech product commonly made by DJI.

143:49

Um what is this product? I.

143:54

Okay. We need a hint.

143:55

Now we do not know. We do not we do not need a hint.

143:58

Yeah. Uh.

143:59

All right. I wrote microchips.

144:01

Microchips? No drones.

144:04

That general picture. David, you're a little excited.

144:06

Oh, look at that. You are correct.

144:08

I know, so President XI Jinping is scheduled to meet with Donald Trump in

144:11

the U.S. next month.

144:12

Yes, they agreed to build this relationship for constructive structure

144:15

stability. Yes.

144:18

Um, so, yeah, Christina is up. All right.

144:20

David. Good.

144:21

I know I gave me some very good wireless microphones.

144:24

A lot of podcasters here. DJI.

144:26

Yeah, those little ones that are the square.

144:28

Those are DJ mikes. They're very good.

144:29

Oh, do we use those? Are these my own?

144:32

This is like, you know, this is more like if you're like a YouTuber, they're

144:35

very popular. Not an endorsement.

144:36

Not a not a paid endorsement. I had it all.

144:39

All right. All right.

144:40

Are you ready for malls? I feel sad.

144:42

I feel good about this category. Christina, you're going to get this.

144:45

Okay. Which edgy American mall staple is being

144:49

sold to the parent company of Spencer's and Spirit Halloween.

144:54

Spencer's. Spencer's is declared.

144:57

Okay, but it's being sold to the parent company of Spencer's.

145:00

And let's see. Gosh, I remember that.

145:05

I want to say something, but I don't want to give him a hint again like I did

145:07

last week. So I'm going to wait.

145:08

I'm going to wait. Come on.

145:09

David. Okay.

145:10

All right. Edgy mall staple.

145:13

An edgy story that I wrote. I wrote Claire's.

145:16

It's that edgy. What are you doing?

145:18

This is a place David has never shopped in his life.

145:21

I believe in a certain topic. You are kind of edgy.

145:25

Hot topic. And Spencers are always next to each

145:27

other. What is Hot Topic?

145:29

I'm sorry, what is hot topic? I like goth a little bit goth.

145:32

What do you say? Right?

145:33

It is 100% yes. If you were an aspiring goth in Colorado

145:37

Springs, Colorado who went to Catholic school and had to wear uniforms, oh, you

145:41

wanted in life was to dress in all the things your mother wouldn't let you buy

145:44

it, huh? So if any seniors are watching the

145:47

program and want to send in photographs of that era in your life which may or

145:51

may not be shown on air, none of their seniors are watching.

145:53

They can't. That would be amazing.

145:55

I don't know. I'm going to text my brother.

145:57

Oh, Lord David Gura. I have 20 tips in front of me.

146:00

And you've got ten there. Yeah.

146:01

You said to me online all these little piles I had a look how nine to outbreak.

146:05

It's the summer doldrums. I feel a little hubristic this morning.

146:08

Okay. I think you're going to get this one.

146:10

I'm not sure about this. Okay, okay.

146:12

Outbreaks. Which food is being blamed for a

146:15

salmonella outbreak across 27 states? Varieties include Tam and Goliath.

146:22

So what food is salmonella? Oh, great.

146:25

Gosh. I mean, I'm talking about cyclospora.

146:27

Which vegetables can come up with? Is that one?

146:31

What food is with it? Um hmm.

146:35

It's a type of food. Yes, it's a type of food.

146:38

I wrote tomatoes, no lettuce, which I know was not right.

146:41

No help. Oh, no, I didn't read that.

146:45

I love that so much. I didn't even know that.

146:48

Yeah, I feel like I'm down for, like, sweet green.

146:51

It was. It was a it's a pretty bad time.

146:53

So what can we eat? What can you eat?

146:57

I know you can't. Cerrito.

146:59

Have you had the Frito? What is it?

147:01

There's an item. Cerrito has no lettuce.

147:04

Maybe. No.

147:05

Hello, Pina. Isn't it as well?

147:07

All right, guys, we're gonna do it. Um, David Carr, I think you got that

147:10

wrong. Yeah.

147:11

I'm sorry. So you have how many do you have got?

147:13

None. But the bonus isn't all.

147:16

No, it is not an all or nothing situation, at least.

147:19

Should we be changing the rules? Bonus, bonus round.

147:23

We always go all in. Is aviation okay?

147:25

Please go all in. Brazil is investing in Micawber okay?

147:31

Hoping it will become a source of sustainable aviation fuel.

147:35

What is Michael Barr and you smell? I hope I said that correctly.

147:41

Mascot Luba. And even those vowels are dancing with

147:44

one another. The air and the

147:46

Brazilian. Yes, yes.

147:48

Uh, the Brazilian, I don't know, uh, might be a aviation fuel.

147:53

What what what is this? Uh, I did say it could be used for

147:57

aviation palm oil, but I got it. Um.

148:00

well. Nope.

148:01

Sorry. It's a fruit curse.

148:04

You know, what would it be? And hold on.

148:07

Yes. Um, it grows on palm trees.

148:10

Okay. Brazil is investing $3 billion.

148:12

That's right. Um, yeah.

148:13

That's why I couldn't remember. But you had the palm oil.

148:17

But it doesn't look like a fruit. I saw this article.

148:19

I thought it was a nut. Eventually.

148:21

Yeah. And they're trying to modify it to

148:23

become, like, larger oil, safer to handle because it has thorns on it, and

148:27

it's not going to handle hard to harvest.

148:29

So, yes. So that means Christina is our champion.

148:33

And you know what? You win.

148:33

You got a prize today? Yes.

148:35

Yeah. Champagne jacket from our Kim loan from

148:39

our colleague Madison, Mo. Segment.

148:41

All right. I'm going to disappear with my way here.

148:44

You can test your knowledge on the ten questions you can find at Bloomberg.com

148:47

or in the Bloomberg Business app. You can take that point.

148:49

Quiz. There are multiple choices available.

148:50

Thank you for joining us on Bloomberg this weekend.

148:53

Tomorrow, starting at 7:00 Wall Street time.

148:54

David Garrick, Lisa Mateo for listeners on the radio.

148:57

Masters in business is up next.

Interactive Summary

This episode covers key developments in Washington, including the Senate confirmation of Todd Blanche as attorney general and the passage of a stopgap spending bill and a new Russia sanctions bill. It also explores the recent labor market report showing unexpected job cuts and a decline in the unemployment rate, alongside analyses of the Federal Reserve's policy, China's economic and AI strategies, and trends in the golf industry and fashion.

Suggested questions

4 ready-made prompts