All right, Alexander, let's talk about

the situation with Project Ukraine, with

uh with Russia, Putin's uh speech to the

United Russia party ahead of the uh

September parliament elections

>> and a far more interesting uh interview

from Putin right after the speech or or

maybe it was recorded before the speech

with uh Rosia Russian media. No,

>> where Putin said some some interesting

stuff uh some some shocking things

actually uh from from Putin during this

one interview. And uh and then we have

the the general situation on the front

line which even the uh the collective

west uh media is starting to admit that

Donbas is is all but lost. Uh you still

have uh drone strikes and uh and and a

missile strike into Vulgogra. you have

drone strikes continuing to to hit the

refineries in Russia, but you also have

Russia hitting military facilities and

uh and refineries and fuel fuel stations

inside of Ukraine as well. So anyway,

the general situation in in Russia with

uh the general military situation in

Ukraine, the situation in Russia, the

speeches from Putin, where do you want

to begin? A lot to get to. Well, I think

the first thing to say is that it's been

one of the busiest 72-hour stretches in

terms of the special military operation

that we have seen from Vladimir Putin. I

mean, there are moments we know when he

gets really deep into things and very

very heavily involved and you get one

thing after another, but this has been

one of the heaviest. So, firstly, he has

a two-day meeting with Lucas Shanka

who's the president of Bel.

which is of that as well.

>> And and he has that meeting in Valdai.

Um which is extremely interesting

because of course Valdai was the

location where he was supposed to be in

December when the Ukrainians launched

drone attacks um which were clearly

intended to kill him. So anyway, so he

meets Lucenko in Vai. Then he comes to

Moscow um on the same day because that's

a two-day meeting with Lucanka. comes to

Moscow, he addresses in the morning the

United Russia party in what is clearly

an election speech. Then in the evening

he has a meeting to discuss the fuel

situation um of which a large chunk of

it is made public and then as you

rightly say he gives this really

incredible interview with Pavl Zarubin

who is of course um not just any Russian

journalist he is the Kremlin's

authorized journalist and that's on

Rosia one and it's broadcast to the

Russian people and very interestingly It

contains several very shocking as you

rightly say and very sensitive things.

So shocking and so sensitive in fact

that whilst the Kremlin has provided a

Russian transcript of this interview, it

is it is got sections of the interview

deleted and there has been no English

translation of the interview provided.

that as you correctly say is the single

most re revealing do uh revealing set of

comments of all. It it is so extensive

that I like yourself I I suspect it was

recorded first before all of these other

various meetings took place. But it it

is nonetheless within the last couple of

hours because in it Putin gives a very

detailed

the most detailed account of the whole

situation on the front lines that I've

seen him give ever and um that clearly

is well up to date. So he can't have you

know he can't have done it very long

ago. So a a a an extremely intense

period of activity from Putin and the

reason for this is a number there's a

number of things. Firstly, he says very

clearly and he says this both to the

United Russia party and at the meeting

with the people who deal with the energy

situation and in Zarubin, the program

with Zarabin that there is a major

information campaign underway from the

West, not just Ukraine, but from the

West in order to try to destabilize the

situation in Russia. the internal

situation in Russia. So there's been the

attacks on the refineries, there's been

the attempts to create fuel shortages.

Above all, there's been a big campaign,

information campaign intended to create

the appearance of fuel shortages. And he

goes into great length to discuss all of

this. He says that in reality there is

as much fuel in Russia now as there was

roughly this time last year. There is no

overall shortage of fuel. But all of

this campaign, this information

campaign, which has clearly been very

coordinated and which has led to um

presumably there's been messages and all

sorts of things being circulated in

Russia itself that that has led to panic

buying in some places and this is

creating problems. Um he's now put

himself in charge of a committee

basically intended to sort this out. his

energy minister uh um Alexander Novak is

also directly involved. So he says

there's an information campaign to try

to create uncertainty and

destabilization

inside Russia. He he says that yes, of

course, we have these drone attacks and

they are a problem, but he says that,

you know, we're going to sort this out

soon. We got air defense systems coming.

And then he provides this incredibly

detailed disc discussion of what the

situation on the front lines is. And he

paints an absolutely disastrous

situation for Ukraine, which by the way

I believe is true. I I don't think that

this is propaganda. I think this is an

accurate description of the situation on

the front lines. And then there's the

part of this that we don't know which is

what he discussed with Luc Shanka. But

I'm assuming that we're going to get

military deployments in Belleris by the

Russian military and by the way they are

in a position to make those military

deployments. And then lastly and most

incredible of all he talks about the

diplomacy. He tells us that there was in

fact no real agreement made in

Anchorage. The Americans did make a

proposal. The Russians accepted it. The

Americans have now walked away from

their own proposal. He's still prepared

to have interactions with the Americans.

But clearly Anchorage, whatever it was

that Putin and Trump did agree on, and

they did agree on something despite what

everybody is now saying now, that's all

dead. It's been written off. That's in

the past. But the Russians have been

getting messages from someone. Perhaps

Lucenko brought them with him when he

met with Putin. Possibly the Europeans

have been communicating it. This is

might have come from President Coer of

the European Council who we know has

been in touch with the Russians perhaps

through other parties that the Russians

have been getting proposals

firstly to agree a ceasefire

um in the war in the sky and Putin

rejected that completely and then

alternatively

a ceasefire in part of the front lines

to limit the fighting to Donbass,

Zaporosia and Hersan regions, but to

have a ceasefire everyone else

everywhere else in Kharkov region,

Sunumi region, in the process region and

Putin said that this is an obvious

device to try to um enable the

Ukrainians who are suffering severe

manpower shortages to redeploy their

forces to to u hold the Russians back in

Donbass And in what Putin said was

Novorosia. And Putin again talks now

about Novorosia. He doesn't just talk

about Zaporosia and Hers region. As

every Baldi knows,

Novorosia,

the Russian province of Novorosia,

was a huge territory that includes

Adessa.

I believe that Adessa was the actual

capital of this region and he's talking

now about the Russians continuing

operations to liberate the whole of

Navarosia. So an extraordinary uh uh set

of meetings, discussions, speeches um

Putin trying to do various things at one

and the same time to to reassure and

stabilize the internal situation which

is where the only real threat comes to

provide us with an insight as to the

kind of negotiations that are taking

place. um to coordinate in some way with

Lucas Shanka and to give us an update

about the situation on the front lines.

As I said, an extraordinary performance

from Putin, if you will, and perhaps

just to say he's finally been listening

to these people who are have been

warning him that if he continued along

the line that he's been taking up to

now, he would lose the information war.

He's finally seems to have understood

that and decided that he has to take

action about it.

>> Yeah. Dealing with the the stabilization

of uh of the domestic on the domestic uh

front, the the drone strikes and and all

of that stuff. uh he didn't really give

a solution to that. How he's going to

deal with uh with the pressure that that

the West is placing on on Russia to try

and destabilize things to uh to try and

cause chaos. Uh the drone strikes

hitting refineries, the drone strikes

hitting civilian targets. He said he

actually used the word terrorism. So he

used that word as well. Um, I believe he

used that during his speech to uh to

United Russia, but he didn't really

provide any any solutions as to how he's

going to deal with that. I mean, he

talked about getting fuel to Crimea. He

talked about how the how things are not

critical. Um, it has caused problems,

the strikes into Russia, but but it's

not at a critical level. He talked about

Russia's reserves. We're hearing reports

about uh export bansu uh on fuel and

diesel,

but but he's not getting to the root

cause of it, is he? No, he he continues

to avoid it.

>> Um

>> well, can I can I can I say something? I

mean, he he didn't really he didn't

really I don't know. In my opinion, he

didn't really address what the root

cause is.

>> He just he just talked about, you know,

Russia taking a more of a defensive

position.

>> He he entirely took a defensive

position. He says that they're going to

ramp up air defense. And he seemed

fairly confident that the additional air

defense would be sufficient to deal with

the situation. He said this some time

ago, by the way. He said that if the uh

air defense forces had actually prepared

in advance for this um um then this

problem would never have arisen in the

first place because Ukrainian drones are

easy to shoot down. He said this about

two weeks ago actually. And um the

previous air defense chief had um

actually was actually sacked I think um

on the strength of that. I I I think

that Putin believes that this is going

to be sufficient to deal with the

problem and um the word in some quarters

and I difficult for me to to assess this

is that um over the last couple of days

the Ukrainians have launched lots of

drones but that the numbers that are

getting through are starting to dwindle.

So I I think that Putin is fairly

confident that he can get through this

and I think he's also very confident

that he can get through the problem with

the oil and fuel shortages which he puts

down overwhelmingly to panic buying. If

you're talking about taking aggressive

actions against the West, he didn't talk

about that and he didn't say this

because as far as he's concerned, the

problem is not a problem of actual real

damage done inside Russia. It is of an

information campaign and that's I think

what he feels he needs to counter.

>> Yeah. He's I think it's very clear that

he's going to to play defense on this

one.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. Yes.

>> I mean, I think that's his his position.

I don't think he's going to deviate from

that.

>> No, no,

>> no.

>> It was obvious.

>> He's he's telling what he's basically

telling people. Look, we've got this

under control. We got plenty of fuel. We

got plenty of oil. By the way, export

bans on diesel especially are very

common at this time of year

>> because the Russian uh um the Russian

economy uh especially the agricultural

part of the economy uses heavy large

amounts of diesel to bring in the

harvest. So export bans on diesel um

regularly take place um at this time of

year. I've seen this happen several

times before. Um issues with gasoline. I

think he puts that down mostly to panic

buying and he's going I think he's going

to try and say to people that this is

all about panic buying. Don't be scared

by it and we've got we got the situation

under control. We've got abundant energy

and fuel. We can we can deal with this.

Crimea and Hersan regions, which are

frontline regions,

are in a different position from what

you might call pre204

Russia. They they've had to absorb

attacks many times over the course of

this war. Crimea especially. Um for

Putin, what is particularly sensitive is

what goes on in pre204 Russia. uh where

I think and I've discussed this in

previous programs he's particularly

concerned to preserve the spirit of

normaly that exists there.

>> Yeah, he he did he did admit that

the drones are are are causing problems.

I mean he he he had to admit he would

have been he would have been extremely

unwise to have done otherwise.

>> I believe it's the first time he has

admitted this.

>> Yeah, I know. But it would have been

extremely unwise to have done otherwise.

Even if the amount was, you know, even

if the problem is most mostly panic

buying, the worst thing a m the worst

mistake um a political leader can make

when there is an apparent problem is to

deny that the problem exists even if the

problem has been massively exaggerated.

I I was I remember being told all this

by my aunt uh years ago when she was a

minister in the Greek government. I mean

the the thing you do the thing you must

do is first firstly admit that there is

a problem tell everybody that you're in

the process of getting a handle on it

and then when you do get a handle on it

when the situation with supplies for

example stabilizes then of course you

take credit for the fact that you have

got a handle on it but telling everybody

don't worry there's no nothing going on

the situation is under control is

extremely ly extremely uh foolish

behavior. Many Western politicians do

it. Um Putin is far too experienced to

make that mistake.

>> Yeah. Okay. Um Mhm. the uh

what I what I got from from his from his

statements is is that the there will be

no asymmetric or or or symmetric

response to to Ukraine or the West

launching missile strikes or drone

strikes into Russia even pre204 Russia.

I think the general

the the general message from Putin is

we're going to focus on Donbas

and on strikes hitting Moscow or

Petersburg or Crema or or anywhere else.

We're just going to play defense. I

think I think that's I don't want to

oversimplify it, but but that's the

general position that he took. He's

going to rem remain focused on the front

line and on Donbas

and everything else is just going to be

a more of a defensive posture.

>> I I think that is basically true.

>> Basically, I'm simplifying it. I want to

just be clear. I'm simplifying it. But

that that was a general message that he

put out there.

>> I I I don't think it is entirely true.

Um he spoke to the this is where the

election address to the United Russia

party was particularly interesting

because he said that Russia has been

Russia has been placed under

extraordinary pressure. There is clearly

an attempt to destabilize the situation

inside Russia. He made it very clear

that it is the west altogether that is

doing this and he did so in ways that

suggested to me that we are probably

going to see as asymmetric reactions.

Now he didn't talk about that because I

think a lot of this is going to be

covert and unfortunately that is the

problem because covert operations

like saying supplying more drones to

Iran. I'm just saying that that kind of

thing. Um it might actually have an

effect. It might actually cause hurt to

the west, but of course it isn't

something that anybody knows about

because by definition it is covert. So

he he may be in the process of doing

things, the Russians may be in the

process of doing things, but in a world

where information

manipulation and information control is

so important and so powerful. I'm not

sure that it makes much difference.

>> Look, I I think the West is going to to

go through this this uh this speech and

this interview of Putin, if they even

are listening to Putin anymore. But

they'll they if they go through this, I

think they'll they'll interpret it as as

Putin conceding that Russia can now be

hit. Even pre204, Russia can now be hit

with drones and and long-range missiles.

And I think they'll they'll look at it.

They'll interpret it as as as Putin u

moving away from what was a red line

that he defined in 2020

23 24 right before Trump took office.

So, so now that we're talking about

concession, this is how I think they

will interpret it because he may do

covert things and he may do other other

asymmetric things that that that are

that are in response to to the strikes

into Russia, but as you rightly said, um

I don't think it's going to register

with many of the leadership in the

collective west. Now,

>> I think I think these people are are not

receptive to those kind of messages. And

this is something maybe that Putin

doesn't understand. I he said a couple

of days ago that um if there are missile

strikes or drone strikes carried from

Europe carried out from European

territory then the Russians will conduct

counter strikes and the Europeans know

that and that's why they don't do it.

Well maybe but in all other respects

provided it looks as if the drones and

the missiles are coming from Ukraine.

Um,

whatever the Russians do and whatever

they might be communicating privately to

the Americans, and it's mostly the

Americans that we'll be talking to, I I

don't think the Americans are going to

pay much attention.

>> Yeah. Going on on on the theme of

concessions, an admission from Putin

that he did make concessions to Trump in

uh in Alaska, how do how do we read

that? Uh the most likely concession that

he made in my opinion was freezing

Zaparo and Herson.

>> That was probably the big concession

that that he made

>> that that that has been massively talked

about. It has never been confirmed. It's

not even confirmed by Yes. I It's it's

it's not being confirmed even by the

Americans. It's very very difficult to

get a sense of what exactly it was that

Putin and Trump agreed about agreed with

each other in Alaska. But the Russians

have always said that Witkoff came to

Moscow with a proposal. The Russians

decided to accept or rather I should

correct that Putin decided

to accept that proposal.

Doing so was difficult because it

required concessions from the Russian

side. This is something that Putin has

often said and Lavough has often said

and um the um other members of the

Russian leadership as I very well

remember were clearly not happy about

it. Um and we've never been told what

those concessions were. But the rumors,

the stories that have circulated at the

time is that it was for a freeze in

Zaporosian Hersong region a as the

Russians rather as the Ukrainians

withdrew from Donbas. [laughter] I I I

think we are now going beyond this

actually and this takes us back to what

Lavro has now been saying because

Lavough

is sort of suggesting

that um Anchorage all along was an

American trick that it was an act of

duplicity

that what the Americans were really

angling for was again a ceasefire.

on the existing conflict lines. So what

they were trying to do was to get Putin

to agree to this formula that Trump

presented with presented him with maybe

do some kind of deal or something and

then the Americans would have said well

we've now got this agreement the

Ukrainians will withdraw from Donbass

so let's have a ceasefire until that

happens and I I that's what Lavro seems

to be ending at. And it would make

complete sense given that we know that

the person who actually came up with the

proposal that Witkoff took with him to

Moscow was none other than General

Kellogg. [snorts]

So given that it was Kellogg's idea,

Kellogg who first proposed that the

Ukrainians withdraw from Donbass,

um I it starts to look as if it was

indeed some kind of a trap.

Well, we we do have reports,

>> very good reports which claim that

Whitov actually when when he was in

Moscow, he wrote on a piece of paper, I

believe he wrote three three and two in

that the the deal was uh Donets Lugans

Crea

>> and the two that the the two concessions

were Heron Zaparo.

>> Yeah.

>> The freeze. I mean, we have a lot of

reports which which which I I believe

are are accurate at this point because

it's it's reports from from uh from

Russian media, from uh from US media and

they all come to the same conclusion and

we've talked about this many times that

most likely that was the the scenario. I

believe even Lavro touched upon this. He

never stated anything in in in the

definite,

>> but I believe he did touch upon sort of

a phased out uh withdrawal of Ukraine

from the the constitutionally recognized

regions of Zapad and Jan, but it would

be it would be phased out. It wouldn't

be it would be a freeze and then Russia

would and then Ukraine would over time

um move out. But

>> whatever it was,

>> there's there's nothing definitive. We

don't have anything in writing and Putin

said as much and and and these are just

media reports and a couple of statements

from Russian officials and they dance

around the the subject.

>> Yeah.

>> But

the 32 model does look like that was

that was the proposal.

>> Well, yeah, but this is what this is

what I got to say. Whatever it was that

Putin and Trump agreed with each other,

and they did they did come to some kind

of agreement, notwithstanding what each

of them is now saying, whatever it was,

it's clearly very embarrassing to both

of them. It's embarrassing to Trump and

it's embarrassing to Putin because if it

was not, we would surely have by now

been told what it was. So that's that's

that's I think the one thing we can

definitely say probably there was there

was a proposal for a ceasefire in or a

freeze in Zaparosia in Hong regions and

probably

there was an agreement that the

Ukrainians would withdraw from Donbass

about that I think we can be fairly

confident

>> but whichever which but but as I said it

was something that neither side wants to

actually tell us exactly what it was

despite the fact that from what I can

tell the documentation is all over the

place. I mean there's lots of

documentation that sets it out and

obviously there's a stenographic record

of what the two of them discussed at the

meeting. It's all history now because

the Americans have said that there was

no deal in Anchorage and the Russians

are now saying that there was no deal in

Anchorage. Putin has just said there was

no deal in Anchorage. There was just a

discussion of possibilities. So

Anchorage is dead. Whatever it was that

each conceded to the other, it's now

history.

>> Well, I I I don't know about what the US

conceded, but I don't understand why

Putin would would say, and I quote, we

were asked to accept the compromise

formulated by the American negotiators.

We agreed. We agreed. That's that's his

words. His words.

>> Yes.

>> Why would I mean, why didn't he just

leave it at

>> there was no deal. There was no written

agreement in Anchorage. full stop ended

there. Why would he take it one step

further and say the US asked us for

compromises

and we agreed?

>> Well, the

>> why would you say that?

>> Well, there's nothing you really

strange.

>> Lav Lavough has been saying this for

months. I mean, all the way back to

November, he's been saying that this was

an American proposal. The Americans were

asked to implement the proposal. They

weren't able to. There was apparently

and this is this is we've had this all

from Lavough uh uh over many months that

Putin asked Trump at Anchorage right

this is this is what we've agreed with

each other can you guarantee that you

will be able to get Zalinski to act on

this and Trump allegedly told Putin I

was say allegedly I mean Lavrov says

this I'm I'm prepared to accept that

this is true And Trump told Putin, "Yes,

I can guarantee I will get Zalinski to

work to move forward with this." And of

course, it didn't happen. And then Trump

uh starts talking again about an

unconditional ceasefire on the existing

conflict lines. And then there's the

talk about the supply of atom missiles.

And then there's an angry call between

Putin and Trump in which Putin asks

Trump, "Why aren't you moving forward

with your own proposal?" And then Trump

proposes this summit meeting in Budapest

which doesn't happen. And then we get a

whole pointless exercise of what now

really looks like obfiscation with

Dimmitrif and Witgov coming up with 28

point proposals which lead nowhere as

well. So the the point about the

Russians accepting an American proposal

in Anchorage, we've known about that

since about September.

But I I still don't understand this

statement from Putin.

>> Okay. Um I'll I'll I'll leave it there.

Um what what a monumental gigantic waste

of time and what a failed strategy.

That's my opinion from coming from the

Kremlin. But anyway,

>> failed failed failed fail failed

strategy altogether by everybody. Um and

one which has just created distrust. If

if the American intention, which is what

Lavro is now saying, was to get a

ceasefire, then clearly it failed and

that might explain a lot of the

frustration and anger that that does

appear to exist around this in

Washington as well. and clearly a failed

strategy on the part of the Kremlin

because they continued to try to work

with um Trump

uh and thought they spent an enormous

amount of time in the spring and early

summer to try to move these things

forward and to secure some kind of a

deal with the Americans and that wasn't

going to happen either. So I it's it's

one of those situations and I think this

is where I come back to a point I've

made many many times. If you conduct

negotiations in this incredibly

unconventional way, if instead of having

proper diplomats and proper negotiating

sessions with proper negotiating teams,

if you rely on people like Dimmitrif and

Witoff to do all the work for you,

you're inevitably going to end up with

massive misunderstandings of the

position of the other side. Everything

is going to fall apart. a huge amount of

time is going to be wasted and all that

you're going to get is more mistrust and

a lot of embarrassment and that's I

think where we are.

>> But Putin knows this.

>> Oh, absolutely. Everything that you said

he knows this but he still went down the

the

>> Yeah, absolutely. I think he played he

played along He played along with Trump.

He played a wrong He played a roe Trump.

>> He did. Exactly. I mean he did it

because he wanted to see obviously he

thought he thought that there would be

some way forward but it was it never

happened. So but anyway it's just it's

history. Now the point is the point is

that on the issue of Donbass he never

made a concession. He he refused to make

any concessions and the Europeans and

the uh Ukrainians perhaps stupidly

wouldn't play along with what Trump

wanted which is obviously their folly.

The the good part was opening up

dialogue with the United States, was

getting a meeting with Trump in Alaska.

>> Yeah.

>> The bad part was that that Putin should

have should have forgotten the entire

thing the minute the drones started to

fly into

>> Valdai.

>> He should have forgotten about the

entire thing. The minute Trump started

to walk everything back, he should have

said, "You know what? We tried. We went

to Alaska. We had our meeting. We even

made concessions. We we we did our

absolute best.

>> Yeah.

>> But but there's no there's there's no

way moving forward with this

administration. They just sent drones

into my residence in Valdai.

>> It's over. But we went from April all

the way to to now and and Putin

continued to try and and appease Trump

over the past couple of months.

>> Yeah.

>> Which has led to to Lav is right. It has

given the United States and NATO and

Ukraine a a bit of time and space so

that they can organize the drone

campaign, but more importantly organize

the propaganda and media campaign that

goes along with the drones. And we're

seeing that now in full force. It's

article after article now about Putin

drowning and Putin's in trouble. And

there's going to be regime change and

Putin's going to lose Crema. And then

you have a soldier talking about how

he's going to march to the all the

stupidest things in the world.

>> But this is obviously organized without

a doubt. All of this is extremely

organized and coordinated. This is I

think Lavro's point is that

>> Putin by not cutting losses back when

the drones were hitting his home. He

provided a couple of more months for the

Trump administration and the media and

Zilinsky and the Europeans to to get

everything in order so so we can come to

this point where we are today. I I I

mean the drone offensive I think was

basically decided by Trump back in May

of last year to be honest. I remember

when the discussion took place that that

by the way was the moment when Putin

arguably should have called this thing

off. He should have said to Trump,

"Look, I mean, you want me to sit down

and negotiate with you and now I'm

reading in I think it was the New York

Times um that you have actually been

encouraging Zilinski to conduct drone

and missile strikes against my capital.

I mean, don't you understand that there

is a fundamental discordance between

these two approaches?" I mean, that that

was that was probably that that surely

was uh the mistake. I I I don't think

what has happened since Vald Dai has

made much difference there because if I

have to be honest there haven't been any

negotiations meaningful negotiations

anyway since Vald Dai the one thing that

has continued to happen is that the

Americans and the Russians do still

speak to each other and the Russians

the Russian media are still under

instructions not to criticize Donald

Trump and I think again I am I've

discussed this I think this is causing a

lot of stress amongst many people in

Russia itself. I think the partly the

strategy is you know prepare for the day

when the war is won, talk with the

Americans after that and at the same

time try to maintain some kind of

dialogue with the Americans in order in

the in the perhaps a fullon hope that

the Americans might act possibly as some

kind of restraint on these crazy people

in Europe who are indeed becoming very

crazy. By the way, there there's the the

Russians are still getting proposals

which are very interesting proposals in

themselves and Putin is apparently

rejecting them. So, ceasefire in the sky

which the Americans have been trying to

push since the spring of last year.

There's been endless proposals from the

Americans and from the Ukrainians for an

end to to drone and missile strikes by

each side on the other. Putin is having

none of that. He says the Americans the

well, he didn't say the Americans, but

the West knows perfectly well that our

strikes on Ukraine are multiple times

more powerful and affected than what the

Ukrainians are managing on us. So

there's not going to be a ceasefire

there and as I said this extraordinary

idea of a ceasefire on all the other

front lines and a focus instead leaving

the fighting in Donbass and Upper Roia

to continue. So you can see that there

is still all kinds of attempts being

made by all sorts of people probably

through multiple intermediaries quite

probably through uh global south

intermediaries as well just saying to

try to get the Russians to agree to a

temporary ceasefire in some form to take

the pressure off the Ukrainians and

Putin has rejecting everyone. Well, this

brings me to my next point. You actually

made my my point, my question to you.

You actually answered much of it. But

the reason that the the the collective

west and the Europeans on the

instruction of the US, there's no way

that the Europeans are actually making

this proposal without the US telling

them to go make this proposal. The

reason they come up with ideas like uh

like fighting being uh restricted only

to the four regions.

>> Yeah. or or or or let's let's uh let's

not have any any um um air strikes, no

more no more u like a no-fly zone is

basically what they're saying. That's

what they're proposing. Yeah.

>> The reason they come up with these

proposals is because they understand

that if they throw enough proposals at

Putin and if they approach it in

different various ways, eventually

they're thinking their thinking is that

eventually he'll bite on one of them

like he did in Alaska or like he did

with Minsk or like he did with 2022 and

remove your troops from from surrounding

Kiev or I mean this is their thinking.

I'm not saying this is correct and I'm

not saying that Putin is is is he's

rejecting these proposals, but their

their thinking is keep on pushing all of

these proposals on him.

>> Let's try different techniques. Let's

try Trump calling him. Let's try try

Trump uh flattering him. Let's try Trump

uh uh bashing him. Let's do all these

different things. Let's try Gosta. Let's

try Stub. Let's try Schwarter. Let's try

Merkel.

You know, I'm exaggerating a bit, but

eventually he'll agree to something. Oh,

no.

>> Because he always has in the past.

>> There's absolutely no doubt that that is

correct. I mean, he engaged the

Europeans, first the Europeans and then

the Americans. In years of negotiations,

he made concessions. He agreed to Minsk

one. He agreed to Minsk 2. He um agreed

to Istanbul, which many Russians also

saw by the way, as a big concession. Um

he agreed to um he agre agreed to do

whatever it was that he agreed in um

Istanbul, sorry, not in Anchorage. So of

course, you come you throw all of these

proposals at him. You do it from all

directions. You get Erdogan to do it.

You get Modi probably to do it. You

definitely get Lula to come up with

proposals. You talk to the Chinese as

well. You do everything like this to

keep this pressure on Putin. But what

Putin is basically saying in this

interview with Zarabin is that this is

in the past now. We made concessions.

We're not making any more concessions.

This strategy that the West is uh

engaging in, this diplomatic strategy is

going to fail. and the pressure they're

going to put on us is going to fail. And

you know, I made all of those uh

concessions to them in the past, but I'm

not going to be doing that again. And in

a sense, I mean, I think that's probably

true. I mean, Razarin made the point

that negotiations between the Americans

and the Russians and over the whole

issue of Ukraine have now come to

essentially a stop. So, he doesn't seem

to be in the mood to make any

concessions. But you're perfectly

correct. The fact that he's done it in

the past leads them to think that

perhaps he may.

>> I think there are people like Zarub and

like Lav like Medved who are telling

Putin in their own different ways

enough. You've made sure so many

concessions over the past 10 years.

>> Yes,

>> please no more.

>> There are the parts of the Kremlin which

are pressuring Putin. Come on, man. Just

make a deal and let's go back to the way

things were in 2010 or something. I'm

sure there are parts of the creme. I

don't know how much influence they have.

>> It's probably on the downward,

>> right? Their their influence.

>> Yeah.

>> But he definitely has that as well.

>> Putin Putin's character, his character

and his instinct, I I think is is

leaning is always leaning more towards

to his credit is always leaning more

towards uh diplomacy and talking. I

mean, at the end of the day, Putin is

without a doubt uh a moderate through

and through,

>> right? So, so I think his his his his

instinct, his character definitely is

not towards the hard line. He definitely

feels more comfortable

>> on the on the diplomacy uh front.

>> Well, one of the reasons he he does is

because he's very good at diplomacy. And

as as often happens with people who are

very good at something, they perhaps

over rely on it. Um he he is and this is

the thing always to remember about

Putin. He is a civilian. He does not

have a background in the military. A

military man in Putin's position might

take a different approach. He might play

diplomacy down and focus on war more.

But

>> he was an intel. He was an intel. But

but in intelligence as any everybody

who's been involved in it has often told

me does involve an awful lot of what

might be called diplomacy too. So I

think this is partly the background and

he's been a lawyer as well and lawyers I

should say what they are first and

foremost always is negotiators. Now let

let me just actually talk about this

because about um the pressures on Putin

to negotiate and not to negotiate

because a Russian journalist very

well-connected very well-informed

Russian journalist Marathulin has now

provided us an interesting insight. He

says that he was very uh he was informed

and knows for a fact that back in

February 2022 when the decision to

launch the special military operation

started

um the um economic block of the

government

silana for the finance ministry people

in the commerce ministries um and

Nabulina and no doubt of the um central

bank said you know hold on is this

really a good idea can't we come up with

a more soft approach can't we find

negotiations

to you know ease this thing do we really

have to start the special military

operation and even more interesting some

important regional governments in Russia

um said the same saying they were also

apparently

um opposed or had doubts about the SMO.

And I'm going to guess that these were

the regions in the Arctic and in Western

Siberia and the Eurals who were most

connected with the um oil and gas

industry.

And on that occasion uh Putin overrode

them and that was probably very

difficult. Now that was I think where

the real opposition came. Um I think

that it did not come so much from people

within what you might call the inner

core of the Kremlin, the um security

council, people of that kind. Now, since

February 2022,

the concerns of the economic block and

of these regional governments have

probably been moderated very

considerably. I think that there are

people who want to see a return to

normal and a return to what existed not

just before pre February 2022, but

probably to what existed before February

2014. In other words, a complete retreat

all the way back to the position Russia

took before u the Maidan events before

uh Crimea and all of that. But I think

that they are outside the Kremlin now. I

don't think that they wield much

influence. Um and I think that there are

still perhaps some forces within the oil

and gas industry that are giving Putin

that advice. But I think that their

influence has fallen very considerably.

The people who

are giving the advice in the Kremlin, I

think overwhelmingly they want him to

take a harder line. So it's Putin who is

the moderate, the negotiator,

the lawyer, the per the the the

diplomat, the person who talks to the

bricks leaders. It's Putin who

represents moderation in the Kremlin. I

don't think there's anyone else.

>> Uh Novarosia, his statement about

Novarosia.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah,

>> his statement he also made statements

about uh a buffer expanding the buffer

zone. Uh Sumi

>> Yeah.

>> Uh Kov

what I

[laughter]

>> is a town in Poland.

>> Yeah. I was you know you know what it's

it's it's the outro to my video and for

some reason it popped in my head where

on all my videos I have the outro that's

actually the the main square in in in

KCO in Poland. So anyway, a beautiful

square by the way.

>> Absolutely.

>> The uh Harov and he even brought up

Kursk. Just your final thoughts on on

those statements. They're going to pay

for Kursk, he said,

>> which is an interesting statement

because Kursk was a year half ago. Hold

on one sec. Yeah.

>> Yeah. Absolutely. Well, I think the

first thing to say is that he pre

presents an absolutely catastrophic

situation for Ukraine on the front

lines. And he says, and I'm sure he's

right about this, that this is partly

the urgency to try to get the Russians

to persuade the Russians to stop that um

despite all the narrative, all the media

propaganda, all the talk about Ukraine

winning back the initiative that the

reality is the exact diametric opposite

that the things are going from bad to

worse. He he seemed to suggest Liman 99%

under Russian control. Constantinfka 96%

under Russian control. The Russians

making big advances in all sorts of

other places. Let's let's talk about

Novarosia. I've already said this.

Novoria, if we're talking about the

Tarist region of Novoria, that

absolutely includes Adessa. That

includes all of R uh Ukraine's Black Sea

coast. I I have had the sense since the

autumn of last year that Putin has

basically been telling the military,

"Your ultimate objective is in fact

Adessa." So I I, you know, he he even

took them, I remember, to the tomb of

Peter the Great and Katherine the Great.

This is, you know, way back in the

autumn of last year. And he said, you

know, these are these are the people who

should inspire you. Peter played a big

role in defeating the west in Ukraine in

Pava and Katherine of course is the

founder of Adessa. So I you know I I

think that the signals there are very

very clear. He talks about Kusk. He

talks about revenge for Kusk.

Very interesting. And again

what does it mean? Well, I thought what

he said about the city of Sunumi was

very interesting. He said, "On the one

hand, we're still only talking about

buffer zones. Um, we're still um we've

got still got no political interest in

the city of Sunni, but ultimately it is

for the military to decide what they

should do." So in effect he's leaving

the decision or he says he's leaving the

decision to the soldiers to decide

whether to capture Sunumi or not. And

frankly that all but tells me that the

decision to capture Sunumi has been

made.

All right we will end the video there.

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