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''Turkey Will Make A Substantial Comeback In The Financial Markets''

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''Turkey Will Make A Substantial Comeback In The Financial Markets''

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274 segments

0:00

turkey will be going to the polls in

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about three days on the 14th of May it's

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one of the most critical and

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consequential elections in the 100 Years

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of Republican history one of the most

0:14

important matters in the electorates

0:18

mind is of course how this inflationary

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spiral will be ended what kind of

0:25

policies will be implemented either by

0:28

the current rulers or if the opposition

0:31

wins by the cadres of the opposition

0:34

Coalition called the nation Alliance

0:37

today my guest is Dr kerim Rota

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currently the deputy

0:44

chairman of

0:46

galaxies responsible for economic

0:49

policies Dr Rota welcome thank you

0:52

economic policy is one of the most

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important methods for this for this

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campaign and for these elections if the

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opposition wins what are you proposing

1:02

to do to get us out of this quandary

1:05

thank you first of all I mean the first

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promise that the nation Alliance is

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giving to the public is

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cutting getting back to inflation to

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single digit again in two years time

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unfortunately turkey is facing one of

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the highest inflations in the world both

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on the food side are and both on the

1:30

consumer

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inflation so the promise is to go back

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to single digit levels and of course we

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are pretty much aware that at the moment

1:43

[Music]

1:44

Turkish wealth distribution and income

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distribution is one of the worst levels

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in history it is a trend in all over the

1:55

world but I mean Turkish distribution is

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much much worse right now so we will

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implement the policies to make the

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income distribution better in a medium

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term so the target is from two to five

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years there you know financial markets

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are concentrated in the short term

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primarily

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and when I read most of the commentary

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on Turkey on the Turkish economy it's

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really the level of the interest rate

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and the level of the Turkish currency

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whether it's overvalued or undervalued

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and all that

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and so for our audience maybe this is

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one of the most important questions what

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is your policy going to be vis-a-vis the

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currency and vis-a-vis the interest

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rates

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first of all we have to close

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immediately the Turkish credibility gap

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there's a big credibility gap in the

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government as well as on the central

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bank brsa and all the corporations and

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on the economy management so in order to

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close that credibility gap Gap we have

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to do things the first of all we have to

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appoint proper people to those

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corporations starting with the central

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bank and say

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afterwards we have to

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implement a medium-term program

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immediately a very credible medium term

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program to gain the confidence of the

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domestic investors as well as the

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international

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investors and of course we are targeting

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stability in the effects market and as

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well as on the interest rate Market on

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40 turkey lost their markets in the last

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six months periods the current FX Market

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interest rate Market even the loan and

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deposit Market is not functioning

3:57

the prices are not proper there prices

4:00

are not fair so we have to get back our

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markets and in order to do that of

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course we will announce a very decent

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program and we have we will appoint a

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very liable competent competent people

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to the place well

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the leader of the opposition Mr

4:23

kalistarol who is a candidate for

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presidency

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suggests that with the economic program

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that you're likely to implement

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upwards of maybe 300 billion dollars

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will gradually come into into turkey and

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that will actually put our

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books back in Back Back in Balance how

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do you propose to do that how are you

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going to get the financial markets again

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you talked about a credibility gap to

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trust the Turkish management of the

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economy again or the financial sector

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are the banks in solid state the private

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banks in particular so that they can

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deal with the outside Financial agents

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as well

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uh first of all uh I think 300 billion

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dollar is not a dream because turkey did

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things uh be uh I suppose it's over a

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period of over five years

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I will just give you a figure in 2014

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the Turkish there are assets of foreign

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investors were 200 billion Turkish lira

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now it's 25 billion uh Turkish lira in

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the meantime most of the foreign inflows

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has went back to other countries and

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some of them of course eroded by the

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price gaps so turkey can attract

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foreign portfolios portfolio inflows and

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I guess out of 300 billion dollars half

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of it will be portfolio influence in

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five years time of course the second

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area that we can achieve and which

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turkey did before is a kind of fdis like

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m a case or kind of transactions turkey

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can do that again when we when the rule

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of law is there again re-established

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re-establish and when the Democracy of

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turkey or the Turkish approach to the

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Western World will be seen I guess

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turkey can attract uh FDI like that the

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third part of course is the Greenfield

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Investments turkey did actually did not

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attract such kind of Investments ever so

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we hope to do the attack again

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does your program include measures to be

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taken to attract Greenfield Investments

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as well I I I personally think this will

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need a longer term and we may attract

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those

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ftis the Greenfield fds in the second

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term in the first term I guess will be

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more liable to portfolio inflows and M A

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type of transactions

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um okay

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um

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what will the role of an upgraded and

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updated

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Customs Union B now you count on it yeah

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do you have plans prepared for the kind

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of Customs Union agreement you wish to

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see yeah uh it is in our plans and we

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believe that turkey is custom Universe

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custom Union has to be updated

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immediately because it's already 30

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years and when you look look back on 30

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years turkey did not attract a

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Greenfield investments in the meantime

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in Turkey of course I mean we have a lot

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of mistakes there stability of Turkish

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economy was not so long so I mean that's

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that's an effect but a custom Union

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should be upgraded because in the 30

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years I mean the world has changed China

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actually entered to the World Market

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with a very powerful uh a tool so I

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guess we need that custom units update

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and in order to achieve that I of course

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turkey will deliver the rule of love and

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turkey will will be a democracy in the

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meantime but that we need it you mean

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accountability is going to be important

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and I suppose we'll have to look back at

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some of the steps or measures that were

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taken

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how do you propose to I mean there are

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two or three critical institutions of

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course that I suppose are important for

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your policies what are you proposing to

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do with the central bank or what kind of

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Central Bank policies you will have

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second will be the state Statistical

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Institute I mean and and what would the

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third one be uh the banking I mean

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public Banks

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uh first of all I think the first thing

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we need is transparency in all those

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corporate in all those corporations

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because uh unfortunately turkey lost

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transparency many years ago in central

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bank balance sheet I mean

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the interventions is not announced in

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Turkish Statistical Institute

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basket distribution of goods is not

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announced is not announcing so we need

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to make all of them more transparent we

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have to appoint more components people

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there and of course then we have to turn

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back the economic policies to rational

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area so I guess the autonomy and

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Independence of those institutions are

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first and foremost in your mind this is

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what you yes after the appointments of

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course I mean of course

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naturally

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okay uh finally

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um

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if on Sunday the elections is finalized

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on the first round

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there will be a transition period And if

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we have to wait for another two weeks

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for us to see who won the presidential

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election because the parliament issue

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will have been settled

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do you fear things might deteriorate

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yeah it may so is there any way to

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prevent that yeah the way to prevent it

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is of course to immediately announce the

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cabinet

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and the people appoint the people who

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will be appointed to the bureaucratic

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positions and we have to give clear

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messages to the outstanding bureaucrats

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that turkey

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needs to be credible in the meantime

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needs to stay credible in the meantime

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and to continue what they do in in this

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10 day or 14 days period but of course I

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mean this is something we are talking

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within each other with all parties and

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this is something actually we are afraid

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of at the moment but we will give clear

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messages to those people well you but

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you have two constituencies because

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since you said we will need

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inflow of currency effects to the

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country therefore you'll have two

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constituencies to appeal to one is of

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course to domestic economic agencies and

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private actors and the other is of

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course International markets

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do they try to fill you out uh or do

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they have questions do you answer them

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are they listening to what you're saying

12:02

and do you think they will be more

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positively inclined towards turkey than

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they have been in the last four to five

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years especially after 6th of March when

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the volatility in the nation's Alliance

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has ended I mean we are getting a lot of

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demand from the foreign investors okay I

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personally made more than 20 25 meetings

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in the mean in the meantime in in a

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month's time so

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I am I feel there is a big demand for

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turkey I mean turkey will do a very

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substantial come back to the financial

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markets I'm pretty sure about that

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because I guess the EM portfolio is very

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much limited with South Africa and

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Brazil at the moment because Ukraine and

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Russia is out of the basket area as you

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may know so I think the EM basket also

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needs turkey and turkey needs a foreign

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influence so it will be a win uh when to

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win or for all parties well Dr Rota I

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thank you very much for accepting my

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invitation and I hope that we change the

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government and when we change the

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government you will also have a position

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of responsibility in the management of

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the economy good luck to you in advance

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and thank you very much again for being

13:24

with us thank you thank you

Interactive Summary

The video discusses the upcoming Turkish elections on May 14th, highlighting them as critical for the nation's 100-year Republican history. A central issue for voters is how to address the ongoing inflationary spiral. Dr. Kerim Rota, deputy chairman of "galaxies" responsible for economic policies, outlines the opposition's (Nation Alliance) plans. Key promises include returning inflation to single digits within two years and improving income distribution, which is currently at historically poor levels. Dr. Rota addresses concerns about currency and interest rates, emphasizing the need to close Turkey's "credibility gap" by appointing competent individuals to key institutions like the Central Bank and implementing a credible medium-term economic program. The opposition aims to attract significant foreign investment, including portfolio inflows, foreign direct investments (FDIs), and Greenfield investments, estimating a potential inflow of over 300 billion dollars over five years. An updated Customs Union with the EU is also considered crucial. Transparency, autonomy, and independence of institutions like the Central Bank, the State Statistical Institute, and public banks are prioritized. To mitigate potential deterioration during the transition period after the election, the immediate announcement of the cabinet and appointments is suggested. Dr. Rota expresses confidence in attracting foreign investors, noting strong demand and Turkey's potential to re-enter emerging market portfolios.

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