you know growing up i loved the rocky

movies it was so inspiring so the final

fight rocky will come out and rocky's

ready he's dominating dominating and

looks like he's going to win and then

drago would stop him and drago will

fight back and it's back and forth back

and forth back and forth and

you know drango looks like he's

dominating and when rocky looks like

he's gonna lose when all hope is lost

suddenly

at the last moment he gives a right hook

he knocks down that

big opponent and he wins the match

and watching the markets the last few

weeks it looked like a rocky fight

so if you guys recall on the 24th of

february i called that market bottom

right here after we had a very strong

bullish candle that was a false double

bottom pattern right and the market did

go up it went up for a while but then it

hit that very strong resistance level

and hit the 20 ema

and came back down again and at that

moment what happened the nasdaq closed

into a bear market remember how do you

define a bear market bear market is when

the price drops and closes 20 below the

high

so that's what happened to the nasdaq

and if you look at recent history

whenever the nasdaq went into a bear

market the snp always followed into a

bear market so i made another video last

week if you recall and say hey

is there a potential bear market that's

going to happen on the snp based on

history so at that moment it looked like

the bear knocked out the bull and the

bear was going to win but something

interesting happened on the 15th of

march the market started a strong rally

and the snp since then has been up 6.6

four strong bullish days in a row and

the nasdaq's up 10.8 percent four strong

bullish days in a row so question is

this

has the bear been knocked out is the

bull now gonna win have we seen a market

bottle let's take a closer look

[Music]

as always remember that nobody can

predict the short-term price movements

with absolute certainty because anything

can happen in the news

in geopolitics that throws everything

out of whack but from the price action

so far

i would guess i mean my hunch i would

guess that we have bottom that what we

saw actually on the 20

uh let's double check on the 24th of

february

was indeed the bottom of this correction

so why do i say that because i see a lot

of factors that

confirm this possible thesis and i'll

run through all these factors right now

so first and foremost let's take a look

at the daily candles on the s p

so you can see that we were

within this uh downtrend pattern with

this strong level of resistance

right so

we broke above that resistance level

right here after these

four

bullish days we broke above that

resistance and not only that that we

also have closed above the 50 moving

average

yeah now we have not yet closed above

the 200 moving average if we can close

above that 200 day

and that 200 day you can see still

remains sloping up

then that would be an extremely bullish

signal

now having said that bear in mind that

in the short term the market looks a bit

overbought a bit overextended right

after four straight days you expect a

bit of a pullback or a bit of a

consolidation before shooting higher so

what i would like to see is i like to

see the next few days the market starts

to pull back or you know kind of like

consolidates it's like a run after you

run really fast you want to kind of like

rest to build energy before running

further what i want to ensure

of is that during this consolidation

process it consolidates is that it has

to remain above

this resistance remember when price

breaks above resistance

resistance becomes

support right so we have a pullback we

definitely want to make sure that this

becomes a support level and as the

market's consolidating ideally

we want to see the 50 moving average

begin to slope up

upwards again right now the 50 is still

sloping down is broken above the 50.

once the 50 slopes upwards

it remains above this level then that's

a really really solid

bull market that uh we can write right

into right so like i said

i think with bottom but short term a bit

overbought i would like to see a bit of

a pullback bit of consolidation uh

before the market starts flying up now

this would be on a daily candles

what's interesting is if you look at the

weekly candles you see a pretty uh

bullish formation let's look at the

weekly candles here

so there we go

so last week we closed

the market closed with a bullish

engulfing pattern and as you guys know a

bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly

candles is a very powerful signal and

not only that but we did so

right after

taking out this previous low so this is

a classic false bottom pattern we've got

double bottom taking out stops pattern

right where again traders

uh place their stock losses below

previous lows so the market goes down

takes out those stock losses

forcing retail traders to panic and sell

and of course the market makers the big

institutions they buy up shares at a

cheap price they close back above that

swing low and that is usually the

prelude to the market moving a lot

higher some of you could be thinking but

it's just a bullish engulfing pattern

big deal it's just a you know double

bottom pattern big deal i agree so you

have to look at other factors to kind of

like solidify and give confluence to

that to that bottom so what's

interesting is that i looked at my

kind of like my oversold bear market and

correction indicator which i actually

introduced back in march 2020. if you

guys have been following my videos uh as

you guys know i called the near bottom

during the kobe crash using this

indicator so let's take a look at this

indicator once again

so on this indicator

uh i'm using three things williams r 52

williams r13 and the normalized atr

so for bear markets i'm looking at the

williams 52 usually when the williams 52

goes below the minus 80 level that's the

end of the bear market there and of the

bear market

and of the bear market all right

now those are for bear markets but for

corrections currently we are in the

correction we are not in a bear market

at least not yet we had a correction so

for corrections we look at the

uh percentage are

williams r13 close

now for a bottom to happen there must be

two things number one

you need this williams r to go below

minus 80.

plus you need the normalized atr

to go above 80 they must both happen at

the same time to have

a very very powerful

signal right

so you can see over here

uh every time it goes below minus 80

below minus 80 that is a potential

bottoming signal

but again it's only powerful if this

normalized atr goes above 80. so you can

see he went above 80 over there went

above 80 over there so it did not really

go above 80

recently right but as of last week

when we had that bullish engulfing

pattern which i talked about guess what

that normalized atr went above 80.

so we've got that above 80 we have got

the williams r13 going below minus 80.

so that gives additional evidence that

this could be the bottom of the

correction so again it's kind of like

being a lawyer you're fighting a case

right so you want to kind of like

convict that criminal for example and

you you need evidence to convict that

criminal right so you want more and more

evidence so the more evidence you have

the more

likely you can convict that criminal so

let's take a look at even more evidence

of a possible bottom a market can only

bottom if there are no more sellers left

think about it if there are no more

sellers left it can't go lower so when

are there no more sellers left when the

last seller

has sold this is what happens when all

the week holders all the retail

investors who are highly leveraged or

they panic and they sold

that's when a bottom sets in and that

happens at a point of maximum pessimism

and that's why the old saying you've got

to be greedy when people are fearful

when people hit extreme fear that's when

the weak hands the paper hands sell

that's when the market bottoms so how do

you know when it's maximum fear well

there's an indicator called the fear and

greed indicator that you can look at

and you can see that when it hits below

20 on this indicator you are at extreme

fear

and what happened was we actually hit 13

right as the market bottom four days ago

if you scroll down you can see

when

the the fear indicator has hit extreme

fear over the last couple of years so

again we just hit extreme fear

four days ago right we were down to

minus minus 13 and it hit it a couple of

times in the last four years

and if you look at the s p chart they're

more or less coincided with bottoms in

the markets correction let's let's take

a quick look so you can see that every

time the fear and greed index hit

extreme fear was a really great time to

add shares right so again it happened

four days ago it coincided with this

current market bottom right happened

here in mid 2021 that was a nice time to

get in and of course the cobit crash

it went to really extreme fear

uh all the way down there to like five

and that was really the bottom of that

copic crash and again over here it hit

again below -20 and that was also a

great time to get into the market so

again extreme fear extreme pessimism

the retail public is all selling

everyone is selling

that's when the market tends to bottom

but

question is what would make the market

go up from here you see the market can

only go up if there's cash to buy stock

if there's no cash to buy stock it can't

go up so cash on the sidelines

represents ammunition that's needed to

fire the rocket

so how much ammo how much cash is on the

sidelines right now let's take a look at

the next chart

so this chart shows you

the amount of cash being held by

institutional investors or hedge funds

so this chart shows you the percentage

of cash

being held by

fund managers this is the fms fund

manager survey

and what happens is when a fund manager

has a lot of cash

uh in their fund what can they do the

cash they can use it to buy stock so the

more cash they have the more ammunition

they have to buy stock and drive the

market higher so every time their cash

level

goes above 5.5 percent that tells you

that the market has a lot of ammunition

to rally up so if you take a look at

again the last 20 years you can see

these were the instances where the cash

balance

uh hit way above 5.5 percent in fact

close to six percent it happened right

here march 2022

it happened over here and you can see

that it coincides again with

the market rallying from a bottom so

over here april

uh 2000

that was there

october 2016

that was here

june 12

that was

here

uh december 08 that was right here

and march 2003 that was right here

so another evidence to convict

this criminal i've been reading some

comments on my channel and people are

saying but adam you know rising interest

rates isn't that bearish for the markets

they just raised interest rates by a

quarter percent and if you read the

recent fed

uh statement they are going to raise

interest rates six more times this year

and they're going to raise the interest

rates all the way up the plan is to hit

1.75

on the short-term interest rates by the

end of this year and to hit 2

interest rate

by the start of 2023 so we've got one

two three four five six

six more rate hikes this year plus one

more rate hike in january next year so

people are saying but isn't that no good

for the markets

no i've said this before if you look at

history

whenever the fed raises interest rates

is extremely bullish

for the market let's take a look at the

charts so on this chart you can see that

this blue line represents the federal

funds rate or the short-term interest

rates

uh that's

set by the federal reserve and you can

see that this is over the last 30 years

it's been on a downtrend actually and

right now we are right here

okay so again they plan to raise

interest rates

seven times

to two percent next year now seems like

a lot but if you look again at history

it's it's nothing right because if they

raise it from here

uh to 0.5 percent let me just zoom in

over here right 2.5 to 1 to 1.5 percent

to 2

that's not even

above the previous high of the fed funds

rate back in 2019 right so

it's still extremely low interest rates

now

if you were to

overlay the fed funds rate with the s p

500 let me show you what you get so i'm

going to add in the

s p 500

and let's

see how

the s p

reacts historically all right so i'm

going to go back to history

and let's just go back to recent history

of the last 20 years shall we right just

the last 20 years okay so again over

here you can see the fed raised interest

rates

what happened to the market the market

went up s p went up

fed raised interest rates

market went up

same thing over here fed raise interest

rates

market goes up

okay and again you can scroll back for

the last 20 30 40 years so again i don't

know why people are freaking out that

the fed's raising interest rates like

it's a bad thing it's not a bad thing

it's a good thing because when they

raise interest rates

it's a sign that the economy is strong

and that means that good companies that

are profitable that are cash generating

will push the markets a lot higher but

it is bad for unprofitable stocks so you

got to get out of stocks that are not

making profits that are speculative that

are hype stocks those you gotta get out

and only be into solid companies that

have low debt

and high levels of cash

with cash flow generating abilities in

the long run now some people will be

asking so adam are you gonna start

buying stocks now no

i've already been buying stocks for the

last two to three weeks so those of you

who are subscribed to the

uip the ultimate investors playbook you

get my live buy alerts and i've been

buying very consistently for the last

two weeks because again get greedy when

others are fearful and you can see again

this on my channel you can see from the

8th of march in fact even before that i

was buying stocks consistently right so

i bought mastercard i bought microsoft i

bought amazon

and then i bought more yum china over

here

then on the

18th of

march uh let's see i bought soxx which

is the

semiconductor etf

then i bought more google on that day as

well on the 15th of march

and um

i bought more disney

on the

15 as well i bought

uh nike

and more disney

and i bought more alibaba i bought more

10 cent

on the 16th of march and so and so forth

right and most recently let's see i

bought gxc which is the chinese index

etf

um i bought more palantir i bought even

more chinese

etfs as well so i've been buying very

very aggressively for the last two weeks

because again whenever there's fear in

the markets whenever people are

panicking that's when i want to be a

buyer so once the market rallies i make

uh considerable considerable profits for

my portfolio okay finally let's talk

about the china markets

something has happened to

completely change the game for china

stock so if you watched my video last

week i said that you know chinese

companies are

very undervalued and the chinese

companies that i'm holding are great

companies and the only thing holding

them back the only thing that's holding

them back

are some geopolitical and macro concerns

and what what were these concerns

concern one is that the u.s listed china

stocks could get delisted concern number

two the ccp is out to destroy or

nationalize the public companies and to

screw up their own stock market concern

number three the slowing growth in the

chinese economy caused by the property

slum rising u.s rates and of course the

russian invasion and concern number four

is

potential u.s sanctions against china

for supporting russia and i said hey

these are all the concerns that's

holding chinese stocks down without

these concerns chinese stocks will fly

and guess what happened in one major

statement the chinese government said

enough is enough

our market is low enough

we gotta stabilize it right so in one

statement

they said four things number one they

announced that they're going to reopen

all the covet closed factories to

stabilize the economy number two the

chinese government pledged to keep

capital markets stable so they say we

pledge to support our stock market

number three devout support for u.s

listed china stock adrs and they vote to

support chinese stocks listing overseas

they promised to handle property

developer risk to contain the

fallout from the property islam and

finally they said don't worry

our regulation against alibaba and

tencent is soon coming to an end and for

the last point about the u.s sanctions

china did say that yeah you know

russia's our friend you know we won't

condemn them but

we do not want to be sanctioned by the

u.s so we're not gonna get you know

involved with helping russia and the

moment this news was released

no more concerns basically and then

hallelujah the chinese market had its

biggest gain in like i don't know 15 20

years

so fundamentally the game has shifted

and

i see a bottom

in the chinese markets now if you take a

look at the charts

this is the hang seng index and

so far the market from the previous peak

is down 45

if you look at previous bear markets and

corrections

the average

drawdown is about 42 so we are already

more than the average drawdown in the

markets now if you take a look at this

table over here you can see all the

previous bear markets for the hansen

index that happened in 1990 92

92 again 94 97

2007 and of course this current uh bear

market and you can see in the previous

bear markets and corrections you had 25

drawdowns

uh 45 drawdown 60 drawdown 67 drawdowns

but the average

42

of all the drawdowns so currently we are

at

uh in fact more than the average

and we closed last week

with a very powerful bullish

pin bar at a very strong historical

level of support

so

high chance that we kind of like have

bought them for the chinese markets and

like i said

you know when retail investors are

panicking and selling

that's usually the sign of a bottom but

when professionals

are panicking and downgrading a whole

market

that's usually the bottom

and if you read this um

research report by jp morgan they

announced this on the 14th of march and

they said that china stocks a lot of

them are uninvestable they are no longer

they are no longer attractive they said

alibaba is going to go down to 65

and you know for the next six to 12

months don't touch china stock so when a

big bank when you know analysts

downgrade

something and they are panicking that's

usually the sign that it's time to buy

right and two days later the market had

this rally and of course in the u.s jim

cramer said the same thing right on the

14th of march he told his investing club

don't buy stocks in russia or china

which i agree i'm not going to touch

russian stocks i think it's over it's

never going to come back

but he said china as well and usually

when

you know big names capitulate that's the

sign of a bottom right so i have already

been adding more to my china positions

but even more to my us positions and

let's see how it goes like i said

disclaimer

no one can predict the future for

certain because anything can happen in

the markets and that's why it's very

important to

follow a few principles if you're

investing only invest with money

you don't need to use for at least the

next three years number one number two

never borrow to invest only invest with

cash that you have and number three only

buy high quality companies that have low

debt high cash and extremely profitable

and uh you will do really really well

and diversify across uh several sectors

right so hope this has been useful and

let's see if this

uh rarely continues like i said short

term we're a bit over extended after

shooting up for four straight days we

should expect a bit of a pullback a bit

of a consolidation so there is still

chance for investors to start building

their positions never have the formal

the fear of missing out don't chase when

it's high wait for the market uh the

price to retrace to a reasonable level

alright so i'll see you guys in the next

video take care may the markets be with

you if you want to catch my latest

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markets be with you