Prepare for the Coming Stock Correction Part 2
711 segments
all right so in the first part of this
video we said that although we are in
the second year of the boom market and
there's over 90% probability that the
market will end higher this year the
market cannot go up in a straight line
the market has been relentlessly going
up almost in a straight line for the
last 3 to four months so there will be
Corrections along the way that we need
to be psychologically prepared for and
when those Corrections happen no one
knows exactly when it's going to happen
like I said we could guess that it's
somewhere in mid mid-February to the end
of March going to get a correction
another one is September to October but
when these Corrections come and the
market begins to pull back down to their
moving averages these are the times that
we can take opportunity in the market
again the whole point is not to be
afraid of these corrections but to
embrace these Corrections and take
advantage of these corrections to add
more and more shares to high quality
businesses so what are the stocks I'm
going to focus on what are the sectors
I'm going to focus on this year that I
think could outperform the market okay
well the first thing to mention is that
I believe that the best stocks to buy
are the ones that you already own so my
priority is to always add more shares of
my existing stocks in my portfolio
because these are already great
companies and then after that I would
then add shares of new companies if I
find new companies that are even better
than the companies that I already own
okay so having said that let's jump into
this video we'll talk about which which
sectors do I think are going to
outperform the market this year and what
are the most compelling stocks that I'm
holding and I'm adding to now I
originally presented these slides during
my Market Outlook event 2024 back on the
20th of January as well as the following
week on my online Market Outlook event
which I think some of you did attend um
so uh what I presented some of the stock
some of the sectors have really run up
quite a bit since I presented it and and
you may find oh it's too late right now
they've already gone up but like I said
don't worry it doesn't go up in a
straight line there will be Corrections
along the way along this year where I
think that there'll be a chance to add
shares of these companies as well so
having said that let's jump in so last
year 2023 the best performing sectors
were technology communication services
and consumer discretionary and the three
or the four worst performing sectors
were healthare energy consumer
defensives and utilities so how about
this year what sectors would likely
outperform this year well I think these
are the sectors that number one will
benefit from falling interest rates now
so far the FED has not yet cut rates but
they should be cutting uh by the mid of
this year the long interest rates the
10e treasury yield has come down from 5%
uh but it did bounce back up a bit now
to above about 4.15% but I think the
long-term uh treasury yield will kind of
like consolidate and move lower towards
the end of the year so which sectors
will benefit from that that's number one
number two sectors that will benefit
from the AI secular growth Trend sorry a
bit of a typo here should be secular
growth Trend and number three I think
sectors that underperformed last
year because they went through an
earnings recession and this year their
earnings are beginning to recover I
think that these sectors could rebound
and outperform this year so what sectors
am I talking about specifically four
sectors number one the technology sector
number two the financial sector number
three Healthcare and number four
Industrials I think these are the four
sectors that could outperform the market
this year in addition to these four
sectors I'm also bullish on the small
caps which are the small companies which
I don't usually buy individually but I
buy them to an ETF like the iwm ETF and
for me personally I bought the vbk ETF
which is the small cap growth ETF now
again I shared this initially on the
20th of January during my Market Outlook
event the four sectors technology
Healthcare Industrials and financials
they have performed okay they have
performed positively so far this year
and yeah technology is outperforming
Healthcare is outperforming uh
Industrial and financials slightly
outperforming slightly okay so so far so
good let's see what happens throughout
the rest of the year uh now specifically
let's take a look at why these sectors
so number one technology I believe
technology will not just outperform this
year you'll outperform for uh the near
future because again we are in this six
wve Innovation super cycle that is
driven by Ai and automation so
technology is definitely a sector that I
I won't be fully allocated in I wanton
be overweight on this sector at the same
time when interest rates fall it will
lead to further PE expansion of
technology
stocks specifically which technology
stocks uh am I really really focused on
well three areas of course we want to be
uh focused on the ones that will benefit
the most from the AI Revolution so first
will be cloud computing almost every
business on the planet will have to use
use Cloud Computing Services because
they want to be online they need to get
online so Amazon Microsoft and Google in
my opinion is a must have in every
portfolio combined they make up 65%
market share of the cloud computing
market and it's a recurring business
it's a business that is very very
sticky uh the second would be companies
that provide the semiconductors required
for AI and automation we call this AI
Exel accelerator semiconductor companies
and Nvidia is the market leader with 90%
market share and AMD is the second in
place with a 4% market
share now some people say wow how about
AMD because AMD looks like could catch
up to Nvidia and grow its market share
well that's possible but the funny thing
is if you look at both
um EMD is not cheaper than Nvidia in
fact it could still be slightly more
expensive than Nvidia and between the
two rather uh stay invested with the
market leader and AI semiconductor chips
for the next 10 years will grow
estimated with an annual return of about
24% the third area would be an AI
software two types of AI software number
one would be cyber security which is
projected to 7x over the next 10 years
so to be invested in cyber security you
could look at the ETFs like one of the
top ETFs is the IH K or individual
companies of which my two favorites are
foret ftnt and Palo AO PW So currently I
am invested in foret I have been buying
foret for quite a while right now and
it's run up quite a bit since it
announced great earnings uh last week uh
Palo Alo I'm not yet invested in it
because it's been too expensive I've
been waiting for it to drop drop it's
not dropped yet but who knows maybe in
March and September if it drops I will
add some poo Alto
next we enterprise software using AI of
which there are two one is paler and UI
path now UI path is a bit more
speculative because it's not really
profitable yet uh and a bit expensive so
my preference would be paler which you
guys know I made a video on it last year
I'm very bullish on palen here I've been
holding it for quite a number of months
right now and again they just released
blowout earnings and the stock you know
went up 40% uh in 4 days so yeah some of
you may say is it too late to buy palen
here yes I think so at this price but
you never know in March September if it
retraces back down again there could be
a chance to add more shares to Palance
here now I'm also looking at Financial
stocks as well as Healthcare stocks to
outperform this year now so far
Healthcare has been outperforming which
is great financial slightly okay so
again why these two sectors because
these two sectors were unloved last year
they were out of rotation so again we
call it sector rotation money flows out
of the sectors they UNL and everything
falls and usually after um uh sector
goes out of rotation eventually it will
get back in rotation where money flows
back into the sectors and they start to
outperform it's kind of like a musical
chest you know every sector takes turn
to outperform and underperform so since
they underperformed last year I think
they could uh outperform this year if
their earnings
recover so the reason why they
underperformed last year was because
these two SE sectors financials and
Healthcare in 2023 they had negative
earnings growth they went through an
earnings recession where financials uh
their earnings uh dropped 2.6% year on
year and Healthcare might got 20%
earnings contraction year on- year now
this year 2024 financials are expected
to grow at 6% year on year uh not really
really exciting because financials you
have to understand they don't really
grow double digits so if financials grow
single digits is pretty good now this is
talking about the entire financial
sector of which a lot of it is made of
banks which I avoid because Banks tend
to be very cyclical with low growth so I
tend to go for specific Financial
companies that have very high growth
like uh payment technology companies
like Visa Mastercard no not not PayPal
all right um as well as ratings agencies
like S&P Global moodies these are the
ones uh they have very high growth rates
um but the banks tend to pull down the
growth rates right um next Healthcare so
Healthcare is projected to grow at 177%
this year and that's why last year I
bought a lot of healthc care stocks and
this year a lot of them are now
rebounding quite a bit like I bought met
pace which I'll talk about more later on
I bought thermal Fisher I bought Viva
systems and I bought a lot of United
Health and El health and so far they
rebounded significantly already in the
first uh month of the year but you know
what they could still go a lot higher
and they could retrace for more shares
to be added next I think industrial
stocks could also do well as pmis
rebound from their bottom so what are
pmis purchasing managers index which
measures the health of the country's
manufacturing or Services sector so over
here on this chart you can see this a
long-term chart that shows you the
manufacturing uh PMI index in red and
the Services index or non-manufacturing
index in blue and you can see it's
pretty much in a long-term range where
it expends contracts expends contracts
expense contracts now uh last year you
can see that it contracted all the way
down to here so this this is the
manufacturing PMI that went all the way
down to here and you can see
historically this is kind of like the
bottom of the
range and so when it starts to to bounce
up from the bottom you know that uh
manufacturing activity is beginning to
rebound and when that happens industrial
stocks will tend to uh rebound as well
so uh so far the latest reading for the
manufacturing PMI came in at 53 and a
half sorry my bad 49 49 uh which is
somewhere around there so yep it has
been rebounding back and for the
services PMI just came in uh after it
hit again this um kind of like bottom in
the range it's now bounced up to be
about 50 53 and a half so I think that
with this happening Industrials could
outperform as well now personally I
don't really buy industrial stocks
because industrial stocks tend to be
generally in the long run low growth
they don't outperform the S&P 500 and
they tend to be pretty cyclical so there
are only a few industrial stocks I I
would buy that have got good growth one
of them is Corporation and another one
is lockit Martin which are already sold
but generally again industrial companies
like Caterpillar hone well they tend to
be low growth and cyclical so if I think
Industrials are going to rebound this
year and they actually starting to
rebound I won't really invest in them
but I'll just buy the ETF for a
short-term trade and the ETF you could
look
at uh to get exposure to Industrials is
basically the xli ETF so if you take a
quick look at the uh Industrials ETF xli
you can see that it already has broken
out for the year it was making a high
last year and then it pulled back and
then it made uh the same high pulled
back and so this is kind of like what we
call a base consolidation pattern and it
broke out of that pattern and now it's
beginning to run up so again it should
run up for the rest of the year and uh
if it's any pullback pullback to this
area of previous resistance and support
that could be a buyable area if it pulls
back to the area for a continuation of
that trend for the rest of the year the
next beneficiary of falling interest
rates would be small caps as well as
reads by the way but I'll leave that to
a separate topic because I can talk
about reads in the entire video by
itself but small caps so small caps are
basically small companies now
historically small caps used to
outperform large caps because small caps
are smaller they've got more growth po
potential than large caps that are
already very big but in recent years you
see that small caps no longer outperform
large caps large caps outperform small
caps but now they' have outperformed to
such a large extent that I think that
small
caps there's a high chance it would
rebound back to close the gap with large
caps now if you take a look at this
chart you notice something interesting
preco uh large caps which are represent
by the SNP 500 ETF the
spy and the one in Orange would be the
iwm which is the small cap ETF you can
see they pretty much are in sync right
they're pretty much in sync but most of
the time again large caps would slightly
outperform small caps now covid changed
everything you can see what happened
during covid when covid hit they both
went down but small caps went down more
than than large caps and during the
rebound large caps rebounded a lot
faster than small caps and this Gap has
gotten wider ever since then now what's
the reason the reason is very simple Co
really screwed up small companies so for
small companies because they are small
they don't have as much cash they've got
more debt they are not as resilient as
big companies with lots of resources so
small caps really got uh whacked during
covid and then in 2022 when the FED
raised interest rates at the fastest
rate in history small cap suffered the
most because against small caps they
have a lot of debt and when interest
rates rise they have to pay a lot more
interest on the debt their profits
collapse and many small caps they don't
have a lot of cash so they have to keep
raising cash through debt or by uh
issuing shares and with high interest
rates it's hard to do that and that's
why they have been underperforming and
very much going nowhere in the last year
or so whereas big companies like like
meta Amazon Nvidia High interest rates
are actually good for them because these
big companies they're immune to high
interest rates they earn more interest
income because of the large cash on
their balance sheet and they have got
hardly any debt so you see this big gap
right here but once interest rates fall
we should see this Gap narrow I don't
expect large caps to come down as much
as I expect small caps to at least
rebound to at least you know close the
gap with large caps now I don't buy
specific small companies because I think
they're too risky for me to buy I'm a
very very conservative person but I'll
buy the ETF for more of a short to
medium-term trade while small caps catch
up now I've already bought it I already
bought the small cap ETF there few of
them the one I bought is the vbk which
is the small cap growth ETF so I started
buying it uh I think about a month or
two months ago yeah about there I think
about a month ago so so far it has
started uh rebounding and I think that
there's a lot more room for it to run
let's take a look at the charts so this
is the vbk and I'm looking at the weekly
candles and you can see it's pretty much
been in this range over here uh for the
last uh year or so right it went up went
down went up went down went up down
right stuck in this range and you can
see that recently kind of like started
to break out of this range all right it
broke out of this range and then
retraced and now it looks like it could
be setting up to begin to move higher
again uh when rates start to fall that's
when you see this will really begin to
run up again there's no guarantee but I
think there's a high chance it will run
up now if you zoom down to the uh daily
candles you can see a clearer view of
the daily candles that it has started to
run uh but it's not that far yet from
the moving average right so we've got
that wave up we've got a wave down and
now it's beginning to uh wave up over
here so there the vbk now at the start
of every year during my Market Outlook
event I will share what I think are the
highest quality stocks with the most
compelling value at the time so this was
presented again in uh on the 20th of
January which I thought they still had
very good value some of them still have
very good value but some of them have
run up quite a bit so they may not they
may no longer be that cheap but again
you never know we could get the
correction in March or or September to
give them back that attractive value but
these were the stocks I presented and
I'll run through them one by one to show
you what I think is the latest intrinsic
value and uh the levels where I think I
would want to add more shares myself so
these are the eight stocks that I think
um would do well this year and for years
to come Amazon that's always my number
one favorite and it's it's currently the
biggest position in my portfolio number
two will be Google alphabet number three
meta platforms again one of the biggest
positions in my portfolio uh foret which
is cyber security company so all these
are within the technology sector I
talked about Healthcare Healthcare
United
Health uh Viva systems and met pay which
I just bought recently in fact bought
met P about a couple of weeks ago and
for financials basically it's just S&P
Global so let's begin with Amazon so
ever since I presented it back on the
20th of January which was uh somewhere
around here you can see that it's run up
quite a bit especially this Gap up after
solid earnings but it is still
undervalued so my intrinsic value for
Amazon currently is
$182 so 174 it's slightly below
valuation but like I said I don't add
shares just because it's undervalued I
add only when it retraces to a level of
support and on The Daily candles I would
like to see it retrace to at least the
50 moving average minimum so this is the
50 moving average over here so right now
you can see the wave up the wave down a
wave up wave down and wave up so I never
chase it once it runs right so I like to
let it wave up and then eventually it's
going to wave back down to at least that
50 moving average before I would add it
back again now currently the 50 moving
average would be somewhere around 157
but bear in mind that as the price moves
the moving averages will move as well
and that's why I
update my my support levels every month
for my subscribers of the ultimate
investors Playbook and at the same time
the intrinsic value also changes uh
every time the company begins to report
uh new results so that's something that
I update for my subscribers as well now
if you've taken my whale investor course
you've learned all these skills you can
uh update your support levels every
month and you can recalculate your
intrinsic values as as well so that's
Amazon next would be alphabet which is
uh also known as
Google so alphabet actually they
announced pretty good results everything
was great except they missed on just one
little item and the market freaked out
and we had that drop over here right
boom went down by the way what's the
intrinsic value of Google intrinsic
value is
172 yep so this is still very very
undervalued
but again I like to buy after a wave
down and this was a perfect buying
opportunity right here so again I
presented this stock on the 20th of
January which was
somewhere
uh somewhere over there right and then
it went up after that and then earnings
came and it kind of like GED down to the
support level right so that's the first
support level and then since it's it's
run up over there so very undervalued by
but again uh would I add at this point
of time after it's waved up no I'll wait
for it to again retrace back down nearer
this 50 moving average at least uh at
about 140 yeah for now but again it will
change as as time goes by support levels
will go up over time next will be meta
platforms which is I think one of the
best performing stocks in the last 12 24
months So Meta intrinsic value is
$480 right right now is at 468 so it is
uh pretty much at fair price and again I
I don't like to buy something at fair
price I like to buy something at a
discount so we have got a margin of
safety and you can see that it's run up
uh quite far above the moving averages
right very far above the 50 moving
average
so yeah I hold matter and if you do
would I sell no I wouldn't sell because
it is still fairly priced I remember I
only sell something if it's gross ly
overpriced like if meta went up to
$11,000 I'll start selling right because
$11,000 would be like 100% above
intrinsic value that's when I'll start
to think okay it's a bit crazy I'll get
out but right now it's it's it's not
overprice okay so I I wouldn't sell okay
but neither would I buy because
technically it is overextended right
wave up wave down wave up wave down wave
up extended right I like it to kind of
like retrace back again at at least near
to the 50 moving average at about 3 390
then then I'll add more meta shares now
some of you may be thinking are you sure
can it drop all the way to 390 it's so
far away you never know okay those of
you who have been in a markets for the
last 10 20 30 years know that once the
sentiment shifts oo the market can
suddenly drop 5 10 15% and high beta
stocks could drop
20% 30% in a heartbeat
okay so when that happens you got to be
psychologically prepared don't fre oh my
God I'm going to die that's an
opportunity to add more shares
right so one thing I learned my career
is you know never chase the girl you
know once the girl runs let her run wait
that patiently she'll run back to you
eventually now if she doesn't there are
many other girls out there who are just
as attractive or beautiful okay inside
next we have got cyber security company
foret so foret just shared it in the
Market Outlook on the 20th of January
which was somewhere there when it was
just below the 200 day moving average uh
and it was at the support level so that
was the point where many of my students
yeah the moment they heard it uh they
did their research and they started
adding at $62 and of course students in
my community we bought you know much
lower around this area here last year so
for for9 the intrinsic value is $73 and
at $70 it is still undervalued
uh but right now you can see wave up
wave down wave up wave down wave up wave
down wave up after earnings it's kind of
like consolidating right here so again
on the daily candles I would personally
add more only if it retraces uh to the
closest level of support and in this
case I would say the closest level would
be about
$63 and again it may not go there it may
run up again so in that case I'll then
raise the support levels over time and
the in pH value will go up as well over
time uh next we have got SNP Global sbgi
which is the only Financial
stock uh in this particular uh watch
list so I've been holding spgi for quite
a number of years uh right now this
stock is overvalued you can see the
intrinsic value is
$46 all right currently it's about 437
so it is overvalued and again uh I would
say the level to addir is only when it
retraces down to at least
$43 which is where uh was a previous uh
resistance uh previous resistance
becomes support and that would be just
below the 406 intrinsic
value next we go on to the Health Care
stocks the first of which is Viva
systems I've also been holding this for
quite a number of years and viva's
intrinsic value
is
$261 so this is still pretty undervalued
so like I said in this market where
there are many stocks that are
overpriced there are still some quality
companies that are still reasonably
priced so this is still
undervalued um let just go down to the
Daily candles over here yep uh but you
can see again it's after wave up pattern
right so wave up wave down wave up wave
down wave up okay so uh again my level
to add would be about
196 even though it's undervalued but we
want to always add on a retracement to a
level of support at this point of
time next United
Health the other Healthcare Company
intrinsic value 548 so this one is
undervalued and well close enough to the
second level of support so I would say
for investors who are building a new
position right this would be a level
that would be attractive to add shares
for United Health and finally another
Healthcare stock met pce so this one
when I first introduced it to um the
community and on the Outlook it was
right here you can see wave up wave down
right at this 50 moving average support
that was on the 20th of January
beautiful and I said I'm adding more
than myself so you can see the intrinsic
value is 336 so at that point very
undervalued well not very quite
undervalue and retrace with support
level that was a great place to add now
since then of course it has waved up so
right now it is still slightly below the
intrinsic value but I wouldn't add more
there so I want to add more myself
because I've not bought enough yet so
I'm waiting for the next uh wave down
pattern at least to the 50 moving
average at about 300 to add more myself
so that we are those are the eight uh
high quality stocks that I think are
still reasonably priced but doesn't mean
that now it's a level to add yet the S&P
500 continues to be on this very strong
wave up pattern breaking the 5,000 Mark
yesterday it's times like that that I
wouldn't Chase it it could go higher but
I would wait patiently for that
correction to appear in the later part
of the Year hope you enjoyed it and may
the markets be with you if you want to
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is Adam cou and may the markets be with
you
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video provides a 2024 market outlook, emphasizing that while the market has seen strong upward momentum, investors should anticipate corrections rather than fearing them. The speaker suggests using these pullbacks as opportunities to accumulate shares in high-quality businesses. Key sectors highlighted for potential outperformance include technology, financials, healthcare, and industrials, along with a focus on small-cap stocks. The speaker outlines a strategy of prioritizing existing portfolio holdings while actively monitoring specific companies and waiting for technical support levels before adding new positions.
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