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The Most Hated Bull Market in History. What's Next?

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The Most Hated Bull Market in History. What's Next?

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579 segments

0:00

So currently the bull market is in its

0:03

seventh month wow time really flies ever

0:05

since the bear Market ended last year in

0:07

October 2022 so ever since then the S P

0:11

500 is up over 19 from the lows and up 8

0:17

year to date so I got a question for you

0:19

are you enjoying this bull market well

0:22

if you are type yes into the comment

0:24

section well if you have been following

0:26

my lessons about only holding

0:28

fundamentally great companies and adding

0:30

more shares when they were very

0:32

undervalued in the last couple of months

0:34

you should be seeing very nice gains in

0:36

your portfolio over the last seven

0:38

months and you should have recovered the

0:40

majority of the drawdowns that your

0:42

portfolio may have experienced during

0:43

the bear Market of 2022 and that's why

0:46

it's really important to stick to your

0:48

investment plan don't panic during bear

0:50

markets whole great companies and keep

0:53

adding shares when they're undervalued

0:54

and very quickly you can see your

0:56

portfolio rebound and go to new highs

0:59

and as most of you know my portfolios

1:01

went to a drawdown as well last year yep

1:04

it was not immune to draw downs but

1:05

again by sticking to my investment plan

1:07

and holding only the top one percent of

1:09

companies in the world and adding shares

1:11

when they were undervalued last year I

1:13

managed to recover the majority of the

1:16

drawdowns so for example in my first

1:19

account over here you can see uh let me

1:22

just log into my account management

1:27

so you can see here today it's up 21

1:30

uh way above the S P 500 which is up

1:33

eight percent way outperforming S P 500

1:36

over a one-year period 12 months ago uh

1:39

you can see it's up 21.62 percent

1:43

in my other portfolio

1:45

which is uh this but particular

1:47

portfolio uh it's pretty much the same

1:50

if I log into my account

2:00

you can see that it's a year to date up

2:03

23.74 and from one year ago it's up 18

2:08

now I believe that most of you who have

2:11

been following my investment principles

2:12

and in my community should also be

2:15

seeing double digit returns in your

2:17

portfolio as well and if you have to

2:19

leave your comments in the comment

2:21

section would love to read about how you

2:23

guys are doing as well but it may

2:25

surprise you to know that the majority

2:28

of people out there both retail

2:30

investors and institutional investors

2:32

really hate this bull market in fact

2:34

it's been said that now this bull market

2:37

is the most hated bull market in history

2:39

just do a Google search or bot search

2:42

and can see many of these headlines

2:44

right on Seeking Alpha the most hated

2:46

rally I've ever seen this was in

2:49

February 2023

2:51

and more recently on 18 April uh on the

2:55

street which is a new site Financial new

2:58

site stocks the most heated rally yet so

3:00

seems a lot of people hate this rally

3:03

you can tell especially on Twitter

3:05

because I'm on Twitter pretty often and

3:06

I would say that easily you know 8 out

3:09

of 10 tweets are very very hateful of

3:12

the market rallies like what the hell is

3:13

going on how can the market go up is

3:15

being manipulated the Market's rigged

3:16

this is total rubbish right and every

3:19

time I read that I always laugh because

3:21

you know I've been in the markets now

3:23

for over 31 years and I've been through

3:25

countless Bear markers countless crashes

3:29

and countless new bull markets and every

3:31

time is the end of a bear market and

3:34

it's the start of a bull market you

3:36

always get the same people hating it

3:38

saying that oh it's Rick is manipulated

3:40

and they don't believe it they're in

3:42

denial and by the time they believe it

3:44

the market is really a new all-time

3:47

highs and it's too late to buy in it

3:49

happens every bear to Blue Market cycle

3:52

always for the last 31 years I've seen

3:54

it for myself

3:55

so again why a lot of people hating this

3:58

rally this year again very simple

4:00

because number one a lot of retail

4:02

investors they so in panic last year and

4:06

they never got a chance to buy back in

4:08

and they were hoping it's going to go

4:10

lower but it didn't it kept going up

4:12

it's like [ __ ] I can't buy it back now

4:14

it's too high come on come down come and

4:15

you're hoping it's going to come down

4:16

but it never comes like it's going out

4:18

but it happens all the time you can see

4:20

for example from these brokerage reports

4:22

uh this is a report from the clients of

4:25

TD Ameritrade which is a broker but see

4:28

thing with with all Brokers you can see

4:30

that

4:31

uh this green line shows you the net

4:34

buying or the net selling of retail

4:37

investors and you can see that retail

4:38

investors they when net sellers

4:42

um in March 2020 that was the low of the

4:46

Kobe crash and once they dumped their

4:48

shares the market goes up right same

4:50

thing happened last year retail

4:52

investors so in panic in December 2022

4:56

two months after the bear Market ended

4:58

it's so in panic and then the market is

5:01

rallied up 19 from there and they are

5:04

left out of the market and of course

5:06

they're feeling very very hateful even

5:08

worse some smart alec retail Traders

5:10

they shorted the market and they've been

5:12

shorting the market for the last seven

5:13

months and getting their face ripped off

5:16

that's why I keep telling you guys that

5:18

the main purpose of the stock market is

5:20

to make fools of as many people as

5:22

possible when everyone thinks the market

5:24

is going to crash gonna crash it keeps

5:25

going up Market goes opposite of what

5:27

everyone thinks so never listen to the

5:30

predictions of people never listen to

5:32

all these economic data and news it's

5:34

all for entertainment purposes just

5:36

stick to holding great companies because

5:38

great companies always will go up and

5:41

focus on the trend of the market which I

5:43

keep saying focus on the trend of the

5:44

market right

5:46

take a look at these charts these are

5:47

from a fun Strat uh research and you can

5:51

see for example the aaii which is the

5:54

American Association of investors

5:57

something like that the survey shows

5:59

that the majority of people are still

6:02

very very bearish sentiment is extremely

6:06

bearish now even compared to one year

6:09

ago so as the market keeps going up

6:11

people get more and more and more

6:13

bearish because they keep things it has

6:15

to come down right

6:17

and the more they are bearish the more

6:19

they don't dare to buy the more they

6:20

shot the market the more they miss out

6:22

the more they get killed look at the

6:24

retail cash on the sidelines this tells

6:26

you how much cash there is on the

6:28

sidelines that people they don't invest

6:31

they're holding cash hoping to get in

6:33

but they can't because the market keeps

6:35

going up you can see that uh as of end

6:38

of March there's 1.9 trillion dollars

6:41

of retail cash

6:44

on the sidelines So eventually they'll

6:46

come back into the markets right by the

6:48

time they come back in the market would

6:50

have gone up a lot more and by coming

6:51

back in they feel the last uh hurray of

6:55

the market and that's when the market

6:57

will come back down again right it

6:58

always happens like that

7:00

so why why is it the last seven months

7:04

so many of the retail investors were so

7:07

negative so bearish and they didn't bet

7:09

their buy because like I said in my

7:11

previous video they fell for the Doom

7:14

and Gloom scam on Wall Street these

7:17

Financial gurus and media they

7:20

perpetuate the Doom and Gloom scam

7:22

always telling you that you know this

7:24

time it's over it's never coming back

7:26

we're gonna die and people fall for this

7:28

crap you know every time

7:32

uh bear Market reverses the bull market

7:34

again I've seen this now for for 31

7:36

years through through 08 through 2012

7:39

through 2020 you know and now 2023 right

7:43

look at all the bad news that they told

7:46

you last year in the media right nine

7:49

out of ten was bad news you know a

7:51

global recession is inevitable in 2023.

7:55

it was back in 18 November last year

7:57

right the stock market will fall 25 when

8:00

the looming us recession hits says

8:03

Deutsche Bank uh this guy says is a

8:06

dangerous game we are playing right

8:08

Bloomberg Global stocks face more

8:10

hurdles in 2023 Bloomberg IMF Chief once

8:14

of tough year for World economy last

8:16

year 21st December SMP facing historical

8:19

warning signed after this year slum and

8:22

early this year people got even more

8:23

bearish

8:25

this guy from JP Morgan said that you

8:28

know I'm outright negative on stocks and

8:29

he said on 24th of January and of course

8:32

we have got uh Michael burry who he

8:34

himself said sell and they said no I'm

8:37

sorry I was wrong and now you find out

8:39

he was buying the bastard right from the

8:42

13 F filing all right and then people

8:46

like Jeremy Grantham says or brace for

8:48

the s p to plunge 50 painful recession

8:51

to strike uh he said in 21st March Bank

8:54

of America says the stock market lows

8:56

will be tested again Morgan Stanley Mike

9:00

Wilson says sell any bounce on the

9:02

government intervention the next leg of

9:03

the bear Market has begun really I

9:06

haven't seen that right stock markets

9:08

are set to crash 37 as the circus rally

9:11

ends and and again all this negative

9:14

[ __ ] right and what really pisses me off

9:17

is at the end of the day who gets hurt

9:19

is the retail investors who listen to

9:21

all these Doom and Gloom prophets who

9:23

get hurt not these people they don't get

9:25

hurt in fact they are doing really well

9:28

because they are buying stocks like for

9:30

example again Jeremy Grantham warns that

9:33

the s p is going to plunge 50 this year

9:35

but he's buying stocks you can see from

9:38

the last 30 F filing or you can check

9:41

out Guru Focus which is his website or

9:43

data Roma you can see that you know his

9:46

his uh fund bought 86 new stocks right

9:50

well yeah he did reduce some of those

9:52

stocks but in in aggregate he actually

9:54

added even more shares so if he thinks

9:57

that the market is going to crash 50 why

10:00

the hell is he buying stocks and why is

10:02

he holding you know billions of dollars

10:04

worth of star now same thing with this

10:06

other Guru uh Stanley drunken Miller who

10:09

is uh George soros's good friend you

10:11

know September of last year he says that

10:13

the us is going to fall into recession

10:16

last year he was extremely bearish but

10:18

again the last 13 air far link you can

10:20

see that again he bought 19 new stocks

10:22

and he bought and added a lot more

10:25

address to many many of these companies

10:27

so lesson do not listen to what they say

10:31

watch what they do it's often very

10:34

different I'm probably the only idiot

10:36

that tells people I'm bullish when I'm

10:38

actually buying stocks maybe I should

10:40

stop telling people I'm bearish right

10:41

well who knows now again it's not just

10:44

the retail investors but a lot of

10:46

institutional hedge funds also hit this

10:50

Market rally and the reason is because

10:52

for example you can see that SNP net

10:55

non-commercial Futures positioning shows

10:58

uh net short of the s p Futures and what

11:02

this means is that the majority of hedge

11:04

funds have actually been betting that

11:06

the market is going to crash and they

11:08

are shorting the SNB Futures which means

11:10

they're going to make money if the

11:11

market goes down as the market keeps

11:13

going up they make huge huge losses and

11:16

these are again institutional hedge

11:18

funds as well

11:20

here's another example you know leverage

11:22

hitch funds continue to fight the tape

11:24

what does that mean that means to say

11:25

that the tip represents the trend as the

11:28

market keeps trending up they keep

11:30

shorting the market as they shot the

11:32

market and go against the trend they

11:33

keep losing more and more money you know

11:35

why do they do that I've got no freaking

11:37

clue right so smart money is not always

11:39

smart money sometimes smart money can be

11:41

just as dumb as the dumb and you can see

11:44

massive shot positions just before this

11:46

recent rally in the markets so is it

11:49

normal for a new bull market to be hated

11:51

so much the answer is yes I've got news

11:54

for you every new market in history was

11:58

always hated and at that time it was

12:01

always known as the most hated rally in

12:05

history it's always the most hated right

12:07

so let me give you an example of all the

12:09

past new bull markets that started after

12:11

bear markets and you will see the same

12:13

headlines check out October 8 2009 this

12:17

was the start of the bull market after

12:20

the financial crisis bear market and

12:23

again what was the headline on October 8

12:25

2019 the most hated rally on Wall Street

12:28

so let's go back in time and let's learn

12:30

from history so this was the 2008

12:33

financial crisis and again this was the

12:36

bear market and the bear Market ended in

12:40

March of 2009 now I called the bear

12:43

Market bottom in January 2009 so I was a

12:47

bit I was two months early at that time

12:49

in fact those of you who have been

12:51

around would remember that I launched my

12:53

book at the time this was my book you

12:54

can still buy from Amazon

12:57

and my book was published on the 1st of

13:00

January 2009 called profit from the

13:02

Panic so in that book I rushed that book

13:05

I was the fastest book I ever wrote in

13:07

that book I said that the market had

13:09

bought it and again I was two months

13:11

early right I was there and then it

13:13

still went down a bit I was like [ __ ]

13:15

okay but then whoa it started going up

13:18

and I made my first million in the

13:20

markets during that time all right so

13:24

again can you see like what I've taught

13:26

you before when the 50 moving average

13:29

crosses above the 150 moving average and

13:32

it starts sloping up that is a

13:34

confirmation of the bull market so you

13:36

can see the bull market was confirmed

13:38

right here

13:39

all right and in September again was it

13:43

September let me just check again yeah

13:45

sorry October October 8th uh which was

13:49

somewhere uh here right

13:52

what did he say it's the most hated

13:54

Market red because the market was

13:56

rallying uh already for again about nine

14:00

months and again it's always nine to ten

14:04

months of blue Market from the bottom

14:06

people hate it because they all missed

14:09

that bottom or they shorted it they've

14:11

been shorting it and they they get their

14:13

face ripped off but again that was the

14:15

start of the bull market and how long

14:17

did that bull market last

14:19

right that blue Market lasted pretty

14:21

long right there was a bit of a

14:23

correction over there this was not a

14:25

bear Market but it kept going up a bit

14:28

of choppiness over here

14:30

all right and the market continued to

14:32

run all the way up all right now here

14:35

this was not officially a bear Market

14:37

because this dropped 20 but it didn't

14:41

close 20 down it kind of like rebounded

14:43

very strongly by the way this was

14:45

actually caused by the US government uh

14:49

getting their debt downgraded by SNP and

14:51

this was in a way caused by the debt

14:53

ceiling at that time which is coming

14:55

soon so we could have that you never

14:57

know right but anyway that's what caused

15:00

that 20 drop at a time and again what

15:02

happened after that drop

15:04

a lot of people here so in panic and a

15:08

lot of Institutions shorted the market

15:10

here and once they shorted it it went up

15:12

they was like ah

15:14

[ __ ] right and then with the blue Market

15:16

again continue over here they hated it

15:20

again check this out

15:22

yeah

15:23

uh sorry this one right uh 7 August

15:27

2012. again the most hated stock market

15:30

rally in history so again August 2012

15:33

was right uh here right so after again

15:37

this crash people sold in panic and they

15:40

were waiting for it to go lower they

15:42

shot the market market went up it was a

15:44

confirmed bull market they said hated it

15:46

and it kept running running running

15:47

right and when was the last one let's

15:50

look at the last one the last one was

15:54

there we are oops

15:57

the last one was in 2020 not too long

16:00

ago right

16:02

so as you guys know I called the bottom

16:05

perfectly for that one so sometimes I

16:07

get it right at the bottom sometimes I'm

16:09

two months early sometimes I'm three

16:11

months early you know but it doesn't

16:13

matter as long as you know you you stay

16:15

in the markets and you buy near the

16:17

bottom you make a lot of money that's

16:18

the point you can't be right exactly all

16:21

the time I'm not writing exactly all the

16:22

time all right so check this out that

16:24

was the crash the covet crash that was

16:27

the bottom a lot of people so in panic a

16:30

lot of people shot at the market there

16:31

and when he went up they was ah in

16:33

disbelief how could this happen and they

16:36

got screwed right and again they hated

16:37

it again check this out

16:39

there we are second June 2020 the most

16:42

hated rally in history just won't stop

16:45

all right when was the 2nd of June there

16:48

2nd of June again you know once it goes

16:51

up they hate it and it keeps going up

16:53

the more you hate the bull market the

16:55

more the bull market will continue

16:57

always remember these Immortal words

16:59

bull markets are born on pessimism they

17:03

grow on skepticism the more people are

17:06

skeptical the more the bull market grows

17:08

but the bull market matures on optimism

17:11

which means when the majority of people

17:13

start to get optimistic it's real it's a

17:16

real bull market oh [ __ ] then it's

17:18

beginning to mature and blue markets die

17:21

on Euphoria which means when everyone

17:22

gets really excited and they start to

17:24

leverage and borrow again that's when it

17:27

ends which we are nowhere near because

17:29

currently margin debt is at an all-time

17:33

low which means the market is currently

17:35

very deleveraged a lot of people have uh

17:37

they leverage their accounts all right

17:40

and again we all know this very famous

17:43

psychology of a market cycle that the

17:46

beginning of a bull market rally is

17:48

always one of disbelief that the

17:51

majority would always say it's a suckers

17:53

rally and again if you go on to Twitter

17:55

you find that again 9 out of 10 people

17:57

eight out of 10 people say that it's a

17:59

suckers rallies a bear Market rally is

18:00

not going to last and as long as the

18:02

disbelief this gives fuel for the bull

18:04

market to continue right and again when

18:07

people get optimistic when they start to

18:10

believe again I believe right once they

18:13

get uh euphoric you know that's when you

18:15

want to be careful all right so where do

18:17

we go from here now again taking a look

18:20

at the price action I always say that

18:22

you know no one can predict the future

18:23

with absolute certainty all we can look

18:25

at is what's the trend of the market the

18:28

trend is your friend it gives you an

18:31

idea about

18:32

um probabilities right so currently the

18:35

S P 500 continues to be on an uptrend uh

18:39

the 50 moving average is about of the

18:41

150 moving average they're both sloping

18:43

upwards the 200-day moving average

18:44

sloping upwards as long as that is uh

18:48

true then the market remains on the

18:50

uptrend but again we are now coming into

18:52

an area of resistance that has been

18:56

tested a couple of times which is over

18:59

here right so this is a significant

19:03

level of resistance this was a previous

19:05

level of Support over here

19:07

and it got tested back in January got

19:11

rejected of that and then it went up

19:13

again in early May and got rejected as

19:16

well so it keeps testing this level of

19:18

resistance now remember that the more

19:20

that level of resistance gets tested in

19:23

a way sometimes the weaker it gets right

19:24

because every time it goes up people

19:26

sell comes back down again it goes up

19:29

people sell comes back down again until

19:30

you run out of sellers so once there are

19:32

no more sellers uh then the buyers would

19:35

then begin to be able to break that

19:37

level of resistance so we'll see now

19:39

eventually this resistance will be

19:42

broken and once it is broken and the

19:44

market closes above 4 200 points

19:49

and that would confirm officially the

19:51

bull market like I keep saying it's not

19:53

officially a bull market yet it's just

19:55

my call there is a bull market based on

19:57

the the price action right so

20:01

um now I mentioned in my last video that

20:03

I do expect the next few months to be

20:05

choppy because again it tends to be you

20:08

know June tends to be a very uh bearish

20:11

month uh so will September okay but uh

20:15

it may get choppy right especially June

20:17

as you guys know we've got the depth

20:18

ceiling

20:20

impasse happening although there was

20:23

news yesterday that Biden and uh

20:25

Kevin McCarthy they're kind of like

20:28

agreeing that they will raise the the

20:30

debt limit but you never know okay so in

20:33

the event that they don't raise the debt

20:35

ceiling or the U.S debt gets downgraded

20:38

by another credit rating agency could we

20:41

have another pullback could we have

20:44

another sell-off it is definitely

20:46

possible that could be a captain's of

20:48

course now I saw an interesting post by

20:51

Mark minoveini who is a very good Trader

20:53

as well in the market it's pretty

20:55

legendary Trader and he shot something

20:57

pretty interesting uh that compared the

20:59

market today which is now kind of like

21:03

consolidating in a tight range after

21:05

that initial uh rally right it's pretty

21:09

similar to what happened in 1991.

21:11

so in 1991 you can see the market kind

21:14

of like started rallying of the lows

21:16

Consolidated and then there was what we

21:19

call a final ShakeOut okay so sometimes

21:22

when there's a catalyst uh market makers

21:25

uh and these you know high frequency uh

21:29

Traders would kind of like shake out uh

21:33

do a large ShakeOut dollar to take out

21:35

the stop losses of the retail traders to

21:37

shake out the weekends before it goes to

21:41

all-time highs so again I'm watching

21:43

whether that will happen Okay so yeah

21:45

there are two scenarios if there's no

21:47

Catalyst uh the debt ceiling gets raised

21:50

easily then we just simply break out of

21:52

this range and we just go to all-time

21:55

highs I mean maybe not this year but

21:57

maybe next year or the year after that

21:59

but if there is a catalyst where again

22:03

some [ __ ] happens that we can't predict

22:05

we may have a final sell-off that shakes

22:10

out these stop losses now when that

22:12

happens I'm gonna buy like crazy I'm

22:14

gonna be a big buyer I'm gonna sell a

22:16

little puts and I'm gonna take advantage

22:18

of this High option premium during

22:20

panics after the ShakeOut once a week

22:23

the the last of the weekends are flushed

22:26

out then we will rarely

22:28

um

22:29

in a sustainable way and this bull

22:31

market again you know most bull markets

22:34

will last for at least three to five

22:35

years or even the next six years so I do

22:37

expect a lot more upside from where we

22:41

are right now all right so

22:43

um it's just beginning the bull market

22:45

is just beginning whether we just

22:47

continue from here or we got another

22:48

final ShakeOut remains to be seen so

22:52

keep watching keep uh following the

22:54

principles and I'll see you guys on the

22:56

other side May the markets be with you

22:58

and till then uh take care if you want

23:01

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23:31

markets be with you

Interactive Summary

The video discusses the current bull market, noting that despite strong performance since October 2022, it is widely labeled as the most hated rally in history. The speaker argues that this negativity is common at the start of bull markets due to retail and institutional skepticism, panic selling during the previous bear market, and the influence of doom-and-gloom media predictions. He emphasizes the importance of sticking to a long-term investment plan and ignoring short-term market noise, while also suggesting that the market could either break through current resistance or experience a 'final shakeout' before continuing its upward trend.

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