The Most Hated Bull Market in History. What's Next?
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So currently the bull market is in its
seventh month wow time really flies ever
since the bear Market ended last year in
October 2022 so ever since then the S P
500 is up over 19 from the lows and up 8
year to date so I got a question for you
are you enjoying this bull market well
if you are type yes into the comment
section well if you have been following
my lessons about only holding
fundamentally great companies and adding
more shares when they were very
undervalued in the last couple of months
you should be seeing very nice gains in
your portfolio over the last seven
months and you should have recovered the
majority of the drawdowns that your
portfolio may have experienced during
the bear Market of 2022 and that's why
it's really important to stick to your
investment plan don't panic during bear
markets whole great companies and keep
adding shares when they're undervalued
and very quickly you can see your
portfolio rebound and go to new highs
and as most of you know my portfolios
went to a drawdown as well last year yep
it was not immune to draw downs but
again by sticking to my investment plan
and holding only the top one percent of
companies in the world and adding shares
when they were undervalued last year I
managed to recover the majority of the
drawdowns so for example in my first
account over here you can see uh let me
just log into my account management
so you can see here today it's up 21
uh way above the S P 500 which is up
eight percent way outperforming S P 500
over a one-year period 12 months ago uh
you can see it's up 21.62 percent
in my other portfolio
which is uh this but particular
portfolio uh it's pretty much the same
if I log into my account
you can see that it's a year to date up
23.74 and from one year ago it's up 18
now I believe that most of you who have
been following my investment principles
and in my community should also be
seeing double digit returns in your
portfolio as well and if you have to
leave your comments in the comment
section would love to read about how you
guys are doing as well but it may
surprise you to know that the majority
of people out there both retail
investors and institutional investors
really hate this bull market in fact
it's been said that now this bull market
is the most hated bull market in history
just do a Google search or bot search
and can see many of these headlines
right on Seeking Alpha the most hated
rally I've ever seen this was in
February 2023
and more recently on 18 April uh on the
street which is a new site Financial new
site stocks the most heated rally yet so
seems a lot of people hate this rally
you can tell especially on Twitter
because I'm on Twitter pretty often and
I would say that easily you know 8 out
of 10 tweets are very very hateful of
the market rallies like what the hell is
going on how can the market go up is
being manipulated the Market's rigged
this is total rubbish right and every
time I read that I always laugh because
you know I've been in the markets now
for over 31 years and I've been through
countless Bear markers countless crashes
and countless new bull markets and every
time is the end of a bear market and
it's the start of a bull market you
always get the same people hating it
saying that oh it's Rick is manipulated
and they don't believe it they're in
denial and by the time they believe it
the market is really a new all-time
highs and it's too late to buy in it
happens every bear to Blue Market cycle
always for the last 31 years I've seen
it for myself
so again why a lot of people hating this
rally this year again very simple
because number one a lot of retail
investors they so in panic last year and
they never got a chance to buy back in
and they were hoping it's going to go
lower but it didn't it kept going up
it's like [ __ ] I can't buy it back now
it's too high come on come down come and
you're hoping it's going to come down
but it never comes like it's going out
but it happens all the time you can see
for example from these brokerage reports
uh this is a report from the clients of
TD Ameritrade which is a broker but see
thing with with all Brokers you can see
that
uh this green line shows you the net
buying or the net selling of retail
investors and you can see that retail
investors they when net sellers
um in March 2020 that was the low of the
Kobe crash and once they dumped their
shares the market goes up right same
thing happened last year retail
investors so in panic in December 2022
two months after the bear Market ended
it's so in panic and then the market is
rallied up 19 from there and they are
left out of the market and of course
they're feeling very very hateful even
worse some smart alec retail Traders
they shorted the market and they've been
shorting the market for the last seven
months and getting their face ripped off
that's why I keep telling you guys that
the main purpose of the stock market is
to make fools of as many people as
possible when everyone thinks the market
is going to crash gonna crash it keeps
going up Market goes opposite of what
everyone thinks so never listen to the
predictions of people never listen to
all these economic data and news it's
all for entertainment purposes just
stick to holding great companies because
great companies always will go up and
focus on the trend of the market which I
keep saying focus on the trend of the
market right
take a look at these charts these are
from a fun Strat uh research and you can
see for example the aaii which is the
American Association of investors
something like that the survey shows
that the majority of people are still
very very bearish sentiment is extremely
bearish now even compared to one year
ago so as the market keeps going up
people get more and more and more
bearish because they keep things it has
to come down right
and the more they are bearish the more
they don't dare to buy the more they
shot the market the more they miss out
the more they get killed look at the
retail cash on the sidelines this tells
you how much cash there is on the
sidelines that people they don't invest
they're holding cash hoping to get in
but they can't because the market keeps
going up you can see that uh as of end
of March there's 1.9 trillion dollars
of retail cash
on the sidelines So eventually they'll
come back into the markets right by the
time they come back in the market would
have gone up a lot more and by coming
back in they feel the last uh hurray of
the market and that's when the market
will come back down again right it
always happens like that
so why why is it the last seven months
so many of the retail investors were so
negative so bearish and they didn't bet
their buy because like I said in my
previous video they fell for the Doom
and Gloom scam on Wall Street these
Financial gurus and media they
perpetuate the Doom and Gloom scam
always telling you that you know this
time it's over it's never coming back
we're gonna die and people fall for this
crap you know every time
uh bear Market reverses the bull market
again I've seen this now for for 31
years through through 08 through 2012
through 2020 you know and now 2023 right
look at all the bad news that they told
you last year in the media right nine
out of ten was bad news you know a
global recession is inevitable in 2023.
it was back in 18 November last year
right the stock market will fall 25 when
the looming us recession hits says
Deutsche Bank uh this guy says is a
dangerous game we are playing right
Bloomberg Global stocks face more
hurdles in 2023 Bloomberg IMF Chief once
of tough year for World economy last
year 21st December SMP facing historical
warning signed after this year slum and
early this year people got even more
bearish
this guy from JP Morgan said that you
know I'm outright negative on stocks and
he said on 24th of January and of course
we have got uh Michael burry who he
himself said sell and they said no I'm
sorry I was wrong and now you find out
he was buying the bastard right from the
13 F filing all right and then people
like Jeremy Grantham says or brace for
the s p to plunge 50 painful recession
to strike uh he said in 21st March Bank
of America says the stock market lows
will be tested again Morgan Stanley Mike
Wilson says sell any bounce on the
government intervention the next leg of
the bear Market has begun really I
haven't seen that right stock markets
are set to crash 37 as the circus rally
ends and and again all this negative
[ __ ] right and what really pisses me off
is at the end of the day who gets hurt
is the retail investors who listen to
all these Doom and Gloom prophets who
get hurt not these people they don't get
hurt in fact they are doing really well
because they are buying stocks like for
example again Jeremy Grantham warns that
the s p is going to plunge 50 this year
but he's buying stocks you can see from
the last 30 F filing or you can check
out Guru Focus which is his website or
data Roma you can see that you know his
his uh fund bought 86 new stocks right
well yeah he did reduce some of those
stocks but in in aggregate he actually
added even more shares so if he thinks
that the market is going to crash 50 why
the hell is he buying stocks and why is
he holding you know billions of dollars
worth of star now same thing with this
other Guru uh Stanley drunken Miller who
is uh George soros's good friend you
know September of last year he says that
the us is going to fall into recession
last year he was extremely bearish but
again the last 13 air far link you can
see that again he bought 19 new stocks
and he bought and added a lot more
address to many many of these companies
so lesson do not listen to what they say
watch what they do it's often very
different I'm probably the only idiot
that tells people I'm bullish when I'm
actually buying stocks maybe I should
stop telling people I'm bearish right
well who knows now again it's not just
the retail investors but a lot of
institutional hedge funds also hit this
Market rally and the reason is because
for example you can see that SNP net
non-commercial Futures positioning shows
uh net short of the s p Futures and what
this means is that the majority of hedge
funds have actually been betting that
the market is going to crash and they
are shorting the SNB Futures which means
they're going to make money if the
market goes down as the market keeps
going up they make huge huge losses and
these are again institutional hedge
funds as well
here's another example you know leverage
hitch funds continue to fight the tape
what does that mean that means to say
that the tip represents the trend as the
market keeps trending up they keep
shorting the market as they shot the
market and go against the trend they
keep losing more and more money you know
why do they do that I've got no freaking
clue right so smart money is not always
smart money sometimes smart money can be
just as dumb as the dumb and you can see
massive shot positions just before this
recent rally in the markets so is it
normal for a new bull market to be hated
so much the answer is yes I've got news
for you every new market in history was
always hated and at that time it was
always known as the most hated rally in
history it's always the most hated right
so let me give you an example of all the
past new bull markets that started after
bear markets and you will see the same
headlines check out October 8 2009 this
was the start of the bull market after
the financial crisis bear market and
again what was the headline on October 8
2019 the most hated rally on Wall Street
so let's go back in time and let's learn
from history so this was the 2008
financial crisis and again this was the
bear market and the bear Market ended in
March of 2009 now I called the bear
Market bottom in January 2009 so I was a
bit I was two months early at that time
in fact those of you who have been
around would remember that I launched my
book at the time this was my book you
can still buy from Amazon
and my book was published on the 1st of
January 2009 called profit from the
Panic so in that book I rushed that book
I was the fastest book I ever wrote in
that book I said that the market had
bought it and again I was two months
early right I was there and then it
still went down a bit I was like [ __ ]
okay but then whoa it started going up
and I made my first million in the
markets during that time all right so
again can you see like what I've taught
you before when the 50 moving average
crosses above the 150 moving average and
it starts sloping up that is a
confirmation of the bull market so you
can see the bull market was confirmed
right here
all right and in September again was it
September let me just check again yeah
sorry October October 8th uh which was
somewhere uh here right
what did he say it's the most hated
Market red because the market was
rallying uh already for again about nine
months and again it's always nine to ten
months of blue Market from the bottom
people hate it because they all missed
that bottom or they shorted it they've
been shorting it and they they get their
face ripped off but again that was the
start of the bull market and how long
did that bull market last
right that blue Market lasted pretty
long right there was a bit of a
correction over there this was not a
bear Market but it kept going up a bit
of choppiness over here
all right and the market continued to
run all the way up all right now here
this was not officially a bear Market
because this dropped 20 but it didn't
close 20 down it kind of like rebounded
very strongly by the way this was
actually caused by the US government uh
getting their debt downgraded by SNP and
this was in a way caused by the debt
ceiling at that time which is coming
soon so we could have that you never
know right but anyway that's what caused
that 20 drop at a time and again what
happened after that drop
a lot of people here so in panic and a
lot of Institutions shorted the market
here and once they shorted it it went up
they was like ah
[ __ ] right and then with the blue Market
again continue over here they hated it
again check this out
yeah
uh sorry this one right uh 7 August
2012. again the most hated stock market
rally in history so again August 2012
was right uh here right so after again
this crash people sold in panic and they
were waiting for it to go lower they
shot the market market went up it was a
confirmed bull market they said hated it
and it kept running running running
right and when was the last one let's
look at the last one the last one was
there we are oops
the last one was in 2020 not too long
ago right
so as you guys know I called the bottom
perfectly for that one so sometimes I
get it right at the bottom sometimes I'm
two months early sometimes I'm three
months early you know but it doesn't
matter as long as you know you you stay
in the markets and you buy near the
bottom you make a lot of money that's
the point you can't be right exactly all
the time I'm not writing exactly all the
time all right so check this out that
was the crash the covet crash that was
the bottom a lot of people so in panic a
lot of people shot at the market there
and when he went up they was ah in
disbelief how could this happen and they
got screwed right and again they hated
it again check this out
there we are second June 2020 the most
hated rally in history just won't stop
all right when was the 2nd of June there
2nd of June again you know once it goes
up they hate it and it keeps going up
the more you hate the bull market the
more the bull market will continue
always remember these Immortal words
bull markets are born on pessimism they
grow on skepticism the more people are
skeptical the more the bull market grows
but the bull market matures on optimism
which means when the majority of people
start to get optimistic it's real it's a
real bull market oh [ __ ] then it's
beginning to mature and blue markets die
on Euphoria which means when everyone
gets really excited and they start to
leverage and borrow again that's when it
ends which we are nowhere near because
currently margin debt is at an all-time
low which means the market is currently
very deleveraged a lot of people have uh
they leverage their accounts all right
and again we all know this very famous
psychology of a market cycle that the
beginning of a bull market rally is
always one of disbelief that the
majority would always say it's a suckers
rally and again if you go on to Twitter
you find that again 9 out of 10 people
eight out of 10 people say that it's a
suckers rallies a bear Market rally is
not going to last and as long as the
disbelief this gives fuel for the bull
market to continue right and again when
people get optimistic when they start to
believe again I believe right once they
get uh euphoric you know that's when you
want to be careful all right so where do
we go from here now again taking a look
at the price action I always say that
you know no one can predict the future
with absolute certainty all we can look
at is what's the trend of the market the
trend is your friend it gives you an
idea about
um probabilities right so currently the
S P 500 continues to be on an uptrend uh
the 50 moving average is about of the
150 moving average they're both sloping
upwards the 200-day moving average
sloping upwards as long as that is uh
true then the market remains on the
uptrend but again we are now coming into
an area of resistance that has been
tested a couple of times which is over
here right so this is a significant
level of resistance this was a previous
level of Support over here
and it got tested back in January got
rejected of that and then it went up
again in early May and got rejected as
well so it keeps testing this level of
resistance now remember that the more
that level of resistance gets tested in
a way sometimes the weaker it gets right
because every time it goes up people
sell comes back down again it goes up
people sell comes back down again until
you run out of sellers so once there are
no more sellers uh then the buyers would
then begin to be able to break that
level of resistance so we'll see now
eventually this resistance will be
broken and once it is broken and the
market closes above 4 200 points
and that would confirm officially the
bull market like I keep saying it's not
officially a bull market yet it's just
my call there is a bull market based on
the the price action right so
um now I mentioned in my last video that
I do expect the next few months to be
choppy because again it tends to be you
know June tends to be a very uh bearish
month uh so will September okay but uh
it may get choppy right especially June
as you guys know we've got the depth
ceiling
impasse happening although there was
news yesterday that Biden and uh
Kevin McCarthy they're kind of like
agreeing that they will raise the the
debt limit but you never know okay so in
the event that they don't raise the debt
ceiling or the U.S debt gets downgraded
by another credit rating agency could we
have another pullback could we have
another sell-off it is definitely
possible that could be a captain's of
course now I saw an interesting post by
Mark minoveini who is a very good Trader
as well in the market it's pretty
legendary Trader and he shot something
pretty interesting uh that compared the
market today which is now kind of like
consolidating in a tight range after
that initial uh rally right it's pretty
similar to what happened in 1991.
so in 1991 you can see the market kind
of like started rallying of the lows
Consolidated and then there was what we
call a final ShakeOut okay so sometimes
when there's a catalyst uh market makers
uh and these you know high frequency uh
Traders would kind of like shake out uh
do a large ShakeOut dollar to take out
the stop losses of the retail traders to
shake out the weekends before it goes to
all-time highs so again I'm watching
whether that will happen Okay so yeah
there are two scenarios if there's no
Catalyst uh the debt ceiling gets raised
easily then we just simply break out of
this range and we just go to all-time
highs I mean maybe not this year but
maybe next year or the year after that
but if there is a catalyst where again
some [ __ ] happens that we can't predict
we may have a final sell-off that shakes
out these stop losses now when that
happens I'm gonna buy like crazy I'm
gonna be a big buyer I'm gonna sell a
little puts and I'm gonna take advantage
of this High option premium during
panics after the ShakeOut once a week
the the last of the weekends are flushed
out then we will rarely
um
in a sustainable way and this bull
market again you know most bull markets
will last for at least three to five
years or even the next six years so I do
expect a lot more upside from where we
are right now all right so
um it's just beginning the bull market
is just beginning whether we just
continue from here or we got another
final ShakeOut remains to be seen so
keep watching keep uh following the
principles and I'll see you guys on the
other side May the markets be with you
and till then uh take care if you want
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markets be with you
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video discusses the current bull market, noting that despite strong performance since October 2022, it is widely labeled as the most hated rally in history. The speaker argues that this negativity is common at the start of bull markets due to retail and institutional skepticism, panic selling during the previous bear market, and the influence of doom-and-gloom media predictions. He emphasizes the importance of sticking to a long-term investment plan and ignoring short-term market noise, while also suggesting that the market could either break through current resistance or experience a 'final shakeout' before continuing its upward trend.
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