foreign

so hello everyone and so far the first

two weeks of 2023 has started on a

pretty bullish note as you can see the S

P 500 is up

over four percent for the year so far

now for those of you who are holding on

to high quality businesses that are very

profitable free cash flow you should be

up even more than that so you guys know

that my portfolio was down last year but

so far has been rebounding this year

because like I I've said before if you

hold on to good companies you have zero

worries because you know what goes down

will always go higher any drawdowns are

purely temporary so if you take a look

at my portfolio right now I want to show

you two of my portfolios

for the U.S markets right so this

portfolio over here

um I just can show you my account

performance year to date

there we are all right so here to date

uh it's up nine percent all right at

about 217 000 for this account and for

this other account over here

you can see here to date uh it is up

about

uh 11 right and it's up 251 000 so in

total like two accounts I'm up about

over 460 000 just in the first two weeks

now granted I'm still way below the high

of my portfolio which was the end of

2021 right up here because as you recall

last year 2022 in a bear Market my

portfolio was actually down 30 right

down 30 last year so although it's up

like 11 year-to-date so far this year

there's a lot more to do to get back to

those Highs are bad but it's okay

because again drawdowns are temporary

they will always go back to New highs

and new highs and new Highs but if you

take a look at it in a longer time frame

you can see for example this chart I've

just printed out is my portfolio from

January 2019 to January 2023 so it's

about four years so like as an investor

you got to take a longer term Horizon of

at least you know three to five years

ahead I guess you know four a period my

portfolio which is the one in blue it is

still up

87.4 percent over four years right

even after this 30 decline last year so

once this bull market continues and the

market rebounds my portfolio be up again

you know 150 200 300 and more as the

years go by now of course the question

on everyone's mind is is this two-week

rally just two weeks is it sustainable

or is it gonna fail is it gonna just you

know set us up for another rock pool are

gonna go through another link down now

most people think that it is not

sustainable you know why recession is

Gonna Come earnings are gonna crash it's

not gonna be sustainable and if you take

a look at the charts over here you can

see that yes we close back above the 200

moving average on the S P daily candles

but you can see what happened every time

you touch the 200 day it went down touch

the 200 it went down Tasha 200 it went

down and we've got this really strong

resistance uh trend line over there that

we're gonna hit and we're gonna go back

down again

so what do I think well I actually think

that no

I think it's a there's a good chance

that we are actually now starting a new

bull market that we will break this

trend line and we will go to new highs

uh maybe not this year but but over time

but I do think this is the start of a

new bull market now I may say why why do

you think that way now there are three

signals of a new bull market and I've

been teaching this now for you know 18

years is not something new so those of

you who have been following me for many

many years on on YouTube on my live

classes you know this I've been teaching

this for a long time there are three

signals to a new bull market number one

the first signal is that the market

has to rise 20 from its laws now that

has not happened yet the markets up only

14 from the lows so that first signal is

not uh valid right the second signal

that a lot of people look at is when the

market closes above the 200 moving

average and the 200 moving average

starts sloping upwards now that has not

happened yet as well you can see that

you know although it closed above the

200-day uh the 200 day was not sloping

up it's still sloping down so that is

not the confirmation of a bull market

right same thing over here you can see

it's close above the 200 day but the 200

is still sloping down so the second uh

signal is not valid but

but the third signal is now valid so you

just need one of the three signals to

confirm a bull market so what's the

third signal is it what's the third

signal the third signal is something

I've been teaching for again more than

18 years and the third signal is this

when the 50 moving average which is the

blue line

when this 50 moving average blue line

crosses above the 150 moving average

green line and both moving averages are

flat or sloping up that confirms the new

bull market so has that happened yes it

has actually just happened so let me

just show you

uh this signal over here now to let me

just remove the 200 moving average so

that it doesn't confuse you let me get

rid of the 200. okay it's gone great so

all we are looking at now is the 50 in

blue and the 150 in green so again

as long as the 50 crosses above the 150

and they are both flat or sloping up

it's a new bull market confirmed so you

can see the 50 has crossed above the

150. but it's not enough

is it sloping up and flat well you can

see the 50 moving average is sloping up

okay and the 150 moving average was

sloping down you can see it was sloping

down sloping down but if you look at the

last few days it has started to flatten

so this is actually a valid signal of a

new bull market you see really does this

really work are you sure well let me

show you the history of this signal and

how reliable it has been all right let's

go back let's go back 20 years and look

at this signal shall we okay so let's

scroll back let's scroll back every time

the 50 crossed above the 150 and they

flatten or slow up look at what happened

to the market it confirmed a new bull

market right so let's go back over here

to the Corbett crash

now when did it cross there that was a

crossover can you see that right 50

Crossing above the 150 blue sloping up

green flattened all right and boom

started the new bull market okay let's

go back even further

there this one same thing

right 50 Crossing above the 150 right

and it begins to flatten over here it's

sloping up and then triggers the next

bull market over there let's go back

even further shall we

okay uh now this is not counted because

it was not even in a bear Market in the

first place right so it's got to be

first in a bear Market all right

um

okay how about this one all right so

over here you can see the market went

into uh this was already a bear Market

it was a big crash right now over here

you can see the 50 Crossing above the

150. now is this a valid signal of a

bull market no why no because the 50 is

sloping up but the 150 is sloping down

so that was not a valid signal and

that's why it went back lower right now

how about this one is this a valid

signal yes because the 50 is sloping up

and the 150 has also slope up so this is

the valid signal so the slope is the

most important thing it's not just a

crossover it must be the slope and you

can see that triggered that bull market

over there okay let's go back even

further

let's go back 20 years at least right to

see the reliability of this signal is it

really reliable okay let's go back go

back go back go back go back go back go

back

there we are right 50 Crossing above the

150 right now initially this was sloping

down here so this was not the valid

signal yet it has to flatten it flatten

here sloping up here this would be the

Buy Signal all right and then boom then

you start the new bull market over there

okay okay let's go back go back go back

more go back more right how about this

one

same thing 50 Crossing above the 150

that's sloping up that sloping up boom

next Bull markets over there

now this was the financial crisis

right so the market crash

over a year and a half and then we had

this bullish signal over here right 50

Crossing above the 150 50 sloping up

this was sloping down sloping down began

to flatten over here so the Buy Signal

or rather the bull market signal

basically appeared somewhere here and

that triggered the next multi bull

market okay

so this uh 2008 2009

um

so let's go back even further right I

said you know let's go by 20 years man

20 years right

okay

um now over here

now this was not a bear Market in the

first place so that's not counted in

fact this started the bear Market the

bear Market started over here when it

crossed over right 50 Crossing back uh

below 150.

okay

this was not really a bear Market as

well it's just a big crash we can see

crossover over there and then bull

market continues

right now this was again not a bear

Market because the 150 was sloping it

all the way it never slowed down

okay now this was a bear Market yeah

this was the 2000 crash check this out

so the 2000 bear Market actually started

here as you can see this was an uptrend

and It reversed into a downtrend and you

can see clearly the 50 moving average

crossed below the 150 confirming the

bear market so where did we get a bull

market signal during the.com crash

now over here you can see that the 50

moving average cross above the 150 so

was that a bull market signal no because

the 150 again was still sloping

downwards we need both of them to

flatten or slope up now you could argue

that well over here

the 50 moving average did start to

flatten and slope up

and the 150 did start to flatten so this

could have been actually a bull market

signal based on that uh that indicator

right but then it failed so in other

words this was a false signal so again

no matter what indicator we use is never

going to be a hundred percent there's no

100 indicator

right so sometimes you do get false

signals so that was a false signal over

there uh then the market continued going

down and now was this a bull market

signal now this is clearly not because

the 150 is still sloping downwards never

flatten right so that was not and then

we got another bull market signal right

so 50 Crossing above 150 that's sloping

up that's sloping up both are sloping up

so that would have been a confirmed bull

market signal there and that would have

been B uh

eventual bull market that started

so again the lesson to learn is that

there's no indicator that will give you

a hundred percent all right it's no such

thing you will get false signals but you

can see that this particular indicator

I've been using for many many years it's

not 100 but it's over a 90 reliability

over 90 okay so the fact that we now

have this bull market signal

okay tells me that there is a 90 chance

that the bull market has started now you

may say Adam I don't want ninety percent

I won 99 okay fine so if you want a 99

confirmation I would say then wait for

the second signal which is wait for the

um

the 200 moving average which is this red

line wait for the 200 moving average to

start sloping upwards so when or even

when this red line 200 starts to slow

upwards it has to slope upwards and we

are able to break above this uh trend

line resistance then that I would say

would be a 99

confirmation let me say but I want 100

okay okay great so if you want 100 then

you have to wait for uh the market to

close 20 below the laws from the low

sorry right so from the lows you can see

that we made in October last year those

were the lows so far we are up

uh 14.4 so it has to go up 20

uh and close above 20 which is roughly

at about 4

000 200 points to have the hundred

percent confirmation okay so notice that

you know the higher the con the higher

the

the probability right if you want 100

then you will have to end up of course

buying in at much higher prices that's

that's always a price to pay okay now

for me if you ask me as an investor you

know I don't wait for 100 you know as

long as I got like you know eighty

percent I'll start buying why

because you know I want to get in while

things are still cheap where they're

still reasonably priced when it's like

100 and everyone sure is a bull market

by the time things are very expensive

again you know but people say by end of

what if you're wrong what if you go into

the 80 or 90 chance but it's that 10 it

goes down again well so what it goes

down again because eventually it will go

up maybe later maybe it will the bull

market will start next and who knows

right but as an investor I'm patient

it's not a Sprint that you must go up

now it's a marathon I know it will go up

eventually whether this year or next

year or three years and I will get

richer and richer over time so

I'm patient right so being a patient guy

I want to buy is cheap as possible and

that's why in fact I've really been

buying as of last year right even though

uh we did not even confirm this this

signal I was really buying and you guys

in my community be getting my buy

signals I've been I've been adding more

and more shares of great companies and

that's why I'm already up about you know

nine to eleven percent this year

now a lot of people say about Adam you

know you just you can't just look at

technicals right just go look at chart

patterns you have to look at the the

fundamentals okay

so ultimately a lot of people think that

the market is going to go lower because

earnings corporate earnings are going to

be worse than expected people are too

optimistic about corporate earnings uh

people believe that corporate earnings

will decline even more and corporate

earnings have not yet bottomed you know

something I agree they have not yet

bought them I think that corporate

earnings could still go down a lot more

this year they could but you know what

who cares let me show you why the stock

market can still go up even if corporate

earnings continue going down

so first take a look at this chart you

can see this is the chart of the S P 500

earnings per share and earnings per

share is still growing year on year as

you can see uh the last quarter it's up

six percent year on year so it's still

growing on here although it's been

decelerating but month on month

corporate earnings have actually been

have actually started declining

all right and again a lot of people

expect that this year uh especially if

there's a recession corporate earnings

will go down even more and bottom only

to the end of the year all right I'm

gonna show you something really

interesting

if you look at all the past bear markets

you will notice that the stock market

bottoms way before corporate earnings

bottom in other words the stock market

can go up even though corporate earnings

are still in Decline let's look at all

the past recessions let me kind of like

zoom in so this was back in 1957 right

let's create 1957. now pay attention to

two lines the first line is this dotted

line can you see this dotted line in in

kind of like is this blue or I don't

know what you call that right anyway so

this is the S P 500 the stock market

okay the second line to look at would be

this red line the red line are corporate

earnings of the S P 500 okay so notice

something interesting notice that

the market bought them here right but

corporate earnings in red had not bought

them they are they still continue going

all the way down and they only bottomed

here

so notice that even as corporate

earnings kept going down companies

reported worse and worse earnings the

stock market didn't give a flying

right the stock market

why not right so if you say Adam I'm

gonna wait for corporate earnings to you

know recover to buy by the time the

corporate earnings recover you'll be

buying right here after the market has

already moved like 50 60 up you're late

to the party okay now let's look at the

1970s which was the high inflation era

that we we can compare to right now same

thing when did the S P 500 bottom the S

P 500 bottom over here or over here I

mean see if I can use a drawing tool

right okay so S P 500 bottomed over here

the earnings bottom no you can see that

corporate earnings only started

declining right and it went even lower

right earnings were declining but as

earnings were going down the stock

market

was already going up

now the same thing in the 1980s you can

see that the market bottom be way before

earnings bottom Market went up as

earnings continued going down same thing

in the 1990s Market bottom over here

and corporate earnings were still in

Decline corporate earnings bottom many

in fact a couple in fact bought them a

year later okay so again as corporate

earnings are declining the Market's

already going up because remember the

market is a forward pricing mechanism

the market doesn't care what's happening

to corporate earnings today what's

happening to the community it doesn't

care the market cares what it thinks

the economy will be in the future the

Market's always looking into the future

so that's why you have to look at

leading indicators and not

um coincidence or lagging indicators how

about the global financial crisis

same thing Market bottoms way before

corporate earnings bottom while earnings

are going down markets already starting

to go up same thing with the covet

pandemic in 2020 uh Market bottom over

there corporate earnings bottom over

there it happened every single time so

I'm not too concerned if corporate

earnings still go down because that

doesn't mean that the market can't start

going up if you want to catch my latest

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cool and may the markets be with you