HomeVideos

The AI Economy is about to change

Now Playing

The AI Economy is about to change

Transcript

276 segments

0:00

All right, fellas. It's happening. The

0:03

cracks are starting to show. The

0:05

foundations looking a little bit shaky.

0:07

I'm talking talking about the AI

0:09

economy, the token economy. Uh the first

0:12

one comes courtesy of course of

0:13

Anthropic, everybody's favorite, the

0:15

good guys, am I right? I love their

0:17

lawyers. What ended up happening just a

0:20

couple days ago is Anthropic did

0:21

something called a painted door test. At

0:23

least that's the term I've always heard.

0:25

I think I've seen other people use fake

0:27

door test where you actually show

0:28

alternative pricing on your page to see,

0:31

hey, how much more money could we make

0:34

if we charged people more? How many more

0:36

people would leave the pricing page? So,

0:38

let me give you a a hypothetical. Let's

0:40

say that you raised the cost of your

0:41

product by 10%. And a,000 people visit

0:44

your pricing page. Typically, you'd get

0:47

a 100 customers out of your thousand

0:48

customers. But now, with your raised

0:50

prices, you only get 95 customers. But

0:53

of those 95 customers, you make more

0:55

money. So you say, "Hey, the area under

0:57

the curve is worth it. We're going to

0:58

lose a couple customers, but we're going

1:00

to gain more money." This is kind of the

1:02

idea of a painted door test. But

1:04

Anthropic did something a bit different.

1:06

Instead of doing a price change, they

1:09

just simply removed clawed code usage

1:11

from the $20 plan. See, in a typical

1:14

painted door test, after someone says,

1:15

"Okay, we'll pay this price." They're

1:17

like, "JK, bro. You're super special to

1:20

us, so you get actually a reduced price

1:21

because we love you." Well, this one,

1:24

there's an entire group of people that

1:25

when they visited this page saw they

1:27

couldn't use Claude code for $20 a

1:28

month. They paid $100 a month. It just

1:31

tricked some small percentage of people.

1:34

I don't think anyone's surprised by

1:35

this. And the people that are surprised

1:36

by it, you always hear kind of the same

1:38

thing. Well, they're making money off of

1:40

inference. like every time they do like

1:42

a request call, of course they make

1:44

money. It's like, yeah, I guess if you

1:46

measured how much a shoe cost by only

1:49

paying the employee to sell the shoe,

1:51

then you're like, "Yeah, you're making

1:52

money off of every shoe. They're making

1:53

money off of every request." Yeah, that

1:56

makes sense, but you're not actually

1:57

considering the real cost. Remember,

2:00

people that used Opus 45 are now using

2:02

Opus 46. Nobody's using Opus 47. A kind

2:05

of tarted model. No, no one really likes

2:08

that one. But that means all the cost

2:10

that went into 45 if they didn't recoup

2:13

that in inference cost 45 just cost them

2:17

money. And this is obviously what's

2:18

happening. Open AI got 122 or $120

2:23

billion investment and that's enough

2:26

money to run for 18 to 24 months. That

2:29

is like 5 to7 billion every single month

2:33

in the hole for the next 18 to 24

2:36

months. They had to do this test because

2:38

they have to know how much money they

2:39

can make because if they don't make some

2:41

sort of change, they're going to

2:42

continue to lose billions of dollars.

2:44

Now, if this just happened by itself,

2:46

I'd say, "Hey, Claw just needs to make

2:48

more money. They need to start becoming

2:50

more competitive because they're

2:51

competing against OpenAI." And then I'd

2:53

be like, "Okay, that's that's just

2:54

that." But this isn't the only case of

2:56

this happening because just a couple

2:58

days ago, guess who else decided to make

2:59

a bit of a price change? Microsoft. Oh,

3:02

beautiful Microsoft. I love Satia. I

3:05

love co-pilot. Isn't co-pilot is this is

3:08

this the greatest? You're probably

3:09

confused when I say co-pilot because

3:10

you're probably thinking of like one of

3:11

their 50 services. I I'm talking about

3:14

the GitHub the GitHub co-pilot in this

3:16

case. See the GitHub copilot you used to

3:18

pay some sort of amount of money and

3:19

then you could perform actions on

3:20

behalf. You had some sort of amount of

3:22

actions you could execute. Well, what's

3:24

the problem with that? Not every model

3:26

cost the same. If you're thinking about

3:27

composer too fast from cursor, that

3:29

thing costs like nothing. When you're

3:32

thinking about Opus 47, that costs a lot

3:36

more. We're talking like 20 times more

3:38

the cost. So obviously Co-Pilot, they

3:41

had to make some sort of reduction. And

3:42

that's what they did. You no longer just

3:44

get some amount of executes. You get

3:47

token usage because if you use a more

3:49

expensive model, well guess what? You

3:51

got to use more of your tokens.

3:53

Therefore, you won't get as many calls

3:55

out of it. This is a change. It needs to

3:57

become more economically viable. But

3:59

before that, to pay for all my tokens,

4:01

sponsor time.

4:02

>> Look at all these engineers sitting at

4:05

their neat little desks. It takes dirty

4:07

work to keep a code base clean. Every

4:10

day, sickos are out there committing

4:12

unreed code. And when that happens,

4:15

llinters won't save you. You need

4:18

someone like me.

4:19

>> Let's go.

4:21

>> Feature free scrumbag. Who you calling

4:23

scrumbag? What's this slop you're trying

4:25

to push? Unnecessary comments. Global

4:28

state nested turnaries.

4:30

>> H my bad. I didn't even read the code

4:32

yet.

4:33

>> You disgust me. Step away from the

4:34

keyboard.

4:35

>> Just let me explain.

4:36

>> Is that a mouse? HE'S MERGING A PROD.

4:38

YOU HAVE THE RIGHT to remain silent.

4:40

Anything you push to GitHub Canon will

4:42

be used against you. You have the right

4:43

to a debugger. But if you cannot afford

4:45

one, a public stack trace will be made

4:47

available to you.

4:50

And one more code criminal off the

4:52

streets where they belong. HR.

4:57

Look, I didn't even I know I didn't

5:00

review any of the code, but I was going

5:02

to have Code Rabbit review it from the

5:03

start with oneclick fixes install

5:05

enforcement. I don't need Merge Cop. I

5:08

would never merge unreviewed code, but a

5:10

first pass with Code Rabbit always makes

5:12

things go faster. Actually, you can try

5:14

it too at code rabbit.ai.

5:17

>> Next week on Merge Cop.

5:19

>> The Diffler's out there, and I'm going

5:21

to be the one to deprecate them.

5:26

See, the difference between Microsoft

5:28

and Anthropic is Microsoft makes money.

5:30

I know, crazy concept for Anthropic, but

5:33

Microsoft makes a lot of money. Whether

5:35

you like it or not, they're one of the

5:36

biggest companies in the world. And

5:38

therefore,

5:40

they can actually kind of take like a

5:42

bit of a nose dive for a while

5:44

accumulating users. But even at this

5:46

point, they're going, "Hey, we can't we

5:49

can't do this. We got to make more. This

5:51

this is silly. What's going on here?

5:53

This doesn't even make sense according

5:55

to Microsoft. Now the real winner

5:57

honestly from all of this is Google.

5:59

Classic Google. They are pouring like a

6:02

hundred plus billion dollars a year into

6:04

AI and they can just do that. And guess

6:06

what? After they pour hundred billion,

6:08

$200 billion into AI, they still make

6:12

money. That's wild. Like they can do so

6:15

much money for the next year after year

6:18

and they don't have to worry about will

6:20

investors still find me attractive?

6:22

That's probably why you're not getting

6:23

the same level of hype coming from

6:26

Google that you get from these

6:27

companies. Like, just think about that

6:29

for a second. Google's also competing on

6:31

the frontier. Google's also attempting

6:33

to win the market. Google's also trying

6:35

to convince everybody that their AI is

6:36

the best AI, that they're going to be

6:38

able to shepherd it and take it into the

6:39

future despite the fact of inventing the

6:41

T and GPT and somehow fumbling the bag

6:44

and not being the first one to market.

6:46

Nobody knows the answer to that one. And

6:48

AI is really expensive. Uber just got

6:50

done claiming that within four months

6:52

they spent their entire year's budget on

6:55

AI. Gee, I can't believe this is

6:57

happening. How could you tell every

6:59

employee to maximally use AI? By the

7:02

way, we're judging you on AI usage. Oh

7:04

my gosh, you're using too much AI. How'd

7:06

that happen? What the hell? You're not

7:08

supposed to be using a year budget in 4

7:10

months. What are you even doing? What

7:12

are people doing with all those tokens?

7:14

I don't even know. Like, I don't think

7:16

we're going to be like, "Well, back it

7:17

up everybody. Uh, we're not going to use

7:19

AI anymore. You're going to have to go

7:20

back to hand coding everything because

7:22

AI is just not economically viable. No,

7:24

no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

7:26

They will find a way. Sure, it may be in

7:28

a couple years, but you know what?

7:30

They're going to find a way to make this

7:32

thing viable. But for now, we're

7:34

starting to see the cracks. Things just

7:36

can't be as free as they once were, and

7:38

the amount of usage you're going to be

7:39

getting is clearly and obviously going

7:41

down. I don't want to be the person

7:42

that's like, "Oh, Mr. Anti-AI for all

7:44

reasons." Like that's why I make this

7:46

video to show you how ridiculous their

7:48

marketing is. This is why they do such

7:50

hyped out marketing. This is why Daario

7:53

is constantly telling you, "Hey, you're

7:54

out of a job here very, very soon. You

7:56

you you Yeah, we're going to take your

7:57

job." I feel super bad about it. Oh, I

8:00

just feel so bad about me taking all of

8:03

your money. I'm so sorry. It's so

8:06

dangerous. But this is the reason why

8:08

they're doing it. They need to raise

8:10

money. This is why Google doesn't do it.

8:12

They don't need to raise the same kind

8:14

of capital that uh Daario and Sam need

8:16

to raise. I think there's plenty of

8:18

great uses for AI. I I do use it on the

8:20

regular. Even though I participate in

8:23

Daario's least favorite activity, hand

8:25

coding every single I'm a tried coder.

8:26

Okay, I like triad coding, but I also

8:28

like AI. There's plenty of times that

8:30

it's actually super convenient. And so

8:32

ultimately, I just hope to kind of bring

8:33

a a bit of a more middle ground to

8:35

things because tech is exciting. Like

8:37

think about this for a second. We get to

8:40

build like anything that your mind can

8:42

come up with. Like that is such an

8:44

incredible privilege to have. Most of

8:46

the world was spent dying because you

8:49

stepped on some piece of metal that you

8:50

didn't see. And oh, sucks. You got

8:52

tetanus now. Looks like you're dead.

8:54

Dysentery on the Oregon Trail. Yep. Too

8:58

bad. Shouldn't have been doing whatever

9:00

you were doing, which was called living

9:01

cuz now you're dead. Instead, we

9:03

actually get the opportunity to build

9:05

all this stuff. And for me, this is the

9:06

most exciting time period to ever live

9:08

in because now I get to just have any

9:11

kind of personalized experience. Like a

9:13

quick pro tip, you're learning

9:15

something, dude. If it's open source,

9:18

clone down the repo, open up AI and say,

9:20

"Hey yo, based on the code, give me an

9:22

example of how to do this. Explain that.

9:24

Explain this." It's like personalized

9:26

documentation. Super cool. Anyways, I

9:28

wanted to end on a high note, you know,

9:30

uh, just because I just feel like the

9:32

yapping that's going on is just so kind

9:35

of jaded. The name is the tokenogen.

Interactive Summary

Loading summary...