The AI Economy is about to change
276 segments
All right, fellas. It's happening. The
cracks are starting to show. The
foundations looking a little bit shaky.
I'm talking talking about the AI
economy, the token economy. Uh the first
one comes courtesy of course of
Anthropic, everybody's favorite, the
good guys, am I right? I love their
lawyers. What ended up happening just a
couple days ago is Anthropic did
something called a painted door test. At
least that's the term I've always heard.
I think I've seen other people use fake
door test where you actually show
alternative pricing on your page to see,
hey, how much more money could we make
if we charged people more? How many more
people would leave the pricing page? So,
let me give you a a hypothetical. Let's
say that you raised the cost of your
product by 10%. And a,000 people visit
your pricing page. Typically, you'd get
a 100 customers out of your thousand
customers. But now, with your raised
prices, you only get 95 customers. But
of those 95 customers, you make more
money. So you say, "Hey, the area under
the curve is worth it. We're going to
lose a couple customers, but we're going
to gain more money." This is kind of the
idea of a painted door test. But
Anthropic did something a bit different.
Instead of doing a price change, they
just simply removed clawed code usage
from the $20 plan. See, in a typical
painted door test, after someone says,
"Okay, we'll pay this price." They're
like, "JK, bro. You're super special to
us, so you get actually a reduced price
because we love you." Well, this one,
there's an entire group of people that
when they visited this page saw they
couldn't use Claude code for $20 a
month. They paid $100 a month. It just
tricked some small percentage of people.
I don't think anyone's surprised by
this. And the people that are surprised
by it, you always hear kind of the same
thing. Well, they're making money off of
inference. like every time they do like
a request call, of course they make
money. It's like, yeah, I guess if you
measured how much a shoe cost by only
paying the employee to sell the shoe,
then you're like, "Yeah, you're making
money off of every shoe. They're making
money off of every request." Yeah, that
makes sense, but you're not actually
considering the real cost. Remember,
people that used Opus 45 are now using
Opus 46. Nobody's using Opus 47. A kind
of tarted model. No, no one really likes
that one. But that means all the cost
that went into 45 if they didn't recoup
that in inference cost 45 just cost them
money. And this is obviously what's
happening. Open AI got 122 or $120
billion investment and that's enough
money to run for 18 to 24 months. That
is like 5 to7 billion every single month
in the hole for the next 18 to 24
months. They had to do this test because
they have to know how much money they
can make because if they don't make some
sort of change, they're going to
continue to lose billions of dollars.
Now, if this just happened by itself,
I'd say, "Hey, Claw just needs to make
more money. They need to start becoming
more competitive because they're
competing against OpenAI." And then I'd
be like, "Okay, that's that's just
that." But this isn't the only case of
this happening because just a couple
days ago, guess who else decided to make
a bit of a price change? Microsoft. Oh,
beautiful Microsoft. I love Satia. I
love co-pilot. Isn't co-pilot is this is
this the greatest? You're probably
confused when I say co-pilot because
you're probably thinking of like one of
their 50 services. I I'm talking about
the GitHub the GitHub co-pilot in this
case. See the GitHub copilot you used to
pay some sort of amount of money and
then you could perform actions on
behalf. You had some sort of amount of
actions you could execute. Well, what's
the problem with that? Not every model
cost the same. If you're thinking about
composer too fast from cursor, that
thing costs like nothing. When you're
thinking about Opus 47, that costs a lot
more. We're talking like 20 times more
the cost. So obviously Co-Pilot, they
had to make some sort of reduction. And
that's what they did. You no longer just
get some amount of executes. You get
token usage because if you use a more
expensive model, well guess what? You
got to use more of your tokens.
Therefore, you won't get as many calls
out of it. This is a change. It needs to
become more economically viable. But
before that, to pay for all my tokens,
sponsor time.
>> Look at all these engineers sitting at
their neat little desks. It takes dirty
work to keep a code base clean. Every
day, sickos are out there committing
unreed code. And when that happens,
llinters won't save you. You need
someone like me.
>> Let's go.
>> Feature free scrumbag. Who you calling
scrumbag? What's this slop you're trying
to push? Unnecessary comments. Global
state nested turnaries.
>> H my bad. I didn't even read the code
yet.
>> You disgust me. Step away from the
keyboard.
>> Just let me explain.
>> Is that a mouse? HE'S MERGING A PROD.
YOU HAVE THE RIGHT to remain silent.
Anything you push to GitHub Canon will
be used against you. You have the right
to a debugger. But if you cannot afford
one, a public stack trace will be made
available to you.
And one more code criminal off the
streets where they belong. HR.
Look, I didn't even I know I didn't
review any of the code, but I was going
to have Code Rabbit review it from the
start with oneclick fixes install
enforcement. I don't need Merge Cop. I
would never merge unreviewed code, but a
first pass with Code Rabbit always makes
things go faster. Actually, you can try
it too at code rabbit.ai.
>> Next week on Merge Cop.
>> The Diffler's out there, and I'm going
to be the one to deprecate them.
See, the difference between Microsoft
and Anthropic is Microsoft makes money.
I know, crazy concept for Anthropic, but
Microsoft makes a lot of money. Whether
you like it or not, they're one of the
biggest companies in the world. And
therefore,
they can actually kind of take like a
bit of a nose dive for a while
accumulating users. But even at this
point, they're going, "Hey, we can't we
can't do this. We got to make more. This
this is silly. What's going on here?
This doesn't even make sense according
to Microsoft. Now the real winner
honestly from all of this is Google.
Classic Google. They are pouring like a
hundred plus billion dollars a year into
AI and they can just do that. And guess
what? After they pour hundred billion,
$200 billion into AI, they still make
money. That's wild. Like they can do so
much money for the next year after year
and they don't have to worry about will
investors still find me attractive?
That's probably why you're not getting
the same level of hype coming from
Google that you get from these
companies. Like, just think about that
for a second. Google's also competing on
the frontier. Google's also attempting
to win the market. Google's also trying
to convince everybody that their AI is
the best AI, that they're going to be
able to shepherd it and take it into the
future despite the fact of inventing the
T and GPT and somehow fumbling the bag
and not being the first one to market.
Nobody knows the answer to that one. And
AI is really expensive. Uber just got
done claiming that within four months
they spent their entire year's budget on
AI. Gee, I can't believe this is
happening. How could you tell every
employee to maximally use AI? By the
way, we're judging you on AI usage. Oh
my gosh, you're using too much AI. How'd
that happen? What the hell? You're not
supposed to be using a year budget in 4
months. What are you even doing? What
are people doing with all those tokens?
I don't even know. Like, I don't think
we're going to be like, "Well, back it
up everybody. Uh, we're not going to use
AI anymore. You're going to have to go
back to hand coding everything because
AI is just not economically viable. No,
no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
They will find a way. Sure, it may be in
a couple years, but you know what?
They're going to find a way to make this
thing viable. But for now, we're
starting to see the cracks. Things just
can't be as free as they once were, and
the amount of usage you're going to be
getting is clearly and obviously going
down. I don't want to be the person
that's like, "Oh, Mr. Anti-AI for all
reasons." Like that's why I make this
video to show you how ridiculous their
marketing is. This is why they do such
hyped out marketing. This is why Daario
is constantly telling you, "Hey, you're
out of a job here very, very soon. You
you you Yeah, we're going to take your
job." I feel super bad about it. Oh, I
just feel so bad about me taking all of
your money. I'm so sorry. It's so
dangerous. But this is the reason why
they're doing it. They need to raise
money. This is why Google doesn't do it.
They don't need to raise the same kind
of capital that uh Daario and Sam need
to raise. I think there's plenty of
great uses for AI. I I do use it on the
regular. Even though I participate in
Daario's least favorite activity, hand
coding every single I'm a tried coder.
Okay, I like triad coding, but I also
like AI. There's plenty of times that
it's actually super convenient. And so
ultimately, I just hope to kind of bring
a a bit of a more middle ground to
things because tech is exciting. Like
think about this for a second. We get to
build like anything that your mind can
come up with. Like that is such an
incredible privilege to have. Most of
the world was spent dying because you
stepped on some piece of metal that you
didn't see. And oh, sucks. You got
tetanus now. Looks like you're dead.
Dysentery on the Oregon Trail. Yep. Too
bad. Shouldn't have been doing whatever
you were doing, which was called living
cuz now you're dead. Instead, we
actually get the opportunity to build
all this stuff. And for me, this is the
most exciting time period to ever live
in because now I get to just have any
kind of personalized experience. Like a
quick pro tip, you're learning
something, dude. If it's open source,
clone down the repo, open up AI and say,
"Hey yo, based on the code, give me an
example of how to do this. Explain that.
Explain this." It's like personalized
documentation. Super cool. Anyways, I
wanted to end on a high note, you know,
uh, just because I just feel like the
yapping that's going on is just so kind
of jaded. The name is the tokenogen.
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