You love me.

>> I do. You love the dog.

>> Sadly, sadly, sadly. It's the worst

relationship of my life and my finest uh

>> Oh, come on.

>> Hi everyone. This is Pivot from New York

Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast

Network. I'm Carara Swisser

>> and I'm Scott Galloway

>> and Oh, nice.

Wow, that was really good. And we're

recording this episode in front of a

live audience here at the AdWeek House

at K can't can't sorry can Lions

International Festival of Creativity. Is

that what it's called? All right, fine.

We're doing that. Welcome everybody.

>> So, let's just start. Scott, I we

haven't seen each other at all. Correct.

Not even slightly.

>> Yeah. No, it's it's a great camp. I

mean, we love

>> Great for both of us though. We don't

have to see each other. Um I brought my

children. We've having a lovely time.

They were just in the Mediterranean this

morning. Um, and I've had a lovely time

with them except for the heat. But how

is your con going can? Sorry. Jesus

Christ.

>> I love it here. Um, but I don't know if

you saw that crazy drone show.

>> Yeah, that was

actually the word is, and I can validate

this. It's an alien craft. It's an alien

species of species of women who are no

joke are abducting guys with enormous

dicks.

Um, so you're safe.

But also, just so you know, the

spaceship is incredible.

>> Oh, yeah.

>> Hello, France.

That took like five seconds to get to a

penis joke and a highly complimentary

one to yourself which is inaccurate but

nonetheless.

>> Don't ask me my nickname in a

fraternity. Just don't just don't.

Tripod.

>> Yeah.

>> Tripod. Anyways, sorry.

>> It's tapod.

>> Tripod is pod. It's like you should you

should take intentions or gestures with

the intentions that they're made or that

are intended or you know what I'm

saying.

>> Yeah. Okay. No, I don't. All right. Let

me just let How is your can gone? How's

it gone?

>> It's great. It's the first time I've

left my hotel.

>> Okay. All right. He's You're saying

>> when I was their age, I used to have to

work here and like, you know, meet with

Martin Selis. I'd have lunch with him

and he'd take calls and just go one

minute. One minute. And now it's like

Mr. Beast is the man. Um,

>> yeah.

>> Yeah. I love I absolutely love it about

what's what what do you think are the

big takeaways so far?

>> So, uh, hands down the biggest trend is

the creator economy. There's 500 here

this year. There were 400 last year. It

used to be It's sort of ironic that this

is meant to be a gathering. It's 13,000

people from 90 countries. It's meant to

be a gathering to celebrate the

industry, but the industry hasn't yet

recognized they're no longer the

protagonist. And that the industry if

you think of it the means of production

talent used to command 10 or 15% of the

total revenue because in between there

were these means of production or moes

an ad agency uh distribution a studio

makeup unions a cable going into

people's homes and now people with these

few platforms that command a

disproportionate margin they do really

well but you have thousands it's no

longer Madison Avenue it's a bunch of

studios and the celebrities here are no

longer When I used to come here, Maurice

Levy, Martin Surell, John Ren, they own

the closet.

>> Now it's some creator who's talking

about food, you know. So, it's it really

has there's a distribution from

institutions to individuals. Uh AI last

year was what do we do with AI? Now,

it's how do we organize our company

around AI? How do we get an ROI there? I

think there's been people have come to

the conclusion that AI is all chip and

no salsa and that creativity has never

been more important. Where social media

takes people to the extremes, AI takes

everyone to the middle and it's very

moderated and so creativity has never

been more important. Remember AI was

going to produce commercials. There's

more designers now at IBM as a

percentage of their employment and

creatives than there was last year. So

creativity appears.

>> I have noticed the sort of fall off in

the AI dementia that was here last year.

I mean, it's really I mean, it's that's

everywhere actually when every

everyone's sort of coming to the

conclusion that they're not really clear

what efficacy this stuff has instead of

having to I mean, the drone show did do

AI and it was it was not AI, it was it

wasn't artificial intelligence. It was

something else. They had another word.

Uh, what it was

>> art and art and intelligence instead of

artificial intelligence.

>> Yeah. And the other and the other big

trend is sports.

>> Yeah. Yeah, there wasn't a sport beach

here. Sport really is the cultural

religion now. And it's it's one of the I

mean the biggest I think the two biggest

stories taking place right now, one's

positive and one's negative. And the

things we'll be talking about two weeks,

I like to predict what'll be the biggest

business stories that are happening. The

biggest cultural story would be the

coming together that basically the World

Cup is doing what the UN was supposed to

do. And these wonderful creators and

this content that makes us feel better

about the world when we really needed

it. We needed to feel better about

America and Waffle House and how

wonderful Norwegians and the Scottish

are. Go team Scotland against Brazil. It

could happen tomorrow night.

>> Um, that is the best cultural story

unfolding right now. The biggest story

that will that's taking place right now.

You're going to see that the predictions

markets have a scary [ __ ] amount of

betting on the World Cup right now,

mostly from young men whose prefrontal

cortisees is very immature and are prone

to addiction. I think that's the biggest

story playing out right now. You're

going to see that one-third twothirds of

young men in the United States bet on

the World Cup and you're going to see

Poly Market and Khi basically show the

kind of numbers that get Goldman and JP

Morgan saying we're ready to go public.

That's the biggest story.

>> We did see of course Zuckerberg waiting

into it.

>> He's going to start a predictions

market.

>> He is which is called Arena which I mean

did he ever have an idea he thought of

himself that he didn't the thieve?

>> Yeah, but that's the key to shareholder

value. the innovator, the first iPod,

the first computer, the first social

media network. Who's on MySpace? I mean,

it's it's the second mouse that gets the

cheese. Apple's

>> Well, do you do you imagine? Because he

tried it in a number of ways. They tried

to do a dating service. Do you remember

the Facebook dating service that

>> didn't go anywhere or the Facebook this,

the Facebook that? Is this a good area?

you're just it's an important area right

now, but they're also under enormous

scrutiny by even in the by US standards,

they're under enormous scrutiny in the

US. All these markets, they're getting

push back all across the world from a

regulatory point of view. And then Mark,

whose reputation is just even this week

got even more tarnished. We talked about

it on the last episode because Trump

essentially called him a sucker. Um he

did. He did essentially um and was

accurate. Um, and do you think it's a

great time to wade into this area for a

company like Facebook or do you think

these are inevitable companies that

these that are happening?

>> Yeah, I think so. If I were the head of

corporate development at Meta, I would

take a 2 to 3% dilution and take a 40

to$60 billion flyer on either Ky or Poly

Market as opposed to trying to compete

with them and go from letter A to F. But

we use the term innovation really

promiscuously in terms of shareholder

value. It's not the innovator. The

innovator and the pioneers get mud on

their face and arrows on their back.

It's the number two. Apple has never

invented anything. What they do is they

come in and they commercialize it and

they do a better job of it. Uh if I were

Meta and I'm not and I would be rushing

to get things done before a Democrat

takes the White House and actually

starts trying to break up companies,

which is what we need to bring

affordability down as the rents being

charged on advertisers and consumers and

parents gets higher and higher as we let

these companies consolidate with no

regulation.

But I would I would be looking at

everything and if I wanted to get into

that market, I would pick up one of

those two players for 20 to 60 billion,

which at this point would be a minor

dilution.

>> Is it a particularly good thing for

their corporate image to go into an area

that's under it? It's clearly going to

be under attack in the next two years.

>> I don't think they give a [ __ ] I don't

think they're worried about their image.

>> Yeah, I don't.

>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, there's, as we sit

here, there's a bunch of 14-year-old

girls self- cutting because of Cheryl

Samberg's business model.

>> And too much.

>> Yeah.

>> Uh, so I don't I don't I think they're I

think they're very willing to endure

hits to their image. I don't think

that's their first priority.

>> So, they will go, this is an area they

should go into.

>> Their image, the only thing that [ __ ]

matters is Mark Zuckerberg keeps

delivering unbelievable shareholder

returns. That's the only image that

matters in a capitalist America with no

regulation. And we can sit here and talk

about purity tests. No one gives a [ __ ]

>> All right. Well, in Europe, let me just

let they're trying to break up uh US big

tech. Here in France, the budget

minister called for a country to break

free of American systems. Sort of on

trend with the Europeans feeling the

American century is over, which I think

is very clear. They've stepped up in

Ukraine. They've sort of pulled away

from the US. You have Georgia Maloney

every day insulting Trump, which is

really enjoyable. Um uh and the EU just

rolled out a new sovereignty package to

boost homegrown tech. A very difficult

thing to do. Google, Microsoft, and

Amazon control 70% of Europe's cloud

market and 80% of European software

spend goes to US companies. Um you know,

it also has to deal with these climate

goals that they have in data center. Uh

a lobbyist say European's power grid

isn't ready to fuel advanced AI

infrastructure. We'll need to lean on

new gas plants to stay competitive,

which is a big issue in the United

States. and actually gaining enormous

amount of traction with voters 100%. Um,

Europe's biggest techs uh want to say in

shaping EU policy, a new group called

the European Tech Creators is pushing

the EU to cut red tape, loosen merger

rules the way the US and China cut back

theirs. Um, is that something you see

happening? This is not the direction

Europe had gone in and has had much less

success. Obviously, all these US

companies, whether it's Open AI or or or

Anthropic, are all US all the latest

basket of them, whether they're going to

make it or not, are US companies.

>> Yeah. So, America used to be the uncle

who showed up who was obnoxious. He

showed up to the European, you know,

picnic. Obnoxious, but nice. Paid for

your kids tuition. Generally, heart was

in the right place. Now, the uncle's

showing up. He's on meth and he's doing

his karate moves and he's hitting on

and he's hitting on underage girls at

the park. I mean, we are we have become

so unreliable and quite frankly just

gross that the EU has finally come to

the realization we can't count on this

guy any longer.

>> And it can go one of two ways. The good

way is that they figure out a way.

Germany or I think 30 40% debt to GDP.

Uh Netherlands, they need to probably go

into some deficit spending, ramp up

their technology investment in their own

military, support their own companies.

Mistral vertical aerospace. Daniel E is

in a big investor in a European defense

company. I think that would be good. If

they use this as yet another excuse to

slow down their thoroughbreds with

overregulation, which is what Europe

does, you'll great be righteous, worried

about the environment and we'll kick

your ass from a shareholder standpoint.

And that's the story of Europe.

Thoughtful regulation that gets in the

way of every company killing it. And

America makes the mistake of

underregulating. Europe makes the

mistake of overregulating and you'd

rather be the former because then you

have the capital and the strength to

fund a navy when you do get a good

leader in place. Economic growth, I mean

it's kind of everything. You have to

have the UK has its heart in the right

place, super smart, and they can't do

any of the [ __ ] because the economy is

not growing. So there's a medium if they

use it as an excuse to support to force

companies to purchase their own models

support Europeanborn native internet

e-commerce AI companies defense

companies great if they use it as yet

another excuse to increase regulation

where talented entrepreneurs and capital

just shrug their arms in the

>> Is it even possible at this point

because these companies are sort of

barreling to IPOs despite the fact that

for example SpaceX has really taken yet

another fall. We talked on Monday about

this, but it took a it took a decent

fall again.

>> It's still up from the IPO. It's trading

at 120 times revenues. We kill for their

problems.

>> Yeah, I get that. But do you see it um

is there a way to catch up in any way

for other parts of the world to do so?

or are these the companies that will

>> Well, Europe Europe has some great

companies and I'm actually in my

prediction I'm going to talk about I

think the hottest IPO of the digital of

this month is actually going to be a

European company and I'll talk about

that on predictions. Look, they have

some they have some great companies. The

I do think there's going to be a lot of

talent.

The team with the best players wins and

I think you're going to see a trend

where the most talented people in Europe

used to have one goal. Get out. It's

like my homeland or my father's

homeland, Scotland. My dad used to joke,

what are the most talented people in

Scotland have in common? They left. And

I do think that the rivers of flow of

human capital benefit Europe right now.

I think there's a lot of people are

thinking, you know what, maybe I'll put

off going to the Bay Area. Maybe I'll

put off going to the Gulf. Uh moving the

most the youngest, talented, most

aggressive, ambitious people used to get

to the biggest city in their nation,

then to London, then to San Francisco or

New York. I think a lot of human capital

and financial capital is going to come

back to Europe because of lifestyle. And

two, because Europe has been left for

dead, the valuations are really low.

>> So they're low. So you can take

advantage of this, but they've got to

have a government that gets out of the

way in some fashion. Although not to the

extent that ours does, presumably

>> there's got to be a sweet spot. We've

gone too far to free markets. The EU is

way too over. I mean, the European

Union, it's not a union. And it's a

disunion where nobody has control but

everyone has veto authority,

>> right?

>> And it creates just

it supposedly takes about there's a

measure of how long it takes to start a

company to get all the filings, the

permits, hire people. It takes 6 weeks

in the US. Supposedly it takes 16 months

in France. I mean that's just a problem,

right? So I I think there's a sweet

spot. Although I I I do think in the US

there is push back coming whether it's

you know Elon Musk threatening Roana

over normal statements about USAD to

what's what happened in New York mani

there's a real push against a lot of

this billionaire power unfettered

capitalism that's coming I think hard

and fast and they're starting to win

elections they're starting to have have

a say and you know you wouldn't normally

see a politician like Roana push back

against Elon Musk at this point given

well he's Maybe he's not a trillionaire

right now. He came down to 996

billion dollars. Um, which I feel bad

for the guy. Um, but one of the things

that I do see coming is a massive amount

of payback to these guys. I just see it.

I see it everywhere you go. And I think

they're not going to be able to attack

Trump in the same way they might like

to, but this is going to be their

vehicle of attack is these guys as as

and and these companies are going to be

in a world of hurt. And you'll see

you're seeing push back from Disney to

the Trump administration. You're seeing

push back from politicians like Row.

You're seeing you're seeing push back

all over the place by average citizens

across and you're seeing winning by

Democratic socialists around this

billionaire issue. Um that I think is

really growing in a way that is

significant. And when the Democrats come

back, if it's if they sort of shove the

old Democratic establishment to the

side, there's, you know, a lot of the

Republicans or a lot of the tech people

don't think there's going to be payback,

but I do feel like there probably is.

>> I, you know, I hope so. I I think the I

think since the 80s, America has been

obsessed with how to create wealth.

>> I think the next 10 years, the dominant

conversation is going to be what do you

do with wealth? Yeah. And what are the

expectations of wealth? and tax policy.

I mean, we talk about rich versus poor.

I don't think that's right. I've talked

a lot about young versus old. I'm not

sure that's right. I think the

conversation is going to be around

entrance versus incumbents. If you

already own assets, if you already have

a company that's weaponized regulation,

if you already own a home, if you

already have a college degree, there's

been this unhealthy zeitgeist among the

incumbents to create scarcity such that

entrance can't get a house, can't get a

college degree, can't get out of the

crib and get customers because the

incumbents have weaponized government to

basically make it impossible for

entrance.

>> And the entrance, who typically are

younger, middle class, are just fed up.

Although it was interesting, there's an

interesting story in the New York Times

this week. It was a column that I

thought was great talking about, let me

be more educated than you are, Socrates.

Um, and what was happening in

>> He's playing tonight at Spotify now.

>> You love me.

>> I do. You love the sadly. Sadly, sadly,

it's the worst relationship of my life

and my finest. Uh,

>> come on.

>> No, it's true. It's true. I do. I have

weird affection. Someone literally came

up to me.

>> I'm so your bottom. This is what's

happened to me here.

>> Everyone laughs and I go, "Wait, am I

supposed to laugh?

>> You need to stop objectifying me,

Scott."

>> Okay.

>> Um, someone came up to me last night and

literally just went like this,

>> Scott,

how do you do it? And I was like, I I

like him.

>> Like, so do I. That woman said, so do I.

It was weird, but

>> Was it Emily Roakoski? You can be

honest.

>> No. Yeah,

>> she's been asking about me, right?

>> Never in your life will that ever

happen.

>> She's playing that game, right?

>> You know what?

>> I'm going to do something about her.

>> She's playing that game, right?

>> No, she's she's probably called security

on you at this point. Anyway, in any

case, the point I was making was that

the the they had these issues back in

ancient times where the where the

oligarchs and the the the the regular

people, the the the equality got out of

control in a way that was really

significant. And that's exactly when you

had push backs and push backs and push

from both sides. And I think we are

absolutely at that time. And I don't

think it's particularly helpful to say,

you know, eat the rich, but there is a

real movement in our country that is

significant. You again, New York

elections are New York elections, but it

says something um when there's push

back. So, we'll see what happens. Um I

I'm not worried for them, but they're

going to have to uh armorplate their

Teslas at some point if it starts to get

ugly. And there is going to be an ugly

moment unfortunately for them. And I

think it's just it's inevitable if they

continue to sort of take everything and

damage everything in the thing.

>> Look, I that's a nice story. I I hope it

comes true. I hope we see the

manifestation of that at the ballot box.

But the reality is I think Donald Trump

is going to sleep well and die of Mara

Lago and and I think Bezos and all these

guys are going to have really nice

lives. And I think we've just got to

decide what we want moving forward. But

the notion that they're going to pay a

price for this, money buys you a lot of

protection.

>> Well, it does. We'll have to see what

happens. But I'm I'm really interested

in US elections coming up. All right,

let's take a quick break. We come back,

we'll talk about Hollywood's

record-breaking year.

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Scott, we're back. We're live at AdWeek

House at Con Lions.

Um,

we're officially uh we're officially in

the summer movie season and Hollywood is

hitting new heights, which is really

interesting. Toy Story 5 just opened to

$312 million globally. Total domestic

box office year is estimated 4.46

billion, the highest since 2019. It's

recovered. It is not.

>> And you predicted this.

>> Yes, I did. Lots of movies brought in

the big bucks. Project Hail Mary,

Michael, The Devil Wears Prada, which I

am starring in. Plus, lowbudget horror

movies, Back Rooms, and Obsession, and

they're becoming blockbusters, but

they're it's the first movie since ET

where the where the box office is moved

up. And I noted my son went to see both

these movies, and he's not gone to the

movies since I took him to Toy Story 3,

I think, at that point.

um talk about this trend because pe

these theaters these movie it's actual

mover movie movie theater experience it

it's a range of movies it's not these

these big big blockbuster it's not an

Avenger movie it's it's though there's

one of those coming it's a lot of um I

would say smaller movies in a lot of

ways and they seem to have been really

spurring people not just to go to the

movies and of course story 5 is five is

the fifth one and it's apparently why

it's the fifth

>> the fifth Yes. George Story 5. Yes.

Anyway, um what what do you uh what do

you make of this and how right was I

about this situation?

>> You called this um

>> you went like this. That's ridiculous.

>> Well, the question is is it a is it a

trend or is it a dead cap bounce? So,

look, the movie industry to be fair,

some of the best performing stocks in

media are actually theater stocks.

Cinemark and IMAX are up. theaters at 40

and 45% respectively in the last 12

months. The theater business is becoming

like airlines. There's Southwest and

JetBlue which is streaming. That's

Netflix serves you content for 30 cents

an hour. That's an incredible deal. And

then there's Emirates and Qatar Airlines

in Singapore. That's IMAX. That's an

incredible experience. Uh the guys in

the middle like AMC or Delta United are

getting crushed. So people are willing

to spend 20 or 30 or 40 bucks to go to

IMAX or have a really like I love IPIC

although that just went bankrupt but

they want an experience or they just

want 30 cents an hour and reasonably

good content but it the I mean the other

biggest trend culturally right now is

IRL coming out of co people probably

lost somebody

>> uh people do have disposable income the

economy has been fairly strong and

people want to get out and touch grass

and and I think they're just having a a

really healthy gag reflex over

isolation.

>> Yeah, I do think there's a gag reflex

over social media and everything else.

all the it's really it's interesting

Gary Vaynerchuk here now says analog is

in uh versus which I was like no [ __ ]

Sherlock it's really but the idea of of

the the idea that this pushing away I

have long thought that social media is

going to decline rather precipitously

especially among young people and become

more of a you know because you're

starting to see tech companies like

Google just invested in A24 which I

thought was in everyone lost their minds

in Hollywood they thought they were

going to pull their data I think they're

using it to try to figure about how to

do better storyboarding, how to use AI,

and how to figure out how to change the

movie making process, which isn't such a

bad idea to use those tools. Although

Hollywood does have a gag reflex to all

of these things in favor of these in

real life cinema experiences.

Yeah, I think both can be true because

if you look at I don't understand I

people go on Instagram to find out about

a yogurt store they'll spend 40 minutes

in line for. So that's a combination of

the two things. The downside to the IRL

trend is the following and that is I

mean there's a couple things. You're

about to see tables in Mkos and Aitha

increase 40 50% of price this summer

because there's about to be 12,000 new

millionaires in the Bay Area through

Anthropic, SpaceX, and Open AI. And if

you're a 36-year-old who got a CS degree

from Carnegie Melon, quite frankly,

haven't had, you know, you weren't

didn't have the most social capital in

high school, quite frankly. and you wake

up and you've been broke and you've been

paying your student loans and you wake

up after the IPO and you're worth $11

million. You're not going to Disneyland.

You're going to aa and you're seeing

black coffee. The flush of douchebag

money about to roll over about to roll

over Europe this summer is going to be

just frightening. And the other thing

that's really kind of sad about this is

the reason why these concerts and these

music festivals can charge 2, three,

five grand for VIP tickets is because 20

and 30omes, when I was 20ome and 30ome,

you know what I was doing with all my

money? I was saving for a house. And I

worry that 20 and 30omes have just

stopped saving for a house. They've just

given up. They're like, "Okay, we're not

going to save 200 grand for a house.

Houses are $2 million homes are $2

million. I'm going to Coachella.

>> Yeah, the smaller houses are a million.

>> Yeah.

>> I'm sorry.

>> Yeah. Your point being

>> Oh, my Well, these were just fascinating

trends about in real life, Cara.

>> All right. Okay. Um, in any case, what

does that mean? Because one of,

>> you know, I exposed myself to you

emotionally and you jab.

>> Yes, I do.

>> You jab.

>> I was still on douchebags with money in

a visa because you're the only person I

know that goes to a visa. Um but um

he's having a fantasy moment. I pay for

everything.

>> What do you say to like a

>> I love drugs. I love alcohol.

>> We're going to get questions from you

all.

>> Who would want to roll with me in a

beast? Seriously,

>> that's right. Meet you there.

>> Yeah, I absolutely would not. Um so

>> she literally texts me like, "Where are

you?

>> Where are you? What are you doing? Where

are you? What are you doing?"

>> No, I said I'm downstairs

and I will not be coming upstairs. my

favorite actress.

>> He just made a Paris Hilton joke that

was gross. Just try not to ignore it.

So, um

>> seen that movie 10 12 times.

>> Okay. All right. In any case, um is I

think a lot of the tech companies really

are moving into media, not necessarily

in the nefarious ways that they are also

moving into media. But Instagram wants a

spot in your streaming lineup. The app

is testing horizontal video, long form

content, episodic series, which I think

is really interesting. I just met with

some Instagram people recently in

they're also reaching out to creators

which they were doing in my case to

start making not micro dramas but what

what what is the stuff you want to make

short serialized episodes of 1 to 3

minutes each which was a trend many

moons ago and didn't really work out if

you recall a bunch of creators were

trying to do that and obviously Quibby

was the other one is this sort of back

again do you think it'll succeed at this

point

>> well the clip economy whatever you want

to call it huge trend And I I don't know

about you, I'm absolutely I hate to

admit it, I'm absolutely addicted to

Instagram reels and it's I think it's

become my primary source of information.

>> Me, too. Yeah.

>> Uh I think the algorithm is incredible.

>> So, do you think they can take it to the

next step to create mini dramas? Because

it didn't work the first several times.

This is the third.

>> I just don't think you ever I hate to

say that. I just don't think you ever

bet against Mark Zuckerberg. I I'm I

find I used to think Tik Tok was going

to disrupt meta. Now I find myself

spending less time I don't know about

you. This is false marketing on Tik Tok

and more time on reals. I think they'd

look at it and said I think Mark says he

looks at him and says that's amazing.

Steal it. Steal it and then make it

better and then point our billion and a

half person fire hose at it. And

>> so if you're marketers here, where do

you start to point stuff at

entertainment? It's there, right? It

continues to be there. That's going to

be entertainment.

It's a hard one because any business

dependent upon Alphabet, unless you're

the creator, if you try and get in the

middle, your margin is their

opportunity. 10 years ago, some of the

biggest firms here and houses were SEO

companies. And then Alphabet said the

whole point of our technology is we

eventually make you obsolete. So, I I'm

very reticent. uh you know if you're a

creator and you can displace Comcast or

ABC or A&E with with one of these

platforms that will give you a greater

share revenue. I think YouTube does that

pretty well.

>> Yep.

>> But any business banking on

>> um you're interviewing Meredith uh Levin

tonight, the CEO of New York Times. Uh I

don't know if you know this host on the

port of the New York Times.

>> Um but we owned something called

about.com and it was worth a billion

dollars. And then one night our revenues

were down 60%. Because Google did some

panda thing and basically just crushed

our traffic. So a decent test anyone

should ask themselves is what percentage

of our revenue and margin is dependent

upon one of these platforms because

they'll they'll keep you in business

just long enough until you get real

margin and then they'll come for you. So

it anyways I'm I'm droning on here. I

think it's situational but I think these

guys are basically in the business of

just finding except for the creators.

It's they they you know they do some

there but I wouldn't want to be in a

business focused ever on these platforms

>> on these platforms but that's exactly

where it's going. This is the first time

I've thought about creating stuff not

you know I just did this television show

but now I'm thinking how would I do it

not with any of the regular TV entities

like what would be the way to make say

if we decide to make a pivot television

show for example what is a television

show going forward and that's something

I'm thinking about a lot

>> well it would be on yeah you're right it

would be on YouTube with clips and but

if you look at why is podcasting drawing

so much talent right now and growing so

fast

>> it's not your looks So go ahead.

>> When we first started our

>> an easy one,

>> so I'm very

>> That was a layup. So when we um started

this podcast almost 8 n years ago, um

and I'm very transparent about

economics. I think rich people not

talking about their money is nothing but

an effort to suppress the middle and the

lower class. Rich people talk about

their money all the [ __ ] time. Start

talking about money. Anyway, um when I

first started on Pivot, I got 15% of the

revenue because the means of production,

a company with capital and a studio, I

used to go into that lame studio on

Broad Street and they knew how to do

podcasts and it was technology and union

people and and so the means of

production, whether it's MSNBC or CNN or

podcast back then meant that the talent

got 15%. You probably got more. You were

the star. But now talent on podcast gets

70%. Cuz the means of production just

doesn't have the power.

>> Yeah.

>> That's effectively the arbitrage that's

taking place across all media is the

means of production is being arbitrageed

and getting out of the getting people

out of the middle such that creators

with great content and the end consumer

can enjoy. Podcasts are 80% of a

television show for 5% of the production

cost. Absolutely.

>> So there's opportunity for advertisers

and creators. And the example I always

use is Cole Bear. 60 million in revenue,

100 million in costs. A band, a theater,

unions everywhere, makeup artists, five

people on the guest booking team.

It made60 million was not economic. He's

going to go to a podcast. He'll take

he'll six people will make it onto the

podcast arc. He'll do 20 million his

first year and it'll cost 4 million to

produce. So that's a pretty good deal

for Stephen.

>> Yeah, if that Absolutely. All right,

we're going to go on a quick break. We

have one more thing to talk about um

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15% off. Okay, Scott, we're back with

more news. Um, the World Cup right now,

um, as you said, there's going to be a

lot of gambling and markets are worry,

but what do you imagine the the effect

of World Cup will be going forward? What

do what is your thoughts on where where

what what what are the takeaways from

doing that? Because it really is, I

think, the most important, as you said,

economic story right now across the

globe.

>> Yeah, I I I don't have any real insight

other than what I said. I think I think

I think the world and the west needed a

reason to like each other again and

recognize

that Americans distinct of our

leadership are an interesting, loving,

kind people with really fattening but

wonderful food and that Europeans and

the all these nations have incredible

cultures and they bring a little taste

of that culture. you're going to see the

prices of teams go up and even I go back

to the wealth creation of these these

companies that just went public that

probably took the price of these

companies going up because sex drives

everything and if you're a 45-year-old

who quite frankly never got laid in high

school you're trying to figure out a way

to become the sexist man in Cleveland

and the way you do that is by buying the

Cleveland Browns and so all of a sudden

there are a ton of people who want to

own sports teams right now that have

capital so you just saw the price of

every shitty football, cricket team,

whatever, go up 20, 30%. SpaceX up went

up up 20%, the price of most sports

teams globally went up 30 or 40 because

you're going to have midlife crisis

money, which is irrational, chasing

trophy assets.

>> Very excellent. All right, last thing

prediction and then we'll get questions

from the audience.

>> The my prediction is the following. The

biggest IPO of this the biggest tech IPO

of this month in terms of first day pop

is not SpaceX. It's actually a European

tech media company that's pricing next

week. Does any This is a test. Any

guesses?

>> Bending Spoons.

>> Bending Spoons. Bending Spoons is

essentially the Berkshire Hathaway of

beloved but forgotten internet brands.

Uh Evernote, Eventbrite, AOL,

um

>> Vimeo, We Transfer,

>> Meetup, all of these companies that were

supposed to be the next Airbnb or

>> they were all the unicorns of the year.

all the unicorns, super fat, and then uh

this company out of Italy comes and buys

them, consolidates the back end, which

is a polite way of saying cuts costs

dramatically, increases their prices. A

lot of these companies have very strong

margin power and um uh consumer loyalty.

Uh Q1 2025, 20

uh what was it? um

270 million 120 million losses this

quarter, 625 million, 28 million in

profits. They're getting a ton of

momentum. It's essentially, you know,

>> it's orphans brought together in one.

>> It's it's it's orphaned internet

companies with a lot of margin power

that have been forgotten and they're

rolling it up. And this is a call back

to the most profitable disruptive

company that used to own can. This is a

call back to WPP that used to buy

companies for seven times EBIDA uh cut

costs on the back end uh reduce keyman

risk so to speak and then take it to the

public markets at 12 times EBIDA. I

think this is an incredible company.

It's out of Italy which is interesting.

Really good human capital. And there's

about a thousand of these companies that

never quite made it across the goal

line. And the most fascinating thing

about their numbers is 88% of their

revenue is recurring revenue. All of

these companies are subscription. So

basically, this is SAS meets Berkshire

Hathaway. I like the fact that it's out

of Italy. I like the fact that it's not

AI. Uh

>> so it's just a simple cleanup.

>> Two and a half billion. Two and a half

million in revenues. It'll go out at 7

to eight times revenues. I think this

company will have the largest pop of any

internet tech IPO of of the month.

That's pricing next week.

>> It's a classic is what's happening here.

Well, it's it's it's essentially there's

a value in these brands. They still have

very loyal audiences. Yeah. And they

were also they also grew up in a time

where capital is cheap. So, quite

frankly, there's a lot of fat to cut.

>> And these this these guys are executing

like crazy. And once they have a public

stock, think about how big the list is

of companies that were once hot and

they're still good companies. Yeah.

>> And they spent billions of dollars of

venture capital aggregating audiences.

>> Yeah. like Red Envelope for example.

>> Oh, sorry.

>> Why are you so hostile?

>> Jesus Christ.

>> No, that was a good company. I sort of

got

>> Yeah, thanks for that.

>> It was it was a good idea.

>> You can have the kids every other

weekend. So,

>> no, but there are a lot of value in a

lot of these companies.

>> Anyway, my prediction is the biggest IPO

in terms of first day pop is going to be

a European the Bergkshire Hathaway

forgotten internet brands and that's

this company called Bending Spoons that

I had not heard of until two weeks ago.

I'm kind of fascinated with it.

>> Anyway, all right, questions from the

audience. Hi, Kim McKenzie from Ladies

to Strategize. Um, so you guys often

talk about Poly Market.

>> Mhm.

>> Do you think that it's going to be used

as a legitimate polling data and

predictions for the new US election and

should it legitimate? How so? I mean,

people are on it, so you can't really

stop it. I I think people pay it. It's

one of these things during elections. US

people go and stare at them for a minute

and then they go away from them. I think

it's being used more as opposed to going

to all the there was a bunch of others

that people would go to all the

different polling accumulation sites. I

think Scott's been very negative on

polling. I think a lot of these

prediction markets are easily gamed and

so I worry about their their their

reality, but they often do reflect

sentiment, right? So I think it's just

one of those other signals you have to

get, but I definitely pay attention to

them more than I should and I know

they're gamed in some fashion. I think

they're also easily manipulated by a

wealthy person, say named Elon Musk, who

has enormous amounts of funds that he's

going to put towards the midterms to

create all manner of confusion. And so

that's the real danger in it. I'm not

sure voters pay attention to it. Like I

just don't I don't know if voters spend

a lot of time. I think a lot of the

pundit class certainly does.

>> Uh I use Cali all the time for and I

find I think polling firms that are

non-qualitative are basically out of

business. Uh Khi has never gotten an

interest rate cut wrong. They have

predicted every single Fed action 100%.

Um I totally rely on the prediction

market, specifically KHI for because

there's something about pundits saying

what they think is going to happen and

then looking at where people actually

put money that if you really want to

know how someone feels, see where

they're spending their money.

>> Uh so I think they're I think they are

in I'm fascinated by the data. I think

they're incredibly accurate in on

>> but they have to self-govern themselves

more because they're because the

government's coming after you're seeing

all these different arrests and so if

they don't self-govern sort of the

gaming that goes on I think it's going

to be a they're going to sort of shoot

themselves in the foot in that regard.

>> Yeah.

>> There's case after case of someone doing

something funny.

>> Yeah. I I hope you're right. That's the

right thing. The internet is littered

with companies that were supposedly

going to be regulated.

>> Yeah.

>> That were doing

>> I mean we'll see. I I I I hope

>> they tend to want to go after these

companies. You've noticed a lot more

action very quickly as opposed to bigger

social media companies right away.

>> But the amount of big back end the

amount of money we're going to find out

in two weeks the amount of money being

wagered on these markets around the

World Cup.

>> Yeah. Huge.

>> Staggering.

>> Staggering.

>> It's going to be bigger. It's going to

be bigger than what was g what was gamed

in Vegas during the same period.

>> Yeah. I think more than five billion

dollars already been traded on the World

Cup outcomes across those two platforms.

Enormous. Next question. Uh, just right

here.

>> Hello.

>> Hi.

>> Hi.

>> Great episode. Uh, Ted from the agency

advertising agency Park and Battery.

Quick question. I love your unvarnished

opinion on this. Do you see a big next

act from some of the CEOs that were

pushed out? I'm thinking Adam from Wei

Work, Travis from Uber, and they've gone

on to do their own thing. But given all

the dynamics and excitement, you know,

that we've been seeing and talking about

today, you see uh a big next act from

them and similar former CEOs.

>> I mean, they've tried like Adam's tried

with that rental weird [ __ ] thing. I

don't know what that is. He

>> It's actually done okay. Flow.

>> Okay. Yeah. I mean, they're fine. And

Travis has done his ghost kitchen thing

and now he's doing

>> robotics.

>> Robotics. Something around robots.

They're going to try. I think most of

these people don't have a second act.

They just sort of wander around and

pontificate. That's been my experience.

Um, they had one great moment. Um, often

fueled by anger and then they don't

really There's very few that have double

acts that I've I've seen. I can't Can

you think of one? Someone who like got

sort of turned around and then came

back. I think they get rich, happy,

they've surround themselves by enablers

who violently agree with them at all

times and saying you got, you know, you

got screwed, you know, or Caris wish it

was mean to you like or something. you

were right the whole time. And I think

they just don't mo most of them don't

learn from their mistakes and they don't

and that's the way you develop the next

thing to me. But that's

>> the the the good money is on no because

a couple things happen. one

one out of seven companies works is so

much has to go right for the company

just probability that if you nailed it

and so many moons lined up for your

success you're kind of due for them not

to line up. It is really hard to repeat.

Really hard because so many things have

to line up. And the other thing is the

majority of great artists stop can't,

you know, they slip in the shower when

they're 24 and they have a hit song and

then they hit 30 and it just all stops

because you have kids, because your

brain changes, because you start

evaluating risk. All of a sudden, you

stop

thinking crazy and you have the

guidelines of societal norms. You're not

working 18 hours a day because you're

rich and you don't need this [ __ ] and

you want to spend time with your kids.

So, the mojo and the creative genius

that's [ __ ] I mean, who told Michael

Jackson to grab his crotch with a

glitter glove? I'm telling you,

40-year-old fathers don't think that

way. It's just so you you lose that

creative craziness. You lose some mojo.

And just statistically speaking to

repeat, I've started nine businesses.

I'm generously three, four, and two. And

all of them seem like great ideas at the

time. And more of it than anything was

just luck and timing. And it's very hard

to hit the lottery twice. So the good

money is usually on no.

>> Yeah. I think most of the people that

succeed are the like Zuckerberg

continues to excel like or cook whatever

you think of the golden statue continued

to excel. the people that stay at the

companies tend to like um Sacha Nadella

like you've seen like that kind of

thing. I don't see a lot of new rebirth.

There's not many Rolling Stones out

there. I would say I would say

>> yeah. Uh right here.

>> Uh good day. The name's David. Um I've

got a question for you US related. Um

there's a lot of news about

redistricting, um voting rights, voting

machines, yada yada yada.

>> Yeah, we've noticed that. Oh yeah, I've

noticed. Yeah.

>> So, what's your prediction of how that

will impact the elections? I'm asking on

behalf of the world.

>> Well, I think a lot,

>> you know, it's I would agree. I I have I

I I I read a lot about I'm not an expert

in this area, but I from what I

understand, the Republicans have vastly

overreached in this area, and it's not

working, and they may live to regret

their efforts. I don't think people like

it. I don't think voters like it. That

said, it's they've done a lot of like

we've created all these partisan like

the if there's a chart of partisan, you

know, purple areas and blue and red and

it's like there used to be a lot of

purple. Now there's not a lot of per

they've managed to do it and I and then

of course the Democrats reacted

correctly to try to mute it in

California and everything else, but

that's not the way you want to go,

right? You want these districts. And so

I I think I believe in Scott. I don't

know how Scott feels about that. I

believe in voters. I think they

ultimately push back and I think the

Republicans have started to see some

real losses in some of these

redistricted areas and you'll seeing a

lot more. There was a story in the

Washington Post this week about the

enthusiasm of Democratic voters. Even if

they're not enthusiastic about

Democrats, they're they're turning out

more. And Republicans are kind of dis

they are disgusted with Trump. You know,

they really are. He's losing base after

base after base. until it's finally kid

rock and that lean Greenwood guy like

essentially um he can't get entertainers

to go he he's losing Latinas Latinos

he's losing all vast young men for sure

um he's losing all the stupid comics so

I I don't I don't know if it's going to

work but it's not a good thing redist

there's three things I think have hurt

our country more than anything one is

gerrymandering two is Fox News and the

third is social media if I had to pick

the three things so

Yeah, I would I would add I would add

Citizens United in there. Look, the

vibes are really good right now for

Democrats and for push back on Trump. Uh

you know, he's I think the least second

least popular president at this point.

>> No, he was the least he was the least

effective.

>> Least um the So things look good. Uh

gerrymandering and just taking a grid

and placing it over America or dejerry

mandering is a great talking point and

what happened for this election. The X

factor is the following. This is what I

think happened uh in the last couple

months. I think Elon Musk called

President Trump and said, "If you lean

on the SEC chair and the NASDAQ to

include me in the NASDAQ 100 indices,

which will create an incremental 10 to30

billion in demand for my float, which

will take my net worth up 20 to 40

billion, I'll spend 1 to10 billion on

the midterms." And there's nothing to

stop him. So I think the X factor

>> is Musk

>> is Musk because the reality is as much

as we like voters and Americans are

smart and D that the elections are kind

of won and lost in a 10% in the middle

and those people are busy and have

things to do and they're influenced by

media and the good work you do and if

you increase your net worth by 100 or

200 billion dollars because of SEC and

NASDAQ anomalies that have never been

granted to any their company and you

have a direct line to the president who

can make this [ __ ] happen. Why wouldn't

you say, "Hey boss, I'll spend $10

billion."

$10 billion is going to win a lot of He

spent he influenced the last

presidential election with $250 million.

And this is the power. This this this is

the problem. This is why throughout

history, a known known is the following.

Power corrupts and absolute power

absolutely corrupts. And in a democratic

society with network effects, money and

technology create power on a level and a

reach we've never seen before. So a

combination of Citizens United, a very

smart guy who understands technology and

a willingness to spend one, five or 10

billion in the election. Look out below.

I

>> the only thing is the quality of their

candidates is really quite bad and

that's that's a really and the some of

the Democratic candidates are very

compelling. I think has a better bench.

Um and there is an element to that. they

they've managed to pick really

unattractive, horrible people. And in

the Musk case, I do agree with him. He's

got enormous amounts of power. The thing

is a lot of reporters and others are on

to him and the more you expose him, the

more people are repelled by him and so

there is an element to take advantage of

there. The more he looks like he's

manipulating the elections, the more

people push back against it. I he he and

Trump have the the brand has gone down.

I think he more than Trump than

anything. Okay, last quick question. I

tend to get my news from Blue Sky, but

following dispersed creators in media

like Heather Cox Richardson,

>> we just had on.

>> Yes, she's amazing. Um, and Substacks

and things like that. Is there enough

reach there to actually make a dent and

and get in front of people or is that

just kind of like a losing model

subscription base and and it'll probably

go nowhere given it's a lot of

collections of little voices?

>> U the answer is yes. I I think I think

uh uh what is it? Blue note. Blue sky.

I'm sorry. I think it's a cute and

adorable and it's going to die a slow

death. Um I just don't think it's got I

think it got some early traction. This

is just vibes. I don't look at the I

haven't seen the data, but Substack I

think is a winner. Um and I do think

that these platforms

there's just too much creator content.

The most encouraging thing about creator

content right now is 50% of the ad spend

on creators is in nano or micro creators

and that is people doing little niche

things and so trust from institutions is

leaking to trust to people who go after

very the specific crowds out the narrow.

I've been watching this dad who while he

cooks talks about universal healthcare

and I just find fascinating. Uh so I I

think some of them will win. The one you

brought up, Blue Sky, I'm not I'm not um

I think it's a better brand than a

business right now. Um, but yeah, I

think there's going to be a ton of cool

little uh little niche platforms that

will likely be swallowed up by the big

players.

>> I I'll make the final comment on that.

Um, I think there the the increasing

power of all these smaller things are

going to re are really becoming very

strong at this point in terms of not

just but numbers too and people

listening and everything else. And I do

I but I do think we can't abandon

certain central uh institutions like the

New York Times or CNN or all these

things. They have to be owned and run by

people with responsibility towards

actual journalism because you can go on

and on about the Lincoln Memorial all

you want. I mean, what what's happening

at Reflecting Pool was just a fat

flatout lie by President Trump, but it

took the New York Times to actually go

and find all the data and do the

reporting. And so you that all that

depends on a thriving journalistic

community. So, it would be really great

if we could have owners of these real

journalistic institutions that aren't

incompetent, and you know who I'm

talking about in this case, but that we

we we support those and at the same time

um push all these creators. I have

helped a lot of people leave big

journalistic institutions, but they're

doing great work. And the thing is that

it's very hard to do investigative work.

It's very hard to do the really hard

reporting without the support of

institutions. And there are economic

models if we do it right that will

continue to protect that. Um, and so I'm

hoping there'll be a combination of big

institutions that figure out their

economics better, which they can, with

owners that aren't incredibly idiotic.

Um, and and then uh and then these

smaller ones that are sort of spurring

them to do so. And a collection of them,

I think, is incredibly powerful. I think

Scott and I have a lot of influence that

we never thought we'd have. But it's

beyond influence. It has to be informed

influence and reported analysis. And so

it's not just people doing takes, hot

takes all over the place because that

doesn't that doesn't tell you things.

You need real reporters on the ground

understanding what's happening and

bringing it back to people in a fair

way. Um and so I think a I do I I'm very

pro on media right now. I think it's one

of the most undervalued uh stocks. I

think it's undervalued in a lot of ways.

So, I'm hoping um that that at at some I

know there's this worries about these

billionaires taking over and quashing

them. Let them, as Mel Robbins likes to

say, because we have lots of options and

we have lots of choices. And I do think

everybody is very open to new ways of

getting information. So, they can try

their best, but they're not going to be

able to quash uh really great reporting

over a long period of time. I don't

think that, and I believe in that. Okay.

All right. Thank you guys so much.

Okay, Scott, that's the show. We'll be

back on Tuesday with more pivot. Uh,

read us out.

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