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Pulitzer Prize Historian: You Won't Notice Until It’s Too Late - Anne Applebaum

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Pulitzer Prize Historian: You Won't Notice Until It’s Too Late - Anne Applebaum

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3190 segments

0:00

This was Trump's net worth when he went

0:02

into office, $2.3 billion. And this is

0:04

his net worth now, just two years later.

0:07

$6.5 billion.

0:09

>> So, we've never had a president running

0:11

businesses while in office. And so,

0:13

decisions are being made not based on

0:15

what's good for Americans, but what's

0:17

good for his company. For example, why

0:19

did the Saudi government invest $2

0:21

billion in Jared Kushner's fund? It

0:23

wasn't because they just like Jared

0:25

Kushner. It was because Kushner is

0:27

Trump's son-in-law. And so my biggest

0:29

concern is the deterioration of American

0:31

democracy. I mean, it's already

0:33

happening. Most people think democracies

0:35

end with tanks in the street or somebody

0:37

shooting up the presidential palace, but

0:38

actually in the modern world, they

0:40

mostly end because someone who is

0:42

legitimately elected begins to take

0:44

apart the system. Trump, he has never

0:47

cared much one way or the other for

0:49

American democracy. He admires foreign

0:51

leaders who have no constraints. And I

0:53

have a goal that is to remind people of

0:56

why democracy is important and to pay

0:58

attention to the ways in which it's

1:00

declining so that we can fight back. So

1:02

we're just at the beginning of what

1:04

could be quite a big change.

1:05

>> So there's five core tactics that

1:07

autocratic leaders use to dismantle a

1:09

democracy. Could you walk me through the

1:10

five tactics?

1:11

>> So first of all,

1:16

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1:18

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2:05

Let's get on with the show.

2:10

>> An Apple Bomb, what is it you spent the

2:13

last couple of decades of your life

2:15

doing, understanding, studying, and

2:16

sharing with the world? I started out as

2:19

somebody who was fascinated by the

2:20

Soviet Union. I went there when it still

2:23

existed as a as a student. I was lucky

2:26

enough to watch it fall apart. I was a

2:28

journalist based in Warsaw at the time

2:30

the Warsaw pack came to an end. Then I

2:33

spent

2:35

some years writing history books trying

2:37

to explain how control was maintained

2:40

over such a large space uh by so few

2:43

people. But all that time, I thought

2:45

that what I was doing was writing

2:46

stories about the distant past. I was

2:49

analyzing a system that didn't exist

2:51

anymore.

2:52

What's happened to me in the last decade

2:54

is that I've discovered that a lot of

2:56

what I thought was over and done and

2:57

belonged to some other era uh has come

3:00

back. Most people think democracies end

3:03

with a coup d'eta or, you know, tanks in

3:06

the street or somebody shooting up the

3:07

presidential palace. that actually in

3:10

the modern world they mostly end because

3:12

someone who is legitimately elected

3:15

begins to take apart the system and take

3:18

away the things that ensure free

3:21

elections can continue and I started

3:24

watching that happen in multiple

3:25

countries at the same time and I saw

3:28

this authoritarian instinct started to

3:31

come back and that's what I write about

3:33

now

3:34

>> are these just election cycles or is

3:36

there something bigger at play here

3:37

because you know I spend a lot time

3:38

reading articles from decades ago or

3:41

hundreds of years ago and in all times

3:44

in history it seems that there were

3:45

problems but it seems that the I don't

3:47

know the democratic system has a

3:49

remarkable way every four years of

3:50

clearing out what people weren't happy

3:52

with and putting something new in is

3:54

this time different to the past

3:56

>> what feels different to me is for the

3:58

first time in several established

4:00

democracies most notably United States

4:02

but not only you have political parties

4:04

who come to power with the explicit idea

4:08

that they will alter the system in order

4:10

to make sure that they can stay in

4:12

forever. The pioneer of this idea was

4:15

Victor Orban in Hungary. He was elected

4:17

legitimately with a big margin and then

4:20

what he did was slowly seek to capture

4:23

the state. So what a democracy needs in

4:26

order to survive, in order to maintain

4:28

its stability, it needs a few neutral

4:31

institutions. You know, it needs

4:33

independent courts. It needs an

4:35

independent electoral commission. It

4:37

needs independent media. In the modern

4:40

world, it needs a meritocratic

4:42

bureaucracy. So, people are hired and

4:44

fired to measure pollution or worry

4:47

about traffic and road construction who

4:50

aren't cousins of the ruling party. They

4:53

aren't somebody's friend, but they're

4:55

actual experts who understand how to do

4:56

things. So you need those things to be

4:59

in place in order to ensure that each

5:01

time there's an electoral cycle, it's a

5:03

fair election. And you see people who

5:06

are elected who who once they had power

5:09

decided to take those institutions

5:12

apart. You know, if you think about

5:13

democracy, it's actually a very strange

5:16

system, right? So you win an election

5:20

and in a democracy you have to preserve

5:22

the rules so that four years from now

5:26

your bitter enemies can contest you and

5:29

maybe beat you again. You know you lose

5:32

an election, you have to say okay we're

5:34

allowing our rivals to stay in power uh

5:38

but we trust that the system will remain

5:40

fair so four years from now we can also

5:43

contest them again. So it requires a

5:45

certain level of agreement about the

5:47

nature of the system and when that

5:50

begins to break down then you begin to

5:52

have imbalances and then you begin to

5:54

have elections that seem unfair to

5:56

people and then you begin to have a

5:57

completely different kind of national

5:59

conversation and we can see that has

6:01

happened in several places and of course

6:03

most notably in the United States and

6:06

because the United States is the largest

6:09

democracy because it's played the role

6:10

of leader of the democratic world the

6:13

influence uence of America on other

6:15

countries is pretty profound. Uh and so

6:17

this this idea that democracies can

6:20

possibly break down is suddenly um both

6:23

horrifying people but also interesting

6:25

to other people who say all right if you

6:27

can do it in America you can do it here.

6:29

>> There's a part of me that just thinks

6:33

that could never happen in America. And

6:36

that's obviously a bias that I have

6:37

being 33 years old and not knowing a ton

6:39

about history. But there's I'm sure

6:40

there's lots of people that think this

6:41

is some sort of theoretical idea, but it

6:44

would never happen in America because we

6:45

would never allow America to not be a

6:48

democracy. We wouldn't allow a a Russia

6:50

situation where you've got Putin sitting

6:52

in power for two decades or whatever.

6:54

>> Sure, but there are systems in between

6:56

Russia and liberal democracy. You can

6:59

have democracies that aren't fair. And

7:02

actually, I'm afraid to tell you that in

7:03

the United States, there is a history of

7:05

that. So the in the American South

7:07

before the civil rights movement, you

7:09

very often had in effect in in the

7:11

southern states, you had these one party

7:13

states where, you know, the rules were

7:15

pretty rigged. Everybody knew who was

7:17

going to win. Not everybody was allowed

7:19

to vote. So black people weren't allowed

7:21

to vote or they were it was very heavily

7:22

restricted. It was hard for them to

7:24

vote. And that existed in the United

7:26

States, you know, between the Civil War

7:27

and the and the 1960s, you had very

7:30

undemocratic parts of the United States.

7:32

And I think some of the people who are

7:34

in Washington right now in the Trump

7:37

administration are working from that

7:39

history and from that historical memory.

7:41

>> What is your biggest concern in this

7:43

regard?

7:45

>> Well, I have two concerns. Uh, one is

7:47

that inside the United States, the

7:50

deterioration of American democracy, I

7:53

mean, it's already happening, right? So,

7:54

it's already creating a class of people

7:57

who no longer feel they have a stake in

7:59

the political system and who won't vote,

8:02

may never vote and fe and and will be

8:05

outside of politics and outside of the

8:07

national conversation. That can lead in

8:08

the direction of violence that can lead

8:10

in in all kinds of negative directions.

8:12

We see the development of new kinds of

8:16

um paramilitary in the United States

8:18

that we never had before. the

8:20

development of ICE. We've never before

8:22

had a single national police force

8:25

wearing combat uniforms, wearing masks,

8:28

not subject to the normal restrictions

8:30

of local police forces. We also have a

8:32

rise in um high-end corruption. The

8:37

president, people around him, companies

8:39

close to him seem to have access to ways

8:42

to make money and are making money out

8:44

of doing politics in a way that was also

8:46

not possible at that scale in America

8:48

before. And that's sort of one whole set

8:49

of concerns if you want to go down one

8:51

of those roads.

8:52

>> There's this map in front of us on the

8:53

table. I realize some people can't see

8:55

because they're listening, but there's a

8:57

map on the table in front of us. Could

8:58

you just explain what this map shows and

9:00

why it's significant?

9:02

>> The map shows the level of of democracy

9:04

around the world. And of course, the

9:06

thing that's immediately notable to me

9:08

is that those who made the map don't

9:09

count the United States anymore as a

9:11

liberal democracy. Mhm.

9:13

>> So at a liberal democracy, meaning a

9:15

state where, as I said, the electoral

9:17

rules are clear, where the electoral

9:20

system is set up not to favor one party

9:21

or the next, and instead it's described

9:24

as an electoral democracy, which is

9:25

somewhat less free. You see similar

9:28

systems in South America. In Europe, you

9:30

mostly still have liberal democracies.

9:32

In Australia, Japan, South Korea, you

9:34

still have liberal democracies. And then

9:36

most of the rest of the world are some

9:38

form of autocracy. Either very closed

9:42

and very repressive like China or like

9:44

Russia or they are in a democratic gray

9:47

zone. So there are states that could

9:49

really go in either direction. I mean

9:50

they're still they're still open. But

9:52

it's true that if you'd looked at a map

9:54

like this a decade ago or two decades

9:56

ago, it would have been a lot bluer than

9:58

the the blue being democracy and the red

10:01

or reddish being autocracy. So you do

10:04

see a an absolute process of democratic

10:06

decline that's been written about um by

10:09

many people over the last few years. I I

10:11

I think I believe very much that states

10:14

influence one another. People follow and

10:16

imitate and copy their neighbors.

10:18

>> Do you think it's possible that in our

10:20

lifetimes the US might become an orth

10:24

orcratic

10:26

country?

10:28

So the US could become a what I think on

10:32

this map is described as an autocratic

10:34

gray zone. So you could imagine the US

10:36

as in effect a one party state. So a

10:40

state where one political party has

10:43

control and the other just can't win

10:46

national elections. you already have

10:49

this system of we call it gerrymandering

10:51

where electoral districts are being

10:54

written in such a way as to favor one

10:56

party or the another. The effect of that

10:58

also is that once you have people who

11:00

don't really have to contest elections

11:02

anymore, then you have corruption.

11:04

Because if you're going to win anyway,

11:06

why do you have to worry about your

11:07

constituents? then you have worse

11:09

government and worse services because if

11:11

you don't have to have a an electoral

11:14

contest then you know you can pursue

11:16

your own interests. You can do favors

11:18

for businessmen who help you in other

11:20

ways. And we see this decline of

11:22

democracy already at the state level.

11:23

And of course there could be a danger at

11:25

the national level of a fixed system

11:28

that made sure only one party ever wins.

11:32

And then you would get all these

11:33

pathologies that we already have at the

11:35

state level. We're beginning to have

11:36

them uh even now. And remember, we have

11:39

right now a president who refused to

11:42

accept the result of an election in 2020

11:45

and who staged what was intended to be

11:48

an electoral coup. Uh it failed. But,

11:52

you know, the idea that he wouldn't do

11:54

it again or nobody would ever dare to do

11:56

that or nobody would block an election,

11:58

I think it's pretty naive at this point.

12:00

I mean, it happened already. Um, and so

12:04

of course it can happen again.

12:05

>> Do you think he's going to try and get a

12:07

third term in office?

12:08

>> I don't think so because I don't think

12:10

he wants one.

12:12

>> Um, but I think it's possible that

12:14

people around him will try to shape and

12:18

affect the elections in a way that makes

12:21

sure that a Republican wins

12:23

>> or maybe his his children.

12:25

>> It's very possible that one of his

12:27

children will run for president

12:28

>> because there's a way to kind of control

12:30

power in America. You know, when they

12:31

they talk about MAGA, which is, I guess,

12:33

a collection of people now. You know,

12:35

you could say Jay Vance is part of MAGA

12:36

and the kids and Trump. So, maybe they'd

12:40

want to keep it within MAGA. Maybe

12:42

that's the

12:42

>> they might or they might want to want to

12:44

keep it within the family. I mean, look,

12:46

what is MAGA now? You know, what what

12:49

what is different about Trump's second

12:50

term from Trump's first term. So, one of

12:53

the things that happened after January

12:55

the 6 after the attack on the Congress

12:58

was that many of the people who'd been

13:01

around Trump, Republicans, people who do

13:04

foreign policy, people who do domestic

13:06

policy,

13:08

left. They said, "Right, this is too

13:10

much for us. You know, we're we're

13:11

American patriots. You know, we can't

13:14

support this kind of attack on our

13:15

political system." And they departed his

13:17

presence.

13:19

But that exactly that moment that attack

13:21

on the electoral system attracted other

13:23

people.

13:24

>> So for different reasons, people who

13:26

disliked the American political system,

13:28

who don't like democracy, don't like

13:30

liberal democracy, thought it was

13:32

leading America in a leftwing direction.

13:34

Some of them have political reasons.

13:35

They were attracted to Donald Trump

13:37

because they said, "Right, this is

13:38

somebody who has the nerve to try and

13:40

overthrow the system, and we like that."

13:42

And they're they're they're not all the

13:43

same. They have different views. So

13:45

there's a tech authoritarian group who

13:48

want influence over the American

13:49

political system because it's good for

13:51

their businesses and because they don't

13:52

get the point of democracy anyway and

13:54

they think they should be in charge.

13:56

There's a a kind of Christian

13:58

nationalist group who think the United

14:00

States should not be a secular state. It

14:02

should be a Christian state and they

14:03

want to they are interested in taking

14:05

over the system um with that. And and

14:07

then there's a traditional MAGA group

14:09

who think the United States should be

14:10

run by the people who used to run it.

14:12

you know, kind of white Christian people

14:15

of a certain kind and they want to bring

14:16

the United States back in that

14:18

direction. So, they're they're different

14:19

views. Um, and they don't all agree with

14:22

each other, but they they do agree that

14:24

the system requires radical change and

14:26

that's the difference between the first

14:28

and second term. So, Trump's first term,

14:31

I think he has never cared much one way

14:34

or the other for American democracy. He

14:36

personally sees himself as someone who

14:38

should be allowed to act in any way he

14:40

wants. He doesn't like any kind of

14:41

constraint. Um he admires foreign

14:44

leaders who have no constraints, but he

14:46

was one way or another constrained in in

14:48

in his first term by the system and now

14:50

he's surrounded himself by people who

14:52

are seeking to help him avoid those

14:54

constraints. And that's that's new.

14:56

>> I think when we have these

14:57

conversations, we assume that everybody

14:59

agrees that democracy is the better

15:01

path.

15:02

>> Sure.

15:02

>> And that they understand the downsides

15:04

of an autocracy. So there are different

15:06

kinds of autocracies to be clear and

15:08

some are some are more repressive than

15:10

others. The the main thing that you

15:13

would notice the first thing that you

15:14

would notice would be the absence of the

15:16

rule of law. Rule of law means that

15:20

judges and courts and the legal system

15:22

make decisions based on the constitution

15:26

or on the laws. And in an autocracy you

15:29

have rule by law. And that means that

15:32

the law is what the person in power says

15:34

it is.

15:34

>> Mhm. And so if you did a program for

15:37

example and someone on your program said

15:40

something that was offensive to the

15:41

leader of the country, you could be

15:44

arrested and you could be put on trial.

15:47

And instead of the court saying, "Right,

15:50

we we've looked at this case and

15:51

according to the law, we have in the law

15:53

it says we have freedom of speech and

15:54

you can do whatever you want," they

15:56

could somebody could could ring up from

15:58

the Kremlin or from the White House or

16:00

from, you know, whatever is the

16:02

leadership of your country and say, "No,

16:03

actually, we want this guy in jail and

16:05

we don't care what the courts think."

16:07

Um, and that's the big difference here.

16:09

I'll tell you a real story that happened

16:10

in Hungary when Hungary was going down

16:12

the road in the direction of a one party

16:14

state. You can be the CEO of a company

16:16

and people can come and knock on your

16:18

door and they can say, "We would like

16:20

you to sell us a majority share in your

16:23

company and you say, 'N no, why should I

16:25

let you do that? I I my company, I built

16:28

it. I invested in it. I don't want to

16:29

sell it." And then, okay, so what

16:32

happens the next day? Somebody breaks

16:33

the windows of your house. A few days

16:36

later, your children are harassed on the

16:38

way to school. People who work for you

16:40

start having legal problems. this or

16:42

that, you know, some kind of mortgage

16:44

issue or some, you know, and you

16:46

suddenly your company encounters

16:48

regulatory issues. There's a tax

16:50

inspection and one by one, the state

16:53

finds a way to harass you, to harass

16:55

your company, your workers, so that

16:57

eventually you say, "Okay, I give up. I

16:59

sell and I'm leaving the country." And

17:00

this happened to somebody I know. Sounds

17:02

like um anthropic in the United States

17:04

recently where an anthropic the AI

17:06

company refused to give the United

17:09

States access to its AI under certain

17:12

conditions and then very quickly Pete

17:14

Pete Hegsth did a a post I think and

17:16

Donald Trump did a post basically saying

17:18

that they were going to restrict their

17:20

ability to work with the government.

17:23

>> We aren't used to the idea that the

17:25

government decides which companies

17:27

thrive and which ones die, you know. So

17:30

once you have an an autocratic state

17:32

that can do what it wants legally, then

17:34

it can decide which companies succeed.

17:37

It can base government contracts which

17:39

are very important in every country not

17:41

on who's the best company or not on some

17:44

kind of blind procurement process but on

17:46

who's your friend you know or or who's

17:49

donated to your political party or who's

17:52

in the case of the United States who's

17:53

invested in your company. So one of the

17:55

things that we have in the United States

17:56

for the first time ever I think is a

17:59

president who is actively doing business

18:03

in countries and in areas that are of

18:06

interest to the people he's doing

18:08

business with. So for example the Trump

18:09

family does business in Saudi Arabia. It

18:12

has a it has a deal with a a Saudi

18:14

company called um Dar Alakan which is a

18:17

sort of development company and it that

18:19

company has close relations to the Saudi

18:21

leadership. The Saudi leadership is

18:25

interested in deals with the United

18:27

States, but I mean political arrangement

18:29

with the United States and the money is

18:31

going into the Trump family coffers in

18:34

order to make a better arrangement for

18:36

the country of Saudi Arabia. So it's a

18:38

way in which because we have a declining

18:40

democracy and because we have a

18:42

increasingly kleptocratic system

18:44

decisions are being made by the

18:46

president of the United States by the

18:47

white house not based on what's good for

18:49

Americans but on what's good for his

18:51

company and that's and that if you look

18:53

at Russia that's exactly how the

18:55

political system works there if you look

18:56

at China is more complicated it's a

18:59

bigger country it's more sophisticated

19:00

but even there you have again decisions

19:04

made not for the welfare

19:07

of the Chinese people, but for the

19:10

ruling party, for the Communist Party.

19:12

>> And we have two uh jars of money here.

19:14

This was uh Trump's net worth when he

19:17

went into office, $2.3 billion

19:20

reportedly. And this is his net worth

19:23

now, just 2 years later.

19:25

$6.5 billion. Looks like being a

19:28

president is a profitable job.

19:30

>> So that has never happened before. This

19:32

is completely new in American history.

19:35

There have been presidents who there

19:36

have been whiffs of corruption around

19:37

them. There's been, you know,

19:39

presidential relatives who've tried to

19:41

trade off the president's name. But

19:43

we've never had a president running

19:45

businesses while in office. And as I

19:48

said, in such a way that the people with

19:51

whom he's doing business are are hoping

19:53

to benefit politically or or or in other

19:56

ways. And that's that's completely brand

19:58

new. And if you just back to your

20:00

original question, which is why is

20:01

democracy better? Churchill was the

20:03

person who said that democracy is the

20:05

worst system of government except for

20:06

all the others. So it's a multi-reasons

20:09

why it's flawed. You know democracies

20:11

have require an immense amount of

20:14

tolerance. There's always a lot of

20:15

cacaphony. There's a constant flux and

20:18

change that that people find

20:20

innervating. But at the very least what

20:22

democracies can do is they can force

20:25

issues like this into the public sphere.

20:27

you know, you're allowed at least in a

20:29

democracy to question whether uh this

20:32

decisions are being made in on the basis

20:34

that they're good for everybody or

20:35

they're being made for the benefit of

20:36

the president.

20:37

>> I guess supporters would say, you know,

20:39

Trump's not running the businesses

20:40

himself. It's just his kids activity

20:43

that is generating this net worth.

20:47

>> Yeah. But I mean, everybody knows that

20:49

they're his kids and you you wouldn't do

20:52

it. You know, why why did the Saudi

20:54

government invest $2 billion in Jared

20:56

Kushner's fund? It wasn't because they

20:59

just like Jared Kushner. It was because

21:02

Kushner is Trump's son-in-law. And now,

21:04

of course, Kushner is the Trump

21:06

administration's negotiator in the

21:08

Middle East. Um, so he's negotiating

21:11

with his business partners. The

21:13

appearance of conflict of interest is

21:16

overwhelming. And as I said, we've never

21:18

had in American history or I think in

21:20

recent British history, we've never had

21:22

that kind of conflict of interest so

21:25

clear at that at that high a level.

21:27

>> Do you spend much time thinking about

21:29

what's going on in the Middle East, the

21:31

wars in Iran and what in Venezuela and

21:33

the bigger picture here of what's

21:35

happening and how this might link back

21:36

to what you were saying about

21:38

authoritarian regimes. It's all very

21:40

confusing. I I feel like we went through

21:42

a period of relative peace through the

21:44

Biden era and Trump obviously ran on

21:47

this promise that he wasn't going to

21:48

start new wars. Um and we seem to be

21:50

having a lot of wars. Russia and Ukraine

21:53

still raging on doesn't seem to be

21:54

nearer to any conclusion and now there's

21:56

this war in Iran that threatens to be a

22:00

neverending war. What is what what what

22:04

>> there are several things going on. One

22:06

of them is that in declining democracies

22:09

and in historically in autocracies is

22:12

you have leaders who conduct wars as a

22:16

way of consolidating their base and

22:18

consolidating their support. Uh and so

22:20

one of the things that Trump likes to do

22:22

is if he declares a war, I believe he

22:24

had a different expectation of the Iran

22:26

war. He's using foreign policy. He's

22:28

using these fighting of wars in order to

22:30

consolidate his support at home. So

22:31

that's that's a part of what's

22:32

happening. But some of this is nothing

22:34

to do with Trump. You know, we are now

22:36

living in a world where the historical

22:39

political system, um, the one that was

22:41

built after 1945, some people call it

22:43

the liberal world order, I don't really

22:45

like that term because it sounds kind of

22:47

mushy, but the the order that has

22:49

existed since 1945, the one that was

22:52

somewhat based on the UN, that was based

22:54

on a set of rules and treaties, that

22:57

order has begun to break down. And it's

22:59

breaking down for several reasons. one

23:02

we've started to discuss already which

23:03

is changes inside the United States and

23:05

the United States was an really

23:07

important pillar of that order but it's

23:09

also breaking down because the

23:10

autocratic powers uh Russia, China,

23:14

Iran, Venezuela until recently uh and

23:17

and others have been challenging that

23:20

order for a while themselves. They

23:22

didn't like the American dominance of

23:26

you know of international politics in

23:27

the conversation. they were competing

23:29

with America at a at a strategic level

23:32

but also in what is really a war of

23:34

ideas. So let's go back to autocracy and

23:37

democracy. You know if you are the

23:39

leader of Russia or you're the leader of

23:41

China, what is the thing that is most

23:43

threatening to you? And the answer is

23:47

the language of liberal democracy. So

23:49

all this stuff that we find boring and

23:52

we're used to and you know this idea of

23:54

freedom of speech and separation of

23:56

powers and rule of law all those things

23:59

that we have come to take for granted in

24:01

our societies are a huge challenge to

24:05

the political system in Russia or China.

24:07

You know what is Putin most afraid of?

24:09

He's most afraid of a street revolution

24:12

of the kind we had in Ukraine in 2014.

24:15

So when people are standing on the

24:16

street and they have signs saying we're

24:18

against corruption, you know, we want

24:20

democracy, we want to be in the European

24:21

Union, we want to be integrated with

24:23

Europe, he's afraid of that happening in

24:25

Russia because if you live in an

24:27

autocratic state where you don't have

24:29

freedom of speech, where there is no

24:31

justice, where the government decides

24:34

what all the rules are, then those ideas

24:37

are explosive and exciting, the same way

24:38

they were in the 18th century when when

24:40

they first appeared in the Declaration

24:42

of Independence. And people can be

24:44

motivated by them. People will go into

24:45

the street for them. People will risk

24:47

their lives for them. And the autocrats

24:49

know that. And so really for the past

24:52

decade since 2013, 2014, you see them

24:57

seeking to spread those ideas to promote

25:00

them. I mean, we all know now about

25:02

Russian propaganda campaigns. We know

25:04

what Russian disinformation looks like.

25:06

There's a Chinese version, too, which we

25:07

don't see that much in English, but it

25:08

appears in in other countries. We see

25:11

them seeking to undermine democracy,

25:14

trying to spread the influence of a

25:16

different set of ideas. So the war in

25:19

Ukraine is exactly that war. The

25:22

Russians are firstly trying to destroy

25:25

Ukraine as a nation. They want it to

25:27

disappear. This is they're they're an

25:28

empire. They want Ukraine to be their

25:30

colony. And they understood perfectly

25:32

well that by challenging Ukraine, by

25:36

invading Ukraine, they were defying this

25:38

liberal world order. They were defying

25:40

the rules of post-war Europe because in

25:42

post-war Europe, there was a decision

25:44

made after 1945. We're not going to

25:46

invade each other anymore. We're not

25:47

going to have wars. Instead, we're going

25:48

to decide everything by by diplomacy.

25:51

Borders will not be changed by force.

25:53

And the Russians understood that they

25:55

were breaking that that norm. And they

25:57

invaded Ukraine. They also invaded

25:59

Ukraine because the Ukrainians were

26:00

using that language, that powerful

26:03

democratic language that we take for

26:04

granted. And Putin said, "If they can do

26:07

it in Ukraine, then people could do it

26:08

in Russia. and so I need to crush this

26:10

Ukrainian democracy movement. And so

26:12

that war really is a fault line between

26:15

the democratic world and the autocratic

26:17

world. So I think what what you're

26:18

seeing is the breakdown of an older

26:21

system that was more or less organized

26:24

around by American rules.

26:27

>> Through history, which lasts longer,

26:29

democracy or autocracy?

26:32

>> Oh, autocracies.

26:33

>> They last longer. Well, look, if you

26:34

look back in history, most human

26:35

societies in most times have been what

26:38

you would we would now call autotocracy,

26:40

but they were whatever. They were

26:40

monarchies. They were led by tribal

26:43

leaders, by warlords. There have been

26:46

very, very few liberal democracies. And

26:48

most of them have not lasted. And I

26:50

should also say the people who wrote the

26:51

American Constitution knew that. And

26:54

when they wrote it, they were reading

26:56

the history of ancient Rome. There was a

26:58

Roman Republic and it fell when it was

27:00

taken over by Julius Caesar. So, they

27:01

all knew that story. They were reading

27:03

about the Greek democracies, Athens,

27:05

which also fell. And when they wrote the

27:08

US Constitution, they were thinking, how

27:10

do we make this last? What can we put in

27:12

it to make it last? It's a longer story

27:15

whether you think they were successful

27:16

or not. But everybody who created

27:18

democracies, whether it was after World

27:20

War II in Europe, whether it was America

27:21

in the 18th century, everybody

27:23

understood that this was a fragile

27:25

system. And they tried to put checks and

27:28

balances,

27:30

you know, judicial, legislative, and

27:31

executive power. They tried to create

27:34

systems that would ward off the impulse

27:36

towards autocracy.

27:38

>> I don't know if you have the answer to

27:39

this question, but where are people

27:41

happier on average in a democracy or in

27:44

autocracy?

27:44

>> So, I have to tell you, I know a little

27:46

bit about happiness surveys, and over

27:48

and over and over again, the happiest

27:50

place in the world is Finland. Finland,

27:52

Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Scandinavia is

27:56

very happy.

27:57

>> The reasons for that may not be anything

27:59

to do with the nature of the political

28:01

system might have other sources, but the

28:03

happiness is certainly connected to

28:05

democracy. It's connected to stability

28:06

and of course connected to wealth. Just

28:09

looking at some research here. It says,

28:10

"While wealth and economic stability are

28:11

critical for happiness, regardless of

28:12

the government type, democracy provides

28:14

additional structural benefits like

28:15

participation, security, and lower

28:17

corruption that tend to lift a society's

28:20

overall life satisfaction.

28:22

>> Well, democracies by definition are at

28:25

least in theory, the state is structured

28:27

in a way to benefit everybody, right? At

28:30

least that's how it's supposed to work.

28:31

Mhm.

28:32

>> So whether it's a national health care

28:34

system or whether it's a system of roads

28:37

and railroads, you know, the state is

28:39

building things that are designed to

28:40

serve everybody in an autocracy that

28:43

doesn't necessarily happen. So in

28:44

Russia, ordinary Russians have no

28:46

influence on that decision. They have no

28:48

way of expressing their views. They

28:50

can't say what they think. They have no

28:52

ability to influence the state. They

28:54

can't say, "Well, actually, hey, we'd

28:55

like to build a hospital instead of

28:57

bombing another city in Ukraine." And so

28:59

they have very little ability to change

29:00

the system and that and that of course

29:02

creates frustration and unhappiness.

29:04

>> If that is true and this is why I asked

29:05

the question if it's better for the

29:07

people and at some degree I think if

29:10

informed people would choose it which I

29:13

think is and I say the word informed

29:14

because I I understand in a lot of these

29:16

countries where they don't have

29:17

democracy I'm now using don't have

29:19

democracy instead of having to say that

29:20

word again. They limit the access to

29:22

information so that people don't know

29:24

what they're missing out on, I guess, or

29:26

don't have those potentially disruptive

29:29

ideas. They're not exposed to them on

29:31

their on their phones or devices. I I

29:33

would think a person would choose to

29:35

live in a democracy if given the choice

29:36

and the information.

29:38

>> I would think so. Although

29:40

you know there are other you know there

29:43

there's a deep human need for a sense of

29:47

stability and security and hierarchy for

29:51

some people

29:52

>> and it's true that authoritarians seem

29:56

to offer that. You know in a democracy

29:58

you do have this constant change of

30:00

leaders. You know there's more demands

30:02

on citizens. You know you have to

30:03

participate if you care about your

30:05

country. It's not just enough to vote.

30:07

you need to be involved in politics in

30:08

some way. And autocracies, I mean, I

30:11

think falsely offer stability. And so

30:13

the the argument of the Russians and

30:16

Chinese governments and the argument

30:17

they make on in those social media

30:19

campaigns that they run inside the US or

30:21

the UK or Europe is exactly that,

30:23

authoritarianism, stability, safety,

30:26

traditional values, hierarchy. And there

30:28

are people for whom that's deeply

30:30

appealing. So I I wouldn't discount that

30:32

instinct. And when people like that are

30:34

also able to control information, when

30:36

they control the security services, when

30:38

they monopolize the use of violence,

30:40

they can be very hard to undo even if

30:43

the majority of the country wants

30:44

something different.

30:45

>> It's almost hard for me to understand

30:47

how the people in Russia are okay with

30:50

the fact that their the leader has been

30:52

there for several decades and isn't

30:54

moving.

30:55

But it's hard for us to understand

30:56

because in the UK or in America, we

30:58

there would be people on the streets.

30:59

>> It doesn't matter what they think

31:01

>> really. Well, because they have no way

31:03

of expressing what they think. There's

31:05

no such thing as public opinion or

31:08

public debate. There's no there's no

31:10

forum you can join where you can say

31:12

what you you could express your views in

31:14

a way that's fair. And and if you do

31:16

say, I think Putin should be, you know,

31:18

it's time for him to retire, you could

31:20

be arrested. And so people begin to

31:23

adjust what they think and they begin to

31:26

change their behavior because they know

31:28

that it's dangerous to say things. I

31:29

mean, this is something this is a

31:30

phenomenon I found in the work I did

31:32

years ago on the Soviet Union. The

31:34

propagandist said how successful we are

31:35

and how much hay we've grown this year

31:38

and how many bits of steel we've made

31:40

and it was always fake. And so the

31:42

question was always, well, did people

31:43

really believe that? Did people believe

31:45

in the system? Do they believe in the

31:46

propaganda? And the answer was a little

31:49

weird. It was convenient for them to

31:51

believe it. In other words, in order to

31:53

get on in life, you had to believe it or

31:55

you had to say you believed it. And at a

31:58

certain point, what they really thought,

32:00

like deep in the back of their mind,

32:01

didn't matter because there was no way

32:04

to say what you think. And that's what

32:07

you have in Russia. Again, now it's for

32:08

me very tragic because there was a

32:10

period in Russia in the 90s and 2000s

32:12

when there was open debate and people

32:13

were speaking freely and clearly about

32:16

about the state of the country. But

32:18

right now it's it's once again a

32:19

situation where

32:21

expressing your views is dangerous and

32:23

so people just don't do it and they try

32:25

to stay out of politics altogether. You

32:27

know, politics is dangerous and ugly and

32:29

nasty. Like just stay home. And remember

32:32

that this is something that's developed

32:33

over years. It didn't happen from one

32:36

day to the next. It was a decline that's

32:38

been happening since the year 2000.

32:40

>> I've heard you say that there's five

32:42

core tactics that autocratic leaders use

32:44

to dismantle a democracy. Could you walk

32:47

me through the five tactics and maybe

32:49

also link them to things that are

32:50

happening now in in the West which might

32:52

be warning signs of the dismantling of

32:54

one's democracy?

32:56

>> Well, corruption,

32:59

we've done that one already.

33:00

>> Mhm.

33:01

>> Corruption you have in any political

33:02

system, and you often have it in

33:04

democracies, too. But in an autocratic

33:06

society, you have more corruption

33:10

because the the legal system is

33:12

controlled. And so what you have for

33:14

example in the United States the fact

33:15

that Donald Trump has taken over our

33:18

department of justice and has installed

33:21

loyalists who are looking among other

33:23

things for example to pro prosecute his

33:25

enemies just because they're his

33:27

enemies. That means you have a check and

33:30

balance. So normally if there was high

33:32

level corruption in the White House or

33:34

in the administration you would have

33:36

people inside the Department of Justice

33:37

and the FBI who would investigate it.

33:39

But now we don't have that happening.

33:41

>> Is that different from the past? It's

33:43

different. It's different. I mean, we

33:44

didn't have anybody try to use the White

33:47

House to make money in this way before.

33:48

So, hard for me to say what would have

33:50

happened in like, I don't know, the

33:52

Clinton administration, but we didn't

33:54

have a completely politicized civil

33:57

service, completely politicized FBI who

33:59

would avoid, you know, any any kind of

34:02

investigation. Um, and so corruption is

34:05

a particular symptom of

34:07

authoritarianism, and it's also a tool.

34:09

you know, it's something that the

34:11

president can offer people. You get

34:13

along with me, you don't criticize me,

34:15

your business will prosper. You know,

34:17

you will get government contracts.

34:19

>> Is that what we're seeing with all these

34:20

big tech CEOs that seem to be going

34:22

frequently to the White House and saying

34:24

wonderful things about him and his

34:25

support and having dinner with him and

34:27

none of them speaking out? But if you

34:29

look at their Twitter feeds a couple

34:30

years ago, they were all saying the most

34:32

horrific things about Trump.

34:33

>> Yes. I mean I mean they they've

34:35

understood that, you know, if this is

34:37

going to be a an American administration

34:39

that you have to genulect the president,

34:42

you have to be sickantic to the

34:44

president in order to get business

34:46

deals, um then they'll do it. If you

34:48

have to donate to his White House

34:50

reconstruction fund, which many of them

34:52

have done, then you'll do it. If you

34:54

have to donate to his inauguration,

34:56

you'll you'll do it. It's a question of

34:58

who is supposed to be the beneficiary of

35:00

government regulation. It's supposed to

35:02

be Americans. I mean, ordinary people,

35:05

we're supposed to become more pro

35:07

prosperous. The beneficiary is not

35:09

supposed to be, as I said, the president

35:10

and his family and his entourage. And

35:13

that is a big shift in in in American

35:16

politics.

35:17

>> When I look back at someone like like

35:18

the CEO of OpenAI's statements on Trump,

35:20

if you go back to 2016, he said he was

35:22

an unprecedented threat to America and

35:24

called him a potential disaster for the

35:26

American economy. He said he was

35:28

irresponsible in the way dictators are

35:30

and compared his rhetoric to the big lie

35:32

tactics used by historical

35:33

authoritarians like Hitler. He described

35:35

him as erratic, abusive, and prone to

35:37

fits of rage. And then I see him side by

35:40

side at the White House saying nice

35:42

things about him and saying nothing

35:45

critical at all.

35:46

>> It's one of the most bizarre things

35:48

actually about this whole

35:49

administration. you know, if I were that

35:52

rich, like what's the point of being

35:54

rich unless if you can't say what you

35:57

think?

35:57

>> Mhm.

35:58

>> You know, I don't I don't understand the

36:00

value of it.

36:00

>> Can I hazard a guess as to why the like

36:02

incentive structure they're trapped in?

36:04

>> What's your guess?

36:05

>> I think that being rich for these people

36:07

is actually just a proxy of status. And

36:09

I think the thing that risks their

36:11

status, which is what they care about

36:12

more than anything else in the games

36:13

that they're playing, is losing to their

36:15

direct competition. And it's quite clear

36:17

to me that if someone like Sam Alman was

36:18

to say anything negative about Trump, it

36:20

would of course hurt his business, but

36:22

actually it would hurt something more,

36:23

which is his status. He would lose to

36:25

anthropic and XAI and Gemini. To lose in

36:29

your category of peers, which the all

36:30

these sort of tech oligarchs are in like

36:32

category of peers would hurt more than

36:34

anything. I think it would hurt more

36:36

than losing a gazillion dollars is just

36:37

like losing the the game.

36:39

>> Yeah. There are two things about it. One

36:41

is it's very shortsighted

36:42

>> because ultimately who will suffer if

36:46

there is a decline in in in the American

36:49

political system in the American legal

36:50

system? I mean it's them.

36:53

>> Maybe they've gotten used to paying to

36:54

play

36:55

>> in a way.

36:56

>> They they have but it's a it's a it's a

36:58

mug's game. I mean it's fine as long as

37:00

you're one of the people who are

37:01

winning, but what if what if the rules

37:03

change?

37:04

>> Oh yeah. Like like in Russia with the

37:05

oligarchs put

37:06

>> That's right. I'm sick of these

37:07

oligarchs. I want different oligarchs.

37:08

And that happened in China, too. So it's

37:10

a so that's one um argument against it.

37:12

The second argument is and I think

37:14

anthropic might have figured this out

37:15

already and some of the law firms have

37:17

figured it out. There's also a game to

37:19

be made by saying no I'm independent. We

37:22

have our own corporate rules. We have

37:23

our own legal code of ethics and we're

37:25

going to behave as patriotic Americans

37:28

and then you attract business

37:30

>> and they and they may be doing all of

37:31

it. And as I said there's a there's a

37:32

parallel thing that happened with US law

37:33

firms. there were some frivolous

37:35

lawsuits and they settled them and then

37:37

there were some who said no we won't

37:38

settle we won't do that and the ones who

37:41

didn't do it have all won you know and

37:43

they're all thriving I mean so there is

37:45

also a benefit to be gained both

37:48

commercially and financially and I would

37:50

think even in that weird world of status

37:53

by standing up for what you believe in

37:55

and by remembering the bigger picture

37:57

and the bigger picture is what happens

37:58

to the United States I mean the United

38:00

States is your main market it's where

38:01

your employees come from it's the place

38:03

where you're doing business and if if

38:05

the United States begins to suffer then

38:07

you suffer too and so thinking a little

38:09

bit like that would might help some of

38:10

them.

38:11

>> Is this just another 3 years of this

38:13

sort of you know unusual behavior before

38:15

we resume business as usual in in in our

38:18

democracies.

38:19

>> I'm I'm asked this by Europeans all the

38:21

time and my sense is that a lot of

38:23

things will not ever be quite normal

38:25

again either inside the US or around the

38:27

world. I mean, I I would advise, for

38:29

example, I mean, if you're doing

38:31

business with the US or you're a

38:33

security partner of the US, I would

38:35

strongly recommend that you have plan B.

38:37

You know, it's really time for NATO to

38:41

have a plan in case the United States

38:43

flakes out, to have a different security

38:46

option. You know, what happens to the US

38:48

after Trump isn't clear? First of all,

38:49

the next president could be JD Vance,

38:51

who I think is even more committed to

38:53

the project of making America into a one

38:55

party state. Or the next president could

38:58

be a Democrat we haven't heard of yet,

39:00

who decides to use the broken system in

39:04

order to take advantage of it in a

39:05

different way. I mean, I hope that won't

39:07

happen, but you can't count it out. I

39:09

mean, once the norms are broken and once

39:11

the laws have changed, then it can be

39:13

anybody can take advantage of it. I

39:14

mean, if if Trump can use the federal

39:17

bureaucracy to threaten media companies,

39:19

then why can't the next president? And

39:22

so, you know, you certain things don't

39:24

necessarily get fixed once they're

39:26

broken.

39:26

>> On that point of global partners of the

39:29

US now thinking about their own defense

39:30

and themselves more. Is that a pattern

39:33

that you're seeing? just from my

39:35

observations of you know we're we're sat

39:36

here in London at the moment but my

39:38

observations of the UK the UK used to

39:40

consider ourselves to be the great

39:42

alliance sort of partner of America

39:44

>> special relationship

39:45

>> that we had the special relationship

39:46

which I never knew what it meant but I

39:47

always liked it seems like that's gone

39:49

out the window

39:50

>> and the UK are now speaking a lot to

39:52

like President Mccron in France and it

39:54

seems like we're having our own little

39:55

European meetings but around the world

39:57

it seems that that's happening Canada

39:59

don't seem to be a great ally of the US

40:00

anymore after they threaten to invade

40:02

them. What it what is happening from

40:05

that perspective? Are we are we becoming

40:06

more individualistic and breaking into

40:08

our own little groups because of Trump's

40:10

rhetoric?

40:11

>> What you're watching is everybody all

40:13

over the world hedging. Everybody is

40:16

looking for alternatives. So you now

40:18

have an EU India trade agreement which

40:21

nobody would have bothered to do a few

40:22

years ago. You have Canada

40:25

in initiating a security relationship

40:27

with the EU. you have conversations

40:31

inside NATO about, you know,

40:33

realistically if the United States

40:35

weren't to help us in case of a Russian

40:37

attack, what would we do? So that's

40:39

those aren't really public

40:40

conversations, but privately lots of

40:41

people are having them. Everywhere you

40:43

go, you see these so-called middle

40:45

powers. This is a term that Mark Carney

40:46

of Canada first started using. You know,

40:48

Brazil, India, the EU countries begin,

40:51

Japan, you see them beginning to make

40:54

new relationships with one another. You

40:56

know, if the United States flakes out

40:58

and we can't trade with them in a normal

41:00

way anymore because the president

41:01

changes the trading rules every 5

41:03

minutes, then at least we'll have a

41:05

decent trading relationship with

41:06

somebody else. I I travel a lot. I've

41:09

traveled a lot in the last three months

41:10

and everywhere I go, that's the main

41:11

topic of conversation. Canada was

41:15

completely integrated with the United

41:16

States. I mean, it didn't almost didn't

41:18

have an independent economy. And now

41:20

that Canadians are thinking, how do we

41:21

benefit from our oil and gas wealth to

41:23

protect our sovereignty? Who else do we

41:26

do deals with? Carney's been to China.

41:28

He's, you know, also talking to India.

41:29

With whom will we share potentially

41:32

share nuclear technology? There are

41:33

these conversations between France and

41:35

Poland and France and Germany about a

41:37

different kind of nuclear umbrella. It's

41:39

all pretty tentative, but it's it's

41:41

moved much faster than I would ever

41:43

expected. I think the breaking point for

41:44

a lot of people in Europe was Greenland.

41:48

And I don't know if people have really

41:50

focused on what exactly happened there,

41:52

but you had the president of the United

41:54

States saying he was going to invade

41:57

Denmark. All right, there we go. So, the

42:01

United States was saying it was going to

42:02

invade Greenland. So, Trump was kind of

42:05

hinting it in public and behind the

42:07

scenes there were other signs that maybe

42:09

they were really preparing to do it. And

42:10

so, what did that mean in Denmark? That

42:13

meant that the Danes said, "Okay, we're

42:17

preparing for a US invasion." And this

42:19

is a very, this is a country that's very

42:20

pro-American. Lots of big Danish

42:23

companies in the United States,

42:25

including the ones who create the the

42:26

weight loss drugs. Lots of Danish

42:29

American travel, friendship, everything,

42:32

security relationship going back to to

42:34

the Second World War. Okay, the

42:36

Americans are invading. What do we do?

42:38

Do we blow up the airports in Greenland?

42:42

And they did start planning that. Do we

42:44

plan to shoot down American planes? Are

42:46

we going to shoot at American soldiers?

42:48

You know, are they going to shoot at us?

42:51

And they had to suddenly imagine a real

42:55

war with their closest ally and how that

42:59

would impact them and impact trade and

43:01

impact NATO and so on. And not only did

43:03

they have to do it, their close allies

43:04

in Europe did it, too. So the Germans

43:06

were consulting with the Danes all

43:08

through this period. You know, what if

43:09

the Danes shoot down an American plane?

43:11

like how does that affect us? And

43:13

everybody went through this kind of

43:14

traumatic experience of imagining a US

43:17

invasion of a NATO ally. And then Trump

43:20

made a speech at Davos where he somehow

43:22

changed the subject and confused

43:24

Greenland and Iceland a few times and

43:26

you know and it got put off. But no one

43:29

has recovered. Everybody remembers that

43:32

moment and said, "Okay, this is a this

43:34

is an unstable power. They could do real

43:37

damage to us. they can't be relied on.

43:41

We need alternatives. And so really

43:42

since then, and that was in January,

43:44

since then, this is when you've seen

43:46

this the stuff you were talking about,

43:48

you know, the visits to China, the

43:49

visits to Canada, um the back and forth

43:52

with India, and you see you see

43:53

everybody hedging and rearranging the

43:56

way they think about the world.

43:57

>> If you're an American, is this good news

43:59

or bad news that the rest of the world

44:01

is hedging?

44:02

>> It's very bad news.

44:03

>> Why? because a lot of America's

44:06

prosperity in the post-war period has

44:08

been based on the fact that America was

44:11

dominant in global trade and you know we

44:14

make money out of our European

44:15

relationships. Um you know we produce

44:18

things that we sell all over the world

44:19

and actually you know we import things

44:21

from all over the world and that's good

44:22

too. You know the the root of American

44:24

post-war prosperity is is are these

44:26

relationships especially with Europe um

44:28

and also the root of America's security

44:30

dominance. I mean why are there NATO

44:33

bases in Europe? It's not just to

44:34

protect Europe. It's also because from

44:36

there the US can project power into the

44:40

Middle East. It has it can you know into

44:41

Africa. It has it has a sort of window

44:44

on the world from there. And once those

44:46

bases are gone then the US is suddenly

44:49

cut off and far away in a way that it

44:52

wasn't it wasn't before. And there are

44:53

all kinds of other risks. You know will

44:54

the US dollar go on being so dominant?

44:57

US makes money out of that. Um, will US

44:59

goods go on being so valued? You know,

45:01

in Canada, they boycott US products now.

45:03

And actually, this was when I was in

45:04

Denmark uh in February. I was shown an

45:08

app. You can take a picture of a thing

45:10

you see in the supermarket and it will

45:11

tell you whether it's made in the United

45:13

States. And if it's made in the United

45:14

States, you don't buy it because they

45:16

were so angry. Even the dominance of

45:19

American tech, which a lot of Europeans

45:21

have belatedly woken up to as a problem,

45:24

could be in question. So Europeans are

45:27

looking to do cloud storage in Europe

45:28

and payment systems in Europe because

45:31

you know maybe the US is unreliable and

45:33

so all all it's it's we're just at the

45:35

beginning of what could be quite a big

45:37

change and yes Americans would feel

45:38

that.

45:40

>> Coming back to this point about the war

45:41

in Iran you said that Trump sort of

45:44

misestimated what would happen here.

45:46

Yes. Obviously flew into Versa and took

45:47

Madura out of bed

45:49

>> and that seemed to go fairly well um

45:51

from what he might have been expecting.

45:53

Um but then he attacked Iran and this

45:57

war seems to know no end now.

45:59

>> I mean here's another feature of

46:01

dictatorships is that nobody questions

46:03

your decisions and nobody offers you

46:05

alternatives. So

46:06

>> the people around you

46:07

>> the people around you. So when he was

46:09

planning the war in Iran you from the

46:11

reporting that we know people did say

46:14

well you know Mr. President you know the

46:16

Iranians are not like the Venezuelans.

46:18

It's a it's a very embedded regime and

46:20

the Iranians had a plan already for what

46:22

would happen if their leadership was

46:23

killed. They just they had a sort of

46:25

decentralized system, you know, that

46:27

will kick into place. You know, they

46:29

have allies all over the Middle East.

46:30

They have these proxy groups in

46:31

different parts of the Middle East and

46:33

famously the control over the straight

46:34

of Hormuz possibly. And he was told

46:38

that, but it seems he wasn't told it in

46:41

a very definitive way. Like some people

46:43

said, well, maybe this might be the

46:45

case, but nobody said to him, "Mr.

46:47

president, this is a bad idea because

46:49

he's known if you said, "Mr. President,

46:51

this is a bad idea," he might have said,

46:52

"Well, get out of my sight."

46:54

>> Mh.

46:54

>> Because he's not somebody who listens to

46:56

other people's views or or takes them

46:58

into into consideration. The thing that

47:00

bothers me the most about Iran, I have

47:02

friends and I've been involved with

47:03

organizations that do Iranian human

47:05

rights. The thing that bothered me the

47:06

most was his utter failure even to talk

47:09

to or about Iranians. I mean, there it

47:12

is an unpopular regime. It's one of the

47:14

worst regimes, ugliest on the planet.

47:16

And yet there seems to have been no

47:18

communication with the you know

47:20

democratic opposition in Iran. No

47:22

communication even with Paly the son of

47:24

the sha the monarchists in Iran. I mean

47:26

there are alternative governments. There

47:27

are alternative people who you could

47:30

speak to. And he never did that because

47:32

his real interest isn't democracy you

47:35

know or making Iran into a better place.

47:37

His real interest was in somehow

47:39

dominating Iran and getting them to give

47:40

him a share of the oil revenues which is

47:42

what happened in Venezuela.

47:44

you know, so he he he's also not even

47:46

thinking the way previous Democratic

47:49

presidents thought. So even George W.

47:51

Bush also somebody who made huge

47:53

mistakes, you know, and so on. You never

47:57

heard George W. Bush say, "What I want

47:59

is to run Iraq and steal its oil.

48:03

>> They wanted to make Iraq into a

48:04

democracy." Okay, that you know, which

48:06

by the way it is now, but it's it was it

48:08

was a long bloody pathway. Trump doesn't

48:11

even think like that. He thinks my idea

48:14

is to do some deal with one of the

48:16

dictators and and move on. And actually

48:19

that's what's happened in Venezuela. So

48:20

Venezuela is still a dictatorship and

48:22

it's run by the same regime as before

48:25

just led by a different person.

48:27

>> And he's been quite vocal about the fact

48:29

that they're getting all the oil. Yes.

48:30

Which is it's crazy thing to hear that

48:32

you'd snatch up you'd snatch a world

48:33

leader and then the same day you talk

48:35

about how you've got the boats stealing

48:37

the country's oil. I say the word

48:38

stealing but taking the country's oil

48:40

and proudly saying it. And it's not even

48:41

clear what he means by that and so on,

48:43

but it was not the action of a of a of a

48:46

20th or 21st century president.

48:49

>> The midterms are coming up and um I was

48:52

reading that Trump's approval ratings

48:53

are at an all-time low. It's the first

48:54

time I've seen people that were sort of

48:57

devoted supporters of his like Tucker

48:58

Carlson coming out and saying

49:00

apologizing for supporting him.

49:02

>> So this this war in Iran seems to have

49:04

really backfired in a way that I don't

49:05

think he was he was intending. And you

49:07

can kind of tell by how Trump's feeling

49:09

because you just watch him in

49:10

interviews. And the line that he repeats

49:12

75 times is probably like in some

49:16

respects the exact opposite of what's

49:17

going on. So when I when I watched him

49:20

in an interview this week and he was

49:22

repeatedly saying obviously he says how

49:24

great the war is going. So that makes me

49:26

feel like it's not going well. Yeah. It

49:27

was that was the main narrative was just

49:28

like how well the war is going.

49:30

>> He keeps saying we've won, we've won,

49:32

it's over. One of the problems of having

49:33

a president who lies all the time is

49:35

that you, you know, you just stop

49:36

believing. I mean, even if the war was

49:37

over, you wouldn't believe it because

49:39

he's his his his track record is not

49:41

good. Um, I mean, look, I think the

49:43

important thing to understand about

49:44

Trump is that he's somebody who has no

49:46

strategy. He doesn't care that much

49:49

about what happened before he was

49:51

president. He doesn't know the history

49:53

of Iran, you know, um, he doesn't

49:55

understand much about the history of the

49:56

region, and he doesn't really care about

49:59

what's going to happen later. He's

50:01

interested in what is happening now and

50:04

is he winning in the current moment.

50:07

>> What does winning mean?

50:08

>> Whatever it means to him. So I'm I'm

50:10

winning the contest with this journalist

50:12

or I'm winning the argument about Iran

50:15

or like we're winning the war or we're

50:17

I'm you know the opinion polls are all

50:18

in my favor. So whatever is the

50:21

situation, he has to emerge as the

50:23

winner. That's his narcissistic

50:26

mentality. That's not very good for

50:28

strategic thinking because sometimes you

50:29

don't win immediately like you have to

50:31

have a plan, you know, and you have to

50:32

have a long-term aim and you have to

50:35

have a strategy on how to get there. But

50:37

he he doesn't think like that. If you

50:39

watch him if you watch him perform on

50:41

television,

50:42

whatever is the happening, he will

50:44

convert it into that, you know, I'm

50:46

winning.

50:49

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52:53

When you begin to see attempts to

52:56

corrupt and shape elections, this is

52:59

when you know your democracy is in

53:00

trouble. When the rules of the election

53:03

are challenged. when um there there

53:06

begin to be arguments about who can vote

53:08

and and attempts to make some people not

53:11

be allowed to vote when you try to alter

53:13

the result in some way. I mean any an

53:15

attack on elections is a classic way in

53:19

which democratically elected leaders

53:21

undermine democracy. So an example of

53:23

this okay Victor Orban who just lost an

53:25

election in Hungary after 16 years he

53:29

had twothirds control of in Hungary if

53:32

you have twothirds of the parliament

53:34

then you can change the constitution so

53:35

he continually altered the Hungarian

53:38

constitution in order to give himself

53:40

electoral advantages so changing

53:42

constituencies and rebalancing the way

53:44

votes were counted in the United States

53:46

I think we already talked about

53:47

gerrymandering um gerrymandering is

53:50

unbelievably anti-democratic and the

53:52

fact that we of a kind of gerrymandering

53:54

contest right now.

53:55

>> What's gerrymandering?

53:56

>> Jerrymandering is a great word actually.

53:58

It comes from a congressman named Jerry

54:00

in the early 19th century who drew a map

54:04

of an electoral map which looked like a

54:06

salamander. And a gerrymandered map in

54:09

in US terms is a electoral map that has

54:13

been altered to favor one political

54:15

party. you know, the city of Nashville,

54:16

instead of having a single Democratic

54:18

representative, instead of having a

54:19

sensible constituency around the city,

54:22

um, that would vote for one member of

54:24

Congress, has been divided into several

54:26

constituencies that are designed in such

54:28

a way that only Republicans win. And

54:31

once you have maps that are designed to

54:35

favor one party or the other, then you

54:37

begin to get real democratic decline.

54:41

>> But there are other things happening in

54:42

the US too. So there are fears that ICE

54:45

which is the paramilitary organization

54:48

created by the president supposedly to

54:51

go after immigrants that what if what if

54:53

ICE troops are put on the street dur on

54:55

election day you know would some people

54:57

be intimidated from voting so there are

54:59

fears that he will do that uh in some

55:02

states

55:03

>> there's something called voter ID he

55:04

talks about a lot

55:05

>> yes well this is also very strange so of

55:07

course in the US you have voter ID and

55:08

most people have driver's licenses um

55:10

they want to change the law so that

55:12

either have to use a passport or a birth

55:15

certificate. And most Americans don't

55:18

have passports. I think 60% don't. I I

55:21

don't remember the number, but it's it's

55:22

very low. Many people have lost or never

55:25

had their birth certificates. If you

55:27

passed a law like that, it would make it

55:29

much more difficult for some people to

55:31

vote, especially certain kinds of

55:32

people. So married women would have to

55:35

show a passport, a birth certificate,

55:36

and a marriage license because you'd

55:38

have to show that because your birth

55:39

certificate name is different from your

55:41

married name.

55:42

>> Okay. Yeah.

55:43

>> So you'd have and so many people believe

55:46

this is a way to get fewer women to vote

55:47

and women are more likely to vote

55:49

Democrat. It's also part of a narrative.

55:53

So, the administration is trying to

55:55

argue that lots and lots of illegal

55:59

immigrants are voting,

56:01

which is a conspiracy theory. There's no

56:03

evidence of it. There's no evidence of

56:05

really of almost any illegal immigrants

56:07

ever voting. And if you think about it,

56:08

if you were an illegal immigrant, why

56:10

would you want to vote?

56:11

>> Because it would just be a way of

56:13

attracting attention to yourself. But

56:15

they seek to establish this narrative as

56:17

a way of disqualifying Democratic votes.

56:21

They want to say that votes in Trump did

56:23

this during the last election. Votes in

56:25

cities are too high. If they need to

56:28

call for a voter recount, they want to

56:30

say that this is the explanation for why

56:32

they've lost. Um, and so the part of the

56:35

reason why they're talking about voter

56:36

ID is that

56:37

>> so just looking at some of the data, it

56:39

says young voters between 18 and 29,

56:41

roughly 24% of them lack the documents

56:44

that would qualify them to vote. Um, in

56:46

minority voters, 11% of citizens of

56:48

color lack these documents. um compared

56:50

to a smaller percentage in white

56:51

citizens. In lowincome America, only one

56:54

in five households earning under $50,000

56:57

has a passport. And as you said, married

56:59

women, 69 million women have birth

57:01

certificates that do not match their

57:03

current legal name due to marriage,

57:06

>> right?

57:06

>> So, okay.

57:07

>> I mean, it's it's risky because I

57:09

imagine lots of Republicans don't have

57:11

passports.

57:11

>> Yeah.

57:12

>> But I think they've calculated that it

57:14

would suit them better. So, they're

57:15

looking to shape the voting population

57:17

in a way that will benefit them. M

57:19

>> so they're looking to find ways to

57:21

massage the outcome.

57:23

>> And that's you know that that's a kind

57:25

of classic when you're in a country

57:27

which is declining democratically one of

57:29

the classic things that happens is the

57:32

ruling party seeks to alter or change

57:34

who is able to vote and how votes are

57:36

weighted as a way of altering the

57:38

outcome.

57:39

>> What's the third one?

57:40

>> Personnel. Well, we talked about this

57:42

one a little bit already.

57:43

>> Oh, the civil servants.

57:44

>> This is civil service in a modern

57:47

democracy. So in a 21st century

57:49

democracy, government does a lot of

57:51

things. It manages the road system. It

57:53

it sometimes organizes health care. It

57:56

organizes regulates the insurance

57:57

markets. It does all kinds of governance

58:00

pollution and all those people who do

58:03

those jobs. Um it's very important that

58:05

they be people who know how to do them.

58:07

So you want the person who's measuring

58:09

air pollution, you want that person to

58:10

be an expert in air pollution. Mhm.

58:12

>> You don't want them to be, you know, the

58:15

president's cousin

58:17

>> or the person who is regulating the

58:20

insurance market. You want that to be

58:21

someone who knows about insurance

58:22

markets. And you don't want it to be the

58:25

best friend of the vice president

58:28

>> in corrupt autocracies. That is who gets

58:31

those jobs.

58:32

>> Seeing this a little bit with the Fed.

58:33

No, he doesn't like Jerome Pal in the

58:35

Fed,

58:36

>> right? And so he's tried to undermine

58:37

Jerome Powell. He's sued Jerome Powell

58:40

or he was investigating him rather for

58:42

some kind of fake um financial scandal

58:45

and he tried to put pressure on him to

58:47

resign. He tried to put pressure on him

58:49

to change his policy. And I you know

58:51

honestly I don't I don't know whether

58:53

the person who who will come in next

58:55

will be will be more susceptible but

58:57

he's certainly been chosen because Trump

58:58

thinks he is. And so what Trump wants is

59:01

to have civil servants who are

59:03

historically independent and that

59:04

includes the chairman of the Fed. Um it

59:06

includes actually department of justice

59:08

the attorney general usually has some

59:09

independence. What you want is people

59:12

who are acting in the interests of

59:13

everybody and in a in a functional

59:15

democracy in the happy Scandinavian

59:17

countries then at least most of the time

59:20

that's what they're doing. And in a

59:22

corrupt democracy or in a failing

59:24

democracy, then you have people whose

59:26

interests are not everybody in the

59:28

country, but their interests are the

59:30

president, his family, his party,

59:34

anyway, not not American. And so that's

59:36

the danger of undermining the civil

59:38

service.

59:40

>> The fourth one is

59:42

>> information.

59:43

>> Okay,

59:44

>> all dictatorships seek to control

59:46

information. You know, in China, the

59:49

entire internet since the 1990s has been

59:51

constructed so that the government can

59:53

control it. There is no outside

59:56

internet. There is there's nobody who's

59:57

active on the Chinese internet who isn't

59:59

somehow known or accounted for somehow

60:01

by the authorities. And the internet is

60:03

also connected to a whole system of

60:06

surveillance cameras and other kinds of

60:07

databases so that people can be tracked

60:09

all through the system and all through

60:11

the country. People do have VPNs in

60:13

China and they and they do get out, but

60:15

the majority of people are inside the

60:16

that's probably the China is the most

60:18

extreme form of that and Russia is

60:20

actually now heading in that direction.

60:21

So Putin has now cut off Russian access

60:24

to most forms of Western social media,

60:27

you know, Instagram and there were some

60:29

amazing videos of really sad Russian

60:33

Instagram influencers who were losing

60:35

their audiences because of Putin's

60:39

Putin's changes. So he's now he's now

60:41

heading in that direction. But even

60:43

inside the United States, which is maybe

60:45

the loudest and most open democracy in

60:47

the world, you can see the Trump

60:49

administration seeking to shape the

60:51

information space in new ways. So we

60:54

have federal regulators who are now

60:57

willing to put pressure on television

60:59

stations if the president asks them to.

61:01

We have the president putting his thumb

61:03

on the scale of people who are acquiring

61:06

new media companies in order to make

61:08

sure that the new owners are somehow

61:09

friendly to him.

61:10

>> What about Tik Tok?

61:11

>> Tik Tok, CBS, uh CNN, these are all

61:15

media companies where the president is

61:17

trying to get people who are sympathetic

61:20

to him in charge. And this is, by the

61:21

way, you know, we all have this idea

61:23

about censorship that it's like there's

61:25

a guy in a room and he's crossing

61:26

sentences out of a newspaper article.

61:28

You know, that's what censorship is. But

61:30

actually nowadays that's not how media

61:32

control works. So in Orban's Hungary in

61:36

Erdogan's Turkey what happens is that

61:38

the leadership

61:41

encourages or helps business people or

61:44

groups close to them to acquire media

61:46

properties. So they do it through the

61:48

level of media ownership.

61:49

>> So who owns the media becomes the most

61:53

important question and then the person

61:54

who's who's in charge of the media can

61:56

then influence in some ways what it's

61:58

able to say. So it doesn't give you

62:00

complete control. So actually in Hungary

62:01

you still had a couple of very small but

62:05

still existing independent websites who

62:08

turned out to be very important but you

62:10

had an attempt to control for most of

62:12

the television was controlled either

62:14

directly or indirectly uh by Orban and

62:17

it looks to me like Trump is trying to

62:18

achieve something like that. There's a a

62:21

piece of that that also involves culture

62:24

and universities as well. um pressure on

62:27

universities so that they don't produce

62:30

people who are too critical. In the US,

62:31

you've had the Trump administration took

62:33

over the Kennedy Center, which is the

62:35

most prestigious arts venue in

62:38

Washington, and tried to change its

62:40

nature and tried to change its, you

62:42

know, who who was who could play there

62:44

and who couldn't. Um and the result is

62:46

actually that it's now been shut down

62:47

for two years. You see this on both

62:49

sides of the political aisle, both on

62:52

the Democratic side in different ways.

62:53

But I but I think that both parties when

62:55

they're in for long enough, what we're

62:58

allowed to say changes.

63:00

>> Yes. Although the mechanisms have been

63:02

different. I mean, I was involved in the

63:04

argument, you know, some years back

63:05

about this, you know, we I think it was

63:08

incorrectly called cancel culture, but

63:09

whatever. The the the argument that was

63:12

happening inside universities and some

63:13

press and other institutions about what

63:15

you could and couldn't say. And I

63:17

thought it was um you know that that

63:20

there was this peer pressure and

63:21

sometimes institutional pressure on

63:23

people and people were cancelled that

63:24

means they lost their jobs or they were

63:26

kicked out of whatever group they were

63:28

in because they'd said something the

63:30

wrong way. You know I I I argued against

63:32

that and wrote about it and so on. What

63:34

you have now is a little different. You

63:37

now have the president just, you know,

63:39

attempting to change media ownership and

63:43

you have you you're beginning to see

63:44

what happens when the administration

63:46

goes into university and said, "You

63:47

can't teach this course. You can't hire

63:49

that teacher." That was the deal that

63:51

was given to Harvard, I don't know, um,

63:53

you know, some months back. The reason

63:55

why Harvard wound up refusing to deal

63:57

with the Trump administration and when

63:58

it started to sue them was because the

64:00

administration was trying to actually

64:02

decide who would teach what courses at

64:04

Harvard. I don't believe there's a

64:05

precedent for that. But I agree with you

64:07

that it is an illiberal instinct to try

64:10

to control speech. And there's a

64:13

left-wing version of it and there's a

64:14

right-wing version of it. And the people

64:16

who are really in favor of free speech,

64:20

and they're vanishingly few, are the

64:22

people who are willing to call it out on

64:23

both sides. And one of the things you

64:25

often hear now from these sort of

64:26

so-called free speech warriors is that

64:30

they're perfectly happy to shout about

64:32

the left cancelling people or left-wing

64:35

rhetoric that they don't like, but then

64:36

they keep quiet when it comes from the

64:38

other side.

64:40

>> Yes. I was looking back through the

64:42

history of this happening on both sides

64:43

of the aisle and in Mark Zuckerberg's

64:45

testimony I think in front of Congress

64:47

he said that he was repeatedly pressured

64:50

um for months by the Biden Harris

64:52

administration to remove certain content

64:55

and then there's the whole Hunter Biden

64:56

lap laptop story where Zuckerberg

64:59

confirmed that Meta were asked to demote

65:02

a New York Post story by the FBI and

65:06

then there's various other stories here

65:07

about PE Twitter executives being

65:09

emailed by White House officials um and

65:12

being asked to change things on their

65:14

platform.

65:15

>> So there is a difference between someone

65:17

sending you an email and saying you know

65:19

look we this has been flagged by a

65:21

monitoring group as maybe fake or as

65:24

maybe Russian disinformation or as you

65:26

know coming from some kind of foreign

65:28

influence campaign and so you know it

65:30

would be great if you took it down or

65:31

demoted it and there's a difference

65:33

between that and taking over the company

65:35

in order that the president gets to

65:37

dictate what's on it. Nobody coerced

65:40

Meta into doing anything

65:43

or Twitter. You nobody said, you know,

65:46

Twitter will be will pay a fine if you

65:48

don't do X or Y in the context of people

65:51

looking for foreign influence campaigns.

65:54

There were conversations about what was

65:56

appropriate to print and what wasn't.

65:58

>> I think from what from what I've

66:00

observed, it happens on both sides, but

66:01

in different ways. I remember was it was

66:04

it Elizabeth Warren talking a lot about

66:06

um the section 230? M which I think

66:10

protects some of the big social media

66:11

companies from being sued for users

66:13

posts. And I think she would repeatedly

66:16

reference section 230 and other

66:17

democratic lawmakers as a way to get the

66:20

platforms to take a more aggressive

66:21

stance on what they called like hate

66:23

speech and speech and disinformation.

66:26

>> So section 230 essentially allows the

66:29

platforms to be to escape the rules that

66:32

newspapers for example have to abide by.

66:34

So

66:35

>> so actually we do have regulations. We

66:38

have liable laws. We have laws about

66:40

terrorist content, for example. So,

66:42

there are laws that regulate some parts

66:44

of speech that we've agreed are good in

66:46

order to, you know, maintain peace and

66:48

so on. And the platforms are exempt

66:51

>> um because of section 230. And so, the

66:54

platforms have argued that we don't

66:56

control what's put up on our platforms

66:58

and we don't bear any responsibility for

66:59

it. I'm not sure that removing section

67:02

230 is the best way to deal with this,

67:03

but making the online world conform to

67:07

the same laws as the offline world seems

67:10

to me kind of very basic. I mean, it's

67:14

it seems obvious to me that child

67:16

pornography that's illegal if you have

67:18

it in your house should also be illegal

67:21

if it's published online. Um it seems to

67:24

me that um people recruiting for ISIS

67:28

that's illegal to do you know down the

67:31

street from here then it should also be

67:32

illegal to do online. Um and the tech

67:35

companies have been trying in recent

67:37

years in this is an argument that's

67:38

taking place both in Europe and the US

67:40

and elsewhere to get out of

67:42

responsibility for just for conforming

67:44

to the law in the countries where

67:45

they're active. And in one or two places

67:47

there have been big clashes. I was just

67:48

in Brazil which is one of the places

67:49

where that happened. um where the

67:52

Brazilian law said something that was

67:54

published on Twitter was illegal and

67:56

they fined the company for publishing

67:58

it. Twitter didn't want to pay the fine

68:00

and there was an argument back and forth

68:01

and for a while Twitter was shut down in

68:02

Brazil. But it does seem to me that any

68:05

given country whether it's Brazil or

68:07

Nepal or you know Ethiopia and

68:11

particularly democracies I should say

68:13

you know democracies have the right to

68:15

say these are our laws for example these

68:17

are our electoral laws we have laws on

68:18

election spending and if the platforms

68:21

violate those laws they're in breach of

68:23

the law you know and so election is a

68:26

very important one because if you're

68:28

spending a million dollars on Tik Tok

68:32

illegally

68:33

that can be much harder to see than it

68:36

would be if you were buying television

68:38

ads. And so finding a way to bring the

68:40

the social media companies into the

68:42

legal system seems to be completely

68:44

legitimate.

68:45

>> Mhm.

68:46

>> And in fact, I would even go farther

68:47

than that. I would say that if European

68:50

countries in particular don't do this,

68:53

then I'm not sure European countries

68:55

will be able to maintain their

68:56

sovereignty. Like will you be able to

68:58

run an election in Germany or England?

69:02

>> If

69:03

>> if your electoral rules can be easily

69:06

defied by platforms that are based in

69:08

the US or China,

69:10

>> what such electoral rules might be

69:12

defied by?

69:12

>> Well, laws about spending, laws about

69:14

advertising.

69:15

>> Yeah, fine. Everything is a trade-off,

69:17

right? And this is what I've learned

69:18

from being a podcaster and interviewing

69:19

so many people about so many things. So,

69:21

I often just think all the time with

69:22

every idea that I'm exposed to about

69:24

what the trade is. So as you were

69:25

speaking I was thinking about what like

69:27

how does this become a slippery slope or

69:28

what's the the the downside of this

69:30

trade?

69:32

So what do you think that

69:33

>> I'm sure there's a you know of course

69:34

there's a downside. I mean the the

69:36

downside is you know I don't know

69:37

country X has bad laws and then the

69:40

platforms have to conform to the bad

69:41

laws. Questions about speech are

69:43

particularly sensitive. You know what

69:44

one one person's terrorist speech is

69:47

another person's free speech right? So

69:49

>> but somebody has to make that decision

69:51

about what the rules are. And I think

69:52

the person who should make the decision

69:54

is the are the people who should make

69:55

the decision are the elected

69:56

representatives of that country.

69:58

>> Yeah.

69:58

>> And the decision should not be taken by

70:00

Elon Musk.

70:01

>> It's funny because

70:02

>> or Mark Zuckerberg

70:03

>> to some degree it sounded like what Elon

70:05

Musk says. I remember watching him him

70:07

in an interview. I can't remember who it

70:08

was with but he basically said exactly

70:10

that. He said we'll abide by the laws of

70:11

every country that we operate in. And

70:14

some and oh it was his interview with um

70:17

the CNN guy that used to be on CNN, Don

70:19

Lemon.

70:20

>> Mhm. and Don Lemon is pushing is saying

70:22

look there's hate speech on your

70:24

platform and then he asks him what the

70:26

hate speech is and I don't think he can

70:27

say but he Elon's response to him is we

70:30

abide by the laws and pushing push

70:33

>> there's but there's a record of them not

70:34

doing that but so you know so that

70:36

that's just disingenuous I mean it's

70:37

true hate speech is a you know it's a

70:39

longer conversation I mean what you how

70:41

you define it what you say it is is

70:43

different but some countries do have

70:44

hate speech Germany has them so Germany

70:47

decided after World War II you know to

70:49

ban Nazi symbols I think Germany is a

70:52

very very successful electoral democracy

70:54

and if they want to ban Nazi symbols I

70:56

think they should be allowed to. I mean,

70:57

in America that wouldn't work, you know,

70:59

and it was you you can't ban Nazi

71:01

symbols in the United States. But I

71:02

don't see why America should impose its

71:05

rules on Germany. Like, doesn't Germany

71:07

have sovereignty? Doesn't Germany get to

71:09

decide, you know, what the rules of its

71:11

national conversation are?

71:13

>> Because in the US, racism is not illegal

71:15

on the internet in the United States due

71:17

to the First Amendment,

71:18

>> right?

71:19

>> So, I could be racist on X.

71:22

>> Yes.

71:22

>> And that is fine.

71:23

>> And many people are. If you spend any

71:25

time on X, you will see it. It's very

71:26

hard to miss

71:27

>> according to the laws because it's not

71:29

it's not legal. But I think most people

71:32

a lot of people would say that the

71:34

platform would have an obligation to

71:35

take down that racism. Someone starts

71:38

being racist to me.

71:39

>> Yeah.

71:39

>> Me me on the internet. A lot I

71:41

understand why a lot of people would say

71:42

like okay that kind of behavior should

71:44

be taken down but it's within the

71:45

country's laws. So do you think it's f

71:47

like this is a bit of a I don't want to

71:48

be got your question but it's like do

71:50

you know what I mean? I guess this is

71:52

where the clash comes in because

71:53

something can feel deeply immoral but be

71:55

illegal.

71:56

>> Sure, there's a difference between

71:57

illegality and immortal. And some, you

71:59

know, historically newspapers and other

72:01

media have decided not to print racist

72:04

material because it's immoral or because

72:06

it's offensive. Even social media

72:08

platforms, I I think have a debate about

72:10

how much ugly stuff they want to appear

72:12

on their sites because if people see too

72:14

much of it, they'll stop going on it. I

72:15

mean, I, you know, reduced my usage of

72:17

of Twitter because there was too much

72:19

anti-semitism and too much racism and I

72:22

didn't want to watch it anymore. So, um,

72:23

and I think many people, others have

72:25

made the same decision. You know, speech

72:27

is a constant negotiation. You know,

72:29

what's acceptable, what's unacceptable,

72:31

and the norms do change over time. I

72:33

will agree to that. What the autocrats

72:34

try to do is something a little bit

72:36

different. It's not in this gray area of

72:38

hate speech and free speech. It's

72:40

controlling the system itself. you know,

72:43

what what are the boundaries of what

72:45

people can see, what platforms they have

72:47

access to. So, the Chinese don't really,

72:50

you know, what they're what they're

72:51

interested in is are you criticizing the

72:53

Chinese Communist Party?

72:54

>> That's the fundamental thing that

72:56

they're controlling for.

72:58

>> I was wondering, as you were speaking

72:59

about this earlier, if I'm in China, can

73:00

I just get up and go?

73:02

>> Can I just leave?

73:04

>> Where would you go? And could you get a

73:05

visa to go there?

73:07

>> Good question.

73:08

>> I mean, the Chinese do leave. I was I

73:10

just wondering if it's easy to leave

73:12

China if you're a citizen of China or do

73:14

they restrict you from going somewhere

73:16

else? I don't know. I'll go to Bali.

73:17

>> Um

73:18

>> could I not just go move to Bali if I

73:20

>> think about think about it if I mean

73:21

this is this was a you know this used to

73:23

be a problem for people in the Soviet

73:24

Union. I mean okay theoretically you

73:26

could leave you could get an exit

73:27

passport. I mean I'm sure there are some

73:29

restrictions on who's able to get

73:30

passports and who isn't. I mean I'm um

73:32

but say you were able to go. you you'd

73:34

need to go somewhere where you could get

73:36

a visa, where you could work,

73:39

>> where you could set up a life, where you

73:41

speak the language, where it's

73:42

reasonable to imagine you could stay

73:44

there for a long time. I mean,

73:46

immigration, I mean, especially given

73:48

languages and and and professional

73:50

qualifications. So, it is not always

73:52

easy. It's not always practical for

73:53

everybody. I mean, I have friends who

73:55

are still I have many friends who left

73:56

Russia, but I have one or two friends

73:57

who are still there and that's because

74:00

they have aging relatives or because

74:03

they don't speak any other languages and

74:05

they don't feel they'd be at home

74:06

anywhere else. I mean, there are there

74:08

are many reasons why people can't leave

74:11

even if they don't like their state or

74:12

they don't like their political system.

74:15

>> So, what's number five on our numbers?

74:18

>> Uh, you've you've used the word power.

74:20

>> Okay.

74:24

control over power ministries and the

74:27

use of violence. Most autocracies sooner

74:30

or later want to create some kind of

74:33

repressive system that's also physical.

74:35

So it's not just control of the

74:36

information space. There's also some

74:39

element of coercion. So people who don't

74:41

go along with the system don't get to

74:44

just float around. There's some way of

74:46

threatening them physically

74:48

>> like ice.

74:50

So, ICE is not supposed to be that. ICE

74:53

is supposed to be an immigration

74:54

enforcement

74:56

institution. Um, but the way it's been

74:59

used is well beyond the way any

75:03

immigration institution was used before

75:05

in the United States. So, look at what

75:08

ICE looks like. They are masked. They

75:12

are wearing military uniforms. They are

75:14

often driving unmarked cars. They drive

75:17

in vans. They're not driving in police

75:19

vans and they're not following the rules

75:22

of local police. They're not accountable

75:24

to anybody. They're not accountable to

75:26

the mayor, you know, or to the governor

75:28

of the state where they are. And that

75:30

gives them a kind of impunity and a kind

75:33

of ability to behave badly and they seem

75:35

to be accountable directly to the

75:38

Homeland Security Department and to the

75:39

president. And we've already seen how

75:42

this can affect the behavior of ICE.

75:44

that we saw during the during the

75:46

protests and the arrests and the

75:47

protests in Minnesota. We saw two people

75:49

were killed. And what was really

75:51

horrifying to me wasn't just that they

75:53

were killed. It was how the

75:55

administration reacted. You know, it was

75:58

Vance and Gnome and several other people

76:01

immediately said of the people who were

76:03

killed, they were guilty. So instead of

76:05

saying this is horrible,

76:08

>> you know that an American police force

76:09

killed a these were both US citizens. I

76:11

mean, there have been other people

76:12

killed, too, by the way, but these two

76:13

were were notable because they were US

76:15

citizens and they weren't immigrants.

76:17

Two, instead of saying two people were

76:19

killed, this is horrible. We need to

76:20

have an investigation. This must not be

76:22

allowed to happen again. The immediate

76:24

instinct was to give them impunity.

76:27

Like, you know, we're not going to

76:29

investigate this. It's not a real

76:32

problem. You know, the the the instinct

76:35

was to put them above the law. And when

76:37

you have a military force, and as I

76:39

said, especially one that's militarized

76:41

and looks like, you know, they they're

76:43

dressed like they're in Fallujah, you

76:45

know, when you have a military force

76:47

that's above the law, then it's really a

76:49

paramilitary. If you have a police force

76:51

that can harm ordinary citizens and not

76:53

pay any price for it and isn't

76:54

accountable, then you're not serving

76:56

Americans. You're serving the interests

76:58

of of the of the ruling party.

77:01

>> This is super interesting to me. My team

77:03

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77:06

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button and to double check if you've hit

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it. Only thing I'll ever ask of you. Do

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we have a deal? Let's get on with the

77:31

show.

77:32

Do you think this is um potentially the

77:35

decline of the what one might call the

77:37

American empire? I was um I was looking

77:40

at how long empires tend to last and I

77:42

was before you came and there's this

77:45

2000 250 year figure which is famously

77:47

popularized by a British historian

77:48

called Sir John Gub in his essay the

77:51

fate of empires and the search for

77:53

survival after analyzing empires from

77:55

the I can't say that wordians

77:59

>> Assyrians

78:00

>> exactly what I said Assyrians to the

78:02

British um club found that despite

78:04

differences in technology geography

78:06

religion and surprisingly shared a

78:08

similar lifespan standard life cycle.

78:10

Glob argued that empires typically go

78:12

through a predictable sequence of stages

78:14

over those 250 years. The first one

78:17

being the age of pioneers, outburst and

78:19

conquest. The age of conquest which is

78:20

the military dominance. The age of

78:22

commerce which is vast wealth creation.

78:24

The age of affluence, comfort and a

78:26

shift from duty to selfishness. The age

78:29

of intellect focus on philosophy and

78:30

education over defense. The age of

78:32

descendence, internal division, massive

78:35

inequality and collapse. So if you view

78:37

the United States as an expansionist

78:40

project from its very inception, pushing

78:42

westward across the North American

78:44

continent through its power, then the

78:47

math says if you take it from 1776 to

78:49

now to 2026, it's exactly 250 years old.

78:53

So if you use Gub's 2000 250ear life

78:57

cycle model from 1776 to now, political

79:00

scientists argue that we are in the age

79:02

of descendants of the American Empire.

79:05

This stage is typically characterized by

79:07

deep internal political division, vast

79:08

wealth inequality, massive national

79:10

debt, and a cultural shift away from a

79:12

shared sense of civic duty. So, first of

79:16

all, that's a pretty accurate

79:17

description of what's happening in the

79:18

United States. However, you have just

79:20

touched on something that I feel very

79:22

strongly about, which is that I don't

79:24

believe in historical inevitability.

79:26

>> Interesting.

79:27

>> And I I think is very dangerous. So the

79:30

idea that we are on a slippery slope

79:34

downhill and we can't stop it because

79:36

that's the way history is going or

79:38

alternative the idea that everything is

79:40

fine and it will continue to be fine

79:42

because liberal democracy has triumphed

79:43

which is what we thought in the 1990s.

79:45

Anytime you think that something is

79:47

inevitable that takes away your

79:50

willingness to act. Yeah.

79:52

>> What happens tomorrow and next year is

79:56

completely dependent on what we do

79:59

today. Whether the United States

80:01

survives as a democracy or not depends

80:03

on choices Americans make, things they

80:05

say, the arguments they have, you know,

80:08

the degree of civic participation, not

80:11

some historical rule that some very

80:14

brilliant political scientist invented.

80:16

And as I said, I think this has happened

80:17

before. I think we had this moment of

80:19

complacency after the fall of the Soviet

80:21

Union in the '90s. Americans and

80:24

Europeans became convinced that

80:27

everything was best in the best of all

80:28

possible worlds and we didn't have to do

80:31

anything in particular to maintain our

80:33

democracies because democracy was the

80:35

best system and we just won the Cold War

80:36

and it was all going to be fine and we

80:39

lost sight of the ways in which

80:42

democracy was beginning to slip and we

80:44

were beginning to lose things.

80:46

>> And I think it was sense of complacency

80:48

and above all it was a sense of

80:49

inevitability. It's inevitable. We've

80:52

won the war of ideas. the war of ideas

80:54

is over. And that's why we we missed the

80:56

rise of Russia. We missed the the

80:58

significance of China. And we missed a

81:00

lot of those things because we were so

81:02

sure that we were just winning.

81:03

>> Isn't that in and of itself a cycle?

81:06

>> It's a cycle. But my point is that the

81:07

cycles aren't predictable. I mean, you

81:10

can stop the cycle. You can reverse the

81:11

cycle. Countries can and do change their

81:14

trajectory. I say I've I've lived a lot

81:15

of my life in Poland. First went there

81:17

in the 1980s. My husband is Polish. So

81:19

on Poland is a completely different

81:21

country from what it was 30 years ago.

81:22

And it's a country that has really

81:24

changed itself in ways that weren't

81:27

necessarily predictable in 1990. And so

81:30

I I do think countries change. Is all of

81:33

this downstream

81:34

from something that doesn't change,

81:36

which is human nature. And therefore, if

81:38

we understand human nature as the

81:39

constant, then one can almost predict

81:41

these dare I say the word again, cycles

81:43

of how humans will go from there to d

81:47

>> human nature is a constant. But there is

81:49

so much accident in history and so many

81:52

random things happen that you can

81:55

sometimes predict how people will react,

81:57

but you can't necessarily

81:59

predict exactly what's coming. You know,

82:01

when Boris Yeltson was drunk and sick

82:05

and had to choose the next leader of

82:07

Russia, there were a number of choices

82:09

he had. And the person he chose was

82:10

Vladimir Putin, who at the time was a

82:12

very low ranking. I mean, he was a he

82:14

was a FSB. He came from the KGB and he

82:17

was someone they chose because they

82:19

thought he would be loyal to the Yeltson

82:21

family and he wouldn't prosecute them.

82:22

Nobody imagined him as a dictator or an

82:25

imperial leader who would be seeking to

82:27

reconquer the former Soviet Union. And

82:30

what if they'd chosen, for example,

82:31

Boris Nimsov, who was another leading

82:33

Russian politician at the time. You

82:34

know, I don't know that he was a perfect

82:36

Democrat, but he was very open-minded

82:37

and he would have been interested in

82:39

integrating Russia with Europe. Okay.

82:40

What if he'd become the leader of

82:42

Russia? We would be in a completely

82:43

different world. And why was there was

82:46

nothing inevitable about that decision.

82:48

There are many random completely out of

82:52

the blue things that happen in history.

82:55

You can always say there's always some

82:56

percentage of any population that's

82:59

instinctively authoritarian for example

83:01

and there's always some percentage of

83:02

any population that's instinctively

83:04

liberal or extinctly libertarian

83:06

>> because of egos and power

83:07

>> because of just the way people the human

83:08

nature have the people have different

83:10

but what is the balance of that group

83:12

how the leadership of the country

83:14

encourages or discourages one set of

83:16

values or the other you know that that

83:19

affects h you know who who's winning the

83:21

arguments um and so I I I don't believe

83:24

in inevitable cycles.

83:25

>> Have you heard of Ray Dalio talking

83:27

about the sort of boom and bust cycles

83:29

through history and when like a

83:30

population becomes very comfortable you

83:33

have this sort of inversion goes the

83:34

other way. Do you believe in those kinds

83:36

of cycles? You know, I suppose there is

83:38

a phenomenon whereby yes, as people

83:40

become comfortable, then if Frank

83:41

Fukiyama actually had in his famous book

83:43

about the end of history, he had a

83:44

description of well, what happens if we

83:47

have two, you know, if everybody becomes

83:48

a liberal democracy and everybody's

83:50

pretty prosperous, then the next thing

83:51

that will happen is some people will get

83:53

bored

83:54

>> and out of their boredom and out of

83:56

their desire for change, they'll attack

83:58

the system and and want to undermine it.

84:00

It's kind of what happened. So there's I

84:02

suppose there's some there's a there's

84:03

some human element like that you know

84:05

that the there will always be some part

84:08

of the population that feels left out or

84:10

feels discriminated against and and

84:12

wants a bigger voice or wants to run the

84:14

country. I mean so you can you can see

84:16

that I just don't think it's something

84:18

that scientists can predict.

84:20

>> Is there a link between democracies and

84:22

sort of rampant capitalism? So, in a

84:26

democracy, I don't know much about this

84:27

stuff, so I'm just asking the question.

84:28

But in a democracy, does it tend to be

84:30

the case that you end up with wealth

84:31

inequality because you let everybody,

84:32

you let free markets play out and then

84:34

you're going to have these like tech

84:35

oligarchs up here that have all

84:36

gazillions of dollars, a trillion

84:37

dollars, and lots of people at the

84:39

bottom of the rung. Whereas in I don't

84:40

know, in China, I guess they somewhat

84:42

defend. I don't know. Do they defend

84:43

against?

84:44

>> No, I would say almost the opposite. So,

84:46

historically, democracies have I mean,

84:49

there have been different phases, right?

84:50

So I don't want to overgeneralize but

84:52

certainly in the 20 second half of the

84:54

20th century the the democracies since

84:56

the second world war have tended towards

84:58

equality and including in the United

85:00

States and at their most successful and

85:02

prosperous moments people there was if

85:04

there was much less wealth equality than

85:07

inequality than there is now and the

85:09

countries we were talking about earlier

85:10

the happy countries those are relatively

85:13

equal countries and those are countries

85:14

with big welfare states and a lot of

85:17

redistribution of wealth and those are

85:19

countries where people feel invested in

85:21

the system partly because they don't

85:23

feel completely outclassed by a group of

85:25

oligarchs. If you look at the United

85:26

States in the 1950s, that was a period

85:28

of also huge social mobility when lower

85:32

middle class, middle- class people began

85:33

to get wealthier and there's this

85:35

enormous wave of prosperity and that's a

85:37

period when everybody is becoming

85:39

wealthier. And that was also a period

85:40

when you have the, you know, very

85:42

successful American democracy. You have

85:43

the civil rights movement. You have

85:45

democracy beginning to spread to new

85:47

populations or to people who'd been

85:48

excluded before. So you have a a

85:51

connection between equality and

85:52

democracy, wealth, even wealth equality.

85:55

And one of the things that gives critics

85:58

of the United States most anxiety now is

86:02

precisely what you just said, you know,

86:04

the emergence of tech oligarchs who have

86:07

so much more power than any one

86:09

politician and who even have the power

86:11

to to organize information space. How

86:15

long will that group of people want to

86:17

live in a democracy where everybody gets

86:19

a vote and wealth is supposed to be

86:20

distributed more evenly? There are some

86:22

members of that community who have

86:23

become illiberal or anti-democratic for

86:25

exactly that reason.

86:27

>> If we don't believe in inevitabilities,

86:29

then what is it we have to look out for

86:32

as those living in a democracy? We

86:33

talked about the five things there, but

86:34

are there anything is there anything

86:36

coming up where you're worried that as a

86:38

society we might overlook it or allow it

86:41

which results in us falling back down

86:44

into an autocratic society? And is there

86:46

anything we can do proactively now to

86:49

defend our democracy?

86:51

>> We are lucky in that we live in

86:52

societies where we can vote.

86:54

>> Mhm. Um, and so it's really important

86:57

that we vote, that we know who we're

87:00

voting for, that we vote in all

87:02

elections, including local ones. When

87:04

people become nihilistic, when they say,

87:07

"They're all the same. I don't care who

87:09

wins the election. It's not worth voting

87:11

because, you know, they're all corrupt."

87:13

This is what autocrats try to create.

87:16

So, what does Putin want Russians to do?

87:18

Does he want them to be political? No.

87:20

He wants them to stay out of politics.

87:22

You know, what do the Chinese want? they

87:23

want their people out of politics. And

87:25

so whenever you see too many people who

87:27

are have responded to that kind of

87:30

negative inspiration, that's when you

87:33

should worry. And I worry a lot about

87:35

the United States on exactly those

87:36

grounds. Actually, look at how the

87:39

leader of your country talks about the

87:41

press, how he or she talks about the

87:44

judges, the judiciary, how he or she

87:47

talks about the civil service. A real

87:50

Democrat respects those institutions and

87:53

wants them to stay in place precisely so

87:56

that democracy can remain so that at the

87:58

next election there will be a fair

88:00

election.

88:00

>> Do you think the the mainstream media

88:02

are politicized? Do you think there's

88:04

political bias in the mainstream media

88:06

like the big titles?

88:08

>> You know, some of them have business

88:09

models that are that are biased. So

88:11

Fox's business model is to appeal to the

88:14

right-leaning part of the American

88:15

population and to, you know, to

88:18

encourage them in their biases and get

88:19

them to watch TV. There's some media

88:22

that are now dependent on on

88:24

polarization and kind of live off it.

88:26

There are some who try to be neutral,

88:28

but you know, even neutrality is hard to

88:30

achieve now because a neutral

88:33

investigation that turns up something

88:35

bad about the Trump administration will

88:38

immediately incur the reaction on the

88:40

part, you know, you're biased. You we've

88:42

lost our our assumption that that press

88:45

are operating in good faith.

88:47

>> So, it's become much more difficult.

88:48

>> This is so interesting for me as a

88:49

podcaster who I guess now is considered

88:51

to be media. the like the inherent

88:53

incentives of media mean that like if

88:58

say I'm running X newspaper and I write

89:00

a story and I've built up a base of

89:02

people for whatever reason right that

89:04

want me to say something negative about

89:06

Trump I have an economic model and an

89:08

incentive structure that means that if I

89:10

write that article it's going to get 10

89:11

times the reach 10 times the engagement

89:13

10 times the subscribers if I write the

89:15

exact opposite article I know I'm going

89:17

to get so if I say Trump is amazing even

89:19

though I've built up a base that I think

89:20

a certain way the article is going to

89:22

get a fraction of the the reached

89:24

engagement subscribers. So, as a as a

89:26

CEO of such such a company, you're going

89:28

to have to hire more and more people,

89:29

create more and more output to receive

89:31

the same um rewards versus just writing

89:34

something bad about that particular

89:36

person. So, you become incentivized. But

89:37

then the other factor is that

89:39

geographically Democrats and Republicans

89:41

in the United States exist in certain

89:43

areas. So if I open my office in New

89:45

York or LA, most of the people I'm going

89:47

to be able to hire come with a certain

89:49

like statistically come with a certain

89:50

political view. So I I do wonder if

89:52

eventually like the fate of most media

89:54

organizations is they do get politically

89:56

captured one way or the other.

89:58

>> You have to fight it.

89:59

>> You have to fight. And as a podcaster,

90:01

yeah, cuz now I'm I'm part of the media.

90:03

I I now understand because I feel it.

90:07

>> So I feel that I sit here with Kamala

90:09

Harris, I'm attacked. I sit here with

90:11

Ivanka Trump, I'm attacked. I see it

90:13

with Michelle Obama attacked. Gavin

90:14

Newsome attacked.

90:16

And I understand there's this great

90:18

quote which I favored the other day. It

90:19

was like, "You have to join a tribe or

90:21

you get killed by one." Or something

90:22

words to that effect. And I I get it. I

90:24

get why some of my peers in podcasting

90:27

have sought defense behind a particular

90:30

tribe because just taking the arrows

90:32

from both sides is not the nicest

90:34

feeling in the world.

90:35

>> No, but

90:36

>> No. I mean, it's funny when you said

90:38

mainstream media. I don't even know who

90:39

that is anymore. It's not so much about

90:40

hearing from both sides. It's about

90:44

trying to establish what's true.

90:46

>> Yeah.

90:46

>> And so the job of what what you do is a

90:48

little bit different from what

90:49

journalists do. So journalists go into

90:51

the world and they gather information

90:54

and they if they're good journalists,

90:56

they try to figure out what actually

90:57

happened and then they bring it back and

91:00

they write it down or they make a video

91:01

about it and they try and make sure that

91:03

it's accurate, right? And so if you're

91:05

devoted to that project, then you you

91:07

seek to avoid political bias, but you

91:10

know, inevitably

91:12

you might wind up saying the president

91:14

is lying or the leader of the opposition

91:16

is lying. And then you're immediately,

91:18

you know, in the world of people

91:19

shouting at you and saying you're

91:21

biased.

91:21

>> Um, but I I do feel that it's really

91:23

important that this particular

91:25

profession of the people who go into the

91:27

world and try and establish reality that

91:30

it continues to exist.

91:31

>> I agree. You know,

91:32

>> there needs to be a business model for

91:33

that. I mean, for democracy to exist,

91:36

for an accurate and meaningful national

91:38

conversation to exist, we need to have

91:40

some people who are trying to figure out

91:42

what's real.

91:42

>> I agree. And I think those people are

91:44

incredibly important, which I think

91:45

people think podcasters won't say cuz I

91:46

think sometimes we're positioned as

91:47

being like the rebels or radicals or

91:49

whatever that are like doing it from

91:50

their kitchen. This did actually used to

91:52

be my kitchen. But um but I very much

91:54

agree. I very much agree that there are

91:56

incredibly

91:58

um rigorous truth seeeking journalists

92:02

out there that have this very unique

92:04

skill which is not one that I possess or

92:05

or test to possess at all that they go

92:08

deep for long periods of time without

92:10

bias in search of the truth and then

92:13

they deliver it to the world. And I'm

92:14

well aware that if we lose that, then I

92:16

lose so many of the things that I

92:18

fundamentally care about and that I've

92:19

built my entire life and career on,

92:21

especially as like a young black man in

92:22

business who understands that there's

92:24

lots of people that came before me that

92:26

revealed things about the way society

92:28

functioned that have benefited me. And

92:30

so that I should my way of sort of

92:32

paying that forward is protecting the

92:33

same privileges as a um as a podcaster.

92:36

is I mean there is a danger that we go

92:37

down a road in which especially as AI

92:40

develops and we get more and more of our

92:42

information online that we lose touch

92:44

with reality. Mhm.

92:46

>> You know, if if AI is only accessing

92:49

what's available to the, you know, to

92:51

the model online,

92:52

>> there's still a whole world out there

92:54

where things are happening, you know,

92:56

that that's not online and and the

92:59

making sure that we're constantly in

93:01

touch with what's what's reality on the

93:03

ground, what's really happening in

93:04

Ukraine, you know, what's really

93:06

happening in Iran, and not living on

93:08

just what's available to us on our

93:09

phones. It's really important. One of my

93:11

fears is that the the algorithms with AI

93:12

are becoming better at knowing what to

93:14

serve me in order to make me dwell and

93:16

therefore it creates more ad dollars for

93:18

the companies. And so I might not just

93:20

be living in a fake reality. I might be

93:21

living in a completely personalized one

93:23

that's completely different from your

93:24

own because as I went on my phone this

93:26

morning, one of the things the sections

93:28

on my phone is suggested for you. Now

93:30

this is obviously showing me things that

93:32

are based on my past viewing

93:35

consumption. So if I viewed this person

93:36

having a fight in the street, I'm

93:37

getting more people having fights in the

93:38

street. So now my perception is that

93:40

everyone's having fights in the street

93:42

and and that means it's harder to

93:43

connect to each other.

93:44

>> We are very much I mean I think this has

93:46

really happened already that we we live

93:48

in our own algorithms when you're asking

93:50

the more fundamental question about the

93:52

breakdown of democracy. I mean, there's

93:53

nothing more toxic to democracy than

93:56

polarization. Because if you live in a

93:58

world where the people on the other side

94:01

of the political divide aren't just your

94:02

rivals and you don't just disagree with

94:04

them about taxes, you know, but they are

94:06

your existential enemies and if they're

94:08

in charge, then you know, the world

94:10

ends, then it's very hard to have a

94:13

normal democratic debate or create a

94:15

normal, you know, have a normal

94:18

election.

94:18

>> Mhm.

94:21

Do you know what this is?

94:22

>> It looks like a very old newspaper.

94:24

>> Very old newspaper

94:26

from a long time ago.

94:28

And you're in it.

94:31

>> Gosh.

94:32

Oh, it's Wow. Uh, that's a um that was

94:37

that took a lot of research.

94:39

>> Yeah. What is that?

94:41

>> That is I don't they don't even have

94:43

these anymore. That was a New York Times

94:44

wedding announcement

94:46

>> from 1992. I think

94:47

>> 1992. married since 1992. I'm still

94:50

married to the person who it was

94:52

announced that I was marrying a Polish

94:54

He was then a journalist

94:57

>> and now he's the Polish foreign

94:58

minister. We got married in Washington,

95:01

but he was born in Poland and it's a

95:04

long story, but anyway,

95:06

>> lots of photos of you here.

95:09

>> Interesting. Oh, there's a nice one as

95:10

well. You're looking very presidential

95:11

there.

95:12

>> That was a long time ago.

95:13

>> And I've got another one of him and

95:14

Hillary Clinton.

95:15

>> Right.

95:16

Politics has been a big part of your

95:18

family's life in various ways.

95:21

>> I mean, it would be hard to deny that.

95:23

Yeah.

95:25

>> Is it stressful?

95:27

Cuz it's constant and it's and it's and

95:29

it's more polarizing than ever before

95:31

and it's divisive and it's it's a lot of

95:33

energy. Even talking about these things

95:34

I find to be quite um

95:37

energy draining.

95:41

>> Yes. I mean, actually, it became more

95:42

stressful in more recent years. I mean,

95:45

social media made it more stressful than

95:46

it used to be.

95:47

>> The stressful part is um living a part

95:50

of your life in public. We try to not

95:54

live all of our lives in public. This

95:55

has been very useful to me as a

95:56

journalist. Actually, you begin to

95:57

understand the difference between what

95:59

you look like in public and what your

96:01

reality is, you know. So, people react

96:04

to you in all kinds of ways depending on

96:06

how where they've seen you on TV or

96:08

where they've what stories they've read

96:09

about you, some of which might not be

96:10

true. And there's often a kind of, you

96:13

know, that the way you're perceived is

96:15

not necessarily the way you are. And so

96:17

I I try to keep that in mind when I meet

96:19

public figures, you know, that I have a

96:22

set of perceptions of them based on what

96:24

I've read about them,

96:25

>> which I wouldn't have if I met, I don't

96:26

know, somebody introduces me to the next

96:28

door neighbor. I wouldn't have that in

96:29

my head when I met them. But when you

96:31

meet a politician or somebody who's um

96:33

who's who's wellknown, you come with you

96:36

come with stuff. And I try when I meet

96:39

people to drop it as much as I can

96:41

>> because you've seen that at home.

96:42

>> Because I've seen it at home. So yes, I

96:45

mean we have compatible lives that are

96:48

somewhat different. I mean I have stayed

96:50

well away from Polish politics. I don't

96:52

play any role in it. I have a different

96:55

name from my husband which you know I

96:57

didn't change my name and that was also

96:59

has led us allowed us to be separate and

97:01

we share a lot of views but not all. Um,

97:06

and so we, you know, we have kind of

97:07

different trajectories, but as I said, I

97:10

find mostly knowing what it's like to be

97:13

a politician helps me understand them.

97:16

>> Have you ever thought about going into

97:17

politics yourself?

97:18

>> No.

97:20

>> You can't have two politicians, one

97:21

family.

97:23

>> You know, a lot of what I do is

97:24

journalism or it's something or

97:26

journalist adjacent. You know, I go in

97:27

and try and find things. I try and

97:29

explain them. I try and say what what I

97:32

think is happening. And the job of a

97:34

politician is quite different from that.

97:36

You know, it's to you arrive with a set

97:40

of views. You need to explain them to

97:42

people. You need to convince them. It's

97:44

just it's a different it's a different

97:45

way of thinking about approaching the

97:46

public. So, I'm not I'm not campaigning

97:49

for a for a cause.

97:51

>> Is there a particular outcome you're

97:53

seeking with the work that you do, with

97:54

the books that you write, and the

97:56

conversations you have? Is there one

97:57

particular outcome above all others that

97:59

you're aiming at?

98:02

There's an outcome that's general but

98:03

not specific. In other words, I'm not

98:05

trying to elect any particular person to

98:07

be president. I do have a goal that is

98:10

to remind people of why democracy is

98:14

important, why we need to maintain it

98:16

and to pay attention to the ways in

98:18

which it's declining so that we can

98:21

fight back. I mean, I have a I have a I

98:23

have a broad goal in that sense and

98:24

that's not only inside the United

98:26

States.

98:26

>> Why is this so personal to you?

98:30

It it's the thing I've been fascinated

98:32

by since I was in my 20s.

98:35

>> Why?

98:36

>> Because I think it's I saw the Soviet

98:39

Union when it was still the Soviet

98:40

Union. I was a student in Lennengrad

98:43

when it was still Lengrad. I felt what

98:45

it was like to live in a heavily

98:47

autocratic society even briefly. And I

98:51

had really spent the rest of my life

98:52

trying to understand what it was, how it

98:56

worked, why people went along with it.

98:59

And I've also spent a lot of time more

99:02

recently trying to warn people against

99:04

it, against going in that direction. You

99:07

know, it's also not the thing I thought

99:08

I would be doing. I changed um you know,

99:12

if you if you're looking at my books,

99:13

you know, I wrote three history books. I

99:15

wrote the Gulad book. I wrote a history

99:18

of the Ukrainian famine. I wrote a book

99:20

this is this is a book about how the

99:21

Soviet Union took over Eastern Europe.

99:23

How they sort of did regime change in

99:24

Eastern Europe after the war. You know,

99:25

they're about things that happened, you

99:27

know, in the distant past. But I had a

99:29

realization in about 2014 2015 that I

99:35

was living through a period of history

99:37

myself. In other words, there was a

99:40

historical shift happening around me and

99:43

I felt the need to start recording it as

99:45

a kind of eyewitness. And so that book

99:47

Twilight of Democracy was a description

99:50

I mean it starts with a description of a

99:51

party I gave and then the book is about

99:54

how people I knew had changed. I knew a

99:57

lot of people who had been very

99:58

radicalized. I knew lots of people on

100:00

the center right, you know, we were

100:02

anti-communists, we were, you know,

100:03

whatever, Thatcherites, Reganites, and I

100:06

saw many of them become more radical.

100:08

And I thought, this is a really

100:09

important moment of change, and so I

100:11

should record it as a witness. And so

100:13

that book is the first book that I wrote

100:14

in the first person about something I'd

100:17

seen. And that was just me being

100:20

affected by the world I live in. Maybe

100:22

it did matter that I was married to a

100:24

politician because some things that you

100:26

would have noticed in a more distant way

100:28

affected me personally.

100:29

>> Mhm.

100:30

>> Maybe it was

100:32

the particular circumstances of being

100:34

both American and Polish and you know

100:37

seeing a similar pattern of things

100:38

happening in both places. Either way, I

100:40

I felt that something important was

100:42

happening and I've really been motivated

100:43

for the last decade to explain it to

100:45

people and try and understand it.

100:47

>> In that regard, what is the most

100:48

important thing we haven't talked about

100:49

that we should have talked about? Um,

100:52

>> what would regime change really look

100:54

like

100:56

>> in our countries?

100:57

>> Oh, in the west?

100:58

>> Yes.

101:00

>> Isn't it just electing a new person?

101:02

>> What would it feel like to live in a

101:05

very different kind of society? How

101:07

would you feel living in a place where

101:09

suddenly the values shifted? They were

101:11

different

101:12

>> for better or for less.

101:13

>> For the, you know, the the, you know, we

101:15

think, for example, free speech is is a

101:18

value and we've been arguing about it

101:19

here. What does it mean? what's hate

101:20

speech, you know, how do we measure it

101:22

and so on. What if you suddenly found

101:24

yourself waking up one morning in a

101:25

society where free speech was bad,

101:28

>> you know, where it wasn't? You didn't

101:29

automatically assume that it was good.

101:31

We also have an assumption that there is

101:34

some kind of meritocracy in our

101:35

societies, right? That if you try hard

101:37

and work hard and maybe you're lucky and

101:39

study, then you can be successful. What

101:41

if you found yourself suddenly in a

101:43

society where that wasn't true and

101:45

actually the only way to get ahead was

101:46

to have a cousin in the ruling party?

101:48

Being able to imagine that and think

101:50

about it um is important for

101:53

understanding this bigger issue of

101:55

democratic decline like what's the

101:56

change of our system that we're trying

101:58

to avoid and what does it feel like to

102:00

people who experience that. So this has

102:02

been a subject of a lot of my books. So

102:05

that book Iron Curtain is about it. I've

102:07

written a lot about Ukraine and what

102:10

happened when the Russians occupied

102:12

eastern Ukraine. They did this thing.

102:15

They did regime change. They change the

102:17

rules of the society. I think we don't

102:19

reflect enough about what what are the

102:22

what are the deep rules of the societies

102:24

we live in and what we would lose if we

102:26

lost them.

102:28

Hm.

102:30

it seems unimaginable and it seems quite

102:32

far away and that is I guess a privilege

102:34

of having lived in a democratic society

102:36

for my whole life that it's almost just

102:38

seem like as I said like it seems like a

102:40

theoretical concept but you know history

102:45

they say it doesn't repeat but it rhymes

102:47

and um I guess there's you know I I

102:49

believe that even if we don't know the

102:50

time frames I do believe that there are

102:52

certain cycles in history that are um

102:55

accelerate or come about because of

102:57

human nature and so But I'm also well

102:59

aware that there are things that we can

103:01

do or not do that could lead us to go

103:04

down the uh the slope of

103:08

a bad a bad slope.

103:09

>> So then you don't believe in

103:10

inevitability.

103:11

>> Well, it's interesting. I kind of

103:12

believe in both, which is I think that

103:14

there's this fundamental human nature

103:15

which drives us which um causes these

103:17

cycles to occur. And actually, one could

103:19

even argue that it's inevitable that

103:22

eventually we miss the signs and we go

103:24

down the slope. But the time frames of

103:25

that occurring or if it occurs there we

103:28

still have agency and control over that.

103:30

Does that make sense or is that does

103:31

that sound like a total contradiction to

103:33

believe in both human nature does cause

103:35

these cycles but but at the same time

103:37

today we have a choice. We have agency

103:39

over whether we go in that direction.

103:42

>> Yeah. Hum I mean human nature is like we

103:44

know how it works and so it offers us

103:45

some warnings right. It it's you know we

103:48

we know what we should be trying to

103:49

avoid. Mhm.

103:51

>> As I said, if you if you focus hard on

103:53

what it is that you don't want to

103:55

happen, I mean, that's what strategy is,

103:57

right? And then you work backwards and

103:58

you think, how do I how do I make sure

104:00

to prevent that from happening, you

104:02

know? Then you you begin to get a pretty

104:04

clear idea of what's useful behavior in

104:07

the present.

104:08

>> We have a closing tradition and where

104:10

the last guest leaves a question for the

104:11

next guest, not knowing who they're

104:12

leaving it for.

104:15

And the question left for you,

104:18

what is the most challenging setback

104:19

you've experienced and what's the lesson

104:21

you want to pass on to others?

104:28

I suppose the most I mean the most

104:30

challenging things I've experienced have

104:32

been political shifts where I when I saw

104:37

radicalization I saw the rise of

104:40

illiberal groups and movements including

104:44

among people I knew close closely and

104:46

very well and figuring out both how to

104:50

cope with them and how to trying to

104:53

under you know shift my thinking in

104:54

order understand how to explain it and

104:57

deal with it. That was probably the most

104:59

important.

105:00

That was probably the most important.

105:02

>> How do you cope with them?

105:04

>> Someone in your life has a sort of

105:06

>> bad at it.

105:06

>> Really

105:07

>> interesting.

105:08

>> I um I mean lots of people think that um

105:12

you know you should be able to you know

105:13

be friends with everybody and talk to

105:15

everybody and I see that. I see some

105:17

people are able to do that. I find that

105:19

I care too much.

105:21

>> Interesting.

105:22

>> It becomes hard for me. Do you think you

105:24

could interview as a journalist? Do you

105:26

think you could interview anybody?

105:29

>> Probably could interview anybody. I

105:31

mean, there would be some people who are

105:32

hard to interview because they lie, you

105:34

know, for example, and then I don't know

105:36

how to deal with that. Then you don't

105:37

want to have an interview where you're

105:38

correcting somebody the whole time.

105:40

>> I would certainly talk to anybody as a

105:42

journalist.

105:42

>> Would you interview Trump?

105:45

>> Yeah. I mean, he he would have he would

105:46

pose exactly that problem because how

105:48

would you deal with the fact that he's

105:50

saying something that's not true? Would

105:51

you then say, "But Mr. the president

105:52

that's not true and then go down that

105:54

road of arguing with him or would you um

105:57

or would you just listen and write it

105:58

down?

105:59

>> So you're worried it wouldn't be

106:00

productive?

106:00

>> I'm worried it wouldn't be productive.

106:02

>> That that's also my line to be honest

106:03

with um with people is there's certain

106:05

people that are really consequential so

106:07

you feel you should interview them but

106:08

part of me worries that some of them

106:10

wouldn't be it wouldn't be productive

106:11

anyway.

106:12

>> So I wouldn't get anything out of them

106:14

that is new or useful or productive. So,

106:17

>> right. I mean, I would I would talk to

106:18

anybody who is who with whom you can

106:21

have an argument and who's reality

106:23

based.

106:24

>> Mhm. And my other thing is just people

106:25

that don't take things off the record

106:26

because sometimes when we ask to

106:27

interview people, they'll say, "Yes, but

106:29

as long as you don't talk about this and

106:30

for me that's a no-go."

106:32

>> Well, I didn't take anything off the

106:33

record.

106:33

>> You didn't? Thank you. I appreciate

106:34

that. Um, well, you have so many

106:36

wonderful books. I heard there's also a

106:37

cookbook which I didn't manage to locate

106:40

which is a bit of a diversion from from

106:42

your subject matter but um they are

106:44

brilliant books and the reason why I I

106:46

was very keen for my team to reach out

106:47

to you and ask you to come today was

106:48

because not because just you write great

106:50

books but you're a real demystifying

106:52

force in a world that's becoming

106:53

incredibly misty for many of us in part

106:55

because there's just so much information

106:57

accessible to all of us now. But I

106:58

highly recommend people go check out

106:59

these wonderful books. I'm going to link

107:01

them all below and many of them are a

107:03

continuation of the themes and subjects

107:05

we've talked about or adjacent stories

107:06

from history. But you're a remarkable

107:08

storyteller an and that's why I think

107:10

people love listening to you so much. So

107:12

I really appreciate you taking the time

107:13

today to um help demystify all of this

107:15

for me. I actually have never had a

107:16

conversation that is so centered on the

107:18

the subject of democracy. I've heard

107:20

people talking about it for the last 10

107:21

years as this sort of this thing that

107:23

matters. But this conversation has

107:24

really opened my eyes to both the value

107:26

of it, but also the risks and the

107:29

slippery slope that causes societies to

107:31

lose it. So, thank you so much for doing

107:32

what you do because it's incredibly

107:33

important. And as a as a 33-year-old

107:35

that's lived most of my life in the

107:37

West, um it's very easy to take

107:39

democracy as a subject for granted.

107:41

>> I think I have, to be honest.

107:43

>> Yes. Well, it's it's it's normal. It's

107:45

it's it's the it's the water we swim in.

107:47

We're the fish, you know, and the idea

107:49

that there would someday not be water is

107:50

unimaginable.

107:52

>> But thank you for asking such um such

107:54

penetrating questions. Thank you.

107:57

>> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm

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where they know exactly what video you

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would like to watch next based on AI and

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Interactive Summary

This video features a discussion with journalist Anne Applebaum about the risks of democratic decline, the nature of autocracy, and the current political situation in the United States. Applebaum, an expert on Soviet history and authoritarian regimes, outlines the five core tactics autocrats use to dismantle democracy: controlling information, manipulating elections, corrupting the civil service, utilizing paramilitary forces, and corrupting the justice system. She emphasizes that democracy is fragile and not historically inevitable, noting that modern authoritarianism often happens through elected officials who slowly dismantle democratic institutions from within rather than through sudden coups. The conversation also explores how global political alliances are shifting, how the U.S. is being perceived by international partners, and why maintaining a free, neutral press is vital for a functional democratic society.

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