Pulitzer Prize Historian: You Won't Notice Until It’s Too Late - Anne Applebaum
3190 segments
This was Trump's net worth when he went
into office, $2.3 billion. And this is
his net worth now, just two years later.
$6.5 billion.
>> So, we've never had a president running
businesses while in office. And so,
decisions are being made not based on
what's good for Americans, but what's
good for his company. For example, why
did the Saudi government invest $2
billion in Jared Kushner's fund? It
wasn't because they just like Jared
Kushner. It was because Kushner is
Trump's son-in-law. And so my biggest
concern is the deterioration of American
democracy. I mean, it's already
happening. Most people think democracies
end with tanks in the street or somebody
shooting up the presidential palace, but
actually in the modern world, they
mostly end because someone who is
legitimately elected begins to take
apart the system. Trump, he has never
cared much one way or the other for
American democracy. He admires foreign
leaders who have no constraints. And I
have a goal that is to remind people of
why democracy is important and to pay
attention to the ways in which it's
declining so that we can fight back. So
we're just at the beginning of what
could be quite a big change.
>> So there's five core tactics that
autocratic leaders use to dismantle a
democracy. Could you walk me through the
five tactics?
>> So first of all,
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>> An Apple Bomb, what is it you spent the
last couple of decades of your life
doing, understanding, studying, and
sharing with the world? I started out as
somebody who was fascinated by the
Soviet Union. I went there when it still
existed as a as a student. I was lucky
enough to watch it fall apart. I was a
journalist based in Warsaw at the time
the Warsaw pack came to an end. Then I
spent
some years writing history books trying
to explain how control was maintained
over such a large space uh by so few
people. But all that time, I thought
that what I was doing was writing
stories about the distant past. I was
analyzing a system that didn't exist
anymore.
What's happened to me in the last decade
is that I've discovered that a lot of
what I thought was over and done and
belonged to some other era uh has come
back. Most people think democracies end
with a coup d'eta or, you know, tanks in
the street or somebody shooting up the
presidential palace. that actually in
the modern world they mostly end because
someone who is legitimately elected
begins to take apart the system and take
away the things that ensure free
elections can continue and I started
watching that happen in multiple
countries at the same time and I saw
this authoritarian instinct started to
come back and that's what I write about
now
>> are these just election cycles or is
there something bigger at play here
because you know I spend a lot time
reading articles from decades ago or
hundreds of years ago and in all times
in history it seems that there were
problems but it seems that the I don't
know the democratic system has a
remarkable way every four years of
clearing out what people weren't happy
with and putting something new in is
this time different to the past
>> what feels different to me is for the
first time in several established
democracies most notably United States
but not only you have political parties
who come to power with the explicit idea
that they will alter the system in order
to make sure that they can stay in
forever. The pioneer of this idea was
Victor Orban in Hungary. He was elected
legitimately with a big margin and then
what he did was slowly seek to capture
the state. So what a democracy needs in
order to survive, in order to maintain
its stability, it needs a few neutral
institutions. You know, it needs
independent courts. It needs an
independent electoral commission. It
needs independent media. In the modern
world, it needs a meritocratic
bureaucracy. So, people are hired and
fired to measure pollution or worry
about traffic and road construction who
aren't cousins of the ruling party. They
aren't somebody's friend, but they're
actual experts who understand how to do
things. So you need those things to be
in place in order to ensure that each
time there's an electoral cycle, it's a
fair election. And you see people who
are elected who who once they had power
decided to take those institutions
apart. You know, if you think about
democracy, it's actually a very strange
system, right? So you win an election
and in a democracy you have to preserve
the rules so that four years from now
your bitter enemies can contest you and
maybe beat you again. You know you lose
an election, you have to say okay we're
allowing our rivals to stay in power uh
but we trust that the system will remain
fair so four years from now we can also
contest them again. So it requires a
certain level of agreement about the
nature of the system and when that
begins to break down then you begin to
have imbalances and then you begin to
have elections that seem unfair to
people and then you begin to have a
completely different kind of national
conversation and we can see that has
happened in several places and of course
most notably in the United States and
because the United States is the largest
democracy because it's played the role
of leader of the democratic world the
influence uence of America on other
countries is pretty profound. Uh and so
this this idea that democracies can
possibly break down is suddenly um both
horrifying people but also interesting
to other people who say all right if you
can do it in America you can do it here.
>> There's a part of me that just thinks
that could never happen in America. And
that's obviously a bias that I have
being 33 years old and not knowing a ton
about history. But there's I'm sure
there's lots of people that think this
is some sort of theoretical idea, but it
would never happen in America because we
would never allow America to not be a
democracy. We wouldn't allow a a Russia
situation where you've got Putin sitting
in power for two decades or whatever.
>> Sure, but there are systems in between
Russia and liberal democracy. You can
have democracies that aren't fair. And
actually, I'm afraid to tell you that in
the United States, there is a history of
that. So the in the American South
before the civil rights movement, you
very often had in effect in in the
southern states, you had these one party
states where, you know, the rules were
pretty rigged. Everybody knew who was
going to win. Not everybody was allowed
to vote. So black people weren't allowed
to vote or they were it was very heavily
restricted. It was hard for them to
vote. And that existed in the United
States, you know, between the Civil War
and the and the 1960s, you had very
undemocratic parts of the United States.
And I think some of the people who are
in Washington right now in the Trump
administration are working from that
history and from that historical memory.
>> What is your biggest concern in this
regard?
>> Well, I have two concerns. Uh, one is
that inside the United States, the
deterioration of American democracy, I
mean, it's already happening, right? So,
it's already creating a class of people
who no longer feel they have a stake in
the political system and who won't vote,
may never vote and fe and and will be
outside of politics and outside of the
national conversation. That can lead in
the direction of violence that can lead
in in all kinds of negative directions.
We see the development of new kinds of
um paramilitary in the United States
that we never had before. the
development of ICE. We've never before
had a single national police force
wearing combat uniforms, wearing masks,
not subject to the normal restrictions
of local police forces. We also have a
rise in um high-end corruption. The
president, people around him, companies
close to him seem to have access to ways
to make money and are making money out
of doing politics in a way that was also
not possible at that scale in America
before. And that's sort of one whole set
of concerns if you want to go down one
of those roads.
>> There's this map in front of us on the
table. I realize some people can't see
because they're listening, but there's a
map on the table in front of us. Could
you just explain what this map shows and
why it's significant?
>> The map shows the level of of democracy
around the world. And of course, the
thing that's immediately notable to me
is that those who made the map don't
count the United States anymore as a
liberal democracy. Mhm.
>> So at a liberal democracy, meaning a
state where, as I said, the electoral
rules are clear, where the electoral
system is set up not to favor one party
or the next, and instead it's described
as an electoral democracy, which is
somewhat less free. You see similar
systems in South America. In Europe, you
mostly still have liberal democracies.
In Australia, Japan, South Korea, you
still have liberal democracies. And then
most of the rest of the world are some
form of autocracy. Either very closed
and very repressive like China or like
Russia or they are in a democratic gray
zone. So there are states that could
really go in either direction. I mean
they're still they're still open. But
it's true that if you'd looked at a map
like this a decade ago or two decades
ago, it would have been a lot bluer than
the the blue being democracy and the red
or reddish being autocracy. So you do
see a an absolute process of democratic
decline that's been written about um by
many people over the last few years. I I
I think I believe very much that states
influence one another. People follow and
imitate and copy their neighbors.
>> Do you think it's possible that in our
lifetimes the US might become an orth
orcratic
country?
So the US could become a what I think on
this map is described as an autocratic
gray zone. So you could imagine the US
as in effect a one party state. So a
state where one political party has
control and the other just can't win
national elections. you already have
this system of we call it gerrymandering
where electoral districts are being
written in such a way as to favor one
party or the another. The effect of that
also is that once you have people who
don't really have to contest elections
anymore, then you have corruption.
Because if you're going to win anyway,
why do you have to worry about your
constituents? then you have worse
government and worse services because if
you don't have to have a an electoral
contest then you know you can pursue
your own interests. You can do favors
for businessmen who help you in other
ways. And we see this decline of
democracy already at the state level.
And of course there could be a danger at
the national level of a fixed system
that made sure only one party ever wins.
And then you would get all these
pathologies that we already have at the
state level. We're beginning to have
them uh even now. And remember, we have
right now a president who refused to
accept the result of an election in 2020
and who staged what was intended to be
an electoral coup. Uh it failed. But,
you know, the idea that he wouldn't do
it again or nobody would ever dare to do
that or nobody would block an election,
I think it's pretty naive at this point.
I mean, it happened already. Um, and so
of course it can happen again.
>> Do you think he's going to try and get a
third term in office?
>> I don't think so because I don't think
he wants one.
>> Um, but I think it's possible that
people around him will try to shape and
affect the elections in a way that makes
sure that a Republican wins
>> or maybe his his children.
>> It's very possible that one of his
children will run for president
>> because there's a way to kind of control
power in America. You know, when they
they talk about MAGA, which is, I guess,
a collection of people now. You know,
you could say Jay Vance is part of MAGA
and the kids and Trump. So, maybe they'd
want to keep it within MAGA. Maybe
that's the
>> they might or they might want to want to
keep it within the family. I mean, look,
what is MAGA now? You know, what what
what is different about Trump's second
term from Trump's first term. So, one of
the things that happened after January
the 6 after the attack on the Congress
was that many of the people who'd been
around Trump, Republicans, people who do
foreign policy, people who do domestic
policy,
left. They said, "Right, this is too
much for us. You know, we're we're
American patriots. You know, we can't
support this kind of attack on our
political system." And they departed his
presence.
But that exactly that moment that attack
on the electoral system attracted other
people.
>> So for different reasons, people who
disliked the American political system,
who don't like democracy, don't like
liberal democracy, thought it was
leading America in a leftwing direction.
Some of them have political reasons.
They were attracted to Donald Trump
because they said, "Right, this is
somebody who has the nerve to try and
overthrow the system, and we like that."
And they're they're they're not all the
same. They have different views. So
there's a tech authoritarian group who
want influence over the American
political system because it's good for
their businesses and because they don't
get the point of democracy anyway and
they think they should be in charge.
There's a a kind of Christian
nationalist group who think the United
States should not be a secular state. It
should be a Christian state and they
want to they are interested in taking
over the system um with that. And and
then there's a traditional MAGA group
who think the United States should be
run by the people who used to run it.
you know, kind of white Christian people
of a certain kind and they want to bring
the United States back in that
direction. So, they're they're different
views. Um, and they don't all agree with
each other, but they they do agree that
the system requires radical change and
that's the difference between the first
and second term. So, Trump's first term,
I think he has never cared much one way
or the other for American democracy. He
personally sees himself as someone who
should be allowed to act in any way he
wants. He doesn't like any kind of
constraint. Um he admires foreign
leaders who have no constraints, but he
was one way or another constrained in in
in his first term by the system and now
he's surrounded himself by people who
are seeking to help him avoid those
constraints. And that's that's new.
>> I think when we have these
conversations, we assume that everybody
agrees that democracy is the better
path.
>> Sure.
>> And that they understand the downsides
of an autocracy. So there are different
kinds of autocracies to be clear and
some are some are more repressive than
others. The the main thing that you
would notice the first thing that you
would notice would be the absence of the
rule of law. Rule of law means that
judges and courts and the legal system
make decisions based on the constitution
or on the laws. And in an autocracy you
have rule by law. And that means that
the law is what the person in power says
it is.
>> Mhm. And so if you did a program for
example and someone on your program said
something that was offensive to the
leader of the country, you could be
arrested and you could be put on trial.
And instead of the court saying, "Right,
we we've looked at this case and
according to the law, we have in the law
it says we have freedom of speech and
you can do whatever you want," they
could somebody could could ring up from
the Kremlin or from the White House or
from, you know, whatever is the
leadership of your country and say, "No,
actually, we want this guy in jail and
we don't care what the courts think."
Um, and that's the big difference here.
I'll tell you a real story that happened
in Hungary when Hungary was going down
the road in the direction of a one party
state. You can be the CEO of a company
and people can come and knock on your
door and they can say, "We would like
you to sell us a majority share in your
company and you say, 'N no, why should I
let you do that? I I my company, I built
it. I invested in it. I don't want to
sell it." And then, okay, so what
happens the next day? Somebody breaks
the windows of your house. A few days
later, your children are harassed on the
way to school. People who work for you
start having legal problems. this or
that, you know, some kind of mortgage
issue or some, you know, and you
suddenly your company encounters
regulatory issues. There's a tax
inspection and one by one, the state
finds a way to harass you, to harass
your company, your workers, so that
eventually you say, "Okay, I give up. I
sell and I'm leaving the country." And
this happened to somebody I know. Sounds
like um anthropic in the United States
recently where an anthropic the AI
company refused to give the United
States access to its AI under certain
conditions and then very quickly Pete
Pete Hegsth did a a post I think and
Donald Trump did a post basically saying
that they were going to restrict their
ability to work with the government.
>> We aren't used to the idea that the
government decides which companies
thrive and which ones die, you know. So
once you have an an autocratic state
that can do what it wants legally, then
it can decide which companies succeed.
It can base government contracts which
are very important in every country not
on who's the best company or not on some
kind of blind procurement process but on
who's your friend you know or or who's
donated to your political party or who's
in the case of the United States who's
invested in your company. So one of the
things that we have in the United States
for the first time ever I think is a
president who is actively doing business
in countries and in areas that are of
interest to the people he's doing
business with. So for example the Trump
family does business in Saudi Arabia. It
has a it has a deal with a a Saudi
company called um Dar Alakan which is a
sort of development company and it that
company has close relations to the Saudi
leadership. The Saudi leadership is
interested in deals with the United
States, but I mean political arrangement
with the United States and the money is
going into the Trump family coffers in
order to make a better arrangement for
the country of Saudi Arabia. So it's a
way in which because we have a declining
democracy and because we have a
increasingly kleptocratic system
decisions are being made by the
president of the United States by the
white house not based on what's good for
Americans but on what's good for his
company and that's and that if you look
at Russia that's exactly how the
political system works there if you look
at China is more complicated it's a
bigger country it's more sophisticated
but even there you have again decisions
made not for the welfare
of the Chinese people, but for the
ruling party, for the Communist Party.
>> And we have two uh jars of money here.
This was uh Trump's net worth when he
went into office, $2.3 billion
reportedly. And this is his net worth
now, just 2 years later.
$6.5 billion. Looks like being a
president is a profitable job.
>> So that has never happened before. This
is completely new in American history.
There have been presidents who there
have been whiffs of corruption around
them. There's been, you know,
presidential relatives who've tried to
trade off the president's name. But
we've never had a president running
businesses while in office. And as I
said, in such a way that the people with
whom he's doing business are are hoping
to benefit politically or or or in other
ways. And that's that's completely brand
new. And if you just back to your
original question, which is why is
democracy better? Churchill was the
person who said that democracy is the
worst system of government except for
all the others. So it's a multi-reasons
why it's flawed. You know democracies
have require an immense amount of
tolerance. There's always a lot of
cacaphony. There's a constant flux and
change that that people find
innervating. But at the very least what
democracies can do is they can force
issues like this into the public sphere.
you know, you're allowed at least in a
democracy to question whether uh this
decisions are being made in on the basis
that they're good for everybody or
they're being made for the benefit of
the president.
>> I guess supporters would say, you know,
Trump's not running the businesses
himself. It's just his kids activity
that is generating this net worth.
>> Yeah. But I mean, everybody knows that
they're his kids and you you wouldn't do
it. You know, why why did the Saudi
government invest $2 billion in Jared
Kushner's fund? It wasn't because they
just like Jared Kushner. It was because
Kushner is Trump's son-in-law. And now,
of course, Kushner is the Trump
administration's negotiator in the
Middle East. Um, so he's negotiating
with his business partners. The
appearance of conflict of interest is
overwhelming. And as I said, we've never
had in American history or I think in
recent British history, we've never had
that kind of conflict of interest so
clear at that at that high a level.
>> Do you spend much time thinking about
what's going on in the Middle East, the
wars in Iran and what in Venezuela and
the bigger picture here of what's
happening and how this might link back
to what you were saying about
authoritarian regimes. It's all very
confusing. I I feel like we went through
a period of relative peace through the
Biden era and Trump obviously ran on
this promise that he wasn't going to
start new wars. Um and we seem to be
having a lot of wars. Russia and Ukraine
still raging on doesn't seem to be
nearer to any conclusion and now there's
this war in Iran that threatens to be a
neverending war. What is what what what
>> there are several things going on. One
of them is that in declining democracies
and in historically in autocracies is
you have leaders who conduct wars as a
way of consolidating their base and
consolidating their support. Uh and so
one of the things that Trump likes to do
is if he declares a war, I believe he
had a different expectation of the Iran
war. He's using foreign policy. He's
using these fighting of wars in order to
consolidate his support at home. So
that's that's a part of what's
happening. But some of this is nothing
to do with Trump. You know, we are now
living in a world where the historical
political system, um, the one that was
built after 1945, some people call it
the liberal world order, I don't really
like that term because it sounds kind of
mushy, but the the order that has
existed since 1945, the one that was
somewhat based on the UN, that was based
on a set of rules and treaties, that
order has begun to break down. And it's
breaking down for several reasons. one
we've started to discuss already which
is changes inside the United States and
the United States was an really
important pillar of that order but it's
also breaking down because the
autocratic powers uh Russia, China,
Iran, Venezuela until recently uh and
and others have been challenging that
order for a while themselves. They
didn't like the American dominance of
you know of international politics in
the conversation. they were competing
with America at a at a strategic level
but also in what is really a war of
ideas. So let's go back to autocracy and
democracy. You know if you are the
leader of Russia or you're the leader of
China, what is the thing that is most
threatening to you? And the answer is
the language of liberal democracy. So
all this stuff that we find boring and
we're used to and you know this idea of
freedom of speech and separation of
powers and rule of law all those things
that we have come to take for granted in
our societies are a huge challenge to
the political system in Russia or China.
You know what is Putin most afraid of?
He's most afraid of a street revolution
of the kind we had in Ukraine in 2014.
So when people are standing on the
street and they have signs saying we're
against corruption, you know, we want
democracy, we want to be in the European
Union, we want to be integrated with
Europe, he's afraid of that happening in
Russia because if you live in an
autocratic state where you don't have
freedom of speech, where there is no
justice, where the government decides
what all the rules are, then those ideas
are explosive and exciting, the same way
they were in the 18th century when when
they first appeared in the Declaration
of Independence. And people can be
motivated by them. People will go into
the street for them. People will risk
their lives for them. And the autocrats
know that. And so really for the past
decade since 2013, 2014, you see them
seeking to spread those ideas to promote
them. I mean, we all know now about
Russian propaganda campaigns. We know
what Russian disinformation looks like.
There's a Chinese version, too, which we
don't see that much in English, but it
appears in in other countries. We see
them seeking to undermine democracy,
trying to spread the influence of a
different set of ideas. So the war in
Ukraine is exactly that war. The
Russians are firstly trying to destroy
Ukraine as a nation. They want it to
disappear. This is they're they're an
empire. They want Ukraine to be their
colony. And they understood perfectly
well that by challenging Ukraine, by
invading Ukraine, they were defying this
liberal world order. They were defying
the rules of post-war Europe because in
post-war Europe, there was a decision
made after 1945. We're not going to
invade each other anymore. We're not
going to have wars. Instead, we're going
to decide everything by by diplomacy.
Borders will not be changed by force.
And the Russians understood that they
were breaking that that norm. And they
invaded Ukraine. They also invaded
Ukraine because the Ukrainians were
using that language, that powerful
democratic language that we take for
granted. And Putin said, "If they can do
it in Ukraine, then people could do it
in Russia. and so I need to crush this
Ukrainian democracy movement. And so
that war really is a fault line between
the democratic world and the autocratic
world. So I think what what you're
seeing is the breakdown of an older
system that was more or less organized
around by American rules.
>> Through history, which lasts longer,
democracy or autocracy?
>> Oh, autocracies.
>> They last longer. Well, look, if you
look back in history, most human
societies in most times have been what
you would we would now call autotocracy,
but they were whatever. They were
monarchies. They were led by tribal
leaders, by warlords. There have been
very, very few liberal democracies. And
most of them have not lasted. And I
should also say the people who wrote the
American Constitution knew that. And
when they wrote it, they were reading
the history of ancient Rome. There was a
Roman Republic and it fell when it was
taken over by Julius Caesar. So, they
all knew that story. They were reading
about the Greek democracies, Athens,
which also fell. And when they wrote the
US Constitution, they were thinking, how
do we make this last? What can we put in
it to make it last? It's a longer story
whether you think they were successful
or not. But everybody who created
democracies, whether it was after World
War II in Europe, whether it was America
in the 18th century, everybody
understood that this was a fragile
system. And they tried to put checks and
balances,
you know, judicial, legislative, and
executive power. They tried to create
systems that would ward off the impulse
towards autocracy.
>> I don't know if you have the answer to
this question, but where are people
happier on average in a democracy or in
autocracy?
>> So, I have to tell you, I know a little
bit about happiness surveys, and over
and over and over again, the happiest
place in the world is Finland. Finland,
Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Scandinavia is
very happy.
>> The reasons for that may not be anything
to do with the nature of the political
system might have other sources, but the
happiness is certainly connected to
democracy. It's connected to stability
and of course connected to wealth. Just
looking at some research here. It says,
"While wealth and economic stability are
critical for happiness, regardless of
the government type, democracy provides
additional structural benefits like
participation, security, and lower
corruption that tend to lift a society's
overall life satisfaction.
>> Well, democracies by definition are at
least in theory, the state is structured
in a way to benefit everybody, right? At
least that's how it's supposed to work.
Mhm.
>> So whether it's a national health care
system or whether it's a system of roads
and railroads, you know, the state is
building things that are designed to
serve everybody in an autocracy that
doesn't necessarily happen. So in
Russia, ordinary Russians have no
influence on that decision. They have no
way of expressing their views. They
can't say what they think. They have no
ability to influence the state. They
can't say, "Well, actually, hey, we'd
like to build a hospital instead of
bombing another city in Ukraine." And so
they have very little ability to change
the system and that and that of course
creates frustration and unhappiness.
>> If that is true and this is why I asked
the question if it's better for the
people and at some degree I think if
informed people would choose it which I
think is and I say the word informed
because I I understand in a lot of these
countries where they don't have
democracy I'm now using don't have
democracy instead of having to say that
word again. They limit the access to
information so that people don't know
what they're missing out on, I guess, or
don't have those potentially disruptive
ideas. They're not exposed to them on
their on their phones or devices. I I
would think a person would choose to
live in a democracy if given the choice
and the information.
>> I would think so. Although
you know there are other you know there
there's a deep human need for a sense of
stability and security and hierarchy for
some people
>> and it's true that authoritarians seem
to offer that. You know in a democracy
you do have this constant change of
leaders. You know there's more demands
on citizens. You know you have to
participate if you care about your
country. It's not just enough to vote.
you need to be involved in politics in
some way. And autocracies, I mean, I
think falsely offer stability. And so
the the argument of the Russians and
Chinese governments and the argument
they make on in those social media
campaigns that they run inside the US or
the UK or Europe is exactly that,
authoritarianism, stability, safety,
traditional values, hierarchy. And there
are people for whom that's deeply
appealing. So I I wouldn't discount that
instinct. And when people like that are
also able to control information, when
they control the security services, when
they monopolize the use of violence,
they can be very hard to undo even if
the majority of the country wants
something different.
>> It's almost hard for me to understand
how the people in Russia are okay with
the fact that their the leader has been
there for several decades and isn't
moving.
But it's hard for us to understand
because in the UK or in America, we
there would be people on the streets.
>> It doesn't matter what they think
>> really. Well, because they have no way
of expressing what they think. There's
no such thing as public opinion or
public debate. There's no there's no
forum you can join where you can say
what you you could express your views in
a way that's fair. And and if you do
say, I think Putin should be, you know,
it's time for him to retire, you could
be arrested. And so people begin to
adjust what they think and they begin to
change their behavior because they know
that it's dangerous to say things. I
mean, this is something this is a
phenomenon I found in the work I did
years ago on the Soviet Union. The
propagandist said how successful we are
and how much hay we've grown this year
and how many bits of steel we've made
and it was always fake. And so the
question was always, well, did people
really believe that? Did people believe
in the system? Do they believe in the
propaganda? And the answer was a little
weird. It was convenient for them to
believe it. In other words, in order to
get on in life, you had to believe it or
you had to say you believed it. And at a
certain point, what they really thought,
like deep in the back of their mind,
didn't matter because there was no way
to say what you think. And that's what
you have in Russia. Again, now it's for
me very tragic because there was a
period in Russia in the 90s and 2000s
when there was open debate and people
were speaking freely and clearly about
about the state of the country. But
right now it's it's once again a
situation where
expressing your views is dangerous and
so people just don't do it and they try
to stay out of politics altogether. You
know, politics is dangerous and ugly and
nasty. Like just stay home. And remember
that this is something that's developed
over years. It didn't happen from one
day to the next. It was a decline that's
been happening since the year 2000.
>> I've heard you say that there's five
core tactics that autocratic leaders use
to dismantle a democracy. Could you walk
me through the five tactics and maybe
also link them to things that are
happening now in in the West which might
be warning signs of the dismantling of
one's democracy?
>> Well, corruption,
we've done that one already.
>> Mhm.
>> Corruption you have in any political
system, and you often have it in
democracies, too. But in an autocratic
society, you have more corruption
because the the legal system is
controlled. And so what you have for
example in the United States the fact
that Donald Trump has taken over our
department of justice and has installed
loyalists who are looking among other
things for example to pro prosecute his
enemies just because they're his
enemies. That means you have a check and
balance. So normally if there was high
level corruption in the White House or
in the administration you would have
people inside the Department of Justice
and the FBI who would investigate it.
But now we don't have that happening.
>> Is that different from the past? It's
different. It's different. I mean, we
didn't have anybody try to use the White
House to make money in this way before.
So, hard for me to say what would have
happened in like, I don't know, the
Clinton administration, but we didn't
have a completely politicized civil
service, completely politicized FBI who
would avoid, you know, any any kind of
investigation. Um, and so corruption is
a particular symptom of
authoritarianism, and it's also a tool.
you know, it's something that the
president can offer people. You get
along with me, you don't criticize me,
your business will prosper. You know,
you will get government contracts.
>> Is that what we're seeing with all these
big tech CEOs that seem to be going
frequently to the White House and saying
wonderful things about him and his
support and having dinner with him and
none of them speaking out? But if you
look at their Twitter feeds a couple
years ago, they were all saying the most
horrific things about Trump.
>> Yes. I mean I mean they they've
understood that, you know, if this is
going to be a an American administration
that you have to genulect the president,
you have to be sickantic to the
president in order to get business
deals, um then they'll do it. If you
have to donate to his White House
reconstruction fund, which many of them
have done, then you'll do it. If you
have to donate to his inauguration,
you'll you'll do it. It's a question of
who is supposed to be the beneficiary of
government regulation. It's supposed to
be Americans. I mean, ordinary people,
we're supposed to become more pro
prosperous. The beneficiary is not
supposed to be, as I said, the president
and his family and his entourage. And
that is a big shift in in in American
politics.
>> When I look back at someone like like
the CEO of OpenAI's statements on Trump,
if you go back to 2016, he said he was
an unprecedented threat to America and
called him a potential disaster for the
American economy. He said he was
irresponsible in the way dictators are
and compared his rhetoric to the big lie
tactics used by historical
authoritarians like Hitler. He described
him as erratic, abusive, and prone to
fits of rage. And then I see him side by
side at the White House saying nice
things about him and saying nothing
critical at all.
>> It's one of the most bizarre things
actually about this whole
administration. you know, if I were that
rich, like what's the point of being
rich unless if you can't say what you
think?
>> Mhm.
>> You know, I don't I don't understand the
value of it.
>> Can I hazard a guess as to why the like
incentive structure they're trapped in?
>> What's your guess?
>> I think that being rich for these people
is actually just a proxy of status. And
I think the thing that risks their
status, which is what they care about
more than anything else in the games
that they're playing, is losing to their
direct competition. And it's quite clear
to me that if someone like Sam Alman was
to say anything negative about Trump, it
would of course hurt his business, but
actually it would hurt something more,
which is his status. He would lose to
anthropic and XAI and Gemini. To lose in
your category of peers, which the all
these sort of tech oligarchs are in like
category of peers would hurt more than
anything. I think it would hurt more
than losing a gazillion dollars is just
like losing the the game.
>> Yeah. There are two things about it. One
is it's very shortsighted
>> because ultimately who will suffer if
there is a decline in in in the American
political system in the American legal
system? I mean it's them.
>> Maybe they've gotten used to paying to
play
>> in a way.
>> They they have but it's a it's a it's a
mug's game. I mean it's fine as long as
you're one of the people who are
winning, but what if what if the rules
change?
>> Oh yeah. Like like in Russia with the
oligarchs put
>> That's right. I'm sick of these
oligarchs. I want different oligarchs.
And that happened in China, too. So it's
a so that's one um argument against it.
The second argument is and I think
anthropic might have figured this out
already and some of the law firms have
figured it out. There's also a game to
be made by saying no I'm independent. We
have our own corporate rules. We have
our own legal code of ethics and we're
going to behave as patriotic Americans
and then you attract business
>> and they and they may be doing all of
it. And as I said there's a there's a
parallel thing that happened with US law
firms. there were some frivolous
lawsuits and they settled them and then
there were some who said no we won't
settle we won't do that and the ones who
didn't do it have all won you know and
they're all thriving I mean so there is
also a benefit to be gained both
commercially and financially and I would
think even in that weird world of status
by standing up for what you believe in
and by remembering the bigger picture
and the bigger picture is what happens
to the United States I mean the United
States is your main market it's where
your employees come from it's the place
where you're doing business and if if
the United States begins to suffer then
you suffer too and so thinking a little
bit like that would might help some of
them.
>> Is this just another 3 years of this
sort of you know unusual behavior before
we resume business as usual in in in our
democracies.
>> I'm I'm asked this by Europeans all the
time and my sense is that a lot of
things will not ever be quite normal
again either inside the US or around the
world. I mean, I I would advise, for
example, I mean, if you're doing
business with the US or you're a
security partner of the US, I would
strongly recommend that you have plan B.
You know, it's really time for NATO to
have a plan in case the United States
flakes out, to have a different security
option. You know, what happens to the US
after Trump isn't clear? First of all,
the next president could be JD Vance,
who I think is even more committed to
the project of making America into a one
party state. Or the next president could
be a Democrat we haven't heard of yet,
who decides to use the broken system in
order to take advantage of it in a
different way. I mean, I hope that won't
happen, but you can't count it out. I
mean, once the norms are broken and once
the laws have changed, then it can be
anybody can take advantage of it. I
mean, if if Trump can use the federal
bureaucracy to threaten media companies,
then why can't the next president? And
so, you know, you certain things don't
necessarily get fixed once they're
broken.
>> On that point of global partners of the
US now thinking about their own defense
and themselves more. Is that a pattern
that you're seeing? just from my
observations of you know we're we're sat
here in London at the moment but my
observations of the UK the UK used to
consider ourselves to be the great
alliance sort of partner of America
>> special relationship
>> that we had the special relationship
which I never knew what it meant but I
always liked it seems like that's gone
out the window
>> and the UK are now speaking a lot to
like President Mccron in France and it
seems like we're having our own little
European meetings but around the world
it seems that that's happening Canada
don't seem to be a great ally of the US
anymore after they threaten to invade
them. What it what is happening from
that perspective? Are we are we becoming
more individualistic and breaking into
our own little groups because of Trump's
rhetoric?
>> What you're watching is everybody all
over the world hedging. Everybody is
looking for alternatives. So you now
have an EU India trade agreement which
nobody would have bothered to do a few
years ago. You have Canada
in initiating a security relationship
with the EU. you have conversations
inside NATO about, you know,
realistically if the United States
weren't to help us in case of a Russian
attack, what would we do? So that's
those aren't really public
conversations, but privately lots of
people are having them. Everywhere you
go, you see these so-called middle
powers. This is a term that Mark Carney
of Canada first started using. You know,
Brazil, India, the EU countries begin,
Japan, you see them beginning to make
new relationships with one another. You
know, if the United States flakes out
and we can't trade with them in a normal
way anymore because the president
changes the trading rules every 5
minutes, then at least we'll have a
decent trading relationship with
somebody else. I I travel a lot. I've
traveled a lot in the last three months
and everywhere I go, that's the main
topic of conversation. Canada was
completely integrated with the United
States. I mean, it didn't almost didn't
have an independent economy. And now
that Canadians are thinking, how do we
benefit from our oil and gas wealth to
protect our sovereignty? Who else do we
do deals with? Carney's been to China.
He's, you know, also talking to India.
With whom will we share potentially
share nuclear technology? There are
these conversations between France and
Poland and France and Germany about a
different kind of nuclear umbrella. It's
all pretty tentative, but it's it's
moved much faster than I would ever
expected. I think the breaking point for
a lot of people in Europe was Greenland.
And I don't know if people have really
focused on what exactly happened there,
but you had the president of the United
States saying he was going to invade
Denmark. All right, there we go. So, the
United States was saying it was going to
invade Greenland. So, Trump was kind of
hinting it in public and behind the
scenes there were other signs that maybe
they were really preparing to do it. And
so, what did that mean in Denmark? That
meant that the Danes said, "Okay, we're
preparing for a US invasion." And this
is a very, this is a country that's very
pro-American. Lots of big Danish
companies in the United States,
including the ones who create the the
weight loss drugs. Lots of Danish
American travel, friendship, everything,
security relationship going back to to
the Second World War. Okay, the
Americans are invading. What do we do?
Do we blow up the airports in Greenland?
And they did start planning that. Do we
plan to shoot down American planes? Are
we going to shoot at American soldiers?
You know, are they going to shoot at us?
And they had to suddenly imagine a real
war with their closest ally and how that
would impact them and impact trade and
impact NATO and so on. And not only did
they have to do it, their close allies
in Europe did it, too. So the Germans
were consulting with the Danes all
through this period. You know, what if
the Danes shoot down an American plane?
like how does that affect us? And
everybody went through this kind of
traumatic experience of imagining a US
invasion of a NATO ally. And then Trump
made a speech at Davos where he somehow
changed the subject and confused
Greenland and Iceland a few times and
you know and it got put off. But no one
has recovered. Everybody remembers that
moment and said, "Okay, this is a this
is an unstable power. They could do real
damage to us. they can't be relied on.
We need alternatives. And so really
since then, and that was in January,
since then, this is when you've seen
this the stuff you were talking about,
you know, the visits to China, the
visits to Canada, um the back and forth
with India, and you see you see
everybody hedging and rearranging the
way they think about the world.
>> If you're an American, is this good news
or bad news that the rest of the world
is hedging?
>> It's very bad news.
>> Why? because a lot of America's
prosperity in the post-war period has
been based on the fact that America was
dominant in global trade and you know we
make money out of our European
relationships. Um you know we produce
things that we sell all over the world
and actually you know we import things
from all over the world and that's good
too. You know the the root of American
post-war prosperity is is are these
relationships especially with Europe um
and also the root of America's security
dominance. I mean why are there NATO
bases in Europe? It's not just to
protect Europe. It's also because from
there the US can project power into the
Middle East. It has it can you know into
Africa. It has it has a sort of window
on the world from there. And once those
bases are gone then the US is suddenly
cut off and far away in a way that it
wasn't it wasn't before. And there are
all kinds of other risks. You know will
the US dollar go on being so dominant?
US makes money out of that. Um, will US
goods go on being so valued? You know,
in Canada, they boycott US products now.
And actually, this was when I was in
Denmark uh in February. I was shown an
app. You can take a picture of a thing
you see in the supermarket and it will
tell you whether it's made in the United
States. And if it's made in the United
States, you don't buy it because they
were so angry. Even the dominance of
American tech, which a lot of Europeans
have belatedly woken up to as a problem,
could be in question. So Europeans are
looking to do cloud storage in Europe
and payment systems in Europe because
you know maybe the US is unreliable and
so all all it's it's we're just at the
beginning of what could be quite a big
change and yes Americans would feel
that.
>> Coming back to this point about the war
in Iran you said that Trump sort of
misestimated what would happen here.
Yes. Obviously flew into Versa and took
Madura out of bed
>> and that seemed to go fairly well um
from what he might have been expecting.
Um but then he attacked Iran and this
war seems to know no end now.
>> I mean here's another feature of
dictatorships is that nobody questions
your decisions and nobody offers you
alternatives. So
>> the people around you
>> the people around you. So when he was
planning the war in Iran you from the
reporting that we know people did say
well you know Mr. President you know the
Iranians are not like the Venezuelans.
It's a it's a very embedded regime and
the Iranians had a plan already for what
would happen if their leadership was
killed. They just they had a sort of
decentralized system, you know, that
will kick into place. You know, they
have allies all over the Middle East.
They have these proxy groups in
different parts of the Middle East and
famously the control over the straight
of Hormuz possibly. And he was told
that, but it seems he wasn't told it in
a very definitive way. Like some people
said, well, maybe this might be the
case, but nobody said to him, "Mr.
president, this is a bad idea because
he's known if you said, "Mr. President,
this is a bad idea," he might have said,
"Well, get out of my sight."
>> Mh.
>> Because he's not somebody who listens to
other people's views or or takes them
into into consideration. The thing that
bothers me the most about Iran, I have
friends and I've been involved with
organizations that do Iranian human
rights. The thing that bothered me the
most was his utter failure even to talk
to or about Iranians. I mean, there it
is an unpopular regime. It's one of the
worst regimes, ugliest on the planet.
And yet there seems to have been no
communication with the you know
democratic opposition in Iran. No
communication even with Paly the son of
the sha the monarchists in Iran. I mean
there are alternative governments. There
are alternative people who you could
speak to. And he never did that because
his real interest isn't democracy you
know or making Iran into a better place.
His real interest was in somehow
dominating Iran and getting them to give
him a share of the oil revenues which is
what happened in Venezuela.
you know, so he he he's also not even
thinking the way previous Democratic
presidents thought. So even George W.
Bush also somebody who made huge
mistakes, you know, and so on. You never
heard George W. Bush say, "What I want
is to run Iraq and steal its oil.
>> They wanted to make Iraq into a
democracy." Okay, that you know, which
by the way it is now, but it's it was it
was a long bloody pathway. Trump doesn't
even think like that. He thinks my idea
is to do some deal with one of the
dictators and and move on. And actually
that's what's happened in Venezuela. So
Venezuela is still a dictatorship and
it's run by the same regime as before
just led by a different person.
>> And he's been quite vocal about the fact
that they're getting all the oil. Yes.
Which is it's crazy thing to hear that
you'd snatch up you'd snatch a world
leader and then the same day you talk
about how you've got the boats stealing
the country's oil. I say the word
stealing but taking the country's oil
and proudly saying it. And it's not even
clear what he means by that and so on,
but it was not the action of a of a of a
20th or 21st century president.
>> The midterms are coming up and um I was
reading that Trump's approval ratings
are at an all-time low. It's the first
time I've seen people that were sort of
devoted supporters of his like Tucker
Carlson coming out and saying
apologizing for supporting him.
>> So this this war in Iran seems to have
really backfired in a way that I don't
think he was he was intending. And you
can kind of tell by how Trump's feeling
because you just watch him in
interviews. And the line that he repeats
75 times is probably like in some
respects the exact opposite of what's
going on. So when I when I watched him
in an interview this week and he was
repeatedly saying obviously he says how
great the war is going. So that makes me
feel like it's not going well. Yeah. It
was that was the main narrative was just
like how well the war is going.
>> He keeps saying we've won, we've won,
it's over. One of the problems of having
a president who lies all the time is
that you, you know, you just stop
believing. I mean, even if the war was
over, you wouldn't believe it because
he's his his his track record is not
good. Um, I mean, look, I think the
important thing to understand about
Trump is that he's somebody who has no
strategy. He doesn't care that much
about what happened before he was
president. He doesn't know the history
of Iran, you know, um, he doesn't
understand much about the history of the
region, and he doesn't really care about
what's going to happen later. He's
interested in what is happening now and
is he winning in the current moment.
>> What does winning mean?
>> Whatever it means to him. So I'm I'm
winning the contest with this journalist
or I'm winning the argument about Iran
or like we're winning the war or we're
I'm you know the opinion polls are all
in my favor. So whatever is the
situation, he has to emerge as the
winner. That's his narcissistic
mentality. That's not very good for
strategic thinking because sometimes you
don't win immediately like you have to
have a plan, you know, and you have to
have a long-term aim and you have to
have a strategy on how to get there. But
he he doesn't think like that. If you
watch him if you watch him perform on
television,
whatever is the happening, he will
convert it into that, you know, I'm
winning.
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When you begin to see attempts to
corrupt and shape elections, this is
when you know your democracy is in
trouble. When the rules of the election
are challenged. when um there there
begin to be arguments about who can vote
and and attempts to make some people not
be allowed to vote when you try to alter
the result in some way. I mean any an
attack on elections is a classic way in
which democratically elected leaders
undermine democracy. So an example of
this okay Victor Orban who just lost an
election in Hungary after 16 years he
had twothirds control of in Hungary if
you have twothirds of the parliament
then you can change the constitution so
he continually altered the Hungarian
constitution in order to give himself
electoral advantages so changing
constituencies and rebalancing the way
votes were counted in the United States
I think we already talked about
gerrymandering um gerrymandering is
unbelievably anti-democratic and the
fact that we of a kind of gerrymandering
contest right now.
>> What's gerrymandering?
>> Jerrymandering is a great word actually.
It comes from a congressman named Jerry
in the early 19th century who drew a map
of an electoral map which looked like a
salamander. And a gerrymandered map in
in US terms is a electoral map that has
been altered to favor one political
party. you know, the city of Nashville,
instead of having a single Democratic
representative, instead of having a
sensible constituency around the city,
um, that would vote for one member of
Congress, has been divided into several
constituencies that are designed in such
a way that only Republicans win. And
once you have maps that are designed to
favor one party or the other, then you
begin to get real democratic decline.
>> But there are other things happening in
the US too. So there are fears that ICE
which is the paramilitary organization
created by the president supposedly to
go after immigrants that what if what if
ICE troops are put on the street dur on
election day you know would some people
be intimidated from voting so there are
fears that he will do that uh in some
states
>> there's something called voter ID he
talks about a lot
>> yes well this is also very strange so of
course in the US you have voter ID and
most people have driver's licenses um
they want to change the law so that
either have to use a passport or a birth
certificate. And most Americans don't
have passports. I think 60% don't. I I
don't remember the number, but it's it's
very low. Many people have lost or never
had their birth certificates. If you
passed a law like that, it would make it
much more difficult for some people to
vote, especially certain kinds of
people. So married women would have to
show a passport, a birth certificate,
and a marriage license because you'd
have to show that because your birth
certificate name is different from your
married name.
>> Okay. Yeah.
>> So you'd have and so many people believe
this is a way to get fewer women to vote
and women are more likely to vote
Democrat. It's also part of a narrative.
So, the administration is trying to
argue that lots and lots of illegal
immigrants are voting,
which is a conspiracy theory. There's no
evidence of it. There's no evidence of
really of almost any illegal immigrants
ever voting. And if you think about it,
if you were an illegal immigrant, why
would you want to vote?
>> Because it would just be a way of
attracting attention to yourself. But
they seek to establish this narrative as
a way of disqualifying Democratic votes.
They want to say that votes in Trump did
this during the last election. Votes in
cities are too high. If they need to
call for a voter recount, they want to
say that this is the explanation for why
they've lost. Um, and so the part of the
reason why they're talking about voter
ID is that
>> so just looking at some of the data, it
says young voters between 18 and 29,
roughly 24% of them lack the documents
that would qualify them to vote. Um, in
minority voters, 11% of citizens of
color lack these documents. um compared
to a smaller percentage in white
citizens. In lowincome America, only one
in five households earning under $50,000
has a passport. And as you said, married
women, 69 million women have birth
certificates that do not match their
current legal name due to marriage,
>> right?
>> So, okay.
>> I mean, it's it's risky because I
imagine lots of Republicans don't have
passports.
>> Yeah.
>> But I think they've calculated that it
would suit them better. So, they're
looking to shape the voting population
in a way that will benefit them. M
>> so they're looking to find ways to
massage the outcome.
>> And that's you know that that's a kind
of classic when you're in a country
which is declining democratically one of
the classic things that happens is the
ruling party seeks to alter or change
who is able to vote and how votes are
weighted as a way of altering the
outcome.
>> What's the third one?
>> Personnel. Well, we talked about this
one a little bit already.
>> Oh, the civil servants.
>> This is civil service in a modern
democracy. So in a 21st century
democracy, government does a lot of
things. It manages the road system. It
it sometimes organizes health care. It
organizes regulates the insurance
markets. It does all kinds of governance
pollution and all those people who do
those jobs. Um it's very important that
they be people who know how to do them.
So you want the person who's measuring
air pollution, you want that person to
be an expert in air pollution. Mhm.
>> You don't want them to be, you know, the
president's cousin
>> or the person who is regulating the
insurance market. You want that to be
someone who knows about insurance
markets. And you don't want it to be the
best friend of the vice president
>> in corrupt autocracies. That is who gets
those jobs.
>> Seeing this a little bit with the Fed.
No, he doesn't like Jerome Pal in the
Fed,
>> right? And so he's tried to undermine
Jerome Powell. He's sued Jerome Powell
or he was investigating him rather for
some kind of fake um financial scandal
and he tried to put pressure on him to
resign. He tried to put pressure on him
to change his policy. And I you know
honestly I don't I don't know whether
the person who who will come in next
will be will be more susceptible but
he's certainly been chosen because Trump
thinks he is. And so what Trump wants is
to have civil servants who are
historically independent and that
includes the chairman of the Fed. Um it
includes actually department of justice
the attorney general usually has some
independence. What you want is people
who are acting in the interests of
everybody and in a in a functional
democracy in the happy Scandinavian
countries then at least most of the time
that's what they're doing. And in a
corrupt democracy or in a failing
democracy, then you have people whose
interests are not everybody in the
country, but their interests are the
president, his family, his party,
anyway, not not American. And so that's
the danger of undermining the civil
service.
>> The fourth one is
>> information.
>> Okay,
>> all dictatorships seek to control
information. You know, in China, the
entire internet since the 1990s has been
constructed so that the government can
control it. There is no outside
internet. There is there's nobody who's
active on the Chinese internet who isn't
somehow known or accounted for somehow
by the authorities. And the internet is
also connected to a whole system of
surveillance cameras and other kinds of
databases so that people can be tracked
all through the system and all through
the country. People do have VPNs in
China and they and they do get out, but
the majority of people are inside the
that's probably the China is the most
extreme form of that and Russia is
actually now heading in that direction.
So Putin has now cut off Russian access
to most forms of Western social media,
you know, Instagram and there were some
amazing videos of really sad Russian
Instagram influencers who were losing
their audiences because of Putin's
Putin's changes. So he's now he's now
heading in that direction. But even
inside the United States, which is maybe
the loudest and most open democracy in
the world, you can see the Trump
administration seeking to shape the
information space in new ways. So we
have federal regulators who are now
willing to put pressure on television
stations if the president asks them to.
We have the president putting his thumb
on the scale of people who are acquiring
new media companies in order to make
sure that the new owners are somehow
friendly to him.
>> What about Tik Tok?
>> Tik Tok, CBS, uh CNN, these are all
media companies where the president is
trying to get people who are sympathetic
to him in charge. And this is, by the
way, you know, we all have this idea
about censorship that it's like there's
a guy in a room and he's crossing
sentences out of a newspaper article.
You know, that's what censorship is. But
actually nowadays that's not how media
control works. So in Orban's Hungary in
Erdogan's Turkey what happens is that
the leadership
encourages or helps business people or
groups close to them to acquire media
properties. So they do it through the
level of media ownership.
>> So who owns the media becomes the most
important question and then the person
who's who's in charge of the media can
then influence in some ways what it's
able to say. So it doesn't give you
complete control. So actually in Hungary
you still had a couple of very small but
still existing independent websites who
turned out to be very important but you
had an attempt to control for most of
the television was controlled either
directly or indirectly uh by Orban and
it looks to me like Trump is trying to
achieve something like that. There's a a
piece of that that also involves culture
and universities as well. um pressure on
universities so that they don't produce
people who are too critical. In the US,
you've had the Trump administration took
over the Kennedy Center, which is the
most prestigious arts venue in
Washington, and tried to change its
nature and tried to change its, you
know, who who was who could play there
and who couldn't. Um and the result is
actually that it's now been shut down
for two years. You see this on both
sides of the political aisle, both on
the Democratic side in different ways.
But I but I think that both parties when
they're in for long enough, what we're
allowed to say changes.
>> Yes. Although the mechanisms have been
different. I mean, I was involved in the
argument, you know, some years back
about this, you know, we I think it was
incorrectly called cancel culture, but
whatever. The the the argument that was
happening inside universities and some
press and other institutions about what
you could and couldn't say. And I
thought it was um you know that that
there was this peer pressure and
sometimes institutional pressure on
people and people were cancelled that
means they lost their jobs or they were
kicked out of whatever group they were
in because they'd said something the
wrong way. You know I I I argued against
that and wrote about it and so on. What
you have now is a little different. You
now have the president just, you know,
attempting to change media ownership and
you have you you're beginning to see
what happens when the administration
goes into university and said, "You
can't teach this course. You can't hire
that teacher." That was the deal that
was given to Harvard, I don't know, um,
you know, some months back. The reason
why Harvard wound up refusing to deal
with the Trump administration and when
it started to sue them was because the
administration was trying to actually
decide who would teach what courses at
Harvard. I don't believe there's a
precedent for that. But I agree with you
that it is an illiberal instinct to try
to control speech. And there's a
left-wing version of it and there's a
right-wing version of it. And the people
who are really in favor of free speech,
and they're vanishingly few, are the
people who are willing to call it out on
both sides. And one of the things you
often hear now from these sort of
so-called free speech warriors is that
they're perfectly happy to shout about
the left cancelling people or left-wing
rhetoric that they don't like, but then
they keep quiet when it comes from the
other side.
>> Yes. I was looking back through the
history of this happening on both sides
of the aisle and in Mark Zuckerberg's
testimony I think in front of Congress
he said that he was repeatedly pressured
um for months by the Biden Harris
administration to remove certain content
and then there's the whole Hunter Biden
lap laptop story where Zuckerberg
confirmed that Meta were asked to demote
a New York Post story by the FBI and
then there's various other stories here
about PE Twitter executives being
emailed by White House officials um and
being asked to change things on their
platform.
>> So there is a difference between someone
sending you an email and saying you know
look we this has been flagged by a
monitoring group as maybe fake or as
maybe Russian disinformation or as you
know coming from some kind of foreign
influence campaign and so you know it
would be great if you took it down or
demoted it and there's a difference
between that and taking over the company
in order that the president gets to
dictate what's on it. Nobody coerced
Meta into doing anything
or Twitter. You nobody said, you know,
Twitter will be will pay a fine if you
don't do X or Y in the context of people
looking for foreign influence campaigns.
There were conversations about what was
appropriate to print and what wasn't.
>> I think from what from what I've
observed, it happens on both sides, but
in different ways. I remember was it was
it Elizabeth Warren talking a lot about
um the section 230? M which I think
protects some of the big social media
companies from being sued for users
posts. And I think she would repeatedly
reference section 230 and other
democratic lawmakers as a way to get the
platforms to take a more aggressive
stance on what they called like hate
speech and speech and disinformation.
>> So section 230 essentially allows the
platforms to be to escape the rules that
newspapers for example have to abide by.
So
>> so actually we do have regulations. We
have liable laws. We have laws about
terrorist content, for example. So,
there are laws that regulate some parts
of speech that we've agreed are good in
order to, you know, maintain peace and
so on. And the platforms are exempt
>> um because of section 230. And so, the
platforms have argued that we don't
control what's put up on our platforms
and we don't bear any responsibility for
it. I'm not sure that removing section
230 is the best way to deal with this,
but making the online world conform to
the same laws as the offline world seems
to me kind of very basic. I mean, it's
it seems obvious to me that child
pornography that's illegal if you have
it in your house should also be illegal
if it's published online. Um it seems to
me that um people recruiting for ISIS
that's illegal to do you know down the
street from here then it should also be
illegal to do online. Um and the tech
companies have been trying in recent
years in this is an argument that's
taking place both in Europe and the US
and elsewhere to get out of
responsibility for just for conforming
to the law in the countries where
they're active. And in one or two places
there have been big clashes. I was just
in Brazil which is one of the places
where that happened. um where the
Brazilian law said something that was
published on Twitter was illegal and
they fined the company for publishing
it. Twitter didn't want to pay the fine
and there was an argument back and forth
and for a while Twitter was shut down in
Brazil. But it does seem to me that any
given country whether it's Brazil or
Nepal or you know Ethiopia and
particularly democracies I should say
you know democracies have the right to
say these are our laws for example these
are our electoral laws we have laws on
election spending and if the platforms
violate those laws they're in breach of
the law you know and so election is a
very important one because if you're
spending a million dollars on Tik Tok
illegally
that can be much harder to see than it
would be if you were buying television
ads. And so finding a way to bring the
the social media companies into the
legal system seems to be completely
legitimate.
>> Mhm.
>> And in fact, I would even go farther
than that. I would say that if European
countries in particular don't do this,
then I'm not sure European countries
will be able to maintain their
sovereignty. Like will you be able to
run an election in Germany or England?
>> If
>> if your electoral rules can be easily
defied by platforms that are based in
the US or China,
>> what such electoral rules might be
defied by?
>> Well, laws about spending, laws about
advertising.
>> Yeah, fine. Everything is a trade-off,
right? And this is what I've learned
from being a podcaster and interviewing
so many people about so many things. So,
I often just think all the time with
every idea that I'm exposed to about
what the trade is. So as you were
speaking I was thinking about what like
how does this become a slippery slope or
what's the the the downside of this
trade?
So what do you think that
>> I'm sure there's a you know of course
there's a downside. I mean the the
downside is you know I don't know
country X has bad laws and then the
platforms have to conform to the bad
laws. Questions about speech are
particularly sensitive. You know what
one one person's terrorist speech is
another person's free speech right? So
>> but somebody has to make that decision
about what the rules are. And I think
the person who should make the decision
is the are the people who should make
the decision are the elected
representatives of that country.
>> Yeah.
>> And the decision should not be taken by
Elon Musk.
>> It's funny because
>> or Mark Zuckerberg
>> to some degree it sounded like what Elon
Musk says. I remember watching him him
in an interview. I can't remember who it
was with but he basically said exactly
that. He said we'll abide by the laws of
every country that we operate in. And
some and oh it was his interview with um
the CNN guy that used to be on CNN, Don
Lemon.
>> Mhm. and Don Lemon is pushing is saying
look there's hate speech on your
platform and then he asks him what the
hate speech is and I don't think he can
say but he Elon's response to him is we
abide by the laws and pushing push
>> there's but there's a record of them not
doing that but so you know so that
that's just disingenuous I mean it's
true hate speech is a you know it's a
longer conversation I mean what you how
you define it what you say it is is
different but some countries do have
hate speech Germany has them so Germany
decided after World War II you know to
ban Nazi symbols I think Germany is a
very very successful electoral democracy
and if they want to ban Nazi symbols I
think they should be allowed to. I mean,
in America that wouldn't work, you know,
and it was you you can't ban Nazi
symbols in the United States. But I
don't see why America should impose its
rules on Germany. Like, doesn't Germany
have sovereignty? Doesn't Germany get to
decide, you know, what the rules of its
national conversation are?
>> Because in the US, racism is not illegal
on the internet in the United States due
to the First Amendment,
>> right?
>> So, I could be racist on X.
>> Yes.
>> And that is fine.
>> And many people are. If you spend any
time on X, you will see it. It's very
hard to miss
>> according to the laws because it's not
it's not legal. But I think most people
a lot of people would say that the
platform would have an obligation to
take down that racism. Someone starts
being racist to me.
>> Yeah.
>> Me me on the internet. A lot I
understand why a lot of people would say
like okay that kind of behavior should
be taken down but it's within the
country's laws. So do you think it's f
like this is a bit of a I don't want to
be got your question but it's like do
you know what I mean? I guess this is
where the clash comes in because
something can feel deeply immoral but be
illegal.
>> Sure, there's a difference between
illegality and immortal. And some, you
know, historically newspapers and other
media have decided not to print racist
material because it's immoral or because
it's offensive. Even social media
platforms, I I think have a debate about
how much ugly stuff they want to appear
on their sites because if people see too
much of it, they'll stop going on it. I
mean, I, you know, reduced my usage of
of Twitter because there was too much
anti-semitism and too much racism and I
didn't want to watch it anymore. So, um,
and I think many people, others have
made the same decision. You know, speech
is a constant negotiation. You know,
what's acceptable, what's unacceptable,
and the norms do change over time. I
will agree to that. What the autocrats
try to do is something a little bit
different. It's not in this gray area of
hate speech and free speech. It's
controlling the system itself. you know,
what what are the boundaries of what
people can see, what platforms they have
access to. So, the Chinese don't really,
you know, what they're what they're
interested in is are you criticizing the
Chinese Communist Party?
>> That's the fundamental thing that
they're controlling for.
>> I was wondering, as you were speaking
about this earlier, if I'm in China, can
I just get up and go?
>> Can I just leave?
>> Where would you go? And could you get a
visa to go there?
>> Good question.
>> I mean, the Chinese do leave. I was I
just wondering if it's easy to leave
China if you're a citizen of China or do
they restrict you from going somewhere
else? I don't know. I'll go to Bali.
>> Um
>> could I not just go move to Bali if I
>> think about think about it if I mean
this is this was a you know this used to
be a problem for people in the Soviet
Union. I mean okay theoretically you
could leave you could get an exit
passport. I mean I'm sure there are some
restrictions on who's able to get
passports and who isn't. I mean I'm um
but say you were able to go. you you'd
need to go somewhere where you could get
a visa, where you could work,
>> where you could set up a life, where you
speak the language, where it's
reasonable to imagine you could stay
there for a long time. I mean,
immigration, I mean, especially given
languages and and and professional
qualifications. So, it is not always
easy. It's not always practical for
everybody. I mean, I have friends who
are still I have many friends who left
Russia, but I have one or two friends
who are still there and that's because
they have aging relatives or because
they don't speak any other languages and
they don't feel they'd be at home
anywhere else. I mean, there are there
are many reasons why people can't leave
even if they don't like their state or
they don't like their political system.
>> So, what's number five on our numbers?
>> Uh, you've you've used the word power.
>> Okay.
control over power ministries and the
use of violence. Most autocracies sooner
or later want to create some kind of
repressive system that's also physical.
So it's not just control of the
information space. There's also some
element of coercion. So people who don't
go along with the system don't get to
just float around. There's some way of
threatening them physically
>> like ice.
So, ICE is not supposed to be that. ICE
is supposed to be an immigration
enforcement
institution. Um, but the way it's been
used is well beyond the way any
immigration institution was used before
in the United States. So, look at what
ICE looks like. They are masked. They
are wearing military uniforms. They are
often driving unmarked cars. They drive
in vans. They're not driving in police
vans and they're not following the rules
of local police. They're not accountable
to anybody. They're not accountable to
the mayor, you know, or to the governor
of the state where they are. And that
gives them a kind of impunity and a kind
of ability to behave badly and they seem
to be accountable directly to the
Homeland Security Department and to the
president. And we've already seen how
this can affect the behavior of ICE.
that we saw during the during the
protests and the arrests and the
protests in Minnesota. We saw two people
were killed. And what was really
horrifying to me wasn't just that they
were killed. It was how the
administration reacted. You know, it was
Vance and Gnome and several other people
immediately said of the people who were
killed, they were guilty. So instead of
saying this is horrible,
>> you know that an American police force
killed a these were both US citizens. I
mean, there have been other people
killed, too, by the way, but these two
were were notable because they were US
citizens and they weren't immigrants.
Two, instead of saying two people were
killed, this is horrible. We need to
have an investigation. This must not be
allowed to happen again. The immediate
instinct was to give them impunity.
Like, you know, we're not going to
investigate this. It's not a real
problem. You know, the the the instinct
was to put them above the law. And when
you have a military force, and as I
said, especially one that's militarized
and looks like, you know, they they're
dressed like they're in Fallujah, you
know, when you have a military force
that's above the law, then it's really a
paramilitary. If you have a police force
that can harm ordinary citizens and not
pay any price for it and isn't
accountable, then you're not serving
Americans. You're serving the interests
of of the of the ruling party.
>> This is super interesting to me. My team
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it. Only thing I'll ever ask of you. Do
we have a deal? Let's get on with the
show.
Do you think this is um potentially the
decline of the what one might call the
American empire? I was um I was looking
at how long empires tend to last and I
was before you came and there's this
2000 250 year figure which is famously
popularized by a British historian
called Sir John Gub in his essay the
fate of empires and the search for
survival after analyzing empires from
the I can't say that wordians
>> Assyrians
>> exactly what I said Assyrians to the
British um club found that despite
differences in technology geography
religion and surprisingly shared a
similar lifespan standard life cycle.
Glob argued that empires typically go
through a predictable sequence of stages
over those 250 years. The first one
being the age of pioneers, outburst and
conquest. The age of conquest which is
the military dominance. The age of
commerce which is vast wealth creation.
The age of affluence, comfort and a
shift from duty to selfishness. The age
of intellect focus on philosophy and
education over defense. The age of
descendence, internal division, massive
inequality and collapse. So if you view
the United States as an expansionist
project from its very inception, pushing
westward across the North American
continent through its power, then the
math says if you take it from 1776 to
now to 2026, it's exactly 250 years old.
So if you use Gub's 2000 250ear life
cycle model from 1776 to now, political
scientists argue that we are in the age
of descendants of the American Empire.
This stage is typically characterized by
deep internal political division, vast
wealth inequality, massive national
debt, and a cultural shift away from a
shared sense of civic duty. So, first of
all, that's a pretty accurate
description of what's happening in the
United States. However, you have just
touched on something that I feel very
strongly about, which is that I don't
believe in historical inevitability.
>> Interesting.
>> And I I think is very dangerous. So the
idea that we are on a slippery slope
downhill and we can't stop it because
that's the way history is going or
alternative the idea that everything is
fine and it will continue to be fine
because liberal democracy has triumphed
which is what we thought in the 1990s.
Anytime you think that something is
inevitable that takes away your
willingness to act. Yeah.
>> What happens tomorrow and next year is
completely dependent on what we do
today. Whether the United States
survives as a democracy or not depends
on choices Americans make, things they
say, the arguments they have, you know,
the degree of civic participation, not
some historical rule that some very
brilliant political scientist invented.
And as I said, I think this has happened
before. I think we had this moment of
complacency after the fall of the Soviet
Union in the '90s. Americans and
Europeans became convinced that
everything was best in the best of all
possible worlds and we didn't have to do
anything in particular to maintain our
democracies because democracy was the
best system and we just won the Cold War
and it was all going to be fine and we
lost sight of the ways in which
democracy was beginning to slip and we
were beginning to lose things.
>> And I think it was sense of complacency
and above all it was a sense of
inevitability. It's inevitable. We've
won the war of ideas. the war of ideas
is over. And that's why we we missed the
rise of Russia. We missed the the
significance of China. And we missed a
lot of those things because we were so
sure that we were just winning.
>> Isn't that in and of itself a cycle?
>> It's a cycle. But my point is that the
cycles aren't predictable. I mean, you
can stop the cycle. You can reverse the
cycle. Countries can and do change their
trajectory. I say I've I've lived a lot
of my life in Poland. First went there
in the 1980s. My husband is Polish. So
on Poland is a completely different
country from what it was 30 years ago.
And it's a country that has really
changed itself in ways that weren't
necessarily predictable in 1990. And so
I I do think countries change. Is all of
this downstream
from something that doesn't change,
which is human nature. And therefore, if
we understand human nature as the
constant, then one can almost predict
these dare I say the word again, cycles
of how humans will go from there to d
>> human nature is a constant. But there is
so much accident in history and so many
random things happen that you can
sometimes predict how people will react,
but you can't necessarily
predict exactly what's coming. You know,
when Boris Yeltson was drunk and sick
and had to choose the next leader of
Russia, there were a number of choices
he had. And the person he chose was
Vladimir Putin, who at the time was a
very low ranking. I mean, he was a he
was a FSB. He came from the KGB and he
was someone they chose because they
thought he would be loyal to the Yeltson
family and he wouldn't prosecute them.
Nobody imagined him as a dictator or an
imperial leader who would be seeking to
reconquer the former Soviet Union. And
what if they'd chosen, for example,
Boris Nimsov, who was another leading
Russian politician at the time. You
know, I don't know that he was a perfect
Democrat, but he was very open-minded
and he would have been interested in
integrating Russia with Europe. Okay.
What if he'd become the leader of
Russia? We would be in a completely
different world. And why was there was
nothing inevitable about that decision.
There are many random completely out of
the blue things that happen in history.
You can always say there's always some
percentage of any population that's
instinctively authoritarian for example
and there's always some percentage of
any population that's instinctively
liberal or extinctly libertarian
>> because of egos and power
>> because of just the way people the human
nature have the people have different
but what is the balance of that group
how the leadership of the country
encourages or discourages one set of
values or the other you know that that
affects h you know who who's winning the
arguments um and so I I I don't believe
in inevitable cycles.
>> Have you heard of Ray Dalio talking
about the sort of boom and bust cycles
through history and when like a
population becomes very comfortable you
have this sort of inversion goes the
other way. Do you believe in those kinds
of cycles? You know, I suppose there is
a phenomenon whereby yes, as people
become comfortable, then if Frank
Fukiyama actually had in his famous book
about the end of history, he had a
description of well, what happens if we
have two, you know, if everybody becomes
a liberal democracy and everybody's
pretty prosperous, then the next thing
that will happen is some people will get
bored
>> and out of their boredom and out of
their desire for change, they'll attack
the system and and want to undermine it.
It's kind of what happened. So there's I
suppose there's some there's a there's
some human element like that you know
that the there will always be some part
of the population that feels left out or
feels discriminated against and and
wants a bigger voice or wants to run the
country. I mean so you can you can see
that I just don't think it's something
that scientists can predict.
>> Is there a link between democracies and
sort of rampant capitalism? So, in a
democracy, I don't know much about this
stuff, so I'm just asking the question.
But in a democracy, does it tend to be
the case that you end up with wealth
inequality because you let everybody,
you let free markets play out and then
you're going to have these like tech
oligarchs up here that have all
gazillions of dollars, a trillion
dollars, and lots of people at the
bottom of the rung. Whereas in I don't
know, in China, I guess they somewhat
defend. I don't know. Do they defend
against?
>> No, I would say almost the opposite. So,
historically, democracies have I mean,
there have been different phases, right?
So I don't want to overgeneralize but
certainly in the 20 second half of the
20th century the the democracies since
the second world war have tended towards
equality and including in the United
States and at their most successful and
prosperous moments people there was if
there was much less wealth equality than
inequality than there is now and the
countries we were talking about earlier
the happy countries those are relatively
equal countries and those are countries
with big welfare states and a lot of
redistribution of wealth and those are
countries where people feel invested in
the system partly because they don't
feel completely outclassed by a group of
oligarchs. If you look at the United
States in the 1950s, that was a period
of also huge social mobility when lower
middle class, middle- class people began
to get wealthier and there's this
enormous wave of prosperity and that's a
period when everybody is becoming
wealthier. And that was also a period
when you have the, you know, very
successful American democracy. You have
the civil rights movement. You have
democracy beginning to spread to new
populations or to people who'd been
excluded before. So you have a a
connection between equality and
democracy, wealth, even wealth equality.
And one of the things that gives critics
of the United States most anxiety now is
precisely what you just said, you know,
the emergence of tech oligarchs who have
so much more power than any one
politician and who even have the power
to to organize information space. How
long will that group of people want to
live in a democracy where everybody gets
a vote and wealth is supposed to be
distributed more evenly? There are some
members of that community who have
become illiberal or anti-democratic for
exactly that reason.
>> If we don't believe in inevitabilities,
then what is it we have to look out for
as those living in a democracy? We
talked about the five things there, but
are there anything is there anything
coming up where you're worried that as a
society we might overlook it or allow it
which results in us falling back down
into an autocratic society? And is there
anything we can do proactively now to
defend our democracy?
>> We are lucky in that we live in
societies where we can vote.
>> Mhm. Um, and so it's really important
that we vote, that we know who we're
voting for, that we vote in all
elections, including local ones. When
people become nihilistic, when they say,
"They're all the same. I don't care who
wins the election. It's not worth voting
because, you know, they're all corrupt."
This is what autocrats try to create.
So, what does Putin want Russians to do?
Does he want them to be political? No.
He wants them to stay out of politics.
You know, what do the Chinese want? they
want their people out of politics. And
so whenever you see too many people who
are have responded to that kind of
negative inspiration, that's when you
should worry. And I worry a lot about
the United States on exactly those
grounds. Actually, look at how the
leader of your country talks about the
press, how he or she talks about the
judges, the judiciary, how he or she
talks about the civil service. A real
Democrat respects those institutions and
wants them to stay in place precisely so
that democracy can remain so that at the
next election there will be a fair
election.
>> Do you think the the mainstream media
are politicized? Do you think there's
political bias in the mainstream media
like the big titles?
>> You know, some of them have business
models that are that are biased. So
Fox's business model is to appeal to the
right-leaning part of the American
population and to, you know, to
encourage them in their biases and get
them to watch TV. There's some media
that are now dependent on on
polarization and kind of live off it.
There are some who try to be neutral,
but you know, even neutrality is hard to
achieve now because a neutral
investigation that turns up something
bad about the Trump administration will
immediately incur the reaction on the
part, you know, you're biased. You we've
lost our our assumption that that press
are operating in good faith.
>> So, it's become much more difficult.
>> This is so interesting for me as a
podcaster who I guess now is considered
to be media. the like the inherent
incentives of media mean that like if
say I'm running X newspaper and I write
a story and I've built up a base of
people for whatever reason right that
want me to say something negative about
Trump I have an economic model and an
incentive structure that means that if I
write that article it's going to get 10
times the reach 10 times the engagement
10 times the subscribers if I write the
exact opposite article I know I'm going
to get so if I say Trump is amazing even
though I've built up a base that I think
a certain way the article is going to
get a fraction of the the reached
engagement subscribers. So, as a as a
CEO of such such a company, you're going
to have to hire more and more people,
create more and more output to receive
the same um rewards versus just writing
something bad about that particular
person. So, you become incentivized. But
then the other factor is that
geographically Democrats and Republicans
in the United States exist in certain
areas. So if I open my office in New
York or LA, most of the people I'm going
to be able to hire come with a certain
like statistically come with a certain
political view. So I I do wonder if
eventually like the fate of most media
organizations is they do get politically
captured one way or the other.
>> You have to fight it.
>> You have to fight. And as a podcaster,
yeah, cuz now I'm I'm part of the media.
I I now understand because I feel it.
>> So I feel that I sit here with Kamala
Harris, I'm attacked. I sit here with
Ivanka Trump, I'm attacked. I see it
with Michelle Obama attacked. Gavin
Newsome attacked.
And I understand there's this great
quote which I favored the other day. It
was like, "You have to join a tribe or
you get killed by one." Or something
words to that effect. And I I get it. I
get why some of my peers in podcasting
have sought defense behind a particular
tribe because just taking the arrows
from both sides is not the nicest
feeling in the world.
>> No, but
>> No. I mean, it's funny when you said
mainstream media. I don't even know who
that is anymore. It's not so much about
hearing from both sides. It's about
trying to establish what's true.
>> Yeah.
>> And so the job of what what you do is a
little bit different from what
journalists do. So journalists go into
the world and they gather information
and they if they're good journalists,
they try to figure out what actually
happened and then they bring it back and
they write it down or they make a video
about it and they try and make sure that
it's accurate, right? And so if you're
devoted to that project, then you you
seek to avoid political bias, but you
know, inevitably
you might wind up saying the president
is lying or the leader of the opposition
is lying. And then you're immediately,
you know, in the world of people
shouting at you and saying you're
biased.
>> Um, but I I do feel that it's really
important that this particular
profession of the people who go into the
world and try and establish reality that
it continues to exist.
>> I agree. You know,
>> there needs to be a business model for
that. I mean, for democracy to exist,
for an accurate and meaningful national
conversation to exist, we need to have
some people who are trying to figure out
what's real.
>> I agree. And I think those people are
incredibly important, which I think
people think podcasters won't say cuz I
think sometimes we're positioned as
being like the rebels or radicals or
whatever that are like doing it from
their kitchen. This did actually used to
be my kitchen. But um but I very much
agree. I very much agree that there are
incredibly
um rigorous truth seeeking journalists
out there that have this very unique
skill which is not one that I possess or
or test to possess at all that they go
deep for long periods of time without
bias in search of the truth and then
they deliver it to the world. And I'm
well aware that if we lose that, then I
lose so many of the things that I
fundamentally care about and that I've
built my entire life and career on,
especially as like a young black man in
business who understands that there's
lots of people that came before me that
revealed things about the way society
functioned that have benefited me. And
so that I should my way of sort of
paying that forward is protecting the
same privileges as a um as a podcaster.
is I mean there is a danger that we go
down a road in which especially as AI
develops and we get more and more of our
information online that we lose touch
with reality. Mhm.
>> You know, if if AI is only accessing
what's available to the, you know, to
the model online,
>> there's still a whole world out there
where things are happening, you know,
that that's not online and and the
making sure that we're constantly in
touch with what's what's reality on the
ground, what's really happening in
Ukraine, you know, what's really
happening in Iran, and not living on
just what's available to us on our
phones. It's really important. One of my
fears is that the the algorithms with AI
are becoming better at knowing what to
serve me in order to make me dwell and
therefore it creates more ad dollars for
the companies. And so I might not just
be living in a fake reality. I might be
living in a completely personalized one
that's completely different from your
own because as I went on my phone this
morning, one of the things the sections
on my phone is suggested for you. Now
this is obviously showing me things that
are based on my past viewing
consumption. So if I viewed this person
having a fight in the street, I'm
getting more people having fights in the
street. So now my perception is that
everyone's having fights in the street
and and that means it's harder to
connect to each other.
>> We are very much I mean I think this has
really happened already that we we live
in our own algorithms when you're asking
the more fundamental question about the
breakdown of democracy. I mean, there's
nothing more toxic to democracy than
polarization. Because if you live in a
world where the people on the other side
of the political divide aren't just your
rivals and you don't just disagree with
them about taxes, you know, but they are
your existential enemies and if they're
in charge, then you know, the world
ends, then it's very hard to have a
normal democratic debate or create a
normal, you know, have a normal
election.
>> Mhm.
Do you know what this is?
>> It looks like a very old newspaper.
>> Very old newspaper
from a long time ago.
And you're in it.
>> Gosh.
Oh, it's Wow. Uh, that's a um that was
that took a lot of research.
>> Yeah. What is that?
>> That is I don't they don't even have
these anymore. That was a New York Times
wedding announcement
>> from 1992. I think
>> 1992. married since 1992. I'm still
married to the person who it was
announced that I was marrying a Polish
He was then a journalist
>> and now he's the Polish foreign
minister. We got married in Washington,
but he was born in Poland and it's a
long story, but anyway,
>> lots of photos of you here.
>> Interesting. Oh, there's a nice one as
well. You're looking very presidential
there.
>> That was a long time ago.
>> And I've got another one of him and
Hillary Clinton.
>> Right.
Politics has been a big part of your
family's life in various ways.
>> I mean, it would be hard to deny that.
Yeah.
>> Is it stressful?
Cuz it's constant and it's and it's and
it's more polarizing than ever before
and it's divisive and it's it's a lot of
energy. Even talking about these things
I find to be quite um
energy draining.
>> Yes. I mean, actually, it became more
stressful in more recent years. I mean,
social media made it more stressful than
it used to be.
>> The stressful part is um living a part
of your life in public. We try to not
live all of our lives in public. This
has been very useful to me as a
journalist. Actually, you begin to
understand the difference between what
you look like in public and what your
reality is, you know. So, people react
to you in all kinds of ways depending on
how where they've seen you on TV or
where they've what stories they've read
about you, some of which might not be
true. And there's often a kind of, you
know, that the way you're perceived is
not necessarily the way you are. And so
I I try to keep that in mind when I meet
public figures, you know, that I have a
set of perceptions of them based on what
I've read about them,
>> which I wouldn't have if I met, I don't
know, somebody introduces me to the next
door neighbor. I wouldn't have that in
my head when I met them. But when you
meet a politician or somebody who's um
who's who's wellknown, you come with you
come with stuff. And I try when I meet
people to drop it as much as I can
>> because you've seen that at home.
>> Because I've seen it at home. So yes, I
mean we have compatible lives that are
somewhat different. I mean I have stayed
well away from Polish politics. I don't
play any role in it. I have a different
name from my husband which you know I
didn't change my name and that was also
has led us allowed us to be separate and
we share a lot of views but not all. Um,
and so we, you know, we have kind of
different trajectories, but as I said, I
find mostly knowing what it's like to be
a politician helps me understand them.
>> Have you ever thought about going into
politics yourself?
>> No.
>> You can't have two politicians, one
family.
>> You know, a lot of what I do is
journalism or it's something or
journalist adjacent. You know, I go in
and try and find things. I try and
explain them. I try and say what what I
think is happening. And the job of a
politician is quite different from that.
You know, it's to you arrive with a set
of views. You need to explain them to
people. You need to convince them. It's
just it's a different it's a different
way of thinking about approaching the
public. So, I'm not I'm not campaigning
for a for a cause.
>> Is there a particular outcome you're
seeking with the work that you do, with
the books that you write, and the
conversations you have? Is there one
particular outcome above all others that
you're aiming at?
There's an outcome that's general but
not specific. In other words, I'm not
trying to elect any particular person to
be president. I do have a goal that is
to remind people of why democracy is
important, why we need to maintain it
and to pay attention to the ways in
which it's declining so that we can
fight back. I mean, I have a I have a I
have a broad goal in that sense and
that's not only inside the United
States.
>> Why is this so personal to you?
It it's the thing I've been fascinated
by since I was in my 20s.
>> Why?
>> Because I think it's I saw the Soviet
Union when it was still the Soviet
Union. I was a student in Lennengrad
when it was still Lengrad. I felt what
it was like to live in a heavily
autocratic society even briefly. And I
had really spent the rest of my life
trying to understand what it was, how it
worked, why people went along with it.
And I've also spent a lot of time more
recently trying to warn people against
it, against going in that direction. You
know, it's also not the thing I thought
I would be doing. I changed um you know,
if you if you're looking at my books,
you know, I wrote three history books. I
wrote the Gulad book. I wrote a history
of the Ukrainian famine. I wrote a book
this is this is a book about how the
Soviet Union took over Eastern Europe.
How they sort of did regime change in
Eastern Europe after the war. You know,
they're about things that happened, you
know, in the distant past. But I had a
realization in about 2014 2015 that I
was living through a period of history
myself. In other words, there was a
historical shift happening around me and
I felt the need to start recording it as
a kind of eyewitness. And so that book
Twilight of Democracy was a description
I mean it starts with a description of a
party I gave and then the book is about
how people I knew had changed. I knew a
lot of people who had been very
radicalized. I knew lots of people on
the center right, you know, we were
anti-communists, we were, you know,
whatever, Thatcherites, Reganites, and I
saw many of them become more radical.
And I thought, this is a really
important moment of change, and so I
should record it as a witness. And so
that book is the first book that I wrote
in the first person about something I'd
seen. And that was just me being
affected by the world I live in. Maybe
it did matter that I was married to a
politician because some things that you
would have noticed in a more distant way
affected me personally.
>> Mhm.
>> Maybe it was
the particular circumstances of being
both American and Polish and you know
seeing a similar pattern of things
happening in both places. Either way, I
I felt that something important was
happening and I've really been motivated
for the last decade to explain it to
people and try and understand it.
>> In that regard, what is the most
important thing we haven't talked about
that we should have talked about? Um,
>> what would regime change really look
like
>> in our countries?
>> Oh, in the west?
>> Yes.
>> Isn't it just electing a new person?
>> What would it feel like to live in a
very different kind of society? How
would you feel living in a place where
suddenly the values shifted? They were
different
>> for better or for less.
>> For the, you know, the the, you know, we
think, for example, free speech is is a
value and we've been arguing about it
here. What does it mean? what's hate
speech, you know, how do we measure it
and so on. What if you suddenly found
yourself waking up one morning in a
society where free speech was bad,
>> you know, where it wasn't? You didn't
automatically assume that it was good.
We also have an assumption that there is
some kind of meritocracy in our
societies, right? That if you try hard
and work hard and maybe you're lucky and
study, then you can be successful. What
if you found yourself suddenly in a
society where that wasn't true and
actually the only way to get ahead was
to have a cousin in the ruling party?
Being able to imagine that and think
about it um is important for
understanding this bigger issue of
democratic decline like what's the
change of our system that we're trying
to avoid and what does it feel like to
people who experience that. So this has
been a subject of a lot of my books. So
that book Iron Curtain is about it. I've
written a lot about Ukraine and what
happened when the Russians occupied
eastern Ukraine. They did this thing.
They did regime change. They change the
rules of the society. I think we don't
reflect enough about what what are the
what are the deep rules of the societies
we live in and what we would lose if we
lost them.
Hm.
it seems unimaginable and it seems quite
far away and that is I guess a privilege
of having lived in a democratic society
for my whole life that it's almost just
seem like as I said like it seems like a
theoretical concept but you know history
they say it doesn't repeat but it rhymes
and um I guess there's you know I I
believe that even if we don't know the
time frames I do believe that there are
certain cycles in history that are um
accelerate or come about because of
human nature and so But I'm also well
aware that there are things that we can
do or not do that could lead us to go
down the uh the slope of
a bad a bad slope.
>> So then you don't believe in
inevitability.
>> Well, it's interesting. I kind of
believe in both, which is I think that
there's this fundamental human nature
which drives us which um causes these
cycles to occur. And actually, one could
even argue that it's inevitable that
eventually we miss the signs and we go
down the slope. But the time frames of
that occurring or if it occurs there we
still have agency and control over that.
Does that make sense or is that does
that sound like a total contradiction to
believe in both human nature does cause
these cycles but but at the same time
today we have a choice. We have agency
over whether we go in that direction.
>> Yeah. Hum I mean human nature is like we
know how it works and so it offers us
some warnings right. It it's you know we
we know what we should be trying to
avoid. Mhm.
>> As I said, if you if you focus hard on
what it is that you don't want to
happen, I mean, that's what strategy is,
right? And then you work backwards and
you think, how do I how do I make sure
to prevent that from happening, you
know? Then you you begin to get a pretty
clear idea of what's useful behavior in
the present.
>> We have a closing tradition and where
the last guest leaves a question for the
next guest, not knowing who they're
leaving it for.
And the question left for you,
what is the most challenging setback
you've experienced and what's the lesson
you want to pass on to others?
I suppose the most I mean the most
challenging things I've experienced have
been political shifts where I when I saw
radicalization I saw the rise of
illiberal groups and movements including
among people I knew close closely and
very well and figuring out both how to
cope with them and how to trying to
under you know shift my thinking in
order understand how to explain it and
deal with it. That was probably the most
important.
That was probably the most important.
>> How do you cope with them?
>> Someone in your life has a sort of
>> bad at it.
>> Really
>> interesting.
>> I um I mean lots of people think that um
you know you should be able to you know
be friends with everybody and talk to
everybody and I see that. I see some
people are able to do that. I find that
I care too much.
>> Interesting.
>> It becomes hard for me. Do you think you
could interview as a journalist? Do you
think you could interview anybody?
>> Probably could interview anybody. I
mean, there would be some people who are
hard to interview because they lie, you
know, for example, and then I don't know
how to deal with that. Then you don't
want to have an interview where you're
correcting somebody the whole time.
>> I would certainly talk to anybody as a
journalist.
>> Would you interview Trump?
>> Yeah. I mean, he he would have he would
pose exactly that problem because how
would you deal with the fact that he's
saying something that's not true? Would
you then say, "But Mr. the president
that's not true and then go down that
road of arguing with him or would you um
or would you just listen and write it
down?
>> So you're worried it wouldn't be
productive?
>> I'm worried it wouldn't be productive.
>> That that's also my line to be honest
with um with people is there's certain
people that are really consequential so
you feel you should interview them but
part of me worries that some of them
wouldn't be it wouldn't be productive
anyway.
>> So I wouldn't get anything out of them
that is new or useful or productive. So,
>> right. I mean, I would I would talk to
anybody who is who with whom you can
have an argument and who's reality
based.
>> Mhm. And my other thing is just people
that don't take things off the record
because sometimes when we ask to
interview people, they'll say, "Yes, but
as long as you don't talk about this and
for me that's a no-go."
>> Well, I didn't take anything off the
record.
>> You didn't? Thank you. I appreciate
that. Um, well, you have so many
wonderful books. I heard there's also a
cookbook which I didn't manage to locate
which is a bit of a diversion from from
your subject matter but um they are
brilliant books and the reason why I I
was very keen for my team to reach out
to you and ask you to come today was
because not because just you write great
books but you're a real demystifying
force in a world that's becoming
incredibly misty for many of us in part
because there's just so much information
accessible to all of us now. But I
highly recommend people go check out
these wonderful books. I'm going to link
them all below and many of them are a
continuation of the themes and subjects
we've talked about or adjacent stories
from history. But you're a remarkable
storyteller an and that's why I think
people love listening to you so much. So
I really appreciate you taking the time
today to um help demystify all of this
for me. I actually have never had a
conversation that is so centered on the
the subject of democracy. I've heard
people talking about it for the last 10
years as this sort of this thing that
matters. But this conversation has
really opened my eyes to both the value
of it, but also the risks and the
slippery slope that causes societies to
lose it. So, thank you so much for doing
what you do because it's incredibly
important. And as a as a 33-year-old
that's lived most of my life in the
West, um it's very easy to take
democracy as a subject for granted.
>> I think I have, to be honest.
>> Yes. Well, it's it's it's normal. It's
it's it's the it's the water we swim in.
We're the fish, you know, and the idea
that there would someday not be water is
unimaginable.
>> But thank you for asking such um such
penetrating questions. Thank you.
>> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm
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Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
This video features a discussion with journalist Anne Applebaum about the risks of democratic decline, the nature of autocracy, and the current political situation in the United States. Applebaum, an expert on Soviet history and authoritarian regimes, outlines the five core tactics autocrats use to dismantle democracy: controlling information, manipulating elections, corrupting the civil service, utilizing paramilitary forces, and corrupting the justice system. She emphasizes that democracy is fragile and not historically inevitable, noting that modern authoritarianism often happens through elected officials who slowly dismantle democratic institutions from within rather than through sudden coups. The conversation also explores how global political alliances are shifting, how the U.S. is being perceived by international partners, and why maintaining a free, neutral press is vital for a functional democratic society.
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