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The Bull is Back. Stock Market Correction is Over

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The Bull is Back. Stock Market Correction is Over

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571 segments

0:00

It's the 1st of February and also the

0:02

start of the Chinese Lunar New Year,

0:04

which I believe the Vietnamese and the

0:06

Koreans do celebrate as well. I think

0:08

it's similar to their new year. Anyway,

0:10

fun fact. So, this year is the year of

0:12

the tiger and I was born in the year of

0:15

the tiger and in case you don't know in

0:16

the Chinese horoscope, the animal

0:18

changes every 12 years. So, this year

0:22

I'm 48 years old. So, I was born again

0:27

1974 and so now is the tiger year. So,

0:29

tiger year is supposed to be

0:31

pretty good if you're a tiger. So, let's

0:34

see how it goes this year. So, here's a

0:35

quick update on the markets. As you guys

0:38

know, in my previous videos I mentioned

0:39

that

0:40

at the start of the year,

0:43

the market started on a downtrend after

0:46

rallying really strongly

0:48

at the end of last year.

0:50

Some bullish news for you. From what I

0:52

see from the price action, it looks like

0:54

for now the correction is over. That's

0:57

right and it looks like the bull market

1:00

is in full force once again. So, why do

1:02

I say that? Well, first of all, if you

1:04

take a look at the weekly candles,

1:07

you can see that we had a very strong

1:09

bullish signal

1:11

over here when

1:13

the market closed on the on Friday. I

1:16

believe it was the 28th. Was it the 28th

1:19

on Friday?

1:20

The weekly candle closed as what we call

1:24

an ice cream bar, which is very similar

1:26

to the pin bar except it's kind of like

1:28

the pin bar's fat cousin, right? So,

1:29

you've got a long shadow and you've got

1:32

a body there. So, that's a bullish

1:34

signal only if it's at a strong level of

1:38

support

1:39

and it's also a double bottom, all

1:41

right? So, you can see that there was a

1:43

support level over here. So, market goes

1:46

up, goes down and it goes slightly below

1:49

that support.

1:51

And this is a very, very common pattern

1:54

where we call it a a

1:56

double bottom where see people who

1:58

bought the market here

2:00

traders they would have put their stop

2:01

losses right below that previous swing

2:04

low. So, what market makers and

2:07

algos they manipulate the markets,

2:09

right? They push the market down just

2:11

enough to hit the stop losses of these

2:14

retail traders causing them to sell.

2:17

Remember, when retail traders get their

2:19

stop loss hit and they are forced to

2:22

sell their stock, someone buys the

2:23

stock, all right? So, who buys the

2:25

stock? The big boys. The market makers

2:28

they buy the stock. So, when the big

2:29

boys the and the market makers buy the

2:31

stock, is that in their interest to push

2:33

the markets up again. So, every time the

2:35

price goes down, hits previous stop

2:38

losses, takes out the stop losses

2:40

and you see that it closes back above

2:43

that previous swing low with a bullish

2:45

candlestick pattern like a pin bar, an

2:47

ice cream bar, bullish engulfing

2:49

pattern, that is usually a sign that

2:51

this current correction is kind of over.

2:54

Now, again, it's not 100%

2:56

but it's a high probability, right? So,

2:59

on on Friday, which was

3:02

let's see, 1 2 Yeah, 3 days ago, that

3:05

was the first sign of a bottom. And I

3:08

told my students, I said, you know what,

3:09

there's a kind of like a good chance

3:11

that we have bottomed, but I need a

3:14

second con- confirmation on the daily

3:16

candles.

3:17

And we got that confirmation yesterday

3:20

on the 31st of January. On the daily

3:22

candles, we had a confirmation of the

3:25

correction. Why? Because if you take a

3:27

look at the daily candles,

3:29

you can see that

3:32

uh we managed on the S&P close back

3:35

above the 200 moving average. So,

3:38

whenever the price goes below the 200

3:40

moving average

3:41

and then

3:42

is able to close back above the 200-day

3:45

moving average within 5 days, that's a

3:47

very strong bullish signal. So, you can

3:49

see it went down, right? 1 2, 3, 4, 5.

3:54

Within 5 days,

3:56

it's back up again, closed back above

3:57

the 200 moving average. That's a very,

3:59

very strong bullish signal, right? And

4:01

again, take a look. This was a previous

4:04

swing low, support. And again, look at

4:07

that pattern, right? So, takes out the

4:09

stop losses of retail traders.

4:12

Whoever entered here, put their stop

4:13

losses, it took it out. Once stop losses

4:16

are taken out,

4:18

and retail traders are forced to sell

4:20

cuz of stop losses, who buys? Someone

4:22

has to buy again, right? So, it's the

4:23

market makers who buy, the big boys who

4:25

buy, people like me. I've been buying

4:26

like crazy, right? So, after buying,

4:29

buying, buying, it's time to go up. And

4:30

now, hallelujah, looks like we are going

4:32

up again. Now again, remember, there are

4:34

no guarantees in life, right? It could

4:36

always come back down again, but it's a

4:38

matter of probabilities. It look like

4:40

looks like again, for now,

4:42

uh this correction is over, and it looks

4:44

like we're going to continue rallying at

4:46

least for the next few days.

4:49

So,

4:51

what does this mean for investors and

4:53

traders? Well, first of all, for

4:54

investors, I hope that you have been

4:56

buying greedily in the last couple of

4:59

days.

5:00

Because again, as investors, you take

5:02

corrections as opportunities to add

5:04

shares of great businesses. So, I've

5:07

been buying like crazy. I've been buying

5:08

Microsoft, Visa, I've been buying

5:11

Salesforce,

5:13

I've been buying BlackRock. So, I've

5:14

been buying all these companies in the

5:16

last uh couple of days, and getting them

5:19

at really bargain prices.

5:21

It's very interesting to

5:23

uh look at comments from people. Um and

5:26

you know, people always ask this

5:27

question, you know, "Should I buy this

5:28

dip? Should I buy this dip?" It's always

5:30

that question, right? "What if it dips

5:31

further? What if it dips further?"

5:33

Now, to answer that question, "Should I

5:35

buy this dip?"

5:37

first you have to ask yourself, are you

5:38

an investor

5:40

or are you a trader? So, first, let's

5:41

talk about investment first, and then

5:43

I'll talk about trading in a while,

5:44

right? So, first of all, for investing,

5:48

should you buy this dip depends on

5:49

number one,

5:50

what are you buying?

5:52

Okay? So, as an investor, remember, when

5:55

you buy a stock, you're buying a piece

5:58

of an underlying business. Now, if you

6:00

buy

6:01

a share of an underlying business that's

6:03

a that's a great company, that's a

6:05

fundamentally great company, it will

6:07

always go up. It will always go up

6:09

eventually. All right? So, you got to

6:11

buy good companies.

6:13

So, again, what are good companies? Good

6:14

companies are companies that are

6:16

actually making money.

6:18

They have got a sustainable competitive

6:20

advantage.

6:21

And so, when companies really make

6:23

money,

6:24

these dips are great times to buy these

6:26

companies.

6:28

But, avoid buying companies that are not

6:31

making money, that you're buying it

6:33

purely for speculation. So, you don't

6:35

want to do that, because those may not

6:37

bounce back.

6:39

You want to buy good companies. So,

6:40

again, let me give you a few examples.

6:41

I've given many examples in my videos,

6:43

but

6:44

let me show you again. So, I've been

6:46

buying a lot of Adobe. Why? Because it's

6:48

a great business. And why is it a great

6:49

business? Because it's making money.

6:52

Take a look at the financials of Adobe.

6:55

All right? So, this is

6:58

Adobe. And if you look at

7:01

the financials, look at the revenue,

7:02

right? So, the revenue is increasing

7:05

consistently, which means year after

7:07

year after year, they are generating

7:09

more sales.

7:10

Pandemic or no pandemic, recession or no

7:13

recession, high interest rates or low

7:14

interest rates.

7:16

These are companies that are resilient

7:18

and predictable, because they make money

7:20

under all circumstances. So, when you

7:22

buy these kind of companies, you can

7:24

sleep soundly at night. Sleep soundly at

7:27

night, all right? So, cuz even if the

7:29

share price goes down temporarily, you

7:31

know that it doesn't matter, because

7:33

it's a solid company. The price will

7:35

will bounce back as fast eventually and

7:38

go higher, right? So, revenue's going

7:40

up, and more importantly, net profit is

7:42

also increasing consistently. And the

7:45

company has got a lot of cash, right?

7:46

It's got a lot of cash, even more cash

7:48

than that. Can pay back all its debt

7:51

tomorrow and be debt free if it wanted

7:53

to. Okay?

7:55

And even more important than earnings

7:56

would be cash flow.

7:59

So, you can see operating cash flow,

8:00

free cash flow increasing consistently.

8:02

So, these are the kind of companies that

8:04

I buy as an investor. Okay?

8:07

So, you have to buy this kind of

8:09

company. So, I've been buying a lot of

8:10

Adobe. I've been buying a lot of

8:12

Microsoft, all right? Again, same thing.

8:14

Look at Microsoft. Look at the business

8:16

of Microsoft, right? Sales going up

8:19

consistently every single year, almost

8:21

every year.

8:22

Profits going up, lots of cash, very low

8:25

debt.

8:27

And again, increasing

8:29

free cash flow.

8:31

Another example, I'll give you one more

8:33

for now, would be um

8:36

Salesforce, all right? So, Salesforce,

8:39

again, take a look at the financials.

8:41

Great financials, right? Sales going up,

8:44

and the profit looks very low in

8:46

relation to the sales, but it's not low.

8:48

If you take a closer look over here, you

8:51

can see, right? Profits increasing,

8:54

right?

8:55

Uh more importantly, operating cash flow

8:58

and free cash flow and a ton of cash,

9:01

more than debt.

9:02

So, these are great companies that you

9:04

want to accumulate during corrections,

9:07

during dips.

9:09

And again, if you take a look at the

9:11

individual companies themselves, if you

9:12

look at, for example, Adobe, do you see

9:15

the same pattern? Yes, you do. You see

9:17

the same uh

9:20

double bottom pattern, right? So, again,

9:22

if you look at the weekly charts of

9:24

Adobe, notice that it's a very strong

9:26

support at that orange line, at this 100

9:29

moving average. So, it came down, it hit

9:33

this same moving average over over very

9:35

strong support, and now it's bouncing

9:38

back up, right? And again, take a look

9:39

at this line over here. You can see this

9:43

line

9:45

was a previous

9:48

resistance turn support. Can you see

9:50

this line?

9:51

Right? Resistance, resistance,

9:53

resistance.

9:55

Okay? So, resistance once broken comes

9:57

back down, becomes

9:59

support, right? So, you can see the

10:01

price goes down, and again, what does it

10:03

do? It goes below that support level. We

10:06

call this taking out stops. Again,

10:08

right? Take out the stops and flush out

10:11

the retail traders who panic and sell,

10:14

and market goes up again, all right?

10:17

So, very, very clear pattern on that.

10:18

Look at Salesforce,

10:20

same thing.

10:23

Look at the strong support at the 150

10:27

moving average, the green line, right?

10:29

Same support over there, coming down,

10:31

taking out previous stop losses, and

10:33

then pushing it back up again. Another

10:35

example would be, again, Microsoft.

10:38

Same pattern.

10:41

Right? And you can see Microsoft is

10:42

very, very

10:44

predictable, all right? You can see 100

10:47

50 moving average, very strong support.

10:49

Every time there's a big correction, the

10:52

this always holds. Check it out, right?

10:54

So, the 50 always holds, the 50 always

10:56

holds

10:58

in big corrections, and this time, same

11:00

thing.

11:04

Hits the 50 moving average. Oops.

11:07

Hold on, let me zoom in again.

11:10

Yeah.

11:11

Hits the 50 moving average,

11:13

and again, stop losses are here, placed

11:16

by traders. Take out the stop losses,

11:19

force retail traders are forced to sell,

11:21

market makers pick them up, and they

11:23

push the stock up again, right? So,

11:25

again, should you buy the dip? First

11:26

question is, yes, if you're buying great

11:29

companies that are making money. No, if

11:32

you're buying companies that are not

11:33

making money and are purely speculative.

11:37

But people always afraid, but Adam, you

11:39

know, what if I buy the dip and it dips

11:41

lower, all right? Now, the trouble of a

11:44

lot of investors is they always want to

11:46

buy at the lowest price, which is

11:47

impossible. It is impossible to always

11:49

buy at the lowest price. So, if you

11:51

always expect to buy the lowest price,

11:53

often times you will never buy.

11:56

Because as it's going down, you keep

11:57

saying it's going to go lower, going to

11:58

go lower, right? But sure enough, it

12:01

will always reverse up before you buy.

12:03

And once it reverses up, you say, "How

12:05

can I buy it now when it's higher? I

12:07

should have bought then. I'm going to

12:09

wait for it to come back down." And it

12:10

doesn't come back down. So, in the end,

12:12

you never buy, right?

12:14

So, the point is

12:15

for me as an investor, I never have

12:17

illusions that I'll buy at the lowest

12:20

price. I never have I I never have these

12:23

delusions cuz I know that I can never

12:25

buy at the lowest price. After I buy, it

12:27

could go lower, but it doesn't matter as

12:29

long as I buy near the lows, not at the

12:33

lows.

12:34

And to ensure that I buy near the lows,

12:36

and you know what? I know that no one

12:38

can predict the bottom for certainty and

12:39

I don't pretend to. So, what I do is

12:42

when I buy shares, as a lot of you know,

12:44

I never buy at once. I always buy in

12:47

stages. I buy in tranches. So, for

12:49

example, if I

12:50

intend to buy 100 shares of Microsoft,

12:53

you know, I don't buy 100 shares at

12:55

once. I'll buy 25 shares first.

12:58

All right? And if it goes a bit lower, I

13:00

buy a bit more. But so, I keep averaging

13:02

in my position. So, by averaging in,

13:05

after I buy the first time, I mean, buy

13:07

more at a lower price, at a lower price.

13:09

Or sometimes after I buy, it goes up and

13:11

I buy a bit more as it goes up. So, you

13:12

get you get an average. So, that's the

13:14

point for investing, all right? And when

13:16

you invest,

13:18

you know, you you take a longer term

13:20

view. And sure, it may not go up

13:21

tomorrow or next week or next month, but

13:24

if you buy a good company that's

13:25

undervalued, you know that it's going to

13:27

go up uh higher eventually. So, that's

13:30

for investing.

13:31

Now, how about for trading?

13:33

Now, trading is different because

13:34

trading is is short-term. You want to

13:36

get in, get out within

13:39

a week, 2 weeks, a swing trade. So, for

13:41

trading, you don't buy while it's going

13:43

down, right? You wait for a bullish

13:45

confirmation

13:47

uh before you enter a trade. So, right

13:49

now, there is a bullish confirmation on

13:51

daily candles. And for my trades, yes, I

13:54

will look for trade setups.

13:57

And then I execute the trades using

13:59

option strategies like credit spreads or

14:02

diagonal spreads, for example. And

14:05

what I do is once I see a bullish

14:07

confirmation

14:08

in the markets, I'll then screen

14:11

for potential trade setups. So, one of

14:13

the screeners I use uses over here. Let

14:16

me just show you an example of my

14:17

screener.

14:19

Right.

14:20

So, this is my slingshot screener.

14:26

And this screens uh couple of these

14:29

stocks, right? So, one of the stocks

14:30

that it screens out is Tesla.

14:33

But for trading, it's a bit of a high

14:35

price to size a position. So, let's look

14:38

at LRCX.

14:41

Now, by the way, this was the trade I

14:42

already entered a few days ago. All

14:45

right? In fact, uh you can see and let

14:47

me just show you my chat group. If I

14:50

type LRCX,

14:53

you can see I already entered this,

14:54

right? Um

14:57

there.

14:58

Right? So, you can see I entered this

15:01

on the 29th of January. Okay? So, I

15:04

entered this a few days ago already. And

15:06

you can see why.

15:09

Uh I explained over here.

15:11

Right? Take a look.

15:12

Right?

15:14

So, you can see that I entered right

15:16

after this bullish pin bar. All right?

15:18

So, the price comes down, it hits this

15:21

very strong support level, takes out

15:25

stop losses.

15:27

And

15:28

you can see that it's also hitting the

15:30

lower end of the Bollinger Bands, right?

15:32

So, Bollinger Bands are oversold. On the

15:36

Williams percentage R, it is oversold.

15:38

So, I've got two indicators telling me

15:40

that this stock is oversold on the

15:42

Bollinger Bands,

15:44

on the Williams percentage R,

15:46

and it's making a double bottom with a

15:50

bullish pin bar. So, we call that a

15:51

confluence of bullish patterns, right?

15:54

So, I was pretty confident that it's

15:56

going to start bouncing back up. So,

15:58

what I did was I said, "Okay,

16:01

um

16:03

LRCX bouncing off support level 50

16:06

moving average still above 150. I'm

16:08

going long." So, I enter a bull put

16:11

spread extreme and on LRCX, right? Bull

16:14

put spread extreme is basically a credit

16:16

spread. So, you can see my trade over

16:18

here.

16:19

Uh I sold the 450 put and bought the 440

16:23

put for a $100 contract credit.

16:27

All right. So, that's when I first

16:29

entered this on the 29th of January. But

16:31

right now, uh you can see since I

16:33

entered it here,

16:35

right? I got in on this day. So, right

16:37

now it's really gone up, but it's still

16:39

a valid trade because there's still

16:41

quite a way more for it to rise, okay?

16:44

And again, this appears on my screener,

16:47

okay?

16:48

So, let me show you another example

16:50

um

16:51

that appeared on the screener as well

16:53

today

16:55

um that's pretty interesting. Let's see.

16:56

We've got uh Walmart, okay? So,

16:59

Walmart's another one, but earnings are

17:01

coming up, so I'm not taking the trade.

17:03

So, I avoid trading

17:05

stocks where earnings are going to be

17:07

announced soon, right? But if not for

17:09

the earnings, Walmart would be a trade

17:11

I'll take as well. Why? Take a look.

17:14

Support, support,

17:17

support. Can you see a strong support?

17:18

And again, this goes lower than previous

17:21

supports taking out stop losses. We call

17:23

that a

17:25

double bottom.

17:26

Taking out stops. And again, you can see

17:28

hitting the lower Bollinger Bands,

17:30

oversold on Bollinger Bands.

17:32

You can see oversold on the stochastics.

17:35

Now, you can use stochastics or Williams

17:37

R. Doesn't matter, it's the same thing.

17:38

Both are oscillators, right? And again,

17:40

you can see a very nice ice cream bar

17:43

now with a very strong bullish candle

17:45

and looks like it's going to pop back up

17:47

to at least this resistance at 146.5.

17:51

So, a bit of upside to this trade, but

17:54

I'm not taking this because of earnings.

17:56

It's going to announce earnings in a

17:57

while and earnings can screw up the

17:59

trade, all right? So, always avoid

18:01

earnings in trading. But for investing,

18:04

I don't care about earnings. I'm holding

18:05

for the long run. I'll just hold it.

18:07

Let's see there are there any other

18:08

interesting trades

18:10

that appeared today?

18:12

Um

18:14

No, I don't think there are, right? Let

18:16

me just take a look at

18:18

uh Kelly C.

18:20

Now, this one no.

18:23

Okay, let me see if there's another one

18:25

I saw.

18:26

Okay, now this one.

18:30

All right, this one could be interesting

18:31

as well, right? Uh ADP. ADP. Uh why?

18:35

Because again, if you

18:39

Let me draw this line over here.

18:42

Okay.

18:42

So, again, you can see this same

18:44

pattern, right? So, this is a previous

18:46

swing low. This is it is takes out that

18:49

swing low, right? Forces the stop losses

18:51

to be hit, closes with a bullish pin

18:54

bar, Bollinger Bands

18:57

um

18:58

lower Bollinger Bands be lower Bollinger

19:00

Bands being hit,

19:02

uh stochastics oversold. So, again, we

19:05

call this a slingshot setup and highly

19:08

likely you're going to make a bounce

19:09

right here right now. Okay?

19:12

So, just sharing how I make my

19:15

investment and trading decisions. And

19:16

again, looks like for now, the market's

19:18

back on the bull mode. Correction for

19:20

now looks over. But again, doesn't mean

19:23

that this is the only correction for the

19:25

year.

19:26

There could be many more corrections to

19:28

come for the rest of the year and for

19:30

the rest of the decade. So, if you

19:31

missed out buying great companies during

19:34

this correction, don't fret. Be patient

19:36

because there will be, you know, coming

19:38

corrections as well. But for now, it

19:39

looks like we are now back on rally mode

19:42

in the US markets. So, have a happy

19:44

Lunar New Year New Year and gong xi fa

19:46

cai. If you don't know what that means,

19:48

if you translate gong xi fa cai, it

19:50

means I hope you get rich. And that's

19:51

how Chinese people greet each other at

19:54

the start of every new year because

19:55

we're the most capitalistic uh people in

19:58

the world. All right.

19:59

So, may the markets be with you and I'll

20:01

see you in the next video. If you want

20:03

to catch my latest videos, click on the

20:04

subscribe button right now. Click on the

20:07

bell so you get instant notifications

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once I upload my latest video. If you

20:11

want to check out my online courses, go

20:13

to piranaprofits.com.

20:16

We're going to learn how to invest and

20:17

how to trade the financial markets and

20:19

create an income from all around the

20:21

world.

20:22

If you want to join my live wealth

20:24

academy program, go on to

20:26

wealthacademyglobal.com

20:28

and find out more about how you can

20:29

learn investing and trading live online.

20:31

This is Adam Khoo and may the markets be

20:33

with you.

Interactive Summary

This video provides an update on the US stock market, suggesting that the recent downward correction has likely ended, with the market shifting back into a bull trend. The speaker highlights key technical indicators like 'ice cream bars' (a variation of pin bars), double bottoms, and the S&P 500 closing back above the 200-day moving average as signals of a recovery. The speaker discusses his strategy for investing versus trading, emphasizing that investors should accumulate shares of fundamentally strong, money-making companies during market dips, while traders should rely on specific bullish confirmations and technical indicators before entering positions.

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