The UNTHINKABLE is About to Happen to Stocks
705 segments
Some of the biggest and most profitable
tech stocks have barely moved in two
years, while the NASDAQ has exploded up
by 70% in the same period. And that has
created a powder cake opportunity for
us. I'm the guy who bought oil stocks 6
months before the war broke out, not
because I have a crystal ball, but
because I could see the big money moving
into oil stocks. And I'm up very nicely
about 60% on this right now. while the
S&P has moved just about 9%. So, I made
like five times more than the market.
And I believe this rotation could be
even bigger and faster. Why? Because I
noticed that the big money is moving
faster and faster from bucket to bucket,
from sector to sector. And they hop. And
the truth that nobody wants to tell you
is that Wall Street no longer buy stocks
for their quality. They don't care about
profits. They don't care about
management. Now time has passed. All
they care about now is mment. And it may
sound fickle. And I know you're used to
this buy and hold philosophy, right?
We've all been taught it. Our parents
were taught it. But if you don't
understand this, I believe you're going
to get left behind. You will hold tech
stocks and you'll make like 0%. Or the
NASDAQ does 70%. or you play it safer
and you buy the S&P and you'll make
single digits like 9% since the before
the war broke out. And people like me
made five times that because we bought
oil stocks at the right moment. So in
the next 20 minutes, I'm going to
explain this opportunity to you. I'm
going to give you both an ETF, so an
index fund and three individual stock
opportunities. And if you want to
understand that, stick around. I warn
you though, the video is going to be
fairly information dense. Even though
I'm I'm on the move here. I'm in the
south of France, as you can maybe see in
the in the window there, the reflection.
But to make this really really land for
you, I'm going to give you more than
just this video. I'm going to give you a
full bonus free research report on
everything I'm covering here, plus more
we have time for in the short videos.
You can download that for free at
felixfrren.org/software.
So, it's free, and I mean truly free.
It's just there for you. Take advantage
of it. Links down below in the
description.
Now, let me show you something first
that most people are missing. Over the
last two years, two things have happened
that created a crazy mismatch. The
NASDAQ 100 tracked by QQQ, if you're an
index fund investor, it's up about 70%
in the last two years. So, if you put
$10,000 into the NASDAQ in 2024, you'd
have about $17,000 right now, which is
pretty good, right? But the biggest tech
stocks out there, the software
companies, they didn't just go up
slower. So they actually went down in
the same time period. We're talking
about a decline of about 8%. So instead
of 10K turning into 17K, you'd be
sitting at $9,000 in a bit while your
friend who just bought the NASDAQ index
made loads of money. How is that
possible? That software which is
supposed to be the future is going down
while everything else is going up
massively. That's exactly why this is
creating an opportunity. Of course, the
question becomes why does the gap exist?
Right? A couple things you need to
understand and then I'm going to walk
you through the actual stocks. So why
would professional investors, the people
managing billions of dollars,
deliberately bet against software? Now
the answer will tell you everything you
need to know. There is a narrative on
Wall Street. Very powerful narrative.
Powerful enough that hedge funds, the
smartest money in the world, are betting
billions of dollars against it. And
they've been doing it for two years.
They've made lots of money on this. So
they've been right in a sense. In a
sense, they make their own right and
wrong. And their story is this. AI is
going to kill all software companies.
Why? Because AI can do what their
software companies can do, but better
and faster and cheaper, which sounds
scary, right? If you're a software
investor. So hedge funds decided to make
money on the fear. They might have also
had something to do with creating the
fear because these talking heads go on
on television, right? So those hedge
funds so far have made $24 billion
betting that software stocks would go
down. Think about that. $24 billion on
one bet. And when that much money is
betting on one direction, it creates an
imbalance. Think about it this way. If
all your friends are standing on one
side of a boat, what happens? You move
the whole boat, right? Everyone's
crowded on one side. The boat gets, you
know, lopsided. But here's the thing
about boats. The more crowded one side
gets, the more likely this to tip the
other way because people will notice it
and go, "Oh my god, we're going to fall
over. Let's run to the other side." And
then everybody wants the other side and
you do the opposite. Right? Is that a
nice illustration? Me leaning left and
right. So this video isn't about
convincing you whether or not AI will
kill software. Doesn't matter. I'm here
to show you how to potentially profit
from what happens next. Regardless of
what happens to this software, the
bottom line is that investing used to be
like planting trees. You buy a famous
company, you plant it in your brokerage
account, and you ignore it, and you
check back in 20 years, and what a
beautiful tree would be. But today, the
world changes too fast for that. Because
of AI and technology shifts, a company
that looks like a mighty oak today can
be chopped down into chopsticks in just
two years. So if you just buy and hold
one company forever, you might end up
holding it all the way down to zero. So
what does Wall Street do instead? What
do the pros do instead? They surf.
Instead of marrying a stock, I always
say don't marry the stock, marry the
girl. So you understand that concept
now. Maybe you're still doubtful, but
here's the thing. Understanding the
framework and the concept isn't enough.
You need to actually position for it.
And there is a very specific time window
to do that. Do you remember the big IPO
boom? The last one? Not SpaceX. I'm
talking 2020. Airbnb, Coinbase, Roblox,
Rivian. Where were you when that was
happening? Did you make money? Or maybe
you made some money and then you handed
it back to the nice fell on Wall Street
because he really needed another
Lamborghini. Or maybe you just sat on
the sidelines and you were waiting for
the dip, right? Other people made 10
times their money. So be honest with
yourself for a moment here and try to
remember that period because nobody
wants to admit exactly this. The people
who build real wealth, the kind that
changes your future, your family's
future for generations, they do it by
recognizing moments and patterns.
Patterns like right now. I call this the
IPO summer. Companies that have been
waiting on the sidelines for decades are
about to go and list on the stock
exchange. It isn't just SpaceX, loads of
others. And the people who know how to
position from this, the people who
understand the fiveear cycle is this
historically kicks off, they're going to
build wealth machines. And five years
from now, you're going to be in one of
two groups. Group numero uno, the people
who watched it happen. Again, just like
2020 or like 2010 or like 1998, just
like they watched every major
opportunity pass them by. And then you
have group number two, the people who
showed up, who learned Wall Street's
playbook, who built something that
actually matters for themselves, for
their children, for their retirement,
for their legacy. So, you got to pick a
group. Put group number one or group
number two in the chat. Which group do
you want to be? And just to get really
real with you, I'm I'm heading to New
York next week, so I'm trying to learn
American.
Father's Day is this weekend. And you
might be thinking, random, why are you
talking about Father's Day? This is not
about you having another beer, sleeping
on the sofa, or doing a barbecue or
whatever you do on Father's Day.
Everyone needs to ask themselves just
one question here. What legacy am I
building? If you retired today, right
now, your earnings would stop right now.
Would you be taken care of? Would your
family be taken care of? If something
happened to you tomorrow, God forbid,
did you build something that lasts? Did
you leave something that you'd be proud
of? And right now, standing at the
beginning of this 5-year window where
the people who learn how to build wealth
are really going to separate themselves
from everybody else. And I'm not saying
buy all the overhyped IPOs. I'm not
saying that at all. What I'm saying is
learn the skills that separate the pros
from the amateurs. And I believe this is
so important. I'm going to do something
on Father's Day for you. I'm going to
hold a live workshop on Father's Day at
7 PM New York time. Live from New York,
actually. And I call it how to turn the
IPO summer into a fiveyear wealth
machine. Never taught this material
before. And honestly, I might never do
this again because the next opportunity
like this will be maybe in 10 years. So
if you want to be there with me, be
there live. Don't ask me for a replay.
We don't do those. It's going to be two
hours long. And there's a link down
below. It's completely free. There
10,000 tickets to this
wealthmachine.org.
And over half of those tickets are
already gone as I'm recording this. So,
by the time you watch this, there might
not be that many left. Wealthmachine.org
is the link in the description. It's
also in the comments down below.
Free, no questions asked, no credit card
needed, nothing. So, if you want to be
part of that event, if you're going to
show up for yourself, write wealth
machine in the comments. Let me know
that you're going to be there and you're
going to show up for yourself. But the
promise of this video to get back to it
is to help you understand the forces
first, right? So, Sunday is the big
vision. It's the detail. We're going to
go into much much more detail than a
20-minut like this video like this can.
But let's get into these three stocks.
So, we've talked about
the boat, right? One simple rule you
need to learn right now, which I call
follow the money. And the framework is
called or I call it the rubber band
effect. And it works because human
nature doesn't really change very much.
Imagine a rubber band, right? When you
stretch a rubber band really, really,
really far in one direction, what
happens? What happens? it gets really
really tight, right? And the further you
stretch it, the more pressure builds up
and then eventually that pressure
becomes too much and suddenly it snaps
back in the other direction. It snaps
even harder than when it was stretched.
Stock markets work the same way. Same
like the boat that has. So the more
extreme the crowding, the more pressure
builds up. So what we seeing right now
in software, particularly three stocks
I'm going to give you, is this rubber
band stretched out as far as I've seen
it in years. And if I see it, I know
lots of other people are seeing it
because we all got taught the same
rules. I used to be a banker and there's
a process to identify when the snap's
about to happen. And if you know the
steps, you could be ready when it does.
So, let me give you the big picture
here. Three steps. We're going to go
much much deeper on this on Sunday. So,
make sure you join me there. Links down
below. The first step is figuring out
exactly how crowded one side of the boat
is. Professional investors track
something called positioning. And this
is basically a measure of how many
people are betting up versus how many
people are betting on it going down
because that's what Wall Street does.
They don't care which way it goes. They
make money either way. Now, normally
positioning is fairly balanced, right?
It's a little bit up, a little bit down.
But right now, software is incredibly
lopsided. Way more money is betting on
software going down than up. So, if a
tiny piece of information comes out that
makes people think software isn't going
to disappear, I mean, have you canceled
your Microsoft subscriptions? Probably
not, right? Because the truth is, yes,
AI makes it easier to build software,
but selling software, distributing
software, getting companies with 100
thousand employees to buy 100,000
licenses from you, that is still really,
really hard. And AI doesn't help you
with that. The second spot step, even
the second step is look for the crack.
And it's the first sign that the boat is
about to tip over. And it's when the
price of a stock breaks through a level
where a lot of people thought it would
stay below it. And if I may and if I may
um torture you with a stock chart for a
moment, there is an ETF called IGV. It's
a software ETF index fund and it's been
having a pretty hard time, right? It's
come down a lot in beginning of 2026.
Really, really nasty. The lows down here
about 74 and then it's recovering. And
you see that little yellow line there,
the moving average line. seems to be
recovering quite nicely. And what we
just did is that we collapsed once
again, right? The whole inflation fear.
And now we appear to be bouncing off
that. And you might be watching this a
few days after I record this. It doesn't
really matter. The concept, the
principle is always there, which is why
I always say learn how to fish. Don't
ask for fish. Right? So, we're at a
point where I'm very interested in
potentially buying this. Again, I'm not
telling you to buy it. I'm just giving
you some education here. It's not
financial advice. But that's your second
step. And then your third step is the
force bind. And this is kind of the
scariest part. It's when the boat is
about to really tip over. A couple of
people are falling overboard. So you're
like, "Oh my god, what do we do?" Well,
everybody runs to the opposite side of
the boat, right? Because if they don't,
they're going to fall overboard, too,
and they'll drown. And that's exactly
what Wall Street has to do. Because the
people who bet on software going down
because it has a lot making a lot of
money in that direction. Well, what
happens when it goes back up? What
happens when it goes back up and their
profits get erased and suddenly, oh my
god, now they're losing money because
they only make money on the way down.
The only way to close a bet that a stock
will go down is to buy the stock. And
you might have heard about shorting,
which is what this is. If you're
shorting a stock, you're selling it. You
don't own it. You just sold it. So,
you're minus a stock in your portfolio.
The only way to go back from minus to
zero is to buy a stock. And it creates a
rush of buying. And these guys are not
buying because the stock or industry is
getting better. It's just mechanical
buying. It's forced buying. It's risk
management. It's the rubber band
snapping back. It's everyone running
from one side of the boat to the other.
Let me give an example of one of these,
a recent one, and then we look at the
actual three stocks here. Avis. Avis had
a beautiful rally up. I bought it here.
It made a lot of money. It's beautiful.
Took some profits somewhere. I can't
remember where. I think it was about 80%
up. And then what happened? Well, it
went all the way down again, right?
Really, really down. So, a lot of people
made a lot of money on the way down. And
then what happened? As the stock went
back up, a short squeeze happened. So,
the stock went up. Not because car
rental is suddenly a sexier business.
No, it happened purely because all the
people who had shorted this to make
money on the way going down, they were
now losing their shirt and this thing
went up like 400%.
And then it collapsed again and I know
some of my mentors made a lot of money
on it going down again. This is what
trading is called. And there's a little
thing at the bottom of the screen here
which shows you how much trading was
happening there and how the institutions
were buying in green every single day to
get out of their positions. And the
smart investors in my humble opinion are
ready for this kind of pattern on
software. Not promising you any
financial outcomes obviously but I'm
seeing a similar pattern here. So how do
we play this? Well the simplest way to
play this is to buy the the index fund
for example IGV. And again, I'm not
telling you to buy it. I'm just saying
seeing a similar pattern here. We've
come up, we go gone gone down again.
We're bouncing off. We're finding some
support down here at the 50-day moving
average line, which is a good thing. And
it's a it's an ETF that basically holds
110 leading software companies.
Everybody like you know, Oracle, Palo
Alto, Microsoft, Palangja, Crowd Strike,
all that stuff. So one click you get
exposure to the entire sector. And maybe
you're still thinking, but I think
software is going to get killed by AI.
All right. So, you think everyone's
going to cancel their Microsoft Office
subscriptions, right? Because you think
you think um if somebody made you think
if somebody made a free word processor,
they would use that instead. Well,
someone's made that already. It's called
Google Docs. I've got one open here on
the screen. It's brilliant. I use it all
the time. Have I still got Microsoft
Office? Yes, I do. Why? No idea. The
truth is people especially
enterprises don't cancel software
subscriptions very lightly because their
whole system is kind of interwoven with
this. So the reality is the disruption
already came. Loads of the stuff is
already available for free but
people are still paying for the paid
because they've always done it and it's
embedded in their systems. Now I also
promised to walk you through three
stocks right? So stock number one is
CVLT.
It's called Kumalt Systems. The second
stock is Mara Holdings. And I'm going to
give you a third one as well with a
straightforward explanation of why I
like these ones particularly. So, Com is
essentially a cyber resilience and data
protection company. So, everyone's
panicking about AI killing software.
These are guys are building the tools
that protect the data that AI runs on.
Think about it. Every company on the
planet needs to back up and protect
their data. And cyber attacks are
increasing because AI can do the cyber
attacks. So we need more of what
Convolult does. They did over a billion
dollars in revenue, growing 19% a year.
They've got enterprise clients
everywhere. They're partnering with
companies like Crowd Strike. They just
acquired another AI data security
company. And no one's going to cut cyber
security spending because you get
hacked. You're finished. Now, if you
pull up the chart here, this stock's
been hammered pretty harshly. It's down
about 60 odd percent and it's now in a
recovery phase. And what do we look for?
Well, we look for the the the catalyst
which was here. You see some bigly
institutional buying happening there
suddenly as we're kind of coming out of
this zigzaggy heartbeat pattern there.
And now we're grinding grinding our way
up. Each low is higher than the previous
low, which is definitely a good thing
from a chartist point of view. And we're
seeing that yellow moving average line
indicating some positive momentum. And
you might think these charts are a lot
of gobbledegook. I used to think that
too. Well, let me teach them to you
properly on Sunday. There's a reason by
the way, right? Why be exactly where we
are right now as I'm recording this and
by the time you're watching this, it
chart looks somewhat different. Again,
that really doesn't matter. So, let me
walk you through stock number two,
Expensify. And I know it's a teeny tiny
company. It's trading at a dollar in a
bit. And normally I'd be very cautious
about something this small, especially
something that
um peaked at $50. So this thing is down
about 97%.
Cheap, right? People said cheap all the
way down. Cheap is not the reason to
look at something like this ever. What
is Expensify? Expense management
platform. Companies use it to track
expenses, corporate credit cards, pay
their bills, that sort of thing. and
they've got millions of users and
absolutely hammered, but they're still
generating cash. They just did a 25
million share buyback, which tells you
management thinks the stocks, I was
going to say cheap. I'm not allowed to
use that word, am I? Um, they've
integrated AI to their platform. They
launched something that lets AI
assistants like Chat GPT plug directly
into the expense data. So, you got a
company that's been beaten down to
basically nothing. Management is buying
back shares and they're actually
embracing AI are being killed by it.
When you look at the charts, it appears
to be bottoming out because every single
low that we seeing here, they're getting
higher and higher and higher, which is
exactly the kind of pattern you want to
see. We saw some pretty bigly
institutional buying happening there,
but it's tiny. It's risky. So, I'm not
telling you to rather than buy it, but
in a que squeeze scenario, the smallest
names with the highest short interest
often move the fastest. Now clearly
speculative play clearly flagged as
risque as they say in the south of
France. Now the third stock is called
Mara and let me just zoom out on the
chart for you to give you a little bit
of a feel for what pain looks like for
the buy and hold crowd. Imagine you
bought this at the top and you're down
83%. We've been holding keeping that
secret for uh four years now from your
wife. Uh, this used to be Marathon
Digital, by the way, and it's a real
squeeze candidate because over a quarter
of this company's tradable shares are
being shorted right now. Now, this used
to be a Bitcoin mining company, and I
know what you're thinking, Looney Stock,
but they're pivoting into something
bigger. They're acquiring energy
infrastructure. They're buying a company
called Longriidge Energy, and they're
building out AI data center capacity. It
seems these guys hop onto whatever the
latest thing is. So again, a lot of buy
and hold play here, but they're becoming
an energy and AI infrastructure play. So
why is there squeeze potential? You got
a stock that's down 80 something%.
You've got a quarter of the sales,
you've got a quarter of the shares sold
short and if Bitcoin rallies or if the
AI infrastructure starts getting
attention, you get exactly the kind of
force buying we're talking about with
Avis. So what am I seeing on this chart
that I'm liking? Well, I see the lows.
Low there, low there, low here. sort of
bottoming out, inverse head and
shoulder, you might call it, which
actually is probably the only chart
pattern that I actually care about. And
then we got lows that are go higher and
higher and higher. We actually grinding
our way quite up, up quite nicely. Now,
this won't go up in a straight line. I
guarantee you that. There too many
losers in this already if you're going
to want to sell every time we get a
little bit higher. But it's moving and
it's showing signs of this could be an
interesting one, which is why I'm
mentioning it. I'm not telling you to
buy it. I want to be very, very clear
with that. Now, of course, you have to
know when to sell and how to set it up.
And I think you have a responsibility
and you have to think responsibly about
position sizing and everything else and
think about how it fits into your
portfolio and all of that. But the quick
ball case for each of these is Comvold
cyber security resilience. It's a
non-negotiable spending a billion in
revenue punished pretty harshly.
Expensify teenytiny beaten down
management buying back shares embracing
AI and then Ma Marat the biggest short
squeeze candidate we have here pivoting
into AI energy infrastructure. Now are
there more layers to this particular
French onion? Yes, of course they are. I
can't teach you everything there is
about investing in sort of a 20inut
video which is precisely why I'm running
a live workshop. You can ask me
questions. I'm doing that for you guys
on Fless Day. Women of course are also
welcome. we are um not that sexist yet.
Um and honestly, I'd encourage you to
bring your bring your better half, bring
your teenage children if you have them,
and learn together because the skill of
managing money is I think the most
powerful skill we're going to acquire.
And I'm going to walk you through a much
more detailed run through of setups, not
just for software, but for everything.
And I truly believe the old playbook,
this buy and hold playbook, it doesn't
work anymore. not for stocks. It doesn't
even work for sector index funds. It
probably works for the S&P 500. I think
that's a very very very fair thing to
say and I would never discourage anybody
from from buying the S&P 500. Um it'll
give you average returns in the long run
if you've got a long run. But many of
you are buying stocks. Many of you are
buying AI or space or quantum or
whatever index funds. So you're not a
buy and hold person. You tell yourself
that, but you're not really. you're
actually making selections and in that
world buy and hold I think is very very
dangerous because the speed at which
money moves around is now greater than
ever. It's how Wall Street makes money.
Technology disruptions are faster and
faster and faster. And you know we used
to have the leading phone company in the
world. What was it called? Nokia. Right.
And then there was Blackberry for
business. I used to love my Blackberry.
Um that's when I was a banker. You can
tell how many years ago that was. And
then they pretty much went out of
business. Yeah, they're still around,
but you know, the product is dead. Cisco
was the most exciting software company
around. And you can think of thousand
such examples. The money went into them
and the money left and it's found
somewhere better to make more money. So
come and join me on Sunday. It'll be
free. It'll be live. It'll be two hours.
I'll teach you the system that I use
every single week. Whether you're an
investor, whether you're a trader,
whether you're buying stocks or index
funds, or if you're just interested in
how to responsibly grow your
investments, protect your investments,
come and join us, wealthmachine.org is
the link is the link down below in the
description and in the comments. And if
you got some value from this and if you
think someone might get value from the
live workshop, send them the link, share
it with the people, and I wish you all
the best. If you missed Palanteer, if
you missed SpaceX, if you missed the
quantum rally, then what I'm about to
show you might be the single biggest
investment theme of the next decade.
Last year, I showed you quantum
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video highlights a potential market opportunity involving a rotation away from certain tech stocks, which have lagged while the broader NASDAQ has performed well. The speaker argues against traditional 'buy and hold' strategies, advocating for a more active approach centered on tracking institutional money flow and identifying technical 'rubber band' effects in sectors like software. He suggests that while some believe AI will kill software companies, the reality of market positioning creates a 'short squeeze' potential. The speaker discusses three specific stocks—Commvault Systems, Expensify, and Mara Holdings—and invites viewers to a live workshop for a deeper understanding of his investment framework.
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