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Investing in UFOs? The ETF betting on secret government tech

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Investing in UFOs? The ETF betting on secret government tech

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0:00

Well, hello and welcome to TraderTalk.

0:01

[music]

0:01

I'm Kenny Polcari, your host, and today

0:04

we're going to have a conversation with

0:05

Matt Tuttle, who's the CEO and CIO of

0:08

Tuttle Capital Management, and Michael

0:10

Ryan King, who is the equity market

0:12

strategist at the New York Stock

0:14

Exchange. And Michael and I could have a

0:16

conversation just about that after

0:18

having spent 40 years at 11 Wall Street

0:22

myself.

0:22

>> Yeah, a lot more a lot more than I have.

0:24

>> Oh my god. We could sit here and talk

0:26

all day long about about what it was,

0:28

but

0:29

>> If you'd like me to leave my

0:30

>> No, no, no, not at all. I want you to

0:31

stay. I want you to stay, but but I just

0:33

so everyone understands, right? Cuz

0:35

the New York Stock Exchange has clearly

0:37

a very dear place in my heart, right? I

0:39

met my wife there, right? Uh anyway,

0:42

whatever. Uh so, let's talk about let's

0:44

just get right to it. Let's talk about

0:46

um where we are, right? The first half

0:48

of the year, certainly as everybody

0:50

understands, was very dynamic. I think

0:52

the markets they have done very well.

0:54

Earnings season was spectacular. I don't

0:56

know if that's changed your outlook for

0:58

the rest of the year, what you think

0:59

earnings season's going to be, but let's

1:01

go. Kick it off.

1:01

>> Yeah, I mean, look, I mean, you know,

1:03

first quarter earnings were fantastic by

1:06

any stretch of the imagination, right?

1:07

You got to 2x you know, kind of what the

1:10

street was looking for, which was

1:11

already kind of call it, you know, kind

1:12

of low teens growth, right? Um you know,

1:14

a lot of that came from the tech sector,

1:16

as we all know, right? But it was pretty

1:18

broad in terms of, you know, where we

1:20

saw that strength. Um you know, I would

1:23

argue that it could have even been

1:24

better, right? So, we've kind of talked

1:26

about things within a framework of um

1:28

you know, kind of before Iran, after

1:30

Iran, similar to what we did last year

1:31

with, you know, before tariffs and after

1:33

tariffs, right? And I would suggest

1:35

there's been like a guidance gap in in

1:37

many of the companies that have

1:38

reported, where you've seen kind of a

1:40

lot of companies that have beaten

1:41

earnings, but that hasn't translated

1:43

into an increase in guidance. And uh you

1:45

know, that's particularly outside of the

1:47

tech sector. And you know, had we not

1:49

kind of had the the flare-up that we

1:51

did, you know, you would have probably

1:52

seen an even stronger Q1 earnings

1:55

season. But that what that does is kind

1:56

of set us up, you know kind of for you

1:58

know kind of for for some catch up in

2:00

the back half of the year.

2:00

>> A stronger earning season was it was

2:03

well beyond what the expectation was

2:05

coming into the year.

2:06

>> Yeah and but what I'm more focused on is

2:09

really what the hyperscalers are saying

2:11

about AI CapEx and anything that comes

2:14

out of Jensen's mouth I want to hear.

2:16

>> Well and and and what they're saying is

2:19

the demand is insatiable. It's crazy how

2:21

much demand there is out there.

2:22

>> It is crazy and that's what's driving

2:25

this market. Forgetting about oil at 90,

2:28

forgetting about rates going up,

2:30

forgetting about inflation, forgetting

2:32

about what Walmart is saying about the

2:34

consumer. It's all AI CapEx driving this

2:38

market and you know we we think you've

2:41

got to be in that trade.

2:42

>> No well certainly you have to be in the

2:44

trade but I think what's really

2:45

interesting is over the last couple of

2:47

weeks when we saw that real anxiety

2:48

build and the the two year, the 10 year,

2:51

and the 30 year suddenly all you know

2:53

ran up through 4%, 4 and 1/2, and 5% yet

2:56

the market didn't really back off. And

2:58

for me those are the lines in the sand

3:00

that create this kind of

3:02

level where you have to start to think

3:04

about well 4 and 1/2% in the 10 year, 5%

3:06

in the 30 year, you have to be a little

3:08

bit more cautious. Yet the market kept

3:10

marching forward. And I think a lot of

3:11

it driven by certainly the comments by

3:14

any of the hyperscalers, by Nvidia, by

3:16

all of them, right?

3:17

>> Well and and I think what you've got is

3:19

traders are looking at higher oil

3:21

prices, higher rates as temporary. And

3:24

they're looking at what's going on with

3:25

AI is something that's going to last 2,

3:28

3, 5, 10, 15 years. So they're ignoring

3:32

we'll see whether that's at their peril

3:34

or not but they're ignoring what's going

3:36

on with oil and rates and piling in to

3:39

all the AI stuff.

3:40

>> where are you on that?

3:42

>> So I think you've got to be in those

3:44

bottleneck trades.

3:45

>> Yeah.

3:46

>> Memory, photonics, and we look at space

3:48

as a bottleneck trade as well. You've

3:50

got to be in that. space like space

3:53

space. Space space space here for pure

3:55

play. So we we launched a space ETF pure

3:58

play 11 names two and a half months ago

4:01

it's doubled. What are the

4:02

>> names in that ETF?

4:03

>> It's the names you'd expect Redwire ASTS

4:06

Rocket Lab Lunar Qway. It's 11 names

4:09

they're only space names and again it's

4:12

it's doubled in two and a half months

4:14

it's in in insane but it's I mean people

4:17

are telling you space is not even in the

4:19

first inning

4:20

>> Right. Of all this stuff we're doing up

4:22

there.

4:23

>> Not not even close.

4:24

>> you going to do when SpaceX goes public?

4:26

>> We're going to add that to our ETF.

4:28

We're I yeah we we definitely have to.

4:30

We're going to add that to our space ETF

4:32

and I also have a UFO disclosure ETF

4:34

we're adding it to that too cuz Elon

4:36

knows more than he lets on.

4:37

>> Wait so tell us a little bit about the

4:38

UFO UFO ETF.

4:40

>> So the ticker symbol is UFOD for UFO

4:43

disclosure. The idea is based on the

4:47

secret gap that what we see

4:50

the government's always 20 30 years

4:52

ahead. We've seen that with the

4:53

internet. We've seen that with GPS.

4:55

We've seen that with self-driving. We

4:57

saw that in Venezuela with the

4:59

discombobulator which was probably

5:01

directed energy weapon and that quantum

5:03

sensing thing they did in Iran. So what

5:06

our thought is is we are sitting on free

5:09

energy technology and anti-grav

5:11

technology that if it gets disclosed we

5:15

think AI is a game changer imagine being

5:19

able to take energy from the

5:20

environment. That changes everything. So

5:23

we're invested in the defense companies

5:25

obviously but we're also looking at this

5:29

convergence trade where you've used to

5:31

be in defense it was tanks planes and

5:35

ships. Now it's drones it's missile

5:38

defense anti-drone robots. You've got

5:41

this convergence between defense and all

5:44

of the AI sectors. That's what this

5:47

trade is about. Aliens don't have to be

5:50

real. It just makes it more fun if they

5:52

are.

5:52

>> [laughter]

5:54

>> I love that. I think that's perfect. So,

5:57

let's talk about Mike, let's go back to

5:58

you a minute and talk about the New York

6:00

Stock Exchange and the kind of the

6:01

sentiment exchange in terms of what the

6:03

second half of the year is going to look

6:04

like. Does the exchange have Do you have

6:06

a view?

6:06

>> Yeah, look. I mean, I think, you know,

6:08

we we know we're in uh mid-term election

6:10

year, right? Which do tend to be kind of

6:12

a tough year for equity markets, right?

6:14

>> Um typically, then, you know, some of

6:16

that anxiety starts to show up during

6:18

the second quarter into the third

6:19

quarter and then kind of yeah, and then

6:21

Q4 and beyond, you know, tends to be

6:23

kind of off to the races, right? Um I

6:25

think that, you know, kind of with the

6:27

move that we've had, like, you know, we

6:28

could get into, you know, a little bit

6:30

of rockiness heading into the summer.

6:32

Um you know, kind of as we as we start

6:34

to see some of the supply come to the

6:36

market. Uh you know, kind of as you were

6:38

just kind of you know, mentioning with

6:39

with IP some of the big IPOs that are

6:41

coming. Um you know, and just some of

6:42

the run that we've had and we have to

6:44

kind of digest some of that, right?

6:45

>> Yeah, well, 100%. But wait, speaking of

6:47

the IPOs, let's talk about that for a

6:48

minute, right? Because it is a hot

6:49

market. It's a hot IPO market. So, if

6:52

any name, OpenAI, Anthropic, cuz we

6:54

already know SpaceX is coming, but the

6:56

other ones, OpenAI, Anthropic, if

6:57

they're going to launch, if they're

6:59

going to go, now's the time to go.

7:02

>> For sure.

7:02

>> Right?

7:03

>> Yeah, and and you would, you know, we've

7:04

seen kind of those IPO markets be pretty

7:06

quiet for, you know, kind of the last

7:08

couple of years, right? I mean, yeah,

7:10

but these are some really big big

7:11

numbers, right? So, like, if you kind of

7:13

look at what um SpaceX and OpenAI are

7:16

kind of talking about in in terms of

7:17

what we've heard in the press in terms

7:19

of kind of, you know, the the size of

7:21

the raise, we're talking about a hundred

7:22

fifty billion dollars, which is about

7:24

twenty-five percent of what we saw in

7:25

twenty-twenty-one, right? The last time

7:27

we saw kind of this really big, you

7:29

know, kind of capital markets cycle,

7:31

right? So, there's going to be some

7:32

supply that the markets need to digest.

7:34

>> me ask you guys a question because I'm

7:36

curious what you think.

7:38

The money that's going to go into these

7:40

IPOs,

7:42

do you think it's coming out of other

7:43

parts of the market? Do you think it's

7:44

money sitting on the side ready to go?

7:46

>> I I think that you that you're going to

7:49

see some of that come out of the tech

7:51

sector, right? So,

7:52

>> so?

7:52

>> I think my my my sense is my guess would

7:55

be that we've seen this very big move in

7:58

the tech sector, right? For

7:59

understandable reasons.

8:01

But, we've had you know we've had this

8:03

everybody's crowded into that trade. I

8:04

think you can see some of those stocks

8:06

kind of start to level off, some of the

8:08

money come out of those areas of the

8:10

market.

8:10

>> Right. And like the bear case, not

8:12

really the bear case, but the argument

8:15

on the earning side is that there's been

8:17

a lot of pull forward of demand. And

8:18

even just last night Zscaler, right, in

8:21

their earnings they highlighted that

8:23

they had pulled forward a lot of their

8:25

kind of memory and and data data center

8:27

component component demand

8:30

you know because they were trying to get

8:31

ahead of price increases, right? They

8:33

raised their CapEx guidance you know

8:35

just to kind of you know kind of account

8:37

for the increase in memory cost, right?

8:39

>> Right. So, they're not the only ones who

8:41

have kind of done that. So, you know you

8:42

are kind of you know setting a pretty

8:44

high bar on a go forward basis for a lot

8:46

of these.

8:46

>> I think some of that money's got to come

8:48

out of MU after the move it's had,

8:50

right? People I mean how can you not?

8:52

Even though they got even though the the

8:53

analyst that's going to 1600, I don't

8:55

know what time frame by the way was that

8:56

supposed to happen in a year? I'm not

8:58

sure what the time frame was.

8:59

>> During my lifetime.

9:00

>> During your lifetime, right

9:01

>> [laughter]

9:01

>> right. That's like Andrew Ross Sorkin

9:03

the other day got an interview and said,

9:05

"Oh, we're getting a market crash."

9:07

Really when? I I don't know, but it's

9:08

coming. Dude, really? That's like the

9:10

sun's coming out tomorrow.

9:11

>> he is right though.

9:12

>> Well, he

9:13

he is, right he is. But, I but I do

9:15

think that

9:17

I have to say I do think some of that

9:19

money's got to come out of names that

9:22

have gone parabolic.

9:23

>> Absolutely.

9:24

>> That just needed to diversify, right?

9:25

And so, I think you're going to see a

9:26

pullback. While the story for MU might

9:29

be as strong as it is,

9:31

I think you're going to I think you are

9:32

going to see money come out of names

9:34

like that that have gone really

9:36

to the upside.

9:37

>> Yeah.

9:37

>> Uh to get repositioned into but I don't

9:40

think it's going to come out of the

9:40

broad market. I think it's going to come

9:41

out of very specific names.

9:44

>> Well, I mean

9:45

like a name I'm focused on Anduril.

9:47

Would you rather own Anduril or would

9:49

you rather own a Kratos, an AVAV or a

9:51

Lockheed Martin? I'd rather I'd rather

9:53

own Anduril. So I think you'll see some

9:55

of that too from a sector standpoint.

9:59

Once a name like that comes out, you

10:01

know, that to me becomes the leading

10:03

stock in that area.

10:05

>> Right. And so let let's talk about

10:07

Tuttle for a minute because you you

10:09

manage how many ETFs?

10:10

>> Around 70. We launch new ETFs every

10:13

single day. I lose track.

10:15

>> Oh, do you really?

10:16

>> Yeah.

10:17

>> So you cover everything. You cover

10:18

sectors, you cover regions of

10:20

around the world?

10:22

>> We we do. We we have some international.

10:24

We do a lot of levered and inverse.

10:27

We're now working on a lot of different

10:28

option income stuff. We don't like

10:30

covered calls. We do puts. We do a lot

10:33

of thematic. Um and I also do ETFs for

10:37

things that make me mad like Jim Cramer

10:39

and Cathie [laughter] Wood. So we we we

10:42

we've inverse those.

10:43

>> the inverse? Oh, of course.

10:44

>> We do the inverse.

10:45

>> Right, right. Cuz you're mad at them so

10:46

you what you it's the contrary.

10:47

>> I'm not mad at them. I'm mad at how

10:50

they're presented to the public who then

10:53

thinks that they are people to follow

10:56

and they lose money.

10:57

>> 100%. Let me ask another question

11:00

about cuz you made an interesting

11:01

comment about the leveraged ETFs. So you

11:03

leverage two and three times?

11:05

>> So we're not allowed to do three. We're

11:07

fighting the SEC on that. They don't

11:09

allow us to do three.

11:10

>> Direxion does three.

11:11

>> They were grandfathered in.

11:13

>> Ah.

11:14

>> Somehow that's fair. I don't understand

11:16

how.

11:17

But yeah, so we only we do two X on

11:19

single stocks.

11:20

>> On single stocks?

11:21

>> Right. And those those are for active

11:23

traders. Interestingly a third of our

11:25

assets in those come from Korea. South

11:27

Korea.

11:28

>> Really?

11:29

>> Yes.

11:29

>> That's interesting.

11:30

>> It is. I think they really do like to

11:34

trade a lot of these names.

11:36

>> Yeah.

11:37

And do you And

11:39

do you What do you list?

11:41

>> Um we are mostly on the CBO, but maybe

11:45

he will talk me into moving back to the

11:47

NYSE.

11:49

>> What? I'm just I'm just throwing it out

11:51

there. I'm just throwing [laughter] it

11:52

out there. Let's talk about some of the

11:54

economic data and the Fed,

11:56

uh and now we have a new Fed chairman,

11:58

right? Kevin Warsh is now officially the

12:00

chairman, but let's talk about, you

12:02

know, the difficulty he may or may not

12:04

have right off the bat, because there

12:06

are certainly three or four people that

12:07

are pushing back. Um so, what do you

12:10

think?

12:10

>> Yeah, look. I mean, I think he's in a

12:11

difficult spot in terms of where he

12:13

suggested he kind of ultimately wants to

12:15

go. We're not in an environment where

12:17

you can really talk about rate cuts at

12:19

this point.

12:19

>> Now, clearly

12:20

>> Yeah, I mean, now, you know, there's

12:22

clearly a big catalyst that could

12:24

potentially, you know, kind of take some

12:25

of the edge off there, right? If we

12:27

actually kind of do get a deal in, you

12:29

know, in Iran and get the strait open

12:30

and we start to see oil prices, you

12:33

know, kind of start to move lower again.

12:34

You know, but he's in a in a tough spot.

12:37

Um you know, he's talked about, you

12:38

know, kind of changing, you know, the

12:39

communication style of the Federal

12:41

Reserve, and, you know, kind of and and

12:43

kind of the reaction function with the

12:45

the balance sheet. Those are things that

12:47

are going to take some time to play out.

12:49

I don't think you're going to

12:49

necessarily see anything kind of

12:51

game-changing right out of the gate.

12:53

>> to pull them back. He doesn't want them

12:54

speaking to the public.

12:56

>> Right. Correct.

12:56

>> uh the members, the way they do now,

12:58

right? They all go out after the

12:59

meeting. They, you know, they have to

13:00

keep their mouth shut for the week

13:02

before, cuz they enter that blackout

13:03

period, but then the minute the

13:05

meeting's over, they all they all fan

13:06

out, and they start talking, and then

13:08

it's clear to see where everyone stands.

13:10

I think he he doesn't want us to He

13:12

doesn't want to do that anymore.

13:12

>> Yeah, he wants to rein that in. I think

13:14

he also wants to deemphasize the dots,

13:16

right? Which is something that Chair

13:17

Powell

13:18

>> I never really understood the dots,

13:20

because it was literally It's literally

13:22

a piece of graph paper, and they take a

13:23

pencil, and they go like this. Like,

13:25

dude, we're in 2026. You're using

13:26

[laughter] a number two pencil to draw a

13:28

dot on a a dot on a graph paper?

13:31

>> Yeah, sometimes you can connect them and

13:32

then make dubs hot. That's all.

13:34

>> understood it. But one way or the other,

13:35

so what do you think about the Fed? What

13:36

do you think about

13:37

wars?

13:38

>> Yeah, so there's probably no one else I

13:40

would rather not be than him right now.

13:42

Because Trump brought him in to lower

13:44

rates.

13:44

>> That's right.

13:45

>> can't. And he may, I don't think so cuz

13:48

he'd have to be crazy to do it. He may

13:50

raise them. And we saw what happened

13:53

with Powell when Trump didn't get what

13:55

he wanted. And we know how Trump can

13:57

turn on guys.

13:58

>> I want to I

13:59

I'm betting we should go to the

14:01

Polymarket or Kalshi to see if there's a

14:03

bet on when Trump turns on him. Because

14:05

you know, to your point.

14:06

>> I I may have to do an ETF for that.

14:08

>> There you go. Perfect. Perfect.

14:09

[laughter] Yeah, I just gave you an

14:10

idea. Wait a minute. But here's the

14:12

here's the point. The point is that um

14:15

he's very much a hawk. He's very much

14:17

inflation focused, right? So, that being

14:20

the case, if oil stays here in the high

14:22

90s uh for, you know, another month,

14:25

another two months, it's going to start

14:26

to get baked even more into the PPI and

14:29

the CPI and the PCE, right? It's going

14:31

to be a problem for him. All right. And

14:33

it's going to be a problem in the

14:34

midterms.

14:35

>> It it's definitely going to be a

14:37

problem. I mean, that's why we're laser

14:38

focused on rates. The bond guys are

14:40

going to tell you what's going on,

14:42

what's not going on. Rates going up is

14:45

them telling you and inflation is going

14:47

to be here. And, you know, maybe this

14:50

war is over this time.

14:51

>> Right.

14:52

>> I mean, I'll believe it when I see it,

14:54

but the damage is already been done.

14:56

>> Right.

14:56

>> We're not getting oil back to 60

14:57

tomorrow.

14:58

>> Right. I agree with you. Kevin Hassett

15:01

did a did a an interview with Maria

15:03

Bartiromo and she asked him that

15:05

question. He goes, "OH, ONCE this is

15:07

done, oil's going to come plummeting." I

15:09

go, "Uh not so fast."

15:10

>> Yeah.

15:11

No, I I definitely don't think so. I

15:13

mean, we've been telling people buy the

15:15

oil stocks every time it goes down 4 or

15:17

5%. Right. And so far that's worked out

15:19

pretty well.

15:19

>> That's That's That's right. But wait,

15:21

let me ask a question about where you

15:22

think rates are going.

15:24

>> So, I think rates short-term Again, I

15:28

don't think the Fed's going to do

15:29

anything, but I am worried about the

15:32

10-year, the 30-year

15:34

going up, especially if oil stays around

15:37

here, and that could be talking about

15:40

second half of the year, that could

15:42

create a problem.

15:43

>> think oil stays Even if they if they if

15:45

if they come up with an announcement

15:46

today saying we can't We have a deal,

15:48

we're going to take all the

15:50

We're going to take all the um

15:51

the powder and take it out of there,

15:53

um and we have a deal. This The trade is

15:55

open, blah blah blah. Do you think Do

15:57

you think Do you think

16:00

um

16:01

oil doesn't go back to 62 right away?

16:03

>> Definitely not right away.

16:04

>> Probably in the high 70s.

16:06

>> Or in the 80s, and I think it takes a

16:09

while for it to come back down.

16:11

>> it goes to the 80s, that pressure on

16:13

inflation is going to continue to be

16:15

there. So, inflation is not going to

16:17

back off so quickly.

16:18

>> Exactly what we're thinking. We're I we

16:21

believe we are going to see higher

16:23

inflation, and we also know, I mean, the

16:25

numbers we see aren't the real numbers.

16:27

You know, talk to anyone who goes to the

16:29

grocery store, fills up their gas tank.

16:31

>> Right. Really?

16:32

>> 3%? No, it it's it's way higher than

16:36

that, and the Fed's got to be cognizant

16:38

of that.

16:39

>> Yeah, I often wonder if J. Powell or if

16:42

they actually go to the grocery store

16:44

and go shopping. I often wonder if they

16:46

actually have that experience.

16:47

>> I bet they have someone do it for them

16:49

who probably doesn't tell them.

16:51

>> 100%. But, see, it's funny because

16:54

because I go to the grocery store,

16:56

right? So, I It's it's Sometimes I look

16:59

at some of these prices and go, "What?"

17:01

Like, I you just don't

17:02

you know, and then they say, "Oh, no,

17:04

everything's fine." I don't know where

17:05

you're going, but it's not so much.

17:07

>> No, I mean, the average person I think

17:09

the middle to lower-end consumer is

17:13

really having a problem right now.

17:15

Whether that has an impact on the

17:17

market, certainly like we stay away

17:20

from, you know, any of the consumer

17:22

stocks that deal with mid and and lower

17:24

level consumers. Whether it impacts

17:27

what's going

17:27

>> Costco, no, wouldn't be a name that you

17:28

Costco and Walmart wouldn't be a name

17:30

that you would go with?

17:31

>> No, I mean, not really. And again, this

17:33

is such a target-rich environment. Like

17:36

why? And, you know, and now we have the

17:39

most investable president we've ever

17:40

had. I mean, look at what Look at what

17:42

we just did with the quantum stocks.

17:44

>> Yep.

17:45

>> just watch where Trump is putting money.

17:48

And and that's where you want to invest.

17:50

>> about the quantum stocks, right? Cuz

17:51

there's IonQ, IonQ, there's Righetti,

17:55

there's

17:56

Q-U-B-T

17:58

or something like that.

17:59

>> QBTS.

17:59

>> QBTS. So, where do you think

18:03

quantum quantum cuz quantum's going to

18:05

be the next game-changer. I I I'm I'm

18:07

thinking in this in this tech

18:08

revolution.

18:09

>> Yeah, I mean,

18:10

>> And I think it's right on the doorstep.

18:11

>> Right, it could very well be. I mean, we

18:13

don't know. Is it a year away? Is it 30

18:15

years away?

18:16

>> I think it's closer than 30.

18:17

>> I I I think it is, too. And it could be

18:19

the next revolution. What I'm focused on

18:21

is that's where the government's putting

18:23

money.

18:23

>> Right.

18:24

>> So, I want to invest along with them.

18:26

The name I like is I-I-N-F-Q.

18:29

>> I-N-F-Q.

18:30

>> I-N-F-Q. It's a little more below the

18:32

radar screen. It came public through a

18:34

SPAC merger, which is probably why

18:36

people don't really know about it. There

18:39

we go.

18:39

>> Um

18:40

>> And NYSE-listed.

18:41

>> Is what?

18:42

>> NYSE-listed.

18:43

>> Is it really?

18:43

>> Yeah, that That's the only reason I buy

18:45

it. It's NYSE-listed.

18:47

>> How do you like that? There you go. I

18:48

knew I'd get him there.

18:49

>> you got to get him a point.

18:50

>> I got you there. Wait, I-N-F-Q. I'm

18:52

going to have to look that one up cuz I

18:53

did That's a name I'm not familiar with

18:54

in that space.

18:55

>> like inflection. It may be pronounced

18:57

slightly differently.

18:58

>> What's it trade at?

18:59

>> Um

19:01

Last I looked, it was in the 16s, 17s.

19:04

It went up like 40% that day Trump and

19:07

our the government announced. We own it

19:09

in one of our ETFs. We've got an ETF,

19:11

MEME, where we own that one, and then we

19:14

own some quantum stocks in UFOD.

19:16

>> What's MEME? What's What's

19:17

>> So, MEME is really my favorite 20 ideas,

19:22

and then we do some options stuff with

19:23

puts to generate some income around it

19:25

as well.

19:26

>> Right.

19:27

Right. Okay, so now let's just talk

19:29

about the IPO market at the New York

19:31

Stock Exchange, cuz clearly that's a big

19:33

business for the New York Stock

19:34

Exchange. So, the IPO market has heated

19:37

up for you guys?

19:37

>> Uh yeah, I mean we're starting to see

19:38

it, right? The pipeline is is, you know,

19:40

very, very strong.

19:42

Um you know, and we're starting to see

19:43

some of the, you know, the bigger names,

19:45

you know, start to come out, and we'd

19:46

expect, you know, that to continue kind

19:48

of through the through the back half of

19:49

the year, especially if we continue to

19:51

be in an environment where volatility is

19:53

is more contained. Um you know, I think

19:56

like there was some expectation that

19:57

would happen maybe a little bit earlier

19:58

this year.

19:59

>> Yep.

19:59

>> Think I ran through a little bit of a

20:00

wrench in that, and kind of maybe pushed

20:02

some things out. You know, but I you

20:04

know, I you're seeing companies you kind

20:06

of get more aggressive and starting to

20:08

file and and and, you know, kind of

20:09

gearing up to to come to market.

20:11

>> Yeah, I think that's exciting, and I

20:13

think well, you know how I feel about

20:15

the New York Stock Exchange, so as far

20:16

as I'm concerned, I think they should

20:17

all go there.

20:17

>> Yeah.

20:18

>> [laughter]

20:18

>> So, so do I. Look,

20:20

obviously.

20:21

>> Yeah, that's but that's but that's

20:22

another conversation. All right, so

20:24

let's just talk about one last thing

20:25

before we run out of time here.

20:27

The second half of the year, where would

20:29

you be putting money?

20:30

>> Look, I think, you know, in this

20:31

environment, I think it's very much a

20:33

trader's market, right? So, I mean, as

20:34

an investor, you have to understand what

20:36

your time horizon is, what you're trying

20:37

to do, you know, kind of with with your

20:39

own portfolio,

20:40

>> Right.

20:40

>> but you know, kind of if you're in that

20:42

more active, you know, kind of you know,

20:43

camp, I think it is like very much a a

20:46

market where there's opportunity, and

20:47

you can use the volatility to your

20:49

advantage. Um you know, kind of things

20:51

that, you know, kind of you know, option

20:52

strategies like, you know, kind of Todd

20:53

does, um you know, kind of makes a lot

20:55

of sense. You know, so I I think, you

20:57

know, looking for kind of the

20:59

opportunity where I think, you know,

21:00

there's a secular trade in defense,

21:02

right? where, you know, if we do get a

21:03

sell-off in defense names, you know, if

21:05

we if we do have uh you know, kind of a

21:07

solution or a diplomatic resolution in

21:10

in Iran, if you see a uh you know, kind

21:11

of a sell-off in those stocks or energy

21:13

stocks, I think those are opportunities

21:15

kind of longer term. Um you know, kind

21:17

of clearly kind of the uh you know, kind

21:19

of the the tech trade has you know, kind

21:20

of some legs to it. And I'd really like

21:22

you know, kind of the idea of kind of

21:23

the reshoring reindustrialization

21:26

um you know, kind of vision technology

21:27

or kind of some of the more thematic you

21:29

know, areas that I've you know, kind of

21:31

been been focused on you know, a

21:32

alongside of you know, kind of the to

21:34

his point kind of the uh you know, kind

21:36

of investing kind of with the

21:37

administration where things are going.

21:38

>> Do you have sector

21:40

ETFs like healthcare ETF?

21:42

>> So, we don't do that. We more focused on

21:45

themes. So, we've got an ETF launching

21:49

Friday for photonics. We've an ETF

21:52

probably next week for memory. And we're

21:56

going to keep kind of peeling that

21:58

onion.

21:58

>> There's that one that just came out,

22:00

DRAM.

22:01

>> DRAM, yeah.

22:01

>> It just came out. It it's it's pure

22:03

memory play.

22:04

>> Pure memory play.

22:06

And it's got like 10 billion in it. Our

22:09

our memory ETF's going to be a little

22:11

bit different.

22:11

>> Very quickly, it

22:12

>> Right. What what they are is 66% in

22:15

three names, Samsung, Hynix, and Micron.

22:17

We're going to be more diversified than

22:19

that.

22:21

>> They think that move in uh uh

22:24

MU, part of that move last couple of

22:26

weeks ago when it came out, was because

22:28

of that DRAM ETF it had a it had to it

22:30

had a balance. So, I had to go and buy

22:32

MU, right? Um but I didn't realize it

22:34

only had three names in it.

22:36

>> Well, no, no, no, no. They have more

22:37

than three, but 66% is in the top three

22:40

names.

22:40

>> I got it. I got it.

22:41

>> And then they've got a little bit in

22:42

others. Basically, it's a play for US

22:44

investors to be able to get Hynix and

22:46

Samsung.

22:47

>> Right.

22:48

>> Hynix has an ADR coming at some point.

22:50

Samsung, I don't think has announced

22:52

>> Right.

22:52

>> a plan for an ADR. So, you know, anyone

22:55

in the US who wanted access to those

22:57

names, there you go.

22:59

>> Right. There's another one, I think

23:00

Pacer puts out, it's called traffic,

23:02

TRFK.

23:03

I think it's also kind of a memory play.

23:05

It's not pure memory, not like DRAM.

23:08

But it's But it's it There's a lot of

23:09

memory in there.

23:10

>> we like doing is pure play. So, our

23:12

space ETF, we don't have Lockheed, we

23:14

don't have Boeing, 11 space names. Our

23:17

photonics is going to be like maybe 13

23:20

photonics names, and our memory is

23:22

probably about the same, you know, 10 11

23:24

12 names. You know, you I don't need to

23:26

give you Nvidia again, you got that

23:28

somewhere else.

23:30

>> You got Nvidia everywhere you look.

23:31

Everywhere you look, you got Nvidia.

23:33

>> got Mag 7 20 places in your portfolio.

23:36

You're not getting that from us.

23:38

>> because I'm not sure, especially people

23:40

that use nothing but ETFs, I'm not sure

23:42

if they recognize how much exposure they

23:44

have but unless they're paying

23:46

attention, because you got it

23:47

everywhere.

23:48

>> They don't, but they also don't realize

23:50

just because an ETF says something in

23:52

the name that you're getting that. There

23:54

are a lot of thematic ETFs that say,

23:57

"Hey, we're quantum, we're space, we're

23:59

this." And then you look at the

24:01

holdings, they're like, "Wait, that

24:02

doesn't make any sense."

24:04

>> Yeah.

24:04

>> Like, you know, there's a a photonics

24:07

ETF, you don't get to a photonics stock

24:09

until number five. So,

24:11

it doesn't make sense, but people look

24:13

at the name, they check the box. "I've

24:15

got exposure."

24:16

>> Yeah, you really don't.

24:17

>> We really don't. And And a lot of people

24:19

don't To your point, don't don't

24:20

recognize that. They just think it says

24:22

it in the name and then they have it,

24:24

which is very very interesting. And then

24:25

there are others that have three or four

24:27

ETFs, and they're all basically the

24:29

same. They The The names are all the

24:30

same, and so they think they're

24:32

diversified, and they're not

24:33

diversified.

24:34

>> Yeah.

24:34

>> what I mean? They're They're essentially

24:35

not diversified.

24:36

>> I mean, that's what you saw during the

24:37

whole Cathie Wood era. I I'd talk to,

24:40

you know, financial advisors, "We've

24:42

diversified portfolios for our clients."

24:44

And like, "You've got ARK in nine ARK

24:46

lookalikes."

24:47

>> Right.

24:48

>> You You You You really don't.

24:49

>> Right. All right, so listen, cuz we're

24:50

going to run out of time, but before we

24:52

do that, I just want final thoughts in

24:53

terms of um

24:55

Should investors be nervous going into

24:57

the second half of the year?

24:58

>> I I don't I don't think nervous is

25:00

necessarily kind of the right you know

25:02

kind of the right term. I think we're

25:03

you know be prepared for some

25:04

volatility. Right and then have an

25:06

action plan when that when that does

25:08

>> And if you're a day trader that's right

25:10

cuz you you want more noise. But if

25:12

you're a long-term investor if you're

25:13

managing long-term money you want to

25:15

take advantage of those if if it gets

25:16

nervous and it sells off you want to be

25:18

able to take advantage.

25:19

>> Yeah, absolutely.

25:20

>> Investors should always be nervous.

25:22

Always plan for the worst, hope for the

25:25

best.

25:26

The long-term money is made by limiting

25:29

your losses and letting your gains run.

25:31

>> Right. And you know it's interesting

25:32

because when you talk about that I

25:34

always look at the Vix, right? When the

25:36

Vix it's now back in the complacency

25:37

zone. I think that's a big that's a big

25:39

yellow flashing signal, right? Because

25:42

it's so complacent yet there's all this

25:44

stuff going on. That's when it comes

25:45

back and hits you in the in the

25:47

>> Yeah.

25:47

>> In any event gentlemen listen, I

25:48

appreciate you taking the time to come

25:50

here today. I'd like to do this again

25:51

you know four or five months kind of

25:53

just see where we where we're at versus

25:55

where we thought we were going to be at.

25:56

In any event until the next time take

25:58

good care.

26:02

>> [music]

26:05

>> The following content is not intended to

26:06

be financial advice and should not be

26:08

used as a substitute for professional

26:10

financial services.

Interactive Summary

In this episode of TraderTalk, host Kenny Polcari discusses the state of the stock market for the first half of the year and future outlooks with Matt Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, and Michael Ryan King, equity market strategist at the New York Stock Exchange. Key topics include the strong performance of AI-related stocks and CapEx, the potential for market volatility in the second half of the year, the impact of rising rates and oil prices, and the strategies for thematic and pure-play ETFs versus broad market exposure.

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