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Amazon, Robinhood & Sweetgreen: Here's Where We Stand

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Amazon, Robinhood & Sweetgreen: Here's Where We Stand

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228 segments

0:00

There are a couple of stocks that have

0:01

been blowing up in the comments. People

0:03

wanting thoughts on Amazon and whether

0:06

we're still quadrupling down.

0:07

>> I did I did quadruple down. Uh I mean,

0:11

I'm in Amazon right now. It's not been a

0:13

great week. I am somewhat concerned. I

0:16

put out a post on X last week. I'm

0:18

somewhat concerned about Amazon going

0:20

down the road of what Meta and Google

0:22

did and issuing a huge debt round. Now,

0:27

I'm not actually concerned about it. I'm

0:29

just concerned about the shortterm

0:31

market reaction when that happens. My

0:34

assumption is that it's already

0:35

happening and that it's getting leaked

0:37

and that's some of the pressure that

0:39

we've seen on Amazon this past week.

0:40

>> Yeah. I don't think it's just a concern.

0:42

I almost think it's a inevitability,

0:44

right? Because Google is going to throw

0:46

another $80 billion, you know, down the

0:48

hardware path and Amazon has to they

0:50

have to go toe for toe, right,

0:51

>> Jordan? I think you're right. And I'm

0:54

just kind of like waiting on that to

0:56

happen before I go one level deeper on

1:00

Amazon.

1:00

>> I bought a little bit more Amazon in

1:02

this whole in the last couple of days

1:04

with this whole uh flush out. Nothing

1:07

crazy just, you know, an extra few

1:09

percentage points to my position.

1:11

>> For me, the best perspective on Amazon

1:13

here is to wait for that shoe to drop. I

1:15

think it's going to happen within days

1:16

to weeks. when it happens, I think the

1:18

stock is going to drop and I think it

1:21

will quickly recover from it. So, I am

1:24

holding some cash on the side or some

1:27

leverage on the side, prepared to go

1:29

meaningfully deeper in Amazon if and

1:32

when that happens. I'm not expecting a

1:34

whole lot of Amazon until we get clarity

1:37

one way or the other on how much debt I

1:40

mean, I think it's going to at this

1:42

point I think it's going to come down to

1:43

how much. It's not even whether they do

1:45

it or not. in the 60 to 100 billion

1:47

range probably, right?

1:48

>> I think if it's 60, the market's going

1:50

to be chill with it. I think if it's 100

1:52

or 120 or gosh, if it's more than that,

1:55

Amazon could get hit again, which would

1:58

be fine by me. I think they should raise

2:00

another 200, honestly. Just raise 200.

2:02

I'd be happy with that, but no one else

2:04

would be happy with that.

2:05

>> No, it it'd kill the stock temporarily.

2:08

All right, another one people have been

2:09

asking about Robin Hood.

2:10

>> Yeah, I mean crypto is a dumpster fire

2:13

still that will continue to pressure

2:14

Robin Hood. Other than that, I see Robin

2:17

Hood being exactly the same company that

2:19

I've been investing in the last two

2:21

years. I think it's still the largest

2:22

financial tution on earth in the next

2:24

two decades.

2:24

>> Man, we got Bitcoin in the low60s now.

2:27

>> I don't need to trade Robin Hood. I

2:29

don't necessarily care about Robin Hood

2:31

in the short run. I have a healthy Robin

2:33

Hood position. I'm considering putting

2:36

more money into Robin Hood. I haven't

2:38

yet. I I'd like to see it drop a bit

2:40

more here. It's getting hurt with

2:42

crypto. you know, the the worse crypto

2:44

gets hit, the harder that Robin Hood's

2:47

going to get hit. That's just the way it

2:48

is in the short run because they still

2:50

are meaningfully tied to crypto trading.

2:53

So, it's not a pretty picture for Robin

2:55

Hood in the short run if crypto

2:58

continues to show weakness, which I

3:00

wouldn't be surprised if that was the

3:02

case. So, it's not something I think

3:04

about hardly ever. People asking about

3:07

our Caesar wrap. That was a

3:09

controversial one. And I will say I I

3:12

checked to see how I did because I was

3:14

in options and shortterm options so kept

3:17

having to uh extend and and I tripled my

3:20

money on SG and I'm no longer in it.

3:23

>> And you're no longer in it. Okay. So, I

3:25

would have at least tripled my money,

3:28

but as I mentioned on our last show, I

3:31

think part of the reason, well, I

3:33

wouldn't say part like initially part of

3:35

the bump on Robin Hood was our not Robin

3:37

Hood, excuse me, of Sweet Green was us

3:39

bringing eyeballs to it. Then JP Morgan

3:42

came out and they upgraded the stock for

3:46

some of the same reasons that that that

3:48

we were interested. I did not sell any

3:50

of my Sweet Green. Okay, guys. So, I'm

3:52

still in my Sweet Green position. I just

3:54

didn't want to. I would have made about

3:56

$700,000 if I would have sold. I just

3:58

want everyone watching this show right

4:00

now to know that when Sweet Green was

4:03

up, I kind of wanted to sell cuz I was

4:05

like, "Wow, this is great, right?" Like,

4:07

I don't necessarily need to take any

4:08

additional risk here, but I told people

4:10

I wasn't going to do it. So, I could

4:12

sell at any moment now, right? I can

4:14

sell today, I can sell tomorrow, and I I

4:16

will at some point, but for now, I'm

4:19

still in sweet green. When we put on

4:21

that sweet green trade, we were pretty

4:23

clear about what we were doing. It was a

4:25

probability outcome trade. The data was

4:28

incomplete. It was early. We thought

4:31

that there was a reasonable chance that

4:34

this could become a gamechanging moment

4:36

for the company if the trend continued.

4:38

We don't yet know if the trend is going

4:41

to continue or not. I said it would take

4:43

at least weeks of more data to determine

4:46

that. So, what I did know is that if the

4:50

trend continued, this is going to be a

4:52

six or seven or 8x return for me based

4:55

on the options that I purchased. And if

4:57

it didn't work out, I would probably

5:00

lose maybe half of my money, maybe the

5:02

entirety of my investment. So, I loved

5:05

the riskreward. I loved the probability

5:08

outcome of having a 30 to 35% chance of

5:12

making six to eight times my money. That

5:15

was my trade. I still think that trade

5:19

exists today. We don't have enough

5:21

visibility into the ultimate success of

5:25

the Sweet Green Wraps. My concern for

5:28

Sweet Grain is that they are getting hit

5:32

so hard just generally by competitors

5:35

who are doing better like Cabba that the

5:39

success of the wrap product at Sweet

5:42

Green might not be enough to actually

5:46

combat the continued

5:49

uh competition getting just taking more

5:53

and more of their business. Sweet Green

5:55

is a really clean product, guys. They

5:58

don't use seed oils for the most part,

6:01

whereas their competitors, I believe

6:03

Cabba and them do. And I think maybe

6:06

people just like the taste profile of

6:09

some of the competing products as

6:12

opposed to Sweet Green, which is a

6:14

cleaner profile taste. I love the Sweet

6:17

Green wrap. I thought it was awesome. I

6:20

thought that tortilla was super fresh. I

6:23

think the entire wrap was super fresh.

6:26

>> Have you ordered it again since your on

6:28

air tasting though? Have you ordered it

6:30

again since you tried it on the show?

6:33

>> I won't have any wraps because I'm not

6:35

taking carbs. So, like it has nothing to

6:37

do with sweet green, but yes, I I have

6:39

had it again. I I went back and I had it

6:41

I had sweet green one time, not the wrap

6:44

cuz I can't do the carbs.

6:45

>> Is sweet green actually green today um

6:48

surprisingly enough. So, that's good. I

6:50

just have a real hard time wrapping my

6:52

head around software multiples for uh

6:55

chain restaurants. It's just not it's

6:57

not something that I'm going to do.

6:59

>> Okay. But again, it has nothing to do

7:01

with it has nothing to do with being a

7:04

long-term investor. Jordan,

7:06

>> what I'm saying is that you've got an

7:07

unstable base of just valuation sitting

7:09

underneath this really good idea. I

7:12

think your idea is sound like the the

7:14

the concept the idea sound but you're

7:16

sitting on this base of a company that's

7:18

just sitting on these insane valuations

7:21

like kind of like Cava or Sweet all

7:23

these guys are just they're getting

7:24

these crazy multiples.

7:26

>> I'm not even saying I disagree with that

7:28

at all. I don't trade these companies

7:30

generally. I I might completely agree

7:32

with you. What I'm saying is the

7:34

valuations for that sector or that

7:36

company are what they are before a new

7:40

product.

7:40

>> Yeah. Yeah. No, I get it. So you're not

7:42

Yeah, but I'm just saying that it maybe

7:43

paints an unstable base if there is any

7:46

volatility.

7:46

>> If I'm trading something for a few weeks

7:48

to a couple months, my assumption is

7:50

that I will not get a valuation

7:52

compression in multiples during that

7:55

time. And if they're simply able to show

7:57

an increase in revenue and profit that

7:59

the value the multiple stay relatively

8:01

the same over my short trade window,

8:04

right, and it'll all work out. Jordan, I

8:06

do not necessarily disagree with what

8:08

you're saying. Yeah, Sweet Green is not

8:10

a company that I would be investing in

8:12

long term. Much like I've I'm on the

8:14

record saying airlines are, you know, an

8:16

entire industry that I will never invest

8:17

in long term, but there are times that

8:19

you can play them. And for sweet green,

8:21

I was buying options that were expiring

8:23

like one and two days out. And then I

8:25

just kept kept doing it and I lost all

8:27

my money on the last ones. But on the

8:29

way up, I was up and it wasn't I wasn't

8:32

3x, it was 150% gain even after my

8:36

complete loss on the last round of

8:38

options. No, that that that that's

8:40

awesome.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses short-term trading perspectives on several stocks, including Amazon, Robin Hood, and Sweetgreen. The speakers analyze Amazon's potential debt issuance, the impact of the crypto market on Robin Hood, and the risk-reward rationale behind trading options on Sweetgreen, while debating the long-term viability of restaurant chain valuations.

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