February 27th of 2026, anonymous account

deposits $61,000 and places a single

bet. A prediction that the United States

will bomb Iran tomorrow. The US and Iran

trading new threats around the straight

of Ormuz. The next day, war breaks out

and that account cashed out over

$493,000

in profit. That account was one of six,

all created within 24 hours of the

attack, all betting on the exact same

date, and together they made 1.2 $.2

million. And it's part of this

disturbing pattern that's forming. The

same thing happened when Venezuela's

president got captured. So the question

becomes, how the hell did we get to this

point? Well, it's all happening on a

platform where you can literally bet on

anything. Before it was a bunch of

degenerate gamblers betting on whether

the earth is flat. But now over $1

billion has been bet on this war alone.

And people are even placing bets on

whether a nuke gets dropped. But that

isn't even the scariest part. The

scariest part is that the people placing

these bets might be the same people

deciding when the bombs fall. So, I

follow the money to see how we got here,

who's built it, and who's protecting it.

And what I found is that this problem

goes beyond national security and money.

And if something doesn't change, this

conflict might very well end up as the

last bet we will ever place.

>> Deadly American strikes, and some people

may have made money from them. It's the

most accurate thing we have as mankind

right now.

>> Gamble on using insider information to

make massive profits while bombs fall.

So to understand how we got to this

point where war and human suffering

became this trading floor, you need to

first understand that this didn't just

happen out of nowhere. Because if you

think about it, we all have this gut

feeling that damn like this is probably

wrong. So you can imagine that it took

years to train out that feeling. But you

can imagine just like most technologies,

this all started in the military. After

2001, the intelligence community was

pretty desperate. As the story goes, the

biggest attack on American soil happened

and intelligence failed to catch it. So

the Pentagon was at this place where

they started to look for unconventional

ways to predict this next threat. And

one idea came from this experiment

that's been running since 1988 where

Iowa electronic markets were letting

people bet real money on election

outcomes. It turns out year after year

those bets were a lot more accurate than

the experts or the polls. So the

Pentagon thought if markets are a lot

better than experts at predicting

elections, wouldn't this be the same for

national security? So in 2003 the

Pentagon built it. They called it the

policy analysis market. And the plan was

to let people bet on political and

military developments across eight

Middle Eastern countries, including

coup, assassinations, and tea attacks.

And I got to give a lot of props because

it probably takes a lot of balls for the

Pentagon to be like, regular people can

figure this out better. But anyways, by

the next Tuesday morning, it was up and

running. And oh yeah, by Tuesday

afternoon, it was dead. It was because,

believe it or not, back in 2003, both

sides could actually agree on things and

we actually had common sense. Once

Congress heard about this, the

Democratic Senate leader Dalshley called

it a hoax and an incentive to commit

acts of terrorism. And Republicans share

those exact same concerns as they worry

that terrorists could place bets on the

platform and then literally profit from

the violence that they caused. And just

like that, it became one of those ideas

that both sides agree should never exist

until 20 years later, of course. And

today, it's everywhere. Leading me to

today, where the two biggest platforms

are Poly Market and Koshi. And if you've

been living under the rock and you

haven't heard about them, they let you

buy and sell contracts on real world

events from election, sports, weather,

and whether Jesus will return before

2027. But what's blown up recently is

exactly what the Pentagon killed, which

is betting on geopolitical events like

this recent war. And it's exactly why

this video is sponsored. No, I'm

kidding. But let me tell you, they've

been trying. Anyways, for this video,

we're going to focus on Poly Market

because Koshi is US regulated, meaning

that it requires you use your real name

and they actually have to follow certain

regulations. But with Poly Market, they

run on crypto and it lets you bet

anonymously through a VPN. In fact, if

you're American, that's the only way you

can access it. So, I think you get the

point. But let's say you happen to know

something about a war before the public

did. You can guess which platform you

would go to. And that's exactly what

happened in January when an anonymous

trader placed a $32,000 bet on

Venezuela's president getting captured.

And just hours later, he won $400,000

from the announcement. But the thing is,

that's nothing compared to what's

happening now. Because with this war,

they're building an entire economy

around it. Bets like when will US strike

Iran were live months before it became

reality. And when I went on the platform

myself, I saw questions from will oil

hit $100 per barrel. When will the US

and Iran agree to a ceasefire? Will the

US send ground troops? Who will be the

next Supreme Leader of Iran? In fact, I

found 213 different questions all having

to do with this war. So, remember how

the Pentagon believed that markets could

predict threats better than experts?

Well, they sure as hell weren't wrong

because even before the strikes

happened, the market started pricing in

the attack weeks before any news outlet

was reporting it. So, what that tells

you is that betting markets with enough

participants can genuinely predict the

future better than any government agency

or news network, at least on paper,

because then you look at who was

actually winning. Like I told you

earlier that these six newly created

accounts that made $1.2 million, all

those were new accounts that placed bets

hours before. And of course, we can't

prove this, but there's a pretty good

chance those weren't just lucky

bastards. One of those six accounts I

talked about earlier was this account

called Magga My Man that literally made

more than half a million dollars by

predicting the Supreme Leader's death

just hours before the strikes. So, I

think there's a pretty good chance these

weren't just lucky bastards that guessed

right. These are most likely people that

are close to the source. And as I'll get

into later, Poly Market knows this

because after the strikes, they put out

a note claiming that war betting gives

people directly affected by the attacks

the answers they need in ways TV news

and X could not. So, not only are they

defending war betting when the CEO

himself has literally called insider

trading super cool, what I'm telling you

is that it's actually part of their

value. So the idea that was so

disgusting in 2003 that both parties

killed in a single day is now being

framed as a public service to regular

people while insiders are openly

encouraged and allowed to benefit. And

the only difference this idea hasn't

been killed is because enough money got

behind it that nobody can stop it. And

so what that should tell you is whether

prediction markets or your career, the

pattern is always the same. The people

who understand the game win, and I'd

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fundamentals. So, back to the video

because I follow the money to find out

who's made it. So, now we're betting on

war. And as expected, what I found is

that the people funding this platform,

the people protecting it, and the people

regulating it are all connected. But

what I didn't expect to find is where

this all leads to.

And so, let's start with who's funding

it. Peter Theel's Founders Fund led Poly

Market's $45 million funding round. And

if that name sounds familiar, it's

because he's literally invested in

everything. You probably know him most

from Palunteer, the surveillance company

that holds contracts with the US

military and intelligence agencies. Just

right before I was about to record this,

Poly Market announced that Palunteer

will now build the integrity monitoring

system to catch insider training

happening on the platform. So, the same

guy profiting from government

intelligence contracts is now also about

to fund and monitor a platform where

people with government intelligence are

allegedly making millions. Poly Market

also receives funding from the

Intercontinental Exchange, the company

that literally owns the New York Stock

Exchange. And just recently, they put $2

billion in. So point is, they have the

biggest names in surveillance in Wall

Street all in. But the thing is, even

with all that money, it can only go so

far because when the Pentagon project

can even be shut down, you also need

someone to make sure that doesn't

happen. Well, good thing Donald Trump

Jr. is not only an adviser to both Poly

Market and Khi, but his venture capital

firm has also invested millions in a

poly market, but the family web goes

deeper. I didn't even know this, but

President Trump's own media company has

also launched his own prediction

platform called Truth Predict with

Crypto.com. So, the point is, the Trump

family has a vested financial interest

for the platform to succeed, but also to

politically protect these prediction

markets. It's exactly why when the DOJ

under Biden raided Poly Market CEO's

home and seizes devices for letting

Americans bet on the platform through

VPNs in 2022, charges were immediately

dropped once Trump came into office. But

no amount of protection is guaranteed

until you put the right guy in charge of

writing the rules. Trump's pick to lead

the CFTC, which is like the agency

that's supposed to regulate these sorts

of markets, is a guy named Michael

Seelig. And before he got this job, he

was this lawyer who represented crypto

clients. And the very first thing he did

when he got the position was recruit

executives from Poly Market, Cali,

Crypto.com, DraftKings, and FanDuel to

advise his agency on how to write the

rules for their own industry. But I'm

laughing because it sounds ridiculous,

but soon after he killed the rule that

would have banned political and sports

betting contracts. And he did this by

classifying prediction markets as

commodities, not gambling. because

commodities have way looser rules. So

now states that were trying to sue Poly

Market and Koshi for violating gambling

laws can't touch them anymore. And oh,

like by the way, he's doing this all by

himself. All four other commissioner

seats that were previously taken are now

empty. So it's just him writing these

rules advised by the very companies that

he's supposed to regulate. So that's the

funding, the political connections, and

the captured regulators. But remember

how I said that I didn't expect where

this all led to? Because if we're really

going to follow the money here, none of

it really works without one thing, and

that's you. Before, those who profited

from the war were only the insiders. But

now, every time you place a bet on war

breaking out or someone getting unlive,

the uncomfortable truth is that makes

you a war profiter, too. And so you

could blame the others and the big guys,

but $1 billion has already been bet on

this war alone. And congrats, if you

win, you just bet on human suffering.

And even when you lose out on your bet,

your money is what lets insiders cash

out half a million dollars the same week

everyone's gas goes up. So just like

defense contractors may not want it to

end, the prediction market business

model also doesn't need them to end

either. Because longer the crisis, the

more uncertainty. And the more

uncertainty, the more people trade. And

the more people trade, the more the

platform makes. And you're funding it,

too. But the thing is, the real cost of

all this goes beyond money. Because what

nobody's talking about is what happens

when the people placing the bets are the

ones influencing the wars themselves.

And this might be the most dangerous

consequence of what's happening right

now because remember that Venezuela

story I've been talking about? Well,

there's a part of the story I didn't

even tell you. When that bet was placed,

the odds on Poly Market spiked because

people watching this knew this wasn't

just some regular Joe. And what that

means is that that spike was visible to

anyone on the platform, which means it

includes the very people the operation

was targeting. An analysis in the

Irregular Warfare Journal calculated

that from the moment that bet was

placed, Maduro's security detail had

precisely 40 minutes to relocate him

before the US special operations team

arrived. So now really think about that.

What I'm telling you here is that

probably the most important asset in

warfare, the element of surprise, was

almost blown by some dude chasing bands

on a betting platform. And that was just

one bet on one operation. But now

there's 213 of these active markets on

this war. So what happens if foreign

intelligence catches on to that same

pattern? The consequences are different.

That next leak may not just end in a

compromised mission, but if we start

sending ground troops, that means

compromised American lives. And again,

the craziest thing of all this is that

the poly market CEO knows this and

encourages it allegedly because the poly

market CEO doesn't just go on 60 Minutes

and call prediction markets the most

accurate thing we have as mankind for no

reason. The access is what they're

selling. And it's exactly why CNN, CNBC,

and the Wall Street Journal have all

struck deals with prediction markets.

because I think you and I can agree that

new sources know better than anyone that

closer the source like the more valuable

the information. And I don't even have

to say allegedly because it's it's

happened. Two people in Israel were

charged with security offenses for using

classified intelligence to bet on the

June 2025 strikes. So what I'm telling

you is that what he's really selling

here is access to people who already

know the answer. And that's what really

worries me because what happens when

people with the power to decide when the

US strikes another country is also

invested in a market predicting when the

US will strike that country? No one's

been caught doing that yet officially in

America. But the thing is they don't

even have to be that corrupt to make a

bunch of money now. And that incentive

that exists wasn't there 2 years ago.

So, I guess we can just thank God that

this incentive didn't exist during World

War II because it could have been a lot

worse. But now the question becomes how

far does this all go and lead to? Well,

Poly Market has already answered that.

After the US has struck Iran, people

started noticing something. They noticed

that Poly Market has been quietly

running a market for years now on

whether nukes will be detonated by the

end of 2026. Over 650,000 have already

bet on it. And after the strikes, enough

people voted yes that odds reached as

high as 22%. So what's clear is that

there is really no line because the only

reason they pulled it was that enough

people started getting pissed. And so

what we're clearly seeing here is this

new reality of war right in front of our

eyes. When someone in Tran is sheltering

from bombs and an American soldier's

family is waiting for news just becomes

this other side of someone else's odds.

What's pretty clear is that war now

isn't just being fought. It's being

influenced, traded, and profited from.

And that system that makes that possible

is only getting and going to get bigger.

But with all that said, the part that

actually scares me the most isn't this

the money or even the national security

risk. It's what this does to how we

think. Because be real with me. Have we

ever been less equipped to have informed

opinions between the rage bait, the

brain rot, and the president that I

voted for that campaigned on no new

wars? We will have no more wars. No more

wars. No more wars. Is it a surprise

that most people have given up on

figuring out what's actually true? And

the thing is, when people stop trusting

their own judgment, something will

always fill that gap. And right now,

that something is a platform telling you

that you don't even have to read or even

think. in that if you just check the

odds, it will tell you what the truth

is. And what worries me is that that's

the definition of a world slowly going

towards mass delusion. But maybe that's

the point because that's the world where

these platforms profit the most. So no,

I'm not going to sit here and tell you

to stop using prediction markets. I'm

not your dad. But I do think there is a

version of this that we don't come back

from. Where every crisis comes with a

bet, we stop viewing this as human

suffering and conflict. And it's where

we stop asking what's true and start

asking what's the smartest bet. And

whether this video gets suppressed or

you cancel me in the comments, I have to

be real with you. We're fighting a war

we have absolutely no business fighting.

And when we're at the point where people

are placing bets on nukes, maybe the end

times are already here. But in a world

where everything has odds, maybe the

only hedge left is choosing to think for

yourself, even when the odds are against

you. But I will bet that if you do like

this video, you'll also like my free

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would rather watch this other video that

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