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Unfortunately, I Was Right

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Unfortunately, I Was Right

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387 segments

0:00

You see this face?

0:02

That's the face of a man who just made a

0:04

prediction on the internet for tech and

0:07

got it right. Let's just pretend we're a

0:09

big tech Google company. It costs

0:11

$50,000 a month and you're spending $1.3

0:15

million a month on just AI agents. To

0:18

replace those with just engineers would

0:20

Well, that kind of math you I mean it's

0:22

a number that kind of math you can't

0:23

just do off the top of your head. So

0:24

let's just say 30 engineers. That's like

0:26

30 engineers worth of people working on

0:28

something. You can't just do this for

0:30

every single project. Your company at

0:33

some point going to go, "Okay, time out.

0:35

We've made a mistake. We have decided

0:37

that we let you use all the tokens you

0:39

want. That's bad. We're going to go back

0:41

to the old days. Who's the most token

0:44

efficient?" And that my friends, that

0:46

prediction came right just a short 8

0:50

days later. Oh, what do you say? What is

0:51

this right here? Oh, is that Is that Sam

0:54

Altman saying something? He also said

0:56

the cost question came up quite

0:57

suddenly. At the beginning of 2026, the

1:00

issue never came up, Altman said. People

1:02

were totally happy with the amount they

1:04

were spending, he said. Now AI costs are

1:07

a huge issue.

1:08

>> [laughter]

1:09

>> I have correctly predicted the future in

1:13

only 8 days. And so obviously off this

1:15

high, off the high of the Uber COO

1:18

saying, "Yeah, token max token maxing. I

1:21

can't justify it. I don't even know I

1:22

can't even tell what features are being

1:23

made with this token maxing." But

1:25

nonetheless, after this amazing tech

1:27

prediction, I have decided that I'm

1:29

going to make five more predictions. Now

1:33

one of them's going to be heartwarming.

1:34

One of them is going to be what I think

1:36

is a good outcome. And then the other

1:38

three, nightmare scenarios. I think all

1:41

of these are going to come true within

1:43

the next 6 to 12 months, okay? And and

1:45

here's the other thing. None of these

1:47

predictions involve AGI, all right? They

1:50

all involve what seems to be the most

1:53

obvious answer of all time. Because when

1:56

you think about it for a second, like,

1:58

how did Sam not see this coming? Did he

2:01

never work at a company? Has he never

2:03

worked at a company where you had to

2:05

argue to spend $50, but then all of a

2:08

sudden every employee can just spend 10

2:10

grand on tokens? Brother, do you not

2:13

know how companies operate? How did you

2:16

not know this? Like, did you not have to

2:19

go to a VP and argue why you actually

2:22

needed an extra 8 GB of RAM? Like, did

2:24

you not live a normal ass life where

2:26

every last little thing was scrutinized

2:28

in a $1,000 meeting to make sure you're

2:30

spending $50 correct? Because that, my

2:33

friends, that's the corporate lifestyle.

2:35

Prediction number one, some of these AI

2:37

labs, they're actually going to attempt

2:39

to trade tokens for equity.

2:43

Oh.

2:44

Oh, Yes, this actually is

2:46

happening. This is not a prediction. I

2:47

just thought I'd throw this in there.

2:49

Just

2:50

This is insane, right? Okay. So,

2:52

actually token prediction number one is

2:54

going to have to be open source

2:57

donations. You, yes, you are going to be

2:59

able to donate a million tokens from

3:02

your budget into open source so they can

3:04

run CI or these other various tools that

3:07

may have to be run in some sort of

3:08

automated fashion, which costs open

3:10

source projects too much money. So, you

3:12

can be like, "Hey, have 10 million

3:14

tokens on your friend, okay? 10 quick 10

3:17

mil for you. By the way, those 10 mil,

3:18

those are Kimme Kimme 26s, okay? I ain't

3:20

paying for I ain't paying for no Chad

3:22

Jibity 55s, all right, buddy? And I

3:24

believe we're going to actually see this

3:25

within just the next few months. Open

3:27

source token donation. Yes, this one's

3:30

kind of nice, you know? Like, oh, that's

3:32

this is kind of sweet, you know? People

3:33

out there trying to make the world a

3:35

better place via tokens. Okay, that's

3:37

that's kind of nice. It's something kind

3:38

of like protein folding, you know how

3:40

you could donate your computer? Well,

3:41

now you can donate your tokens, maybe to

3:43

cancer research.

3:46

I know the frontier modelers keep

3:48

telling us how they're going to do this,

3:49

but maybe you'll have to be the one

3:51

donating your tokens for that to happen.

3:52

But either way, token donations, highly

3:55

likely we're going to see this in the

3:57

next few months. I had to get that one

3:58

out of the way because that's the nicest

4:00

of all the predictions. The next

4:02

predictions are going to progressively

4:03

get more and more deranged. But first,

4:06

big thank you to the sponsor.

4:08

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4:11

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4:13

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4:19

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4:21

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4:24

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4:27

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4:28

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4:30

news and token cost and everything, is

4:32

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4:37

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4:40

breaking the bank. So, check out

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Composer 255 from Cursor.

4:44

Thanks, Cursor.

4:45

Now, back to the video.

4:47

Okay, hey. So, number two is kind of a

4:50

bit of an interesting one. I think that

4:53

when companies start hiring people,

4:56

they're going to of course give them the

4:58

dollar bills, right? And then they're

4:59

going to also give them the stonks,

5:01

which of course actually just simply is

5:03

dollar bills that grow. Then, you know,

5:05

they also get like 401k matching and all

5:08

these other things. I know that's very

5:09

American of me, but you get you get some

5:11

sort of benefits that go along with it.

5:13

But I think there's going to become a

5:14

fourth category that's going to happen,

5:17

which is token budget. You're going to

5:19

be given a yearly token stipend. And

5:22

however you choose to spend that at your

5:25

company to get your work done is on you.

5:28

And if at the end of the year, your

5:30

token spend is less than your token

5:33

budget, hey, you're going to have a

5:34

bigger, fatter, nicer bonus at the end

5:37

of the year because you're getting your

5:38

work done and you're not costing the

5:40

employer too much. This is going to

5:41

obviously incentivize people to be more

5:44

efficient with their tokens. Oh, you're

5:47

like a super-duper ultra engineer and we

5:49

whole super believe in you. Here's a

5:51

100k budget. Blow it all you want or

5:55

be super efficient with what you do, you

5:57

get to keep some of that money.

5:58

Incentivizing good behavior. Of course,

6:00

this is a once again one of my nicer

6:03

predictions, but I can actually

6:04

definitely see this some sort of

6:06

incentivization

6:08

for your behavior not just blowing

6:10

tokens like wild. Okay, we do not need

6:13

100 more dashboards. Like maybe just

6:16

maybe planning things out and thinking

6:18

about things ahead of time might be the

6:20

best way. Like dog, I know you got 10k

6:23

more in you, but maybe you don't need to

6:25

get those lines out right now, okay?

6:27

Hey, take a step back. It's okay, buddy.

6:29

All right, we're starting to enter into

6:30

the unhinged territory, all right? This

6:32

is where things are going to get a

6:33

little um

6:34

strange. Prediction numero three. You

6:37

remember planning poker? You remember

6:39

Agile? Remember, you know, back in the

6:41

day long before vibe coding? You have to

6:44

You used to have to like sit down and be

6:45

like, "Mhm, this task is a is a medium."

6:47

And then everybody would play this game

6:49

of poker, which by the way, set it

6:50

aside. That's not poker. I hated the

6:53

fact that they called it planning poker

6:55

because what are people bluffing? Are

6:58

people actively lying to me? I'm pretty

7:00

sure this is called "Hey, get guess a

7:03

number as to what you think this is

7:05

going to be." And if everybody guesses

7:06

the same number, that might be just what

7:08

it is. Like it's not That's not poker,

7:10

okay? That's not poker at all. Hated

7:12

that, okay? Sorry. Either way,

7:14

we're going to see something a little

7:15

bit different, okay? My little vibe

7:17

coders, my little sweet summer children,

7:18

I know you're not familiar with that

7:20

process, but

7:21

new process is going to land and it's

7:23

going to look something like this. All

7:24

right, hey, we got this feature coming

7:26

up. We're going to play a little bit of

7:28

token poker.

7:30

Uh everybody get your cards out. How

7:32

many millions of tokens do you think

7:34

this this feature's going to take? Ooh,

7:36

I think this is I think this could be

7:37

done for 10 million Kimmy 26 tokens.

7:40

Throw that throw Throw in the hat. Some

7:42

people are going to be like, "Dude, this

7:43

is 50 million gippity extra high fast

7:45

tokens, okay? Cuz it's urgent. It's

7:47

going to cost us money." You're going to

7:48

have this entire session where people

7:49

are going to be playing poker. Which is

7:51

still not poker. About how much a task

7:54

is going to cost in tokens. You know I'm

7:56

right. You know I'm actually right. In

7:58

fact, I would not be shocked if someone

8:01

said, "We already do this. We already

8:03

token poker. We already But we already

8:04

put them token poker chips down, boy."

8:06

Like I already I believe it. I would be

8:08

I'm completely not surprised. But we're

8:11

going to replace Agile with token Agile.

8:15

Oh my gosh, the consulting class is

8:16

going to be so fun. Think about all the

8:18

consulting people that are going to come

8:20

into your company, reintroduce a new

8:22

version of Agile, and one of them is

8:24

definitely going to be token poker. All

8:26

right, so the final two predictions I

8:28

think are going to be the most likely

8:30

ones you're going to see pretty soon.

8:32

And they're going to probably re- like

8:34

wrought the most destruction on any

8:37

company. I believe these next two are

8:40

effectively what George Hotz was talking

8:42

about when he said, "I'm calling it now.

8:45

The adoption of AI agents into software

8:48

development will be one of the most

8:49

costly mistakes in the field's history."

8:52

Now, I don't think he's saying agents

8:54

are up here bad here. I think he's

8:56

saying there are some companies in which

8:58

they operate that are going to be

9:01

absolutely insane to budgets and just

9:04

just actually delete companies

9:06

completely out of existence. Prediction

9:08

number four I think can be best

9:10

represented by Microsoft's org chart.

9:13

Which is going to be instead of having a

9:15

company-wide budget for AI, which I

9:18

think will still exist, you're going to

9:20

have org-wide and team-wise budgets. And

9:24

this is going to cause people to lose

9:27

their damn mind. Because you know what's

9:29

going to happen. There's going to be

9:30

individuals out there just spending an

9:32

enormous amount of tokens, and their

9:34

whole team is is to just hate that

9:36

person. Or they're going to use their

9:37

entire team's budget and have to go back

9:39

to like hand coding and just absolutely

9:41

being so angry at what's going on. And

9:44

you know also what's going to happen

9:45

with this idea of kind of

9:47

this this these organizational wide

9:49

token spreading is there's going to be

9:51

middle managers that their entire job is

9:54

to like petition {slash} negotiate for

9:57

your team's allotted token limit. An

10:00

entire management class is going to be

10:02

created out of this. It is going to

10:05

it's going to be absolutely beautiful.

10:07

And then of course the natural

10:09

outcropping of all of this is that there

10:11

will be team members in which to save

10:13

tokens are going to start pair

10:15

prompting. Yes, you heard it here first

10:17

folks. I predict by the end of the year

10:20

you will definitely hear that phrase

10:21

paired prompting. They're going to get

10:24

together and really kind of hammer out

10:26

the perfect context {slash} prompting so

10:29

that they don't use too many tokens to

10:32

go and get the task done. And even

10:35

worse, there's going to be like these

10:36

team long activities, right? Cuz you

10:38

know how it's you you can technically

10:40

set up these agents to run for like a

10:41

day straight or 6 hours straight or

10:43

multiple days straight and they can just

10:46

spend so much tokens. So what you're

10:48

going to end up happening is these long

10:51

running tasks, the prompts to kick them

10:53

off will be like team reviewed. You're

10:55

going to have people actually on GitHub

10:58

knitting how the prompt was set up being

11:00

like, "Actually, you don't need to

11:02

threaten the grandma anymore. And

11:04

actually it's best to give them a

11:06

certain personality and then somebody

11:07

else is going to be like, "Actually, on

11:09

archive paper number 3,972,

11:12

it actually says personalities are

11:14

destructive." And it's just going to be

11:15

this non-stop shaman-like exercise where

11:19

they tell you the secrets of the prompt

11:21

and your whole team is going to be just

11:23

arguing over how to kick off these long

11:26

running tasks. It is going to be it's

11:29

just a thing of beauty. All right, the

11:32

fifth and and final prediction, which I

11:34

think is definitely the most unfortunate

11:37

because this one, if it's not already

11:39

true, will be true here very, very soon.

11:42

Which of course is that companies are

11:44

going to try to reward as hard as they

11:46

can the people who are using the most AI

11:50

by budgeting the AI specifically for the

11:53

people. So, what's going to end up

11:54

happening is they're going to review all

11:56

the get logs and be like, "Okay, well,

11:58

Brian over there, he only produced

12:00

10,000 lines of code last month, but

12:03

Timmy

12:04

Timmy produced 100,000. You know what?

12:06

Tokens for Timmy, but none for Brian.

12:09

Okay, nobody loves Brian, all right?

12:11

Everybody loves Timmy. You know this is

12:13

going to happen. They're going to find

12:14

the people just simply creating the most

12:17

change gets the most budget. And the

12:19

thing is is that this isn't even that

12:21

far from happening because if you

12:23

remember ClickUp from doing some of the

12:25

layoffs, one of their big things is the

12:27

100X organization. They're like they're

12:29

like setting forth kind of this idea

12:32

that there will exist organizations that

12:34

have 100X output. Well, how are you

12:36

going to get 100X output? You're going

12:38

to have to have an enormous budget, and

12:39

once obviously the budget hits the

12:41

fan, people are going to go, "Okay, we

12:43

need to reduce who gets to be a part of

12:45

this organization, who produces the most

12:47

code?" And it's just naturally going to

12:49

happen. They're going to find the

12:51

biggest slop cannons, and they're going

12:53

to put them into positions where they

12:55

get effectively unlimited budget. I

12:57

genuinely believe there's going to be a

12:59

company that is going to so thoroughly

13:01

code themselves into hell that they're

13:04

actually going to fail as a company due

13:08

to how much crap and burden they have

13:10

put on themselves with the promises of

13:13

the magical

13:15

sand rock computer talky thingies. I

13:17

don't even know what happened there. I

13:18

just got I got all my words mixed up.

13:20

All right, okay. I was coming in with,

13:21

you know, like the the magical sand that

13:23

talks to you. I don't even know what to

13:24

call it. What do you call it? They're

13:25

getting They're going to get owned

13:26

because somebody told them that the

13:28

magic rocks actually can predict the

13:30

future and will in fact lead them to

13:32

salvation and instead it just led them

13:34

to hundreds of thousands if not millions

13:37

of lines of burden and not technical

13:40

advantage. The name

13:43

is the primogen.

Interactive Summary

This video discusses the rising costs associated with AI agents in the workplace and makes five predictions about how companies will react to these financial constraints. The host reflects on his previous accurate prediction regarding the sudden focus on token efficiency in corporate AI spending and outlines how future management of AI resources—such as token budgeting, team-based allocations, and the potential emergence of 'token poker'—will significantly impact software development workflows and organizational dynamics.

Suggested questions

5 ready-made prompts