Why don't we start by just admitting

that GTA 6 is not a video game launch,

okay? This is the IPO of a digital

country. You know that, guys. I mean,

the market's modeling how many copies

are sold, but the real question is how

many people are going to move into this

world and never leave. I mean, that's

what you need to be thinking about as an

investor.

>> Well, they haven't even shown us that

they're doing a world. We're expecting

that they're going to try to monetize

and create the creator environment where

people can buy and sell video game

stuff, but is that a foregone

conclusion?

>> Well, the fact they've been working on

the game for 10 years, yeah, it

absolutely is. I mean, this is not about

box office weekend. Box office weekend

is really important, but really all that

it is are indication of how big the

annuity is going to be for Take-Two. If

you think about it, everything that

happens between now and game launch is

just a signal of how much engagement

and time and community they can build

around this game for the next 5 to 10

years. I mean, that that's all that

actually matters, right? This is either

going to be the next Roblox-style

platform or it's not. And if you're an

investor long-term, that's all you

really care about. You don't care about

if they sell, you know, a few more games

on day one than people expect unless

that's an indication of something bigger

because people are more hyped and this

game is actually delivering on

everything that they wanted that people

been dying for for the past 8 years

waiting for it.

>> But there's been so much negativity

online around pretty much everything

they've shown, which is not much. They

they haven't shown any gameplay action,

and what they have shown is they're not

planning on, at least on initial launch,

having any kind of online multiplayer

interactivity. It's a single-player

game, and people say, have they lost

their edge? The thing that made it cool

was that it was such a different game.

You've never seen a game with such

debaucherous imagery, and they're not

showing us that imagery. Have they lost

the edge?

>> All right. I mean, agreed that there's a

bear case here, which has nothing to do

with demand. Demand is going to be huge,

right? The bear case is expectations

have just become too psychotic.

>> there's no way that they come up with

the game that's going to disappoint like

that, right? And there's no way. Like

they know what their audience wants. And

so, it's useless to speculate until we

see otherwise, right? I mean, it it

should follow the same formula as

before, obviously with the added

internal economics that they're going to

release.

>> They do not release online on day one.

That's That's just not what they do,

right? So, all these expectations are

kind of ridiculous. They were never

going to release online on day one. They

have to phase in the excitement, right?

You can't do everything at once.

>> But do other games like I'm not a gamer.

Do other games launch on day one with

the full marketplace in place? Cuz that

that's how I imagine it. Roblox was was

a marketplace on day one, right?

Fortnite's uh that's always been a

marketplace, right?

>> It's different. And by the way, like I

think Roblox has what, paid out a

billion dollars over the last year to

their creators? That's what they're

going for. I mean, it's such So,

obviously the move the the move is

staggered. First, you have to generate

excitement around the game. You want

people to go through the narrative of

the game, right? Is that going to

deliver? Damn, it better, man. If it

doesn't deliver, this could get ugly

real quick. Not because day one sales

will be bad, because even if you're

complaining, you're playing. You're

buying the game. Everyone's buying this

game, okay? It has nothing to do with

how many people buy this game. It has to

do with how many people are going to

live in this game for the next five

years of their life. How much money

people are going to spend quarterly in

this game for the next five years of

their life. That's ultimately all that

matters for Take-Two investors. Now, if

the game is insanely good, that's a good

indication that they can build a

community around this, right? They can

build true creator content and monetize

the hell out of this for the next

decade.

>> Well, I I think that's that's what it

all comes down to. Are they going to We

know it's going to sell out. It's going

to be the biggest game ever. It will

sell the most copies, but are they able

to keep that audience engaged and turn

it into the platform that you're

imagining? And if so, how many other

people like you have already thought

that and thought Take-Two stock is going

to How much is already priced in?

>> I don't think all of that is priced in

here, Dave. It's just not. It's not

priced in. I think what's priced in is a

blockbuster, you know, day one, but

that's so obvious. I think what matters

here is not a few more or a few less

sales. What matters is how many people

are so engaged that they're willing to

spend on the $100 copy as opposed to the

$80 copy, right? That makes a huge

difference. If everyone comes in and

spends up for the extra features and the

bonuses that you get by buying this game

at $100 as opposed to 80. And by the

way, 80 is already high, right? Like I

think the de facto standard was like 70

before this. So, they're already raising

the bar to 80. But if the majority of

these people come in and spend 100,

that's a huge indication of interest and

engagement. I think a lot of this has to

do with the game three trailer. That's

the next trade on Take-Two. The game

three trailer could come out at any

time. We have not seen hardly any

gameplay at all. So, the game three

trailer is the moment for Take-Two

investors to determine is is real thing

or is this going to be somewhat of a

disappointment going forward?

>> I feel like there's been disappointment

all along the way though. Like trailer

two had a ton of views and a lot of

negative feedback on it.

>> Cuz expectations were too high man and

they didn't show anything in trailer two

really. That's I think that's part of

the problem. I would imagine this. They

know that there was backlash around what

they showed in that second trailer and

the company knows what they need to do

for trailer three. Okay? Like if they

screw up trailer three, we know we have

a problem because they knew what their

gamers wanted and for some odd reason

even with the delay, they could not

deliver it in a trailer. That's a huge

issue. If trailer three comes out and is

a disappointment, I'm going to tell you

guys right now, I'm not trading

Take-Two. I'm out. I'm out. But if that

trailer comes out and knocks it out of

the park, I'm all in. All right? That's

my trade.

>> But you're in the trade right now

already, Chris.

>> I'm not. I'm not in. I'm waiting on

trailer three. A trailer three for me is

the first big tradeable moment for

Take-Two. I think that will be our

biggest indication of do they have the

goods because they know they need to

deliver. Trailer three is what they need

to deliver to get those pre-sales really

cooking and to keep the momentum

positive as opposed to somewhat

negative, which is where it's been.

Okay? They have to deliver. If they

don't deliver, it means they have no

goods to deliver. It means that the news

is only going to get worse when people

actually get in the game.

>> That's the base case is that the the

game is not as good as what people are

expecting that GTA V,

which to me it's like we've gone a

decade. Are GT Are people even

interested in this game anymore? Clearly

they're interested, but if it's not as

good as what they had been playing

before, I just don't know if they can

actually convert into a whole platform

the way you're you're hoping. It really

does come down to what are they going to

show in the next trailer?

>> That's exactly correct. And and that's

I'm telling you that's the trade.

Trailer three is the trade for Take-Two.

So, if you're trying to figure out am I

in, am I out, am I long, am I short, you

have to be first to quickly analyze the

feedback loop that we're getting on that

trailer when it comes out and you have

to be mentally prepared to make a big

trade on it. I mean, that's all there is

to it. It's hard to say what that trade

is, but for me it's probably pretty

short-term. I would likely be trading

short-term options on that trailer

because I think the stock is going to

move pretty meaningfully one way or the

other that week.

>> And we've seen it's a volatile stock

anyway over the past year or just

year-to-date it's been up 30%, down 30%,

up 30% again. It's kind of trading in a

range. You're waiting for that breakout

moment or you're waiting for it to tank

a little bit and then ride the upside if

what you see in trailer three shows you

the goods.

>> Listen, like the fans are complaining,

they're going to complain but they're

still going to buy. That's what

ultimately matters at checkout, but I

think people are smarter than that on

this trade. I think analyst,

institutional Wall Street even, which is

weird to think that they're following

this video. It's the first video game

that they're actually care about. I

think everybody knows that this is a

platform trade. So, either the company

turns into the one of the biggest gaming

platforms ever with GTA 6 or this is

just a blockbuster sales event.

Everybody plays it and it I'm not going

to say it fizzles out, but it doesn't

become the next big thing. If you don't

think this becomes the next big durable

platform in gaming, kind of the

equivalent to like a Roblox style

creator economy where you have lots and

lots of people getting deeply engaged

with this game over the next few years

and it becomes social and monetizable

and I mean, you've seen I mean, you've

seen the crazy stuff I've been show-

sharing with you guys. People People

that are going to make communities and

like Aiden Ross is going like what? Like

like come up with a crypto coin so you

could exchange your GTA dollars into his

crypto and actually cash out. I don't

know that any of that's actually going

to happen.

>> But is that slime channeled or is that

in the game and does Take-Two have any

benefit from people building side

projects on top of the game?

>> I mean, listen, if they if they go down

the road to like a Roblox type thing, I

mean, it's it's massive, right? And you

know, they're paying out like I said, a

billion dollars this last year.

>> I think they have to, right? That's the

economics of video games now. To get

people engaged and actually make and

actually be able to create and make

something out of it and keep people on.

I think that's how video games have to

work.

>> But what are the demographics for a

Roblox or Fortnite compared to GTA? Like

I I just feel like GTA's for adults and

the other's for kids and kids have more

time to just spend aimlessly a amount of

unlimited time in in a game environment

and their parents' money.

>> 2026,

I would say that 2026 adult kids have

just as much time as real kids, maybe

more time than real kids to play games

cuz they don't have a bedtime, okay?

Like do you not realize how many people

don't leave their house anymore? Do you

not understand that there are a whole

subsection of society, guys, that don't

date, they don't leave their house, they

just play video games.

>> I guess the kids who grew up with Roblox

and Fortnite are now aging up to this

being age-appropriate for them all of a

sudden.

>> But Dave, they have jobs, they have

money then, they have real money. That

is the upside in this trade is that you

have tens of millions of men who have

meaningful amounts of money and don't

leave their house and they potentially

could turn GTA 6 into the biggest cash

machine that we have ever seen if

Take-Two doesn't mess up the gameplay,

okay? That's the trade. That is the bull

trade here, and you can't not be paying

attention to that because if they knock

it out of the park and they do build a

creator type platform on top of GTA 6 at

some point in the next year or two with

the online release, you are looking at a

juggernaut in gaming that is unmatched

because now it's not kids, it's adults

with real money. I think what matters

here, guys, are two things: the number

of people that are paying up for the

$100 copy as opposed to the $80 pre-sale

copy, and the reaction on trailer three.

I think that's all we got, guys. I like

like that that's what you need to be

focused on as investors. That trailer

three is going to show us who Take-Two

is in 2026.

Are they ready? Are they ballsy enough

to give people the game that they want?

Because if they actually give people the

game that they want, I mean, there's no

ceiling here. There's really no ceiling

as to how big this can get, and I will

be ultra long Take-Two going into the

release and beyond. I don't care that

the online comes out later. Some people

are saying months later, some people are

saying a year later. I don't care if the

creator economy part of this gets rolled

out slowly way later over time because

the market will trade [snorts] into that

future if the interest and engagement is

there in terms of the quality of the

gameplay. So, I think the trade is

happening soon. I think it's happening

in the next few couple months before the

release. I don't think it's about

numbers. I think it's about the game

itself.