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Why A Hot Jobs Report Spooked Wall Street

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Why A Hot Jobs Report Spooked Wall Street

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978 segments

0:00

Anyone who's got

0:01

their profitability is all about the

0:03

future, not the present, then higher

0:05

interest rates hurt them. But what it

0:06

reveals is the vulnerability of parts of

0:09

this boom, which is if there's a bunch

0:10

of AI investments that make a lot of

0:12

sense when interest rates are 3%, but no

0:14

sense when interest rates are 5%,

0:16

[music] then that says fairly small

0:18

tweaks could have big effects on stocks,

0:21

which is literally what we saw on

0:22

Friday. So, I'm not saying anything new,

0:23

but it sort of says strap in because

0:26

changes in investor sentiment could have

0:27

big effects.

0:29

>> [music]

0:33

>> Welcome to Profiting Markets. [music]

0:34

I'm Ed Elson. It is June 9th. Let's

0:37

check in on yesterday's market vitals.

0:40

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ rebounded

0:42

from Friday's sell-off. More on that in

0:44

a second. Chip makers rallied with Intel

0:47

jumping 10% on news that Google ordered

0:50

3 million chips from the company. Oil

0:52

eased as Israel and Iran pledged to halt

0:56

their strikes. And finally, Apple stock

0:58

fell nearly 2% on lackluster AI product

1:02

news at its developer conference.

1:05

Okay. What else is happening?

1:09

>> [music]

1:09

>> The May jobs report dropped on Friday,

1:12

and while it was a blowout, markets took

1:14

it as bad news. The economy added

1:17

172,000

1:18

jobs last month, more than double what

1:20

forecasters expected. The unemployment

1:23

rate held steady at 4.3% plus the March

1:26

and April reports were also revised

1:29

higher. Adding another 93,000

1:32

jobs. However, this strong report caused

1:34

a massive sell-off on Friday. The S&P

1:37

[music] closed down almost 3% and the

1:40

NASDAQ fell more than 4%. That was its

1:42

worst drop since liberation day. So,

1:46

here to unpack this report and also why

1:49

markets [music] reacted so badly, we are

1:51

speaking with Justin Wolfers, Professor

1:53

of Public Policy and Economics at the

1:55

University of Michigan and also founder

1:57

of platypus economics. Justin, great to

2:00

see you. Thank you for joining us again

2:02

on the show. I want to get into the

2:05

market's reaction, but before we do

2:07

that, let's first just make sense of

2:10

this jobs report which was seemingly

2:13

really strong. 172,000 jobs added in

2:16

May. The previous reports revised

2:17

upward.

2:19

Give us your read on on what we saw in

2:21

that jobs report.

2:22

>> I think we just saw really really good

2:24

news.

2:25

The re- I feel fairly confident and

2:28

comfortable saying that, but I want to

2:30

be clear. I will not normally see

2:32

172,000 and jump for joy. I'll normally

2:35

say look for confirmation with a few

2:37

other few more months. And so one of the

2:39

things that was so interesting is we're

2:41

now at three very strong months in a

2:43

row.

2:44

So I'm more impressed by the fact that

2:46

over the past 3 months we've averaged

2:48

job growth round about that pace. I

2:50

think it's 188,000 a month.

2:52

For folks who are keeping score at home,

2:55

that's the sort of my mom's a very very

2:57

hard taskmaster, but if I brought home

3:00

jobs numbers like that, my mom would

3:01

probably say, well done Justin. Good

3:04

job.

3:05

And so I'd say that to the US economy.

3:08

Well done.

3:09

>> What about people who who see this jobs

3:12

report and I've seen this online and

3:14

they say, I don't believe it. They're

3:17

lying.

3:19

You know, this is some sort of graft

3:22

from the president. I mean it seems that

3:23

a lot of people this is seemingly good

3:25

news. A lot of people don't want to hear

3:27

the good news because maybe their

3:28

experience of the economy isn't great or

3:31

they don't support the president. I

3:32

mean, what would you say to those people

3:33

who don't believe those numbers?

3:35

>> Yeah. So I'm actually going to put out a

3:36

piece tomorrow probably

3:38

if tomorrow's Wednesday

3:41

which dives into exactly that set of

3:44

issues and I'm going to like

3:46

relentlessly bore the hell out of my

3:47

audience. So let me instead be fun and

3:49

entertaining for yours.

3:51

Um

3:52

My favorite moment was look, I like to

3:54

read the data in the most honest way I

3:56

can. And so, when you see good news, you

3:59

say, "You beauty." Um

4:02

My favorite moment was by the way, I got

4:04

uh just an enormous amount of social

4:07

media vitriol

4:09

for It's completely clear that I've

4:11

spent far too much time praising the

4:13

president recently, and people are upset

4:15

at me.

4:16

Um

4:17

But, you know, my my attachments to the

4:19

truth not to a political narrative. My

4:21

favorite of these, by the way, is

4:23

Threads now has community notes.

4:25

And I there's a

4:27

post I I put out I mean

4:30

in which I say, you know, the economy's

4:31

going well, blah blah blah. There's now

4:33

a Threads community note

4:35

checking that and saying I'm wrong

4:37

quoting a different

4:39

uh post by Justin Wolfers.

4:42

Uh

4:42

>> Oh, wow.

4:44

>> Uh

4:44

So, I actually think it's it's great.

4:47

It's a good reminder for all of us to

4:49

have a little bit of intellectual

4:49

flexibility, to be willing to change our

4:52

minds, to be willing to update when the

4:54

moment demands it. I will say to you

4:56

very directly, there is no evidence

4:58

whatsoever

4:59

that this number has been in any way

5:01

falsified or tampered with.

5:03

Um

5:04

No data are perfect. This data surely is

5:07

not perfect. It's just an estimate. It

5:08

may later on turn out to be an

5:10

overestimate, but it's a good, honest,

5:12

totally serious estimate, and we should

5:15

update our views about the world

5:17

accordingly.

5:18

>> Yeah. Just in terms of where the

5:20

strength is in in the job market, and

5:23

what's something that we've been keeping

5:24

track of is over the past few months

5:26

really, the I guess

5:28

more than a year now, it seems as though

5:30

the one place where the job market is

5:33

really strengthening and growing is

5:35

health care, and then everything else

5:37

seems to be kind of lagging. Is that

5:38

still true?

5:39

>> Yes, absolutely. So, it's um it's

5:42

there's one sector called health care

5:43

and social services.

5:45

>> Yeah.

5:45

>> Uh which is since Trump became president

5:47

has created 901,000

5:49

jobs.

5:51

Everything else, every other part of the

5:52

economy, if you're not working in health

5:53

care and social services, the rest of

5:55

the economy actually has lost jobs.

5:57

Um,

5:59

now,

6:00

on its face, that's a very striking

6:02

claim. Um,

6:04

and you know, the last 3 months has been

6:06

a little bit more mixed than that, but

6:08

you know, you never want to go off 1

6:10

month, so that's why I'm saying, you

6:11

know, over the past year, it's all been

6:13

health care and social services.

6:15

Now, here's the thing, the rate at which

6:17

we're creating jobs overall is fairly

6:19

low.

6:20

That's because population growth is low.

6:23

So, the number of jobs we need to create

6:24

when there are fewer Americans is far

6:26

lower.

6:27

And so, what that in turn means is

6:29

there's always some industries doing

6:30

better than others,

6:32

but the closer you are to the whole not

6:34

growing very much, the e- the more

6:37

likely it is you'll end up in a world in

6:39

which one sector's doing all the

6:40

positive and everything else is a

6:41

negative. So,

6:43

the statistic, I think, is a very, very

6:44

interesting talking point, but it may

6:46

actually be somewhat less relevant than

6:48

it sounds like, simply because in a

6:50

low-growth economy, it's not unusual for

6:52

a bunch of sectors to be declining.

6:54

>> Yeah. Now, [snorts] just turning to the

6:56

stock market, uh, fell pretty

7:00

precipitously, and it's kind of

7:02

interesting why that is happening. Could

7:04

you just walk us through why are

7:06

investors not excited about this report

7:09

that seems to be showing that the

7:10

economy is doing well?

7:11

>> Yeah, so, um,

7:14

the first thing is, you know, very

7:15

strong jobs numbers. So, now, what you

7:17

want to do is go and play the game of

7:18

Federal Reserve. Um, and so, the Fed was

7:22

under some pressure to cut rates cuz it

7:23

was worried about the labor market.

7:24

We're not worried about it anymore, no

7:26

pressure to cut rates. It was under

7:28

pressure to raise rates cuz we're

7:29

worried about inflation.

7:31

So, we went from a somewhat balanced

7:32

argument to one of the arguments just

7:34

going off the table altogether. So, now,

7:36

the only question is, there's inflation

7:37

out there, what do you want to do about

7:39

it?

7:40

And the argument would be between those

7:42

who are like, well, it's a supply shock.

7:43

Let's just sit and wait for it to work

7:45

its way through the system. And others

7:46

who are like, I'm worried everything.

7:48

We're going to lose everything. Um,

7:50

let's hike rates, which is definitely

7:52

the position that young Kevin Walsh

7:53

would have taken.

7:55

We'll see what a grown-up one does in

7:57

just a few days time. So, step one,

7:59

strong economy. Step two, higher

8:01

interest rates for quite a quite a fair

8:02

way out now.

8:04

Um, and then step three

8:06

is as you said, markets overall um

8:09

shut the There's sort of two US stock

8:11

markets. So, you were just reporting on

8:14

the S&P 500 or on the the Nasdaq.

8:17

Uh, Goldman Sachs has recently put

8:18

together a very nice index, which is the

8:20

S&P 500. And we're going to take out of

8:22

it everyone who's AI or AI adjacent.

8:25

So, it's the non-AI

8:27

stock market.

8:28

And it turns out the non-AI stock market

8:31

rose by like a couple of hundredths of a

8:33

percentage point, but it rose. You know,

8:35

so I want you to think of it as flat.

8:37

So, all the market reaction, none of it

8:40

was in

8:41

Main Street.

8:42

It was all in Silicon Valley.

8:44

And that and then the question would be

8:47

why would that be? And that's because

8:50

the you know, the AI bet's a long-run

8:52

bet.

8:53

That OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and

8:58

Nvidia are going to be worth a lot in

8:59

the future in our new

9:01

AI driven future.

9:04

The higher our interest rates,

9:06

the less investors value profits that

9:09

are going to occur 10, 20, 30 years in

9:11

the future.

9:13

And so, that's exactly what happened.

9:15

So, uh the particularly startups, but

9:18

you know, generally anyone who's got

9:20

their profitability is all about the

9:22

future, not the present, then higher

9:24

interest rates hurt them. And so, I

9:25

think that's the story

9:27

for what happened. Now, I think the

9:29

somewhat broader and more interesting

9:30

thing is

9:32

the logic of that

9:33

pretty much makes sense. But what it

9:35

reveals is the vulnerability of parts of

9:38

this boom, which is if there's a bunch

9:40

of AI investments that make a lot of

9:41

sense when interest rates are 3% but no

9:43

sense when interest rates are 5%, then

9:45

that says fairly small tweaks could have

9:49

big effects on stocks, which is

9:50

literally what we saw on Friday. So I'm

9:52

not saying anything new, but it sort of

9:53

says strap in because um

9:56

changes in investor sentiment could have

9:58

big effects on the AI sector, which is

10:00

now such a big part

10:02

of US stocks.

10:04

>> Yes. And it was one of the key themes

10:06

going into 2026 from an investor

10:08

perspective, which is that we were

10:09

entering what we all thought was a

10:11

rate-cutting environment. And now it

10:14

appears after this data, which yes,

10:17

gives us good news, but it essentially

10:19

means that we all have one problem, and

10:21

that problem is inflation. What do we

10:24

want to do about it? The only real

10:26

solution to that, if you're at the

10:28

Federal Reserve, is you hike rates. And

10:30

now we look at the odds on Cal sheet of

10:33

of a rate hike before the end of the

10:35

year in 2026, it's gone up to around

10:37

52%. So it seems very probable. I guess

10:41

I think we're all on the same page if we

10:43

enter a rate-hiking environment, that's

10:46

not a great thing for stocks,

10:48

particularly these tech stocks that you

10:50

mentioned.

10:51

Uh but then there's a question of

10:53

how probable is it really?

10:55

And that probably goes back to

10:57

inflation. How bad is this inflation

10:59

problem? Yes, it's nice that we have

11:01

this employment problem out of the way,

11:03

we think, based on the jobs report. But

11:06

I guess my question to you is, given

11:07

what you're seeing in the inflation,

11:09

given given how quote-unquote good this

11:12

jobs report actually was, how likely is

11:15

a rate hike really?

11:17

>> I think it's currently more likely the

11:19

next move is up. Um it may not be too

11:22

far away.

11:23

There is an unknown, which is who is

11:25

Kevin Warsh. We're going to learn more

11:26

about that over the next few months.

11:28

Um

11:29

this old game it gets played out every

11:31

couple of years and then a bright young

11:33

explainer, in this case it's your turn

11:35

Ed, has to explain

11:38

good news is bad news.

11:40

And

11:41

>> [laughter]

11:41

>> I've always So, so you'd see this every

11:44

couple of years, which is something

11:47

unequivocally good happens, like the

11:48

labor market's healthier, the economy's

11:50

healthier, we haven't beaten it to

11:51

death.

11:53

And then Wall Street gets a little bit

11:54

too clever and it says, "Oh, well, so

11:56

that's going to cause the Fed to

11:57

overreact."

12:00

And the Fed will screw everything up, so

12:02

good news is bad news.

12:04

I've never been a fan of this story.

12:06

Um, because the other possibility is the

12:08

Fed could underreact.

12:09

Anytime you're confident you know which

12:11

way the Fed's going to screw things up,

12:12

you then have to say, "Well, and this is

12:14

how I know I'm smarter than the Fed."

12:16

And I know a lot of Fed economists and a

12:18

lot of them are smarter than a lot of

12:19

the rest of us on the outside and

12:20

collectively they're brilliant.

12:22

Um,

12:23

I think there's probably a reasonable

12:26

basis for the claim that

12:29

good news raises rates, which tilts the

12:32

playing field against firms whose

12:33

profits are a long way in the future. I

12:35

think that's not quite the full stupid

12:37

good news is bad news routine, but you

12:39

might start to see the good news is bad

12:41

news routine and then that's going to

12:42

It's going to be great for the show, Ed,

12:44

because every 2 weeks you're going to

12:45

have to explain it from first principles

12:46

slowly and um

12:48

>> [laughter]

12:49

>> you'll sound really clever. It'll be

12:51

good.

12:52

Have you already been doing it all week?

12:53

>> wait.

12:54

>> [laughter]

12:56

>> I can't wait. This is exactly what we

12:58

do.

12:58

>> Yeah.

12:59

>> Good news is bad news contradictions,

13:00

that's what it's all about. Just before

13:02

we we wrap here, the one thing I'd like

13:05

to point out is wage growth, which wages

13:07

rose 3.4%, but inflation's currently at

13:10

3.8%.

13:11

This is the bad thing if we're talking

13:13

just from a purely economics

13:14

perspective, which is that real wages

13:16

are falling. Um, I I just wanted to get

13:19

your read on what we're seeing in terms

13:22

of wages. This seems like

13:25

not a good trajectory. Uh, and I wonder

13:28

if it's going to continue.

13:29

>> Right. So, wages aren't keeping up with

13:31

prices. That's what you're seeing right

13:33

now. That's a magnificent talking point

13:35

if you live in DC and people in DC are

13:37

going to say it a lot. Now, part of that

13:39

is the spike in prices is very dramatic,

13:42

very recent, and very oil-based, and we

13:45

think probably temporary as in even if

13:48

oil prices stay high,

13:50

they're not going to continue to

13:51

contribute to inflation, which is the

13:52

rate of change of prices.

13:54

So, the idea that bosses aren't sitting

13:56

down and negotiating pay rises for

13:58

people minutes after the straight of one

14:00

was closed probably isn't that

14:02

surprising. I think the way to think

14:04

about this is wages move relatively

14:06

slowly and on average they tend to catch

14:08

up and the question is, you know, once

14:10

we've had a few months under our belt,

14:12

what are we seeing? So, I think it's

14:13

going to be a very

14:15

important political talking point while

14:18

surely premature

14:19

to say much about the slip in living

14:21

standards. And then

14:23

just one other story to brace yourself

14:25

for what is going to happen. I'm just

14:27

going to, you know, Ed, I know you're a

14:28

smart guy. You want to skate to where

14:30

the puck's going. And so, tell you what

14:33

next month's news stories are all going

14:34

to be. Um there'll be a bunch of think

14:37

tankers on Mass Ave in Washington, DC

14:39

releasing pieces saying um when real

14:43

wages are falling, no wonder Americans

14:46

are deeply unhappy.

14:47

And so, the fact that wages are half

14:49

point behind prices will lead them to a

14:52

completely different set of stories than

14:53

if wages are half point ahead of prices.

14:56

The idea that this is how we live our

14:58

lives strikes me as a little bit odd.

15:02

Um but I think also in terms of

15:04

storytelling misses the reality because

15:06

an important reality to remember is this

15:08

is what's happening on average.

15:10

On average, it's bad news that it it is

15:12

bad news that on average wages aren't

15:14

rising. But remember, each of us

15:15

actually lives our own independent lives

15:17

and we actually have very different life

15:19

cycles, right? So, Ed, my guess is the

15:22

last few years have been good for you.

15:23

You're a young bloke, so your wages are

15:25

rising every year. That's true of

15:26

everyone

15:27

round about your age. Turns out once

15:28

you're round about my age, it stops.

15:31

Um

15:32

and so what that means is

15:34

you will probably you and many people in

15:36

their 20s, 30s, and even 40s will

15:38

continue to experience wage rises ahead

15:40

of inflation. They'll just be a little

15:41

bit less than they might otherwise have

15:42

been.

15:44

And so these think pieces that people

15:46

are at home festering because they're

15:47

not getting real wage rises confounds

15:50

what's happening on average with what's

15:51

happening to most individuals.

15:53

Most individuals are going to continue

15:55

to be getting some form of real wage

15:57

rise, and I know someone's going to be

15:58

angry at me that I said that because

16:00

there are lots of exceptions to that

16:01

rule. There are lots of exceptions to

16:03

the rule. All I'm suggesting is

16:06

before you inhale those think pieces,

16:08

have a think about what it looks like at

16:10

the individual rather than the aggregate

16:12

level.

16:12

Um

16:13

plenty of people are going to be doing

16:14

okay. Plenty of people are suffering.

16:16

That's what the average tells us, but it

16:18

doesn't tell us that everyone out there

16:19

is suffering.

16:20

>> All right. Justin Wolfers, Professor of

16:22

Public Policy and Economics at the

16:24

University of Michigan, founder of

16:25

Platypus Economics. Justin, thank you

16:28

for cutting through [music] the noise

16:30

with us. We really appreciate it.

16:32

>> Great pleasure, mate.

16:33

>> We'll be right back, and if you're

16:34

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>> We're back with Prof G Markets.

19:01

As the IPO race intensifies, even the

19:04

world's richest companies are competing

19:07

for fresh capital. Meta is the latest

19:09

company that is exploring a massive

19:11

equity raise following Google's

19:13

announcement of a record stock sale last

19:16

week. The company [snorts] is planning

19:17

to spend $145 billion on AI

19:20

infrastructure this year with even

19:22

higher investments expected in 2027.

19:25

Meanwhile, SpaceX hits the market in

19:28

just 3 days with plans to raise $75

19:31

billion,

19:33

which would of course make it the

19:34

largest IPO of all time. And [music]

19:36

then Open AI and Anthropic are expected

19:39

to follow with potentially even bigger

19:42

fundraisers on the horizon. Joining us

19:44

to [music] discuss Meta and the broader

19:47

equity supply, we are speaking with John

19:49

Foley, head of the Lex column at the

19:51

Financial Times.

19:53

John, thank you for joining me on

19:55

Property Markets.

19:56

Just a slew of headlines all kind of

20:00

related, which is that all of these tech

20:02

companies are about to raise a ton of

20:04

money. Uh Google, of course, just did

20:08

their their uh equity offering, $85

20:11

billion that is ongoing right now. But

20:14

then we learned from the Financial Times

20:15

that Meta is going to do the same thing.

20:17

And then I'm also hearing online that

20:18

maybe Amazon's going to do an equity

20:21

offering, maybe Microsoft's going to do

20:22

an equity offering. Everyone's going out

20:24

and raising a ton of money. I guess the

20:26

big question is what does this actually

20:27

mean for markets? And what does this

20:29

mean for investors?

20:30

>> Well, in terms of what it means for

20:32

markets, this is a lot of money. So

20:34

part of the thing about AI is that huge

20:37

numbers become absolutely meaningless.

20:39

So Google's $85 billion equity raise,

20:41

Meta will no doubt try something

20:43

similar. Amazon, who knows who'll be

20:45

next, Microsoft, Oracle, you name it.

20:47

These are all like relatively small

20:48

numbers for these big companies. So

20:50

Google's equity $85 billion is only

20:52

about 2% of its market capitalization,

20:55

but they start to add up. And in terms

20:57

of how much equity the market can

20:58

actually absorb, the numbers become

21:00

quite um quite staggering really,

21:02

especially when you add in things like

21:04

SpaceX's IPO, upcoming equity issuance

21:06

by Open AI and Anthropic. We're getting

21:09

into kind of record levels of equity

21:10

issuance. So, investors are going to

21:12

have to decide fairly carefully where

21:14

they put their money. Um in terms of the

21:16

companies themselves, they've got big

21:18

spending plans as you said. They've got

21:20

finite cash flows from their operations.

21:22

And really they're doing exactly what

21:24

you're supposed to do if you think your

21:25

shares are highly valued or dare we say

21:28

it overvalued, which is issue as much

21:30

equity as you can and get while the

21:32

getting's good.

21:33

>> Yeah, it seems as if if you're if the

21:36

idea is to sell your stock now, which is

21:38

what they're all doing. They're all

21:39

deciding that the time to sell is now,

21:43

you can [clears throat] see that as a

21:45

good thing or you can see that as a bad

21:47

thing and that is

21:48

they might believe that this is the top,

21:50

that this is the moment when investors

21:52

are most exuberant. You said that

21:55

spirits are boisterous in your recent

21:57

column. I mean, is this

21:59

a signal that we're kind of at the top

22:02

or at least the animal spirits are

22:04

running dangerously too high?

22:06

>> I mean, we're all waiting for some kind

22:08

of signal that we are near or at the

22:10

top. And when Google announced this

22:12

equity raising, it's, you know, we a few

22:14

of us were watching nervously thinking

22:16

is this it? Is this the moment the share

22:17

prices are going to start to collapse?

22:18

And they didn't. Um [snorts] and

22:20

everything was kind of okay. We had a

22:21

bit of a wobble afterwards with some of

22:23

the microchip companies.

22:24

Uh like it for these companies it is

22:26

actually kind of sensible to raise

22:27

equity to some degree because equity is

22:30

you don't have to pay it back. So, if

22:31

you're investing in data centers, debt

22:33

can be quite troublesome because you

22:35

have to service your interest costs. At

22:37

some point you have to pay back your

22:38

lenders. Equity you don't have to do

22:40

that. So, it does give them a lot of

22:41

flexibility. It's an expensive way of

22:43

raising capital for sure, but also all

22:45

of these companies are quite large and

22:47

they're experimenting with lots of

22:48

different things. Google has been

22:50

raising uh money through issuing bonds.

22:52

Meta did a huge bond issue earlier this

22:54

year. Google's also issuing

22:55

convertibles. It's also bringing in

22:57

Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's

22:59

company to into its um capital structure

23:01

by issuing shares at a discount to them.

23:04

So, So, they're sort of doing a bit of

23:06

everything, which is kind of what you

23:07

want the CFOs of these companies to be

23:08

doing. You want them to be exploring the

23:10

capital markets, working out where the

23:11

opportunity is, and to some degree, you

23:13

want them to be quite sharp-elbowed. You

23:15

want Google to try and get in ahead of

23:18

Anthropic and OpenAI. There's a bit of,

23:20

like, I think there's a bit of the

23:21

hyperscalers trolling each other. Well,

23:22

if you're going to raise some money,

23:23

we're going to get in first using some

23:25

of the same banks that you're using and

23:27

try and raise slightly more than you do

23:29

a couple of weeks beforehand.

23:31

>> It's a really interesting point that you

23:33

know, Google might be seeing that

23:35

Anthropic's about to go public, OpenAI's

23:37

about to go public. Why don't we go in

23:39

and steal all of that hungry capital out

23:42

there that wants to invest in AI? But

23:44

interestingly, in that in that thesis,

23:48

there is an implication that if we get

23:50

out first, we're going to suck all the

23:52

capital out of the ecosystem, and

23:54

there's not going to be enough left for

23:56

the rest of you. Do you think that that

23:58

is a legitimate concern as these IPOs

24:01

start to ramp up that maybe the last one

24:05

is going to be the loser, that they're

24:06

not going to be able to raise as much as

24:07

the rest of them?

24:09

>> It's got to be a fear that is in

24:10

everyone's minds. Whether it's real, I

24:12

kind of doubt so. I'd I'd like to think,

24:14

I hope that investors still have some

24:16

discernment, and they will pick the

24:18

stocks that are the most appealing at

24:20

any given time. They'll put the capital

24:22

where it's going to get the highest

24:23

return. But if you're in this

24:24

hyper-competitive industry where

24:26

everyone is kind of going for the same

24:28

goal, which is to, you know, perfect AI,

24:31

attract the maximum number of enterprise

24:33

customers for your large language models

24:35

and for your various apps, there is

24:37

going to be some fear that if the market

24:39

does change track, if people do lose

24:42

their exuberance, then you don't want to

24:43

be the one that failed to raise capital

24:45

in time for that. So, so I I do think

24:48

that rationally there is enough money to

24:49

go around. I think that investors will

24:52

hopefully be relatively smart about

24:55

where they put it, but it makes perfect

24:57

sense to try and get in ahead of your

24:58

rivals.

25:00

It's what I would do if I were them.

25:01

>> Yeah. We also mentioned just the sheer

25:04

scale of the equity issuance. You've got

25:07

you know, Google $85 billion,

25:10

SpaceX $75 billion, and then OpenAI and

25:13

Anthropic, we don't know, but

25:15

probably in that ballpark. I mean,

25:17

that's the amount that they've been

25:18

raising in their private rounds. There

25:20

are some concerns now about the amount

25:22

of supply that is about to just be

25:25

injected into the market, that it might

25:27

be a shocking level of supply. And as we

25:29

know from Econ 101, more supply

25:33

generally means lower prices, or it does

25:36

mean lower prices. Do you think that is

25:38

a concern

25:39

going into the second half of the year

25:42

as well, that the supply might reduce

25:44

prices in the equity markets?

25:45

>> So, it could There could be some kind of

25:47

sell-off as people sell out of one thing

25:49

to buy into another. I mean, the S&P is

25:52

enormous. It's whatever, like $70

25:53

trillion of market cap, round number.

25:56

So, so this is still

25:58

relatively small compared with the size

25:59

of the overall stock market. Um so, I

26:03

don't think we're going to kind of hit a

26:04

brick wall in terms of available

26:05

liquidity, but we have seen from various

26:07

investor surveys that that people aren't

26:09

holding a lot of cash at the moment. Um

26:11

they are There are going to be some

26:12

trade-offs, and it'll be interesting,

26:13

for example, to see whether

26:14

shareholders, as a lot of people are

26:16

speculating, sell Tesla, for example, to

26:18

buy SpaceX because they've already got a

26:20

certain amount of Elon Musk in their

26:21

portfolio, and they'd rather kind of

26:23

rebalance that by swapping a bit of

26:25

humanoid robots and electric vehicles

26:26

for space rockets and Starlink and data

26:30

centers, what have you. So, I I think

26:32

that's one of the things that we're

26:33

nervous about, but it we'll just have to

26:35

wait and see what happens.

26:36

>> Yeah.

26:37

Just before we let you go, you mentioned

26:39

SpaceX. SpaceX is going public at the

26:41

end of the week.

26:42

Um I personally can't wait to see what

26:45

happens here. It's just the scale of

26:47

this thing is just absolutely

26:49

mind-blowing. Do Do have any thoughts on

26:51

this IPO and what might happen?

26:54

Um

26:56

What do you make of this company and

26:57

then what we've seen?

26:58

>> It's a great question. So, SpaceX is a

27:01

is a real like I'm I'm sort of sick of

27:03

hearing the word moonshots in the last

27:05

few weeks, but it is

27:06

>> [laughter]

27:06

>> literally and figuratively a moonshot.

27:08

It's like you look at this company and

27:09

we and I sat down and rolled my sleeves

27:11

up, tried to value it, and you find

27:13

yourself doing all these like ridiculous

27:14

assumptions, you know, if the world

27:16

spends X% of its GDP on satellite

27:18

communications by 2035. But really it's

27:21

like a number go up thing.

27:23

>> Right.

27:23

>> I think. You just you either believe

27:24

that Elon Musk is capable of something

27:26

truly remarkable and that we're all

27:28

going to be mining asteroids and doing

27:29

like Martian vacation travel by 20

27:32

whatever whatever it is or not. So, it's

27:35

really hard to justify this company's

27:38

valuation on fundamentals, but Musk has

27:40

done this before with Tesla. Tesla is

27:41

mostly option value on you believing

27:44

that Elon Musk can do something truly

27:45

remarkable. And SpaceX is just that

27:47

again. So, if you like the sound of

27:50

asteroid mining and spaceships, then

27:52

you'll buy the shares and it really

27:54

doesn't matter where he prices them. So,

27:55

I'm guessing it's going to go up quite a

27:57

bit on the first day. Don't hold me to

27:59

that, but I think there is still a lot

28:01

of exuberance around him and I think

28:03

there are a lot of people who are

28:03

waiting to get into the stock.

28:05

>> Goes up a lot on the first day. I'm with

28:07

you on that. Do you think it comes down

28:08

on the second day or the third or the

28:10

fourth or the fifth?

28:12

>> I don't want to be responsible for a

28:14

collapse in SpaceX stock, but I

28:17

but I think I feel about it the way I

28:18

feel about Bitcoin. I'm like, "Sure, I

28:20

can see that there's some utility to

28:22

this. I can see what you're trying to

28:23

do. Is this the price? Is can I

28:25

construct a discounted cash flow model

28:27

that tells me that the price is whatever

28:29

it is, $135 a share?" No, I absolutely

28:31

cannot. I have no idea where the shares

28:33

will land. So, I I would not be a buyer

28:35

at this point, but maybe I'm the one

28:36

who's going to miss out.

28:38

>> [snorts]

28:39

>> John Authers is the head of the Lex

28:40

column at the Financial Times. John,

28:42

thank you for joining us on Property

28:43

Markets. We appreciate it.

28:45

>> Thanks.

28:46

>> We'll be right back. And if you're

28:48

enjoying the show, be sure to subscribe

28:50

to the Profit Markets YouTube channel at

28:52

the link below.

28:57

Support for the show comes from Odoo.

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We're back with Profit Markers.

30:10

Just 3 more days until SpaceX goes

30:13

public. The company will raise $75

30:15

billion, making it the largest IPO of

30:18

all time. After that, Anthropic and

30:21

OpenAI

30:22

>> [music]

30:22

>> will go public. How much will they

30:23

raise? Unclear, but given the size of

30:26

their recent rounds, $65 billion and

30:28

$122 billion,

30:30

respectively, we can assume that those

30:33

IPOs will also be massive, likely around

30:36

$100 billion,

30:37

and almost certainly larger than

30:40

SpaceX's IPO. Then, there is Google,

30:43

which will raise $85 billion, the

30:46

largest equity financing event of all

30:48

time. And then after that, possibly

30:51

Meta, which supposedly wants to raise

30:53

tens of billions of dollars as well. So

30:56

that's already around $400 billion

30:59

in new equity supply. But wait, there is

31:02

more. Because according to Goldman

31:05

Sachs, nearly $500 billion worth of

31:08

shares are about to be unlocked after

31:10

their lockup periods expire this year.

31:13

So now we're actually up to roughly $900

31:16

billion, nearly a trillion dollars in

31:19

new equity supply that is about to hit

31:22

the stock market. Why does any of this

31:24

matter?

31:25

Well, it all goes back to supply and

31:27

demand. There are two reasons why the

31:30

price of a product falls. Either one,

31:33

demand goes down, or two, supply goes

31:36

up. This is Econ 101. It's the most

31:39

fundamental principle of economics, and

31:41

it's what makes Chinese electronics so

31:43

cheap and American houses so expensive.

31:47

Well, here we have a similar situation

31:50

about to play out in the stock market.

31:53

And that is that the supply of new stock

31:56

isn't just about to rise or increase, it

31:59

is about to explode. We are about to

32:02

inject the equivalent of the entire

32:04

stock market of Italy into the US equity

32:07

markets. What does it mean to

32:10

dramatically increase the supply of a

32:12

product? Well, it means dramatically

32:14

reducing the price of that product. The

32:17

US stock market is about to get hit with

32:20

a force more powerful than gravity, and

32:22

that is the force of supply and demand.

32:25

I talk more about this in the latest

32:27

edition of my newsletter on Substack,

32:30

but the thesis is quite simple. [music]

32:32

Supply is about to go way up, which

32:34

means this is likely the [music] top.

32:37

Look out below.

32:39

Thanks for listening to Property Markets

32:41

from Property Media. If you liked what

32:43

you heard, subscribe to our YouTube

32:44

channel and tune in tomorrow for [music]

32:47

more.

32:53

>> [music]

Interactive Summary

The video discusses the recent market volatility, attributing the sell-off following a strong jobs report to the inverse relationship between high interest rates and the future-focused profitability of AI companies. It further explores the implications of a massive influx of new equity supply from major tech companies like Google, Meta, and upcoming IPOs like SpaceX, suggesting this surge in supply could exert downward pressure on stock prices based on fundamental economic principles.

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