All right, Alexander, let's talk about

uh what's happening with Project

Ukraine. And let's focus on uh Putin and

his recent comments during Russia Day

where he spoke with uh with military uh

officials, not not high level officials,

uh soldiers,

>> uh combatants, special forces, uh the

the military that is involved in in the

conflict and has seen action on the

front line. And uh Putin said some some

very uh interesting things during his uh

his talk his statement during uh this

this meeting with uh with military

personnel and military officials. Uh

what what uh what did Putin say? And

there's been a follow-up meeting, by the

way, which is equally interesting, which

was about the redevelopment of the um

regions that the Russians now control or

intend to control, Donbass and Novora,

in which he also said some very very

interesting things. Now, we've had many

Putins over the course of this war. We

had the Putin of last year who was all

about negotiations, meeting Kushner and

uh and Witgolf, uh having summit

meetings with Trump, doing deals in

Anchorage, talking about better

relations with um the United States,

looking for diplomatic settlement. The

Putin then that we had that Putin

basically disappeared after the attack

in Valdai um which took place in

December. Then we had a long period when

he basically um stopped talking about

Ukraine entirely. Then over the last few

weeks he's back and this meeting that

you mentioned, the one on Russia day

with the middle ranking officers was the

most important meeting. And this is a

completely different Putin. This is no

longer the Putin of last year. He's no

longer talking about negotiations. He no

longer expects to see negotiations. He's

focused on victory, military victory.

He's talking about soldiers. He goes

enormously into details about drones and

drone warfare and science and technology

and the laboratories that are developing

the drones and how to counter the

drones. He's talking to the soldiers

about what they need in order to win on

the battle fronts. Um it is a completely

different Putin from the one we saw um a

year ago and it is in line with the

Putin that we have been seeing and

hearing over the last couple of weeks

but perhaps taken to an even further

level. So my take negotiations are

ended. The Americans as far as Putin is

concerned have let's put it like this

60% withdrawn from the war. There's

there's still 40% there. They're still

guiding the drones. They're still

providing the intelligence. They're

still involved in all kinds of covert

activities, but they're no longer

sending arms and money directly to

Ukraine as they used to do. And as far

as Putin is concerned, I think he feels

that he achieved that last year and he

is going to bank that. Um the Europeans

he is utterly scathing about. He doesn't

consider that there's any prospect of

negotiation with them at all. He's very

confident about the military situation

and his whole emphasis now is on giving

the soldiers or at least appearing to

give the soldiers everything that

they're asking for. He's involved with

the military-industrial officials to

make sure that the soldiers get the

weapons they need to win the war and to

win it victoriously. And in the

follow-up meeting that took place after

that meeting on Russia day, he was

talking about reconstruction

of these new Russian territories. It was

absolutely clear to me that they include

the whole of Zaporo and Herson. He set a

time for that reconstruction

to have brought all of these regions up

to the same level of living standards as

you find in across Russia. That time is

2030,

which gives you some idea of the

absolute

outer limit of how long the war will

continue. Putin expects the war in

Ukraine to be ended victoriously before

2030.

>> Before 2030. Well,

>> yeah.

>> Well, we're in 2026. So, that's four

years. That's four years into the

future. Plenty of time. Plenty of time.

Uh, but

>> what does that really mean? Next year, 6

months. Next year, two years, three

years. I mean,

>> I I doesn't really say much. We are

talking about a long period of reconstru

Oh, but I mean there were some people

there were some people where I've been

who have been talking about a 10-year

war. He clearly doesn't expect a 10-year

war. Um if he's talking about bringing

Donbass Zaporo in Hers region up to

Russian standards, Russian living

standards and all the other things that

go with that, you know, replacing lifts

in apartment buildings, rebuilding uh

cities, doing all of that kind of thing,

it probably means he expects the war to

be ended perhaps sometime next year.

>> Yeah. 2030 would put it right at the

same time that NATO is going to to start

their war with Russia, right? 29. So, so

you finish Ukraine and then you start up

with NATO. Is is that the plan anyway?

>> Well, I if NATO and Europe is serious

about

>> if NATO well a lot to say about that

with again video yeah

>> different video um is

>> but but negotiations that that stage is

behind us. I think that's conclusively

no. Yeah.

>> Yeah. Um, is is Putin misreading the

situation with the Trump administration?

>> Um, the US has withdrawn support to to

Ukraine

>> kind of. Um,

>> is it because the US wants to withdraw

whatever support they've uh they've

given to Ukraine or is it because they

have to given the situation with Iran?

um they just don't have the the weapons

to to send to Ukraine or if they they do

have any weapons, they're going to

prioritize them for for the war against

Iran, for Israel, for the Gulf uh uh

allies, the Gulf partners. So, I mean,

did did did the US make the decision or

or was this more out of necessity for

the United States? So, is Putin

misreading what's happening with the US?

Well,

it's it's important, I think, if I if

it's the other situation because if you

do get the the ceasefire, the 60-day

memorandum, ceasefire, you have a pause

in in the fighting, um what are what are

the risks or the chances that the Trump

administration says, "Okay, now we can

we can sell more weapons to NATO to to

give to Ukraine." I mean, it's not so

much the US making a choice rather than

being forced to to to make that choice.

This is absolutely possibly true and I

suspect there's a lot of discussion and

debate about this still within the

Kremlin. But I think the the general

Putin's own view, and I don't think this

is unique just to him, is that the

Americans actually um really do want to

start pulling their forces out of

Europe. I mean, he sees that the

Americans are pulling troops out of

Europe. He sees that General Kinkovic is

pouring cold water on all the

suggestions that the Russians are about

to attack Europe. I mean, he he this is

the US NATO commander. Um he said

there's no evidence that the Russians

really are planning an attack on Europe.

Um he he um sees that the US is now

increasingly focused on China and that

seems to be the Pentagon's priority.

When there was an there was an

announcement by Trump that he was going

to deploy 5,000 troops to Poland, the

Pentagon hated it and they made it very

clear that they don't like that

announcement at all and they seem to be

determined to scotch it. So what I think

Putin is thinking and he may be

completely wrong and in a new

administration may reverse the policy

entirely but I think what Putin is

saying to himself is by being very soft

softly softly with Donald Trump he's

allowed the situation to come about

where the Americans are able to scale

down their support for Ukraine which

they were already doing before the

attack on Iran. And um he's also giving

the Americans the space to pull their

forces increasingly out of Europe. And

the reason they want to do that is

because the focus, the American focus

now is China. And it is unlikely that

they are going to come back. Now all of

this is very much calculation. It may be

completely wrong. It may be that we will

get a Democrat administration reelected

in 2028 which will have a totally

different agenda and may go back to the

Biden agenda again of recommitting to

Ukraine and to Europe and to all of

these things. But for the moment, whilst

Trump and the Republicans are still in

office, Putin probably calculates that

this will hold. He's got the space to

continue the war. And yes, the Americans

have not totally withdrawn, but they

have withdrawn enough to make things a

lot easier for the Russians in Ukraine.

So, they will just focus on the war from

now on.

>> Well, I think that is the calculation.

>> Yeah, I understand that calculation, but

uh I don't even go to to the next

elections to the 2028 uh elections. What

happens if Trump most likely will lose

the the House, possibly the Senate, and

the Democrats start up a new Russia

gate, which is very, very likely, a new

impeachment, a new Russia gate. Trump is

is is a Putin puppet. Look what he's

doing with Ukraine. He's withdrawing

from Ukraine. Um, and and all this

stuff. So, what does Trump do? His

administration, they say, "Okay, let's

start pouring more weapons into into

Ukraine. More javelins and and more more

um yeah, long-range missiles or whatever

in order to prove that we're not a Putin

stew." that that can easily happen in in

6 months. Very easily happen. And then

everything the dynamics change. What

about the CIA?

Yeah, sure. No weapons to or or or less

weapons to Ukraine, but still providing

satellites, still providing the

Starlink, still giving all of the

targeting stuff. And you you also start

to shift, and we're already seeing this

uh to to the covert war. So you just say

to the CIA, Europe, we're going to sell

you the weapons. You do what you need to

do. CIA, you guys do what you need to

do. As President Trump, I'm just going

to pretend that that I'm not engaged

with Project Ukraine and focus on China

in the Middle East. The the the covert

war, I think the Russians are fully

aware of and they're preparing for as

well. And this is something I will

discuss when I get back to London. If I

can just say, I mean, the the the

Russians are fully aware that that is

coming. Um, I think you're absolutely

right on every single point you made. I

think that the Russians actually, and

I'm going to say it, I think they have

they don't fully understand the

complexities of the American political

system. They don't understand that if

Congress flips um the whole dynamic

might change again. And Putin is m

making a calculation. And I think this

is in fact I'm confident he is making

this calculation, but he's making this

calculation. It might very well turn out

to be wrong. But that is the calculation

nonetheless that he's making that Trump

will remain sufficiently in control in

the United States right up to the time

of the next presidential election. And

the Russians are winning the war. He's

absolutely I think Putin has no doubt

about this whatsoever by the way. And I

think and and by the way the

overwhelming sentiment amongst the

people I've been meeting here. We will

talk about this more in London is that

the Russians are definitely winning the

war. So he is confident. He thinks he's

pushed the Americans to a great extent,

not totally to one side. He doesn't take

the Europeans perhaps as seriously as he

should. There may be another

miscalculation there. I think he maybe

underestimates

how uh uh you know reckless some people

in Europe are.

He thinks that at the moment the key

thing to do is just focus on the war on

drones on Rasvet which is Russia's own

equivalent to Starink which he seems to

believe is going to come into operation

very soon and that's all he needs to

focus on at the moment.

>> Yeah, a very soft approach with the with

the Europeans and with the drone

situation. um almost a non-existent uh

approach with with the drone situ at

least that's how it seems. Um

>> yes I I I I

harden my view about the drones by the

way here um in in in Moscow there might

be a lot of people who are angry about

the drones but here where I am which is

outside um I I I get a completely

different vibe but this is again

something we'll talk about when we are

>> Yeah. Yeah. because I've also got

stories when I was in Moscow of of

certain things with with with the drugs,

but we'll we'll discuss that when you're

back.

>> Yes.

>> Um the the G7, just to wrap up the

video, the G7 is going to be taking

place in France.

>> Uh Trump is going to attend a uh a

working session with the G7 leaders and

with Silinski.

>> Um he's not going to at least the

announcement, his itinerary does not

show a bilateral meeting with Silinski.

positive that the Europeans will figure

out a way

>> to get Trump into a situation where he's

sitting down with Zilinski probably with

Makaron babysitting.

>> Um but but so far it looks like Trump is

going to be meeting in bilateral uh in a

bilateral scenario

with uh with the Gulf states that are

going to be attending the G7, not with

uh with Silinski. Uh what does that tell

you? that he doesn't like Zilinski very

much and doesn't want to meet him and um

um that basically he he sees Zilinski as

a problem rather than a solution to

anything. But again here um this is

again a sign of Trump's own limitations

because he may not like Zilinski but

he's never cut him off. He's never

refused to meet Zilinski. He's never

really put any significant or sustained

pressure on Zalinski. One wonders

whether he wants to or whether it's a

case that he can't. But he will meet he

will meet with Zilinski. He will meet

with the Europeans. The Europeans have

changed nothing in their stance. They

continue exactly in the same way as

always.

um

he will be put under pressure. He will

be maneuvered into a meeting with

Zalinski. But Zalinski is expecting

Trump at the present time to produce

Patriot missiles. It's not going to

happen. All right, we'll end the video

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