All right, Alexander. Let's talk about

the situation in Iran, or actually the

situation between Iran and the United

States

and the the deal that will be signed

maybe maybe today, maybe tomorrow.

Who knows when, but all all signs, at

least from the Trump administration and

some signs from from Iranian officials,

including the foreign minister, is that

we're very close to the signing

of this MOU. Of course, we've heard that

40 times before. So,

what's what's the situation? Or how do

you see things?

>> The the thing that makes it look as if

this time it is for real is that the

Iranians appear to be saying that we are

indeed close to this.

And it's not been widely talked about,

but there was a meeting between Iran

representatives from Iran, China, and

Russia. So, it looks as if the Iranians

were briefing the Chinese and the

Russians about the deal, and that

suggests and the Pakistanis are also

saying that we are about to get a deal.

It could be signed on Sunday

or it might be signed a little later,

but we are close to a deal. If so, then

everything that I'm hearing about it um

everything I'm learning about it

suggests it is exactly the same deal

that was there basically on the table

about two, three weeks ago. And then if

you remember, we had a troop of neocons,

uh um

um uh Lindsey Graham, um um

um others as well, Ted Cruz, all came

out and criticized the deal. Netanyahu

telephoned Trump. The deal then fell

apart at the last moment. We then had an

extraordinary period of military

escalation that lasted for several uh

weeks.

Uh and then uh we've gone through all of

that. Nothing much has been achieved

during that period. In fact, nothing at

all has been achieved in that period.

Inflation numbers are rising in the

United States. Trump's popularity in the

United States has been falling. And

well, it looks like we're back to where

we were

two or three weeks ago as I said with

the essentially the identical deal was

on the table.

>> This is not really

an end to to the conflict. What you're

looking at if this does get signed.

You're you're looking at at an MOU and

the beginning

of real negotiations. I mean, that's

that's what we're talking about here.

This is not going to This is not a a

deal that ends everything and and all

the fighting has stopped.

And we've come to some sort of a

resolution between the the various

sides. We're looking at real

negotiations

beginning for 60 days.

>> This is a vitally important point. We

are not anywhere close to an actual

deal. All we are looking at in effect is

an extension of the current ceasefire.

Now, there going to be certain things

that will happen supposedly as a result

of that. The Strait of Hormuz is going

to be reopened, but it's going to be

reopened with the Iranians still

in essential control. They're not going

to be levying fees apparently. But they

are going to still be there. The United

States is going to back off its sea

blockade. But essentially, it is a

return to the situation which existed

before the 28th of February when the

conflict began except of course with the

critical difference that before the 28th

of February, the United States thought

that it could attack Iran,

achieve regime change, or at the very

least

push the Iranians towards some sort of

capitulation.

And now they know that they can't and

that Iran is much more powerful and much

stronger than they assumed it was. So,

the balance

the the balance of negotiating power

will have shifted in favor of the

Iranians. But, that doesn't mean that

the deal is uh done or anything like it.

It doesn't mean that we don't have a

real possibility of a return to conflict

later. The Iranians early on in the war

said that they were not going to end the

conflict. They weren't going to stop

fighting until there was a final

settlement agreement because they

worried that if there was an interim

agreement, a temporary ceasefire in

effect, which is what we are getting,

then the Americans would go back, come

back, and they would try again, and

there would be another war. They were

saying this very clearly throughout

March. And then China told them, "You

have to agree to a ceasefire." And they

agreed to a ceasefire. And this prolongs

that ceasefire. But, it doesn't mean

that we're going to get a final

agreement between the United States and

Iran on nuclear issues, on any other

issues.

There's a possibility that we could be

back in a war situation. But,

nonetheless, and notwithstanding,

the balance of strength now has tilted

much further towards Iran.

>> Is this just about buying time, even if

we get a signature to this MOU?

Is this really all about buying time for

the United States and and Israel? They

They can restart, they can rearm.

They can rethink

how to go after after Iran.

Of course,

this also gives Iran time as well. If if

they're coordinating with China and

Russia, this gives them time to to

prepare as well.

Um is is much of this just about media

optics at least for President Trump to

have this virtually signed on his

birthday while he has the the big MMA

fight and 250 years and and all of all

of this Bretton Woods stuff for him to

have this this deal signed today

virtually.

He can then come out and give give a

speech and then talk about how he's the

peace president and he's resolved 10

wars or 15 wars or whatever. Give me a

Nobel Peace Prize. It's my birthday,

everybody. I mean,

is that what this is really about? Are

are we

are we seeing both sides trying to to

genuinely

figure out how to how to end the

fighting? It doesn't feel like that's

that's what's going on.

>> It is exactly how you have described it.

There is no good faith and no trust

between these two sides. As far as the

Israelis are concerned, this is

obviously unfinished business. The

Israelis absolutely still want regime

change in Iran. If you follow the

Israeli media as I do, you can see that

there has been no change in Israel's

long-term objectives with respect to

Iran. Netanyahu's objectives have not

changed. Um Netanyahu doesn't want this

agreement um

because he worries that the Iranians

will use it to strengthen their

positions. But of course, if there is a

ceasefire, you are absolutely correct.

That is exactly what each side is going

to do. They are going to prepare for the

next round. Now, here we come back to

that meeting between the Iranians, the

Chinese, and the Russians because I

assume that the Iranians understand this

perfectly well. They probably realize

that it's very unlikely that even the

terms of the MOU are going to be

implemented. I mean, the chances that

the US will unfreeze assets and pay back

Iran money, I would have thought are

nil, actually. So, this is preparation

for the next round. The question is, who

will prepare faster

and better?

And Iran, this time, I think, probably

understands that

in the future, it does need to accept

more of the help that it's been

previously offered by its friends. And I

suspect that's what that meeting with

the Iranians and the Chinese and the

Russians was about. So, we we will

probably be back in war in a year's

time.

>> If if everything gets signed and we have

60 days.

>> If everything gets signed and we get

>> is is is quite a long time.

>> And realistically, 60 days is not going

to be enough for a final agreement. Not

Not Not over such a very complicated

issue as the one we're seeing. And with

so many outside parties, the Israelis on

the one hand and the Chinese and the

Russians on the other, different

factions within Iran, different factions

within the United States, very very

difficult to And no negotiating team

on the part of the United States. I

mean, unless if we're talking about Wed

Golf and Kushner, they're not going to

be able to negotiate anything. So, um

it's Expecting that this is going to be

resolved fully and completely and

finally in 60 days is, I think,

completely unrealistic.

>> Look, with the money, they found a

workaround. I I wouldn't be surprised if

Iran gets some money, 3 billion, 6

billion, 10 billion. Um

They They figured that out. Qatar and

and the UAE will give that money to Iran

so the United States can say well we

didn't give any money to to Iran and and

that's important for Trump because Trump

is bashing Obama all the time because he

sent pallets of cash to to Iran. And so

it's very important for Trump not to

appear to be giving money

to Iran. So they figured that one out.

They told Qatar just give them 5 billion

or 10 billion. What's 10 billion to

Qatar, right? Anyway, so so they figured

that part out.

Uh the the thing that that that it looks

looks like to me is going on

just to wrap up the video is that the

the United States forget about Trump.

The US strategic planners, the the war

planners, and the deep state in the

United States has figured out that the

best approach, given everything that's

happened, perhaps the only approach to

pick apart Iran now

is is to to do it like they did Syria.

Yeah, over time. Step by step so you

have this this slow burning conflict

that starts and stops, starts and stops,

and and you have all of this stuff going

on over over 6 months, a year, 2 to 3

years, whatever. Even the administration

changes and you get a new

administration. But over time

they're they're they're thinking we can

pick apart Iran in much the same way

that we picked apart Syria. I mean

is is that how how you're seeing it? It

doesn't look like they're they're

thinking about going for the quick

knockout anymore. Obviously they're not

going to get the quick knockout win

anymore, which is what Trump would have

preferred to have, a 2-3 day uh

uh strike on Iran, regime change, and

you get the the win like in Venezuela.

That's not going to happen. So

you move to the next scenario which is

to try and and just degrade them over

time.

>> The long siege, which is exactly what

the Iranians were afraid of and what the

the supreme leader who was killed,

Ayatollah Khamenei, warned against that

Iran needed to try and avoid a long

siege. And I think that is exactly the

strategy the Americans and the Israelis

are going to follow. The Americans in

particular are going to follow. It'll be

exactly as you say.

Um the Syrian

scenario worked in Syria.

But it need not have worked in Syria. Um

what made it possible in Syria was

certain very

unwise decisions

made by the Assad government, by Assad

himself,

and by some of his officials.

Iran is in a much much stronger country

than Syria ever was. And if the Iranians

use the time that they are given and

work efficiently

and successfully,

then they can defeat that, too.

But they need to work with their

friends. They can't afford to just try

and do everything by themselves because

a long siege is indeed going to put

enormous pressure on Iranian society.

>> Yeah. And if they make one mistake, one

misstep, and they're not working with

their partners, with BRICS, their

friends, their allies,

>> Yes. Yes.

>> then they then the US and Israel will

capitalize on it.

>> Absolutely.

>> Yeah. Just like they did in Syria.

Correct. And Assad made some some

critical mistakes. Yeah.

>> Exactly.

>> And they capitalized on it. All right.

We'll end the video there. The Duran

locals.com. We're on next one Rumble.

We're on Telegram. Go to the Duran shop,

pick up some merch. Also check us out on

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box down below. Take care.

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