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Joe Rogan Experience #2525 - Nick Bostrom

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Joe Rogan Experience #2525 - Nick Bostrom

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3722 segments

0:01

Joe Rogan podcast. Check it out.

0:03

>> The Joe Rogan Experience.

0:06

>> TRAIN BY DAY. JOE ROGAN PODCAST BY

0:08

NIGHT. All day.

0:12

>> It's great to see you again.

0:14

>> Yeah, good to see you.

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So, um, since the last time we talked,

0:19

we we spent a lot of time where you were

0:21

trying to explain to me simulation

0:23

theory and why the probability of

0:26

simulation theory is uh more likely than

0:29

it not being a simulation.

0:32

>> Um, yeah, it was what, five years ago or

0:34

something?

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>> I think it was six or six somewhere

0:36

along those lines.

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>> I mean, a lot of things happened in the

0:39

world since then.

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>> Yes. Yes. A lot of things. I mean, um,

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for example, back then, I think we did

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we even talk about AI.

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>> It probably came up a bit, but it

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>> wasn't it wasn't this thing looming over

0:54

civilization, which is really kind of

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fascinating when you think about the

0:57

fact that it's only been six years. And

0:59

in six years, like what a a massive jump

1:02

in some new technology in our life. Like

1:06

>> just sort of like the internet where it

1:08

like crept up on us. we just accepted

1:10

that it's a thing but that the this this

1:13

thing has gotten massively entangled in

1:18

every aspect of society in every aspect

1:20

of people's lives in a very short period

1:23

of time.

1:24

>> Yeah. I mean things are like so much is

1:26

happening now that it's kind of a

1:28

full-time job just to monitor the

1:30

situation.

1:31

>> Yeah. Um,

1:33

>> and well, you're one of the things that

1:36

you're talking about is the positive

1:37

aspects of it, right? You're talking

1:39

about like that this is probably going

1:41

to be a net good for humanity to

1:45

>> hopefully. Um, I mean, I think I I take

1:47

both cases seriously, the sort of the

1:51

risk side and and the big unlock. Uh, if

1:54

we get things right, um,

1:56

>> I feel like we have the potential, like

1:59

we're on a whitewater raft. We have the

2:00

potential to get to our destination,

2:03

but we also have the potential to flip

2:05

over and try to figure out how to get to

2:07

shore in freezing cold water and sort of

2:10

rebuild.

2:10

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That seems about

2:13

right. Yeah. And uh Yeah. And it seems

2:15

like it's kind of speeding up a bit as

2:18

well, right? If you're sort of Yeah.

2:20

>> In this field, there's like every few

2:22

weeks there's a new model being released

2:24

or something. I

2:25

>> Yes. I guess it's like if you imagine I

2:28

guess commentating some fight, right?

2:30

And that's been recorded and you're

2:31

supposed to do the voice over and the

2:33

first round is like normal speed and

2:35

then the second round is 2x and then the

2:38

third one 4x and it's just like a wor of

2:40

legs and arms and that's a great way to

2:44

describe it. Yeah, it's it's just so

2:47

strange how quickly it snuck up on us

2:50

and that there's there's two narratives

2:52

that we hear. Uh, one the one narrative

2:54

is we're in real trouble and that this

2:56

thing is going to take over every aspect

2:58

of society and it's essentially going to

3:00

be a superior life force, a superior

3:03

intellect that exists amongst us that we

3:06

created and we don't think that's wise.

3:08

And then there's the other side that is

3:11

saying things like what Elon says where

3:13

he's saying we're we're going to have

3:15

universal high income. It's going to be

3:17

so much prosperity that no one's ever

3:19

going to have to toil again. There'll be

3:20

no more third world countries. There'll

3:22

be no more no more poverty. Like we can

3:25

eradicate poverty with the resources

3:26

that we have on earth and we can change

3:29

what it means to have to work like you

3:32

just to provide yourself with food and

3:35

housing. That's all going to be easy and

3:36

free. And then everything else is going

3:38

to be you have to find a purpose in your

3:40

life.

3:40

>> Yeah.

3:41

>> My problem is and I love Elon but the

3:44

people who have that perspective are all

3:46

making money off AI.

3:48

>> They all they are all invested like

3:51

heavily. Mark Andre, all these people

3:53

that have this rosy view of it, they're

3:56

all um invested heavily into it. So when

3:59

someone like you who's not necessarily

4:02

in that camp, you know, that is more of

4:04

a an a true objective analyst of what's

4:08

going on, when you have a positive

4:10

aspect or a positive viewpoint of it, I

4:13

uh get a little more excited.

4:14

>> Yeah. Well, I mean, the truth is we

4:16

don't know, right, how it will pan out.

4:18

Um so um I mean I think there are these

4:23

scenarios where we unlock this you know

4:26

enormous boost both to economic

4:29

productivity but then you know across

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medicine, entertainment, environment,

4:34

you know travel, all kinds of things and

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like a tsunami of wealth just kind of

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flows through and lifts all boats. Um

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and then the idea of human work becomes

4:44

an anacronism and uh where where you

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have machines that can do everything

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that we can do physically and mentally

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and do it much better and cheaper. Um

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and so I think in those scenarios where

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this really works it the transformation

4:59

is a lot deeper. I mean so that kind of

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layers to the onion. So like the most

5:03

superficial level is well they automate

5:05

your job. So what are people going to

5:08

what are they going to do? Where are

5:09

they going to work? Yeah. Well, well,

5:10

that that comes a little bit deeper.

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First, like the most superficial level

5:13

is people just wonder where will I get

5:14

the job if the robot replaces me.

5:17

>> And then the superficial level of that

5:18

conversation, I think, is well, you need

5:20

to retrain workers so they can work in

5:22

other fields. And maybe there needs to

5:24

be, I don't know, employment, insurance

5:26

whilst they are being retrained or

5:27

something like that. Um but but once you

5:30

think through where this ultimately

5:31

leads it's you think like it's not just

5:32

a few jobs I think but it's really

5:35

everything that that humans can do to um

5:38

a good approximation um with maybe the

5:41

exception being where

5:43

the consumer has a direct preference

5:45

that the particular product or service

5:48

be done by a human like priest,

5:51

prostitute and politician.

5:53

>> Um

5:56

>> those might survive. Uh

5:57

>> well politician hopefully not hopefully

6:00

AI can handle that all without any

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corruption.

6:02

>> Yeah. But somebody's got to take credit

6:04

for it.

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>> This is true. And code it. Yeah. It's um

6:09

>> um and so then then you get to these uh

6:12

like more profound questions I think

6:14

about meaning and purpose and like what

6:16

does a human life look like

6:18

>> right

6:18

>> at technological maturity

6:21

>> right? Uh also what is experience? Is

6:24

does experience have to be um

6:26

measurable? Like can do you have to

6:29

touch it? Do you have to measure it and

6:30

weigh it? Or is uh virtual experience

6:34

still experience? Like if you have a

6:36

very full and enjoyable and fulfilling

6:40

virtual life, is that enough?

6:42

>> You know what I mean? Like do do you

6:44

have to do everything in the material

6:46

world or can you find happiness

6:52

in a virtual world world that doesn't

6:55

currently exist but we could clearly see

6:57

the technology if it expands it's going

7:00

to there's going to be the possibility

7:03

of experiencing a matrix type reality.

7:07

Yeah, I I I think I see where you're

7:09

going. But yeah, I mean I think like

7:11

different strokes for different folks.

7:12

If you imagine um a world where

7:15

presumably these virtual worlds will be

7:17

very rich

7:19

>> uh and deep and fascinating, but some

7:21

people might just like the idea of you

7:23

know climbing the real Mount Everest

7:25

rather than you know being in

7:26

>> most certainly but however there there

7:29

could come a time where people are

7:33

locked out of regular reality like this

7:35

is worst case scenario with AI is that

7:39

you you you have your needs taken care

7:41

of but there is no purpose.

7:43

There's nothing to do. There's nothing

7:45

to do because AI is taking care of all

7:47

aspects of society other than

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recreation. There's nothing to do. And

7:51

then this one recreation comes along

7:53

that's not reality, but it's way more

7:55

fulfilling and exciting than any other

7:57

aspect of reality.

7:59

>> And you know, an example of that would

8:01

just be in a very minor way,

8:05

your phone provides you with that sort

8:06

of an escape and it's not even that

8:08

thrilling and yet it's massively

8:10

addicting.

8:12

your phone. People are on their phones

8:13

six hours a day.

8:15

>> If you if we come up with a virtual

8:18

reality that's way more exciting than

8:20

regular reality,

8:21

>> everyone's going to hop on in.

8:24

>> Yeah. I mean, I think to some extent

8:27

this uh will maybe be the case whether

8:30

you go the virtual path or the physical

8:32

path. I mean, you could imagine a future

8:33

where there are like resorts and people

8:35

are sort of lying in beach chairs

8:37

sipping drinks all day long and like

8:39

that's also a kind of checking out,

8:41

right? Yeah. Well, that yeah, that's not

8:43

fulfilling. You know, the what the thing

8:46

about a virtual reality is you don't

8:49

have to even live within our physics. I

8:52

mean, you can fly, you can do anything.

8:54

>> It's a larger space of possibilities.

8:55

But either way, it could be like a

8:57

passive existence in physical reality

8:59

where you're like launching at the beach

9:00

or climbing mountains or in video games.

9:03

Like you could have like a really

9:04

intense every straining every fiber to

9:06

try to succeed in this virtual

9:08

environment or like one where you're

9:09

just kind of floating on some cloud in a

9:12

drug-like state.

9:13

>> But I don't think people are going to be

9:14

interested in that because just the way

9:16

the human mind works like what kind of

9:19

video games are people attracted to?

9:20

It's because a video game is essentially

9:22

a prox it's an approximation of that.

9:25

You're just watching it on a screen but

9:27

you're sort of forgetting the fact that

9:28

you're watching on a screen. and you're

9:30

just concentrating on this 3D reality

9:32

that you're running through with a

9:33

machine gun or whatever you're doing,

9:35

right? That's what people are interested

9:36

in. They're not interested in these

9:38

games where you just like float over the

9:39

earth and like fly and and and just eat

9:43

bananas. No, they're they're interested

9:45

in thrilling things. And if that gets

9:48

provided in a virtual way, the amount of

9:51

people that are going to just say this

9:53

is better than regular boring life or

9:56

we're a slave to a computer.

9:59

>> Yeah. Yeah, I mean there are there are

10:00

both kind.

10:01

>> Okay, we're back. Uh where were we?

10:04

>> Um oh yeah, I was just saying that there

10:06

are also these computer games that like

10:09

provide a more passive experience where

10:11

you're like not really doing much and

10:12

it's more kind of zoning out.

10:14

>> But most people aren't interested in

10:15

those. Most people are interested in

10:17

Call of Duty. They're interested in

10:19

these wild firstperson shooters where

10:21

you're running down hallways and

10:23

everything's exciting and thrill orient

10:24

some sci-fi game or, you know,

10:27

>> Halflife, something like that. That's

10:29

what people are interested in.

10:30

>> Yeah. Well, I mean, I I think there are

10:32

like some some personality differences

10:35

in what path you would take there. But

10:37

either way, I think a lot of the choices

10:39

that people would make currently

10:42

depend on what they are sort of designed

10:45

to respond to by feeling good about it.

10:47

So like if you enjoy one thing you

10:49

choose that if you enjoy another that in

10:51

this condition of technological maturity

10:54

if we imagine sort of a future

10:56

civilization that has developed all

10:59

possible technologies to their maximum.

11:01

>> Yeah.

11:02

>> Um then amongst the affordances amongst

11:05

the things they could do is like they

11:07

wouldn't just have control over the

11:09

external environment um things around

11:12

them but but also their own biology and

11:14

brains. So if you were one of these

11:17

people and like maybe right now the only

11:20

way you get enjoyment is by you know

11:21

getting like crazy drunk or doing sort

11:23

of things you don't really approve of

11:25

maybe but that's that's actually what

11:27

sort of um uh lights your fire. Like you

11:31

could imagine redesigning yourself to

11:33

take the same kind of pleasure but in

11:35

some kind of contemplating the beauty of

11:37

the universe or like appreciating the

11:40

goodness in the heart of others or like

11:42

some some more sort of noble aspiration

11:46

um like solving abstract mathematics

11:48

rather than you know playing first

11:49

person shooters. You would have a choice

11:51

like whether you would get your

11:53

>> your thrills from from one kind of

11:55

activity or the other.

11:57

>> Yeah. Which brings us to the question

11:58

like what does it mean to be human? Like

12:00

for people finding beauty and joy in you

12:05

know interesting and fascinating things

12:08

and you know how to be a better person

12:11

and all all all the different aspects of

12:14

human life that we think about when we

12:16

think about people. We think about noble

12:18

aspects of humanity. But doesn't that

12:21

have to exist in conjunction with the

12:24

worst aspects of society for us to

12:26

appreciate it? It seems like this is a

12:28

part of the human condition is that we

12:30

have to have crime so that we can

12:33

appreciate peace. We have to have war so

12:35

we could appreciate peace. We have to

12:37

have hate so we could appreciate love.

12:39

And we're never without one or the

12:41

other. They're always both together in

12:43

constant conflict. And we're always noly

12:46

hoping that the good wins out over the

12:49

bad. And this is part of the struggle of

12:51

being a human being. And if we just

12:53

completely eliminate that struggle,

12:56

we're going to have to find some we're

12:58

going to have we're have we're going to

12:59

have to be a different thing because

13:01

what we are is this very strange

13:04

territorial primate and who's endlessly

13:07

curious. And this territorial primate is

13:11

moving in a certain direction. And that

13:14

direction seems to be a better society.

13:17

Seems to be over time. If you look at

13:19

statistics from thousands of years ago

13:21

to today, there's less violence. There's

13:24

better medicine. There's better

13:26

education. It's moving in a better and

13:27

better and better direction. But it's in

13:29

a struggle. That's part of why it moves.

13:32

If all of a sudden there's no struggle

13:34

and everyone is this wonderful

13:36

enlightened being, like what are we?

13:38

Because we're going to be a different

13:40

thing than what we are right now. And if

13:42

you love music and if you love art and

13:45

if you love me, you know, novels and all

13:48

these different things that come out of

13:49

the human condition. Well, what what

13:51

those things come out of struggle. Those

13:53

things come out of confusion and pain

13:55

and heartbreak and and love and joy and

13:58

all that stuff all piled up together.

14:01

without that like what are we? And so if

14:04

we are moving in this direction

14:06

technologically and we're not moving as

14:09

fast biologically

14:12

do we merge because that seems to be

14:15

what I think. I think that if this thing

14:18

goes the way it continues to go the

14:21

bottleneck is going to be human biology.

14:24

>> Yeah. Yeah. there there is a kind of

14:25

paradox

14:27

embedded in in our efforts to make

14:30

progress. So like there are all these

14:32

kind of scientists and people working to

14:34

develop better technologies and

14:35

throughout the economy you know you in

14:37

some company maybe you try to figure out

14:39

how to make some process a little bit

14:40

more efficient so you can serve

14:42

customers better and all of this is

14:44

designed to solve problems right to like

14:46

if if you sort of extrapolate that to

14:49

its logical end point right you would

14:52

imagine we would have perfect technology

14:54

that can do everything solve all the

14:56

problems like presumably with AI and

14:58

automation

14:59

>> right

15:00

>> um but then you end up in this condition

15:02

where there is kind of nothing left for

15:04

us to do. You might think and so

15:06

although it looks like we have these

15:08

strong reasons to push forward in this

15:10

direction. If you actually look at the

15:12

end point if we succeeded

15:14

to many people it will look kind of

15:16

unpalatable and like this kind of future

15:18

where you know all the problems are

15:19

solved and um nevertheless that that

15:23

does seem to be you know the direction

15:26

that we are headed in probably the

15:27

direction that we should be headed in.

15:29

>> Yeah. Wouldn't that be a better goal if

15:31

there was zero murder, zero violence,

15:35

zero crime, zero lying, zero corruption,

15:39

>> and human beings all worked in

15:42

coordination with each other?

15:44

>> Just like in a a sense of unique sinking

15:47

and harmony,

15:48

>> right?

15:48

>> That would be way better.

15:50

>> Um I I think but but it does like if you

15:53

actually stare at that situation, it

15:55

does have these slightly unpalatable

15:58

>> Yeah. quality because you might think it

16:00

looks kind of bland then, right? If it's

16:02

>> not necessarily though, it's just it

16:04

looks bland if you think about what

16:07

we're experiencing now like all the the

16:09

excitement and the weirdness of

16:11

uncertainty and of not knowing, you

16:14

know, and and also the negative aspects

16:16

of our life in conjunction with the

16:18

positive aspects of our life. So, we

16:20

contrast the two of them and you really

16:22

appreciate good people after you're

16:23

around a bunch of You

16:25

know, if that doesn't but doesn't have

16:27

to be that way. This is just what we are

16:30

dealing with. This is my position on

16:31

work, too. Because everybody in their

16:34

head is like, "What happens when AI

16:36

takes all the jobs?"

16:38

>> And I'm like, "Do you have to have a

16:40

job? Isn't that a human

16:42

invention? Like, why do you have to have

16:45

a job? That seems crazy that our main

16:47

focus is on housing and food

16:51

>> and like most people are basically just

16:54

working for that. Most people that are

16:56

most people that are struggling check to

16:58

check basically housing and food is

17:01

their daily labor. If that's removed,

17:04

>> wouldn't enough people figure out what

17:07

to do with their time?

17:08

>> Yeah. Yeah. I I I think so that like

17:11

yeah, there will be some transition and

17:13

discomfort in change ultimately that is

17:16

like Yeah. I I I mean I think it's like

17:18

so slavery is really bad, right? Like

17:20

but wage labor is a sort of you know

17:23

slavery light in a sense. you have to

17:24

sell a third of your working day

17:27

>> um just to get money to to pay for

17:30

necessities.

17:31

>> And the people that are trying to make

17:32

the most money make the conditions for

17:34

their employees as shitty as possible

17:36

because it costs the least amount.

17:39

>> They don't think about it like listen

17:42

maybe we make less money but we have an

17:44

awesome experience for everybody that

17:46

works there. Nobody thinks like that.

17:47

They all think like we have to make the

17:48

most money because we have shareholders

17:50

and we have a responsibility and these

17:52

people need to make more money every

17:53

quarter. So yeah, although sometimes you

17:54

do this, you compete for talent like

17:56

>> that's true too. But now but only the

17:58

top talent. That's why the CEOs get all

18:00

the bread and all the people on the

18:02

assembly line.

18:03

>> Some employees get treated well, right?

18:04

What would you say? I mean

18:06

>> Jamie is a different kind of employee.

18:07

Jamie is literally the co

18:10

>> Exactly.

18:10

>> I mean he's the co-person on the show.

18:13

>> Yeah,

18:13

>> that's different. But if you know some

18:15

dude who's out there, you know, stocking

18:18

boxes for Amazon, that's different than

18:20

being the CEO.

18:21

>> Yeah. So I mean I think like ultimately

18:23

that would be a huge liberation and and

18:25

kind of restore dignity like you should

18:27

be in control of your own time. It's

18:29

kind of almost the most like aside from

18:32

your own body like your own time your

18:33

own attention

18:35

>> and we have to teach people discipline.

18:36

They have to that's the thing is like if

18:38

you give people the opportunity to just

18:40

do nothing we we do you know we're

18:43

primates we we'll find a way to re

18:45

there's we're genetically sort of

18:47

designed to conserve resources. You

18:49

don't want to overuse resources for no

18:51

reason, do a bunch of because you

18:53

won't survive. You don't have enough

18:54

food. So, we're sort of designed to like

18:56

know how to be lazy. And so, we're going

18:58

to have to find things that give us

19:00

purpose or or we'll get depressed. This

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features and network management details.

19:58

>> Yeah. I mean, so it used to be the

20:00

traditional idea like of British

20:02

aristocracy like that you wouldn't have

20:04

to work for a living. It was kind of an

20:06

unfortunate necessity for many people

20:08

that they had to work for their daily

20:10

bread, right? But the ideal way of being

20:12

human was that you just had money and

20:15

then you spent your time doing other

20:16

things like you know maybe you were

20:18

involved in politics or maybe you had

20:20

like an art collection or you did your

20:23

gardening or entertain friends.

20:25

>> That's the best aspect of it. So but

20:26

when you think about British

20:27

aristocracy, don't you think about

20:29

fuckups? I do. I think about guys that

20:32

are just drunk. They drive their Ferrari

20:34

into a lake and they accidentally drown

20:36

their friend and then they pay off the

20:38

cops and they get away with it. There's

20:40

that's what I think of when I think of

20:41

>> Yeah, there's that. But there were also

20:43

these kind of I don't know amateur

20:44

scientists or eccentrics who had their

20:46

weird thing and it kind of added to um

20:48

so I guess it brings out like the more

20:50

freedom somebody has the more they can

20:52

reveal their true nature like um

20:54

>> well it also depends on how they're

20:55

raised right who who are their parents

20:59

what what values did they instill in

21:01

them when they were young did they

21:03

explain the value of hard work that it's

21:05

actually good for you and then if you

21:07

just find something you really want to

21:08

do and you concentrate on it and you

21:10

really work hard at it it's actually

21:11

very fulfilling.

21:13

>> Yeah. So you could imagine for example

21:15

the education system in in this world

21:16

where we no longer need to work like

21:18

>> right

21:19

>> presumably would need to be redesigned

21:21

from from from scratch basically because

21:24

right now it's a kind of machine right.

21:26

So you take children coming in kind of

21:28

on a conveyor belt.

21:29

>> Yeah.

21:29

>> And then some processing is done like

21:32

sit at your desk here is this assignment

21:33

here's a grid and then they come out

21:35

with a quality label attached.

21:37

>> Yeah.

21:37

>> Right. And then they are meant to be

21:39

productive workers that you could put in

21:40

an office and they will um so so this it

21:44

kind of is an unfortunate

21:47

fact about the current condition that I

21:48

mean the world needs a lot of these

21:50

office workers that can do all these

21:51

tasks in the economy so like it's we

21:53

have to have

21:54

>> until it doesn't

21:55

>> until it doesn't and at that point it

21:56

would be absurd to keep doing this right

21:58

then you could imagine changing

22:00

education so that it would be

22:02

>> uh much more about like how how can you

22:06

learn to uh live well a life of leisure

22:10

like you imagine

22:11

>> you're right stay

22:13

>> cultivating like you know the art of

22:15

conversation appreciation for art and

22:17

music

22:18

>> hobbies physical wellness like nature

22:22

>> um the ability to set your own goals and

22:24

take your own initiatives to

22:27

>> um you know to develop true friendships

22:29

with people like these are things are

22:31

not taught in school but you could

22:32

imagine that being the curriculum like

22:34

spirituality like all kinds of

22:36

>> sure things that would then equip people

22:38

to sort of use their freedom, their

22:41

wealth, uh their free time for uh you

22:45

know some kind of you know actually um

22:48

meaningful and beautiful activities

22:50

>> for sure. For for sure preemptively we

22:52

should be kind of teaching people like

22:54

that now. Like if young people are

22:56

coming up now, the world that they're if

22:58

you're in first grade right now, 12

23:02

years from now when you're graduating

23:03

from high school, like the world is a

23:05

totally different place. And this idea

23:07

that being a productive worker who can

23:09

sit still for eight hours a day is

23:11

that's the the best way we should teach

23:13

kids. That seems crazy if we're really

23:16

like seeing the world that you're

23:18

describing and that most people seem to

23:20

think is oncoming.

23:21

>> Yeah. Yeah. I guess the the timeline is

23:24

still a little bit uncertain. So you

23:26

don't end up in a situation, right,

23:27

where you sort of now you find yourself

23:29

you're 20 years old, it's time to go out

23:31

in the world. You have no skills. The AI

23:33

revolution hasn't yet quite happened.

23:35

It's kind of

23:36

>> Isn't that a liberal arts degree anyway?

23:37

>> Yeah. And and how is that going?

23:39

>> There's a lot of silly degrees that

23:41

people get right now that are useless

23:43

anyway. And they spend a tremendous

23:45

amount of time working on getting it and

23:48

then when they get out there's no jobs

23:50

for that degree. Yeah. So, so they were

23:53

a little bit too early maybe in hopping

23:54

on this

23:55

>> maybe or you know there's also traps

23:58

there there's there's things that you

24:00

can get really excited about and do like

24:02

if you want to play professional bowling

24:04

you want to bowl professionally like

24:06

well the amount of money you're going to

24:07

make is very limited because the best

24:09

bowler in the world like what is the

24:10

best professional bowler in the world

24:13

make?

24:14

>> Let's guess. I say $100,000

24:19

professional bowlers. We used to knew

24:21

know a guy Ari's friends with a guy uh

24:23

Tommy God I can't remember his last

24:25

name. Do you remember his last name

24:26

Jamie?

24:27

>> He was a professional bowler but he used

24:29

to come to the comedy store and hang

24:30

out. Really nice guy and love comedy.

24:32

And

24:33

>> I imagine like maybe the very best one

24:35

makes a pretty decent living and then

24:37

like the third best like it's just

24:38

>> I bet barely barely.

24:40

>> I bet the best guy probably makes maybe

24:41

100 grand or 200 grand at the most. And

24:44

that means like the 30th guy in the

24:47

world is

24:48

>> Yeah. There you have to have another job

24:50

to pursue that.

24:51

>> Well, but then in in this

24:53

>> what does he make?

24:54

>> Oh,

24:54

>> 200k. Oh, 400k in big season. 450

24:58

including prize money and sponsorships.

25:01

>> But then like what does

25:02

>> EJ Tucket made $43? yeah. EJ EJ

25:06

Tacket made uh $437,540

25:10

for the 2025 season with several others

25:12

between $190K and 270K in prize money

25:16

alone. Top tier. So the top tier guys

25:20

make a good living.

25:21

>> But how many guys are there? You you

25:23

know what I'm saying? Uh it's probably

25:24

like a very thin sort of peak and

25:26

>> so if you choose to go into bowling it's

25:28

not like choosing to go into you know

25:31

there's a lot of other jobs like even if

25:33

you want to be a basketball player

25:35

they're they're making a lot of money

25:36

you know if you're a really good

25:37

basketball player and you pursue that

25:39

like you could get very very rich but

25:41

how many of them get rich

25:42

>> most don't yeah but then like so maybe

25:44

maybe the the money factor would kind of

25:46

drop out of the picture

25:48

>> and it would just be what you're

25:49

interested in and then maybe even it

25:51

would

25:52

>> I mean

25:54

are endless and what other people are

25:55

interested in to some extent because

25:56

like I think part of what people are

25:58

competing for is also prestige and

26:00

status and

26:01

>> that would be a thing right like status

26:02

would be more important it's like who's

26:04

the best at this thing like like a bunch

26:07

of friends who play golf like Jamie

26:09

plays golf all the time golfers are all

26:11

like comparing each other's scores and

26:12

they're all they're playing they're

26:14

competing in this game instead and that

26:16

they think about that more than they

26:18

think about work

26:19

>> like people who love golf they

26:20

hate work like I used to say that about

26:23

uh comedy. Back when uh I first started,

26:25

one of the things that I noticed is the

26:26

guys who really got into golf, their

26:28

careers kind of stalled cuz they were

26:31

more excited about playing golf than

26:33

they were about writing jokes and going

26:35

on the road. And I was like, okay. So,

26:37

if the average person doesn't need food

26:40

and housing anymore from labor, if

26:42

that's gone and now you just get it. And

26:44

so now you could just go do things. We

26:48

just have to teach people to be excited

26:49

about stuff. We have to teach people the

26:51

value of curiosity and finding things

26:54

that are interesting to you and then the

26:56

value of just education for the sake of

27:00

learning things because it's interesting

27:01

just just pure satisfaction of curiosity

27:05

which is a beautiful thing. Like that

27:07

would be great for everybody if we

27:09

instead of learning things because your

27:12

teacher tells you you have to learn it.

27:13

Well, there's always going to be people

27:14

that just naturally gravitate towards

27:16

mathematics and they're really

27:17

fascinated by mathematics and there's

27:19

always going to be people that are just

27:20

naturally gravitating towards history.

27:22

They're like, "How did we get here? What

27:24

is this? How did this start? Who wrote

27:25

that? Who's the first guy to figure that

27:27

out?" And that that's you're going to

27:30

naturally go towards that and just be

27:33

educated for the sake of satisfying your

27:35

curiosity. And maybe we'll have a more

27:37

balanced society because people will

27:39

actually be able to just pursue their

27:41

interests. But we have to teach them to

27:43

do it. That's what I think is going to

27:45

be really important about young people

27:47

in the future. Teach them to actually

27:50

pursue their curiosity rather than just

27:54

squash any desires they have for novelty

27:57

and for interesting things and just be

27:59

able to work all day doing something you

28:01

hate because that's what it means to be

28:03

an adult.

28:04

>> Yeah. I think like cultivating that

28:06

would be like

28:08

the way forward in in this case, right?

28:10

>> And seems very possible. It's doable.

28:13

Like we know curious people and we Yeah.

28:16

>> And at least to some extent. Now I think

28:17

there's probably also some differences

28:19

in how different folks are wired. Like

28:21

some people get bored very easily.

28:22

Others find everything fascinating.

28:24

>> Some people are like just naturally

28:26

depressed or have low mood. Others are

28:28

sort of evolving.

28:29

>> Yeah. But those people that are

28:30

naturally depressed, how much would

28:31

their life change if they were coached

28:33

at a very early age the value of

28:35

exercise? And if they started running,

28:38

if they started doing yoga and they

28:39

started feeling much better and they

28:41

weren't naturally depressed anymore, and

28:42

then you changed their diet and you

28:44

start adding in vitamins and nutrients

28:46

and stop giving them processed foods and

28:48

all a sudden they feel better because

28:50

the concept even of depression, like

28:52

what does that mean?

28:54

>> Well, it it varies so wildly. And when

28:57

you're talking about people that aren't

28:58

taking care of their bodies and that's

29:00

not thought of as a primary factor in

29:03

why depression exists in the first

29:05

place, well, this is a very unscientific

29:07

approach then because we know that it

29:08

has a profound impact on human beings.

29:11

So we're pretending that there's like

29:12

this oneizefititall.

29:14

No, I think that should be also a part

29:16

of teaching people how to be a human

29:18

being. chase your curiosities, but also

29:21

this is why you're not feeling well and

29:23

that if you just develop this ability to

29:25

get some momentum going and just show up

29:27

at that yoga class every day, you'll

29:29

feel way better

29:31

>> and you don't have to take a pill.

29:33

>> Yeah. And I'm I think yeah uh many could

29:37

be a lot improved if they were taught to

29:39

sort of take care of their basic

29:41

physiology and

29:42

>> everyone can be improved. 100% of them

29:44

can be improved. It's a part of being a

29:46

human being.

29:46

>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean I don't know. I think

29:48

there is also some people who might just

29:50

have you know some you know imbalance of

29:52

some neurotransmitter because of some

29:54

genetic

29:55

>> 100% or maybe they don't even have the

29:57

energy to engage in these activities

29:59

that would make them feel better but

30:00

then I think there would be much better

30:02

medicines for uh helping

30:04

>> that's where aderall comes in let's go

30:07

give them some aderall

30:08

>> well get them fired up

30:11

>> get them to start running I'm kidding

30:13

but but what we're saying is all doable

30:16

we're not asking people to breathe

30:17

underwater, right? Where you're we're

30:19

saying is that there are people on Earth

30:23

that live like that. And this idea that

30:26

living just for a paycheck so that you

30:29

can cover your food and your housing,

30:31

which we've always thought of as being a

30:34

just an undeniable part of being a

30:36

person, an adult. This is what you have

30:38

to do. You have to pay for your food,

30:39

pay for your housing. But if we we do

30:41

get to a point where the structure of

30:44

society is now run by hyper inelligent

30:47

artificial intelligence,

30:50

you would wouldn't need most jobs that

30:52

people have to do that suck. And in

30:55

order to get our society to this point,

30:57

if you wanted an iPhone, you needed some

31:00

people that were at a factory somewhere

31:02

putting it all together. You needed

31:04

someone who's designing it. you needed

31:06

someone who's sitting there in the

31:09

office trying to figure out how to

31:10

market it. You needed all those jobs.

31:12

But when we don't need all those jobs

31:13

anymore, then things are going to be

31:14

very interesting. And that that's what

31:17

I'm saying. We need to become a

31:18

different thing. Like it's kind of true

31:20

and kind of not. Like you you can be a

31:23

human being and live in that world, but

31:26

we're going to have to re-educate people

31:28

how to be a human being. It's it's going

31:30

to this our our education system

31:33

specifically in this country is just

31:35

designed to make factory workers

31:37

specifically like there's a there's a

31:39

real history of it like we we know why

31:42

they made it this way. They made it this

31:43

way and they got people in really early

31:46

so they could get people set up for

31:47

jobs. They just want people to work.

31:49

>> Yeah. So, so we are kind of currently

31:52

ills suited for really um thriving in in

31:56

an environment of abundance and for

31:58

enjoying life because I mean both at

32:01

deep biological time scales and and

32:04

during the life span of a single

32:06

individual there are all these pressures

32:07

necessities that kind of force us to

32:10

become a certain types. I mean we talked

32:12

about the education system training

32:14

people to be the kind who can sit at the

32:16

desk all day long and perform tasks

32:17

right

32:18

>> biologically

32:20

um we've

32:21

evolved drives to you know be lazy to

32:24

conserve energy to eat as much as we can

32:26

and now in the modern environment where

32:28

there are fridges everywhere like it

32:30

causes problems metabolically.

32:33

Um and in terms of enjoying life for

32:37

many people there is this hyonic

32:38

treadmill right like so you achieve

32:41

something some improvement there's a

32:43

spike of happiness and then you sort of

32:46

go back to baseline very quickly you

32:47

start to take for granted all the

32:49

blessings of life which makes it very

32:51

difficult to actually achieve a state of

32:54

um permanent happiness and felicity and

32:59

but and and it's kind of been necessary

33:01

because we that that there needed to be

33:03

this motivation to keep striving for the

33:06

next thing. Now once you've actually

33:08

achieved all the things though then

33:09

maybe that becomes

33:11

kind of dysfunctional right like why

33:13

keep wanting to strive for the next

33:15

thing if all the things have already

33:17

been achieved at least in a certain

33:19

domain

33:20

>> and so I think as we move deeper into

33:23

this hypothesized future like where we

33:27

get all these magical technologies then

33:29

at some point probably some

33:31

transformation of of human nature uh

33:35

would have to go along with that First

33:36

maybe cultural changes to sort of equip

33:39

people for a life of leisure.

33:40

>> Yeah.

33:41

>> Uh and then ultimately maybe more

33:43

profound changes to to our very biology.

33:45

And so that imagine if you solve aging

33:47

and you can now live

33:49

>> for thousands of years, right? Like may

33:51

maybe the way our memory work is not

33:52

really set up for them. Maybe we would

33:54

just go stale after 200 years with our

33:56

current brains. Like we just get stuck

33:58

in a rot.

34:00

>> We don't know because we haven't lived

34:01

for 200 years. But that could easily

34:03

turn out to be the case with a human. So

34:04

then maybe at that point you would need

34:06

to sort of do something to sort of add

34:08

more um cognitive resources, more

34:11

flexibility, do some sort of psychedelic

34:13

reset or something to sort of keep the

34:16

the flexibility going for, you know,

34:18

longer periods of time. I I'm glad you

34:20

said a psychedelic reset because it'd be

34:22

very funny if the main tools that we

34:25

have for navigating this are all illegal

34:28

because I I think they might be and

34:31

specifically with psilocybin and DMT and

34:34

and probably Iane as well. Like if we

34:37

wanted chemical tools to navigate a new

34:40

reality, those are probably the best

34:42

ones that we have available and they're

34:44

all illegal. And I think you're right. I

34:47

think if we're going to be able to

34:49

navigate this correctly, we have to kind

34:50

of change the way we uh interact with

34:53

each other, what it means to be a

34:55

person. But I I wonder how much of the

34:57

conflict that we have is a direct result

35:00

of this inherent struggle that so many

35:02

people have. And I mean, there's a

35:05

direct correlation between extreme

35:07

poverty and extreme crime. You know,

35:09

specifically in this country, if you

35:10

look at the areas of extreme poverty in

35:12

this country, they're also the areas

35:14

with extreme crime. And um I wonder how

35:17

much of that would be completely

35:19

alleviated with a complete lack of

35:21

poverty. You know, we've always assumed

35:23

that if you're going to have uh a a

35:29

functioning society that you're going to

35:30

have slums. Why? Like why? That they

35:34

don't they don't serve any function.

35:36

It's not a good thing. Well, well, it's

35:37

because some people are always going to

35:39

be making bad decisions and some people

35:41

are always going to be going down the

35:43

wrong road and crime and this and that,

35:45

right? But there's still just humans and

35:48

some humans don't do that. So, wouldn't

35:50

it be better to figure out a way to not

35:51

have humans ever do that anymore? And it

35:53

seems like a way to there seems like a

35:55

way to do that. It's again not asking

35:57

people to breathe underwater. We're just

35:59

we're trying to figure out why does some

36:01

people never engage in crime. Why do

36:03

some people live these really fulfilling

36:06

and interesting lives? Well, probably

36:08

because they were exposed to it when

36:09

they were really young. Probably because

36:10

they weren't exposed to like very bad

36:12

environments and very bad crime and very

36:15

bad poverty. And how much of that would

36:17

change if there was no more poverty? It

36:20

sounds like such a little fairy tale

36:22

childlike, oh, one day we'll have no

36:25

poverty, but that's doable. If everyone

36:28

is alive, right? Okay. That that's alive

36:30

right now is not starving to death. That

36:33

means we figured out a way to at least

36:35

the very least get you resources so you

36:37

could feed yourself, right? That this no

36:40

matter how dysfunctional things are, all

36:43

it has to do is get ramped up a few

36:45

steps.

36:45

>> I am.

36:46

>> And now you have no one ever worried

36:48

about being fed, no one ever worrying

36:50

about not having a place to sleep. And

36:52

then you have to find purpose. But it

36:55

seems like there's a lot of people that

36:57

find purpose without having a a

37:00

financial price tag attached to it. just

37:02

by what we're talking about with golf or

37:04

you could be like really into writing

37:06

books. You could write books all day

37:08

long and people are always going to want

37:10

human created fiction. People are always

37:12

going to be interested in the way other

37:13

people think about things. You you'll

37:16

find you there's plenty of things to do.

37:18

There's plenty of games to play and

37:20

plenty of skills to learn. The idea that

37:23

the only reason why we work is to eat

37:26

and to not get rained on seems nuts. Um

37:30

yeah I I it is I guess to some extent an

37:33

open question to what extent people will

37:35

always want um to read human fiction or

37:39

to

37:40

prefer the human generated outputs. It

37:44

might be just because current AI

37:47

generated writing is kind of lacking in

37:49

various ways. It's often slo and boring.

37:52

But if if it became really good

37:54

>> Yeah. Then um you know maybe it would

37:58

just be like much more fun to to like

38:00

like if a movie made by an AI might just

38:03

be so much better and richer and the

38:04

lighting is perfect and the dialogue is

38:06

sharp and it's more funny and deep and

38:08

>> certainly touches it. Then you go and

38:10

watch this

38:11

>> human produced thing and it's going like

38:13

like most people don't go and watch sort

38:15

of film school students productions

38:17

>> right but then there's that like that

38:19

movie obsession. Wasn't that movie made

38:21

like very uh inexpensively?

38:23

>> And it's a huge hit, right?

38:25

>> And that's part of the thrill of it is

38:27

that this guy who was like a YouTuber,

38:29

right,

38:30

>> who created this film and now this movie

38:33

is a giant hit and everybody's like

38:35

super excited about it. Now that same

38:37

movie was made by AI. I wonder if it

38:39

would have that impact because it

38:41

doesn't have the human connection. So

38:43

that so that's possible that that we

38:45

keep getting interested in these things

38:48

because we sort of are really entangled

38:51

with with the human world much more than

38:54

than we are with the world of AIs. And I

38:56

mean for the same reason you might be

38:58

more interested in if if like your

39:00

brother or friend did something you

39:02

might think ah this is interesting I

39:03

want to check that out. Of course it was

39:05

some random dude who made something

39:06

slightly better. It's like doesn't mean

39:08

>> right when you go to see your nephew

39:10

play baseball, you wouldn't really go

39:12

see little kids baseball.

39:13

>> No, no, just randomly, right?

39:15

>> When your nephew gets on first base like

39:17

way to go, Bobby.

39:18

>> So, I think these kind of um social

39:21

entanglements that we have like will be

39:23

a big part of what gives u structure.

39:27

>> Yes.

39:27

>> Um to to lives in this condition where

39:30

where like the external constraints are

39:32

removed. I think that there is a great

39:35

value for the human mind for whatever

39:37

reason in getting better at things and

39:39

learning things. And I think that if we

39:42

could instill that in people at a young

39:44

age, I think it would be fairly easy to

39:48

get people to pursue that path. But we

39:51

have to completely revamp our education

39:53

system, which should have been done a

39:55

long time ago anyway. The idea of having

39:57

unenthusiastic, un under underpaid

39:59

people

40:01

being any percentage of what children

40:03

encounter for most of the day when

40:05

they're in their most formative period

40:07

is insane.

40:08

>> It should be a a rich, exciting,

40:11

enthusiastic journey and how to be a

40:14

better person and how it's exciting to

40:16

learn things and how it's exciting to

40:18

get better at things and about how

40:20

anybody can get better at things.

40:21

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I I hate

40:22

that every day of school. I remember

40:24

>> I hated it. Hate it. I didn't even know

40:26

that I was interested in learning

40:27

anything until I got out of school.

40:30

>> The same for me. I mean, I only

40:31

discovered like I also hated books and

40:33

everything like that for my first 15

40:35

years of life because I associated that

40:38

with school. That was the kind of school

40:39

thing. So it's only then randomly one

40:42

day I happened to uh walk into the local

40:45

library for no reason and pulled out the

40:47

book here and there and then I

40:49

discovered that there was this whole

40:50

world of science and idea and literature

40:52

and all of that like very very different

40:53

from what we were doing in school and

40:55

then then that kind of opened the gates

40:57

for me to this

40:58

>> imagine what a head start you would have

41:00

had if you had like a different kind of

41:02

education

41:03

>> with super enthusiastic people who

41:06

really love teaching children are really

41:08

good at and that we reward them and that

41:12

it becomes a very prestigious position

41:13

to be in rather than what it is now. If

41:16

you talk to some guy and he goes, "I'm a

41:18

high school teacher." You're like, "Oh,

41:19

the poor bastard. How's he feed

41:20

himself?" That's the immediately what I

41:22

think. Like, good for you that you're

41:24

doing that, but also I guarantee you

41:26

could probably be making a lot more

41:28

money and be happier doing another job.

41:31

And so, that's a terrible way to start

41:33

life off. And if we just revamp that,

41:36

then you have a bunch of people that are

41:38

interacting with life in a very

41:40

different way. And instead of being

41:42

thought, I have to get a job someday. I

41:44

have to get a job after school anyway to

41:46

help my mom pay the bills because we're

41:48

struggling. So, I got to contribute to

41:50

the household even though I'm 16 now. I

41:52

can't hang out with friends. If all that

41:53

stuff's out the window and now it's

41:55

like, no, what we need to find out is

41:57

what is exciting for you? like what what

42:01

excites your mind, your specific

42:03

personality? What is it about life

42:05

that's interesting? And let's expose you

42:07

to a bunch of different things that are

42:10

exciting and interesting that other

42:11

people find value in and let's find out

42:13

which way you gravitate because maybe

42:15

you gravitate towards chess or maybe you

42:18

gravitate towards something completely

42:19

different. Maybe you're just really into

42:20

a painting. Maybe painting just lights

42:22

you up and you like look at a canvas and

42:25

you just start around with it

42:26

and that's your thing. There's a lot of

42:28

people in this world that find that.

42:30

It's just they have to find it

42:31

themselves unfortunately.

42:32

>> Yeah. Yeah. I think that that's kind of

42:37

inspiring. And but like I think the

42:40

train doesn't stop there. So if we think

42:42

even more further into this kind of

42:46

condition of technological maturity, I

42:48

think in in addition to sort of freeing

42:50

up people, you know, like making it easy

42:52

to produce the food and the houses and

42:54

like cars that go faster and don't

42:57

pollute and all of this stuff. Like if

42:59

you think through what maybe a

43:01

technologically mature civilization

43:02

could do like so a lot of these um like

43:05

learning for example is something that

43:07

gives people purpose but maybe you would

43:09

have the ability to sort of download

43:12

knowledge

43:13

>> um at the click of a button. So rather

43:15

than like if you want to learn advanced

43:17

mathematics now you have to study year

43:19

like for years right do like books with

43:22

exercises and apply yourself and then

43:24

eventually you sort of unlock.

43:26

>> Yeah. Um but like maybe at technical

43:29

maturity they would be like okay

43:30

understand mathematics okay I'm going to

43:32

press that button boom now I understand

43:34

mathematics

43:34

>> like the matrix I know kung fu remember

43:36

>> yeah so if you had like you know you may

43:39

be some kind of nanobots that could

43:41

infiltrate your brain and then change

43:43

the synopsis in just such a way that

43:46

you're now the same as you were before

43:47

except you have these concepts from

43:49

abstract mathematics.

43:50

>> Yes. uh you know after 20 minutes or

43:52

something like that some super

43:53

intelligence works out how to change

43:55

your synopsis to this new condition. Um

43:59

and if you were inclined to do various

44:01

things because they give you joy and

44:03

pleasure uh like you could also think

44:06

well I could do those things and get the

44:08

joy and pleasure or I could just push

44:09

this button that's like activates the

44:11

same joy and pleasure. M.

44:13

>> So there would be these shortcuts to

44:14

everything

44:16

and it looks like you would have a post

44:18

instrumental condition where there would

44:22

at least at first sight seem to be no

44:23

reason to do anything for the sake of

44:26

achieving something else because there

44:27

would always be this like shorter path

44:29

to that other thing that pressing the

44:31

button.

44:32

>> Yeah.

44:32

>> Um and so that's a kind of deeper form

44:34

of redundancy. It seems that all forms

44:36

of human instrumental effort would

44:39

become unmotivated.

44:41

uh you could still, you know, go to the

44:44

gym uh every day and sweat for an hour

44:49

or you could just take the pill that

44:51

induces exactly the same physiological

44:53

effects and the mental effect like the

44:55

calm or whatever you feel after.

44:57

>> Um so

44:58

>> or maybe even better genetically

45:00

engineer something so you don't have to

45:02

take a pill.

45:02

>> Yeah. Yeah. Um

45:04

>> and so so then I think you're getting

45:06

more into these like fundamental

45:08

questions of value,

45:09

>> right? philosophical questions about

45:11

what ultimately is it that makes a life

45:13

good

45:15

>> um

45:15

>> and what makes a life good for a primate

45:18

because that's what we are or a

45:20

primitive version of primates I think

45:22

we're going to become something

45:23

different and if we do it through

45:25

technologically induced evolution or

45:28

biologically induced evolution we're

45:30

still moving in a general direction just

45:32

biologically there I mean if you look at

45:34

ancient hominids and look at us we're

45:36

clearly very different so we're moving

45:37

in a general direction anyway way. And

45:40

when you look at the grays, like these

45:42

uh prototypical aliens that everybody

45:44

sees with the big heads and the skinny

45:45

bodies, what do they look like? Well,

45:47

they look like if we keep going, that's

45:49

what we're going to look like. We're

45:50

going to be these genderless, sexless,

45:52

muscleless little skinny things with

45:54

giant heads that communicate

45:55

telepathically, which is probably where

45:58

we're moving. And if we're moving that

46:00

way, uh maybe we, you know, we think of

46:02

them as being an alien from another,

46:04

maybe that's not maybe that's just the

46:06

general direction that primates go once

46:09

they figure out technology. They

46:11

eventually realize, well, all first of

46:12

all, the idea of having to have a male

46:15

and a female is kind of crazy, right?

46:18

Why? Well, because we have to reproduce.

46:20

Well, what if we don't reproduce like

46:21

that anymore? What if all reproduction

46:23

is done through engineering and there's

46:26

no more there's no more sex so there's

46:28

no more lust so there's no more jealousy

46:31

so there's no more ego there's no more

46:33

anything and then there's a hive mind

46:35

because technology advanced to the point

46:36

where the reason why they have these big

46:38

giant heads they're they're essentially

46:39

locked into everybody all around them

46:41

all the time

46:42

>> yeah well is that what we would want

46:45

though

46:45

>> not us but I don't think we'll be us

46:48

anymore I think this idea like if you

46:50

went to chimps and you said hey dude One

46:52

day you're going to be on a plane eating

46:54

peanuts, flying over the ocean. They'd

46:56

be like, "Fuck that. I don't want to do

46:57

that. I'll just stay here where the

46:59

fruit is. You guys are nuts. Like, why

47:00

do you want to do that?" And you'll be

47:02

uh addicted toratom and you'll be uh

47:05

watching YouTube all day long. Like, no,

47:08

I don't want to do that. That doesn't

47:09

sound fun.

47:10

>> We do. We do have a lot of bananas,

47:12

though.

47:13

>> Maybe. Or you have to get killed by the

47:15

other chimpanzees that want the bananas.

47:17

You know, they have chimp wars. They

47:18

come in and kill each other. So I think

47:21

we're going to be something different

47:23

and I think that's inevitable anyway. If

47:25

you believe in evolution, it's

47:27

inevitable anyway that we become

47:28

something different. We're not a

47:29

finished product.

47:30

>> Yeah. No, I I think that is true. We are

47:33

not the finished product. Now the

47:34

question is the thing that we become or

47:36

that becomes is that um a result of us

47:44

choosing how we want to be or is it just

47:47

these kind of impersonal forces like

47:49

evolution selecting certain types that

47:52

might end up uh leading to outcomes that

47:55

we actually don't want. And so I guess

47:57

the hope is that we would be able to

47:59

develop along a path that preserves and

48:02

develops uh the things that we actually

48:05

value about being human, maybe amplifies

48:08

them, then maybe adds other things.

48:10

>> Um so there are many different possible

48:12

things you could develop in the future,

48:14

but that we sort of select those that

48:15

actually make us better rather than just

48:18

randomly different um that we can sort

48:21

of grow into our ideals. But it's so

48:24

funny how much value we put in human

48:27

condition, how much value we put in

48:30

meaning because it it is valuable to us.

48:34

When you think about like what that

48:36

means in terms of the amount of energy

48:38

it produces, the amount of impact that

48:40

it has versus the structure of the

48:42

universe itself versus black holes and

48:46

stellar nurseries and things that are

48:48

just infinitely more spectacular than

48:51

the human condition. But to us it's

48:53

like, "Oh, what is meaning? What is

48:55

meaning? What is meaning to me?" Like,

48:57

well, what is meaning to me? You is

48:59

you're a finite biological organism that

49:02

has to find meaning because you're sort

49:04

of trumping around through this weird

49:06

world where eventually you're going to

49:08

die and you're going to leave your mark

49:10

and maybe reincarnation's real, maybe

49:11

the afterlife's real. Nobody

49:13

knows. So, you got to have meaning. But

49:15

the universe itself, like a human only

49:17

lives 100 years, how much meaning can

49:18

you have in a hundred years?

49:20

>> Yeah. Yeah. Now that is I I think we

49:21

kind of die prematurely. I mean we think

49:24

of us as like first first you become

49:27

stronger and more capable for 15 20

49:29

years right

49:31

uh then biologically you stagnate and

49:34

then

49:35

>> maybe you keep accumulating sort of

49:36

knowledge and skills for another few

49:38

decades but like just as you have

49:40

>> started to acquire like a modiccom of

49:42

wisdom like your brain starts to rot.

49:45

>> Yep. And then uh everything is erased

49:48

either by Alzheimer's or death and it's

49:50

kind of okay now that's all gone the

49:52

whole lifetime of experiences

49:53

>> there's your meaning

49:54

>> all the the the memories and like the

49:56

hardearned lessons that so that seems

49:58

kind of sad and probably not the best

50:01

way for things to be I think we would

50:03

want to extend the human lifespan so you

50:07

could continue to grow up not just kind

50:08

of reach 20 and then plateau there for

50:11

the rest of your life but what if we

50:13

could continue to develop so that like

50:15

at at 80 you were as much stronger uh

50:18

and like be able to understand more and

50:20

move better and like just have the same

50:22

capacity increase as you had like

50:24

between like zero and 20 and you just

50:26

kept going. Uh

50:28

>> well these life extension scientists

50:29

that are working on these things guys

50:31

like David Sinclair like they believe

50:33

that that's a not just a possibility but

50:36

an inevitability.

50:37

>> Yeah. Well so that that's more like I

50:39

guess preserving like pre preventing or

50:40

delaying that decay.

50:42

>> Sure. which is already very good like

50:44

reversing. They're talking about

50:45

reversing.

50:46

>> Yeah. But then you would go back to

50:47

being 20, right? In terms of biological

50:50

>> but um but then you have engineering

50:52

>> if if you have very long time spans. So

50:54

then you might at some point want to

50:55

continue to grow.

50:56

>> Yeah.

50:56

>> Like you might not want to just be stuck

50:58

at a 20-year-old human 10,000 years.

51:01

Like maybe eventually you would want to

51:03

become

51:04

>> um uh like slightly bigger in like in

51:08

terms of your ability to engage with the

51:11

world.

51:11

>> Sure. Of course. And if if they can

51:13

figure out how to make people Well,

51:14

there's already genetic engineering

51:16

that's being done in terms of increasing

51:18

potential intelligence and IQ. They're

51:20

already doing that, you know. And so

51:22

this was a I know I'm sure you know

51:24

about that thing that happened in China

51:27

where um this one doctor got in trouble

51:30

because he had genetically engineered

51:32

some babies to be um inoculated to HIV.

51:38

But it also at the same time gave them a

51:42

far increased potential IQ. Well, it

51:45

remains to be seen whether or not it

51:46

actually works as these guys, you know,

51:48

become like 20 and 30 and we start

51:50

putting them in chess tournaments and

51:52

see if it really did make them smarter.

51:54

But if the possibility of that is

51:57

already being studied, they already

51:58

understand the differences between like

52:02

what what is what's possible, what we

52:06

understand, and that increases every

52:08

day. They understand more every day,

52:10

more is possible every day. If that just

52:12

keeps going, well, you have a different

52:14

version of what the human consciousness

52:16

is. You have a different version of the

52:17

human mind.

52:18

>> Yeah. Although I think the the way AI is

52:21

going, I think that's the train that's

52:23

going to reach the destination faster.

52:26

>> Oh yeah. Um and then once you do have

52:29

super intelligence in machine substrate

52:31

like then that can then unlock all kinds

52:33

of technologies including these

52:35

biological technologies or

52:37

nanotechnology or host of other things

52:39

that could then sort of bring us up if

52:42

that's how how we decide to go.

52:45

>> Yeah.

52:45

>> Um and uplift us into different like

52:48

either biologically enhancing us or like

52:50

uploading us into

52:52

>> but again it's that whitewater river

52:54

raft. It's like we're we're going down

52:56

this white water and we might make it

52:58

out of this or it might crash. You know,

53:02

one of the weird things about um I'm

53:05

very fascinated with uh uh ancient

53:08

civilizations and one of the weirdest

53:10

things about ancient civilizations is

53:12

when you go really really far back, a

53:14

bunch of them have these depictions of

53:17

kings that ruled for thousands of years.

53:20

And it's very strange stuff because the

53:23

Egyptians and an ancient Sumere uh

53:27

there's a bunch of different depictions

53:30

of these kings that lived lives that

53:33

were way longer than biological humans

53:35

lived. And then there's the flood myth

53:38

or the flood story. And then after the

53:40

flood, biological life decreases pretty

53:43

radically. and it seems to get back to

53:45

like a normal version of what we assume

53:48

now, which is like a hundred years.

53:50

>> And one of the weird questions that

53:52

these um alternative ancient historians

53:56

have is are we missing the possibility

53:59

that there was a hyper advanced

54:02

civilization that existed tens of

54:04

thousands of years ago and that what

54:06

we're seeing now is not a linear

54:08

progression from caveman to human being

54:10

with an iPhone in 2026. that along the

54:13

way there might have been a very high

54:16

level of sophistication and the evidence

54:18

of that might be the pyramids and some

54:21

of these other ancient structures that

54:22

are mindboggling. As much as you try to

54:24

explain them away when you're dealing

54:26

with 2,300,000

54:28

stones, some of them are cut from a

54:30

quarry 500 miles away, 80 ton stones

54:33

that are in the seal, like perfectly cut

54:35

granite where it looks like they have

54:38

diamond drill holes in them. It seems

54:40

like there's some lost technology. And

54:42

every society has this flood myth. And

54:45

every society that has this flood myth,

54:47

especially these ones that were very

54:50

advanced somehow or another like ancient

54:52

Egypt, they have these depictions of

54:54

people that lived way longer than people

54:56

live today. And I wonder if human beings

55:01

one day will realize like, oh, if you

55:03

keep going long enough, a hundred years

55:05

is silly. Like people can they'll just

55:08

figure out what it is that makes people

55:10

age and die. Fix that and you'll live an

55:13

insanely long time. And then if people

55:15

live an insanely long time and their

55:16

capacity for reason and logic increases,

55:19

their capacity for intelligence

55:20

increases, then you have these insane

55:23

technologies that were required to do

55:26

things like build the pyramids. And that

55:28

might be what happens. That might be a a

55:30

natural course of progression that the

55:32

first thing we realize is 100 years is

55:34

not enough because I I I'm 58. I'm a

55:37

still. Like why am I learning

55:39

every day? How come I'm getting better

55:40

at being a person every day? Well, I

55:42

would have I should have figured this

55:43

out already. But you don't ever have

55:45

time to figure it out.

55:45

>> You don't have time.

55:46

>> There's not enough time

55:47

>> and you only get one run. Like I mean

55:49

you would think you'd want a trial run

55:51

first, right, on life and then like okay

55:53

now now I kind of know a little bit how

55:55

it works now. Now let's do it for real.

55:56

>> Well that's the concept.

55:57

>> It's kind of scary. I mean it's a bit

55:59

crazy that each of us is put in charge

56:01

of a whole human life

56:02

>> right

56:03

>> like are we really like reach the level

56:06

of like if you want to run an airplane

56:07

you have to go through these

56:08

certifications and stuff right and then

56:11

maybe you can be a pilot but like for a

56:12

human life it's like every single person

56:14

like okay you have 100% dictatorial

56:17

control of this person like they're

56:19

completely hostage your whims

56:22

>> and and then that's like us so but

56:24

that's that's the way it is but yeah

56:26

having the ability to kind of um try

56:28

different things and maybe do like uh

56:31

like have a kind of uh opportunity to do

56:35

a doover. Um if like if the life turned

56:39

out to be like a f every 50 years or

56:41

something, you have a chance to kind of

56:43

>> um

56:44

>> or maybe not even a doover, but it's the

56:46

same life, but you can do whatever you

56:48

want and you don't have to be

56:50

constrained to this idea that you only

56:52

have a certain amount of time and you

56:53

want to retire by your 65. We we might

56:55

look at that as being like a one of the

56:57

first completely archaic notions and the

57:00

reason why people got it all wrong like

57:01

well society will be better because

57:03

people are going to live way longer and

57:05

if you think about how much smarter how

57:06

old are you? 53.

57:09

>> Okay. Now, with the way you said that

57:10

was sad.

57:12

>> I'm older than you, dog. Don't worry

57:14

about it. But if you think about how

57:16

much smarter you are at 53 than you were

57:18

at 13, you know, now imagine how much

57:21

smarter you will be at 353

57:24

or a,53.

57:26

And if that actually becomes possible,

57:29

if a person can live to be 100 years,

57:31

why can't they live to be 4,000 years?

57:33

If they can figure out what makes people

57:35

age, if we we really can genetically

57:37

engineer human beings, that's not again

57:40

that's not breathing underwater. That's

57:41

just extending life. And if you ext

57:43

extend life and in extend intellectual

57:47

capacity and your ability to learn and

57:48

grow, holy you're you're dealing

57:51

with a 2,000-y old person. That's a

57:53

completely different kind of thing. And

57:55

that could be real someday. And that

57:57

might be also one of the things that

57:59

comes along with this new understanding

58:03

of uh of just life in general with super

58:06

intelligent AI.

58:07

>> Yeah. No, for sure. Uh fixing aging and

58:10

reversing it would be amongst the things

58:12

that a technologically mature

58:14

civilization would be able to do.

58:16

>> We just have to get people out of the

58:18

idea that it's vain. Why do you want to

58:20

live forever?

58:21

>> That's what they say now, right? But

58:23

when somebody actually has the therapy

58:25

and you could like here you could either

58:27

continue to get you know worse kidneys

58:30

and more painful knees and wrinkles

58:33

>> and you start forget things or you can

58:35

take this uh this rejuvenation serum

58:38

that everybody else is using and they

58:39

are like full of energy and running

58:41

around and doing stuff like

58:42

>> do you still think it's vain? So I think

58:44

a lot of this is Stockholm syndrome that

58:46

like you are kind of faced with the

58:49

inevitability of aging and decay and

58:52

have been for thousands of years. So you

58:54

develop a kind of romantic scaffold that

58:57

reconciles you to the inevitable.

58:59

>> I like it Stockholm syndrome

59:01

>> which is is maybe adaptive but only up

59:04

until the point where there actually

59:05

might be something you could do to

59:06

escape. Right? Then if you're too stuck

59:09

in this mindset, it might sort of

59:11

prevent you from taking advantage to to

59:13

regain your freedom,

59:14

>> right?

59:15

>> Um, and I think we are now at that

59:16

stage. We don't yet have the therapies,

59:18

but there are certainly like investments

59:20

and research and stuff we could do that

59:22

would hasten the arrival.

59:24

>> Um, and I think in fact we should have

59:26

started on a big sort of, you know,

59:29

Manhattan project to defeat aging like

59:32

decades ago and maybe we would have

59:34

better therapies by now then. But for a

59:36

long time aging was not seen as a

59:39

problem only the specific diseases that

59:41

are the result of the aging.

59:42

>> Yeah.

59:42

>> And they they got all this funding right

59:44

like so you have like huge research

59:45

products for Alzheimer's and for heart

59:47

disease and for cancer.

59:49

>> But if you look at the the main common

59:51

cause of most human disease it's scence

59:54

like you're much more likely to get any

59:55

of these when you're 80 than when you're

59:58

20 because your cells gradually decay

60:00

and gunk builds up.

60:02

>> Arteries clog up. you know, your your

60:05

DNA mutates, your methylation pattern

60:07

gets scrambled,

60:08

>> your brain.

60:08

>> Um, so so rather than just trying to put

60:10

out the fires one by one after they

60:12

occur, like at some point you just need

60:14

to sort of try to to prevent like maybe

60:17

you need a bit of rain to sort of

60:19

prevent the

60:20

>> It's kind of amazing how much we've

60:22

accomplished as a society, as

60:24

civilization, when you think about the

60:26

fact that people only live to be 100.

60:28

>> Kind of incredible.

60:29

>> Yeah. It's

60:30

>> kind of incredible. got rockets and

60:32

satellites and cell phones and

60:35

>> and people only live. So it's like

60:36

everybody has to build on everybody

60:37

else's intelligence and everybody else's

60:40

understanding of the world and develop

60:42

new things and everybody has to learn

60:44

those new things

60:44

>> and each brain is so small that it can

60:46

only learn a small little specialty,

60:48

right? and you need millions of them to

60:50

really although it's not entirely clear

60:52

with

60:53

>> with humans um

60:55

>> if if we had been much more longived

60:57

like the way we currently are configured

60:59

maybe we would just have gotten too

61:01

stuck in our ways and sort of stagnated

61:04

into some sort of ultra-conservative

61:06

society where nobody's allowed to do

61:07

anything different or the old gizers

61:09

that have their way of doing things just

61:11

remain forever in charge.

61:13

>> Yeah. Um so um I mean we just don't know

61:17

right like u whether whether that would

61:20

have slowed

61:21

>> progress or or accelerated it. Um but

61:24

but it is yeah it is still it is still

61:27

amazing like it's a long path from sort

61:29

of running around in the forest uh to

61:31

sort of these look at these uh like

61:35

advanced chip technologies and the whole

61:37

global supply chain where where like

61:40

thousands of people are working to

61:41

develop just one little tool that then

61:43

feeds into the ability to make another

61:45

tool that eventually makes these leading

61:47

edge AI chips

61:48

>> where they're layering things four atoms

61:51

deep.

61:52

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Uh it's it's it's

61:54

remarkable.

61:55

>> It's incredible. And humans only live to

61:57

be 100. Imagine what we could accomplish

61:59

if we lived to be 3,000, you know.

62:02

>> Yeah. Um or if we were just a little

62:04

bit, you know, better at these things.

62:06

Yes. Because I think we are sort of the

62:08

stupidest possible species that are

62:10

capable of developing uh advanced

62:13

technology like because as soon as we

62:15

evolved to reach that level, we started

62:16

developing it, right? And then so that's

62:18

where we are like the dumbest possible

62:20

that just barely can do this,

62:21

>> right? barely can do this while we're

62:23

blowing each other up.

62:23

>> Yeah.

62:24

>> Yeah. At the same time all over the

62:26

world.

62:27

>> Blowing up people.

62:28

>> So, um

62:29

>> Yeah. But maybe a lot of that frantic,

62:33

stupid, illogical behavior is because

62:37

we're so finite, like we're in a rush

62:40

that, you know, we realize we only have

62:41

a certain amount of time to get things

62:42

done. And so this sort of accentuates

62:45

the the desire to control resources and

62:48

to cement your immortality and to do

62:50

these things that people love to do, put

62:52

their name on buildings. This there's a

62:54

thing that people like to do that it's

62:55

almost like cementing their immortality

62:58

that maybe there'll be less of a desire

63:00

to do that if people lived way longer.

63:03

And then you would have to assume

63:06

if you can engineer humans to live

63:08

longer, you could probably engineer a

63:10

lot of stupidity out of us. they could

63:12

just find out why people behave like

63:14

what if you could just eliminate lying?

63:17

What if there's like a a genetic

63:21

solution to lying?

63:23

>> Well, or just a really good lie

63:24

detector.

63:26

>> Yeah, but I mean, what if you you can

63:28

genetically engineer out the desire to

63:30

lie?

63:32

>> Well, I mean, if you had a perfect lie

63:36

detector, there would be no point in

63:37

lying because people would just see it

63:39

immediately, right? Um,

63:41

>> well, if you could read each other's

63:42

minds, it'd be fruitless.

63:44

>> Yeah. And so that that might be closer.

63:45

I mean, who knows what you could do if

63:46

you sort of had like powerful AI system

63:49

trained to detect micro expression.

63:50

>> We just all have to get the big gray

63:52

heads with the black eyes like the

63:55

aliens have.

63:56

>> Then they read each other's minds.

63:58

>> You want one of those? Well, one of the

64:00

the weirder things that uh Bob Lazar

64:02

said, again, I don't know if you're into

64:04

this UFO stuff, but he was one of the

64:06

guys that um was a whistleblower that

64:08

said he backered crafts for the United

64:10

States government in the 1980s. They

64:13

don't have any controls in these crafts

64:15

supposedly and that they're all powered

64:17

by the minds of the beings that are

64:20

running it and that they have it's

64:21

almost like these crafts are alive and

64:23

they have some sort of a sinking with

64:25

the thing that instead of like pressing

64:27

buttons and working a joystick they just

64:30

sync with this this creation and then

64:33

they can propel it with their minds.

64:36

>> So their minds become the computer that

64:38

that moves this thing around.

64:40

>> I'm I'm a bit skeptical. I haven't

64:41

looked into that so I don't

64:43

>> You should be.

64:44

>> Sounds crazy.

64:45

>> How could you not be? And anybody who's

64:47

not skeptical sounds crazy, but if you

64:49

think about where we are now and where

64:51

we're going to be, the possibility of

64:54

that being our future is pretty likely,

64:56

right?

64:57

>> I I think like that the kind of

64:59

possibility of engineering something

65:01

like that with sufficiently advanced

65:03

technology would be there like all kinds

65:05

of stuff.

65:05

>> Yeah. Yeah, basically everything that

65:07

doesn't violate some law of physics um

65:09

to a first approximation you would be

65:11

able to construct.

65:12

>> And even when we say that it's like our

65:14

current understanding of physics, it's

65:16

not the understanding of physics a

65:18

society that's a million years older

65:19

than ours.

65:21

>> You because that's I mean that's a blink

65:23

in the eye of the time that it took to

65:26

create what we are at right now from the

65:29

big bang. Like a million years is

65:31

nothing. Um yeah, but even with our

65:34

current understanding of what physics

65:36

permits, that's still an enormous space

65:40

of uh designs and types of life and

65:44

being that you could imagine

65:46

instantiating. You could have uh you

65:50

know like a Dyson sphere. You've heard

65:51

of this concept, right? It's basically

65:53

like using the output of the sun for

65:55

energy generation. And you could have

65:57

like you surround the the sun by solar

65:59

panels that then powers

66:01

>> a civilization infrastructure maybe like

66:03

a computer like imagine the like already

66:06

we have like AI compute growing at like

66:09

240% per year or something right with

66:12

this

66:12

>> and then like imagine the kind of mind

66:14

that could run on that sized computer.

66:18

Um, so people are wondering whether like

66:23

could machines be conscious and like

66:26

discussing that right now. I think like

66:28

maybe the more pertinent question is

66:30

like are we really conscious? I think

66:33

barely

66:35

u so you're driving on on like the road

66:38

for two and a half hours a motorist,

66:40

right? and like driving past thousands

66:42

of people and homes and like mothers

66:45

with their strollers and then after does

66:49

he does he remember any of that? Like

66:51

was he even really aware of any of this

66:54

while he was driving? It's like a little

66:56

diffused sense of body and some murky

66:58

perceptions floating through uh maybe

67:01

some confused abstract idea that we

67:03

don't really understand. That's kind of

67:05

the consciousness that can fit into this

67:08

coconut sized biological organ that we

67:10

think and we think wow we are so

67:12

conscious but like imagine this Dyson

67:14

sphere consciousness

67:15

>> right

67:15

>> or uh like a mind that maybe spans a

67:18

galaxy. I think the difference between

67:21

the sort of awareness that it could have

67:23

and our awareness might be like bigger

67:25

than the difference between our

67:27

awareness and like whatever a flea has

67:29

or something like that. Way bigger. Um

67:32

so it could be this like transition

67:35

where we develop super intelligent minds

67:37

that for the first time is really life

67:40

waking up and becoming truly aware.

67:42

>> Yeah. Um and and that we are a little

67:45

bit sort of uh over pride proud in in

67:49

our own specialness when we think that

67:52

like we have achieved something close to

67:54

the maximum level of uh that we are the

67:56

standard by which consciousness should

67:58

be measured and and we we this kind of

68:01

feeble confused murky glimmer that is

68:05

barely sentient at all. Um so so that's

68:09

like I think maybe the big challenge for

68:11

our uh era like giving birth to super

68:16

intelligence and then hopefully shaping

68:18

and nurturing it and steering it so that

68:19

it becomes a positive thing both for us

68:23

ourselves uh and also for it itself and

68:27

also for whatever other if there are

68:29

other super beings somewhere in in the

68:32

world or in the cosmos that it sort of

68:35

is able to get along. with us and and

68:37

contribute positively at at the cosmic

68:40

scale. Um, and that's that's a very

68:43

multifaceted challenge, but I think

68:46

that's kind of seems to be what's going

68:48

on.

68:49

>> Yeah. And it's hard for people to think

68:51

that far ahead. You know, you just think

68:53

of intelligence being something superior

68:55

to what we currently experience. But

68:58

when you're talking about

69:00

a computer or a a

69:04

a being a conscious being that is

69:07

infinitely more powerful than anything

69:09

we can imagine, that seems to be what if

69:13

everything keeps going in the same

69:14

general direction and AI increases its

69:17

power and we figure out new ways to

69:20

power it and then because one of the

69:22

things that AI needs that's so

69:24

interesting is it needs enormous amounts

69:26

of power. And so the just these AI

69:29

centers that they're developing now,

69:31

they're de like Google's doing one where

69:33

they're developing their own nuclear

69:34

power.

69:35

>> Do you want some coffee?

69:36

>> Are you sure?

69:37

>> Yeah. Right here.

69:38

>> Let's get a little

69:39

>> I saw you reaching for your cup.

69:40

>> You shouldn't be drinking out of paper

69:41

cups anyway, man.

69:42

>> I don't usually do that.

69:44

>> So I know I don't either, but

69:45

occasionally I do. But they're so bad

69:46

for you.

69:47

>> I know. I'm usually quite conscientious

69:49

with like coming a little bit

69:51

>> up. Even when I go on the road, I've

69:53

started taking a little uh Yeti uh

69:55

coffee cup with me. So I could buy

69:58

coffee and just have them put it in

69:59

that.

70:01

>> The the inside of those things is just

70:03

lined with plastic. You're pouring hot

70:05

water into plastic and then the plastic

70:07

leeches into your coffee.

70:08

>> I don't do that normally, but I figured

70:10

like for for

70:12

having a chat with you on Jan would be

70:15

worth like I guess someund

70:17

microplastics.

70:19

>> Well, thank you. Um, I I I think uh what

70:23

we're talking about is inevitable if

70:25

human beings don't blow ourselves up. If

70:27

we don't get hit with an asteroid, blow

70:29

ourselves up or a super vul volcano

70:32

doesn't eradicate civilization. All this

70:34

stuff is it's inevitable. It's just it's

70:37

how much time does it take and how much

70:39

does it grow exponentially in power?

70:42

Because we're we're talking about

70:45

computers. And then they start bringing

70:46

up quantum computing and quantum

70:48

computers ability to do calculations and

70:51

it doesn't even make sense.

70:53

And so you think like well this is just

70:55

one version of that like what if what is

70:57

a quantum computing going to look like

70:59

500 years from now? Like what what is

71:02

computing power uh which is connected to

71:05

AI? What is what is that going to look

71:06

like 500 years from now? It's impossible

71:08

to even guess.

71:10

>> Well, we can sort of see lower bounds on

71:12

what's possible. like thinking already

71:15

of just the designs we can conceive of

71:18

that we see in principle you could make.

71:20

Maybe it'll take a long a lot of grind

71:22

to get there. But at least that

71:23

establishes like a lower bound of what a

71:25

technologically mature civilization

71:27

could do. And then maybe they have

71:28

additional ideas beyond that. But but

71:31

already that is is is enough to really

71:33

unlock. Um so if you think of a a space

71:36

of possible modes of being where like a

71:39

mode of being is a way of experiencing,

71:41

living, interacting. Um I think you look

71:46

around humanity and all people who have

71:48

existed in the past. A lot of different

71:49

characters, right? Um men, women, like

71:53

mean people, uh nasty people, crazy

71:56

people. But I think all of that

71:59

diversity of human experience is like a

72:01

tiny little corner in in in this space

72:05

of possible modes of being like it's a

72:06

huge cathedral and we've been kind of

72:08

basically sitting in in the janitor's

72:10

closet. That's like the the exploration

72:13

we've done and and the kinds of uh modes

72:16

of being, the kinds of ways of

72:18

experiencing and relating to each other

72:20

or or thinking and doing stuff that are

72:24

ultimately possible is just this this

72:25

this enormous space that we haven't that

72:28

we haven't been able to explore. Because

72:30

ultimately what we can currently

72:31

conceive of and imagine and experience

72:33

and feel is like limited to to our

72:35

biological substrate, the human brain.

72:37

And and just as your

72:40

uh like early human ancestors from a few

72:43

million years ago that you were talking

72:44

about before, like they wouldn't really

72:46

have been able to um conceive of the

72:49

modern human condition. Not just because

72:51

I didn't think of it, but because like

72:52

the ape brain can't really they don't

72:56

like like even if you try to describe it

72:58

to them somehow like what is music, what

73:01

is humor, what is romantic love, like

73:04

>> what what is science? What what is like

73:07

all of these things? What's literature?

73:09

>> Like that just doesn't fit into

73:11

>> right.

73:12

>> Right. And so presumably, I mean, you

73:14

could think right now we've achieved the

73:15

right brain size where all possible

73:18

values and interesting ideas are

73:20

accessible to us. That seems kind of

73:21

implausible. Like it seems much more

73:23

likely that just as the chimpanzees are

73:26

necessarily blind to uh like a lot of

73:30

what can give life meaning and value and

73:33

significance probably are we too.

73:35

>> Yeah. They don't even have the capacity

73:37

for it which is interesting.

73:38

>> They can't even consume it.

73:39

>> Yeah. think of them as being so

73:40

intelligent and they are in comparison

73:42

to a lot of other animals. But I think

73:44

one of the things that they were puzzled

73:45

by when they started teaching uh

73:47

primates sign language was that they

73:50

never ask questions

73:53

>> like they don't seem to have questions

73:55

about stuff. So they just they just they

73:59

exist in an intelligent way. They can

74:00

figure things out. They can they can do

74:02

things. They they know when the doors

74:04

left unlocked. They understand they

74:06

understand fairness, which is really

74:08

weird. Like chimps uh get very upset if

74:11

they're treated unfairly. Like if one

74:13

chimp gets something and they don't get

74:14

they get super violent.

74:16

>> Uh but they don't have a lot of

74:18

questions, you know, and we're filled

74:20

with questions like so what what are we

74:23

missing

74:24

>> that the next stage of being a human

74:27

will have that we're not even

74:28

considering now because it's not a part

74:30

of our experience

74:30

>> like what's the asking question type of

74:33

thing that we are not able to imagine.

74:36

Yeah.

74:36

>> And I'm at many of those types of

74:38

things.

74:39

>> Yeah. And the possibilities are

74:40

literally endless. We just don't

74:42

conceive of them because we're trapped

74:45

in this territorial primate mindset.

74:48

>> Yeah. Yeah. I think that's likely.

74:52

>> Yeah. I think so, too. I think so, too.

74:54

I think the the possibilities are

74:56

endless. And uh I think it's going to be

74:59

really really weird if uh that happens

75:02

inside of our lifetime. Like because you

75:04

and I were, you know, close to the same

75:06

age, so we grew up with answering

75:08

machines. You probably remember the

75:10

first cell phones. You probably got

75:12

online and probably the like when did

75:14

you get online? Like the early

75:15

>> 96.

75:16

>> Yeah, there you go. Yeah. See, I think

75:18

for me it was 94. Uh um so we uh we got

75:23

to see all this happen. If we get to see

75:28

the new version of humans in our

75:30

lifetime, that would be like literally

75:32

bonkers.

75:34

What an amazing time to be alive if you

75:36

really think about it. We're so

75:38

fortunate. Cuz if you grew up between

75:40

like 1700 and 1800, how much did

75:43

change? 1600 to,700. What? You make a

75:46

better boat? Like what's what's

75:48

different? Not a lot of different, man.

75:51

Everybody kind of is the same for a

75:53

hundred years. And inside of our

75:54

lifetime from the 19 the late 1960s for

75:58

me to the early 70s for you like in in

76:01

the amount of time that we've been alive

76:04

things have radically changed like

76:06

really really radically to the point

76:09

where it's probably the biggest shift in

76:12

uh human ingenuity and innovation that

76:15

the world has ever seen. And we're just

76:17

in the middle of it. And we might be in

76:18

the middle of the next one which like

76:22

literally allows us to see what the

76:25

world looks like a thousand years from

76:26

now because you're going to be alive.

76:28

>> Yeah. I mean that's why Yeah. It is now

76:31

this full-time job just to monitor the

76:32

situation like it's really but it is

76:34

>> how do you do that? Well,

76:37

you you don't really, but if you you try

76:40

to sort of um so I think the opportunity

76:43

so it used to be um like at least in my

76:47

sphere of effect if you're doing

76:48

philosophy or something like it um

76:52

most people would think you have a kind

76:53

of unlimited time horizon. people have

76:56

been working on philosophical questions

76:57

for thousands of years and um there

77:00

doesn't seem to be any huge urgency uh

77:03

if if if they have been unsolved for

77:05

thousands of years maybe if it takes

77:07

another 500 or so but I I always thought

77:10

of philosophy as having a deadline um

77:13

meaning that at some point we would

77:16

develop smarter than human forms of

77:19

intelligence presumably AI that could

77:21

then do the philosophy much better than

77:23

us and so there was a limited period of

77:25

time during which uh any advances um

77:29

like I could contribute to would be

77:31

meaningful and that it would then make

77:33

sense on focusing on that subset of

77:35

philosophical questions or general

77:37

questions that we really need the answer

77:39

to now as opposed to like you know 10 20

77:43

years in the future when when somebody

77:45

else can do them better like the machine

77:46

minds so that's that's kind of been a

77:48

lens through which I have selected the

77:50

things to work on and now of course that

77:52

deadline is moving closer So um there's

77:56

less time remaining and so my focus is

77:59

increasingly drifting towards questions

78:01

where it like that it might be relevant

78:04

to have the answer to now rather than a

78:06

year or two from now. So

78:07

>> you're almost like a cultural navigator

78:09

like a guy with a sex stent at the the

78:12

helm of a ship

78:14

looking at the constellations go I think

78:16

we're in the right direction.

78:19

>> Yeah. But now now we're sort of moving

78:20

maybe in into close to harbor and and

78:23

you need to like

78:25

>> like pay more attention to exactly

78:28

>> how deep the rocks are

78:29

>> the rocks are and like look look scan

78:31

around you

78:32

>> what when you think about um a timeline

78:36

for radical change what in your mind

78:40

what do you think what do what do you

78:41

think that looks like?

78:42

>> Well I I mean I take short timelines

78:45

seriously with AI. I mean for what we

78:47

know it could be like like could be like

78:50

a year or two or three or four and

78:52

probably be a bit longer. Um but we're

78:55

no longer at a point where we can be

78:57

confident that we won't have super

78:59

intelligence in in just a few years like

79:01

it could happen. Uh so

79:04

>> what is that when you say that for the

79:05

uninitiated? What do you mean by super

79:07

intelligence?

79:08

>> Um well I guess

79:11

we first have AGI artificial general

79:14

intelligence. uh um AI that can do all

79:19

the stuff that we can do. Um and then

79:21

super intelligence would just be that

79:23

but can do it way better than any human

79:25

can do. Um so all technical intellectual

79:30

common sense tasks and then you would

79:33

have robotics as well that can do all

79:35

the physical stuff not much later. Um

79:40

and um so this yeah so the timeline

79:42

remains on on on uncertain but um I I

79:46

think like it's it's not impossible that

79:48

this could happen very soon and then

79:50

once you have super intelligence then I

79:51

think from there on it it might be like

79:54

a sort of sprint to something

79:56

approximating technological maturity

79:58

because what you have super intelligence

79:59

that then designs even more smart AIs

80:02

right using its kind of super

80:03

intelligent AI research capability and

80:06

designing better chips and all of that.

80:09

Um, so you might then have this like

80:11

intelligence explosion

80:13

where where you go from something

80:14

slightly greater than human level to

80:18

some radical super intelligence that can

80:20

then sort of invent whatever the

80:21

remaining technologies are. Maybe there

80:23

needs to be some trial and error and

80:24

experiments in the physical world that

80:26

slows things down a bit. but some

80:28

smallish number like a singledigit

80:29

number of years from super intelligence

80:31

I think you might have something that

80:32

unlocks all these like sci-fi level

80:35

capabilities that that we've talked

80:37

about. Um at at least that's seems

80:41

relatively plausible to me.

80:44

Um

80:46

seems inevitable and the my my question

80:49

is how does it how does it announce

80:51

itself? Does it send a mass text message

80:53

to the whole world? Everybody's phone

80:55

just starts like, you know, when you

80:56

have those Amber alerts and your phone

80:58

starts vibrating or when there's some

81:00

sort of a storm warning,

81:03

>> all of a sudden your phone goes off and

81:05

then it alerts you to the fact that it's

81:07

taken over.

81:08

>> Well, so this I mean, so here we don't

81:10

really know. It's like this is very

81:12

confusing and we've never done this

81:14

before and so it's like very hard to

81:16

figure out how how this is going to

81:18

unfold and and maybe it's not even fixed

81:20

yet. Maybe it depends a little bit on

81:21

what on which we do and the extent to

81:23

which different actors get their stuff

81:26

together. Yeah.

81:27

>> Um

81:29

>> but um

81:32

like one I guess

81:35

one possible type of scenario is where

81:36

like things are just like um

81:38

accelerating. There are more and more of

81:39

these uh advances model releases

81:42

increasingly there is automation of the

81:45

research process in AI labs. Like

81:49

already you have coding assistants right

81:51

that are really useful to people in AI

81:54

labs they're using them to write a lot

81:55

of their software like right now you

81:57

still need humans for sort of the

81:58

research taste and judgment and

82:01

sometimes things go like get stuck and

82:03

you need a human to kind of redirect

82:05

them but but more and more of that make

82:08

it automated and then

82:12

um you have kind of

82:15

new iterations of models being trained

82:18

at a faster and faster clip. They can do

82:20

more and more stuff. Um

82:24

they start to uh

82:27

automate increasing chunks of the

82:29

economy. So so right now a lot of coding

82:31

is automated but like other areas as

82:35

well. Maybe they they become drop in

82:36

virtual workers that um can do

82:39

everything like a human could do with a

82:41

remote connection

82:43

uh initially and then like you have

82:45

people working on robotics. So that that

82:46

would start to kick in and then

82:48

eventually just more and more of the

82:49

action is is run by these AI systems

82:53

>> one or more um and and they're kind of

82:56

doing it at their time scale which is

82:58

speeding up.

83:00

Um then from that point um it would

83:03

depend a lot on on whether we we have

83:05

successfully aligned these systems uh so

83:08

that they actually do what the people

83:11

created them intended or or whether they

83:14

have somehow gone off the rails. Um

83:17

>> is there's also the fear that uh America

83:20

doesn't come up with it first.

83:23

This is our mostly affair in in America.

83:26

Like in China, for example, it's America

83:29

that comes up with a first. Yeah. I

83:31

mean, it's it's really just America and

83:33

China that are at the forefront of this

83:34

race, right? Russia a little bit, but

83:36

not in the same level.

83:38

>> Not not Russia.

83:39

>> No, not Russia. Who else is it?

83:41

>> Did you see this last week?

83:43

>> Ford hiring 350 engineers after AI

83:45

failed shows

83:47

failed shows human value in AI era. What

83:50

does that mean?

83:51

I tried to find the only one that didn't

83:53

just did it.

83:54

>> Um,

83:54

>> they rehired a bunch of engineers they

83:56

fired after their AI wasn't matching the

83:59

quality they needed.

84:00

>> Oh, and this is Ford. That's

84:02

interesting. They probably jumped the

84:04

gun, you know.

84:06

>> Yep.

84:07

>> They probably fired them too quickly and

84:09

now these people that they rehire, these

84:11

people are going to like, oh, how much

84:12

time we have left? Six months before AI

84:15

figures out how to do this just as well.

84:16

>> We don't know. I mean it it's it's also

84:19

possible that uh things timelines could

84:23

extend if and like

84:26

one one way that could happen is so so

84:28

the progress we've seen in the last 10

84:31

years which has been remarkable right

84:33

it's to a substantial extent driven by

84:36

the advances the increase in compute

84:39

that is being used to train and run

84:41

these systems like it used to be that

84:45

you had a cutting edge AI system if you

84:47

were some academic like running on your

84:48

PC in your office like that that was

84:51

kind of the amount of computing power

84:52

that was applied to like doing AI stuff

84:55

and now of course you have these kind of

84:57

tens of billions of dollar data centers

85:00

like hundreds of megawws

85:02

>> right

85:03

>> uh like just massive funding so the

85:04

chips have gotten better but also just

85:06

the amount of funding like you're just

85:07

building many more of these chips and so

85:09

as you apply more and more compute like

85:11

performance improves and that's like has

85:14

been a big driver. Now, at some point

85:18

there, like you might not be able to

85:20

keep increasing the amount of money you

85:22

spend on it because like you you can you

85:25

can go from like a $1,000 PC to like a

85:28

million dollars quite easily. And you

85:30

can go from a million dollar to a

85:31

billion dollars. And now maybe you're

85:34

spending on the order of a trillion

85:35

dollars across the world to build data

85:38

centers per year, but you can't really

85:41

do like three orders of magnitude very

85:43

easily there. is like not a thousand

85:45

trillion dollars to spend on it. So at

85:46

some point just expenditure has to kind

85:48

of slow down. So if we haven't achieved

85:51

super intelligence by then then maybe

85:52

that would mean progress gets slower if

85:55

if the main driver is the scale up of

85:57

compute. Now it is also true that some

85:59

of the progress is driven by algorithmic

86:01

advances like just kind of clever

86:03

algorithms.

86:04

Um so that that might continue but if

86:06

one driver stalls out then that could

86:10

result in faster progress. Uh and then

86:13

of course there's a possibility that um

86:16

the the people who want to uh uh pass or

86:18

regulate AI gain enough traction to kind

86:21

of get regulatory inhibitions.

86:24

How would they do that though if there

86:25

really is some sort of a Manhattan

86:27

project style race between the United

86:29

States and China? And what what other

86:31

countries are developing AI right now

86:32

that are close?

86:33

>> Well, I mean those are the

86:34

>> those are the two big ones.

86:35

>> The big ones. Is it possible that

86:38

someone could sneak up on us and develop

86:40

super intelligent AI first?

86:42

>> Yeah, I mean it's possible if there were

86:44

like some big algorithmic breakthrough

86:46

for example that made it a lot more

86:48

efficient to run

86:50

>> right

86:50

>> uh a similar level of capability with

86:52

less sort of AI data center

86:55

infrastructure

86:56

>> and many other countries are also trying

86:57

it's just that they are not uh as

87:00

advanced and and and out of US and China

87:02

I'd say like US currently has the edge.

87:06

What would happen if China got there

87:07

first?

87:08

>> Well, I mean um part would depend on

87:11

whether they had successfully aligned

87:14

their AI. If if it's unaligned, then I

87:17

guess the same thing happens as if US AI

87:19

is unaligned. That is the future gets

87:22

shaped according to whatever values this

87:24

AI had ended up with. Um if the

87:27

alignment problem is solved then it

87:29

might make a difference because then the

87:32

the the values would then depend on sort

87:34

of the people who owned and controlled

87:37

or governed it um would ask it to

87:40

pursue. So then then in that scenario

87:43

maybe it makes some difference um who

87:46

who

87:47

initiates it. Um,

87:50

>> so right now the the big players are,

87:52

you know, there's Google and there's uh

87:55

Open AI. There's all all these different

87:57

companies. When you say aligned, do they

87:59

have to all be kind of on the same page

88:02

or like when aligned, we're not going to

88:04

be aligned if there's a bunch of

88:05

corporations that are competing to come

88:07

up with this first? So they have to be

88:09

aligned in terms of the way they're

88:11

programmed that they're valuing human

88:14

life and that they're valuing society.

88:16

Like what do you mean by all? So, so I

88:18

mean just the technical challenge of if

88:21

if you are building an AI system and you

88:23

have certain things you want it to do

88:25

and certain things you don't want it to

88:26

do,

88:26

>> right?

88:27

>> Are you technically able to get the AI

88:29

to behave that way that you as the

88:31

person who gets to decide how

88:33

>> well that's a separate question which is

88:34

equally important maybe but different

88:37

because that's not the technical like

88:38

you can't just go to the whiteboard and

88:40

write down some formula now you have

88:42

that's like a political question

88:44

ultimately the question of governance.

88:46

>> Yes. Um so there you need you know

88:49

political organization appeals to the

88:51

best in human nature dialogues like

88:55

checks and balances whatever stuff that

88:57

might work in the political arena um to

89:00

to hope that the governance of this that

89:02

the values to which it is aligned are

89:04

sort of benign values that hopefully

89:06

incorporates um a wide set of

89:09

stakeholders.

89:10

>> Right. But that's a little isn't that a

89:12

little naive because whenever there's

89:14

any sort of a situation where something

89:16

has massive amounts of power above

89:18

others that one of the first things they

89:20

think of is what's the most money you

89:22

can generate

89:23

doing it and what is the best way to

89:26

generate the most amount of money like

89:27

that's they're going to think that way.

89:29

They're not going to think like what's

89:30

the best for the human race. Like no one

89:31

ever thinks that way. They think what is

89:33

the best way in terms of like destroying

89:35

the competition? What is the best way in

89:38

terms of extracting the most resources

89:40

out of this? Making it work for me.

89:43

That's that's what that's what people

89:45

think of immediately. And what's the

89:46

best way to stop other people from

89:48

competing with us,

89:49

>> right? Yeah. Well, so so that would be I

89:52

think a lot of um

89:54

um uh pressures and strains on whatever

89:58

governance mechanism exists at the time

90:01

when super intelligence is developed.

90:03

>> Right. Um,

90:05

>> so is this something that the technology

90:08

is so far ahead, the the potential for

90:10

it to be so far ahead of our

90:12

understanding of what it's going to be

90:14

able to do that like making laws for

90:15

that now, it's it's going to be very

90:17

difficult to even explain to people.

90:20

Like we need we need these laws and we

90:22

need these guard rails in place now

90:26

because here's what could happen. And

90:28

that that conversation is not really

90:29

happening right now. It

90:30

>> it is happening. Um

90:32

>> but is it happening politically?

90:34

>> It's starting to happen. Yeah, it's been

90:36

happening uh to an increasing extent

90:39

politically and there have been various

90:40

actions.

90:41

>> Okay. Like what actions?

90:42

>> Um well, so a few years ago for example,

90:44

there was the uh whole expert uh export

90:49

regime imposed by the US on on chips,

90:51

the most advanced chips where like China

90:53

was cut out from being able to access

90:55

the the most advanced Nvidia chips and

90:58

so forth. Um

91:01

um and that's that's kind of been

91:02

modified but that's that was motivated

91:04

to a significant extent by trying to

91:06

preserve AI edge that the US has

91:10

>> right but that's like internationally I

91:12

mean in terms of like being able to stop

91:15

corporations

91:16

>> from having the the kind of power that

91:19

this could provide them. So, so then

91:20

there have been various uh efforts that

91:22

was like proposition in California where

91:25

there were various things um more

91:28

recently you saw the whole thing I don't

91:30

know if you followed it with the um

91:32

mythos and fable five the anthropic

91:36

models that um where like so so mythos

91:40

has not been released this is the most

91:41

powerful model because it seems to have

91:45

significant cyber offense capabilities

91:48

um it can easily detect vulnerabilities

91:51

in software. And so, uh, Anthropic

91:53

figured that rather than immediately

91:55

making it available to everybody, maybe

91:57

it would be better to first try to make

91:58

it available to, um, providers of, um,

92:03

critical software infrastructure like

92:06

like like big banks and I'd like that to

92:09

patch up their systems.

92:11

Um

92:13

um and then uh Fable 5 was a kind of

92:16

restricted version of the Mythos model

92:19

like the same underlying model but with

92:21

extra safeguards. It basically refused

92:23

anything that remotely seemed like

92:26

um you know cyber hacking programming

92:30

biological stuff because maybe that

92:32

would be bio. So like it sort of drew a

92:35

wide circle around anything that even

92:37

remotely looked possibly dangerous and

92:39

it just refuses that. So that was

92:41

released. Um but then after like a week

92:44

or so

92:46

the administration uh imposed an

92:50

um an kind of export restriction that

92:52

prevented any non- US citizen uh from

92:56

using it. And that meant Anthropic had

92:58

to cut it up for everybody because they

93:00

didn't have a way in real time to verify

93:03

who is a US citizen and not.

93:05

>> Oh wow.

93:06

>> Um so then it was like unavailable for

93:08

several weeks and and like intense

93:10

negotiations behind the scenes and

93:12

working to try to figure out because

93:14

allegedly it was possible to jailbreak

93:16

it so that it sometimes gave some little

93:18

assistance with some cyber like finding

93:21

vulnerabilities in code. Um and now

93:24

recently it just became available again

93:26

because they had reached some

93:27

understanding with with the government

93:30

um where it was deemed sufficiently

93:32

safeguarded to to be released. Um and

93:35

now there's like efforts underway to try

93:37

to work out the framework because like

93:39

in the future you wouldn't want to do

93:40

this on an ad hoc basis like somebody

93:42

just decides this particular model for

93:44

some unspecified reason like you want to

93:46

have clear standards ideally right that

93:49

applies to everybody every company. So

93:51

there's now some industrywide effort to

93:53

try to work with the government to any

93:55

anyway. So there's like a lot of this

93:56

stuff um happening. I expect much more

93:59

uh of this going forward. It just has

94:01

recently become like a serious issue. PE

94:05

people until recently were kind of

94:06

ignoring the whole AI thing for the most

94:08

part. Um and then there is a second wave

94:13

coming I think once so so far we haven't

94:15

really seen any big impact on the labor

94:16

market

94:18

right uh from AI. But once that starts

94:21

to hit and you get maybe, you know, high

94:25

levels of unemployment amongst white

94:26

collar workers and like imagine if you

94:29

have millions and millions of people

94:31

with that have their university

94:33

diplomas, right? They feel a sense of

94:35

superiority and entitlement. They've

94:37

gone through the whole process. They got

94:38

their degree and now they expect a

94:41

well-paying job. Um, and then there is

94:43

no job for them. They've got nothing to

94:46

do all day long. what what they but but

94:48

complain about AI. Uh so you got to have

94:51

all these well educated people who feel

94:53

resentful and are going to say every

94:54

possible bad thing about AI that could

94:56

be said all day long and mobilize the

94:59

very powerful political constituency

95:01

that will emerge from that that's not

95:03

even yet happened but that will kind of

95:05

add to all of these other

95:07

>> um grievances that that people point to

95:10

with AI. So I think there's going to be

95:13

kind of significant political pressures

95:15

uh for doing something about AI. Um

95:19

>> isn't the the key is getting ahead of it

95:21

though. So like how how can people find

95:25

how how how can we see the

95:27

vulnerabilities in advance and recognize

95:30

like when this is going to like if there

95:32

is going to be a tipping point and a

95:34

bunch of white collar workers are going

95:35

to be out of work and there's going to

95:37

get to a point where we realize like

95:38

this is coming. This is like 3 weeks

95:40

from now. what do we do? Like what do

95:41

they do? Like what?

95:42

>> Yeah. So that's not clear to me at

95:44

least. I mean a lot of people think uh

95:47

they have different views about what

95:48

should be done on course, but

95:50

>> I it's like very hard to have an

95:54

>> it's such a complex strategic. I mean

95:56

I've been thinking about this for like

95:58

three decades maybe. Uh and I still feel

96:01

extremely unsure even which direction is

96:04

kind of up and which is down.

96:05

>> Yeah. Um, I don't think it would be

96:08

possible right now to sort of figure out

96:11

a detailed, you know, perfect regulatory

96:13

scheme or system of laws. Like there's

96:16

so many unknowns. I think we'd need to

96:17

sort of watch this closely as it happens

96:21

and be ready to react quickly to issues

96:23

that come up. Um, and hope that relevant

96:27

people are like highly competent and

96:30

well motivated and are trying their

96:31

best. And I I it's then on the margin

96:34

maybe we can do things that kind of are

96:36

constructive and increases the chances

96:39

that it will be for the good. Um

96:43

if and when I have some clear insight as

96:46

to some overall big directional push uh

96:48

I I will let you know. Um

96:53

but even basic questions like for

96:56

example do we want more government

96:58

involvement or less government

97:00

involvement? Do we want faster progress

97:03

in AI or slower progress in AI?

97:06

Um,

97:09

I don't know. Uh, is is not not

97:12

completely obvious to me. Well, I think

97:15

it's eventually going to get to wherever

97:17

it's going to get either way. Having it

97:20

slower, I I I don't I don't know if

97:22

that's really going to help us. I I

97:24

think almost like we have to crash and

97:26

then we have to figure out how to

97:28

rebuild and pick up the pieces. I don't

97:30

think we're going to be intelligent or

97:32

have enough foresight to recognize where

97:35

all these flaws and where where all

97:37

these problems are going to ultimately

97:39

be. I think they're just going to have

97:41

to happen and then people are going to

97:42

have to adjust. That's what I think.

97:45

Yeah. So I'm not advocating an AI pass

97:49

by contrast to a lot of some of my

97:51

colleagues and friends and stuff like I

97:53

I I could see though some scenario in

97:56

which it would be helpful at some point

97:59

to have a temporary slowdown of you know

98:02

a few months maybe or half a year or a

98:04

year like if you imagine you know there

98:06

are different companies countries maybe

98:07

racing to get there first.

98:09

>> Yeah. And then eventually somebody

98:11

figures out they basically have the

98:13

system in place. They just need to uh

98:15

like amp up like run it for longer. They

98:17

can sort of see that it will become

98:19

super intolerant. They hope it's

98:21

aligned. It might be very helpful in

98:24

that situation to have a few extra

98:25

months just to sort of double check all

98:28

your safeguards and rather than

98:30

immediately cranking all the knobs up to

98:32

11, like maybe sort of do it a little

98:34

bit incrementally, watch what happens,

98:36

study it, then crank it up a little bit

98:38

more. And I just think you might gain

98:40

some extra safety if you have a few

98:42

extra months there. Like the pressures

98:44

on these people in the lab

98:46

>> if it's all going to happen over a week

98:47

like it's just going to be this is the

98:49

first time we ever do this hugely

98:50

complex thing. It has to be right. We

98:52

never get a second chance. just

98:54

>> being able to like even just being able

98:55

to sleep properly for like between your

98:58

work sessions and like having

99:01

>> you know a weekend to mold things over

99:02

like just that kind of human humans

99:05

don't really operate on on

99:08

well on in in these like super short

99:10

timelines. I think a short if you could

99:14

be sure that the pause would in fact be

99:16

limited and short and then it would be

99:19

lifted. I think that could be quite

99:21

useful to have at if it could also be

99:23

timed to be at the right moment and well

99:26

implemented.

99:26

>> But wouldn't the problem be espionage

99:28

first of all?

99:29

>> That's one one issue with it.

99:31

>> Yeah. if they realize if somebody

99:32

realized hey they're about 3 days away

99:35

from this and then China bribes a bunch

99:38

of people and you know people take off

99:40

and move to

99:42

>> yeah there there are various uh

99:44

>> there are various downsides to pausing

99:46

um so one one is that um like there are

99:50

competitors who just even without

99:51

espionage are catching up

99:54

>> um another is it's not as if the world

99:57

is safe without AI Right.

100:01

>> Um,

100:02

>> good point.

100:02

>> Other like whether like the natural

100:05

hazards I think they are very small like

100:07

super volcanoes and stuff like that on

100:08

the relevant time scales

100:09

>> until they're not.

100:10

>> Well, I mean we've survived for like

100:12

hundreds of thousands of years, right?

100:14

>> And we're almost wiped out entirely

100:16

70,000 years ago.

100:17

>> Yeah. Well, that's a long time ago.

100:18

>> Is it though?

100:19

>> Well,

100:20

>> not if it happens tomorrow.

100:21

>> If it Well, but like if if something

100:23

hasn't done us in in that long a time,

100:26

probably it's not going to do us in

100:27

within the next 10 years. Boy, you're

100:28

more optimistic than me.

100:30

>> Well, it's just based on the actual

100:32

empirics of these natural catastrophes.

100:34

By contrast, I would say there are other

100:36

hazards that are not low. Uh I mean, we

100:40

have rapid advances in synthetic

100:42

biology. Some some of them driven you

100:44

are enabled maybe even by already

100:48

um um AI progress that has already taken

100:51

place like that can start to assist with

100:53

this and and more just happening

100:55

independently. you get increasing risks

100:57

from syn synthetic biology. We still

100:59

have the nuclear arsenals, right? Kind

101:01

of existing

101:03

um we think have gotten a little bit

101:06

complacent about the risks of nuclear

101:08

war. Um

101:10

um and um and various other things as

101:14

well. So I think there's like a

101:16

background level of existential risk

101:18

that humanity faces in the absence of

101:20

super intolerance that probably is

101:22

growing as well. So you don't want to

101:24

wait so long that you don't even get the

101:27

chance to roll the dice with AI because

101:29

you destroyed yourself before even

101:31

gotten that would kind of be sad.

101:33

>> Um and then um then also I mean I think

101:38

there's like some risk if you set up a

101:40

pause infrastructure that what's

101:43

initially meant to be a temporary thing

101:46

becomes permanent. Like they say there's

101:48

nothing more permanent like than a

101:49

temporary government program. If you set

101:51

up the infrastructure to actually

101:53

control this ideally at the global

101:54

scale, right? It's meant to be for six

101:56

months, like what what happens after six

101:58

months, nobody can still prove that the

102:00

AI will be safe. So you have all these

102:02

people now whose job it is to to

102:05

regulate it and like maybe they so it

102:08

could it could become kind of frozen in

102:09

and become permanent. Um and and then

102:12

also

102:15

the delay benefits of this. So if you

102:19

think what like 65 million people die

102:22

every year, um that's that's a lot of

102:27

human lives. Um

102:29

that's like one 911 every 25 minutes

102:33

just kind of boom like

102:35

>> that's a way to look at it. Um and so

102:38

there is a certain urgency if there is

102:39

something that somehow could have a

102:42

chance to to to to fix this like all the

102:46

suffering that is happening in the world

102:47

like aside from the people dying like

102:49

all the people who are bererieved right

102:51

who lost their loved one and then all

102:53

the disease that led up to that dying.

102:57

Uh right. And then all the non disease

102:59

related all the the horrible poverty and

103:02

like the suicidal depression and the

103:04

animals in the animal factories that are

103:06

like spending the there's just like this

103:08

>> I think moral urgency that if there is a

103:11

hope that getting AI right could fix

103:14

this then you don't want to wait

103:16

unnecessarily long because every day is

103:18

just this massive horror

103:19

>> right

103:20

>> um so I think there are many reasons for

103:22

why you wouldn't want unnecessary or

103:24

excessive uh uh delays in developing AI,

103:28

but but there is a trade-off because if

103:30

we can make more progress on AI safety

103:32

and alignment and get our act together a

103:34

little bit before we take the plunge,

103:35

like that's also worth quite a lot.

103:40

It's uh it it's certainly exciting

103:44

because the possibilities are right in

103:46

front of us and they're kind of endless

103:49

and it seems like they're right in front

103:50

of us. It seems like to in my mind it

103:52

seems like we're like 24 months away

103:53

from something really insane.

103:55

I I think

103:56

>> could could be could be could be could

103:58

be 48 months. It could be I mean we

103:59

don't we don't

104:00

>> Yeah, it could be. Yeah. Who knows? But

104:03

there's something happening really

104:04

quickly. You know, I talked to Elon

104:06

about Grock. He said it's uh it shocks

104:09

us like every couple weeks that we're

104:12

like, how is it doing this? How is it so

104:15

fast? How is it advancing so quickly?

104:17

And um one day cat's going to be out of

104:21

the bag and there's not going to be any

104:23

way to stop it. Like if the power went

104:25

out right now, if there was some sort of

104:26

a massive solar flare that killed our

104:29

power grids and all computer hard drives

104:33

got fried and we had to restart from

104:35

now, like

104:38

we would have to rebuild society, right?

104:40

But if we get to the point where this

104:42

thing understands what would cause that,

104:45

how to prevent that, how to make sure

104:47

that never happens, much better power

104:50

supply, much better um allocation of

104:52

resources, much better batteries, much

104:55

better uh redundant data systems where

104:58

you never have to worry about

105:01

hard drives crashing and you never have

105:03

to worry about any of these problems.

105:05

like any information you have now will

105:06

be secure and then understanding of

105:09

natural disasters will actually get

105:11

drill into this volcano and it never

105:13

goes off. Like there's gonna be a few

105:15

things that they're going to figure out

105:16

through AI that's going to prevent a lot

105:18

of the things that are probably wiped

105:19

out enormous swast of I mean imagine if

105:22

we could just actually see asteroids

105:24

coming all of them and know how to

105:25

divert them instantaneously

105:29

where we have a bunch of ideas right now

105:30

on how to do it right like coding them

105:33

>> yeah with something changes the

105:36

aerodynamics of them and

105:37

>> I think that one would be relatively

105:39

easy I mean even we could figure out to

105:41

do that I think

105:42

>> and there's also detonating There's a

105:44

bunch of different crazy ideas, but

105:45

imagine if AI is like, "Actually, you

105:48

could just do this, you know, and then

105:50

you put a shield over the Earth and you

105:52

never have to worry about it ever." The

105:53

shield's powered by the sun, so you have

105:56

ultimate power and you never have to

105:58

worry about being hit by a Manhattan

105:59

sized asteroid.

106:00

>> Yeah. I think the trickier ones might be

106:03

ones that are more internal to

106:05

civilization. If you have some process

106:11

that's either like a worldwide process

106:14

with different humans and corporations

106:16

and governments or or like an internal

106:18

process in the AI like on the one hand

106:20

you want to be able to continue to

106:22

develop new ideas new ways of doing

106:25

things. So you need to experiment and

106:27

try new things. But then there's also

106:29

the risk of you just keep trying new

106:32

ideas like that eventually you you get

106:34

stuck on some idea that actually proves

106:36

really harmful or dangerous to you.

106:39

>> Um and that you then sort of derail

106:42

internally through your own matic or

106:45

internal evolutionary development. So

106:48

>> um

106:50

>> how to sort of grow up safely in this

106:54

world where you have unlocked all kinds

106:56

of new technological capabilities even

106:58

if you're easily able to protect

107:00

yourself against external threats like

107:02

volcanoes and asteroids and stuff,

107:03

right? There might still be processes

107:06

arising from within this global

107:09

civilization just as we might invent new

107:12

technologies that are dangerous. We

107:13

might invent new like drugs that are

107:16

super addictive. Once you invent them,

107:18

you try them and then you're addicted,

107:19

you never want to.

107:21

>> Yeah. Oh, there could be other like some

107:23

some crazy ideology that once it takes

107:25

hold.

107:26

>> I'm glad you brought that upd.

107:40

>> Um, yeah. And I mean I think all that's

107:42

in fact I would add that to the list of

107:45

I've mentioned nuclear and bio

107:48

terrorist risk as like background

107:50

existential risks like another is like

107:53

some form of insanity like collective

107:55

insanity. I I feel our our

107:58

civilizational sanity already is kind of

108:02

a little bit precarious. I think we're

108:04

just kind of maybe barely holding

108:06

ourselves together. Uh-huh.

108:07

>> Um, and it's amazing how well the world

108:09

functions despite how crazy people are

108:13

and how much they loathe their opponents

108:15

and so forth. And we still managed to

108:17

somehow get it to work.

108:18

>> There's also manipulation of the

108:19

zeitgeist that's clearly being done by

108:23

bots. So, you've got a bunch of people

108:25

online that are having arguments on

108:28

Twitter and they're not even talking to

108:29

people. There's a bunch of ideas that

108:31

are being pushed out on Twitter and a

108:33

lot of these social media platforms.

108:35

It's not even human beings tweeting

108:37

about it. It's not It's not It's There's

108:40

There's algorithms. There's AI. There's

108:42

people that are hired to do it. There's

108:44

people that are working for certain

108:45

organizations that are hired to muddy up

108:48

the waters, gaslight people, create

108:51

problems, have people argue with each

108:53

other. And so it's like if AI recognizes

108:57

how easy it is to manipulate people, do

108:59

whatever it wants, that's a fear as

109:02

well.

109:03

>> Um yeah. So whenever you change the

109:05

basic parameters of sort of the

109:10

social cultural political discourse

109:14

um new dynamics will emerge

109:17

and we don't have the kind of social

109:20

science that is able to predict what

109:22

happens if you change some of these

109:23

knobs. So we've seen in the past like

109:25

you invent let's go all the way back

109:26

like somebody invents writing.

109:29

Okay. So that turns out to have had a

109:32

huge effect uh not just on people

109:34

writing like literature and stuff but

109:36

like on political systems. So you could

109:37

now have states that could keep tax

109:39

records, right? So you could have larger

109:42

political units with writing and then

109:44

they can hire standing armies

109:47

and now you have like large scale war.

109:49

You have social stratification. You

109:51

could have like the the ruler of a large

109:53

area could have, you know, enormous

109:54

wealth and you could have a soldier cast

109:57

that like protects against internal and

109:59

external. So like just the way that

110:01

human societies are politically

110:03

organized changes as a result of this

110:06

change in the rules of communication

110:08

when you can have written texts, right?

110:10

And then you have the printing press

110:12

again with like like 100 years of

110:14

religious wars in in Europe like

110:16

reformation and all of this stuff is

110:18

possibly and then like forms of

110:20

democracy later on also coming out of

110:22

this and the scientific revolution. Um

110:27

then you have like mass media in the

110:28

last century with like radio and stuff

110:30

and you have kind of demagogues that

110:32

take advantage of being able to

110:33

simultaneously talk to millions of

110:35

people because that was never possible

110:37

before. Right. Right?

110:38

>> Could have some charismatic kind of guy

110:41

who's like rallies up the whole nation

110:43

and then new ideologies become matically

110:46

fit in that situation that might never

110:48

have if if it were people writing kind

110:50

of

110:51

letters to the editor. Like it's a kind

110:54

of a different type of idea that works

110:55

there than if you're giving a kind of

110:57

stump speech that goes out to millions

110:58

simultaneously. And now with social

111:00

media of course we have another one of

111:01

these and you do see that starting to

111:03

change culture in different ways.

111:06

>> Yeah. And and now with AI being the next

111:08

wave of this, that will also change. You

111:10

have like bots, you have new ways of

111:12

finding information. You have maybe AIS

111:14

that can themselves be super persuaders.

111:17

That will also change presumably in some

111:19

unknown an unknowable way the the way

111:22

that like social discourse pans out. And

111:25

for any one of these, I guess it could

111:27

turn out to be a lot better. We could

111:28

become more informed having AI advisors.

111:30

I think that's a fairly likely scenario.

111:33

But it's also possible somehow the

111:34

dynamics shape out in a different way

111:36

and we kind of go collectively insane in

111:38

some way. Um

111:39

>> back to the white water raft.

111:41

>> Um white to backwater raft. Yes. And it

111:44

all becomes kind of totalitarian or we

111:46

sort of fragment into like political

111:49

waring tribes or we become kind of

111:52

completely unhinged. Every one of us

111:54

becomes convinced of their own little

111:55

naughty theory that they then like their

111:58

AI or feed just serves them more

112:00

material to kind of fuel their

112:01

conviction. that there different ways in

112:03

which this could go badly but um

112:07

>> but don't you think even if that happens

112:09

ultimately the progress of AI won't stop

112:13

and so

112:15

the the again I keep going back to this

112:18

thing but I think this is really what it

112:19

is is we have to change like what it

112:22

means to be a person all those things

112:24

are only problems if people stay what we

112:26

are now which is territorial primates

112:29

with desire to possess material goods

112:33

for some strange reason even though

112:34

we're a finite life form. If all that

112:36

changes, if we change what it means to

112:39

be a person, which seems inevitable,

112:42

>> then then it won't matter. Then if we

112:45

all like if we if there's no if we could

112:49

figure out a way to literally engineer

112:52

out all of the issues that humans have

112:55

with greed and violence and all the all

112:57

the different things that trouble

112:58

society if the desire for that is no

113:01

longer a part of being a person

113:04

which is that's doable that's that seems

113:07

like if we're going to continue to

113:09

evolve past you know Australiathecus to

113:12

homo sapien 2026

113:14

If they if we continue the same amount

113:16

of time in the future, we probably won't

113:18

be like that anymore. The best versions

113:21

of people aren't people that want to

113:22

steal your house and steal your land and

113:24

shoot you and take your resources.

113:26

That's the best people are the people

113:28

that contribute and they're interesting

113:30

and they they make you excited to be

113:31

around them and you like it. that if

113:34

that keeps going on and that and if that

113:36

is aided by technology, if we recognize

113:39

that there's actual patterns of human

113:42

thinking and behavior that can be

113:44

changed and that if we all agree to

113:48

subscribe to this algorithm to connect

113:50

to this computer program, connect to

113:52

this external device or maybe not even

113:55

external, maybe maybe it's internal that

113:58

allows us to communicate with each other

114:00

telepathically. Like all that all that

114:02

changes and then it doesn't matter. It

114:06

it doesn't matter if there's any guard

114:07

rails for AI or not because we're not

114:09

the same thing anymore. Like all the

114:11

problem the worry that we have about AI,

114:13

the worry we have about power

114:15

manipulation and the the ability to

114:17

influence people, all that kind of goes

114:20

away if people don't behave the way they

114:23

behave currently.

114:24

>> Mhm. Well, I guess here is one

114:28

difference with your like white water

114:30

rafting metaphor that so the one is in

114:33

in that metaphor, it's kind of we need

114:36

to hang on like there's a risk we could

114:37

smash ourselves on the rock. But if we

114:39

don't do that, then there's kind of one

114:41

way we end up right downstream.

114:42

>> We get up in a nice lake.

114:44

>> Yeah. But I think in reality what might

114:48

also be the case that in addition to

114:49

trying to not smash ourselves on the

114:51

rock, there might be places where the

114:54

choices we make affect the ultimate

114:56

destination,

114:58

>> right?

114:58

>> Um

114:59

>> go left or go right.

115:00

>> Yeah. Or which stream maybe a more Yeah.

115:04

>> multi and where like if if you stare in

115:06

one direction, you you might end up in

115:08

in one place ultimately in some sort of

115:11

strange posthuman world. Then maybe it's

115:13

really beautiful and people have the

115:14

chance to grow into their true self and

115:16

we love each other and are creative and

115:18

take initiatives and go a different way.

115:21

Maybe you have a paperclipip maximizing

115:23

AI or maybe that just everything is

115:26

paperclip. So going a third way maybe

115:27

you have like a totalitarian system with

115:31

like a small elite on top and everybody

115:33

else.

115:34

>> Yeah.

115:34

>> Um or just

115:35

>> sci-fi

115:36

>> kind of Yeah. Then there are many more

115:38

possibilities and and maybe some that

115:39

kind of we would think would look kind

115:42

of good if we chose now, but then in

115:45

reality they have some hidden flaw that

115:47

we didn't think of. So if we chose

115:48

those, it would sort of be a mistake.

115:50

>> And then maybe others that don't look

115:52

that appealing to us now, if you just

115:54

presented them in a brochure to you,

115:55

like but then actually if you thought

115:57

hard about it, maybe you would realize

115:59

that actually would be a really nice

116:00

place to live. uh because like in in in

116:03

the current world there are places that

116:04

are nice to visit that are interesting

116:06

but then those are not necessarily the

116:08

same places we would want to live and

116:10

raise a kid right so there's right

116:12

>> there are like novels and movies that

116:13

are really fun to watch

116:15

>> but you wouldn't want to live in those

116:16

worlds so there's a difference between

116:18

the kind of what makes for the good

116:19

interesting story and the place where

116:21

you actually want to spend the rest of

116:22

your life

116:23

>> and so I think there would be possibly a

116:25

lot of opportunities to make foolish

116:27

choices uh or unwise choices or

116:30

conflicts that sort of thwarts the the

116:34

process and makes us end up not not just

116:36

that we go extinct before we reach

116:37

there, but that the deer that we reach

116:39

might depend on the level of wisdom and

116:41

kindness that we have during the

116:43

process.

116:44

>> And there's always unintended

116:45

consequences with every solution that we

116:47

try to find for any problem that we

116:49

have. There's always some new thing that

116:51

comes up. We're like, "Oh, we didn't see

116:52

that coming." I mean, it's certainly

116:54

when whenever we're dealing with nature,

116:57

like whenever they've uh brought in

116:58

invasive species to handle other

117:00

invasive species, it always a giant

117:03

disaster, you know.

117:05

>> Yeah.

117:06

>> Always. And there's always unintended

117:08

consequences like, oh, now you have a

117:10

100red million frogs. Who was telling us

117:12

about that? Was it Ali Sadik that was

117:14

telling us about the frogs? Who

117:18

>> about they brought in? What did they

117:21

bring in?

117:23

forget what the invasive species was.

117:24

They brought in uh this one species to

117:28

kill another species. And the problem

117:29

they didn't realize that that species

117:31

had been was like coyotes or I forget it

117:34

was

117:34

>> in Guam.

117:35

>> It was Guam. What was it? What did they

117:37

get rid of?

117:40

>> Whatever it was, they got rid of this

117:42

thing that had been killing the frogs.

117:44

So then they had to, right? Was it

117:47

toads? So they had millions of these

117:50

things that were like all over the

117:51

highway. So you drive on them, you just

117:53

squash them everywhere you go because

117:54

there was nothing controlling the

117:55

population of these things anymore. It's

117:58

like unintended consequences of, you

118:00

know, because we're

118:01

>> we're very shortsighted in even in our

118:05

ability to be contemplative about what

118:09

the possibility of the future is when

118:10

you're dealing with such an open-ended

118:12

thing like AI, super general

118:15

intelligence that can maybe make better

118:17

versions of itself. Like what? Who the

118:19

hell knows what that means? That's

118:21

>> Are we making a god? Because it seems

118:23

like if it keeps going and that if it

118:25

makes better versions of itself, it's

118:26

ultimately going to get to the point

118:27

where it could do anything, which is

118:29

exactly what a god is. It can make

118:31

universes,

118:32

you know. What if the ultimate end of

118:34

this is a big bang button that some

118:37

scientist invents?

118:40

>> Yeah. So, so we are a little bit like

118:42

Yeah. It's I don't know the different

118:45

analogies one might reach for but I mean

118:47

I guess like

118:49

uh like say you're on a plane and then

118:51

like the the pilot has passed out or had

118:54

a heart attack or something and now it's

118:55

like we passengers

118:57

>> who somehow have to I don't know figure

118:59

out how to do the uh

119:01

>> run the controls uh we not really I mean

119:04

we we you have to still try to make your

119:06

best right but then add to that that all

119:08

the passengers are fighting amongst each

119:09

other each one thinks they are the guy

119:11

who should control the the like they're

119:13

all convinced that they are the superior

119:16

person to try to land the plane.

119:18

>> So in addition to trying to figure out

119:20

how the controls work, they are like

119:22

actually having a big fist fight in the

119:24

cockpit as well and somebody's like

119:26

dragging somebody else away. And there

119:27

like the the kind of monk tribe that is

119:30

the current state of the world here and

119:31

we're trying to shepherd like this ship

119:35

of humanity into um utopia. It's

119:40

>> Yeah,

119:40

>> it's um Yeah, it's it's it's an

119:42

interesting

119:43

>> it's Doctor Strange love on steroids.

119:45

>> But uh but that's it. We might only have

119:48

to like get it. So at at some point we

119:51

would should be able to hand over like

119:54

um the reins like once you have a

119:57

sufficiently good AI like we maybe get

120:00

assistance from that point on. I think

120:03

it's the first thing that it's going to

120:05

take over is government. He's going to

120:07

realize how unbelievably inefficient

120:10

the government is at doing almost

120:12

everything and how much how much of the

120:15

money that gets allocated is fraud and

120:18

waste. If you allow AI to sort through

120:20

that and develop much more efficient

120:22

pathways to controlling and

120:26

>> some people would not want to see that

120:28

particular

120:29

>> Exactly. That's going to be a problem.

120:31

But if we get to the point where there's

120:34

some sort of um some sort of a hive mind

120:37

possibility, some sort of a I mean, one

120:40

of the things that Elon said that I

120:42

thought was really fascinating, he said,

120:44

"You're going to be able to talk without

120:45

words."

120:47

Well, if we're able to talk without

120:48

words, like, does that eventually get to

120:50

the point we could read minds? Could

120:52

could we is is is

120:55

thought and is communication no longer

120:58

verbal? It's no longer sounds. So, right

121:00

now we associate sounds that I'm making

121:03

where you know what words I'm using,

121:05

what I'm referencing, and we get a a

121:06

certain understanding of what each other

121:08

is trying to say. But what if that's

121:10

just clunky and that's silly? And what

121:13

if uh instead of uh a scroll that you

121:17

leave in a cave somewhere, now you have

121:19

a movie that you can watch like

121:21

something much more engrossing and much

121:24

more much more powerful. And that this

121:27

is what human communication becomes. It

121:30

doesn't it and maybe this is why the

121:32

grays don't have mouths. We move away

121:34

from sounds because right now what we

121:37

figured out is like sort of like u duct

121:39

tape. We've we we're communicating. We

121:42

kind of patched it up. We figured out

121:44

some thing. We're just going to use

121:45

noises we make. Well, we have different

121:47

noises here than the people that live on

121:49

this island. They have totally different

121:50

noises. I don't know what the

121:51

they're saying. And then you have people

121:52

on the other side of the world. Totally

121:54

different noises. So, Tower of Babel

121:57

type situation, right? Where we really

121:58

can't communicate with each other unless

122:00

we have translators. But if we get to

122:02

the point where that's not how humans

122:05

communicate, we communicate purely

122:07

through thought and intention and

122:09

understanding and that it's no longer

122:12

based on language. It's no longer based

122:14

on this is a transistor. This is a

122:17

coffee mug. Instead, it's a complete

122:19

understanding of each individual thing

122:22

that we're discussing. everything. You

122:24

know what it is, you understand what it

122:26

is without it having to have a a noise

122:28

associated with it.

122:30

>> Yeah. I mean, I guess the cyber security

122:33

implications are significant if you're

122:35

giving direct access to other people to

122:37

transmit

122:38

>> signals to your brain in a high

122:41

bandwidth way that is not just

122:43

>> words kind of that it's almost like you

122:46

heard them even though there's no sound

122:48

in your ear. But if it's like actually

122:49

directly kind of interfacing in a high

122:52

bandwidth way with your neural network.

122:54

>> Also, encryption's out the window. If we

122:57

no longer have encryption, if if we get

122:59

to the point where

123:00

>> Why is that out of the window?

123:02

>> Because if computing gets to the point

123:04

where the bottleneck is like, think

123:07

about money, right? What what is money

123:09

right now? Money is all ones and zero

123:11

somewhere essentially, right? It's all

123:13

bank accounts. It's like it's like we're

123:15

not on a gold standard anymore. So what

123:18

if that bottleneck it's it's an

123:20

information bottleneck like someone's

123:22

preventing you from going to going into

123:25

these places and getting these ones and

123:27

zeros and transferring it to your place.

123:30

But what if that is all if what if

123:32

computing power gets to the point with

123:34

AI gets to the point where that those

123:36

boundaries are nonsense now all all

123:39

encryption is instantaneously decoded. I

123:42

think probably

123:44

uh cryptography is uh defense dominant

123:48

in the limit. I think like if you

123:50

imagine um mature technology, I think it

123:54

would be possible to encrypt. I mean if

123:56

nothing else you could use like a

123:57

one-time pad which would enable you to

124:01

encrypt things in a way that is

124:03

unbreakable

124:04

>> really.

124:05

>> Um I feel like that's going to be a

124:07

bottleneck. I feel and I think once we

124:09

start reading each other's minds that

124:11

might be the first thing to go.

124:12

>> Well,

124:13

>> it'll be like the ultimate social.

124:14

>> That's where you really probably would

124:16

want encryption, right? If you're going

124:17

to transmit thoughts to me through some

124:19

like you don't you don't want sort of

124:20

have a

124:21

>> Oh, you don't want some like

124:22

constantly in your head, your next door

124:24

neighbor just poking you and proddding

124:26

you. But you was you would hope that

124:29

along with this technology becomes like

124:31

a a a general state of enlightenment

124:33

that the human beings achieve where

124:36

that's no longer the kind of behavior

124:38

that we indulge in the which behavior do

124:41

we no longer

124:42

>> annoying each other each other stealing

124:44

each other's money that kind of stuff

124:46

>> well but then yeah I guess it goes back

124:47

to this question of the the utopian

124:49

condition like if you

124:52

>> and I it so there are a lot of things

124:54

that individually are bad

124:56

um like lying, stealing, cheating,

124:58

greed, uh excessive pride, like all

125:02

kinds of disease, stubbing your knee is

125:04

bad. Like

125:07

yet if you sort of imagine removing all

125:09

of those things then that changes the

125:12

human condition quite profoundly and to

125:14

some people would feel kind of maybe or

125:16

appear flavorless or

125:18

>> sort of um if there is no no tension, no

125:23

conflict, no

125:25

>> no no bruised ego, no like

125:27

>> but it might still be good but but it

125:29

does force us to sort of I think it

125:31

would be a rather fundamentally

125:32

different thing that we would be

125:34

metamorphosing

125:35

If if we went all the way in that

125:37

direction, which ultimately might be

125:38

right, but it it it would require us to

125:41

kind of find new ways of realizing

125:43

whatever values are imperfectly realized

125:46

in the current world through conflict

125:48

and competition and pain. Like some

125:50

people get maybe motivation from painful

125:52

failure.

125:53

>> Yeah. And so if you get rid of the pain

125:55

from failure, then you'd need some other

125:58

motivation like some other thing that

126:00

drives you on which they could be like

126:01

maybe it's just a love of achievement

126:03

and you feel kind of neutral or just

126:05

less happy when you fail, but you would

126:07

still need something that kind of

126:08

preserves

126:10

um whatever structure it is that we

126:12

think is valuable in the current human

126:14

condition. Unless you go all the way to

126:16

sort of radical hedonism and and think

126:18

the future is best if we were all just

126:20

kind of floating in some kind of drug

126:23

induced euphoria as as blobs that

126:26

experienced immense pleasure but had no

126:29

real texture in our experiences, didn't

126:32

engage in activities and didn't interact

126:35

with each other. Like there's like a

126:37

philosophical view where ultimately

126:38

pleasure is the only thing that matters

126:40

and the minimization of suffering. So if

126:42

if that's your axiology then it's

126:45

relatively easy to see then how at

126:47

technological maturity you would achieve

126:48

a sort of optimal state. But if you have

126:51

a more complex value system where maybe

126:54

pleasure is one good thing maybe really

126:56

important but there are also other

126:58

things like appreciating beauty you know

127:00

true friendship courage achievement and

127:03

ideally you'd want a future that

127:05

includes all of these things. then you

127:07

need to do a little bit more sort of

127:09

design work to figure out a way to

127:11

combine them all in a in a in a

127:13

meaningful way.

127:14

>> But this all comes back to our idea of

127:16

human meaning. What what's important to

127:18

humans? Our our finite 100year lifespan

127:22

adoption of this concept of meaning. But

127:24

the black hole doesn't give a about

127:26

human meaning. And it's going to be

127:28

around a lot longer than us. And it's

127:31

got a lot more power than us. And it's

127:33

doing a lot more change than us. And we

127:35

want to think that we're more important

127:38

than black holes.

127:39

>> Yeah. I mean,

127:41

>> we are us.

127:42

>> I think we are. I mean,

127:43

>> to us.

127:44

>> Yeah. To us. And uh

127:45

>> but to the universe, is it is human

127:47

meaning that important to the universe

127:48

or is it just sort of a placeholder for

127:51

like what we'll ultimately become? Is it

127:53

is it motivate us to continue to

127:56

progress?

127:58

>> Well, so I think like at technological

128:01

maturity there are certainly forms of

128:03

purpose that you could have. you could

128:04

have artificial purpose. Um, so this is

128:07

when you basically set yourself a goal

128:10

for the sake of having the goal and then

128:12

doing the activity that so you know

128:14

maybe maybe you set yourself the goal

128:16

I'm going to get this little white ball

128:18

into a sequence of 18 holes

128:21

and not only that but in order to

128:24

achieve this goal it's part of the goal

128:26

that I'm only use allowed to use this

128:28

very inconvenient method. I I can hit

128:30

the ball with a club, right? I can't.

128:32

Much easier to just pick it up and put

128:34

it in each hole successively, but that

128:37

doesn't count as being successful.

128:39

>> So, you could make up this goal

128:42

pretty arbitrary. Now, once you have

128:44

that goal, then you now have a reason to

128:46

try hard, to concentrate, to perfect

128:49

your swing, and you can play golf. So,

128:50

the goal enables you to to do this

128:53

activity of golf playing, which maybe

128:54

you find fun or worthwhile or

128:57

meaningful. Um the reason it meaningful

129:00

is because it's difficult to do.

129:02

>> Yeah. Uh um and so the future would

129:06

consist, I think, if we succeed in a lot

129:09

of game playing. Uh and you could

129:12

certainly have these artificial purposes

129:13

that you set yourself these goals that

129:15

then give you a reason to engage in an

129:16

activity.

129:17

>> Now we're back in the world of HalfLife.

129:20

Now we're back in a video game. Now

129:22

we're we're also in the simulation.

129:25

>> This is going to be your artificial

129:26

goal. And and you could imagine I think

129:29

maybe we shouldn't think of video games

129:31

here, but it could be much like games we

129:33

can't even imagine. It could be like

129:35

societywide games that last for 20 years

129:38

that involve all kinds of multimodal

129:40

things and little groups that work

129:42

together to like

129:45

>> come up with new ways of creatively. And

129:47

so in in that broad sense of kind of

129:51

things we do for their own sake, I think

129:53

game playing could be and and it's like

129:54

a lot of what children do. They're kind

129:56

of for curiosity and spend a lot of the

129:58

time playing games and we might all be

130:00

like kids again. What might be in

130:01

shorter supply is sort of natural

130:04

purpose um like purposes

130:08

um which we don't just arbitrarily make

130:10

up in order to have a purpose but that

130:12

are sort of given to us. So, so, so

130:14

right now in the world you might say um

130:18

you know making a living is not just an

130:20

arbitrary purpose because there are real

130:22

consequences if you fail like maybe

130:24

eventually you get kicked out from your

130:26

flat and then you know it's really cold

130:29

and you get rained on and like horrible

130:32

things happen. So like similarly if if

130:34

you like don't brush your teeth

130:36

eventually you will have tooth decay and

130:38

there will be real consequences. So

130:40

these there are like various things that

130:42

you have reason to do uh because there

130:44

are real negative consequences if you

130:46

fail to do them. And a lot of our lives

130:47

is structured by these natural purposes

130:50

at a societal level there's a whole

130:52

bunch of things we need to do together

130:53

right and in this future world maybe

130:56

there would be many fewer of those

130:57

natural purposes because for any one of

130:59

them you could just ask the AI to sort

131:00

it out.

131:01

>> Yeah.

131:01

>> And so the artificial purposes would be

131:03

a larger chunk. It's interesting to

131:05

think are there any natural purposes

131:07

that would survive to technological

131:09

maturity like any things that we still

131:12

have sort of instrumental reasons that

131:13

that we need to do ourselves.

131:16

Um and I think there might be a few um

131:19

but they are more subtle. that might not

131:21

strike us currently as very important,

131:24

but

131:26

um it's one of those things where

131:29

like you know that during the day if

131:31

you're outside you can't see the stars,

131:33

right? Uh it's not because they're not

131:36

there like it's because like there's so

131:38

much light that they are sort of blotted

131:40

out. But at at night

131:43

um when the stronger light from the sun

131:45

is absent, you can see these fainter

131:47

lights. I think similarly

131:49

uh in in this future there might be on

131:51

once these sort of urgent screaming

131:53

moral values of immediately pressing

131:56

practical concern go away you might be

131:57

able to perceive a whole constellation

131:59

of these more subtle values that we are

132:01

blind to currently.

132:02

>> So take the value of take the value of

132:05

like I don't know like some like

132:06

honoring uh your forebears.

132:09

So right now it doesn't seem I mean

132:11

maybe it's nice sometimes to remember

132:13

your your past parents or some

132:16

historical hero who did something good

132:18

that benefited humanity right but it's

132:21

like not the main thing that you're like

132:23

maybe that would be a bigger thing if

132:24

that was nothing else you needed to do

132:26

maybe you could actually spend serious

132:28

time um or spiritual quests like even

132:32

for people who are very religious a lot

132:34

of their actual waking hours are spent

132:36

on random other things doing their

132:38

laundry like driving to work, like the

132:40

all kinds of stuff. Like if all of that

132:42

was automated, you could imagine

132:44

spending more time on trying to align

132:47

yourself, orient yourself to this higher

132:51

being and trying to be in communication

132:53

with them. Like maybe aesthetic values

132:56

like there are maybe some things that

132:57

would just be kind of nice and cool if

132:59

if the world were like that. We don't

133:01

really have time to worry so much about

133:02

them now. But if there was nothing else

133:04

on the agenda, like coming together in

133:07

in a way that upholds some tradition in

133:10

a beautiful original way that still is

133:12

true to the original spirit together

133:15

with other people and enacting some

133:16

ceremony. Like maybe those things would

133:18

start to fill more of our time in in

133:21

conjunction with this game playing. Um

133:24

um and there might be many other uh of

133:27

these kind of subtler values that that

133:29

would start to shape what people were

133:31

doing.

133:33

>> Yeah. And ultimately, who knows?

133:37

>> Yes.

133:39

It's it's very interesting and it's very

133:42

open-ended and we really don't know

133:43

what's going to happen, but we're

133:45

probably going to see it. We're probably

133:46

going to see the strangest

133:49

thing that humans have ever had a

133:51

possibility to experience.

133:53

>> Yeah. And in the end, I guess it's uh

133:55

trustful.

133:56

>> Yeah. Well, uh I mean these the

134:00

conversations are always fascinating.

134:02

And who knows, let's let's do another

134:03

one in a few years and see how off we

134:05

are.

134:06

>> If you if come back in four years.

134:09

>> All right. Let's if we have four years.

134:11

If we have 4 years, if you can, if

134:13

you're allowed to travel in 4 years,

134:14

come back and let's see how wrong we

134:16

were.

134:18

>> Yeah, make an update.

134:19

>> Well, thank you very much. I really

134:21

appreciate you coming in here. It's

134:22

great to see you again.

134:23

>> Fun.

134:23

>> It's always fun. Okay. All right. Think

134:26

about it, kids. Bye, everybody.

Interactive Summary

The discussion on the Joe Rogan podcast, with a guest, centers on the profound and rapid advancements of AI in the past six years, contrasting its swift integration into society with the slower adoption of the internet. They explore two divergent future narratives: a dystopian one where AI becomes a superior, dominant life form, and a utopian vision of universal prosperity and the end of poverty and toil. A significant portion of the conversation addresses the future of work, questioning the necessity of traditional jobs when AI can automate tasks and suggesting a shift towards human pursuits driven by curiosity, learning, and self-fulfillment in a world of abundance. This leads to philosophical inquiries about the essence of being human, particularly if struggle and conflict, traditionally seen as integral to human experience, are eliminated by AI. The speakers advocate for a radical redesign of the education system, moving away from training productive workers to fostering leisure, critical thinking, artistic appreciation, and physical/mental wellness. They delve into the concept of human evolution through technology, envisioning extended lifespans, genetically enhanced intelligence, and potential transformations in consciousness and communication, even touching on the idea of a 'Stockholm syndrome' regarding humanity's acceptance of aging. The conversation also addresses the critical challenges of AI governance, including the rapid timeline for superintelligence, the competitive race between nations, the crucial need to align AI with human values, and the risks of societal manipulation or unforeseen consequences. They discuss the shift from 'natural purposes' (necessities) to 'artificial purposes' (self-set goals) in a technologically mature society, and ultimately ponder the nature of consciousness itself, suggesting that human awareness might be a primitive form compared to what superintelligent AI could achieve.

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