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Bond yields just hit multi-decade highs. Bitcoin shrugged.

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Bond yields just hit multi-decade highs. Bitcoin shrugged.

Transcript

391 segments

0:00

Bitcoin's rally is confronting a hostile

0:02

global bond market, but Bitcoin has

0:04

remained surprisingly strong in the face

0:06

of all that. We're going to tell you why

0:08

and break down all the other stories

0:09

moving crypto markets today on the Daily

0:11

Wolf. Let's go.

0:18

What is up everybody? Welcome to the

0:20

Daily Wolf on Yahoo Finance. I am your

0:22

host, Scott Melker, also known as the

0:25

Wolf of All Streets, and we've got about

0:27

15 minutes to dive into Bitcoin price

0:29

action and all the stories that are

0:31

moving markets. And I've got to say that

0:33

Bitcoin has been surprisingly resilient

0:36

in the face of quite a bit of macro

0:39

headwinds. We're going to break those

0:40

down right now. Here you go. Here's the

0:43

headline. Bitcoin holds near 78,000 as

0:46

rising oil treasury yields cap further

0:49

gains. Now, obviously, we know that when

0:52

Bent announced that he would intervene

0:54

in the bond market, Bitcoin went flying.

0:56

We had a short squeeze and then

0:58

continued up over $80,000. And it was

1:01

the idea that the United States

1:02

government had finally seen enough pain

1:04

in the bond market that they were going

1:06

to react. But of course, since then,

1:08

even as Bent has increased his rhetoric,

1:12

we've seen those yields skyrocket back

1:14

up as if he never said anything. The

1:16

bond vigilantes are not buying what Bant

1:19

is saying, which has been problematic,

1:21

but not for Bitcoin. Now, let's just

1:23

look at how bad it is across the board.

1:25

Japan's benchmark bond yield rises to 3%

1:28

for first time in 30 years. 10-year

1:30

yield hits highest since January 2025 as

1:33

higher oil prices stoke inflation

1:35

worries. Same story here. Seen these

1:37

headlines everywhere. Bond yield surge

1:38

as oil prices fuel inflation worries. Of

1:40

course, we've seen an uptick in military

1:43

action in the Straits of Hormuz, which I

1:45

hear are going to be the Straits of

1:46

America soon.

1:48

Why not? We've got a lake. We've got a

1:50

Gulf. We need some straits, right? Uh

1:53

and all of these things are going to put

1:55

more pressure on the Fed. Right now,

1:57

obviously, we're seeing that people are

1:59

pricing in Fed rate hikes. I still don't

2:01

believe that those will happen, but we

2:03

basically had, you know, Bessant create

2:06

this situation where Bitcoin could go

2:07

up. Then Worsh on Friday came in and

2:10

poured cold water all over the idea. And

2:13

now the actual markets are sort of

2:15

confirming what Worsh said, right? So

2:17

we've got Bitcoin consolidating here

2:18

after gaining 24%. This was its

2:21

strongest month since November of 2024,

2:24

but then you have all this bad news

2:26

which is supposed to send Bitcoin down,

2:29

but it's remained extremely strong. So

2:31

once again to add some more fuel to

2:33

this, US Treasury yields reached their

2:35

highest levels, but German 10-year

2:36

yields highest since 2011. Brit British

2:39

10year yields highest level since 2008.

2:44

And now some markets even pricing a Fed

2:46

rate hike at 70%. So we all know that

2:49

Worsh's mandate is to come in and cut

2:51

rates. We all know that what Besset

2:53

needs to see him do is to cut rates

2:56

because we have $40 trillion in national

2:59

debt now and the bot market is seemingly

3:02

breaking. A lot going on here. And the

3:05

real story once again is that Bitcoin

3:06

has ceased to care. Now, I told you when

3:09

Bitcoin seemed like it was bottoming for

3:12

all those months that one of my favorite

3:14

signals was the fact that bad news was

3:16

no longer sending the market lower. We

3:18

got, you know, news from strategy and

3:20

all these uh, you know, exchanges

3:23

shutting down and of course macro bad

3:25

news and Bitcoin remains steady before

3:27

heading up and it's still doing that

3:29

even as it's established a higher floor

3:32

up around $78,000. I think that uh,

3:34

Bitcoin is looking extremely healthy

3:36

right now, even if it gets some

3:38

retracement before what I believe is

3:41

likely to be another move to the upside.

3:44

So Washington's obviously fighting over

3:46

the price of money here uh with the Fed

3:49

and the Treasury on opposite sides, but

3:51

the operators of the world's largest

3:53

exchanges are rebuilding those markets

3:55

themselves. And one of those is the

3:57

London Stock Exchange right here. London

3:59

Stock Exchange to work with Payward to

4:01

bring biggest UK stocks onchain. So

4:03

Payward is the parent company of Kraken.

4:05

We're going to continue to tell you

4:06

about them later in the show as well,

4:08

but Payward making absolutely monster

4:11

moves right now. On the second story,

4:13

I'll break them both down. NY owner ICE

4:15

taps T0 for tokenized securities push

4:18

take stake and firm. The deal adds

4:20

transfer agent and settlement

4:21

infrastructure to ISIS plans for New

4:23

York Stock Exchange affiliated market

4:25

for tokenized stocks. TZ says, okay,

4:29

let's go back to our friends over in

4:31

London who lost the revolutionary war

4:33

test. Sorry that happened to you guys.

4:36

The London Stock Exchange partnered with

4:37

Payword, Kraken's parent company, to put

4:39

the hundred largest LSE listed stocks on

4:42

blockchain rails. They're going to do

4:43

this through X stocks, which is the

4:44

existing uh product that Kraken has, and

4:48

those tokens are backed one for one by

4:51

shares held in custody. Now, we know

4:53

there's a lot of ways that people are

4:54

doing tokenized stocks. This is arguably

4:57

the right way. So, obviously, they're

4:58

going to you're going to be able to

4:59

trade around the clock across exchanges,

5:01

self-custody wallets, and onchain

5:03

applications. you'll be able to take

5:04

yield and do all the things that you can

5:06

do with every other asset on chain. And

5:09

that's what's important here. This is

5:10

really an innovation across the board

5:11

when these assets start to be tokenized

5:13

and used within DeFi. But importantly

5:17

for the London Stock Exchange, this

5:20

could provide access to these US UK

5:23

liquid uh UK listed equities in more

5:26

than 110 countries. Now, you've got to

5:28

imagine that most places on planet Earth

5:30

do not have access to the companies on

5:33

the London Stock Exchange, and now they

5:37

will. So, this is part of their

5:39

long-term plans to tokenize everything,

5:41

which we've also seen in the United

5:42

States with the DTCC talking about

5:44

tokenization. And of course the second

5:47

story which was the New York Stock

5:48

Exchange ICE investing here in T0 uh

5:52

which is also bringing them 103

5:54

blockchain patents which might be the

5:56

most valuable part of this deal. As I

5:59

said T0 will provide transfer agent

6:01

broker dealer and settlement

6:02

infrastructure for ICE's plan tokenized

6:04

security markets. And importantly ICE

6:07

has generally been exploring whether

6:09

tokenized stocks can be used as

6:10

collateral inside its clearing house.

6:13

So, ICE uh Intercontinental Exchange,

6:15

the company was behind the New York

6:17

Stock Exchange, has invested in quite a

6:20

few things, uh, over the past year in

6:22

the crypto space, including, of course,

6:24

OKX, did a massive deal with OKX, took a

6:27

board seat, and seemingly very very

6:30

interested in being involved in the

6:32

future of crypto in the United States.

6:35

And the future of crypto, I think, as we

6:37

know, at least blockchain rails, is

6:40

tokenization of everything. So obviously

6:43

we have traditional exchanges now with

6:45

ICE and London stock exchange carefully

6:47

constructing regular uh regulated

6:49

blockchain markets. On the other side

6:51

crypto exchanges have already skipped

6:53

ahead to the 24hour

6:55

uh stock casino. Right. And this story

6:57

right now here is Binance adds options

7:00

on a thousand US stocks and ETFs as

7:02

monthly Trady perpetual volume hits $433

7:06

billion. So, I've long told you about

7:09

the story that we basically have two

7:10

converging forces that will meet in the

7:13

middle to compete for who will be the

7:15

everything app, right? I just told you

7:17

about the New York Stock Exchange and

7:19

the London Stock Exchange. Then, of

7:20

course, we have the Morgan Stanley's and

7:22

Schwabs and all the major institutions

7:24

all coming into tokenization through the

7:27

back door and coming into crypto through

7:29

the back door and having limited access

7:30

to this market. On the flip side, you

7:32

have all the cryptonative companies like

7:34

Kraken, who I just told you about with

7:36

their X stocks, and now Binance here

7:38

trying to add everything that Trad

7:41

already has. You can argue that

7:42

Hyperlquid is somewhere in the middle

7:43

because it's blockchain rails and

7:45

perpetual uh swaps on effectively all of

7:48

these assets, right? So, Binance adding

7:51

options, right? This isn't tokenized,

7:53

options on a thousand US stocks and ETFs

7:56

is massive news. So eligible users can

7:59

purchase calls and puts and receive the

8:01

underlying shares when contracts are

8:03

exercised. This is all through Binance's

8:05

Abu Dhabi regulated broker dealer routed

8:08

through US registered Alpaka securities

8:10

for execution, clearing, settlement, and

8:13

custody. Now, I'm going to tell you

8:14

something that's going to shock you.

8:17

This is not available to Americans.

8:20

Might have heard me say this before, but

8:22

if there's one thing that I know about

8:23

us in America when it comes to fun is we

8:26

hate it. when it comes to financial

8:28

markets, we can't do anything. And by

8:30

the way, uh if you think you can do

8:32

things in America, just go to New York

8:34

because they can't do anything fun for

8:36

sports, gambling, and crypto, right? Uh

8:38

but they can go to Times Square, which I

8:40

guess is nice for them, right? So

8:42

listen, uh, Binance already provides

8:44

eligible international customers access

8:46

to more than 7,000 US listed stocks and

8:49

ETFs, but now obviously adding options

8:52

is a huge, huge move. And their volumes

8:56

are absolutely insane. As it said there,

8:58

Binance's Trady perpetual volume reached

9:00

433.4

9:02

billion just doing August. That's

9:04

approximately 15 times what they did in

9:07

January. to give you some context on how

9:09

fast these are growing. Equity linked

9:12

perpetuals generated 342.9 billion

9:15

representing 79% of the total. And if

9:18

you think this is just a Binance story,

9:19

part of the same story in my mind is

9:21

this

9:23

Robin Hood chain hits record 989 million

9:26

in daily DEX volume as TVL grows. So if

9:29

you haven't been paying attention like

9:31

me, I wish I was over there flipping

9:33

meme coins in the trenches, but

9:34

obviously that is not my core

9:36

competency. But Robin Hood chain

9:39

predictably I think is absolutely

9:40

exploding. They have such a big name, so

9:42

many customers, so much interest in in

9:44

the crypto space. They've launched Robin

9:46

Hood chain which is a layer 2 on

9:49

Ethereum that's part of the Arbitum

9:51

stack using their technology. Arbitum

9:53

has gone up recently as a result. This

9:56

is now the largest L2 arguably by volume

10:00

on Ethereum and has even surpassed

10:02

Ethereum itself even though it's a layer

10:04

2 in fees uh gathered over the past 24

10:08

hours. A lot of that is because of

10:10

memecoins but not just meme coins.

10:12

Tokenized stocks once again same

10:15

narrative have absolutely exploded here

10:18

on Robin Hood chain. Obviously different

10:19

from what you can trade on Robin Hood.

10:22

This is Robin Hood onchain on their own

10:24

layer 2 blockchain on Ethereum.

10:27

This stuff is just going absolutely

10:29

bonkers, right? I don't know. I think

10:30

the memecoin craze will probably, you

10:32

know, go up and down and go from Robin

10:35

Hood chain back to Salana to other green

10:37

pastures and back. I don't really know

10:39

how to manage or look at that market,

10:42

but I know that this is a one-way street

10:44

towards the tokenization of everything.

10:46

And Robin Hood definitely intends to

10:49

compete big time in that market. So, you

10:52

know, Wall Street asks for stocks that

10:54

trade 24 hours in crypto added perpetual

10:56

leverage and a dog token for lunch, you

10:59

know, but once every asset can trade

11:02

around the clock, the obvious next step

11:04

is allowing people to trade every event

11:07

in the world. And that of course means

11:09

that they're going to do it in

11:11

prediction markets. And we've got some

11:13

big news here from Poly Market.

11:16

Trump Jr.'s firm leads 1 billion poly

11:18

market raise at 21 billion value report.

11:20

So 1789 capital that's the year he was

11:23

born is putting in about 300 million

11:26

adding to a roughly 200 billion stake as

11:28

the prediction markets valuation rises

11:30

from 15 billion to 21 billion. Now,

11:33

interestingly, Poly Market is not

11:35

available still officially in the United

11:38

States, which is

11:40

surprising considering that they have

11:42

backing from the Trump family. But Trump

11:46

Jr. is an adviser to Poly Market here

11:48

and not just an investor, but also an

11:50

adviser to their direct and largest

11:52

competitor, Koshi, who is available in

11:54

the United States. That's like literally

11:57

me uh being on the board of McDonald's

11:59

and Burger King.

12:01

I I don't understand it, but I'm here

12:03

for it because uh you know, but we know

12:05

that prediction markets are going to

12:07

continue to grow massively, but their

12:10

valuation growing 40% in just a matter

12:13

of months is absolutely huge news for

12:17

Poly Market. Now, you know, Poly

12:19

Market's valuation shows how valuable

12:21

these open markets can become. Hyperlid,

12:24

which we're going to talk about next,

12:25

shows why moving these markets inside

12:27

the regulated American system is so

12:30

difficult. And here is a two-part story.

12:33

Hyperlid seeks US foothold through

12:35

Kraton parent Hayward. Remember I told

12:38

you I'd talk about them again in crypto

12:40

perpetuals deal Bloomberg. Now I'm going

12:43

to talk about that story first, then

12:45

we'll get to the second half of this uh

12:47

in a moment. So under this proposed

12:48

structure, Payward subsidiary Bitnomial

12:50

would provide registered US users access

12:53

to selected perpetual contracts linked

12:55

to hyperlquids market. So the reason

12:56

that this is so interesting is because

13:00

the day that Bitcoin skyrocketed from

13:03

the mid60s all the way to basically

13:05

80,000. We had the bet news, then the

13:08

short squeeze, and then Donald Trump

13:10

gave a speech at the White House where

13:12

he literally said hyperlquid. He said,

13:14

"I know that Mike Celig at CFTC is

13:17

working very hard to onshore hyperlquid

13:20

and bring their contracts onshore."

13:22

Well, now we're seeing evidence that

13:23

that is possible and it's all through

13:26

once again Payward, which is the parent

13:29

company of Kraken. Bitnomial, who they

13:32

would do this from, already operates a

13:33

CFDC license, exchange, clearing house,

13:36

and brokerage stack. So, there might be

13:37

a way to backdoor it through this. Well,

13:40

just for the size of Hyperlquid, they've

13:42

processed more than 5 trillion in

13:45

cumulative perpetual volume and they

13:48

currently have approximately 13.3

13:50

billion in open interest and process

13:52

roughly 205 billion during the past 30

13:56

days. Now, the problem with bringing

13:58

unregulated decentralized markets on

14:00

shore is this. North Korean hackers are

14:03

moving tens of millions on hyperlquid as

14:05

Trump pushes to onshore the crypto

14:07

platform. So, this is one of the things

14:08

that comes with crypto is that you can't

14:10

always stop the people that are using

14:12

it, especially when you don't have AML

14:13

and KYC. Well, North Korea's Lazarus

14:16

Group, the largest hackers on this

14:17

planet of Earth, have sold more than 30

14:20

million of Bitcoin through Hyperlid

14:22

during the past 3 weeks. So, obviously,

14:26

this is the push and pull of

14:27

decentralization versus centralization

14:29

and control and regulation versus

14:31

something that's deregulated and

14:32

everyone around the world can use.

14:34

They're going to have to figure that

14:36

out. Meanwhile, I'm just very very

14:38

encouraged to see Bitcoin holding strong

14:40

in the face of all these macro tail

14:42

headwinds. I'm sure we'll be talking

14:43

about that more tomorrow on the next

14:45

Daily Wolf because that's all I got for

14:47

you today. See you tomorrow. Peace.

Interactive Summary

This episode of The Daily Wolf explores Bitcoin's surprising resilience despite significant macroeconomic headwinds, including rising bond yields and inflation concerns. Scott Melker highlights the trend of 'tokenizing everything,' focusing on the London Stock Exchange's partnership with Payward/Kraken and ICE's investment in T0 for tokenized securities. Additionally, the episode covers the growth of crypto-native platforms like Binance and Robinhood Chain, the expanding valuation of prediction markets like Polymarket, and ongoing efforts to bring decentralized platforms like Hyperliquid into the regulated US financial system.

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