Bond yields just hit multi-decade highs. Bitcoin shrugged.
391 segments
Bitcoin's rally is confronting a hostile
global bond market, but Bitcoin has
remained surprisingly strong in the face
of all that. We're going to tell you why
and break down all the other stories
moving crypto markets today on the Daily
Wolf. Let's go.
What is up everybody? Welcome to the
Daily Wolf on Yahoo Finance. I am your
host, Scott Melker, also known as the
Wolf of All Streets, and we've got about
15 minutes to dive into Bitcoin price
action and all the stories that are
moving markets. And I've got to say that
Bitcoin has been surprisingly resilient
in the face of quite a bit of macro
headwinds. We're going to break those
down right now. Here you go. Here's the
headline. Bitcoin holds near 78,000 as
rising oil treasury yields cap further
gains. Now, obviously, we know that when
Bent announced that he would intervene
in the bond market, Bitcoin went flying.
We had a short squeeze and then
continued up over $80,000. And it was
the idea that the United States
government had finally seen enough pain
in the bond market that they were going
to react. But of course, since then,
even as Bent has increased his rhetoric,
we've seen those yields skyrocket back
up as if he never said anything. The
bond vigilantes are not buying what Bant
is saying, which has been problematic,
but not for Bitcoin. Now, let's just
look at how bad it is across the board.
Japan's benchmark bond yield rises to 3%
for first time in 30 years. 10-year
yield hits highest since January 2025 as
higher oil prices stoke inflation
worries. Same story here. Seen these
headlines everywhere. Bond yield surge
as oil prices fuel inflation worries. Of
course, we've seen an uptick in military
action in the Straits of Hormuz, which I
hear are going to be the Straits of
America soon.
Why not? We've got a lake. We've got a
Gulf. We need some straits, right? Uh
and all of these things are going to put
more pressure on the Fed. Right now,
obviously, we're seeing that people are
pricing in Fed rate hikes. I still don't
believe that those will happen, but we
basically had, you know, Bessant create
this situation where Bitcoin could go
up. Then Worsh on Friday came in and
poured cold water all over the idea. And
now the actual markets are sort of
confirming what Worsh said, right? So
we've got Bitcoin consolidating here
after gaining 24%. This was its
strongest month since November of 2024,
but then you have all this bad news
which is supposed to send Bitcoin down,
but it's remained extremely strong. So
once again to add some more fuel to
this, US Treasury yields reached their
highest levels, but German 10-year
yields highest since 2011. Brit British
10year yields highest level since 2008.
And now some markets even pricing a Fed
rate hike at 70%. So we all know that
Worsh's mandate is to come in and cut
rates. We all know that what Besset
needs to see him do is to cut rates
because we have $40 trillion in national
debt now and the bot market is seemingly
breaking. A lot going on here. And the
real story once again is that Bitcoin
has ceased to care. Now, I told you when
Bitcoin seemed like it was bottoming for
all those months that one of my favorite
signals was the fact that bad news was
no longer sending the market lower. We
got, you know, news from strategy and
all these uh, you know, exchanges
shutting down and of course macro bad
news and Bitcoin remains steady before
heading up and it's still doing that
even as it's established a higher floor
up around $78,000. I think that uh,
Bitcoin is looking extremely healthy
right now, even if it gets some
retracement before what I believe is
likely to be another move to the upside.
So Washington's obviously fighting over
the price of money here uh with the Fed
and the Treasury on opposite sides, but
the operators of the world's largest
exchanges are rebuilding those markets
themselves. And one of those is the
London Stock Exchange right here. London
Stock Exchange to work with Payward to
bring biggest UK stocks onchain. So
Payward is the parent company of Kraken.
We're going to continue to tell you
about them later in the show as well,
but Payward making absolutely monster
moves right now. On the second story,
I'll break them both down. NY owner ICE
taps T0 for tokenized securities push
take stake and firm. The deal adds
transfer agent and settlement
infrastructure to ISIS plans for New
York Stock Exchange affiliated market
for tokenized stocks. TZ says, okay,
let's go back to our friends over in
London who lost the revolutionary war
test. Sorry that happened to you guys.
The London Stock Exchange partnered with
Payword, Kraken's parent company, to put
the hundred largest LSE listed stocks on
blockchain rails. They're going to do
this through X stocks, which is the
existing uh product that Kraken has, and
those tokens are backed one for one by
shares held in custody. Now, we know
there's a lot of ways that people are
doing tokenized stocks. This is arguably
the right way. So, obviously, they're
going to you're going to be able to
trade around the clock across exchanges,
self-custody wallets, and onchain
applications. you'll be able to take
yield and do all the things that you can
do with every other asset on chain. And
that's what's important here. This is
really an innovation across the board
when these assets start to be tokenized
and used within DeFi. But importantly
for the London Stock Exchange, this
could provide access to these US UK
liquid uh UK listed equities in more
than 110 countries. Now, you've got to
imagine that most places on planet Earth
do not have access to the companies on
the London Stock Exchange, and now they
will. So, this is part of their
long-term plans to tokenize everything,
which we've also seen in the United
States with the DTCC talking about
tokenization. And of course the second
story which was the New York Stock
Exchange ICE investing here in T0 uh
which is also bringing them 103
blockchain patents which might be the
most valuable part of this deal. As I
said T0 will provide transfer agent
broker dealer and settlement
infrastructure for ICE's plan tokenized
security markets. And importantly ICE
has generally been exploring whether
tokenized stocks can be used as
collateral inside its clearing house.
So, ICE uh Intercontinental Exchange,
the company was behind the New York
Stock Exchange, has invested in quite a
few things, uh, over the past year in
the crypto space, including, of course,
OKX, did a massive deal with OKX, took a
board seat, and seemingly very very
interested in being involved in the
future of crypto in the United States.
And the future of crypto, I think, as we
know, at least blockchain rails, is
tokenization of everything. So obviously
we have traditional exchanges now with
ICE and London stock exchange carefully
constructing regular uh regulated
blockchain markets. On the other side
crypto exchanges have already skipped
ahead to the 24hour
uh stock casino. Right. And this story
right now here is Binance adds options
on a thousand US stocks and ETFs as
monthly Trady perpetual volume hits $433
billion. So, I've long told you about
the story that we basically have two
converging forces that will meet in the
middle to compete for who will be the
everything app, right? I just told you
about the New York Stock Exchange and
the London Stock Exchange. Then, of
course, we have the Morgan Stanley's and
Schwabs and all the major institutions
all coming into tokenization through the
back door and coming into crypto through
the back door and having limited access
to this market. On the flip side, you
have all the cryptonative companies like
Kraken, who I just told you about with
their X stocks, and now Binance here
trying to add everything that Trad
already has. You can argue that
Hyperlquid is somewhere in the middle
because it's blockchain rails and
perpetual uh swaps on effectively all of
these assets, right? So, Binance adding
options, right? This isn't tokenized,
options on a thousand US stocks and ETFs
is massive news. So eligible users can
purchase calls and puts and receive the
underlying shares when contracts are
exercised. This is all through Binance's
Abu Dhabi regulated broker dealer routed
through US registered Alpaka securities
for execution, clearing, settlement, and
custody. Now, I'm going to tell you
something that's going to shock you.
This is not available to Americans.
Might have heard me say this before, but
if there's one thing that I know about
us in America when it comes to fun is we
hate it. when it comes to financial
markets, we can't do anything. And by
the way, uh if you think you can do
things in America, just go to New York
because they can't do anything fun for
sports, gambling, and crypto, right? Uh
but they can go to Times Square, which I
guess is nice for them, right? So
listen, uh, Binance already provides
eligible international customers access
to more than 7,000 US listed stocks and
ETFs, but now obviously adding options
is a huge, huge move. And their volumes
are absolutely insane. As it said there,
Binance's Trady perpetual volume reached
433.4
billion just doing August. That's
approximately 15 times what they did in
January. to give you some context on how
fast these are growing. Equity linked
perpetuals generated 342.9 billion
representing 79% of the total. And if
you think this is just a Binance story,
part of the same story in my mind is
this
Robin Hood chain hits record 989 million
in daily DEX volume as TVL grows. So if
you haven't been paying attention like
me, I wish I was over there flipping
meme coins in the trenches, but
obviously that is not my core
competency. But Robin Hood chain
predictably I think is absolutely
exploding. They have such a big name, so
many customers, so much interest in in
the crypto space. They've launched Robin
Hood chain which is a layer 2 on
Ethereum that's part of the Arbitum
stack using their technology. Arbitum
has gone up recently as a result. This
is now the largest L2 arguably by volume
on Ethereum and has even surpassed
Ethereum itself even though it's a layer
2 in fees uh gathered over the past 24
hours. A lot of that is because of
memecoins but not just meme coins.
Tokenized stocks once again same
narrative have absolutely exploded here
on Robin Hood chain. Obviously different
from what you can trade on Robin Hood.
This is Robin Hood onchain on their own
layer 2 blockchain on Ethereum.
This stuff is just going absolutely
bonkers, right? I don't know. I think
the memecoin craze will probably, you
know, go up and down and go from Robin
Hood chain back to Salana to other green
pastures and back. I don't really know
how to manage or look at that market,
but I know that this is a one-way street
towards the tokenization of everything.
And Robin Hood definitely intends to
compete big time in that market. So, you
know, Wall Street asks for stocks that
trade 24 hours in crypto added perpetual
leverage and a dog token for lunch, you
know, but once every asset can trade
around the clock, the obvious next step
is allowing people to trade every event
in the world. And that of course means
that they're going to do it in
prediction markets. And we've got some
big news here from Poly Market.
Trump Jr.'s firm leads 1 billion poly
market raise at 21 billion value report.
So 1789 capital that's the year he was
born is putting in about 300 million
adding to a roughly 200 billion stake as
the prediction markets valuation rises
from 15 billion to 21 billion. Now,
interestingly, Poly Market is not
available still officially in the United
States, which is
surprising considering that they have
backing from the Trump family. But Trump
Jr. is an adviser to Poly Market here
and not just an investor, but also an
adviser to their direct and largest
competitor, Koshi, who is available in
the United States. That's like literally
me uh being on the board of McDonald's
and Burger King.
I I don't understand it, but I'm here
for it because uh you know, but we know
that prediction markets are going to
continue to grow massively, but their
valuation growing 40% in just a matter
of months is absolutely huge news for
Poly Market. Now, you know, Poly
Market's valuation shows how valuable
these open markets can become. Hyperlid,
which we're going to talk about next,
shows why moving these markets inside
the regulated American system is so
difficult. And here is a two-part story.
Hyperlid seeks US foothold through
Kraton parent Hayward. Remember I told
you I'd talk about them again in crypto
perpetuals deal Bloomberg. Now I'm going
to talk about that story first, then
we'll get to the second half of this uh
in a moment. So under this proposed
structure, Payward subsidiary Bitnomial
would provide registered US users access
to selected perpetual contracts linked
to hyperlquids market. So the reason
that this is so interesting is because
the day that Bitcoin skyrocketed from
the mid60s all the way to basically
80,000. We had the bet news, then the
short squeeze, and then Donald Trump
gave a speech at the White House where
he literally said hyperlquid. He said,
"I know that Mike Celig at CFTC is
working very hard to onshore hyperlquid
and bring their contracts onshore."
Well, now we're seeing evidence that
that is possible and it's all through
once again Payward, which is the parent
company of Kraken. Bitnomial, who they
would do this from, already operates a
CFDC license, exchange, clearing house,
and brokerage stack. So, there might be
a way to backdoor it through this. Well,
just for the size of Hyperlquid, they've
processed more than 5 trillion in
cumulative perpetual volume and they
currently have approximately 13.3
billion in open interest and process
roughly 205 billion during the past 30
days. Now, the problem with bringing
unregulated decentralized markets on
shore is this. North Korean hackers are
moving tens of millions on hyperlquid as
Trump pushes to onshore the crypto
platform. So, this is one of the things
that comes with crypto is that you can't
always stop the people that are using
it, especially when you don't have AML
and KYC. Well, North Korea's Lazarus
Group, the largest hackers on this
planet of Earth, have sold more than 30
million of Bitcoin through Hyperlid
during the past 3 weeks. So, obviously,
this is the push and pull of
decentralization versus centralization
and control and regulation versus
something that's deregulated and
everyone around the world can use.
They're going to have to figure that
out. Meanwhile, I'm just very very
encouraged to see Bitcoin holding strong
in the face of all these macro tail
headwinds. I'm sure we'll be talking
about that more tomorrow on the next
Daily Wolf because that's all I got for
you today. See you tomorrow. Peace.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
This episode of The Daily Wolf explores Bitcoin's surprising resilience despite significant macroeconomic headwinds, including rising bond yields and inflation concerns. Scott Melker highlights the trend of 'tokenizing everything,' focusing on the London Stock Exchange's partnership with Payward/Kraken and ICE's investment in T0 for tokenized securities. Additionally, the episode covers the growth of crypto-native platforms like Binance and Robinhood Chain, the expanding valuation of prediction markets like Polymarket, and ongoing efforts to bring decentralized platforms like Hyperliquid into the regulated US financial system.
Videos recently processed by our community