So, the deal between Iran and the United

States has allegedly been agreed to and

will supposedly be signed on Friday of

this week. Now, there's still a lot of

details that could make the deal go

south, but if it goes through, it means

the next phase of the master plan can

finally begin.

>> The US and Iran have reached a framework

to end the fighting. A signing is set

for [music] this Friday. and what needs

to be worked out before then what

they're actually agreeing to in what

timeline and what's left to be worked

out is a [music] very big question

>> now regardless of what happens on Friday

the next phase of the economy will start

on Wednesday because on June 17th Kevin

Walsh will chair his first Federal

Reserve meeting and I think it's going

to be one of the most important meetings

that we've had in a long time because

what he says in it is going to determine

what's going to happen to our interest

rates our stock market and arguably the

whole economy. So, let me explain what I

think is going to happen. Starting with

something called the CME Fed Watch tool,

which takes a look at interest rate

probabilities. Now, it's showing us

roughly a 97.4%

chance that there will be no changes to

something called the federal fund rate,

aka we're not changing anything to

interest rates. And I think the stock

markets have already fully priced in

this reality, right? This is not news

for the market. Okay. Okay. So then why

is this meeting so important? Well, it's

important because what Kevin Walsh says

on Wednesday is going to matter more

than what he does. And to understand

why, I want to show you something. So

gold just closed below what's called the

200 day moving average 3 days in a row.

That is the longest streak since October

2023. Now, the last time that happened,

the bond market almost broke. The

Treasury Secretary panicked and injected

liquidity by buying bonds and as a

[music] result of that the price of gold

went on to triple over the next 2 years.

Now I'm not saying that gold is about to

triple but I am saying that the last

time this happened what followed was a

significant multi-year rally across gold

stocks and risk assets. So, I think

something big is [music] happening. And

Wednesday is when we get to find out

which direction the market's going to

go. So, in today's video, I'm going to

show you what the plan is from Kevin

Walsh to make everything about the US

economy look really good and how I think

he plans to solve the debt problem. And

then I'm going to tell you exactly what

to watch out for on Wednesday because

there's two possible outcomes. So, with

that said, let's get into it. Hi, my

name is Andre Jick. Hope you're doing

well. come for the finance and stay for

the super cycle. Okay, so Kevin Walsh

was nominated as Fed chair by Trump and

from day one. There was a very clear

vision of what Kevin was supposed to do.

Trump wanted him to lower interest rates

cuz Trump wants the economy to grow and

to make him more money.

>> Did Kevin Marsh commit to you that he

will push to cut interest rates if he is

confirmed?

>> So, but we talk about it and I've been

following him and I don't want to ask

him that question. I think it's

inappropriate. probably probably would

be allowed, but I want to keep it nice

and pure.

>> But Jerome Powell did not want to lower

interest rates because the US has a huge

debt problem. So the plan was to solve

for these problems without triggering a

crisis. And here is how it's going to

work with Kevin Worsh. This is a

beautiful theory from Luke Growman at

FFTT. Step one, Kevin Walsh lowers

interest rates. Remember though, the Fed

only controls the shortterm interest

rate for bonds like the two-year

treasuries. That makes borrowing cheaper

in the short end. It loosens the economy

and it gives Trump the growth story that

he wants heading into the midterms.

That's very important. Step two, at the

same time, the Fed starts shrinking its

balance sheet. This chart right here,

meaning the Fed will stop holding as

many bonds. Now, normally when the Fed

sells bonds, that pushes long-term

interest rates up, which normally is

bad, but that's actually intentional

here because it creates what's called a

steeper yield curve. A steeper yield

curve means banks can borrow money

cheaply in the short term and they can

make more money in the long end, right?

That's free money for the banks. That is

the spread that they have relied on to

make money. Now, in order for this to

happen though, short-term rates have to

be lower and long-term rates have to be

higher. Okay. Step three, arguably the

most important part, is to deregulate

the banks. Specifically, the plan is to

remove the capital requirements that

limit how many Treasury bonds banks are

allowed to hold. That regulation, by the

way, is called the supplemental leverage

ratio or SLR in nerdspeak. It's a

post208 financial crisis rule that

required banks to hold a certain amount

of money as a buffer against their total

assets including treasury bonds. So

imagine for example a bank has a 100

spots for all their investments. The SLR

is basically a rule that says you can

only have a certain number in treasury

bonds. Even though treasuries are

considered the safest asset in the

world. It's basically the same as cash.

they still take up those spots. So the

banks have hit a wall. They want to buy

more treasuries, but the regulation

says, "Sorry, it's full." Now, when CO

hit in 2020, for example, the Fed

temporarily exempted treasuries from the

SLR calculation for about a year and

then exactly what Luke Groman predicted

happened. Banks instantly piled their

money into treasuries and the bond

market started to function very

smoothly. But then when the exemption

ended and expired in March 2021, banks

had to lower their treasury holdings and

the bond markets did not like that. So

Kevin Worsh's plan is essentially to

make that CO exemption permanent or at

least to significantly loosen the SLR so

banks can hold way more treasuries

without it counting against their

capital requirements. I know it's

confusing, but what all of this means in

a nutshell is that once those limits

come off, banks pile into treasuries

with huge amounts of leverage. They will

borrow money cheaply. They'll buy bonds.

They will pocket the spread. And by

doing that, the banks absorb all the

Treasury bonds the Fed will sell. The

Fed shrinks its balance sheet and the

commercial banks expand. The net effect

on the bond market is going to be almost

identical to the Fed just buying the

bonds itself. So it's basically

quantitative easing, aka money printing.

It's just laundered through the

commercial banking system instead of the

Fed's balance sheet. Now, why would they

want to do that? Why they'd want to do

that is that if and when someone says,

"Hey, look, the Federal Reserve's

printing money again. Isn't that

inflationary?"

The Fed can say, "Actually, we're not.

Look, we're reducing our balance sheet."

They have a cover story. On the other

side, though, by removing the lending

constraints on the banks, they can now

do both. They can buy treasuries and

lend money to Main Street, a lot more

money to all of us, right? So, Kevin

Walsh can get on TV and say, "Look, I'm

doing productive deregulation. The banks

are helping small businesses and it's

not helping Wall Street, it's helping

Main Street. And there is an element of

truth to that, but at the end of the

day, it's a Rube Goldberg machine for

money printing. But then you layer AI on

top of all of this. Kevin Worsh wrote in

the Wall Street Journal once that AI

would be what's called a massive

disinflationary force, meaning people

will become more productive at their job

because of AI. And so therefore, the

price of stuff will come down just like

the tech boom of the 1990s. So the story

becomes we're cutting rates, we're

deregulating the banks to fuel growth,

and we have AI driving down inflation.

We can grow our way out of the debt

problem without anyone feeling any

inflationary pain. That was and I think

still is Kevin Worsh's master plan. That

is why the stock market was pricing in

rate cuts just a few months ago. But

then something happened. All right,

before I get into that, one of the

reasons I'm able to put these videos

together is because I'm constantly in

meetings. I'm on calls. I talk to

analysts. And so I'm always trying to

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I've ever found. So, with that said,

let's get back to it. On April 1st,

Trump announced military actions against

Iran. And almost right away, the

straight up Hermuz, which we all learned

was one of the most important shipping

lanes in the world, which controls 20%

of the world's oil, that got shut down.

Oil prices went up. And when oil goes

up, inflation goes up. And when

inflation goes up, interest rates tend

to go up to slow it down. Now, here is

why that is so catastrophic for Kevin

Walsh's plan. Remember, the whole thing

depends on short-term interest rates

going down. Because if you can lower the

short end, which the Fed can do, you can

steepen this curve. Take a look at this

chart for example, the green curve on

the left. That's what Kevin Worsh needs,

where short-term rates are low and

long-term rates are high. A big gap

between the two. And the bigger the gap,

the more banks make money cuz they

borrow cheaply on the lefthand side and

they lend expensively to us for our

mortgages on the right hand side. And

that spread is how banks make money. The

bigger that gap, the more they profit,

the more treasuries they buy, the more

the whole machine works. Now look at the

red curve on the right. That's what the

Iran war gave us instead, where short

rates went up because of the war because

all wars throughout history are

inflationary. So the gap has almost

disappeared. You can see it in the real

data at the bottom. It shows that as of

this week, the spread between the 2-year

and the 10-year Treasury interest rates

is about 4/10en of a percent. Now, for

context, in a healthy economy, that

spread should usually be between 1 to

1/2%.

The Iran war cut it by more than half.

When that happens, the banks stop buying

treasuries cuz they're like, "Well,

we're risking our money for 30 years to

make almost nothing. Let's not do that.

Right? So, the whole plan breaks. And it

breaks specifically because when

investors don't know what's about to

happen to the world or if they don't

know there's going to be a World War II,

that's when investors are like, "Pay me

more money, right? Give me a higher

interest rate to buy your bonds." That's

why the curve is flattening. That is the

issue for the Fed. So, now Kevin Walsh

walks into his first Fed meeting on

Wednesday inheriting the situation. So,

what does he do? Kevin Worsh is stuck

and that's because there's really only

two paths forward. Path one, he signals

that looser policy is coming, meaning

he's subtly hints that interest rates

will go down later this year. Maybe he

says the Fed will step in to support the

bond market if things get worse. If he

says that, the markets will read that as

liquidity incoming, aka money printer,

will be turned on. And historically when

that happens, gold goes up, stocks go

up, right? Bitcoin goes up, risk assets

in general all go up, right? This is the

path that gets everything moving again.

And let's Kevin Worsh's plan sort of get

back on track. But only if the Iran

situation resolves soon. Cuz without

that, all we have is higher and higher

gas prices, aka higher inflation. And

that makes it really hard for him to say

he's going to lower rates. But there's a

second path though where he acts what

economists call hawkish, right? He says

inflation is still a concern, guys.

Right? The economy might be strong. We

just saw a jobs report that showed

172,000 new jobs, which is almost double

what the expectation was. And in a

normal world, a strong jobs report means

a strong economy, which is good news.

But right now, the market is

interpreting it as the opposite. It's

bad news. It's bad news because a strong

economy with high inflation means rates

have to stay high or go higher. You

can't have a strong economy and then

start to lower rates. It's like adding

gasoline to the fire. You want to have a

balance. So, if Kevin Worsh stays

hawkish, aka rates stay the same, and

that's how he talks about it, expect

stocks to follow gold and Bitcoin most

likely lower. Now, here's what makes

this meeting sort of interesting.

Remember, 97.4%

of the market already expects no change

to the rates on Wednesday. So, the rate

decision itself is not the news. I think

we already know what he's going to do,

which is nothing. The news is what Kevin

Walsh signals subtly or not subtly about

the future. Every word of his press

conference on Wednesday is going to be

looked at by every trader on Wall

Street. They're going to be hyper

analytical about every word. And I think

the market's reaction in the after hours

is going to tell us a lot more than

anything than what he actually says.

Now, for now, just understand that's

most likely what Kevin Worsh's plan will

be. And that for now it's also on pause,

right? In order for it to come back to

life, one thing has to happen first.

It's that Iran deal that Trump keeps

talking about. The Iran deal is the

economic plan. And the reason why is

because the US Treasury run by Scott

Bessant has to sell or refinance $8

trillion worth of bonds in the next 12

months. It is a huge amount of money and

they have to find buyers for all of it.

Into a market where interest rates are

going up because of the Iran war into a

market where foreign central banks are

not reliable buyers of our treasuries

anymore cuz they've been replacing US

treasuries with gold and into a market

where the main buyers right now are

highly leveraged hedge funds which could

be forced to sell at any moment and

collapse. And while all of that is going

on, there's another ticking time bomb

that's even more important. The US

strategic petroleum reserve. It's the

emergency oil stockpile. And it runs out

allegedly in less than 80 days. Right

now, releasing oil from that reserve is

what's been keeping our gas prices from

going so much higher. It's been the

absorbing shock of this Hermuz being

closed, right? But once it runs out,

there is nothing left to cushion the

prices. So oil prices will go up.

Inflation goes up. And so investors are

like, "Okay, pay me more money."

Short-term rates go up. And bond

investors are like, "Well, if

inflation's going at 4.2%, I want more

than that to lend you my money.

Otherwise, why would I?" So their master

plan does not work without an Iran deal.

So when you hear Trump say that he's

working on this deal, what he's actually

saying is we need to reopen the straight

of Hermoose right away before the SPR

runs out, before oil goes up, before the

bond market breaks, before Kevin Walsh

can't cut rates anymore, before the

whole plan to QE but not really QE dies.

The Iran deal is the most important part

of this puzzle. Scott Bessant knows

this, but he's not telling us this,

which is why, and this is just an

opinion, he goes on TV and says, "Iran

is losing the war." Cuz here in the US,

we are fighting a war of optics. As long

as the optics look good and people

believe everything is good and a deal

will be reached soon and that we're

winning, our markets will stay calm. But

I think privately Scott Besson

understands exactly what game Iran is

actually playing. Iran knows they don't

need to defeat the US military. They

can't and they don't have to. They just

need to keep our moves closed long

enough for the US bond market to break.

What that breakage looks like, by the

way, is bond prices crash, interest

rates explode higher, and all of a

sudden the US government's paying so

much more in interest than it can barely

function. We'll have our private credit

markets potentially break. We might see

more banks breaking and we'll see our

overvalued stock market potentially

break. There's a lot of bad things

that'll happen and this includes the

crypto market, too. So, it would be

allaround bad for everyone. That is the

war Iran is actually fighting. And

they're kind of winning it. Not because

their military is so strong. It's

because they got the US by the uh

interest rates, if you will. And China,

by the way, is adding more fuel to the

fire. Because at the same time as the

Open AI IPO, China's like, "Check this

out, guys. Not to rain on your IPOs, but

look at the US markets, right? They're

IPOing into trillion dollar companies.

So, we're just going to spend like

onetenth of that to recreate your same

tech." That hurts our markets cuz it

puts in question our valuations. It puts

in question our reckless spending. And

it highlights how strong China's

spending power is relative to the dollar

on a par level. Remember when China

announced a deepseek? It crashed the US

market by hundreds of billions of

dollars. That's the game China's

playing. It's very subtle, but it does

not help the US when they do that. The

timing of their spending announcement

with all these IPOs, that is very

intentional and I think very strategic.

So, here's what to watch out for on

Wednesday. First, pay attention to Kevin

Wars's language around inflation. If he

says the word transitory or anything

like it, that means he's suggesting that

inflation from the Iran war is temporary

and it'll go away on its own. And that

would be what's called a dovish signal,

right? The markets will like that and

they'll most likely go up. If he sounds

concerned about inflation being

persistent, then that's hawkish. markets

will not like that. They will most

likely go down. Second thing to look out

for is watch whether he mentions the

bond market specifically. If he says

stress in the Treasury market or hints

that the Fed has tools to support the

bond market, that's him signaling to us

that the money printer is warming up. A

QE will happen if it needs to happen. If

he says that or some version of that,

then gold and Bitcoin will go up almost

right away. The third thing to watch out

for is the dollar. If the dollar weakens

as measured by what's called the Dixie

index after this press conference,

that's actually a good sign for risk

assets. It means markets are pricing in

future liquidity, aka money printing. If

the dollar strengthens though and this

Dixie index goes up, it means the

opposite. Tighter conditions, higher

rates for longer and more pain ahead.

These are some of the signs I'm looking

for. And as far as what I'm doing, I'm

not making any investment decisions yet,

but I'm looking very close at gold and

silver. The amazing Northstar charts, by

the way, on gold and silver show that we

are in a pullback and we're not in a

lowrisk entry point yet. Silver

especially has come a long way off its

highs and I'm still watching and I'm

still being patient and I'm waiting for

either a cleaner technical setup or a

clear signal from Wednesday that the

direction has changed. The super cycle

for real assets is still very young.

There's this amazing chart from Azure

Capital that shows we're only 6 years

into what historically runs for 14 to 22

years. By the way, a super cycle is

where money rotates from one place to

another in a very big way. For roughly

15 to 20 years, financial assets

dominate, stocks and bonds outperform,

and money flows into paper assets. But

then the pendulum swings the other way

and for the next 15 to 20 years real

assets dominate which are things like

commodities, right? Gold, silver,

Bitcoin, oil, hard assets outperform.

The last commodity super cycle was

between 1997 and 2011 driven by

globalization in China. Before that it

was 1963 to 1980 driven by the breakdown

of Breton Woods and the oil shocks. The

current one started around 2020. It's

being driven by delobalization, record

debt, fiscal deficits, and the expansion

of the money supply. All of which are

structurally inflationary.

That means stock markets can still and

will probably go up relative to the

dollar. However, hard assets and

commodities will go up relative to the

stock market. So, stay patient, stay

informed. Now, if you're interested in

seeing how I'm personally preparing and

how I'm investing, those videos live in

the premium member section. You'll also

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