When the rest of the markets slow down,

the futures market keeps moving. Did you

know that CME Group S&P 500 and NASDAQ

100 futures trade nearly 24 hours with

great liquidity? In the ETF markets,

volume and liquidity lessens after 400

p.m. until the next morning. But with

futures, you get trading opportunities

both day and night. Learn more at

cmegroup.com/equity

futures.

The thing about AI for business, it may

not automatically fit the way your

business works. At IBM, we've seen this

firsthand,

but by embedding AI across HR, IT, and

procurement processes, we've reduced

cost by millions, slash repetitive

tasks, and freed thousands of hours for

strategic work. Now, we're helping

companies get smarter by putting AI

where it actually pays off, deep in the

work that moves the business. Let's

create smarter business IBM.

>> You need to make a huge presentation in

an hour. Adobe Acrobat uses AI to take

all your documents and generate a

presentation with a single click. Build

slides quickly and streamline the

process. Need a lastminute pitch deck?

Do that with Acrobat. Need to level up

your presentation design? Do that with

Acrobat. You have 30 plus documents that

need to be simplified into a proposal.

Do that. Do that. Do that with Acrobat.

Learn more at adobe.com/do

thatwithacrobat.

>> Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio

news.

This is a breaking news update from

Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis

from our 3,000 journalists and analysts

around the world

>> with that Fed decision. Here's Mike

McKe.

No change in rates, no change in dots,

one descent, but some big changes in

inflation expectations. Fed officials

see one cut still in 2006 at some point,

even though their statement notes that

uncertainty about the economic outlook

remains elevated. Three members who

favored no cuts in this year moved their

dots down to one. The statement goes on

to say the implication of developments

in the Middle East for the US economy

are uncertain and the committee remains

attentive to risks to both sides of

their mandate. They still see one more

cut in 2027. Steven Myron, the only

denter he wanted a quarter point cut

this time and from the dots we discern

that he still wants 100 basis points at

some point this year. The language about

future moves remains the same. They

still talk about the extent and timing

of additional adjustments to the target

range. It's the summary of economic

projections in which we see a lot of

changes. PCE inflation this year is

forecast at 2.7%

up from 2.4% in December. Core is also

seen at 2.7% up from 2.5. Both dropped

to 2.2% next year up from 2.4% in the

December SEP. core is seen at 2.7%

uh this year. Uh both drop back as I

mentioned next year uh to 2% in 20128.

GDP marked up a tenth in both years both

of the next two years to 2.4% this year

and 2.3% next year. The unemployment

forecast remains 4.4% in 2026 dropping

to 4.3%

next year. That's up from 4.2% in

December. And the longer run estimate

for Fed funds seen as the proxy for the

neutral rate rises a tick to 3.1%. Guys,

>> Mike McKe, thank you sir. We'll catch up

with you a little bit later. Let's start

with the price action. We'll go equities

then bonds. We'll have a sneak peek of

what's happening in the commodity market

because we're tracking that throughout

the day here at Bloomberg. Equity

markets looking at the S&P 500 off

session lows but still negative by.5%.

In the bond market, yields slightly

higher on a two-year by two basis

points. basically as you were at 370 on

twos on 10's at about 421 which is

basically where we were going into this

decision. So this is what we're doing.

You go into the projections we'll ignore

the statement just for a while. We'll go

into the statement and we'll look at the

projections and compare what they were

projecting back in December and have a

look at what they're projecting now. So

let's just go through 2026 for GDP

revised slightly higher. That's some

good news. 27 as well. Same thing by the

way. So they revised GDP higher. They've

revised inflation higher and they've

kept the projection, the implied

projection for interest rates exactly

where it was for December. Those kind of

moves should be music to the ears of

bullish market participants.

>> This is an incredibly dovish hold just

by virtue of the fact that only one

person desented and it was Governor

Myron. that alone. But these projections

highlighting a tolerance for higher

inflation and still the belief that it

will come down by 2027 to that 2% level

without hiking rates and continuing with

rate cuts gives you a sense of where

this Fed's mind is at. This seems like

more of a consensus than I expected than

a lot of people expected and it is more

to looking through any kind of oil price

shock.

>> In honor of Alen Greenspan's 100th

birthday, it was a Greenspan decision.

Everybody got on board with the

chairman. That's all there is to it. and

the out years. The good news on the

inflation front, you decide whether this

is good. The Fed is still basically

forecasting the same inflation glide

path as they were before, even with this

lift to 2026.

>> How do you say transitory without saying

transitory?

>> It's in there in the forecast

>> and that's the reason why you're seeing

the yield curve steepen. And on the

margins, you're seeing 10ear yields

higher on this because ultimately this

is a Fed that is willing to stay on hold

and look through an oil price shock.

Look through the fact that even core PCE

has been higher than expected and is

expected to stay that way because

ultimately they do think the labor

market is showing signs of cracks even

though they don't necessarily see

unemployment rate ticking up and they do

want to air on the side of being more

accommodated.

>> One official I'd like to speak to just

briefly get him on the phone. Governor

Waller,

>> I was about to say Chris.

>> Okay. No descent. He said it was a coin

flip. It would come down to the labor

market report. And that labor market

report was overwhelmingly soft. So, what

does he see in the outlook for inflation

that's kept him on the sidelines?

>> Governor Waller, please join us. If you

want to call in, we'll take you. I mean,

ultimately, that is one of the key

players because he is a pillar of the

swing vote, if you will, and a lot of

people are looking to him for some sort

of guidance about what exactly is

driving his decision.

>> But at Washington State, he was expert

on game theory, and when there's a war,

there's a different game theory.

>> This is a major shock. We're working

through Bob Michael at JP Morgan Asset

Management still with us around the

table. Bob, you ready thoughts off the

back of this one?

>> I do. Um, they're telling us, don't

worry about it. There's a little bit of

a near-term inflation shock. They added

a tenth more than we did, but it's fine.

The economy is going to use that to

accelerate. Um, so they increased GDP.

That I don't get. Um, and they left

unemployment where it is. And it also

doesn't sync with the dots. I I heard uh

Mike McKe say that three members who

previously voted for no cut um changed

their view um so and and went to a cut.

>> The median 34 December projection the

median dot 3.4. Joining us now to

discuss is the former Fed vice chair

Richard Clarida. Now Rich, I know the

word transitory is banned and they can't

use it anymore particularly in the news

conference but does this scream

transitory?

Well, it certainly screams we need a we

need a synonym for it. Temporary, not

longived. You know, they could justify

it perhaps by looking at the oil futures

would still show this as dissipating

over time. But the the short answer is

nobody, including the Fed, knows this is

very elevated geopolitical risk and and

their risk on both sides. But the

baseline, I agree with your your panel,

is is is dovish constructive.

>> Uh Rich, I'm just wondering how much

this is just AI written all over it. how

much this is a Fed that is basing their

entire assumption on a productivity boom

tied to artificial intelligence and the

deployment of it through the economy and

frankly uh disinflation on its heels.

>> I think there's an element of that

perhaps more so with the incoming uh

chair than some other uh members. Um I

think it's also a statement however that

AI is is a is a support to demand in the

economy that to some extent along with

those big beautiful bill tax cuts is

probably going to offset some of what

the drag would be from the oil price uh

increases. Uh but but again this is a

modal or a baseline and I think

certainly internally we'll we'll hear

that there was a discussion of the risk

cases as as well. Uh, Professor Clar,

when you were at Columbia Hurting Cats,

Xavier Salah Martin taught the acclaimed

principles of economics. Talk to us

about the risk of a demand destruction

here. To me, it's extraordinary whether

it's war short-term or a more permanent

demand destruction. Should that be a

legitimate concern of the Fed?

Well, the demand destruction comes

simply from the fact that not only oil

prices, but energy prices and goods that

are intensive in oil and energy will

will go up and that will tend to reduce

the real incomes uh for millions and

tens of millions of of households. Now,

on the other side of that, you have the

AI uh boom, but there is no doubt that

this is going to squeeze real aggregate

uh demand the longer the oil shock

persists.

>> Check out the price action. Let's go to

equities. We're still down by 0.6%.

Unmoved by what on the surface of things

looks like a doubbish decision from the

central bank. Check out the bond market.

Similar story. No big moves off the back

of this. The only takeaway, this can

change, but the only takeaway for me is

there is nothing this institution can do

to drive this market in the face of the

shock elsewhere. Jeff Curry of Carile

said it really well early this morning

on Bloomberg TV. When Jeff turned around

and said, "There's nothing the central

bank can do about this. You cannot print

barrels. This market is still at the

mercy of what happens in the commodity

market and the Fed is not the circuit

breaker anymore because this Fed

decision I would sit here and argue is

fairly doubbish with the exception of

the absence of a descent coming from

Governor Waller is fairly doubbish. To

come out and say the outlook for growth

is better. We've revised higher. The

outlook for inflation and the median dot

is exactly the same screams doubbish.

And yet here we are no big moves in

financial markets. I think that's

notable. The Fed is playing dodgeball

without the ball. They're not the

pitcher in a game. And right now, what

they're dealing with is shock after

shock without necessarily historic

precedent. Yes, there are historic

precedents for oil shocks, but not for

the AI shock and what that does to the

overall economy. So, they might remain

on hold and that might be bullish, but

not in this moment because right now if

another oil or or natural gas plant gets

bombed, people are going to be watching

that much more than anything coming out

of J. Powell. You know, Vice Chairman

Claro, the thing I would point out here,

and Damian Sassau at Bloomberg is very

cautious on em suddenly here in this

meeting and in this press conference

more than ever. Is this the central

banker to the world?

>> Well, sure it is. Um, and um, and I

think that the Fed Fed is aware of that.

I think one thing this episode is is

reminding uh folks, we've seen it in in

the in the dollar obviously uh is you

know since since the uh Iran hostilities

commence, you know, the price of gold is

down, the price of the dollar is up. So

I think there is that element uh at as

well. Uh but you know, broadly the Fed

is reacting to events. I I think Lisa

said it well. First and foremost, this

is a major geopolitical and economic

shock. Uh the dodgeball analogy I think

is a good one. So I I think yes the Fed

is the central banker to the world but

but it's not the main attraction right

now.

>> Bob Michael with us with JP Morgan as

well. What is the what with the

tentacles of JP Morgan around the world?

How is EM doing? I see Philippine peso

almost out to 60. You saw Australia

raising rates and in

>> Oh well we're calling Australia EM.

>> No I'm not calling Australia EM.

>> Get you in trouble TK. I yeah you know I

I'm not I am watching Aussie yen though

which is life of its own

>> Sydney watching

>> well yeah

>> this was

>> their early morning deeply deeply

unhappy with that one

>> but I read all the Neville shoot

including town like Alice I want to know

uh as a central banker to the world the

sensitivities he faces what does JP

Morgan see and the reaction in the

currency markets the reaction in fixed

income of EM as the chairman speaks

>> I think there are a couple things one we

felt going through this that the dollar

would be the safe haven bid. Um and

we're seeing a lot of that. We also felt

for those who wanted to diversify away

for from dollar emerging market FX was

the place to go. The central banks in

those regions seemed to be on top of

things. And you you had a split between

those who are energy importers and those

are energy exporters, those that are

sitting on rare earth minerals and other

minerals and those who aren't. And I

think we're seeing all of that play out.

But I will tell you, our client base

still feels underallocated to emerging

markets, both equity and fixed income.

We're seeing those allocations continue

to come in. Um, I think there's a good

talent there. He just went along

Australia.

>> There you go. Back-to-back hikes at the

emerging market central bank over at the

RBA. See that?

>> Honestly, there's some offended people

down under right now.

I'm not weighing in on this one, but I

will say I will say that tomorrow will

be really interesting with the BOE and

the ECB.

>> There you go. Your talent, Bremo. All

right,

>> Rich Cloud is still with us. Rich, I

want to come to you on an important

topic to wrap things up, a really

serious one. The future for Chairman

Pal. This is not how usually these

things play out. Typically how this

plays out. The chairman knows when his

term finishes. He gets a great send off.

He walks away and he does a $1 million

speech in about 12 months time and has a

happy retirement. This feels so

different, Rich. Kevin Walsh is

ultimately being nominated. We have no

idea when the confirmation hearing is

going to be. Bob Michaels sat here a

little bit earlier and said he thinks

the chairman Jay Powell is still going

to be there by the time you get to the

midterms. Rich, how do you think this

process is going to play out in the next

several months?

>> Well, you you're you you you're

absolutely correct. This is

unprecedented uh unusual that the

handoff is usually pretty smooth and and

and very well telegraphed. Um and the

difference of course now is several uh

fold. Uh one of course is the uh you

know the DOJ uh investigation of PAL

that the Fed is pushing back on. In

addition of course the even worsh

getting a hearing is is now up up in the

air. Um, you know, I I I certainly do

expect J Pal will will will stay on u

and perhaps a meeting or two after Worsh

finally arrives. You know, whether or

not that's after the midterms, I'm not

sure. I I think J Pal will move on once

Wors is in place uh to to his his his

future uh uh life. Uh but his his real

focus is on maintaining the the

independence of the of the institution.

Um and I think he will be in place until

Walsh is confirmed and perhaps a meeting

or two uh thereafter.

>> Rich, appreciate your insight on the

topic. Thank you, sir. Rich Clarity

there, the former Fed vice chair on this

Fed decision and the chairman's future.

If you are just joining us on the

program, welcome to the show. So

unchanged, the policy rate of the

Federal Reserve about 15 minutes ago.

Some descent, the vote 11 to1. That

descent came from an obvious place.

Governor Myerin voting for an interest

rate reduction for the projections. big

focus on what was happening with

inflation. They've lifted their outlook

for inflation for this year at least,

but left the median dot ultimately

unchanged, implying one rate cut from

this Federal Reserve for 2026.

>> To me, the most interesting takeaway is

what you said, which is this market

doesn't seem to care, even though this

is very much a dovish hold. This

actually is news in Fedland and yet the

market doesn't pay attention because

there's another game in town and it's

everything else in the world. And some

people might say, "Oh no, the adults

can't control this. They can't step in

and save us and the other people will

say we haven't had a free market in a

long time and this is what it looks like

and guess what it's a welcome uh a

welcome exercise and so those two sides

of the debate are playing out in market

>> we got a free market

>> well I mean that's the whole thing

ultimately too excited

>> I'm kind of excited about this I mean

that's kind of a nice thing not to have

the thumb on the scale all the time and

same story over and over again

>> it's a change

>> it's a change Stephanie Roth of Wolf

Research I can see how excited you are

not alone I've been waiting for that

moment for a long long time major moves

5% away from all time highs

>> even the Japanese market. It's how

exciting. Who knows?

>> They're actually trading the benchmark

in Japan.

>> They're trading. There's actually

traders.

>> Stephanie, I'm sorry. Stephanie Ra

research joins us now for more.

Stephanie, we need your reaction to the

decision and where you expect the

emphasis to be in this news conference.

>> Yeah, I mean the emphasis is going to be

on the reaction function provided that

energy prices end up staying longer. The

question is, are they going to end up

looking through this or do they

ultimately end up having to be dovish as

a result because growth will end up

slowing. And our own view is that

because the economy is so different

today versus 2022, they'll ultimately

have to be more doubbish as a result of

the the war in Iran rather than the

opposite. Otherwise, it tells you a

story of productivity and that growth is

actually going to be higher in the in

the future years. But then, you know,

nothing else changes. And the one thing

that we didn't talk about or that wasn't

talked about yet was was the longer run

uh dot shifting up a little bit. Well,

this to me, Stephanie, that I'm really

wondering about is how much does a more

dovish Fed enable something that looks

more like 1970s or more like 2022 and

what we saw with inflation and the read

through? Is that something of a concern

for you?

>> No, because the backdrop is so different

today versus say 2022. If you look at

2022, the unemployment rate was 37

heading to 35. Today it's 44. Hayroll

gains was growing at 600,000. Today

they're somewhere between 0 and 50,000

on average. The inflation backdrop drop

was different. At core inflation was 5

and a half. Today it's three. So the

idea that we're going to have a repeat

of 2022 seems like a very low likelihood

event. And therefore that's not

something I would expect the Fed to

react in that way because the the data

probably won't support a a reflationary

type of environment. Stephanie, given a

war, given what oil's doing, John

mentions it's 60 to basically 60 to 100

or even higher, we're still slaves to

the job market. And the answer is the

unemployment rate hasn't broken with the

war, with the distractions. How exposed

is this Fed into the summer?

Yeah, I mean I think they're going to be

in an environment over the summer where

base cases the unemployment rate is

probably steady, but they're going to be

looking at this most closely. That's

going to be the deciding factor between

whether they are able to cut probably

not at wor's first meeting. Maybe in

September or December, right?

>> And it's going to all come down to the

unemployment rate. Is it notably above

45 in which case they have a window to

be able to ease and if if not then it's

going to be tough or worse to get the

rest of the members on board. Bob,

synthesize Michael Ferohi's work on

this. Then the fact is the labor market

hasn't cracked yet. They have to wait,

don't they?

>> Um, I think that's part of it. I'm still

gobsmacked by the Fed's decision.

They're basically saying all of this

going on in the Middle East is a speed

bump. That yeah, inflation will tick up,

you know, 3/10 uh and 2/10 here and

there, uh but the economy will

accelerate, unemployment uh will stay

stable and it's off to the races. I just

don't see that. I think there is a real

impact uh to inflation and ultimately to

the economy and the labor market.

>> This is the heart of the matter, John.

This is the absolute heart of the matter

and everybody has to reccalibrate their

xaxis to how long is this going to go on

and then you get to demand destruction.

>> We mentioned this earlier and I think

it's important to keep going over it.

We've repriced a lot in this market.

We've repriced energy, put a big move

from the 60s out to triple digits. We've

repriced interest rates. We've taken out

a lot of easing for the Federal Reserve.

And we've priced in hikes in places like

the ECB, two of them, I think, for this

year now. Yet, we haven't repriced

growth. And the Fed hasn't either. And

I'm not just talking about where spot is

trading or the front month on the

futures curve. If you go out to December

and look at where December is traded

right now, we're close to 80. So we gone

from the 60s to close to 80s on the

December contract and the Federal

Reserve has lifted the outlook for

growth. What's driving that?

>> I I wonder how much momentum they think

is in the economy, how much AI and data

center spending is going on. um were

they surprised by the Delta earnings and

that you know sales are at a high

despite higher energy prices? I think

the reality is when you've had close to

a 50% hike in energy prices, it's a tax

on businesses and households and they

will respond by cutting back some of

their consumption.

>> We have the smartest viewers and I just

want to point that out. One of the

viewers just wrote in, we do and pointed

out that among the members, the actual

dots might say one thing, but the risk

to GDP downside included 14 members

versus eight prior at the December

meeting. The risk to the upside with 16

members for core PCE as well as the

unemployment rate that it was up from 12

and 13 members respectively. So that

stagflationary outcome still in the back

minds of so many of these Fed members,

they just aren't making this their base

case. So I just I don't understand Bob

and I guess that this is my question is

the reaction function essentially they

will hold pat even in this scenario or

do you have a sense of what the reaction

function is to true stagflation?

>> Well the bottom line is the market is

just looking through the Fed right here

and saying doesn't make sense don't get

it. Don't know what they were thinking.

The projections don't make sense to me

but I know where we are. There's a lot

of tension still in the Middle East.

It's yet to completely play out. I think

where we are now is about fair. It can

go either way from here. So, it's

completely dismissive of the FOM FOMC

statement.

>> Hey Stephanie, before you go, what's the

number one question for Chairman Pal

into this news conference?

>> Yeah, I mean the biggest question is

going to be provided energy prices are

elevated through the through much of the

summer, how are you going to think about

the the balance of risk? Is this going

to be something that you're going to,

you know, look through and do you expect

that growth is going to be lower as a

result or is this something that you're

worried about more similar to 2022 and

what are the balance of risks uh in your

mind in terms of how this could play

out?

>> Stephanie, good to see you as always.

Thanks for jumping on. Stephanie Roth

there of Wolf Research to build on the

conversation. Diane Swank of KPMG.

Diane, I'm going to use a quote of yours

to ask you the question. A dual mandate

or a dueling mandate? What have we got?

>> A dueling mandate. And I think that's a

real problem. I think the Fed is this

dovish sort of numbers don't add up. I

think I agree with that completely. A

dovish pause is not what I would expect.

I would have expected some people to

actually put in rate hikes in this

meeting and they didn't. And I think

there is a real issue about we saw rate

cuts in late 2024 to shore up the labor

market. We didn't get any jobs. We saw

rate cuts in late 2025 to shore up the

labor market. I don't think we're going

to get a lot of jobs from those. That

brings up the issue is is the problem in

the labor market more structural and

systemic, something that rate cuts alone

cannot cure and spur the demand for

workers on. If that's the case, if you

cut rates further, you're risking a more

persistent bout of inflation or worse, a

stagflationary scenario. And I think the

devil in the detail is in that

stagflation scenario. Also important is

that they raise their non-inflationary

rate. that is reflecting yes

productivity growth and the idea that

the economy can grow more robustly

without having in um with without having

inflation but that also means higher

non-inflationary rate which is an

important marker to put down before

Kevin Wars takes on as Fed chair since

he has argued that productivity growth

should lower that non-inflationary rate.

That is not what the Fed is saying and I

think that's very important. But I am

very concerned about we 5 years in we've

got consumers expecting more inflation

than they did in late 2024 and there

those expectations are going to rise

especially with salient prices like

prices at the pump going up and there's

already a long tale due to the problems

in the Middle East. Production idled is

not easily brought back online. It's

weeks to months and we're rolling supply

chains the world over. You create

scarcities that go below the destruction

in demand. That gives you stagflation.

>> Dan, is this the Fed meeting where

forward guidance just died?

>> Absolutely. We didn't have a lot of

forward guidance to begin with, but

absolutely. And I think you know what

really will be interesting in the

chairman's comments is what was the

debate in terms of growth. What went

into these numbers? How did the debate

fall out? I think the devil in the

details here is that there is a bit of a

stagflationary concern out there and

there should be.

>> Diane, there's a you know we we suffer

from three zip code scenario here in New

York City. You've got a much greater

national perspective. I take real issue

with a narrow part of America being

affected by $5 a gallon gas. How much of

America is going to be flat on their

back from some of these shocks?

>> Well, unfortunately or fortunately, we

do have fiscal stimulus right now and

that fiscal stimulus will help absorb

the shock instead of going into other

kinds of spending and that will help

households. uh tax refunds are showing

up in consumer bank accounts right now,

but the combination of fiscal stimulus

with remember inflation is accelerating

right now. We saw PCE accelerate. We saw

the PPI numbers today, the translation

of the PPI and the CPI for PCE for the

month of February hotter, especially on

course services. That's aside from

what's going on in terms of tariff-based

inflation. That is important right now

and I think that's getting lost in

translation but it does show up in the

devil and the details of those dots and

how the forecasts show up. You could

have had one very strong forecast push

up the GDP number within the group.

There are people who believe within the

administration that we'll get 5 to 6%

growth this year. That was their

forecast going in. If Steve Moran wrote

down a number like that that would have

raised the overall growth figure when in

fact the rest of the committee is seeing

a more stagflationary scenario. I do

think it's a doubbish pause that is a

bit disappointing right now given where

we're at. Even though I'm very worried

about the labor market, I just don't

think the Fed can cure what ails it. So

Diane, what do you think the emphasis?

Where do you think the emphasis will be

in this news conference with chairman

pow in about five minutes time?

>> I think the emphasis is going to be on

uncertainty and wait and see and that

will just sort of be where they are

right now and that they they don't know

where the next rate move is actually

going to be and I think that's the right

way to play it.

>> Dan Swank, Dan, always good to catch up

with you. Thanks for being with us. Dan

Swank there breaking down the Fed

decision. If you are just joining us,

welcome to the program. and the news

conference about 4 minutes away with the

chairman of the Federal Reserve down in

Washington DC. In any other time, at any

other moment, we'd be talking about the

penultimate meeting of the Federal

Reserve chair. But we have not spoken to

a single person today who thinks this is

the penultimate meeting of the Federal

Reserve chair. And most believe Chairman

Pal, including the former Fed vice

chair, is going to be sticking around

for at least a few more months.

>> Partly because we don't know when the

confirmation of the next FedEd chair is

going to be. And that ultimately lies

with the man from North Carolina, Tom

Tillis. Ultimately though, there is this

question about credibility for the Fed

continuity. I just wonder if he gets up

there and he says what we do doesn't

matter right now. As long as we don't

hike and as long as we don't cut that

much, we're not in the driver's seat. I

mean, ultimately this is their past to

say this is an economy that's moved on

from us, we are not in control. We are

watching it just like you.

>> Unspoken, John, will be the idea of the

recent election results, including

yesterday in Illinois. And I also point

out a set of allies saying no to the

president on uh this war and that Mr.

Powell representing the institution will

stay around more so than the last

meeting.

>> A big piece of this bullc case for this

economy and for this market has been tax

refunds. We hear that phrase get banded

around all the time on this program. Tax

refunds. Tax refunds. How big are these

tax refunds actually going to be? And

how are attitudes towards the economy

changing given the shock of the past few

weeks? Where will that money actually

go? Well, we're seeing it now when we

look at Chase deposit accounts. We're

seeing particularly the bottom couple

quintiles of earners see their deposit

balances start to go up a bit. But the

uncomfortable truth is they're now

paying that out again at the pump. And

we can't forget that businesses and

households were already paying a higher

tax because of tariffs on prices. And

now energy prices are going to create

yet another tax on their disposable

income.

>> Grandma, the squeeze is real. The energy

bills are severe and they were high

already and now they're getting higher.

>> You know, Delta and American were

perfect examples of how the economy is

doing pretty well and people are still

spending. The difference is that the

costs are getting that much higher. And

so the room that people have and that

companies have to do okay is getting

narrower and narrower. And the feds

watching this and they don't have the

silver uh bullet to really make this a

better situation.

>> I did scientific surveillance research

today

to Charles de Gaulle

>> was popping the two of us. Uh you could

easily do it for $7,000 and you're

enjoying it this morning. Just under

$11,000.

>> Are you pretending you don't fly

business class?

>> Over three. That's is that what you're

doing?

>> No, it's not premier. We're not doing

the first class thing. But business

class, I'm going to suggest is up at

least 20% instantly.

>> Instantly. Is that Polaris? Is that

United Business Class? Is that the front

of the plane?

>> I actually don't even know. Yes, I Yes,

actually I do. I remember going to

something a demonstration about it. Not

actually

not exactly experiencing it.

>> For everybody to know, we live in

different wells.

>> For everybody to know out in the world,

John and I are in steerage and you're on

the Gulf Stream.

>> That is such a load of

>> Nice one too. Hey Bob, before you go,

just a final word. About a minute away

from this news conference. What are you

looking for?

Um um looking for a couple things. I I

want to understand how they're thinking

about the war and the elevated risk to

both sides of their mandate. Um and then

secondly, I want to know how they got to

their forecast numbers. Um I think

Diane's right. The there needs to be

some explanation there. And the

explanation could be quite simple. It

could be well one member put in a 6%

growth rate. Okay. Well, let us know

that

>> we buy insurance for peace of mind, but

every year millions of claims are

denied, not because people did anything

wrong, but because their policies

quietly excluded what happened. Insurers

know every detail. Policy holders rarely

do. That's why My Policy Advocate

exists. For just 27 cents a day, their

platform reads your policies and

explains where you are vulnerable. They

don't sell insurance. They deliver

transparency. Before you trust your

policy to protect you, let my policy

advocate tell you what it really says.

Go to mypicolicyadvocate.com.

Travel smarter, not harder at America's

best value by Sinesta. With convenient

locations from coast to coast, and

valuep pack comfort at every turn. It's

a practical choice for road trips, quick

getaways, and everyday travel that keeps

things simple without sacrificing

comfort. And when you're a Sinesta

Travel Pass member, staying at America's

best value in means earning points

toward free nights, upgrades, and more

every time you stay. Go to sinesta.com

to book your stay and unlock the best

rates with Sinesta Travel Pass. Here

today, roam tomorrow. Join now at

sinesta.com. Terms and conditions apply.

These days, it seems like AI agents are

just about everywhere you turn, every

field, and every function. But without

identity, you can't trust they'll serve

your business instead of jeopardizing

it. Fortunately, Octa helps you get

identity right by securing your AI

agents identities, giving you a single

layer of control, a single standard of

trust. So whether an AI agent supports a

single user or your entire enterprise,

with Octa, you'll turn risk into

opportunity. Secure every agent, secure

any agent. Octa secures AI.