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Bitcoin passed the Saylor test

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Bitcoin passed the Saylor test

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387 segments

0:00

Bitcoin just had its best week since

0:03

March. And it seems that both

0:05

institutional and retail money are

0:07

tiptoeing back in as we have a few days

0:10

of sustained ETF inflows after a record

0:13

streak of outflows. We're going to be

0:15

talking about that in a whole lot of

0:17

things, Donald Trump, today on The Daily

0:20

Wolf. Let's go.

0:27

What is up, everybody? Welcome to The

0:28

Daily Wolf on Yahoo! Finance. I am your

0:31

host, Scott Melker, also known as The

0:33

Wolf of All Streets. And we're going to

0:35

spend the next 15 minutes diving into

0:38

the heap of news and trying to find a

0:40

little bit of signal amongst all the

0:42

noise. Now, yesterday I was wearing my

0:44

very patriotic red, white, and blue USA

0:46

jersey. You'll see that today I've

0:48

reverted to black as a funeral for the

0:51

United States men's national team and

0:53

for American football, which is no

0:56

longer called soccer. Once again, that

0:58

was an atrocious day, but now we can

1:00

move on and get back into the market.

1:04

So, first of all, here we go. Bitcoin

1:06

rises 7% in its best week since March

1:09

amid easing US inflation fears. I'm not

1:13

really buying the back half of that

1:16

title. Everybody wants to assign a

1:18

narrative to why Bitcoin is up. So,

1:20

first of all, let's be honest. It

1:22

bottomed near 58 and now we're trading

1:24

in the low 60s. This is not exactly a

1:27

massive moment to celebrate. We're still

1:29

sort of in the same range, trading right

1:31

around the 200-week moving average on

1:34

the weekly chart there. And as always,

1:37

you know, Bitcoin took a run at 64,000

1:40

and Crypto Twitter has already gone from

1:43

it's so over to we're so back, which is

1:45

usually historically the

1:46

precise moment that the universe gets

1:48

the folding chair and WWE smacks it

1:50

right over the back of our heads. So,

1:52

it's hard to get too excited. Now, what

1:53

I will say

1:55

that I'm impressed with is that the

1:57

market has absorbed sailor's selling so

2:00

incredibly well. So yesterday obviously

2:02

we reported on the fact that he had sold

2:04

216 millionish dollars worth of Bitcoin.

2:08

Of course as a Bitcoin he bought high

2:09

and sold low. We can call it tax loss

2:11

harvesting but everybody knows that

2:12

that's not the best investment or

2:14

trading strategy. But what he did do was

2:17

cover over three months of dividends for

2:19

all of his preferred offerings with a

2:22

single sale proving to the market that

2:23

by selling less than a half a percent of

2:25

his Bitcoin he can cover his obligations

2:28

for an entire quarter and I think that

2:29

the market liked that. STRC was up, MSTR

2:32

was up yesterday. Bitcoin was also up

2:35

yesterday and I think the bigger story

2:37

there not only proving that he can fund

2:39

the dividends with a small sale but the

2:41

market absorbed the worst case narrative

2:44

which was that Michael Saylor would

2:45

start selling or even that Michael

2:47

Saylor would stop buying. So I think it

2:50

is really interesting actually to see

2:52

the price action after that and highly

2:54

encouraging. Just to show you that BETF

2:56

Bitcoin BTC ETF flows right there. You

2:59

can see all these months right here, all

3:02

these days excuse me with the

3:03

parentheses negative negative negative

3:04

but but last Thursday 223 million in

3:07

flows and then yesterday 265

3:10

million in flows. So maybe things are

3:13

starting

3:14

to turn around. I think it's too early

3:16

to tell but we obviously have a bit of

3:18

cautious optimism in the market and

3:22

we're all here for that. So the next big

3:24

story is one that tracks a trend that

3:26

we've been talking about quite a lot

3:28

which is this rotation from Bitcoin into

3:30

AI and more specifically when you really

3:33

dig into it the rotation of Bitcoin

3:35

miners into AI. So this was a big story

3:38

yesterday. TeraWulf signs 19 billion

3:40

lease with Anthropic for AI

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infrastructure campus expects to bring

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400 megawatts of computing power online

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by 2028. Isn't that the number from the

3:51

Back to the Future? Those are gigawatts.

3:54

Get the car going fast enough

3:56

right into the future of AI though.

3:58

That's how this works. But this is a

4:00

trend that we've seen quite a lot of.

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This one actually

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absolutely huge if you take a look

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because it's a $19 billion contract for

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20 years basically just to host

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AI infrastructure instead of Bitcoin

4:13

mining infrastructure for a company

4:15

that's entire market cap was $12

4:17

billion.

4:18

So this is a bigger deal than the entire

4:22

value of TeraWulf. And this is a trend

4:24

that we've seen a lot of. So I believe

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we've seen 70 plus 70 billion plus

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dollars in AI compute contracts

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for

4:35

the artist formerly known as Bitcoin

4:37

miners. So this leaves a lot of question

4:39

marks, right? Because these are all

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publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies

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that have wholesale pivoted into a new

4:45

model because it's the next big thing

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and it's just far more profitable and

4:49

easier to do than Bitcoin mining. And

4:52

and you can see by looking at a chart of

4:53

Bitcoin hash rate, it's dropped

4:55

it's dropped massively since the highs

4:57

back in October. And a big story part of

5:00

that story obviously is this pivot into

5:02

AI from the miners. So

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difficulty will obviously adjust. People

5:08

will step in and take on that mining

5:09

capacity. But at the same time that

5:11

these miners are

5:13

wholesale moving over to AI, they're

5:16

also now selling Bitcoin and have ceased

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to be holders. So that's probably

5:21

provided a lot of pressure on the market

5:23

as they've been selling off their

5:24

Bitcoin to close debt and to fund this

5:26

AI infrastructure. And it's going to be

5:28

an interesting story to watch. But this

5:30

is actually a really big deal, I think,

5:32

for TeraWulf. And I really do think that

5:36

public Bitcoin miners are largely going

5:38

to become extinct. They're going to be

5:40

AI compute centers that occasionally

5:43

probably maybe decide to mine a little

5:47

bit of Bitcoin.

5:49

Now, this next story was a big one

5:52

reported yesterday that a lot of people

5:53

seem to miss, but I think it's a big

5:55

signal in the market right now. So,

5:57

Circle's USDC pulls ahead of Tether as

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stablecoin volume hits record 1.79

6:05

trillion dollars. So, this report not

6:08

just coming from some arbitrary source,

6:10

this is coming from Visa, who by the way

6:12

is also doing less transaction volume

6:15

than stablecoins. But, saying that 70%

6:19

of adjusted volume in the first quarter

6:24

uh was done by Circle USDC with only 25%

6:28

by Tether. Now, if you go back a few

6:30

years, Tether was 90%. I think 2020

6:33

Tether literally did 90% of all

6:34

stablecoin volume. So, not only right

6:36

now in actual usage of the stablecoin is

6:39

Circle and USDC eating their lunch, but

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you can see that there's a wholesale

6:43

shift right now in diversity of

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stablecoins that can be used as we see

6:48

more stablecoins being built out both

6:50

publicly and privately. So, really,

6:53

really interesting uh story here. Now, I

6:56

think the bigger story is that the

6:57

entire pie is exploding. As you saw that

6:59

number, June record 1.79

7:02

trillion dollars. Uh that's up 63%

7:06

month over month. Uh H1 8.82 trillion,

7:11

which is more than all of 20 24. If you

7:15

want to talk about where all of the

7:17

interest is coming, it's post Genius Act

7:19

into stablecoins, which are a faster,

7:22

cheaper, and better way to transact in

7:26

the United States dollar. So, obviously,

7:30

because of the regulatory environment

7:33

and the legislation for the Genius Act,

7:35

USDC, which is highly regulated and very

7:38

much under the microscope of the United

7:40

States government and its regulators has

7:42

been seeing increased adoption and usage

7:45

and obviously Tether has plans to come

7:48

more aggressively into the United States

7:50

and compete in that market. But you'll

7:52

remember last week I reported on OUSD,

7:55

Open USD, a consortium of 140

7:59

companies launching a stable coin.

8:01

Now you can see why. Now you can see why

8:03

the Visa's and the Mastercards and the

8:05

American Expresses and the Blackrocks

8:06

and the literally anyone who has any

8:09

interest in making money in payments are

8:12

all backing a new competitor because

8:14

Circle is absolutely eating their lunch

8:17

as the anointed one in the United States

8:19

and there's a lot of money to be made by

8:21

launching their own stable coin. Of

8:23

course that one as I told you is backed

8:24

by Stripe, their own payment company

8:28

uh from the acquisition of Bridge that

8:30

they recently did. The stable coin

8:32

market is going to continue to

8:35

absolutely explode. There is nothing

8:39

stopping this train. There will be more

8:41

competitors, but right now on actual

8:43

sheer transaction volume and usage,

8:46

forget trading and market cap, Circle

8:49

clearly winning.

8:51

Now, one of the biggest narratives that

8:53

we've had in the last 16 months uh since

8:56

Trump became president was the strategic

8:59

Bitcoin reserve. Obviously we talked

9:02

about that in the past. There was an

9:03

executive order saying that we would

9:04

have a strategic Bitcoin reserve. We

9:06

would commit to holding all of the

9:08

Bitcoin that we already had uh in the

9:11

government's wallets. We would also have

9:13

a digital asset stockpile of other

9:14

assets and commit not to sell them and

9:16

we would look at budget neutral ways to

9:19

add Bitcoin to that treasury. Well,

9:21

here's the story breaking today. Some

9:23

are painting it bullish, some are

9:25

painting it bearish.

9:26

Trump Bitcoin reserve faces hurdles as

9:28

departments seek control. So obviously

9:30

Bloomberg is taking a more bearish tilt

9:32

at this. And what they're reporting is

9:34

that there's basically a battle between

9:36

Treasury and Commerce, percent and

9:38

Letnick if you really uh want to dig

9:40

into that over who should control the

9:42

strategic Bitcoin reserve. The bullish

9:45

side is a lot of crypto media is

9:47

reporting on the very fact that we're

9:48

talking about a Bitcoin strategic

9:50

reserve, so it must be happening. That's

9:52

literally how the reporting is seemingly

9:54

structured. But right now the United

9:56

States holds approximately 300,000 give

10:00

or take Bitcoin, which is worth around

10:02

$21 billion.

10:04

Interestingly part of those executive

10:06

orders from the early days of the Trump

10:07

presidency were that we would get an

10:09

actual accounting on this.

10:12

We haven't. We have no idea, no audit,

10:14

much like Fort Knox and the gold. We

10:15

have no idea how much Bitcoin the US

10:17

government actually holds, but right now

10:19

we have an aggressive turf war between

10:21

Treasury and Commerce over who will

10:23

control it. Now interestingly, if we had

10:25

started buying Bitcoin when the reserve

10:27

was originally announced, we would have

10:29

been buying at 93, $95, $96,000. So if

10:33

we get started now here in the low 60s,

10:37

we could have a an accidental boon uh

10:40

for buying Bitcoin at much lower prices.

10:44

But I don't think anyone right now

10:45

expecting the United States government

10:47

to actually come in and start buying

10:50

Bitcoin.

10:51

Now the next Trump story,

10:53

which is a fun one, is

10:56

uh this one right here.

10:57

"I'm a big crypto guy." Trump fields

11:00

Bitcoin question as $1,000 Trump

11:01

accounts go live. So listen, Trump was

11:05

basically uh announcing the launch of

11:08

the Trump accounts, which I think are

11:10

absolutely brilliant. You know, kids

11:12

born between 2025 and 2028 can get

11:15

$1,000 into these investment accounts,

11:16

which are effectively, you know,

11:18

structured like retirement accounts. And

11:21

you know, they've shown the numbers of

11:22

how much money just by saving. I think

11:24

this is a great idea. We do not have

11:25

enough financial education in this

11:27

country and giving children a head start

11:29

is always a good thing. But of course,

11:31

because somebody had to ask it, a

11:32

reporter asked the president, "Any

11:34

chance Bitcoin goes into these these

11:36

accounts?" And his answer was,

11:38

"I'm a big crypto guy."

11:40

Which is less of a commitment and more

11:41

of a bumper sticker. I would put that on

11:43

my car, to be honest. Uh and then

11:45

probably get robbed.

11:48

Especially if I was in France. But yeah,

11:50

so listen, uh

11:52

I just want to talk about this because

11:53

then of course the media ran with the

11:55

fact that it was likely that Bitcoin was

11:57

going to be put into these accounts.

11:58

Literally illegal, can't be done.

12:01

Ignore that nonsense. Right?

12:03

Retirement accounts in general and then

12:05

these accounts, which are not exactly

12:07

retirement accounts, are very specific

12:09

about what can and cannot go into them.

12:11

We've already been having the battle

12:12

actually about Trump wanting Bitcoin to

12:14

go into 401(k)s, which is technically

12:16

allowed, but most 401(k) providers don't

12:19

allow it. Well, this is even more

12:22

specific with these because they have to

12:24

be effectively market tracking index

12:27

funds and ETFs. So in theory one day

12:29

they could change the law in Congress to

12:31

allow single asset ETFs or crypto or

12:35

anything like it to go into these

12:37

accounts, but right now it's literally

12:39

impossible. So when we talk about

12:41

separating signal from noise, this is

12:43

one of those things where A, the guy

12:45

didn't even say yes, he just said,

12:47

"I'm a big crypto guy." Which to be

12:48

fair, like you know, if I made $2.4

12:50

billion a year in crypto, I'd probably

12:53

have that bumper sticker, too, or say

12:55

the same thing. But this is not going to

12:57

happen.

12:58

Right? So I think you should cheer for

13:00

the Trump accounts. Think you should

13:01

sign your kids up. Absolutely take

13:03

advantage of the growth over time from a

13:06

very young age. Very compelling and

13:09

important, but yeah, it's not going to

13:11

be the place that you put your Bitcoin.

13:12

And now for the last story of the day,

13:14

if we're doing the clown show and the

13:16

noise, but which we have to do. Bonk,

13:19

one of the favored meme coins of

13:21

previous cycle, Dow loses 20 million in

13:23

governance attack, token falls 10%. So

13:25

we've talked about all kinds of and

13:27

crypto and all kinds of exploits and

13:29

problems. Turns out sometimes the actual

13:31

governance is the biggest problem. What

13:33

this guy basically did, he needed 1% of

13:35

the supply for a quorum to be able to

13:38

vote. He spent 4.4 million buying Bonk

13:41

and then basically voted to send the

13:43

entire 20 million dollar treasury to

13:46

himself. And only seven wallets decided

13:50

to jump in for that vote because nobody

13:52

cares anymore,

13:53

which is a 2.9% turnout. 99.9% yes cuz

13:57

they were obviously using Biden's auto

13:59

pen

14:00

to do the vote and 20 million dollars

14:03

auto drains. The question is, is this

14:05

theft

14:06

or is he using the rules? I mean,

14:08

obviously Bonk DAO chainalysis are

14:10

calling it an attack. There's law

14:12

enforcement involved, but what the guy

14:13

did was buy enough tokens to be able to

14:16

vote. Then he set the vote and while

14:19

everybody was asleep, the smart

14:21

contracts executed and sent him the

14:23

money that rightfully was his by the

14:25

vote. You can determine it

14:28

as you see fit, but clearly we still got

14:31

some problems. So, listen, we have a

14:33

cautious optimism in the market.

14:35

Bitcoin's slightly reversing ETF flows

14:37

coming in and once again watching stable

14:41

coins absolutely eat the lunch of Visa,

14:43

Mastercard, ACH and all other payment

14:47

networks. I will see you tomorrow for

14:49

the next Daily Wolf. Peace.

Interactive Summary

This episode of The Daily Wolf covers the latest trends in the cryptocurrency market, focusing on Bitcoin's recent price action, the shift of miners toward AI infrastructure, the dominance of USDC in the stablecoin market, and ongoing discussions regarding a potential strategic Bitcoin reserve and government-backed investment accounts.

Suggested questions

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