Bitcoin passed the Saylor test
387 segments
Bitcoin just had its best week since
March. And it seems that both
institutional and retail money are
tiptoeing back in as we have a few days
of sustained ETF inflows after a record
streak of outflows. We're going to be
talking about that in a whole lot of
things, Donald Trump, today on The Daily
Wolf. Let's go.
What is up, everybody? Welcome to The
Daily Wolf on Yahoo! Finance. I am your
host, Scott Melker, also known as The
Wolf of All Streets. And we're going to
spend the next 15 minutes diving into
the heap of news and trying to find a
little bit of signal amongst all the
noise. Now, yesterday I was wearing my
very patriotic red, white, and blue USA
jersey. You'll see that today I've
reverted to black as a funeral for the
United States men's national team and
for American football, which is no
longer called soccer. Once again, that
was an atrocious day, but now we can
move on and get back into the market.
So, first of all, here we go. Bitcoin
rises 7% in its best week since March
amid easing US inflation fears. I'm not
really buying the back half of that
title. Everybody wants to assign a
narrative to why Bitcoin is up. So,
first of all, let's be honest. It
bottomed near 58 and now we're trading
in the low 60s. This is not exactly a
massive moment to celebrate. We're still
sort of in the same range, trading right
around the 200-week moving average on
the weekly chart there. And as always,
you know, Bitcoin took a run at 64,000
and Crypto Twitter has already gone from
it's so over to we're so back, which is
usually historically the
precise moment that the universe gets
the folding chair and WWE smacks it
right over the back of our heads. So,
it's hard to get too excited. Now, what
I will say
that I'm impressed with is that the
market has absorbed sailor's selling so
incredibly well. So yesterday obviously
we reported on the fact that he had sold
216 millionish dollars worth of Bitcoin.
Of course as a Bitcoin he bought high
and sold low. We can call it tax loss
harvesting but everybody knows that
that's not the best investment or
trading strategy. But what he did do was
cover over three months of dividends for
all of his preferred offerings with a
single sale proving to the market that
by selling less than a half a percent of
his Bitcoin he can cover his obligations
for an entire quarter and I think that
the market liked that. STRC was up, MSTR
was up yesterday. Bitcoin was also up
yesterday and I think the bigger story
there not only proving that he can fund
the dividends with a small sale but the
market absorbed the worst case narrative
which was that Michael Saylor would
start selling or even that Michael
Saylor would stop buying. So I think it
is really interesting actually to see
the price action after that and highly
encouraging. Just to show you that BETF
Bitcoin BTC ETF flows right there. You
can see all these months right here, all
these days excuse me with the
parentheses negative negative negative
but but last Thursday 223 million in
flows and then yesterday 265
million in flows. So maybe things are
starting
to turn around. I think it's too early
to tell but we obviously have a bit of
cautious optimism in the market and
we're all here for that. So the next big
story is one that tracks a trend that
we've been talking about quite a lot
which is this rotation from Bitcoin into
AI and more specifically when you really
dig into it the rotation of Bitcoin
miners into AI. So this was a big story
yesterday. TeraWulf signs 19 billion
lease with Anthropic for AI
infrastructure campus expects to bring
400 megawatts of computing power online
by 2028. Isn't that the number from the
Back to the Future? Those are gigawatts.
Get the car going fast enough
right into the future of AI though.
That's how this works. But this is a
trend that we've seen quite a lot of.
This one actually
absolutely huge if you take a look
because it's a $19 billion contract for
20 years basically just to host
AI infrastructure instead of Bitcoin
mining infrastructure for a company
that's entire market cap was $12
billion.
So this is a bigger deal than the entire
value of TeraWulf. And this is a trend
that we've seen a lot of. So I believe
we've seen 70 plus 70 billion plus
dollars in AI compute contracts
for
the artist formerly known as Bitcoin
miners. So this leaves a lot of question
marks, right? Because these are all
publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies
that have wholesale pivoted into a new
model because it's the next big thing
and it's just far more profitable and
easier to do than Bitcoin mining. And
and you can see by looking at a chart of
Bitcoin hash rate, it's dropped
it's dropped massively since the highs
back in October. And a big story part of
that story obviously is this pivot into
AI from the miners. So
difficulty will obviously adjust. People
will step in and take on that mining
capacity. But at the same time that
these miners are
wholesale moving over to AI, they're
also now selling Bitcoin and have ceased
to be holders. So that's probably
provided a lot of pressure on the market
as they've been selling off their
Bitcoin to close debt and to fund this
AI infrastructure. And it's going to be
an interesting story to watch. But this
is actually a really big deal, I think,
for TeraWulf. And I really do think that
public Bitcoin miners are largely going
to become extinct. They're going to be
AI compute centers that occasionally
probably maybe decide to mine a little
bit of Bitcoin.
Now, this next story was a big one
reported yesterday that a lot of people
seem to miss, but I think it's a big
signal in the market right now. So,
Circle's USDC pulls ahead of Tether as
stablecoin volume hits record 1.79
trillion dollars. So, this report not
just coming from some arbitrary source,
this is coming from Visa, who by the way
is also doing less transaction volume
than stablecoins. But, saying that 70%
of adjusted volume in the first quarter
uh was done by Circle USDC with only 25%
by Tether. Now, if you go back a few
years, Tether was 90%. I think 2020
Tether literally did 90% of all
stablecoin volume. So, not only right
now in actual usage of the stablecoin is
Circle and USDC eating their lunch, but
you can see that there's a wholesale
shift right now in diversity of
stablecoins that can be used as we see
more stablecoins being built out both
publicly and privately. So, really,
really interesting uh story here. Now, I
think the bigger story is that the
entire pie is exploding. As you saw that
number, June record 1.79
trillion dollars. Uh that's up 63%
month over month. Uh H1 8.82 trillion,
which is more than all of 20 24. If you
want to talk about where all of the
interest is coming, it's post Genius Act
into stablecoins, which are a faster,
cheaper, and better way to transact in
the United States dollar. So, obviously,
because of the regulatory environment
and the legislation for the Genius Act,
USDC, which is highly regulated and very
much under the microscope of the United
States government and its regulators has
been seeing increased adoption and usage
and obviously Tether has plans to come
more aggressively into the United States
and compete in that market. But you'll
remember last week I reported on OUSD,
Open USD, a consortium of 140
companies launching a stable coin.
Now you can see why. Now you can see why
the Visa's and the Mastercards and the
American Expresses and the Blackrocks
and the literally anyone who has any
interest in making money in payments are
all backing a new competitor because
Circle is absolutely eating their lunch
as the anointed one in the United States
and there's a lot of money to be made by
launching their own stable coin. Of
course that one as I told you is backed
by Stripe, their own payment company
uh from the acquisition of Bridge that
they recently did. The stable coin
market is going to continue to
absolutely explode. There is nothing
stopping this train. There will be more
competitors, but right now on actual
sheer transaction volume and usage,
forget trading and market cap, Circle
clearly winning.
Now, one of the biggest narratives that
we've had in the last 16 months uh since
Trump became president was the strategic
Bitcoin reserve. Obviously we talked
about that in the past. There was an
executive order saying that we would
have a strategic Bitcoin reserve. We
would commit to holding all of the
Bitcoin that we already had uh in the
government's wallets. We would also have
a digital asset stockpile of other
assets and commit not to sell them and
we would look at budget neutral ways to
add Bitcoin to that treasury. Well,
here's the story breaking today. Some
are painting it bullish, some are
painting it bearish.
Trump Bitcoin reserve faces hurdles as
departments seek control. So obviously
Bloomberg is taking a more bearish tilt
at this. And what they're reporting is
that there's basically a battle between
Treasury and Commerce, percent and
Letnick if you really uh want to dig
into that over who should control the
strategic Bitcoin reserve. The bullish
side is a lot of crypto media is
reporting on the very fact that we're
talking about a Bitcoin strategic
reserve, so it must be happening. That's
literally how the reporting is seemingly
structured. But right now the United
States holds approximately 300,000 give
or take Bitcoin, which is worth around
$21 billion.
Interestingly part of those executive
orders from the early days of the Trump
presidency were that we would get an
actual accounting on this.
We haven't. We have no idea, no audit,
much like Fort Knox and the gold. We
have no idea how much Bitcoin the US
government actually holds, but right now
we have an aggressive turf war between
Treasury and Commerce over who will
control it. Now interestingly, if we had
started buying Bitcoin when the reserve
was originally announced, we would have
been buying at 93, $95, $96,000. So if
we get started now here in the low 60s,
we could have a an accidental boon uh
for buying Bitcoin at much lower prices.
But I don't think anyone right now
expecting the United States government
to actually come in and start buying
Bitcoin.
Now the next Trump story,
which is a fun one, is
uh this one right here.
"I'm a big crypto guy." Trump fields
Bitcoin question as $1,000 Trump
accounts go live. So listen, Trump was
basically uh announcing the launch of
the Trump accounts, which I think are
absolutely brilliant. You know, kids
born between 2025 and 2028 can get
$1,000 into these investment accounts,
which are effectively, you know,
structured like retirement accounts. And
you know, they've shown the numbers of
how much money just by saving. I think
this is a great idea. We do not have
enough financial education in this
country and giving children a head start
is always a good thing. But of course,
because somebody had to ask it, a
reporter asked the president, "Any
chance Bitcoin goes into these these
accounts?" And his answer was,
"I'm a big crypto guy."
Which is less of a commitment and more
of a bumper sticker. I would put that on
my car, to be honest. Uh and then
probably get robbed.
Especially if I was in France. But yeah,
so listen, uh
I just want to talk about this because
then of course the media ran with the
fact that it was likely that Bitcoin was
going to be put into these accounts.
Literally illegal, can't be done.
Ignore that nonsense. Right?
Retirement accounts in general and then
these accounts, which are not exactly
retirement accounts, are very specific
about what can and cannot go into them.
We've already been having the battle
actually about Trump wanting Bitcoin to
go into 401(k)s, which is technically
allowed, but most 401(k) providers don't
allow it. Well, this is even more
specific with these because they have to
be effectively market tracking index
funds and ETFs. So in theory one day
they could change the law in Congress to
allow single asset ETFs or crypto or
anything like it to go into these
accounts, but right now it's literally
impossible. So when we talk about
separating signal from noise, this is
one of those things where A, the guy
didn't even say yes, he just said,
"I'm a big crypto guy." Which to be
fair, like you know, if I made $2.4
billion a year in crypto, I'd probably
have that bumper sticker, too, or say
the same thing. But this is not going to
happen.
Right? So I think you should cheer for
the Trump accounts. Think you should
sign your kids up. Absolutely take
advantage of the growth over time from a
very young age. Very compelling and
important, but yeah, it's not going to
be the place that you put your Bitcoin.
And now for the last story of the day,
if we're doing the clown show and the
noise, but which we have to do. Bonk,
one of the favored meme coins of
previous cycle, Dow loses 20 million in
governance attack, token falls 10%. So
we've talked about all kinds of and
crypto and all kinds of exploits and
problems. Turns out sometimes the actual
governance is the biggest problem. What
this guy basically did, he needed 1% of
the supply for a quorum to be able to
vote. He spent 4.4 million buying Bonk
and then basically voted to send the
entire 20 million dollar treasury to
himself. And only seven wallets decided
to jump in for that vote because nobody
cares anymore,
which is a 2.9% turnout. 99.9% yes cuz
they were obviously using Biden's auto
pen
to do the vote and 20 million dollars
auto drains. The question is, is this
theft
or is he using the rules? I mean,
obviously Bonk DAO chainalysis are
calling it an attack. There's law
enforcement involved, but what the guy
did was buy enough tokens to be able to
vote. Then he set the vote and while
everybody was asleep, the smart
contracts executed and sent him the
money that rightfully was his by the
vote. You can determine it
as you see fit, but clearly we still got
some problems. So, listen, we have a
cautious optimism in the market.
Bitcoin's slightly reversing ETF flows
coming in and once again watching stable
coins absolutely eat the lunch of Visa,
Mastercard, ACH and all other payment
networks. I will see you tomorrow for
the next Daily Wolf. Peace.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
This episode of The Daily Wolf covers the latest trends in the cryptocurrency market, focusing on Bitcoin's recent price action, the shift of miners toward AI infrastructure, the dominance of USDC in the stablecoin market, and ongoing discussions regarding a potential strategic Bitcoin reserve and government-backed investment accounts.
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