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SpaceX Goes Public Tomorrow – Look Out Below

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SpaceX Goes Public Tomorrow – Look Out Below

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921 segments

0:00

I think it'll be very volatile and I

0:02

think that's going to add a lot of

0:03

volatility to the market because when

0:05

you don't have a valuation backdrop,

0:07

when you don't have comparables, then to

0:09

your point, it can trade at 95 times

0:11

revenue. It can trade at 50 times. It

0:13

can trade at 150 times. There's no rhyme

0:15

or reason. It really is about how many

0:18

people buy into that vision and continue

0:21

to hold on to that vision. And there's

0:23

the excitement that we're going to have

0:25

tomorrow. There's going to be the

0:27

lockups, [music] very significant

0:28

lockups after that. There's going to be

0:30

index inclusions. There's going to be

0:32

index non-inclusions. We would should

0:34

expect more volatility in this [music]

0:37

stock than anything we've seen in a

0:39

stock of this size. And again, it's

0:41

going to also have a big impact on the

0:43

market. It already has.

0:50

Welcome to Profit Markets. I'm Edson. It

0:52

is June 11th. Let's check in on

0:54

yesterday's market vitals. The major

0:57

indices all tumbled more than 1 and a.5%

1:00

after President Trump expressed

1:02

frustration that negotiations with Iran

1:04

were taking too long. The S&P 500 hit a

1:07

5we low and then after hours the US

1:10

began striking multiple targets in Iran

1:14

at which point the price of Brent crude

1:17

climbed. Meanwhile, the yield on 10ear

1:19

treasuries was mostly stable despite the

1:22

hottest inflation report in 3 years.

1:25

More on that later. Okay, what else is

1:29

happening?

1:32

It is a monumental week for the AI

1:35

industry. SpaceX is expected to price

1:37

tonight and will begin trading on the

1:39

NASDAQ tomorrow in what will be the

1:41

largest IPO of all time. Currently,

1:43

shares for SpaceX are more than four

1:45

times overs subscribed, implying at

1:47

least $300 billion in investor demand.

1:50

Meanwhile, OpenAI filed confidentially

1:52

for its IPO earlier this week, hot on

1:55

the tail of anthropic. So, very soon,

1:58

the public markets are going to get an

2:00

unprecedented look into the business of

2:02

AI. In the meantime, we got a preview of

2:05

investor sentiment on AI from Oracle's

2:08

earnings last night, which sent the

2:10

stock plummeting 8%. For more on what is

2:13

next for the AI trade and also his

2:16

thoughts on the SpaceX IPO, we are

2:18

speaking with Gil Lura, head of

2:21

technology research at DAD Davidson.

2:24

Gil, it's good to see you. An

2:25

unbelievably important week for the

2:28

markets here. And I think we got to

2:30

start with SpaceX. $1.77 trillion

2:34

valuation. It's priced at 95 times

2:37

sales. I've made my opinion on the

2:40

matter quite known to our audience. I

2:42

think it's overvalued, but I'd love to

2:44

hear your views.

2:45

>> My view is going to be more descriptive

2:48

than prescriptive. Uh when I've been

2:50

following Elon Musk companies for uh

2:53

more than a decade and they rarely trade

2:57

on fundamentals. They rarely trade on

2:59

the same valuation metrics as other

3:02

companies. And I've thought about why

3:04

that is. And I think the answer is that

3:06

Elon has this trick that he plays. He

3:08

has the business that he has today. the

3:11

business that's on the come and then the

3:13

big dream business. So for Tesla, the

3:16

business he has today is selling cars.

3:18

The business that's on the come is robo

3:20

taxi and then somewhere down the line

3:23

there's Optimus robots running around.

3:25

The equivalence for SpaceX is right now

3:28

we have Starlink. Soon we'll have

3:31

orbital data centers and then eventually

3:33

we're putting a million people on Mars,

3:36

right? And that allows him to get away

3:38

from having his companies valued on the

3:41

fundamentals of what he has today

3:43

because there's always something bigger

3:45

coming near and then something even

3:47

bigger coming long term. And that's how

3:50

he does it with Tesla and he's been

3:52

successful doing it with Tesla for a

3:54

long time and now it seems to be working

3:56

for SpaceX. Having said all that, I

3:59

think it's great that you're cautioning

4:01

people ahead of tomorrow. Uh buyer

4:04

beware. Yeah, I mean I I guess I'm

4:08

skeptical how many people will actually

4:10

believe in that story and the putting

4:13

people on Mars. I mean, it's one thing

4:14

to say we're going to put these humanoid

4:16

robots into the world, which by the way,

4:19

at least they they've shown some models

4:21

of how it would look. Um, but putting

4:24

people on Mars, to me, there's a it

4:26

starts to go from optimism to delusion.

4:29

And I'm skeptical of how many people

4:31

actually believe this thing I is

4:33

actually going to happen. And I guess my

4:37

thought is that we're going to see a lot

4:39

of selling activity at least when these

4:41

lockups start to expire. So how do you

4:44

think the stock will trade over the

4:46

course of the day and I guess in in the

4:49

in the next weeks and months as well? I

4:51

think it'll be very volatile and I think

4:53

that's going to add a lot of volatility

4:55

to the market because when you don't

4:57

have a valuation backdrop, when you

4:59

don't have comparables, then to your

5:01

point, it can trade at 95 times revenue.

5:03

It can trade at 50 times. It can trade

5:04

at 150 times. There's no rhyme or

5:07

reason. It really is about how many

5:09

people buy into that vision and continue

5:12

to hold on to that vision. And there's

5:15

the excitement that we're going to have

5:16

tomorrow. There's going to be the

5:18

lockups, very significant lockups after

5:20

that. There's going to be index

5:22

inclusions. There's going to be index

5:24

non-inclusions. We would should expect

5:26

more volatility in this stock than

5:29

anything we've seen in a stock of this

5:31

size. And again, it's going to also have

5:34

a big impact on the market. It already

5:36

has. We've seen a lot of capital taken

5:39

out of a lot of other technology stocks,

5:41

a lot of the the rest of the AI trade in

5:44

order to fund this because if they're

5:46

issuing 75 billion and it's four times

5:48

over subscribed, that means investors

5:51

have $300 billion ready to invest.

5:54

They're not going to get their full

5:56

allocation, but they have to have it in

5:58

cash just in case they do. So, a lot of

6:01

capital's already been pulled out of the

6:03

market and we're going to have to see

6:05

what happens in order to perpetuate

6:06

this.

6:07

>> Yes. Plus, you've got Open AI coming up.

6:10

You've got Anthropic coming up. You've

6:12

got Google's $85 billion equity

6:15

offering. You've got Meta supposedly

6:18

considering a similar thing. You've got

6:20

Oracle, which we could get into, which

6:23

just announced a $20 billion equity

6:25

offering. I believe $20 billion in debt

6:28

as well. It's starting to get to the

6:30

point where there is so much stock being

6:32

issued into the markets, injected into

6:34

the markets. I'm not totally sure if

6:37

people even have the money to buy all of

6:40

this stuff. And if they don't, then

6:42

they're going to have to sell their

6:44

existing positions. It sounds like you

6:46

believe that that is what is already

6:48

happening. And that might describe why

6:50

we've seen some of the draw downs in

6:52

some of the larger tech names over the

6:54

past few days. Is that what's going to

6:56

happen? And do you think it could get I

6:58

guess worse?

6:59

>> Yeah, there's going to be a lot of

7:01

sloshing around of capital. Uh and and

7:03

the reason is part of the reason and

7:06

this is going to happen even more so

7:07

when open AI and anthropic go public

7:10

because SpaceX is bigger than AI, right?

7:12

It's about space exploration and

7:13

expanding consciousness into the stars.

7:15

A literal quote from the S1. Um but open

7:19

AI and anthropic are the pure plays on

7:21

AI. So if so far in the market you've

7:24

invested every other way in AI by buying

7:27

semis and optical and nuclear and

7:29

quantum and all these other ways to

7:31

invest indirectly in AI. Now you're

7:34

going to get a chance to invest directly

7:35

in AI. And so again a lot of capital is

7:38

going to be pulled from the rest of the

7:40

AI trade into open AI and anthropic. And

7:44

part of this is a race because you

7:46

mentioned the mega caps are going to the

7:48

capital markets. These three IPOs are

7:50

happening. Each of them wants tens of

7:52

billions, maybe even a hundred billion

7:54

dollars to raise. There's a finite

7:56

amount of capital that could come out of

7:58

everything else. And so to some extent,

8:00

this is a race. I think when we heard

8:02

open what OpenAI said when they filed

8:05

confidentially is we'd rather stay

8:07

private but we understand that we may

8:10

need to go public which is code for we

8:12

may need to beat anthropic out or at

8:15

least be soon after anthropic because we

8:17

don't want them to drive a narrative to

8:20

drive how disclosures happen what

8:22

metrics get reported. So a rush to

8:25

capital right now from all these big

8:27

players.

8:28

>> Yes. which implies something which seems

8:31

to me to be quite important, which is if

8:34

they're racing to sell now, that's

8:37

because they believe if they sell later,

8:39

there will be less available capital and

8:42

they won't be able to to command the

8:44

prices at which they would like to sell

8:46

today. So SpaceX seems to have timed it

8:48

great. But the further you go down the

8:51

line that it seems that like these CEOs

8:53

like Sam Alman believe there might not

8:56

be as much capital available later down

8:58

the line which makes me feel a little

9:00

bit bearish to be honest. It makes me

9:03

think that maybe we're at the top. They

9:06

think that now is the time to sell

9:08

clearly because that's what they're

9:09

doing. It makes me think maybe look out

9:13

below. What do you think about that

9:15

thesis that potentially this IPO race,

9:19

this IPO mania could signal the top, at

9:22

least for the tech sector?

9:24

>> I'm a little bit more optimistic from

9:26

the overall perspective because I

9:28

actually think the AI models are very

9:30

powerful and they're getting a lot

9:31

better that the folks that have been

9:34

using Fable from uh Anthropic over the

9:36

last couple days are saying that's

9:37

another big leap forward and we're

9:39

already getting a lot of good usage from

9:41

the other AI models. At the end of the

9:42

day, this is what matters. Are consumers

9:44

going to pay subscriptions to for AI?

9:47

Are companies going to pay for the

9:49

tokens coming from these AI models? As

9:51

long as that happens, we're going to

9:53

continue to see growth. What these

9:55

companies are doing, they're racing to

9:57

capital. It's not necessarily that

9:59

they're saying that their valuations are

10:00

peaking. They're saying what you said

10:02

earlier, which is if I don't get the

10:04

capital now, it may not be around later

10:06

because everybody else will have stood

10:08

in line first. This is a game of kings

10:11

and queens. You can't participate in AI

10:14

without tens of billions and hundreds of

10:16

billions of dollars. And if you think

10:18

that the couple's going to run out at

10:19

some point, you want to be early. By the

10:21

way, also compliments to Google for for

10:24

being early with the very big fund raise

10:26

this week. And and again, I wouldn't

10:28

expect Amazon and Microsoft to to linger

10:30

in the background. They understand this

10:32

is a race. they understand that they're

10:35

starting to exhaust their operating cash

10:37

flow and they will need resources in

10:39

order to keep uh building the AI compute

10:42

data centers.

10:43

>> Uh final question and then we'll let you

10:45

go and I don't know if you're going to

10:46

answer it because you didn't quite

10:48

answer it before. Do you think SpaceX is

10:50

overvalued or undervalued?

10:51

>> I I try not to do that with the Elon

10:54

companies because I don't think their

10:55

valuation has ever made sense. It's

10:58

never been had anything to do with

11:00

fundamentals. So if people are buying a

11:03

dream and a story and hope and and

11:07

sometimes that works out. It sure did

11:08

work out for Tesla holders that bought

11:10

the stock 15 years ago. It did. It did

11:13

indeed. All right. Gila, head of

11:15

technology research at DA Davidson. Gil,

11:17

thank you so much. Appreciate your time.

11:19

>> Thank you. We'll be right back. And if

11:21

you're enjoying the show, be sure to

11:23

subscribe to the Prof Markets YouTube

11:25

channel at the link below.

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[music]

12:41

We're back with Profit Markets.

12:44

Inflation rose 4.2% 2% in May from a

12:47

year earlier, the hottest reading in 3

12:50

years. Fuel oil is up nearly 60% from a

12:54

year earlier, and airfare is up 27%.

12:58

And for the second straight month, real

13:00

wages fell, meaning prices are rising

13:03

faster than paychecks. The report has

13:05

investors rethinking the [music] Fed's

13:07

path ahead. The odds of a rate hike

13:10

before the end of the year are now

13:11

around 50%. [music]

13:13

on Khi. Joining us to discuss this

13:16

inflation report, we are speaking with

13:17

our friend Mark Zandandy, chief

13:19

economist at Moody's Analytics. Marks,

13:22

thank you for joining me on the show.

13:24

It's always good to see you. I guess my

13:26

first question here, 4.2%.

13:29

I mean, this number is staggering to me.

13:33

Seems like it's all Iran. Is that right?

13:36

>> Uh Ed, good to be with you. No, it's

13:38

more than Iran. I mean, obviously Iran's

13:39

a big part of it. uh the bulk of the in

13:42

of the inflation acceleration is energy

13:44

prices. Uh but it goes to the tariffs.

13:46

There's still some tariff pass through.

13:48

It goes to the restrictive immigration

13:50

policy which is uh having an impact on

13:53

different industries and uh causing

13:55

sticky service price inflation and also

13:58

AI artificial intelligence. It AI is

14:01

juicing up demand you know the data

14:03

center infrastructure buildout consumer

14:06

spending because of the wealth effects.

14:09

uh but it's not lifting supply at least

14:11

not yet to any significant degree. The

14:12

productivity boost so far has been

14:14

pretty small. So more demand not as much

14:17

supply that adds to inflation. You can

14:18

see in electricity prices you can see it

14:20

on chip prices. So there's a lot of

14:22

stuff going on here. Inflation is up for

14:24

a lot of different reasons but the bulk

14:25

of it is is the Iran war.

14:27

>> I guess the next question is how long is

14:29

this going to last? I mean it's been

14:31

going up and up and up. If we stick

14:33

around at 4.2% 2%. I mean, we're over

14:37

two percentage points above the Fed's

14:40

target rate. This problem only seems to

14:43

be getting worse. And I think the

14:45

question on investors minds is how long

14:48

is this going to persist?

14:50

>> Well, it does depend on the war, right?

14:52

I mean, if uh if the war is kind of uh

14:56

close to peaking, winding down here, and

14:58

oil prices are not going any higher,

15:00

they're going they're around 100 bucks a

15:02

barrel, if that's where they stay, come

15:04

in a little bit, then the worst of the

15:05

inflation is behind us. But, you know,

15:08

there's no going back to the kind of 2%

15:10

inflation rate that the Fed would

15:12

consider to be appropriate, you know,

15:15

comfortable for a long time. I mean,

15:17

when I say a long time, Ed, we'll be

15:19

talking a year from now, inflation will

15:20

still be above target. Maybe two years

15:22

from now, if even if everything sticks

15:24

to script, including the Iran war

15:26

winding down. So, this is, you know, we

15:28

might be past the worst of it, but we're

15:29

not getting back to where we were

15:30

anytime soon. Do you think it will get

15:33

worse? This is the this is the thing

15:34

that I'm not sure what to expect. I

15:36

mean, we saw back in 22, we saw a

15:39

similar thing of inflation kind of

15:41

ripped back up. It went as high as 8 9%.

15:44

It got really bad. I mean, how much

15:46

worse do you expect it will get in this

15:49

round of inflation?

15:50

>> Well, I do expect the president to come

15:52

to terms with the Iranians and open up

15:54

the straight and get production, oil

15:56

production ramping up back up again and

15:58

oil prices moving south again. So, I

16:00

think that's the most likely scenario,

16:01

but as you as you, you know, were

16:03

alluding to, there's a gazillion

16:05

different scenarios here. Uh, and uh

16:07

almost all of them are worse than the

16:09

baseline, you know, inflation being

16:11

higher for longer. The one thing I do

16:13

think that we need to watch though to

16:14

answer your question is inflation

16:16

expectations. I mean if uh expectations

16:19

continue to uh for inflation continue to

16:22

rise uh particularly bond market

16:24

expectations then the risk is that this

16:26

inflation becomes more persistent more

16:27

entrenched and obviously has big

16:30

implications for what the Fed's going to

16:31

do. So so far you know inflation

16:33

expectations they're on the high side of

16:35

where I think the Fed would feel

16:36

comfortable but they haven't kind of

16:37

breached you know up to the upside. But

16:39

that's something to watch uh to to

16:40

answer your question.

16:41

>> Just to again theory this out like let's

16:44

imagine a world where Trump does not

16:46

figure out how to negotiate with Iran.

16:49

The straight remains closed or the

16:51

situation persists as it is. It's hard

16:53

to tell whether it's closed or open or

16:55

who's blockading what. Point is not

16:57

going great over there. That's all we

16:59

know. If it remains

17:02

as is, call it for the next 6 9 12

17:07

months, does the number get worse and

17:10

worse and worse or do you expect that it

17:13

will plateau at some point?

17:15

>> No, that's a pretty ugly scenario

17:17

because we're running out of

17:18

inventories. I mean, you know, global

17:20

inventories of oil have been being

17:22

significantly drawn down. I think you

17:23

have to go back to the early 80s to find

17:25

inventories as low as they are today.

17:27

And compared to the size of the economy,

17:29

we have to go back even further. So

17:30

there's just no inventory. And if uh we

17:34

don't see a resolution to the war, if

17:35

the straight doesn't open, if production

17:37

doesn't pick up, those inventories are

17:38

going to get to a place where we're

17:39

going to start seeing actual shortages,

17:41

physical shortages. Maybe not in the

17:42

United States because we produce a lot

17:43

of oil. We produce as much oil as we

17:45

consume, but in other parts of the

17:47

world. And I think at that point,

17:48

traders and everyone else would come to

17:51

the conclusion that, well, this isn't

17:52

going to come to a quick end. You know,

17:54

we got a problem here. We need much

17:55

higher oil prices to equate demand with

17:58

the reduced supply and that means much

18:00

higher prices and that means much higher

18:02

inflation and that that's a scenario

18:04

where you do get inflation expectations

18:06

you know breaching the upper limits of

18:08

what the Fed would feel comfortable with

18:09

and that's a pretty dark scenario but

18:11

clearly a scenario with a pro a

18:14

meaningful probability attached to it.

18:16

>> In other words, it sounds like almost

18:18

all of this rests on Trump's ability to

18:20

negotiate a deal with Iran. It sounds

18:23

like you are somewhat confident that he

18:26

will pull that off in the near to medium

18:30

term. I guess my question is why do you

18:32

feel that way?

18:33

>> Well, you know, the president, you know,

18:35

whatever you think of him, the one thing

18:37

you can say is that, you know, he uh if

18:39

things aren't working out in the way he

18:41

wants them to, he'll pivot 180 degrees,

18:44

declare victory, and move on. At least

18:45

that's been what he's done so far. Uh,

18:48

so I applying the same kind of logic to

18:51

my thinking around what he's going to do

18:53

here. He's desperately obviously trying

18:55

to figure out a way to wind this thing

18:58

down, declare victory, and move on. So

19:00

hopefully he finds that sooner rather

19:01

than later. Otherwise, we're going to be

19:03

in a boatload of hurt. And you know that

19:05

the scenario where he doesn't come to

19:07

terms in the next few weeks, next month

19:09

or so, you know, that's that's a

19:11

recession scenario, a stagflation

19:12

recession scenario. Yeah, I I personally

19:15

don't feel so optimistic about it, but

19:17

part of it is something some of the

19:20

things that he said about he's not

19:21

worried about it. And then he also said

19:22

this thing about inflation yesterday. We

19:25

have a clip of of what he said. He was

19:27

asked about this inflation report. I'm

19:30

just going to play this clip and I'd

19:31

love to get your reactions.

19:33

>> I love the inflation. You know why?

19:35

Because as soon as this war is over, you

19:38

know, I can say it now. Something you

19:40

didn't know. Do you know we've been

19:41

taking out millions of barrels of oil?

19:46

Nobody knows it. You know who doesn't

19:47

know about it? Iran until right now.

19:50

>> So Trump says he loves inflation because

19:53

they're taking barrels out.

19:55

>> I don't fully understand what he's

19:57

saying. Is there any way to make sense

19:59

of what he's saying?

20:00

>> Uh if you can't make make sense of it,

20:02

and I don't think I can. I I certainly

20:04

can't. I'm not sure what he's talking

20:06

about. I mean, I don't know. There's

20:08

nothing worse than inflation on every

20:09

level. I mean, uh, you know, it's it's

20:12

bad for consumers, bad for households,

20:15

it's bad for businesses, it's it's bad

20:17

for investors, it's, uh, it's bad for

20:20

the Federal Reserve Board. I it's a

20:22

lose-lose lose lose. So, I I don't know.

20:24

I I don't get it. Uh, but I I'm not sure

20:28

I I don't know that I attach a whole lot

20:29

of weight to that and, you know, and say

20:31

that that's what he actually believes.

20:33

You know, I'm not sure that's the case.

20:35

>> He's just saying what he says. not hard

20:38

to make meaning out of anything that he

20:39

says. Okay, [music] Mark Zandandy, chief

20:41

economist at Moody's Analytics. Mark,

20:43

thank you for joining us on Profy

20:45

Markets.

20:45

>> Anytime, Ed, thanks so much.

20:48

>> We'll be right back. And if you're

20:49

enjoying the show, be sure to subscribe

20:51

to the ProfG Markets YouTube channel at

20:54

the link below.

20:56

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22:01

We're back with Profy Markets.

22:05

Apple has finally shown up to the AI

22:07

race, but it might be too little too

22:10

late. At its Worldwide Developers

22:11

Conference on Monday, the company

22:13

unveiled Siri AI. The updated assistant

22:17

will be powered by Google's Gemini.

22:19

However, Siri AI has no firm release

22:22

date and it won't be available in the EU

22:25

or in China when it launches. Apple

22:27

stock hit a record high during the

22:29

keynote address on Monday, but it

22:31

quickly reversed course and since then

22:33

shares have shed [music] more than 7%.

22:36

So, here to help us break down Siri AI

22:39

and what it means for investors, we're

22:40

speaking with Alex Heath, author of the

22:43

Sources Newsletter and co-host of the

22:45

Access podcast. And Alex has been at the

22:48

Worldwide Developers Conference. Alex,

22:50

good to see you. Thank you for joining

22:51

us. The thing that jumps out to me here

22:53

is the fact that Apple comes out with

22:56

this AI product, it was supposed to be

22:59

exciting. It was supposed to inspire

23:01

confidence in investors and the stock

23:04

has shed more than 7% of its value. So,

23:07

we'll get into that. But what did we

23:09

learn at this conference and what do we

23:11

know about Siri AI?

23:13

>> Yeah, May I don't know. I'm I'm not an

23:15

expert on this. Maybe the reason for the

23:17

sell-off is that this is kind of what

23:20

they showed off two years ago. If folks

23:22

remember, they had this glitzy marketing

23:25

push around what Siri was going to be.

23:27

There were a bunch of TV commercials.

23:30

They even got sued over false

23:32

advertising around this, I believe, and

23:34

they never shipped it. And I think what

23:36

we saw uh what I saw at Apple when I was

23:39

there a few days ago was essentially

23:41

that vision of a more agentic theory

23:45

that can actually understand and connect

23:47

dots between data on your Apple device.

23:51

And they have made a meaningful

23:53

improvement there. Like there's no

23:55

question that this is a more capable

23:57

Siri. Is it anywhere near as capable as

24:00

what we're seeing from Anthropic, right,

24:03

which just put out its mythos class

24:06

model Fable this week or where chatbt is

24:09

going and where Codeex is going. No. Uh

24:13

it's nowhere near that. And and also I

24:15

think people were unclear about the

24:18

level of integration that Apple was

24:20

going to have with Google and Gemini,

24:22

right? There was all this reporting

24:24

going into dubdubdub dubdubdub which is

24:26

what Apple calls it dubdubdub uh about

24:29

how much Google would be powering the

24:31

new Siri and it turns out they are but

24:33

what Apple's essentially doing is a

24:36

bunch of distillation on top of Google's

24:39

models and post training and and

24:41

customization where they can essentially

24:44

ingest Google's model and kind of do

24:46

what they want with it. And so it's not

24:48

like Gemini in the essence of how

24:50

someone would experience Gemini in a

24:52

Google surface or on Android is what's

24:54

actually underneath Siri. It's actually

24:56

many steps removed from what you'd

24:58

experience on a Google surface. Uh which

25:01

means that Apple's doing a lot of its

25:03

own work around that. And I think people

25:04

are still, you know, skeptical that

25:06

Apple can pull it together here and and

25:10

whether um they can catch up and maybe

25:13

they don't feel like they need to. That

25:14

was kind of the message I got from

25:16

executives there at Apple Park was they

25:19

think it's early. They think all this

25:21

Asian hype is mostly that still hype uh

25:25

brittle, not really working. Certainly

25:27

not working at scale on a platform like

25:30

Apple with, you know, billions of users.

25:32

Uh but you saw them take, you know,

25:34

little I would say inch forward steps

25:37

towards a more capable series.

25:39

Certainly,

25:39

>> it seems like Wall Street was generally

25:42

underwhelmed by their AI integration

25:45

here, which at the time when AI is

25:48

everything to investors, that seems like

25:50

a a really bad thing to underwhelm with

25:53

your AI product release. Was that your

25:56

reaction? I mean, you say that they made

25:58

like a meaningful improvement, but did

26:01

you find it personally underwhelming as

26:03

someone who covers this stuff regularly?

26:05

>> Well, yeah. I mean, here's the thing.

26:06

The bar with Siri is so low. Like I

26:08

don't know about you, I don't trust Siri

26:10

with anything other than like setting a

26:12

timer. In fact, Siri for me is

26:14

frequently the thing that I'm annoyed by

26:15

because it's accidentally

26:17

uh sending a text to someone when I

26:19

don't want it to. That's usually my

26:21

experience with Siri.

26:22

>> I turn it off. I don't want to use it.

26:24

>> So to improve beyond that is not a huge

26:26

bar, right? It's like you're not

26:28

accidentally texting someone you meant

26:30

to just say aloud to someone in a room.

26:32

That said, they have built this new, you

26:36

know, I was in this uh this Q&A that

26:39

exact said after the keynote, which by

26:40

the way, Apple's never done. They've

26:42

never done an on there press Q&A after a

26:44

keynote, which I think goes to show the

26:46

level of uh uh concern they had about

26:48

how all this was going to be

26:49

interpreted. And they were talking about

26:51

how the new foundation of Siri is

26:54

modern, adaptable. They use the word

26:56

expandable when asked about agents which

26:59

I think suggests that they're you know

27:01

yes the Siri we're seeing now this new

27:04

Siri is is not it's like chatbt from 2

27:07

years ago but the foundation of it is

27:10

finally a stack that is something they

27:12

can quickly adapt as they see fit. I I

27:15

saw an investor um after the keynote uh

27:18

at Apple Park who made the very smart

27:21

observation that Apple has essentially

27:23

turned Siri into a harness and the

27:26

models underneath are flexible and

27:28

replaceable and swappable. Right. Right

27:30

now it's Google. Uh I don't think it

27:32

will ever be open AI again by the way. I

27:34

think that partnership is on the outs. I

27:36

wrote about that on sources. But maybe

27:38

one day it's claude. Maybe it's one day

27:40

one day it's an open- source model that

27:42

they've distilled on. Maybe it's their

27:44

own fully, you know, frontier Apple

27:46

models, which they are still investing

27:48

in their own models, especially on

27:49

device. But yeah, they're they're not

27:51

they're nowhere near where the state of

27:53

current AI tools are, right? The new

27:54

Siri doesn't have memory. It can't

27:56

remember things across different

27:58

conversations. It forgets every time,

28:00

which if you're using cloud and chatbt

28:02

like we are, that's kind of wild in

28:04

2026. Um, and you know, I think that's

28:07

partly because maybe the technical

28:09

foundation isn't there, but also because

28:10

Apple's really concerned about the

28:13

privacy of this stuff and the branding

28:15

risk of it. And maybe we'll have a

28:18

Cambridge Analytica moment around AI. I

28:21

don't think it's happened quite yet, but

28:22

I think they're worried about that.

28:24

[snorts] Um, and so they're taking, you

28:27

know, small steps, but I think setting

28:29

themselves up in a way where they could

28:31

lean in aggressively when they feel like

28:32

the time is right. I mean, I've said

28:34

this before, I think, on the show. Until

28:36

people stop buying iPhones because of

28:38

AI, Apple's going to do just fine. And

28:40

in fact, in meetings I had with

28:42

executives, they were touting, you know,

28:43

openclaw, you know, driving up Mac Mini

28:46

sales, right? So, they're a hardware

28:48

layer beneficiary of AI and agents right

28:51

now, even though they don't have a great

28:53

software experience. just based on what

28:56

you said about how they're thinking

28:57

about agentic AI, how they're thinking

29:00

they you said that they think that

29:01

agents are kind of overhyped right now

29:04

or at least it's very early in

29:06

combination with the fact that they have

29:08

come out with what is a largely

29:12

underwhelming and I would say dumber

29:14

than average AI product. My takeaway is

29:18

it sounds like Apple does not take AI

29:20

very seriously. Would you say that that

29:23

is a fair characterization?

29:25

>> I think there's nuance. I think they

29:27

take it seriously, but they don't have

29:29

this religious fervor. And I use

29:32

religious intentionally. I think when

29:33

you look at how anthropic talks about

29:36

AI, it's almost like they see it as a

29:38

deity, right? I don't think they have

29:39

this fervor around the technology as

29:41

this bigger than life thing the way that

29:44

the labs do. And I think they see it as

29:47

a tool and as a new kind of technology

29:49

substrate that they'll build their

29:51

platforms on over time. But they have

29:53

the luxury of just kind of watching and

29:56

learning as people experiment and fail

29:58

and maybe succeed on the margin on the

30:00

frontier and they can come in you know a

30:03

cycle or two behind which is you know

30:04

for people who study Apple that's the

30:06

history of Apple right I mean uh there

30:08

was the Blackberry before the iPhone

30:10

right uh obviously you know PC was quite

30:13

strong before the Mac right so uh I

30:16

think they can wait I I but I I think

30:19

the bigger long-term risk for Apple if

30:21

you're thinking about the stock in like

30:23

10 years is do agents make the concept

30:27

of an operating system as it exists

30:29

today archaic right is this services

30:32

business that is the majority of you

30:33

know Apple's margin growth at risk from

30:38

agents and and then potentially new

30:40

hardware form factors like whatever open

30:42

AI is going to do with Johnny IV the

30:43

meta glasses all of that right and Apple

30:46

will do glasses I think they're working

30:47

on that I think we'll probably see that

30:49

next year uh but Yeah, I I think I think

30:53

that's the bigger long-term risk.

30:55

>> Yeah. Alex Heath, author of the Sources

30:57

Newsletter and co-host of the Access

30:59

podcast. Alex, thank you so much. Always

31:01

appreciate your time.

31:02

>> Thanks, Ed. We'll be right back. And if

31:04

you're enjoying the show, be sure to

31:06

subscribe to the ProfG Markets YouTube

31:08

channel at the [music] link below.

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We're back with Profit Markets.

32:18

T-minus one day until SpaceX goes

32:22

public. It will be the largest IPO of

32:24

all time. A $75 billion offering at a

32:28

$1.77 trillion valuation. My final

32:33

message to our listeners before SpaceX

32:37

starts trading publicly, my final

32:39

message is do not buy this IPO. This

32:43

company is dramatically overvalued. And

32:45

not only that, this is a rigged game and

32:48

the game is not rigged in your favor.

32:50

Here is my prediction for what will

32:53

happen tomorrow. As soon as it hits the

32:55

market, SpaceX stock will immediately

32:57

explode 25%. Why? Because this is the

33:01

hottest stock in the world and because

33:02

the banks need this IPO to be quote

33:05

unquote successful. Because if it goes

33:07

badly then all the other IPOs like

33:10

OpenAI, like Anthropic will be called

33:12

into question, which will be a huge

33:14

problem for the underwriters and for the

33:17

markets at large. In other words, the

33:19

bankers won't let this fail. They have

33:21

the capital to make sure it won't fail,

33:23

at least on the first day. However, my

33:26

other prediction is that within 6

33:29

months, probably sooner, SpaceX stock

33:31

will be cut in half. Why? because the

33:35

valuation makes no sense whatsoever. All

33:38

of the insiders know this. All of the

33:40

banks know this. And as soon as the

33:43

lockups expire, you will see one of the

33:45

largest selling events in market

33:47

history. The stock will tank and you can

33:50

lock that prediction in from me right

33:52

now. One final point before we go. Don't

33:56

convince yourself that you can game

33:58

this. If you buy the IPO tomorrow, you

34:01

will already have missed the boat. The

34:03

stock will pop as soon as it starts

34:05

trading. And even if it starts to climb

34:07

throughout the day, the reality is that

34:09

those returns will be nothing compared

34:12

to what the insiders have already

34:14

gained. And spoiler alert, at that

34:16

point, they will already be selling. You

34:19

cannot win this game. You will not win

34:22

this game. Do not buy SpaceX tomorrow.

34:27

Thank you for watching [music] Profit

34:28

Markets from Profit Media. If you like

34:30

this episode, subscribe to our YouTube

34:32

channel and also tune in tomorrow

34:33

[music] for our conversation with Howard

34:36

Marx.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses the highly anticipated and massive SpaceX IPO, questioning its valuation and discussing the potential for market volatility as multiple major AI-focused firms look to go public. The host argues that the current IPO mania, including potential future public offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic, could signal a market top and warns retail investors about the risks involved. Additionally, the episode features a discussion on inflation, driven by geopolitical tensions in Iran and energy prices, as well as an analysis of Apple's recent AI strategy, which has received mixed reviews.

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