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>> Well, Israel said it killed Iran's

security chief that in an overnight

attack intensifying a regionwide war

that shows no signs of abating and we

are well into our third week. President

Trump earlier today from the uh Oval

Office referred to that action. He also

talked more broadly about the US war in

Iran, including timing. He talked around

noon Wall Street time today. But we're

not ready to leave yet, but we uh we'll

be leaving in the near future. We'll be

leaving in pretty much the very near

future. But right now, they've been uh

decimated from every standpoint. And

again, we've had great support from

countries in the Middle East. Great

support, but we've had no support from

essentially no support from NATO.

>> And that of course is President Trump

earlier today from the Oval Office. with

more on what's going on. We want to head

first of all to Jerusalem and to

Bloomberg News Jerusalem journalist. He

is Dan Williams where it is later there

of course in Israel. Um Dan, good to

have you here with us. Glad we could

check in with you. Um glad to see you

are still safe. There's so much going

on. Um what do we know about this

security chief in Iran that was said to

be taken out?

I think it would be fair to say that he

was the de facto at least publicly

available ruler of Iran after Israel and

the United States in the early hours of

this war on February 28th killed the

Supreme Leader Kame. As everyone knows,

Ham was officially succeeded by his son

Moshaba. But that man has not been seen

in public. He is rumored to have been

injured in that in an Israeli strike or

a US strike. And indeed, Trump, the US

president, has even speculated that he

might not be alive. By contrast, Ali

Lariji Janei, a veteran member of the uh

national security echelon in Iran, was

available for interviews. He made

televised statements and he even marched

in an annual parade or an annual march

on Friday into Iran as a sign of his

defiance. It's possible that as a result

of that public appearance, he enabled

the Israelis to tag him and track him

and uh ultimately kill him overnight.

>> Dan, uh obviously it sends a message to

the way that that Israel and the US view

the the the leaders as they are right

now, but I'm wondering with the killings

uh of the the top brass in Iran, who is

left to actually be the leader of the

country?

Well, if you ask the Israeli or US

leaders about this, that would be the

Iranian people, the Iranian public. They

said at the outset of this war that the

secondary objective, the initial

objective was to degrade, destroy um

Iranian capabilities, namely ballistic

missiles, what remains or remained of

the nuclear program and in the case of

the US also the Iranian Navy in order to

enable maritime traffic uh free of

Iranian harassment uh in the Gulf. a

secondary role or a secondary objective

was to create a space as they put it for

the Iranian people to take over control

of that country. Israel assesses that 70

to 80% of the Iranian populace oppose

this regime or have opposed this regime.

And uh while that is hard to assess

objectively, certainly from um outside

just two months ago, we saw protests

sweeping Iran and a very brutal

crackdown by the Iranian state. So the

official line is that the allies are

seeking to destroy that regime and in

embolden to the extent possible or

create the conditions to the extent

possible that will enable protesters to

come back into the streets and actually

give that regime the final push required

to topple it and replace it.

>> Sam, we're going to talk more about Iran

in um a segment right after you. What I

want to ask you though about in terms of

Israel, the foreign minister um earlier

said the war is effectively quote

already won but vowed to quote continue

till the point the mission will be

completed. What exactly is Israel's

mission? And I got to ask you when we

talk about backing and what people and

citizens want. What do the people of

Israel want? Are they still backing

their prime minister? Will they still

back him after all of these conflicts

are over?

>> Well, that's an excellent question. I

think while the allies at least at the

level of their leaderships, their

militaries are very much in sync about

the objectives here, they say they speak

repeatedly. Uh and in fact the US

military has compared or described the

Israeli air force as a peer air force to

the US air assets being brought into the

region. Quite an extraordinary statement

for the US power, this dominant power in

the world to be speaking about what is

basically a regional power um in the

form of Israel. Nevertheless, the

Israeli public to judge by polls, unlike

the American public, are broadly in

support of this war. This war has not

found popularity among the uh America

among Americans. There's a very good

reason for this. One is geographical

distance. Uh Americans are on the other

side of the world. Israelis are in the

region feel directly threatened by Iran

not just by its statements but its

actions including the support of proxies

such as Hamas which Israel has been

battling for 2 and a half years albeit

in a state of ceasefire right now in

Gaza a uh fairly fragile ceasefire but a

ceasefire nonetheless. Hezbollah in

Lebanon where there has been an eruption

of violence. There have been also

Iranianbacked militias in Iraq and in

the past in Syria and currently in Yemen

as well. So the Israelis would appear to

be seeing this as the crowning

>> the crowning battle or the last war of

this multiffront campaign that's really

in its third year now

>> Dan 203 seconds but do the people of

Israel still back their prime minister

who was on

>> yeah go ahead

>> he his approval ratings have improved

given his conduct of um recent policy

issues I believe including this war

there is an election later this year I

think that's the ultimate plebesite

because no matter his successes and

there have been successes regionally on

the battlefield. They will remember the

October 7th attack which began this

multiffront campaign, a disastrous

attack for Israel which happened on his

watch.

>> Dan, so appreciate it. Please stay safe.

Please be well. Bloomberg News uh

Jerusalem journalist of course there uh

in Jerusalem in Israel. All right, so

that is our view from Israel. Let's get

to a view on Iran.

>> Back with us, Alice Vitanka, senior

fellow at the Middle East institute

specializing in Iran. He's also senior

fellow of Middle East studies at the US

Air Force Special Operations School and

teaches as an adjunct at Wrightpat Air

Force Base. He's the author of several

books including the battle of the

Ayatollas in Iran, the United States

foreign policy and the political rivalry

since 1979. He joins us from Washington

DC. Uh I I want to just pick up where we

left off with Dan and the killing of of

of this latest figure in Iran. Where

does that leave the country in terms of

of leadership right now?

>> Tim, obviously it's a pretty big news.

Uh Ali Lauri is a figure that anybody

who's been watching Iran knows has had

one or another political senior

political role for pretty much as long

as the Islamic Republic has been in

Iran, 47 years. and he most recently

returned as the head of the Supreme

National Security Council back in August

of last year with his sole job as trying

to sort of coordinate best policies as

they uh right after the 12-day war. And

now he's gone most likely, although uh I

haven't seen Iranian official

confirmation, but he's probably gone.

And I don't think we should

underestimate what that means. It's

pretty significant, at least a

psychological blow. Uh but I wouldn't be

surprised if he's quickly replaced. I

mean the regime is still able to put

people in position senior positions at

least for now. Whether that means that

those are the best people they have or

whether it just suggests that they want

to show continuity which is obviously

very important for again from a

psychological point of view to show that

they're not on their way out.

>> Alex, you know Tim just turned to me. He

says it sounds like whack-a-ole and it

does. It feels like as soon as they're

you've reminded us the regime is not one

person and that as soon as someone's out

they find somebody else. But having said

that not everybody is interchangeable

and not everybody is a supreme leader.

So I just you know I guess I keep

wondering um Israel's prime minister

Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video

statement that his military is quote

undermining this regime meaning Iran in

the hope of giving the Iranian people a

chance to remove it. Is it true? Has the

regime been undermined? And is this what

Iranians want?

>> Well, Carol, there's no way to deny the

fact that the regime is undermined

massively. Certainly, it's never been uh

under such amount of attack in its

history. And I would also say, Carol, no

doubt in my mind that the people of Iran

by and large really want to see the end

of this regime. Obviously from their

point of view they want the regime to

fall with minimum casualties, minimum

damage to the country's infra

infrastructure. Uh but the Islamic

Republic in the eyes of many are you

know a political system that brought one

crisis or disaster upon the nation after

another going back to 1979. I mean it

made a host of bad decisions. You could

go back to the taking over the US

embassy in November of 1979

>> provoking Saddam Hussein to attack Iran

in September of 80. And I can go on. Um,

look, the regime is weak. Uh, it's not

on its way out just yet. The big

question, and I think that might answer

partly what you're asking me, Carol, is

not just that the figures, all of them

have to go. The question is, does Israel

and the United States perhaps have it in

him to accept so-called pragmatic

figures from within the regime emerge as

possible candidates to take over? That

kind of tallies nicely with what

President Trump has been suggesting. a

number of times over the course of this

war.

>> Who are are are there any of those

figures that we know about? Have those

figures been identified, Alex? Are there

any names of people who might be

pragmatic and acceptable to the United

States and Israel?

>> Well, that's a big question mark. I

mean, I can give you names, Tim. Let me

give you a former President Hassan

Roani. For some, he might be just

pragmatic enough to be able to change

course, take the country in a different

direction. many others would oppose him

say well that's not going to solve much

he's been part of this system for from

day one so why go through all this

trouble just to be have someone like him

in place so really I guess it comes down

to how much appetite you you have if you

are US if you are Israel for this war to

continue to get to a point where you say

I've eliminated all of them uh or you

say well I don't want to stay here for

months and years I want to have somebody

who is sensible enough to compromise and

I will then call it a day and move on.

>> You know, Alex, one of the things that

we keep talking about, um, as we look at

this war now in its third week, uh, and

it's something that, you know, President

Trump said earlier, he talked about the

war in Iran. He said that everybody in

the world should be thankful and that if

he and his administration had not taken

all the steps it has on Iran, including

withdrawing the US from the landmark

2015 accord to curb Iran's nuclear

program during his first term, that in

his words and quote unbelievable nuclear

holocaust would have taken place. Is he

right? Is this something that actually

changes the trajectory of the region of

perhaps Iran's role with the world?

Carol, that's a great question. I mean,

that was certainly the motive. That's

how the president has tried to sort of,

if you will, sell this to to the

American public uh from

>> But is it a sell or is it is it maybe

right?

>> Depends. Look, if the regime collapses

in the sense that we can say Islamic

Republic is no longer here, is no longer

relevant. Iran has moved on, the region

will move on, then I would say that's

pretty I mean to end something that's

been with us for 50 years in less than a

month that you know I know the world is

going through energy crisis but it's

still a significant success. But if the

remnants of this regime stay with there

thousands of drones and so forth and act

like spoilers going forward then the

question becomes was this the wisest way

to do it? Why the timing? Why rush into

something? And all sorts of question can

be then asked but obviously it's too

early to judge. Let's see what how long

more this war goes on and what uh you

know what any political transformation

major one might come out of it.

>> You know uh Joe Kent the director of the

National Counterterrorism Center

resigned over the war with Iran. He

claimed that Israel had misled President

Trump into believing that the regime in

Thrron posed an imminent threat. He said

Iran posed no imminent threat to our

nation. It's clear that we started this

war due to pressure from Israel and its

powerful American lobby. Those are the

words of of Joe Kent. Is he right that

that this country pose no imminent

threat to the US?

>> Look, I certainly as an open- source

analyst did not see any Iranian

intentions to attack the United States

anytime soon. They just didn't have that

capacity. Um, but the point is obviously

the Israelis sit in a very different

part of the world. So, they have a very

different perspective. They are much

closer and the regime in Iran for

decades vowed to destroy them. So they

have a very different uh sort of sense

of uh threat when it came to the Islamic

Republic. Another way of looking at this

Tim is the Islamic Republic did not do

itself any favors going back to 1979.

Not sort of looking for ways to you know

if you will mend ties with the United

States after hostage crisis of 79. Um so

again depends how you measure hostility.

The intent uh was never certainly to be

a friend or partner of the United

States. Ali Kami the last supreme leader

openly talked about you know getting the

United States states out of the region.

So but did I see an Iranian effort on

the way to attack the United States? As

I said I certainly in my position did

not see that but I also didn't see them

wanted to be friends with the United

States if that makes sense.

>> Alexena, thank you so much. Uh such a a

go-to for us. Senior fellow at the

Middle East Institute specially

specializing in Iran.

>> Stay with us. More from Bloomberg

[music] Business Week Daily coming up

after this.

You're listening [music] to the

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Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2

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us live on YouTube.

>> Taking a [music] look at where we are in

terms of uh the energy trade. uh WTI and

Brent uh both are higher, but we're

looking at them definitely off uh their

top levels, highest levels of the

session. Having said that, President

Trump, he made a lot of comments earlier

today from uh the White House in the

Oval Office. He said uh that as soon as

the war is over, oil prices will drop

like a rock. He says it won't be long

too before cargo ships can move through

the straight of Hormuz.

>> I have a lot of friends from Ireland.

They're very happy that I'm getting rid

of a nuclear power, a nuclear terrorist.

And as soon as that war is over, which

will be soon, your prices are going to

drop like a rock. You watch.

>> All right. We will be watching. We are

watching. President Trump, of course,

earlier today from the White House. As

for oil, as we mentioned, it is higher

off its best levels of the session, but

we do know Iran has continued attacks on

energy infrastructure around the Middle

East. And then of course we talked

earlier with our own Dan Williams from

Israel uh how Israel has killed uh

senior Iranian officials. We want to get

another check on the energy markets

because the longer this goes on we think

about short-term but also longerterm

impacts. Dr. Ellen Wald is back with us.

President of Transversal Consulting,

senior fellow at the Atlantic Council,

author of Saudi, Inc. once again with us

from Boca Raton, Florida. Ellen, is

President Trump, first of all, great to

have you back. We love talking with you.

Is President Trump correct that as soon

as the war is over, oil prices will drop

like Iraq?

>> Oil prices will definitely drop when the

war ends and it's clear that um shipping

can resume, but we're not going to

return to the previous state of affairs

immediately. And that's that's very

clear. First of all, there's going to be

a huge backlog. Uh we're going to need

to see the stores of various uh

products, crude oil, but also various

petroleum products be refilled. And then

there's also the damage that's already

been done that has to be contended with.

For example, Iran landed its first hit

to an um oil and gas field in the UAE.

We don't even know how the extent of the

damage, how long it might be offline. Um

when it comes to LG and and natural gas

prices in the LG trade, um it's going to

take Qatar at least a month to get just

to get its facilities back up and

running. So, there's going to be some

long-term reverberations of this. Um,

and so, while crude oil prices and and

futures may definitely drop, um, we're

definitely not going to to see, you

know, return to everything as as usual.

>> Yeah, I'm looking at at futures many

months out at this point. And, and we're

still, if we go to December of this

year, Ellen, for WTI, traders are still

betting that's going to be $76.25

per barrel. And that's a price that we

hadn't seen in years until earlier this

month. So, at least the way that traders

are thinking about this, they're not

looking at this. Either they're not

looking at it ending anytime soon or

they're looking at the repercussions of

this extending far beyond quote dropping

like a rock.

>> Absolutely. I mean, it depends what

dropping like a rock means. Does

dropping like a rock mean that prices

will be back, you know, in the 80s or or

70s? Yeah. Does it mean they'll be back?

You know, does it mean we'll see $50

oil, which is what Trump claimed we were

going to see right after, you know, the

the Venezuela um you know, debacle or or

the Venezuela victory, whatever side

you're on. Um you know, I'm not sure

that that we're going to see that. Um we

will definitely see a drop simply

because the danger presumably will be

removed, but the long-term repercussions

are going to be felt for for a long

time. in agriculture uh just backlog of

products. This is going to take some

time to unravel.

>> So talk to us about those longerterm

implications. When you say it's going to

take a while, how long, Ellen? Are we

talking a few months? Are we talking six

months? Are we talking a year?

>> I mean, I think that the the markets are

incredibly resilient at uh you know,

rerouting things. So, I I think that we

will see markets take the most efficient

and best ways to sort things out, but

the the real test is going to be the

extent of the damage. How long is it

going to take to get these oil

facilities? We don't know how much more

is going to be damaged. We're still in

the phase of Iran has the capability to

destroy and damage oil production in its

neighbors and we don't know how much uh

you know, how much more damage it's

going to do. the more damage it does,

the longer it will take to um you know

to recover from this. So yeah, 6 months

I say is is probably a minimum.

>> What's more problematic? Some of those

other Middle Eastern targets or you know

oil um operations in Iran. And I only

bring that up because the president did

reiterate that the US could knock out

oil on Car Island, adding that it hasn't

done so yet because of how long it would

take to rebuild it. uh nation previously

bombed military targets on the key

Iranian export hub but spared its oil

infrastructure. If indeed that happened,

what would that do to energy markets

short and longer term?

>> So I I think that energy markets are

really operating in general without um

accounting for Iranian oil. So, if all

Iranian oil is off the market, I don't

think that that's going to push prices

up all that much because, you know, it's

really just China that is buying Iranian

oil anyway. So, um you know, China is

probably going to buy more Russian oil

to account for a loss in Iranian oil or

it will buy oil from elsewhere. Um, it

would be great to have that oil

available for the market and also for

Iran when it's in some kind of

rebuilding stage, but if that oil is off

the market, I don't think that is going

to have the biggest impact.

>> Ellen, you know, I if if we are indeed

in we are a net exporter of oil. I think

a lot of people have this misconception

about what it means to be energy

independent when a conflict many

thousands of miles away that cuts off

20% supply of the world's oil has such

dramatic effect on West Texas

Intermediate. Can you explain that

connection for people?

>> Yeah, exactly. I mean, oil is a global

commodity and it's priced globally. So

even though we don't really import all

that much from uh Persian Gulf countries

at the moment, um what happens anywhere

to oil impacts the price at home. Now

that doesn't mean that we're going to

see shortages. I don't think we are in

danger of seeing shortages of any sort.

But because most of the price of

gasoline is the price of the barrel of

oil, we are impacted by the fact that um

you know when prices rise because of any

kind of global incident, we are going to

feel that uh at home. Is there a way

though for the US to become more energy

independent if we do in the words of of

the president drill more here in the

United States? But or is the the

challenge you know the oil that that we

extract here or the oil that you know

maybe we will get from Venezuela is not

necessarily the oil that we are should

we can be using or we can be refining.

>> Right. I think that um the best way to

insulate the United States from the kind

of um price fluctuations that we're

seeing is actually to become more oil

interdependent. Uh and I think that we

do that by strengthening our connections

within North America. One of the biggest

reasons why we aren't feeling, you know,

these impacts beyond just in the price

of gasoline and the price of diesel is

that we have such a great interface with

Canada. Most of our oil imports right

now actually come from Canada. And so if

we can strengthen our interdependence as

as part of the North American oil

ecosystem, then we are either even

better insulated. The other way to do

that is to do more refining and to

produce more diesel here in the United

States to produce more gasoline. Uh

California, for example, can only use

gasoline that is produced and refined in

California. Well, that needs to change

or California needs to have more

refineries. the more that we can can

have our own refineries and the more

that we can do that the better insulated

we can be and from global issues and

also the more we can help assist uh you

know I mean we we started this war in a

sense and we have the capability to

assist other countries that are more

impacted by it and if we produce more at

home and we produce more products we can

help other countries more by exporting

>> Ellen you mentioned Canada um I don't

know if you've seen any of the stories

over the last year, but we're having

some troubles with that relationship.

Um, certainly with this White House.

Having said that, I do think about um

the administration and how they do think

about national security and that

includes energy security. Does this

somehow grease the wheels, no pun

intended, in terms of that relationship,

the US and Canada to kind of figure out

something a little bit more

constructive? Uh I think it absolutely

should because the better relations we

can have with Canada, the more ease of

transportation of goods, uh services,

but also the things that we need to um

you know build oil infrastructure will

be better. Um Canada really has no

choice but to export a lot of its oil

through the United States. So the United

States technically imports that oil and

then a lot of it is also exported or

used in the US. Um, now they do have the

option to export um, you know, via uh,

ports in Vancouver. But the more that we

can work with Canada uh, and build more

infrastructure and do more exchanges,

the the better those relations will be

and the more flexibility we'll have in

terms of of gasoline and and energy

prices in general. One distinction I

want to make because we have a great

story out on the Bloomberg too about

just reminding us that US diesel rose

above $5 a gallon for the first time

since December of 2022 because of what

we are seeing the surging oil prices um

amid the war and disruption in the

Middle East. We talk about diesel its

role in freight agriculture construction

industries um and so everybody's kind of

trying to to juggle and manage that.

What do we need to understand? I mean,

we talk about energy as this bucket, but

there are different pieces within that

bucket.

>> Absolutely. And one of the reasons the

diesel prices are are surging is because

we didn't have a lot of diesel in

storage. Um, and so we haven't had that

cushion to kind of fall back on. Whereas

in terms of gasoline, we have have more

we had more in storage and so we have

more cushion to fall back on. But rises

uh increases in diesel prices are really

what reverberates throughout the economy

and that's really where we will see um

the you know people who aren't buying

diesel gasoline might not necessarily

feel it at the pump but diesel is what's

used in trucking. It's what's used in in

construction and so we will feel those

increases in other ways in the economy.

Increases in grocery prices for example

uh and other goods that need to be

transported. I mean our n trucking is I

would say the lifeblood of this country.

I mean everything is transported uh via

trucking essentially and so we're going

to feel that in the economy in a variety

of ways.

>> Yeah. And I think Carol a complicated

time uh to say the least for uh a

midterm election

>> for an administration that has been so

focused on affordability. Uh Dr. Ellen

Wald always great to see you. Thanks so

much for joining us on Bloomberg

Business Week Daily. Ellen Wald is

president of Transversal Consulting.

She's senior fellow at the Atlantic

Council. She's the author of Saudi Inc.

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg

Business Week Daily coming up after

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say, "Alexa, play Bloomberg 11:30."

Well, it is day two of Nvidia's

developer [music] conference in Nvidia

GTC is what it's called. It's happening

in San Francisco. Uh Nvidia CEO making

some comments right now at a press

conference. He says, this is Jensen

Wong. He says, "Buybacks dividends to be

a very large number." He also says that

Grock, that's Grock with a Q, not Grock

with a K. as Ed Llo talked to us about

yesterday could add 25% to data center

opportunity. Some other headlines

include HPE announces that HPE AI grid

is powered by Nvidia

>> on those uh buybacks. He says this sees

the shift to buybacks dividends in the

second half.

>> Okay,

>> so a little bit more in terms of that.

>> Let's bring in Mandy Singh. He's

Bloomberg Intelligence global head of

technology research. He joins us here in

the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers

studio. between the four and five

o'clock hour yesterday mandeep uh after

markets closed this slew of

announcements came out about different

partnerships that Nvidia had with

different companies that happens every

few months at these GTC's whether it's

in San Jose in the March or back in

October I believe in in Washington DC

what are the most important partnerships

that have been announced

>> I mean look they're trying to expand the

ecosystem and they want to uh convey to

the street that it's not just about the

data centers but also about autonomous

vehicles with the Uber and Lyft

partnership and actually those talks

were up today. So physical AI is a big

theme for Nvidia and their whole thing

is we are a systems company. Don't treat

us like a chip provider who is just

supplying the GPUs. Okay,

>> we do end to end systems.

>> But how much do they make from just the

chips versus how much they make from

these other markets?

>> I mean right now it's all data center

driven in fact.

>> [laughter]

>> And the idea is that they want to they

want to show that there's this physical

AI. There are these robots that are

going to be folding our clothes and

doing our dishes and that's going to be

powered by Nvidia. You cover Uber and

Lift. You cover ride sharing. Uh is

there a future there for Nvidia inside

these cars?

>> I mean it's a moonshot for me and all

these hyperscalers have moonshots. In

the case of Alphabet, we know Whimo has

paid off, but it took more than 10

years, you know, for that to get to a

certain point. So from that perspective,

I think it's still ambitious in terms of

uh revenue generating opportunity.

>> But uh look, I I think that's what you

can do as a CEO is to say that you have

technology that is pervasive, that is

not too niche. And uh Nvidia has proven

you know the fact that they're guiding

to trillion dollars in revenue uh

through 2027 is a testament to the fact

that they have expanded the addressable

market in a big way.

>> Address that number because we did see

the stock pop in the aftermarket on and

then it pulled back again and all of us

were kind of like searching through and

like reminding us about what they've

said. Is was that a big upgrade in terms

of their forecast or not really?

>> It certainly is. uh from a growth

perspective 2027 uh growth numbers

consensus numbers uh are at least 5%

above where consensus was based on this

1 trillion guide. The reason why they're

not getting the credit from investors

right now is because it's all driven by

Nvidia's supply agreements. They have

locked in TSMC supply. I would argue if

Google GPUs have more supply, they would

be growing faster too. So right now

because the market is so supply

constrained, if Nvidia is saying they

have locked in 70% of TSMC's wafer

capacity, well guess what? Anyone else

who wants to uh make a chip cannot make

a chip because there is no supply of

invid TSMC wafers.

>> That's ma amazing 70%.

>> Yes.

>> Wow. That's

>> and they prepaid 95 bill uh billion

dollars Nvidia data. If you look at

their uh just recently reported quarter,

they had $95 billion in prepaid

commitments to their suppliers, notably

TSMC and you know some of the memory

guys. So

>> So they own it and it's harder for

everybody else.

>> I would argue Google TPU is a a very uh

close second to Nvidia. The problem is

they cannot ramp up supply.

>> So explain how that constricts a company

like Broadcom or AM AMD. So Broadcom

also guided $400 billion in revenue for

2027 which is why I think Nvidia gave

that 2027 numbers is because

>> so Broadcom says hundred billion Nvidia

says a trillion

>> trillion through 2027. So if you uh uh

kind of do the back of the envelope math

it equates to about $500 billion in

revenue for 2027. Okay. So from a ratio

perspective, Broadcom and Nvidia are

currently at, you know, uh Broadcom has

a 10 to 15% market share, Nvidia has

almost 75% and then you have AMD. That

ratio is still more or less in line in

2027 and that's why they guided to that.

>> But the $500 billion extra figure, does

that imply no growth then in the

industry that year or or for Nvidia that

year? if they're bringing in 500 billion

dollars this year in that category in

500 billion.

>> No. So, uh, so right now they're at a

$215 billion run rate in data centers.

In 2026, it goes to 375 billion. So,

that's like a 70%.

>> And then for 2027, it gets to 500

billion, which is another 35% growth.

So, their growth is still astronomical.

When you think about a company of this

scale growing at 70% and then 35%.

That's phenomenal. So there's nothing to

take away from you know what they are

doing in terms of execution and how

they're ramping up. But partly that has

to do with how well they have managed

the supply chain. It's like the Apple uh

days you know when Apple was ramping up

iPhones they had a lock on the supply

chain. Similarly, you see that with

Nvidia, they have managed the supply

chain extremely well in an environment

where everyone is supply constrainted.

Nvidia did a great job of managing that,

>> man. Deep in terms of Nvidia putting

that lock on the supply chain. Is that

because the visibility and the actual

orders they're there like I I keep

wondering how much are they kind of

locking in just to make sure they own

it, right? And have it as the demand

comes in. like how much are they

guaranteed actually comes to fruition?

>> Well, they have the best performing chip

and that's why, you know, I said it's

really a tight race between Nvidia and

Google TPUs. Everyone else is behind.

And so from that perspective, the fact

that hyperscalers are still 60% of

Nvidia's $500 billion revenue in 2027

just goes to show that there is no other

place to go. If Meta wants to add AI

infrastructure capacity, they have to

get Nvidia chips. Same thing even Google

the with their TPUs is a big Nvidia

customer. Why? Because that's the only

way to add AI infrastructure capacity,

not with their own TPUs. They cannot

make more TPU chips. So that's why all

these hyperscalers are still such a big

chunk of Nvidia.

>> It's pretty remarkable, right?

>> Yeah. I'm looking at

>> I mean terms of really no competition,

right? or or or at least not they're not

in the position of where Nvidia is at

this point.

>> I think that supply factor is huge. If

DSMC was to somehow raise their supply

of chips, then I think Google TPUs has a

shot at really ramping up faster. But

until that happens,

>> are they not doing that or they can't do

that? you you can see TSMC's capex for

2026 and all the capex it takes about 18

months to ramp up a fab to uh for it to

be online. So this is uh you know the

lead times are quite long when it comes

to ramping up uh supply of uh TSMC's

manufacturing capacity.

>> Just a few of the headlines on

partnerships. Salesforce teams with

Nvidia on AI agents. Hyundai Hyundai Kia

Nvidia expand autonomous driving

partnership. IBM announces expanded pack

with Nvidia. Salesforce I mentioned STMI

uh ST micro electronics to partner with

Nvidia. Uh the headlines go on HPE

unveils AI factory supercomputing

advancements with Nvidia. Does everybody

want to work with Nvidia? I mean, that's

if you have a 75% market share in one of

the fastest growing areas in the

enterprise market and everyone sees it's

going to be a trillion dollar market,

then yeah, you you you go with that 75%.

>> L'Oreal expands AI partnership with

Nvidia.

>> I think it's just why

>> L'Oreal

>> they're planning to use 50% of free cash

flow for investor returns. Is that

smart? When they say they're going to do

buybacks, dividends,

>> it is the Apple playbook to me. Apple uh

did exactly that in terms of you know

being uh shareholder friendly with their

buybacks and reducing the share count.

You're seeing that such great stuff as

always. Mandep Singh of our Bloomberg

intelligence team.

>> Stay with us more from Bloomberg

Business Week Daily coming up after

[music] this.

>> You're listening to the Bloomberg

Business Week Daily podcast. Catch us

live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5:00

p.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay

and Android [music] Auto with the

Bloomberg Business App or watch us live

on YouTube. Uh let's bring in Samantha

Dart. She's co-head of global

commodities [music] research at Goldman

Sachs. She joins us from New York City.

Samantha, good to have you on the

program. We talk a lot about gas prices

and how they're up about a dollar just

going back to a little over a month ago.

But you have a no doubt talking about

other refined products. We're talking

jet fuel. We're talking heating oil uh

and diesel for example. Why are other

refined products more affected than you

know traditional gasoline prices with

this shock?

>> Yeah, the majority of the crude that

you're missing from uh the Middle East

is heavy crude and that type of crude uh

tends to produce more of the what they

call the dirtier products. So your

diesel, your jet fuel, fuel oil. So you

end up with a production of those

refined products in particular um more

impacted uh and and losing more barrels

than uh than gasoline at the margin. So

jet few I think is the best example of

that uh with prices uh skyrocketing.

Yeah, I always think this is important

when we dig and we did a little bit of

this with an earlier guest, Ellen Wald,

but just like understanding again, we go

we talk about commodities, we talk about

energy and we throw everything into the

same kind of bucket if you will, but

understanding the distinctions and

differences in terms of how it can

impact our world. talk a little bit more

about this and when it comes to refined

oil products, where it's all coming

from, how it gets around the world and

certainly how it can affect the global

economy and and specifically the US

economy.

>> Yeah. On one hand, you have this

outright supply of a lot of these

products from the Middle East that is

not crossing through the straight,

right? So, for example, a lot of um your

Asia NATA comes from uh the the Persian

Gulf. A lot of your European jet fuel

comes from the Persian Gulf. But I think

in addition to that, because you're also

losing a lot of crude supplies from that

same region, you end up losing your

ability to produce additional barrels of

those products, whether it is in Asia or

Europe or in other places. And because

these products are widely traded, what

we end up seeing is that product prices,

your from gasoline to diesel to jet

fuel, they go up everywhere because you

end up um if it's cheaper here than

there, you end up trading uh and and

moving those products around so that you

equalize the price. So even though

certain regions are more directly

impacted by the volumes not crossing

this trade at the moment, your marginal

increase to product prices, they end up

impacting all the regions.

>> You know, I'm looking at the the futures

curve on the Bloomberg terminal right

now in terms of where we think or where

traders rather think that at least uh

WTI is going to go over the next few

months. What's your prediction in terms

of okay, if there is some sort of

ceasefire, if the straight of Hormuz

opens, how quickly and where will oil

prices get down to?

>> Yeah, think about it this way. I think

there are two key variables here. One

are the volumes that we're losing every

day and two, the market perception of

the duration of this conflict. the

volumes we're losing are still extremely

high. We have barely anything crossing

the straight at the moment. And even

taking into account the IEA uh strategic

petroleum reserves release that was

announced last week, we end up with

north of 10 million barrels a day of oil

and products that were missing every

day. So, so that's one. But the second

component that goes straight to what you

just said is that market perception of

duration. And the more concerned the

market becomes, that's when you tend to

see your brand prices cross $100 a

barrel. That's the the signal that it

sends because you can only destroy

demand uh more significantly once you're

above that threshold. You don't

historically we haven't seen much of a

response below $100 a barrel. We're now

seeing, you probably saw the headline of

um SAS curtailing flights because they

probably can't pass through such an

uptick in jet fuel prices to consumers.

So that's the signal that the market is

sending. So to your point, if you have,

let's say, a ceasefire tomorrow, the

signal that sends is, huh, then maybe

the the disruption through the strait is

not going to last much longer. It's

going to take okay a few weeks to

restart refineries, restart uh oil

production, but

of the need of destroying demand that

goes down and then you can give up a lot

of your risk premium. You could, you

know, just as easily as as you've gone

above $100 a barrel for brand, you could

be back in the low 80s,

>> right? Demand destruction can certainly

happen. Hey, one of the things I think

about Samantha, coming out of this war,

we hope sooner rather than later that

there is an end to the US war in Iran,

uh, and Israel pulls back as well, uh,

their involvement. Is there something

different that we're going to see in

terms of, um, national security moves

when it comes to energy supplies and

maybe things being built out closer to

home where they can be? Is there

something longer term that happens in

terms of the energy global energy supply

chain?

>> I think that's such an important point

and and it's not just what's happening

now. I think since the COVID shock,

we've seen how we can be vulnerable to

supply chain disruptions that was

followed by the European energy crisis

in 21 and now we have this conflict um

that is creating a lot of disruption

worldwide. So I think you're absolutely

right. This ends up incentivizing I

think the the the the widespread

buildout of strategic reserves uh

initiatives like um project vault in the

US or the strategic reserves build out

that we saw in China even last year. Uh

I think we're likely to see more of

those initiatives exactly because

countries are likely to try at least to

become more self-sufficient. You look at

Europe today for example, almost 50% of

Europe's energy consumption uh is still

covered by imports.

>> Yeah. Right. I mean it's just

tremendous. And you think about too

certainly Asia, China, we talk about

this a lot. I wonder if in terms you

guys game out scenarios longer term. Do

you see a world where global energy

markets Iran is not really factored in

because of some of the restrictions,

right? Um in terms of where it can go.

Is there a world where Iran is a part of

that global mix?

>> You know, it's really hard for us to say

what we do best, I think, is count the

barrels and work the the scenarios of um

how pricing can respond to different uh

supply availability. So, right now, uh

Iranian cargos are pretty much the only

ones crossing the street and and not

even the the usual number of tankers. So

um we'll continue to to look through how

that crossing evolves, what's available

to the market and work through the

scenarios.

>> You know, I want to just talk about

domestic production a little bit. And

you know, commodity, our own

commodities, Bloomberg intelligence

analyst likes to say the cure for high

prices is high prices. But when with the

oil industry, it's not as easy as just

producing more uh especially if it

involves infrastructure. And and I'm

wondering how higher prices here in the

US affecting consumers might make

production change in the US or or cause

uh companies in the US to invest more in

production like the president wants to

see. Is this enough of a supply shock to

do that or does it seem so short-lived

that companies will not make the capex

investments to increase production?

So firstly I I would say that your last

point I think is exactly right. Usually

we see lack of investment uh in supply

reflected in a back end of the forward

curve that rises and rises and that uh

signals the need for additional

long-term investment. These things can't

be built uh overnight. Um but I would

say given the rally that we've seen in

oil so far, uh what we've seen is that a

lot of oil companies in the US have

hedged. So you see at the margin a

little bit of a a an increased incentive

for um growing production, but that's

not overnight either. I mean, we like to

call SH short cycle supply because it

doesn't take years to show up. It takes

months,

>> but we're still talking 6 9 12 months to

see that show up. All right. I don't

know if I can do this with uh the

co-head of global commodities research,

but I'm going to go ahead and do it

anyway. Samantha, should we be talking

like or do you guys talk about as a

result of this, it's a reminder that

it's good to have different forms of

energy and I think about alternative

energy which has taken a major back seat

certainly uh it feels like with this

administration. And I know Europe and

the world thinks differently in terms of

alternative forms, but do you do you

factor that in about how this war again

is reminding us that it's good to have

different forms of where our energy

comes from?

>> No, but I again I think you're exactly

on point. So for example, let's look at

China. China um dominates in a lot of

metals production and refining, but not

so much in oil and gas. They are net

short oil, they are net short gas. So

what did China do? They invested a lot

in EVs domestically. So you're shifting

your demand towards electricity because

electricity you can produce and to

produce electricity. They relying again

on what they have which is coal. They

can produce it and stockpile it and

renewables as well. So if you turn to

places again like Europe um Europe has

some oil and gas as well no question but

those reserves are not growing. So by

investing in more renewables, yes, they

can become a little bit more resilient.

The only thing is they shouldn't shut

down their alternative.

>> Samantha, we got to run. We got to

continue this in the future. Samantha

Dart over at Goldman Sachs.

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