The last couple years of being a

developer has been uh you know I guess

kind of interesting, right fellas? I

actually have some good news here. Okay,

things have been changing. Some whispers

have been having and new news is hitting

the front lines. It turns out being a

software developer might actually be

well, it might actually be pretty dang

awesome. Now, if you haven't been in the

software development realm for the last

3 years, let me do a quick recap for

you. First off, you shouldn't teach your

kids to code because honestly, you

should let AI do that, says AI salesman

number one.

>> You said AI could wipe out half of all

entry-level white collar jobs and spike

unemployment to 10 to 20% in the next 1

to 5 years.

>> Yes.

>> And of course, Daario here always just

giving it to you straight. By the way,

look at how happy he is. He is answering

this question with such elacrity. He has

never been more excited to tell you you

are about to lose your job than I've

seen any man on earth. This guy loves

firing people. He loves firing people,

not even from his own company. And if

that's not enough for you, of course,

last year we had Sam Alman, Sam

Jippidity Alman just dropping the Death

Star the day before big product

announcements just letting everybody

know, hey, what we're about to do, it's

pretty big. Now, of course, this is a

very confusing message. Is he saying

he's the bad guys? Is is that what he's

saying? is does he release the Death

Star? I'm still confused to this day.

Like this post actually eats like it's

an earworm. Okay, it eats me from the

inside. Like what the hell happened

here? Why why why would you post this?

But the thing I wanted to talk about

this this turning point that's happening

is this right here. Look at this. Justin

Sam Alman says AI probably won't trigger

the job apocalypse he once predicted.

Not only that, but Uber COO now says,

"Hey, when you're spending a whole bunch

of tokens, honestly, can't really tie it

to features." So, there's something just

kind of happening in our world. So,

maybe some news realizing how important

it is to have competent and good

developers. It's like the timeline is

almost kind of oddly healing in a way.

So, we of course we absolutely have to

go over this. I got a lot of Yeah, okay.

The vindication gap is going to land on

this video. But more importantly, I want

to do a quick thank you to the sponsors.

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>> Okay, first let's talk about Sammy Jippy

Alman right here saying, "Hey, maybe he

was wrong." Here's kind of exactly what

he said. This, of course, is from a

Commonwealth Bank of Australia

conference in Sydney just last Tuesday.

It says this, "I don't think we're going

to have the kind of jobs apocalypse that

some of the companies in our space

advocate or talk about." By the way, I

love the fact that he says advocate.

Like, there's actual companies in his

space advocating for everybody to lose

their jobs. You know who we're talking

about, okay? You know who Sammy boy is

talking about. He's not talking about,

you know, minstal AI. The bro's talking

about Anthropic. He's just like, "Yo,

Anthropic,

they really want you to lose the jobs

here." M it could also be to be fair

this could also be some sort of jab at

Musk as well. I can't really tell but

either way very hilarious. I thought

there was going to be more impact on

entrylevel white collar jobs being

eliminated by now than has actually

happened. I now think I understand more

about why it hasn't and I'm obviously

grateful. But that is an area where my

intuitions were just off. We really do

care about our interactions with people,

he added, which he said, for better or

for worse. Updated me to thinking that

the jobs picture is likely going to be

very different than we thought. Okay.

Whoopsie. Turns out maybe people like to

talk to people and interact with people

and building great products. Actually,

turns out it just might take people.

Might take people to do that. Huh.

Crazy. I I just thought we were going to

get metered intelligence. I thought I

thought you stole the internet, took

everything, compressed it down into the

sweet next token prediction, and then

sell us back to us, and then we pay for

it. And it's just like that, and that's

how the world works. Of course, Sam's

actually not the only one. Goldman Sachs

CEO David M. Solomon says that AI won't

eliminate 25% of the jobs. He's just

saying, "Hey, it turns out people spend

their time in more productive ways." And

he makes some cases down here saying,

"Hey, did like any other technology ever

do this? And what we're observing is not

true in the data." So, this is actually

kind of a positive development. I'm

actually pretty excited about this. I

would love to see things actually

healing from this craze where you have

all these CEOs that have been told for

the last two years of these companies

like, "No, bro. Bro, I'm just letting

you know you got to just like, dude,

just like fire everybody. You don't need

them because you got AIS, dude. You got

Open Claw. Open Claw is going to do

everything. You just say, "Yo,

million-dollar sass. No mistakes." And

bam, in just a few minutes, crunching

some claw four points. Actually, 4.6.

4.7 is kind of trash. We all think it's

trash. Okay. 4.6. 4.6. And boom, you're

going to have yourself a million dollar

SAS. I am so happy that this is starting

to crumble because this is something

that has needed to crumble now for a

while because it is ridiculous. There is

so many people right now that at their

jobs are being forced to to like a

certain level of AI output. And if they

don't make it, they're like heads on the

chopping block. Even if it's not a good

idea. Like they don't even get the

option of going, "Hey, is this good or

bad?" It's like, no, use it or that's

bad. Like, if you don't use it, that's

bad. It's like, well, maybe it's not

always the best thing. And where this is

really starting to show is this right

here. This the Uber COO saying that

heavy AI spend is actually getting

harder to justify as higher token usage

fails to show clear payoff in consumer

features. Now, this of course is a

headlining item. So, let's actually

watch the video as opposed to, you know,

seeing what Twitter has to say. Let's

let's look at the actual video. Let's

hear what he has to say. I know, novel

concept, right?

>> You make your head explode, right? When

you hear companies talking about, hey,

25% of code commits uh over the last

quarter were AI driven um or you know

our token usage went from X to Y or

percentage of employees, you know, all

all these sort of numbers. Um, and it's

amazing and I think it's like this

massive transformation of society, but

then you sometimes go and you talk to

your senior engineering leaders and

you're saying, okay, how many projects

that were on the cutting room floor got

moved above the line because of the, you

know, productivity gains because 25% of

our code commits were via cloud code

last last quarter.

That link is not there yet, right? like

you're not I mean I think maybe

implicitly there there's more that is

getting shipped but it's it's it's very

hard to draw a line between one of those

stats and okay now we're actually

producing like 25%

more useful consumer features

>> and this is the COO of Uber like this

guy has fully committed to this AI kind

of adventure in fact they spent within

the first four months their operating

year budget for AI like these people

were committed and now after all this

are like, "Okay, wait, wait, wait, wait,

wait, wait. Maybe not everything that

glitters is gold. Perhaps there are some

things that we don't really see these

implicit features that he was talking

about. Maybe there's more bug fixes,

which I'm a little bit dubious on that

one. But nonetheless, like maybe things

have been changing a little bit and now

we are shipping a bit faster, but

there's no material impact. What we

thought would be these huge gigantic

windfalls are in fact just not showing

up in the actual data." And this of

course gets me to the linear CEO post

which I really think just nails this

whole thing which is we keep hearing

about the 10x or the 100x productivity

gains in engineering and knowledge work.

But outside of model labs I haven't seen

the corresponding 10x to 100x revenue

growth across the market or increase in

quality. Where is the productivity

going? This is so good because you know

where the productivity is going. All

these people talking about this just

incredible increase in productivity.

what they're really saying. They're

like, "Dude, bro, I've just set up the

greatest harness ever. Oh my gosh, you

will not believe how many different

versions of Cloud Code I have running.

Like, I got GStack on top of the P

stack. I got all the stacks going so

hard. I got TRT coming in hot. Like,

we're doing everything. I'm going to

make the most crazy commits ever. Like,

I've just spent the last three months

sharpening the sword. Honestly, it

reminds me a lot of neoim config

enthusiasts." Now, remember back in the

day, maybe like a year ago to 5 years

ago, maybe this guy got made fun of a

lot. You know why I got made fun of?

Because oh, I was always playing around

with my neim config. I wanted the

perfect experience and everyone was

like, "How could you do that? Now what's

it's I swear today is just the same

story again, which is, oh, you know what

we really need? We need to make the

greatest agent harness." Like that's

what we're actually missing, bro. Bro,

it's just one more harness and then

we'll actually be able to write infinite

free highquality code forever. It'll be

so fast. It'll be so amazing. Just one

more harness, bro. Bro, it's just like

I'm almost there. My system prompt is

like 98%. It's so close. Also, I do love

the in like this line right here because

if you really think about what he's

saying is, hey, it's all the labs.

They're making like 10 to 100x more

money. Where's everybody else's money

from all these from all these AI

productivity gains? Huh? Because if

everybody really is 10 to 100x more

productive, wouldn't that show up in a

bunch more revenue? Kind of crazy that

the only people making money are the

people selling shovels, huh? I mean,

they are seeing 10 to 100x revenue.

Geez, that seems a little strange, isn't

it? See, the thing that I think people

are missing about this whole AI craze

and all that is that sure, there's a

bunch of people that go zero to one with

AI and they're like, "Wa, bro, this is

the coolest thing ever, but there's a

bunch of us who want to go say from 30

to 60, right? We're actually in the

further part of the project." And so

what I end up personally doing, which is

something I do right here, is I go off

and I talk about everything I want to

build to the AI. And then I have it

implement a bunch of different versions

of it. And I go, "Okay, well, what if we

change this? How about we put all the

responsibility over here?" And I can see

like five different versions of the

exact same thing and go, "Huh, okay. I

like this. Yeah, I like that. Okay, I

like this." Like, it is demonstrabably

helping me see a bunch of different

versions to really understand what makes

a good interface. But it's not this like

100x improvement. I'm not even sure if

I'm actually improving the speed in

which I'm actually making these

features. Maybe my understanding is a

bit faster. Maybe the ideas I'm coming

up with are a little bit more

solidified. But maybe also just sitting

down with a pen and piece of paper and

drawing out my ideas would have made the

exact same impact. See the thing that I

think most people are missing. People

that actually instead of building say

the zero to one projects, right? There's

a whole bunch of like flashy kind of

shallow projects that people make and

they're like, "See, yo, bro, this is so

fantastic." No, like trying to make deep

integrated products that actually take a

long time to think about and actually

take a long time to come up with good

ideas. When you use AI, it increasingly

makes things more brittle and more

difficult. No matter what you're doing,

you have to take a step back and

actually work through the problems

yourself. And this is one thing that

I've really appreciated about AI. I can

come up with an idea. I can kind of type

out what it should be and then I can

say, "Hey, go build me a mock version."

I can look at the mock version and go,

"Okay, yeah, I hate all these parts.

This is just going to be a nightmare to

maintain. This is going to be a source

of bugs. Let's change things up. How

about you do it this way?" Then I can

look at go, "Okay, I actually really

like how this is looking, but I would

really like this thing moved over here.

I'd like this." And then look at it

again. And so you can see this right

here. This is me working through how

would animations look in an immediate

mode UI. Well, now I've had three swings

at it and I go, "Okay, I actually really

like this. This actually looks pretty

good. Now I get to implement the thing."

And this is what I think we're seeing is

that when you really use this as a means

to actually help you build real

software, there's still just so much

decision-m and time spent thinking about

how things should actually look that

yeah, exploration is cheaper than it's

ever been before, but actual

implementation still feels really heavy.

And if anything, making good decisions

now almost feels harder because of how

fast you can move. Anyh who, I just

wanted to talk about this for a little

bit because I feel like there's just

there's so much in our kind of world

right now that's it's doom and gloom or

it's just absolute hyping. It's like no,

AI is the worst thing. No, that's clear

clearly that's not real. Or B, it's like

AI is the greatest thing that has ever

existed. Also, clearly not real. Like

yes, it is absolutely magic. You can

describe with practically broken English

and have something come out that

approximately looks like what you're

describing. Like honestly truly that is

a magical human feat. I hope that I

never stop being amazed by that because

honestly that's wild. You could never

have convinced me 6 years ago like that

was going to happen in my immediate

future. It's just want to yap about

something maybe a bit more positive that

hey actually I think I think a lot of

good things are still ahead of us. I I

still think we got a lot of good time

and I still think competency is actually

extremely important in learning how to

program and being a good programmer is

still in fact really important.

Hey, the name is the primogen.