Where is Trump's overall approval rating now?

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0:00

during Trump 1.0, Trump had

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you know, double digit unemployment

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during COVID. He had a 30% contraction

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of GDP and voters never blamed him for

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the economy during that time.

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>> Okay.

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>> And that was his greatest strength.

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>> The economy.

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>> The economy. Then he gets campaigns in

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'24 and he says, "I'm going to end Biden

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inflation."

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>> Right.

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>> Now he proposed tariffs.

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But what we began to see after April

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2nd, 2025

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was that Trump put out all those tariff

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proposals and his approval rating on the

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economy went negative right after that

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and has remained negative. So he turned

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his greatest asset, his strength on the

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economy, into a liability and that's

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driven down his overall approval rating.

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>> Where is his overall approval rating

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now?

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>> 38%. Midterm elections are referendums

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on the incumbent. Period. It's not about

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this congressman versus challenger. It's

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has Donald Trump made my life better or

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worse?

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>> So the midterms are not really local.

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>> They're not They're local to a degree,

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of course.

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>> The Republicans are going to try and

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localize it. They're going to make every

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Democratic candidate the worst human

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being on the face of the planet.

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>> Right.

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>> Okay? The Democrats are going to try and

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nationalize the election and make it a

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referendum on Donald Trump. There's a

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very strong correlation between a

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president's approval rating and the

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number of seats they lose in the house

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over time.

Interactive Summary

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During Trump's first term, he was not blamed for economic downturns like high unemployment and GDP contraction during COVID, with the economy being considered his greatest strength. However, during his '24 campaign, his tariff proposals, particularly after April 2nd, 2025, led to his economic approval rating turning negative and remaining so, transforming his prior asset into a liability and dropping his overall approval to 38%. Midterm elections are described as referendums on the incumbent president, with a strong correlation between presidential approval ratings and the number of House seats lost, leading Republicans to localize campaigns and Democrats to nationalize them around Trump's performance.