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The Economy's Booming… Just Not For Everyone

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The Economy's Booming… Just Not For Everyone

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366 segments

0:00

The stock market just hit its 23rd

0:01

record high this year. Home prices are

0:04

higher than ever before and net worth in

0:06

America has never been larger. By the

0:08

numbers, this is one of the richest

0:10

moments in the history of the country.

0:12

But at the same time, consumer sentiment

0:14

toward the economy has fallen to its

0:15

lowest level ever recorded. It's lower

0:18

than the early '80s recession, lower

0:20

than the 2008 global financial crisis,

0:23

and lower than during the pandemic

0:24

lockdowns. So, there's a clear

0:26

disconnect between what the data says

0:28

about the economy and what people say

0:30

they're experiencing in their day-to-day

0:31

lives. And you can see it up close by

0:33

looking at the most boring account in

0:35

America. Because the average 401k in

0:37

America just hit a record high, over

0:39

160,000.

0:41

And in the same year retirement account

0:43

balances hit a record high, a record

0:45

number of people were also cashing them

0:46

out early, willing to pay the penalty

0:48

just to get access to the money. About

0:50

6% of savers rated their retirement,

0:53

which is roughly triple the rate before

0:54

the pandemic. Of those hardship

0:56

withdrawals, 36% of them were to avoid

0:59

foreclosure or eviction, 31% were due to

1:02

medical expenses, and 13% were to cover

1:04

tuition-related expenses. So, while on

1:07

paper we're all living in the same

1:08

economy, the reality for millions of

1:10

Americans is the economy feels like

1:12

completely different worlds. Which

1:14

raises the question, how is this even

1:16

possible? How can the data show a

1:18

booming economy while the average person

1:20

feels the exact opposite? Well, here's

1:22

what almost nobody will say out loud.

1:24

Both of these economies are real. The

1:26

problem is that the American economy

1:28

looks very different depending on where

1:30

you stand. Because what we talked about

1:32

earlier is rising asset prices, and it

1:34

doesn't lift the country evenly. It's

1:36

not weather. The trillions of dollars

1:37

that get created when the market climbs

1:39

doesn't fall on everyone like rain. It

1:42

lands in specific accounts belonging to

1:45

specific people. And if you don't own

1:46

those accounts, the record highs aren't

1:48

really happening to you. They're just a

1:50

headline you scroll past on the way to

1:52

your 9-to-5 job. So, the real question

1:54

was never whether the economy is

1:56

booming. It is. The real question is who

1:58

benefits from it. When the market prints

2:00

another record, whose account does that

2:02

money actually flow into? And to answer

2:04

that question, you just have to follow

2:06

the paper trail. So, that's exactly what

2:08

I did. There are about 134 million

2:11

households in America. According to the

2:13

Federal Reserve's own data, the richest

2:16

1% of them, around 1.3 million

2:18

households, own more than half of all

2:21

the stocks in the country. And if you

2:23

zoom out to the top 10% of wealthiest

2:25

households in America, which is about 13

2:27

million households, they own roughly 87%

2:30

of all the stocks, which means the

2:32

bottom 90% of the country, around 120

2:35

million households, own just 13% of the

2:37

stock market between them. And the

2:39

further down you go, the worse it gets.

2:41

The teachers, the nurses, the bus

2:44

drivers, the people who run the

2:45

day-to-day of this country, the bottom

2:47

half of Americans, those 67 million

2:50

households own just 1% of the stock

2:52

market. Not 1% each, 1% total, split

2:57

between all 67 million households. The

2:59

usual response to this is that almost

3:01

everyone owns some stocks now. And

3:03

technically, there's some truth to that,

3:05

because it's estimated about 58% of

3:07

Americans own some stock, usually inside

3:10

a 401k. But owning some stocks and

3:13

owning enough to matter are two very

3:14

different things. Because for the bottom

3:16

half of the country, the median stock

3:18

holdings are about $13,000.

3:20

But for the top 10%, well, that number

3:23

is around $600,000.

3:25

That's a 48-fold difference. And when

3:27

you put actual dollar figures to that

3:29

gap, the scale becomes impossible to

3:31

ignore. In 2025, the stock market

3:34

returned about 16%. For the bottom half

3:36

of the country, that's a paper gain of

3:38

about $2,000. But for the top 10%, that

3:41

same 16% return in the market handed

3:44

them over about $96,000.

3:46

And this is just 1 year we're looking

3:48

at. Now, consider that the market has

3:50

has over 120% since 2020. So, while

3:53

participation in the market got

3:54

democratized, the dollars never did. The

3:57

richest households who own almost all

3:59

the stocks benefit from almost all the

4:01

gains, while the bottom half of

4:03

Americans fight for the scraps. But,

4:05

let's forget about the charts for a

4:06

second and look at the ground level,

4:08

because the story you keep getting told

4:10

is simple. The consumer is strong,

4:12

spending is holding up, the economy is

4:14

fine. And on the surface, it could

4:17

appear that way. But, the truth about

4:18

the average American consumer isn't in

4:20

the headline. It's in their wallets, and

4:23

you have to start with the money coming

4:24

in. Last month, average hourly earnings

4:26

were up about 3.6% from a year earlier,

4:29

which sounds like a raise, except over

4:31

that same stretch, inflation was up

4:33

3.8%, which means the raise got eaten by

4:36

inflation before it ever landed. So,

4:38

before the average American spends a

4:40

single dollar, they're already losing

4:41

ground. And this is being felt

4:43

everywhere. Gallup held a survey where

4:45

they asked Americans to name the single

4:47

biggest financial problem facing their

4:49

family. The top answer wasn't low wages,

4:52

and it wasn't unemployment. It was the

4:54

cost of living. High cost of living and

4:56

inflation was named by 31% of Americans

4:58

as the single most important financial

5:00

problem facing their family today, which

5:03

is near the highest level seen in the

5:04

more than 20 years Gallup has run this

5:06

survey. And once you remember that

5:08

prices are up over 28% since the start

5:10

of 2020, it isn't hard to see why 55% of

5:14

Americans say their financial situation

5:16

is getting worse. So, add this all up

5:18

and it leads to one question. If the

5:20

average Americans finances look this

5:22

grim, how is consumer spending still

5:24

going up? Where's the money coming from?

5:26

And there's an answer. It's coming from

5:28

the future, from debt. The first place

5:31

is credit cards. Americans are now

5:33

carrying about 1.25 trillion dollars of

5:36

credit card debt, and the average

5:37

interest rate on these credit cards is

5:39

now sitting around 23%. And this isn't

5:42

the rich chasing credit card points or

5:43

airport lounge access. It's the

5:46

opposite. Among people who carry credit

5:48

card debt, Bankrate found that 33% site

5:51

day-to-day expenses as the primary

5:53

source of their debt. So, they're not

5:55

financing a vacation. They're financing

5:57

just to keep going. There's even a new

5:59

name for this. It's called survival

6:01

debt. But before we get into just how

6:03

bad this survival debt problem actually

6:05

is, a quick pause. Because let's talk

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7:35

survival debt. Because what started as

7:36

just a slight concern is quickly

7:38

becoming a full-blown crisis for

7:40

millions of Americans. Mike Croxon, who

7:42

runs the National Foundation for Credit

7:44

Counseling, which is the largest

7:45

non-profit credit counseling network in

7:47

the country, summed it up best. He said,

7:50

"We are seeing a disturbing shift from

7:52

discretionary debt to survival debt."

7:54

And the scary part about this kind of

7:56

debt is for the people in it, there's

7:58

usually no clear way out, which is why,

8:00

according to Bankrate, 61% of people

8:03

with credit card debt have now been

8:04

carrying the debt for at least a year.

8:06

This is an 8-point increase since 2024.

8:09

And it doesn't just stop at credit

8:10

cards. There's another new kind of debt

8:12

that's spreading fast. You've probably

8:14

seen the memes. People financing a

8:16

Chipotle burrito by splitting it into

8:18

four payments. This new kind of debt is

8:20

a form of financing that lets people buy

8:22

something today and pay for it in

8:24

smaller installments over time. It's

8:26

called buy now, pay later, and it used

8:28

to just be for things like furniture and

8:30

concert tickets. But now more than 90

8:32

million Americans use it. According to

8:34

LendingTree, more than a quarter of buy

8:36

now, pay later users say they've used

8:38

these loans for groceries. And more than

8:40

half say they couldn't make ends meet

8:41

without using it. So, a significant

8:43

chunk of the country is now financing

8:45

their trip to the grocery store just to

8:47

get through the week. And there's one

8:49

last piece of the puzzle that shows just

8:51

how scary things have gotten. It's the

8:52

thing that's supposed to catch a family

8:54

when something breaks, savings. The

8:57

personal savings rate has dropped to

8:58

about 2.6% near the lowest level on

9:01

record and down from 5.5% a year ago.

9:05

And it gets much worse. Economists at

9:07

the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the

9:08

Bureau of Economic Analysis ran the

9:10

numbers on savings across the income

9:12

scale, and they found that for the

9:14

bottom half of the country, more than 65

9:16

million households, the savings rate is

9:18

actually negative, which means the

9:20

bottom half of America is spending more

9:22

than they bring in after taxes and

9:24

running a loss every single month. So,

9:26

it's not just that they're missing a

9:27

safety net, it's that they're sinking

9:29

deeper and deeper every month. That's

9:32

the divide. The richer pulling away,

9:34

while everyone else is borrowing to keep

9:36

their heads above water. It's the same

9:38

country, but completely different

9:39

Americas. And for years economists had a

9:41

name for this, the K-shaped economy.

9:44

Winners on the top arm, losers on the

9:46

bottom one, and the gap between them

9:48

stretching wider. It's the phrase the

9:50

rich get richer and the poor get poorer

9:52

drawn as a letter. But that's not the

9:54

true shape of the US economy anymore.

9:57

The more honest shape of the American

9:58

economy right now is an E. Here's what

10:01

it would look like. Picture a normal

10:02

letter E, three horizontal bars same

10:05

length, stacked evenly. Now take the top

10:08

bar and stretch it way out, far past the

10:10

other two. Leave the bottom bar low,

10:12

down near the floor, and take that

10:14

middle bar and tilt it so it slopes

10:16

downward. That's the United States

10:17

economy. It's three different classes

10:20

living three different lives. The top

10:22

bar is the richest 10% the ownership

10:24

class. Their wealth lives in stocks and

10:27

real estate, and both have been on a

10:28

tear. Home prices are up around 55%

10:31

since 2020. The market is up over 120%.

10:35

So this group has watched their net

10:37

worth explode in recent years. They

10:39

pulled away from everyone else because

10:40

they own the assets that are being

10:42

inflated. Then there's the bottom bar,

10:44

down on the floor. It's the bottom half

10:46

of the country, the 67 million

10:48

households that own about 1% of the

10:50

stock market. This is everything we just

10:52

covered, the negative savings rate, the

10:54

survival debt, the groceries split into

10:56

four payments. They don't own the assets

10:58

going up. They're just trying to stay

10:59

afloat. And finally, the middle bar,

11:02

everyone else in between, the households

11:04

whose raises got eaten by inflation. The

11:07

bar is tilted downward because something

11:09

quiet is happening to this group.

11:10

They're slipping down. Heather Long, the

11:13

chief economist at Navy Federal Credit

11:14

Union, pointed to a clear shift taking

11:17

place right now. She said, "We've seen

11:19

in our data a pronounced shift to

11:21

spending at warehouse and discount

11:23

stores like Costco, Walmart, and Aldi,

11:26

migrating away from the Whole Foods type

11:27

of experiences." This is the class of

11:30

Americans with a thin layer of breathing

11:32

room left, and they can feel it getting

11:33

thinner by the day. And before we wrap

11:36

this video up, I'm curious where you

11:37

stand. I want to hear how you feel about

11:39

the economy. Drop a comment and let me

11:41

know where you land on things. Because

11:43

here's what I see. The top 10% of

11:46

households are pulling away with a

11:47

collective 68% of the total net worth in

11:50

the country and a little over half of

11:52

all the income. The middle 40% hold

11:54

around 29% of the net worth and earn

11:56

about a third of the income. And then

11:58

the bottom half of Americans are left

12:00

with about 2 and 1/2% of the net worth

12:02

and roughly 10% of the income. It's the

12:05

leftover split between 67 million

12:07

households. And when you zoom out, the

12:09

gap between these groups isn't holding

12:11

steady. It's widening. That gap is

12:13

exactly why the news and your bank

12:15

account never seem to line up. Because

12:17

add up all the wealth in the country,

12:18

all the gains in the market, and all the

12:20

other lines going up into the right, and

12:22

you'll see a booming economy. But what

12:24

those charts can't tell you is who is

12:26

actually holding any of it. That's how

12:28

you get a stock market at record highs,

12:30

while the way people feel about the

12:31

economy sits at record lows. Because

12:34

it's the same country, but completely

12:36

different Americas.

12:39

>> [music]

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