HomeVideos

The Economy's Booming… Just Not For Everyone

Now Playing

The Economy's Booming… Just Not For Everyone

Transcript

366 segments

0:00

The stock market just hit its 23rd

0:01

record high this year. Home prices are

0:04

higher than ever before and net worth in

0:06

America has never been larger. By the

0:08

numbers, this is one of the richest

0:10

moments in the history of the country.

0:12

But at the same time, consumer sentiment

0:14

toward the economy has fallen to its

0:15

lowest level ever recorded. It's lower

0:18

than the early '80s recession, lower

0:20

than the 2008 global financial crisis,

0:23

and lower than during the pandemic

0:24

lockdowns. So, there's a clear

0:26

disconnect between what the data says

0:28

about the economy and what people say

0:30

they're experiencing in their day-to-day

0:31

lives. And you can see it up close by

0:33

looking at the most boring account in

0:35

America. Because the average 401k in

0:37

America just hit a record high, over

0:39

160,000.

0:41

And in the same year retirement account

0:43

balances hit a record high, a record

0:45

number of people were also cashing them

0:46

out early, willing to pay the penalty

0:48

just to get access to the money. About

0:50

6% of savers rated their retirement,

0:53

which is roughly triple the rate before

0:54

the pandemic. Of those hardship

0:56

withdrawals, 36% of them were to avoid

0:59

foreclosure or eviction, 31% were due to

1:02

medical expenses, and 13% were to cover

1:04

tuition-related expenses. So, while on

1:07

paper we're all living in the same

1:08

economy, the reality for millions of

1:10

Americans is the economy feels like

1:12

completely different worlds. Which

1:14

raises the question, how is this even

1:16

possible? How can the data show a

1:18

booming economy while the average person

1:20

feels the exact opposite? Well, here's

1:22

what almost nobody will say out loud.

1:24

Both of these economies are real. The

1:26

problem is that the American economy

1:28

looks very different depending on where

1:30

you stand. Because what we talked about

1:32

earlier is rising asset prices, and it

1:34

doesn't lift the country evenly. It's

1:36

not weather. The trillions of dollars

1:37

that get created when the market climbs

1:39

doesn't fall on everyone like rain. It

1:42

lands in specific accounts belonging to

1:45

specific people. And if you don't own

1:46

those accounts, the record highs aren't

1:48

really happening to you. They're just a

1:50

headline you scroll past on the way to

1:52

your 9-to-5 job. So, the real question

1:54

was never whether the economy is

1:56

booming. It is. The real question is who

1:58

benefits from it. When the market prints

2:00

another record, whose account does that

2:02

money actually flow into? And to answer

2:04

that question, you just have to follow

2:06

the paper trail. So, that's exactly what

2:08

I did. There are about 134 million

2:11

households in America. According to the

2:13

Federal Reserve's own data, the richest

2:16

1% of them, around 1.3 million

2:18

households, own more than half of all

2:21

the stocks in the country. And if you

2:23

zoom out to the top 10% of wealthiest

2:25

households in America, which is about 13

2:27

million households, they own roughly 87%

2:30

of all the stocks, which means the

2:32

bottom 90% of the country, around 120

2:35

million households, own just 13% of the

2:37

stock market between them. And the

2:39

further down you go, the worse it gets.

2:41

The teachers, the nurses, the bus

2:44

drivers, the people who run the

2:45

day-to-day of this country, the bottom

2:47

half of Americans, those 67 million

2:50

households own just 1% of the stock

2:52

market. Not 1% each, 1% total, split

2:57

between all 67 million households. The

2:59

usual response to this is that almost

3:01

everyone owns some stocks now. And

3:03

technically, there's some truth to that,

3:05

because it's estimated about 58% of

3:07

Americans own some stock, usually inside

3:10

a 401k. But owning some stocks and

3:13

owning enough to matter are two very

3:14

different things. Because for the bottom

3:16

half of the country, the median stock

3:18

holdings are about $13,000.

3:20

But for the top 10%, well, that number

3:23

is around $600,000.

3:25

That's a 48-fold difference. And when

3:27

you put actual dollar figures to that

3:29

gap, the scale becomes impossible to

3:31

ignore. In 2025, the stock market

3:34

returned about 16%. For the bottom half

3:36

of the country, that's a paper gain of

3:38

about $2,000. But for the top 10%, that

3:41

same 16% return in the market handed

3:44

them over about $96,000.

3:46

And this is just 1 year we're looking

3:48

at. Now, consider that the market has

3:50

has over 120% since 2020. So, while

3:53

participation in the market got

3:54

democratized, the dollars never did. The

3:57

richest households who own almost all

3:59

the stocks benefit from almost all the

4:01

gains, while the bottom half of

4:03

Americans fight for the scraps. But,

4:05

let's forget about the charts for a

4:06

second and look at the ground level,

4:08

because the story you keep getting told

4:10

is simple. The consumer is strong,

4:12

spending is holding up, the economy is

4:14

fine. And on the surface, it could

4:17

appear that way. But, the truth about

4:18

the average American consumer isn't in

4:20

the headline. It's in their wallets, and

4:23

you have to start with the money coming

4:24

in. Last month, average hourly earnings

4:26

were up about 3.6% from a year earlier,

4:29

which sounds like a raise, except over

4:31

that same stretch, inflation was up

4:33

3.8%, which means the raise got eaten by

4:36

inflation before it ever landed. So,

4:38

before the average American spends a

4:40

single dollar, they're already losing

4:41

ground. And this is being felt

4:43

everywhere. Gallup held a survey where

4:45

they asked Americans to name the single

4:47

biggest financial problem facing their

4:49

family. The top answer wasn't low wages,

4:52

and it wasn't unemployment. It was the

4:54

cost of living. High cost of living and

4:56

inflation was named by 31% of Americans

4:58

as the single most important financial

5:00

problem facing their family today, which

5:03

is near the highest level seen in the

5:04

more than 20 years Gallup has run this

5:06

survey. And once you remember that

5:08

prices are up over 28% since the start

5:10

of 2020, it isn't hard to see why 55% of

5:14

Americans say their financial situation

5:16

is getting worse. So, add this all up

5:18

and it leads to one question. If the

5:20

average Americans finances look this

5:22

grim, how is consumer spending still

5:24

going up? Where's the money coming from?

5:26

And there's an answer. It's coming from

5:28

the future, from debt. The first place

5:31

is credit cards. Americans are now

5:33

carrying about 1.25 trillion dollars of

5:36

credit card debt, and the average

5:37

interest rate on these credit cards is

5:39

now sitting around 23%. And this isn't

5:42

the rich chasing credit card points or

5:43

airport lounge access. It's the

5:46

opposite. Among people who carry credit

5:48

card debt, Bankrate found that 33% site

5:51

day-to-day expenses as the primary

5:53

source of their debt. So, they're not

5:55

financing a vacation. They're financing

5:57

just to keep going. There's even a new

5:59

name for this. It's called survival

6:01

debt. But before we get into just how

6:03

bad this survival debt problem actually

6:05

is, a quick pause. Because let's talk

6:07

about a problem we've all dealt with. It

6:09

doesn't matter what you do for a living,

6:11

consultant, student, analyst, teacher,

6:13

or just the unlucky person who got

6:15

tasked with making the presentation at

6:17

work. At some point, we've all been the

6:19

slide monkey. You start with a simple

6:21

goal, make a presentation. 3 hours

6:24

later, you're still resizing boxes,

6:26

aligning icons, changing fonts for the

6:28

fifth time, and wondering how a task

6:30

that should have taken less than 20

6:31

minutes somehow consumed your entire

6:33

day. Which brings us to today's sponsor,

6:36

Gamma. And the reason I like Gamma is

6:38

simple. Gamma isn't just a presentation

6:40

software. It's the bridge between messy

6:42

ideas and structured output. Because

6:45

sometimes I need to see an idea laid out

6:46

in front of me before I know if it

6:48

actually works. That's where Gamma comes

6:50

in. With Gamma, I can start with a

6:52

prompt, existing content, files, links,

6:55

or one of the more than 100-plus

6:57

ready-to-use templates. Then I just dump

6:59

in all my research and let Gamma do the

7:01

heavy lifting. What used to be scattered

7:03

notes and half-formed thoughts turns

7:05

into something structured, organized,

7:07

and easy to work with. And the best

7:09

part? Everything is fully customizable.

7:11

So, I can rearrange sections, expand on

7:13

ideas, or customize the design to match

7:16

my own style. So, whether you're

7:17

building a presentation, organizing

7:19

research, or working through a new idea,

7:21

Gamma takes care of the tedious

7:23

busywork, so you can spend more time

7:25

focusing on what actually matters. If

7:27

you're interested, you can check out

7:29

Gamma using the link below or in the

7:31

pinned comment. Thank you to Gamma for

7:33

sponsoring this video. Now, back to

7:35

survival debt. Because what started as

7:36

just a slight concern is quickly

7:38

becoming a full-blown crisis for

7:40

millions of Americans. Mike Croxon, who

7:42

runs the National Foundation for Credit

7:44

Counseling, which is the largest

7:45

non-profit credit counseling network in

7:47

the country, summed it up best. He said,

7:50

"We are seeing a disturbing shift from

7:52

discretionary debt to survival debt."

7:54

And the scary part about this kind of

7:56

debt is for the people in it, there's

7:58

usually no clear way out, which is why,

8:00

according to Bankrate, 61% of people

8:03

with credit card debt have now been

8:04

carrying the debt for at least a year.

8:06

This is an 8-point increase since 2024.

8:09

And it doesn't just stop at credit

8:10

cards. There's another new kind of debt

8:12

that's spreading fast. You've probably

8:14

seen the memes. People financing a

8:16

Chipotle burrito by splitting it into

8:18

four payments. This new kind of debt is

8:20

a form of financing that lets people buy

8:22

something today and pay for it in

8:24

smaller installments over time. It's

8:26

called buy now, pay later, and it used

8:28

to just be for things like furniture and

8:30

concert tickets. But now more than 90

8:32

million Americans use it. According to

8:34

LendingTree, more than a quarter of buy

8:36

now, pay later users say they've used

8:38

these loans for groceries. And more than

8:40

half say they couldn't make ends meet

8:41

without using it. So, a significant

8:43

chunk of the country is now financing

8:45

their trip to the grocery store just to

8:47

get through the week. And there's one

8:49

last piece of the puzzle that shows just

8:51

how scary things have gotten. It's the

8:52

thing that's supposed to catch a family

8:54

when something breaks, savings. The

8:57

personal savings rate has dropped to

8:58

about 2.6% near the lowest level on

9:01

record and down from 5.5% a year ago.

9:05

And it gets much worse. Economists at

9:07

the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the

9:08

Bureau of Economic Analysis ran the

9:10

numbers on savings across the income

9:12

scale, and they found that for the

9:14

bottom half of the country, more than 65

9:16

million households, the savings rate is

9:18

actually negative, which means the

9:20

bottom half of America is spending more

9:22

than they bring in after taxes and

9:24

running a loss every single month. So,

9:26

it's not just that they're missing a

9:27

safety net, it's that they're sinking

9:29

deeper and deeper every month. That's

9:32

the divide. The richer pulling away,

9:34

while everyone else is borrowing to keep

9:36

their heads above water. It's the same

9:38

country, but completely different

9:39

Americas. And for years economists had a

9:41

name for this, the K-shaped economy.

9:44

Winners on the top arm, losers on the

9:46

bottom one, and the gap between them

9:48

stretching wider. It's the phrase the

9:50

rich get richer and the poor get poorer

9:52

drawn as a letter. But that's not the

9:54

true shape of the US economy anymore.

9:57

The more honest shape of the American

9:58

economy right now is an E. Here's what

10:01

it would look like. Picture a normal

10:02

letter E, three horizontal bars same

10:05

length, stacked evenly. Now take the top

10:08

bar and stretch it way out, far past the

10:10

other two. Leave the bottom bar low,

10:12

down near the floor, and take that

10:14

middle bar and tilt it so it slopes

10:16

downward. That's the United States

10:17

economy. It's three different classes

10:20

living three different lives. The top

10:22

bar is the richest 10% the ownership

10:24

class. Their wealth lives in stocks and

10:27

real estate, and both have been on a

10:28

tear. Home prices are up around 55%

10:31

since 2020. The market is up over 120%.

10:35

So this group has watched their net

10:37

worth explode in recent years. They

10:39

pulled away from everyone else because

10:40

they own the assets that are being

10:42

inflated. Then there's the bottom bar,

10:44

down on the floor. It's the bottom half

10:46

of the country, the 67 million

10:48

households that own about 1% of the

10:50

stock market. This is everything we just

10:52

covered, the negative savings rate, the

10:54

survival debt, the groceries split into

10:56

four payments. They don't own the assets

10:58

going up. They're just trying to stay

10:59

afloat. And finally, the middle bar,

11:02

everyone else in between, the households

11:04

whose raises got eaten by inflation. The

11:07

bar is tilted downward because something

11:09

quiet is happening to this group.

11:10

They're slipping down. Heather Long, the

11:13

chief economist at Navy Federal Credit

11:14

Union, pointed to a clear shift taking

11:17

place right now. She said, "We've seen

11:19

in our data a pronounced shift to

11:21

spending at warehouse and discount

11:23

stores like Costco, Walmart, and Aldi,

11:26

migrating away from the Whole Foods type

11:27

of experiences." This is the class of

11:30

Americans with a thin layer of breathing

11:32

room left, and they can feel it getting

11:33

thinner by the day. And before we wrap

11:36

this video up, I'm curious where you

11:37

stand. I want to hear how you feel about

11:39

the economy. Drop a comment and let me

11:41

know where you land on things. Because

11:43

here's what I see. The top 10% of

11:46

households are pulling away with a

11:47

collective 68% of the total net worth in

11:50

the country and a little over half of

11:52

all the income. The middle 40% hold

11:54

around 29% of the net worth and earn

11:56

about a third of the income. And then

11:58

the bottom half of Americans are left

12:00

with about 2 and 1/2% of the net worth

12:02

and roughly 10% of the income. It's the

12:05

leftover split between 67 million

12:07

households. And when you zoom out, the

12:09

gap between these groups isn't holding

12:11

steady. It's widening. That gap is

12:13

exactly why the news and your bank

12:15

account never seem to line up. Because

12:17

add up all the wealth in the country,

12:18

all the gains in the market, and all the

12:20

other lines going up into the right, and

12:22

you'll see a booming economy. But what

12:24

those charts can't tell you is who is

12:26

actually holding any of it. That's how

12:28

you get a stock market at record highs,

12:30

while the way people feel about the

12:31

economy sits at record lows. Because

12:34

it's the same country, but completely

12:36

different Americas.

12:39

>> [music]

Interactive Summary

The video highlights a significant disconnect in the US economy: while official data shows record highs in the stock market, home prices, and overall net worth, consumer sentiment is at an all-time low. This paradox is attributed to the highly uneven distribution of wealth. The top 10% of households own the vast majority of assets and have seen their net worth soar, benefiting from market gains. In stark contrast, the bottom half of Americans are struggling with stagnant real wages due to inflation, the rising cost of living, and increasing "survival debt" from credit cards and 'buy now, pay later' schemes, often just to cover daily necessities. Many in this group have a negative savings rate, spending more than they earn each month. The economy is characterized as an "E-shaped" model, where the wealthy thrive, the middle class experiences a decline in financial stability, and the lower half struggles to stay afloat, demonstrating different economic realities within the same country.

Suggested questions

8 ready-made prompts