Cisco Rides AI Boom as Stock Surges Higher
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We are on the verge of entering into what we call a networking supercycle,
and you can see it in our results over the course of the past
few years as well, there's been a tremendous amount of momentum.
And the reason for that is, you know, there's if you take a step back and say
what's happening in the market right now, there's two major phenomenons that
are occurring that are very, very poignant to what we're talking about.
The first one is that these we're moving from chat bots to agents for these
agents can conduct tasks and jobs for us almost fully autonomously.
And these agents tend to be far more consumptive in their patterns of usage
on network bandwidth compared to humans. And so while a human might use X amount
of network bandwidth to conduct a task, an agent does 450% more to conduct the
same tasks. Um, and so you just need more network
bandwidth than what you would have otherwise.
And there's going to be trillions of agents around the world.
So that's the first major kind of shift that's happening.
The second one is we're living in a world that's post mythos, um, which is
the model that anthropic had built that actually can really help with
identifying vulnerabilities at a much faster pace with an infrastructure.
And in that world, what you're going to start to see is, you know, protecting
infrastructure and having security and safety be something that's actually
organized with that machine scale is a very important thing.
So these two dynamics and then the third one being physically, which is around
the corner, make networking at the center of it all.
So you'll see that inferencing is much more or just as much network and memory
constrained as as it is compute constrained.
Now we want to ask you about methods. But before we get there, let me just ask
you how Cisco is kind of transforming its business to deal with the kind of
demand the supercycle that you're talking about.
I imagine that's manifest in all of the data center demand that we're seeing
across this country and around the world.
What are you doing differently? How are you meeting that demand as a
company? Yeah, we've you know, one of the things
that we've been very, very focused on is making sure that as the demand explodes,
that we've actually got in our supply chain in order as well.
The good news about Cisco is we are one of the few companies in the world that
are fully vertically integrated platforms.
So we make our own silicon, we make our own optics, which is what communicates
the data between them, between ships, within a data center, or even across
data centers that might be hundreds of kilometers apart.
And then we make our own hardware and systems, and then our own operating
system and software and platforms around security and observability.
So you've got a full stack. And one of the things that we have to do
is get ahead and make sure that we can start forecasting, because if you just
look at last quarter, our product orders on a basis of like, you know, 63 billion
grew 35%. So, um, there's a tremendous amount of
kind of momentum in the business. We've seen that reflected in our stock
price, of course, which I don't check every day.
But like it's it's it's important to know that, that when there's not much
demand signal that you have to make sure that it becomes a supply constrained
world and you have to keep the supply going, which is where we are focused
quite a bit on, in addition to the technology innovation that we continue
to keep moving faster than I have ever seen a company the size moved before and
due to I have to go back to meet those. And I'm glad you said it because it's
been this mythos. Mythos.
Yes, we will follow your lead,
but for whatever reason,
you are one of the few companies who has gotten their hands on this.
So what have you learned? Are you more worried?
Less concerned? Like what are your thoughts on it at
this point? Well, one of the things that is
important is the, uh, as I becomes more and more prominent, you know, mythos
happens to be a catalytic event. But if you just look, in general, what
we've had over the past 30 years is this notion where the adversary, the bad
folks of always have an advantage over the defenders or the good folks.
Um, and, uh, the reason for that is because the adversary has to be right.
Once the defender has to be right every single time.
This is the first time that you might actually see that if we can coordinate
ourselves and companies can coordinate themselves to say, I'm going to make
sure that my defenses are machine scale rather than human scale, and we can
actually have a time advantage because, uh, mythos was made available to
companies like us before and got made available to the world at large, which
is when the bad folks got to get a handle on it.
Uh, you could start to see an asymmetric move where the defenders might have an
asymmetric advantage over the adversaries over time.
A big question, I think that's front of mine for everybody is what AI is going
to do to the labor force. And I saw that Cisco announced plans to
have some layoffs soon. And I'm curious, is that tied into the
AI story? How do you think about the way that I
is, is dislocating the workforce and how it might going forward?
Yeah. So the the restructuring that we
announced actually had nothing to do with, uh, cost efficiency.
It was more on reallocation of dollars. We wanted to make sure that we put the
dollars in higher growth areas. So we will actually see an increase in
all banks, not a decrease year over year as we move forward.
So we're investing in the business rather than taking away from it.
Just to be very clear, um, as you start to think about the, um, the job
situation and what people have talked about.
The common concerns have been, well, I was going to take all jobs.
We're going to be sitting on a beach staring at the ocean.
I was going to do everything for us. What we found is actually exactly the
opposite. As you know, we are one of the largest
users. From a coding perspective.
We have 30,000 engineers or over 30,000 engineers, and they all use, um, uh, you
know, codecs from OpenAI as well as cloud code to go out and write code.
We, in fact, have our first product that's now written 100% with AI, and
we're going to have about half a dozen products by the end of the year.
That would be 100% written where they are.
By the end of next year, 70% of all of our code will be written with AI.
And the things that we're finding that are surprising and counterintuitive is
with all this code written with AI, we are seeing many, many more human
bottlenecks than not. And so I actually think maybe this is
contrarian in the thinking. I think you will see an increase in jobs
rather than a decrease in jobs because of AI.
Um, and um, but what you will see is a lot of reconfiguration of how jobs are
actually being done. And that's something that the delta
between someone who is eye fluent and someone who's not a fluent is not going
to be a 20% gap of productivity. It's going to be like 50 as well.
And so the people that know I role will be in exceptionally high demand.
And that's actually going to continue to persist.
I don't think that changes in and stays. Uh, I have to ask you, Cisco used to get
painted with the same brush as memory, kind of cyclical, low, low and cyclical,
slow and low. Um, what would you say now?
Because it seems like it's not the case. I mean, is this a new era for Cisco?
You know, I when I took over the job of running oil products, um, uh, two years
ago, I had said in a year you will see Cisco look very different.
In two years will be unrecognizable. It does help to have 270 billion add it
to the market cap. But I won't say this, that, um,
fundamentally, the way in which we are operating and the way in which we are
innovating is that, you know, we like to think of ourselves as one of the world's
largest startups. And it is truly the case.
And what you're seeing right now is not just, uh, cyclicality.
It is a secular shift. And when that kind of secular shift
happens, or you have a platform shift of AI being something which is not just a
technology that's out of these are digital coworkers that become additional
teammates on our teams, which increase capacity or, um, for the corpus of
humanity by, by a thousand acts. It becomes a very, very different kind
of, um, you know, dynamic, because all the assumptions you have around the
infrastructure are temporarily changed to permanently changed.
Um, what's the level of throughput you're going to need?
And that actually is going to create a in a network kind of supercycle in our
mind. And uh, it's already created an
infrastructure supercycle. Before we let you go, we're talking to
you on the eve of Cisco Live in Las Vegas.
Big event for for you in the company. Can you give us any sneak peek of what
you plan to to debut there and what you think the focus of that conference is
going to be this year? Give it give us a come on.
Uh, I was told that I need to give you folks some kind of if I can do that.
But, um, you know, we, uh, we have 25,000 of our closest customers that
that tend to come and, uh, assemble in Vegas, and we try to do once a year of
the entire kind of what are the new innovations that we're coming out with?
Um, and, uh, it's it's for our most loyal customers and the ones who are,
um, um, you know, really, really focused on running their businesses on us.
What we've found is, as you've seen, this kind of supercycle for
infrastructure, the way in which organizations manage infrastructure has
actually not kept off. And so it's very complex to manage
infrastructure. So I think you will see you should
expect to see a fundamentally different way with AI and agents than
infrastructure gets managed for organizations and dramatically
simplifies that. The exclusive I'll give you, though, is
we're going to have, um, a whole new era of switches and routers and firewalls
and Wi-Fi access points For updating the infrastructure because up until now,
what was happening was the constraints were largely in, um, uh, in the data
center, but where you needed to do things.
But now what's happening with inferencing is it's no longer just
constrained to the data center. Data centers and hyperscalers are moving
at a really fast pace. We're growing triple digits in that side
of the house, uh, for AI workloads. But when you come to even people sitting
at the desks, uh, that have a laptop will have a mac mini by themselves, and
they'll have 100 agents starting to do work.
Now imagine that gets to be the common way that everyone does work.
You're going to have trillions of agents, and these agents are going to
create so much more traffic, and it's going to require so much more security
and inspection that we feel like the, uh, the, uh, the, the entire networking
apparatus has to get upgraded. And that's what we're actually
announcing. So, uh, don't tell me that I didn't give
you the exclusive, but, um, um, that was, uh, uh, that's something that's
only from Bloomberg. We will take it to, to thank you very
much. Appreciate it.
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This video features a discussion with a Cisco executive about the company's role in the current 'networking supercycle' driven by AI adoption. The conversation highlights how the transition from chatbots to autonomous agents significantly increases network bandwidth demands, necessitating upgrades to infrastructure. Cisco discusses its vertical integration, its approach to security through machine-scale defenses, and its optimistic view on the impact of AI on the workforce, predicting an increase in jobs due to productivity gains. The executive also offers an exclusive preview of upcoming infrastructure announcements for Cisco Live, focusing on a new generation of networking equipment designed to handle the increased traffic and security requirements of an AI-driven, agent-heavy world.
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