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Bill Ackman: Here's What the Market is MISSING

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Bill Ackman: Here's What the Market is MISSING

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998 segments

0:00

One of the most provocative and [music]

0:01

interesting investors in the country.

0:04

>> A legendary activist investor.

0:05

>> Pershing Square CEO and founder Bill

0:08

Ackman.

0:10

>> Taking [music] a short position and

0:11

going public with it is a pretty serious

0:13

business.

0:14

Interestingly, [music] some of the best

0:15

businesses in the world are trading at

0:16

the lowest multiples.

0:18

>> We're kind of the rebirth of the

0:19

closed-end [music] investment company

0:21

universe.

0:22

>> What did you think of Zara, the CEO of

0:24

OpenAI?

0:25

>> I'm sorry.

0:26

>> CFO.

0:27

Felt like the CEO.

0:28

>> Yeah, I I was Stop with that stuff.

0:31

>> Uh actually, I was super impressed.

0:34

Uh made me a lot more bullish on OpenAI,

0:36

and I thought

0:36

>> Right?

0:37

>> I thought she should be CEO of OpenAI.

0:38

>> [laughter]

0:39

>> That's what I thought.

0:39

>> I think Sam should be I think Sam should

0:41

be chair. I think he's much better.

0:43

>> a question I wanted to ask her that we

0:44

didn't get time, which was what's it

0:45

like working with Sam?

0:47

>> I mean, that could have been like the

0:49

hours in the documentary.

0:51

>> [laughter]

0:52

>> I wanted to kick this off at So, thank

0:54

you so much for being here. We've tried

0:56

a number of times to get you to All-In,

0:58

and it's great to to finally have you.

1:00

You obviously are a legend doesn't need

1:02

much of an introduction. Lately, in the

1:05

the last number of call it years or

1:06

months or quarters or what have you, it

1:08

seems like your investment philosophy

1:11

may be changing. Your model, where

1:13

you've been activist and you've entered

1:15

positions and exited positions, and

1:16

lately you've talked a lot about more

1:18

kind of permanent long-term holdings.

1:20

Would love to hear a little bit about if

1:21

that is actually a change and how your

1:23

evolution in your investment model has

1:26

kind of changed over over time.

1:27

>> Uh sure. So, I would say the biggest

1:29

change over time is an appreciation for

1:31

the importance of I would call business

1:33

quality. Long-term, durable, protected,

1:37

non-disruptable growth, I would say.

1:39

Early days, you're

1:41

smaller, more liquid investor, you don't

1:43

have to think as long-term. As you

1:45

become a bigger, concentrated investor,

1:48

uh

1:49

>> [snorts]

1:49

>> and over time you learn the importance

1:51

of durable kind of growth. That's the

1:52

most important factor.

1:54

Uh I would say I'm as

1:56

activist as I've ever been um but more

1:59

of it's on Twitter than it than uh I

2:02

would say

2:03

in the corporate context. And the reason

2:04

for that is when I started in uh

2:07

Pershing Square

2:08

no one sort of knew who we were.

2:10

And so

2:11

I actually one of our first investments

2:13

was Wendy's International. Wendy's owned

2:15

Tim Hortons, the Canadian coffee and

2:17

donut chain, and the value of Tim

2:18

Hortons was more than the entire value

2:19

of Wendy's. We had this very simple

2:21

idea: buy Wendy's, spin off Tim Hortons,

2:24

double our money.

2:25

And uh we bought 10% of the company and

2:27

I called the CEO and he didn't return my

2:29

call. And I called him again, he didn't

2:31

return my call. I literally couldn't get

2:32

a return phone call. That was the

2:34

beginning. Uh so we actually I called a

2:37

friend who worked at Blackstone and

2:38

Steve Schwarzman agreed to write a

2:39

fairness opinion on what Wendy's would

2:41

be worth if we spun off Tim Hortons.

2:43

We kind of mailed it in, filed it

2:44

publicly, and 6 weeks later they spun

2:46

off Tim Hortons.

2:48

>> And then the CEO finally called me back

2:50

and uh he thanked me uh and he had

2:53

gotten fired uh

2:55

and and uh but he thanked me cuz he had

2:57

a huge exit package and

2:58

>> [laughter]

2:59

>> and

2:59

and he was very happy. But so in the

3:01

beginning we couldn't get a return phone

3:03

call, so we had to and we were small, so

3:05

we had to go to a conference and we had

3:07

to, you know, do presentations and go on

3:09

CNBC. What happens over time is you join

3:11

boards of directors, you become known as

3:13

an investor, you know, we're kind of a

3:14

constructive

3:16

shareholder. Um I know pretty much every

3:18

CEO in the S&P 500 either directly or

3:21

one person removed. And you know, maybe

3:24

I age I've aged a bit um but you build

3:27

kind of a reputation and today we buy a

3:29

stake in a company

3:30

sometimes they'll put out a tweet saying

3:32

you know, we welcome Pershing Square as

3:33

a shareholder, but they open the door

3:34

for us. You know, in the beginning we

3:36

had to bang down the door and today so

3:38

we we get very deeply involved in our

3:40

companies if it's needed. [snorts]

3:41

Uh other companies we own, there's no

3:43

nothing for us to do, just be the you

3:45

know, just clap.

3:46

>> Hm. So you are you are considered a

3:48

value add investor.

3:49

>> Yeah, but we only want to add value. I

3:51

The conversation last night was kind of

3:53

an interesting one. You know, the best

3:54

investments are one where you don't need

3:55

to join the board and do anything.

3:57

>> Well, that may be in a startup, but in a

3:59

mature business, it may be

4:00

>> No, I think in in the public company

4:02

context, one of the valuable things we

4:04

can do, that you know, the problem of

4:05

being a public company today is kind of

4:07

the very short-term nature of markets,

4:10

analysts, etc. And obviously to run a

4:12

business, a business is a, you know, a

4:15

good one is a forever thing. And you

4:16

want to make decisions in the context of

4:18

decades sometimes or certainly three,

4:20

five years. And how can you do that when

4:22

someone's asking about the tax rate in

4:23

the second quarter?

4:25

Um and having a big shareholder on the

4:26

board, where you can kind of test ideas

4:29

out with the big shareholder before you

4:30

expose them to the public, where the big

4:32

shareholder can say, "I'm supportive of

4:34

this initiative even though it's going

4:35

to hurt earnings in the next few

4:36

quarters." is a helpful thing.

4:38

>> I just want to connect this last

4:39

conversation with Sarah to this.

4:41

Um

4:42

are you an investor in the AI complex?

4:44

And

4:46

how do you underwrite business model

4:47

quality from what you see on the outside

4:50

and in the entire complex?

4:52

>> I mean, yes, effectively we're an

4:53

investor. We're Actually today we own

4:55

Microsoft, we own Meta, we own Amazon.

4:58

Uh actually I think you're either

5:00

directly or indirectly you're invested

5:01

in AI. Yeah. Or it's a threat. So you

5:03

have to you have to understand it.

5:05

Um how do I think about AI in a business

5:08

model context?

5:08

>> model quality, yeah.

5:09

>> Look, when you're a concentrated

5:11

investor or an investor generally and

5:13

you're long-term investor, the most

5:14

important and most challenging thing to

5:16

do is determine what's the risk of

5:18

disruption. What's the risk of two guys,

5:21

two women from Stanford in a garage, you

5:23

know, coming up with something? That

5:24

risk I think has gone up uh

5:26

dramatically. This is the greatest era

5:28

in history to to build a business,

5:30

right? There's unlimited access to

5:32

compute, you know, certainly for a

5:34

startup, uh unlimited access to capital,

5:37

uh and a lot of incredible talent, which

5:40

means that the probability of your being

5:42

disrupted has gone up enormously. So the

5:44

hardest thing you have to do as an

5:45

investor is

5:47

understand, you know, and and that's

5:49

really where we spend most of our time.

5:50

>> in a moment like this then? Do you swing

5:53

towards the chaos or do you reposition

5:55

to things that are maybe more durable

5:57

and defensible from AI where the

5:59

destructibility is less?

6:01

>> What's interesting about markets is

6:02

people always

6:04

bring their eye to the new new thing.

6:06

Um and the new new thing is sort of

6:07

chips and semiconductors and energy and

6:10

that's where, you know,

6:11

uh

6:12

the shorter-term capital's going. What

6:14

tends to happen is really high-quality

6:17

things get left behind. Um and the same

6:20

thing really happened, you know, I was I

6:22

was there in 2000, you know, when the in

6:24

the in the in that sort of bubble. This

6:26

is, you know, this is different. I'm not

6:27

saying this is

6:28

um but there's some analogies and the

6:30

analogies are people got excited about

6:32

internet stocks and Berkshire Hathaway

6:34

traded at the lowest valuation I think

6:36

it ever traded at in its history as

6:37

people said, "Okay, that's all old

6:39

stuff." I think a similar thing is

6:40

happening today in a in a sense to

6:42

Amazon and Meta, Microsoft.

6:45

>> Those are the ones that

6:46

>> These are these are old-fashioned

6:47

companies in kind of this, you know, the

6:50

open AI

6:50

>> So they're undervalued in your mind?

6:52

>> Yes.

6:53

>> What else is undervalued? What about the

6:54

SaaS apocalypse though? Is it oversold

6:56

at this point?

6:57

>> Uh again, I think it's a careful

6:59

analysis. I worry more about a

7:00

Salesforce um than I do about your kind

7:03

of

7:04

um I think you got to do the work. I

7:06

think it's one company at a time, but I

7:07

think if, you know, if your software

7:09

company today, you have to be as AI

7:11

enabled as you can. You can I I think

7:14

there have been sort of monopolistic

7:17

type profit taking off of customers when

7:20

someone had a kind of a niche software

7:22

product that charging, you know, 30,000

7:24

a year or something like this. I think

7:26

those companies are really at risk. Uh

7:28

you know, Microsoft when the average

7:29

customer's paying, I don't know, 50

7:31

bucks a seat or some small number, uh

7:34

that platform's worth a lot more uh and

7:36

is less of risk.

7:37

>> I want to go back um

7:39

to COVID because you had an incredibly

7:43

viral moment

7:45

where you were on CNBC at that moment

7:48

and you pounded the table and you said

7:50

this is what's going to happen and

7:51

literally the market just ripped and you

7:54

you were

7:55

well first it went traded massively down

7:57

you were right on that side of the trade

7:58

and then you were on the right side of

7:59

the trade when it ripped back up. And

8:01

then I think it was maybe a month or two

8:02

ago I think publicly you basically

8:05

pounded the table and said this market's

8:07

going way higher.

8:08

Can you just put us in your head like

8:11

where does that

8:13

desire to be so

8:16

active and

8:18

you know you you it gives you so much

8:20

room to be wrong but then when you're

8:22

right it does add to the lore of Bill

8:24

Ackman of which you have a lot so how do

8:26

you balance that where does it come from

8:27

like why in these moments do you just

8:29

get so convicted that the that the

8:31

conviction just has to spill out and

8:33

then you're just so out there?

8:34

>> So I've always been like

8:36

my high school yearbook epithet was most

8:39

verbose. Uh me too.

8:42

>> [laughter]

8:42

>> And that and actually my my friend

8:44

actually lives around here

8:46

uh

8:46

he he has quote that he put next to my

8:48

name in my yearbook says a closed mouth

8:51

gathers no foot that was his.

8:54

And so that's kind of what I've lived by

8:55

I've always had this sort of desire to

8:56

speak the truth about things and

8:59

you know was just talking with Jake

9:01

actually we had breakfast this morning.

9:03

Uh and we're talking about my Rhonda

9:05

post do you remember that one so you

9:07

know there's just certain things that

9:08

need to be shared and discussed. But

9:10

with respect respect to markets I

9:12

actually what happened was

9:13

I was concerned about the country

9:16

because I felt we needed to have a

9:19

basically a two-week pause and this is

9:21

March of

9:23

or February I guess it was March

9:25

of 2020 and I assumed we were going to

9:27

just do a short-term shutdown let the

9:29

virus cool down as hospitals were going

9:31

to getting overwhelmed.

9:33

And

9:35

the president hadn't done that yet I was

9:36

kind of surprised by this.

9:38

And so that that was what inspired me to

9:40

go on TV as a way to reach uh President

9:43

Trump and say, "Look, we need to shut

9:44

down the country just for 2 weeks, you

9:46

know, like uh

9:47

and I said, "Look, you do this, okay?

9:49

The virus will blow over. Stocks are at

9:52

an incredibly cheap valuation. If we

9:53

handle this correctly, you're going to

9:54

make a ton of money, and we're buying."

9:57

You know, valuation is like a tether on

9:59

the market, right? When it gets too

10:00

high, it's like this rubber band that's

10:02

stretching. And inevitably, it bounces

10:04

back. But it works the other way as

10:06

well. When stocks get too cheap, there's

10:08

this, you know, the the rubber band's

10:09

actually pulling valuations up.

10:11

>> Right.

10:12

>> And and so there are there are certain

10:13

moments where it gets to that place.

10:15

And sometimes, actually, if you call

10:17

that out, it causes people to have kind

10:19

of a psychological reset.

10:20

>> What happened recently that caused you

10:22

to call that out?

10:23

>> Stocks just got crazy cheap. Just

10:25

incredibly cheap of really high-quality

10:27

companies.

10:28

>> Right.

10:28

>> What I don't know I

10:29

I don't know why

10:30

>> extremely cheap in fundamentals and

10:32

>> Fundamentals based on, you know, what's

10:34

the value of a financial asset's present

10:36

value of the cash it generates over its

10:37

life. On that basis, stocks are of

10:39

really high-quality companies are really

10:41

cheap.

10:41

>> Is there any way to underwrite and you

10:43

know, I don't want to pick on specific

10:45

companies, but we have the three that

10:46

are going public, and then you have like

10:48

a Palantir, let's say.

10:50

And these things have become in very

10:52

popular in pop culture, in maxing

10:55

on subreddits, on, you know, the

10:58

public's consciousness, high-net-worth

11:00

individuals wanting to buy into SPVs

11:03

that are double

11:05

loaded and then getting wiped off the

11:06

cap tables.

11:08

Is there any way to underwrite 100 times

11:11

revenue, 50 times revenue, 150 times

11:13

revenue in these companies, or are these

11:15

just tremendously overvalued because of

11:17

the demand side?

11:19

>> I think you underwrite a SpaceX the way

11:21

you underwrite a venture capital

11:24

investment.

11:24

>> Interesting. Explain that. Unpack it.

11:26

>> So, everyone here invests in venture,

11:28

right? You know, you bet on, you know,

11:30

who's running it, right? The talent is

11:32

enormous. Um it's people who they taught

11:35

me

11:36

I had a professor business school he

11:37

said people opportunity context deal.

11:40

So on people SpaceX

11:42

>> One of one.

11:43

>> Yeah. Opportunity one of one.

11:46

Context you know, incredible and

11:48

actually you know, feel bad for Blue

11:50

Origin but not harmful to SpaceX the

11:53

fact that you know, they're they're

11:55

biggest

11:55

>> way behind.

11:56

>> Then you get to deal, okay? That's the

11:59

more complicated question for SpaceX.

12:01

Again, we don't know what the valuation

12:02

is going to be but if it's a billion a

12:03

trillion 750 billion dollars then you

12:06

say, okay, well, let's think five years

12:08

out. What does this company look like?

12:10

You know, what is Starlink? What's the

12:12

trajectory of Starlink?

12:14

You know, SpaceX's you know, near

12:16

monopoly in terms of low cost space

12:18

launch that's going to become

12:19

increasingly important and even Amazon

12:21

is going to have to become an even

12:22

bigger customer because they're not you

12:24

know, Blue Origin's you know, and and

12:26

time I would say has become increasingly

12:29

valuable in the AI era, right? You you

12:31

delay a model we were talking David and

12:33

I were talking about the administration

12:34

and and his kind of stepping in for the

12:37

president not to sign that executive

12:38

order to kind of slow us down.

12:39

>> Allegedly.

12:40

>> You lose a month, you lose a couple of

12:42

months today and it means a lot. So I

12:44

think the only question I have and I

12:45

haven't done the math, I you know, I I

12:47

actually invested in X

12:49

I invested in XAI. I'm in an SPV.

12:52

>> Ron Baron said, Bill you got to invest

12:53

in SpaceX so

12:55

>> so I'm I'm I'm in so now I have so

12:57

obviously I'm rooting for kind of a good

12:58

outcome.

12:59

I just doesn't I haven't done the

13:01

Yeah, you have to

13:01

>> What about Anthropic, OpenAI and

13:04

Palantir?

13:04

>> Okay, I'm sorry.

13:05

>> Uh Anthropic, OpenAI, Palantir also fall

13:08

into this category. Do you underwrite

13:10

those as venture investments as well and

13:11

have you done the the work on those?

13:13

>> They're venture investments that do what

13:15

what's helpful is they're not seed or

13:18

series A, right? They're

13:20

you know, D or E but they're still like

13:22

venture investments. These companies

13:23

have proven they can generate a lot of

13:25

revenues and actually I was just saying

13:27

on Sarah, I thought she had a very, very

13:29

thoughtful

13:30

explanation on how they think about

13:32

committing capital, right? And and

13:34

that's the thing I haven't heard from on

13:36

OpenAI, which is why if I were OpenAI,

13:39

I'd be getting that message out because

13:40

you know, from the outside,

13:42

you're like, it's a pretty interesting

13:43

business model. You got a company that's

13:44

spending making capital commitments

13:46

that's massively in excess of, you know,

13:48

revenues. And how do you do that and

13:49

get, you know, it's it's degree of

13:51

difficulty, I would say, is hard.

13:52

>> Your perch on the boards of, let's call

13:55

it these more traditional Fortune 500

13:57

type businesses and your conversations

13:59

with those CEOs, how are they thinking

14:02

about AI? Is it something that they're

14:04

tipping into into with pilots? Are they

14:07

doing transformation initiatives? Do

14:09

they think this doesn't really apply to

14:11

us? We'll deal with it later. What

14:13

what's your sense of how they're

14:15

adopting or embracing AI?

14:16

>> say every CEO in America today is like,

14:19

how do I use AI? How does it apply to my

14:22

business? How is it a threat?

14:24

They got to find an internal champion.

14:25

They maybe have to recruit someone from

14:27

the outside. I would say it's on the

14:28

hierarchy of things they worry about,

14:29

it's probably number one as both an

14:31

opportunity and a threat. So, if you're

14:33

not paying attention to it, you're

14:35

you're I mean, your board is going to

14:37

be, you know, asking you with first

14:39

question every meeting about, you know,

14:40

what how we dealing with the AI threat?

14:42

How we dealing with the AI opportunity?

14:44

So, it's absolutely top of mind.

14:46

>> Are you seeing much early success? I

14:48

mean,

14:49

through your, you know, again, through

14:50

your visibility into these companies. I

14:52

mean, there's a lot of mixed signals

14:54

that we get like McKinsey did a study

14:56

and said that 95% of enterprise

14:59

initiatives actually fail. Chamath,

15:02

you've made this point around 80, 90,

15:03

that a lot of these enterprises don't

15:05

really know how to deploy AI. The the

15:08

you know, the fanciest title in Silicon

15:10

Valley these days is a forward deployed

15:12

engineer, which is basically a like an

15:15

IT consultant who can close the gap

15:17

between the promise of AI and the ROI of

15:20

it. And I think people are just trying

15:23

to figure out like how do we how do we

15:24

use this thing? I mean, have you seen

15:26

much actual success? Is this the Is this

15:29

the question right now? Is this how do

15:30

we bridge this gap?

15:31

>> So, I haven't seen much success

15:34

other than I mean, I'll give you the

15:36

Pershing Square

15:37

story. You know, we're a tiny little

15:38

company. How are we using AI today? The

15:40

first use case is really on the legal

15:42

side. Um [snorts]

15:44

and

15:44

you know, kind of almost almost you call

15:46

it a compliance back office type you

15:48

know, functionality. I think we're still

15:50

super super early in terms of big

15:52

companies using AI effectively.

15:54

>> Can I ask or test a thesis with you? You

15:57

know, the the venture underwriting model

15:59

where you think about people, you're

16:00

underwriting a founder and their

16:02

capacity to lead and redirect the

16:03

organization in a changing environment.

16:07

In technology environment, market

16:08

environment and whatnot. And we have

16:11

seen repeatedly similar success at scale

16:13

if the company is still founder led

16:15

where the founder feels like they have

16:16

the authority to make all the radical

16:18

decisions needed to make sure that that

16:20

company persists and changes as needed

16:22

in a changing environment. Have you

16:24

looked at founder led companies versus

16:26

non-founder led companies where perhaps

16:29

the founders really do have an inherent

16:31

advantage in being able to navigate the

16:33

changing environment and actually

16:35

generate outsized returns over time? And

16:37

I ask this particularly as it relates to

16:39

the SaaS apocalypse and if you take a

16:40

look at the companies that are founder

16:42

led today versus not, if you're not

16:44

founder led, you have an incentive to

16:45

not make a mistake and get fired. If

16:47

you're founder led, you don't give a

16:48

Your job is to make sure the

16:49

company

16:50

>> Yeah, I think the answer is exactly what

16:51

you said. I think the problem is that

16:52

the average life of an S&P 500 CEO is

16:55

probably

16:56

I don't know, 4 years or 3 or 3 and 1/2

16:58

years or something like this.

16:59

And you're focused on, you know, kind of

17:01

shorter term compensation. You don't

17:03

generally don't have a big economic

17:04

stake in the business. You're a founder,

17:06

this is your entire life. It's your

17:07

entire reputation. It's not like you're

17:09

going to go get another job. You got to

17:11

kind of make it work. And also when

17:12

you're in the board room, you have the

17:14

authority of either being a major

17:15

voting, you know, voice, or or a um

17:19

you've got a huge economic stake in the

17:20

company. You know, when we join a board

17:22

of a company, we're often the largest or

17:24

the sec- the largest non-index fund type

17:26

shareholder. That kind of gives us, you

17:28

know, a little bit of a disproportionate

17:29

voice in the boardroom. Imagine if you

17:31

have that and you're CEO of the company,

17:33

right? So, I think that does give you

17:34

and and also if you've gotten to be a

17:36

successful founder over time,

17:38

uh guaranteed that you've made a number

17:40

of very challenging call calls over time

17:42

that turned out to be right, otherwise

17:44

you wouldn't be there. And so, you look

17:45

at Mark Zuckerberg, right, when he

17:47

bought, I don't know, Instagram,

17:48

everyone's like shocked at the price

17:50

paid or WhatsApp, you know, they seemed

17:51

like, you know, sort of outside the you

17:53

know, the company only had, whatever, 19

17:54

employees or something when he paid a

17:56

billion something. Um but you make

17:58

enough of those calls um

18:00

and uh

18:02

you can make the other challenging call.

18:04

>> antithetical to a Ben Graham investing

18:06

model? Like, you have to have a

18:07

different set of skills as an investor

18:09

to to identify this talent versus

18:11

>> Yeah, so I mean, Ben Graham is a really

18:13

important voice for investors in that he

18:16

said, "Look, you got to think about a

18:17

business

18:18

a stock certificate is an interest in a

18:20

business as opposed to just this piece

18:21

of paper." That's probably one of his

18:23

most important kind of aphorisms. But he

18:25

was investing for the most part in

18:27

liquidations. He was in that you know,

18:29

in the days of Ben Graham where there

18:31

weren't there's no Edgar system and nor

18:34

to get a 10K filing, you had to go to

18:35

the headquarters of the company. There

18:37

were a lot of stocks trading at, you

18:38

know, basically the cash on the balance

18:39

sheet. And his business model was, you

18:41

know, buying these things at stupidly

18:42

cheap prices and eventually Um but Ben

18:45

Graham made most of his money investing

18:47

in I don't know, Geico or something. Uh

18:50

you know, not

18:50

>> Tell us a little bit about you know,

18:53

there's a sort of activist and

18:54

significant shareholder, but then

18:56

there's Howard Hughes, and you've talked

18:58

a little bit about Berkshire Hathaway

19:00

2.0 or just being inspired by that

19:02

Chamath you were inspired by for a long

19:04

time.

19:04

>> Well, Bill Bill just took Pershing

19:05

Square public.

19:06

>> Yeah, but with with the Howard Hughes

19:08

Corporation specifically, tell tell us

19:10

about that effort cuz you're operating

19:12

that business.

19:13

>> There's a book uh I think it's called

19:14

The Financial History of Berkshire

19:15

Hathaway. That's for geeks. Um it

19:18

basically this guy

19:20

went back and read every 10-K

19:23

whatever you actually went through the

19:24

filings, looked at every deal that

19:26

Buffett ever did, and you follow him

19:28

over 60-year period of time. And the

19:30

vast majority of the value he created at

19:32

Berkshire was through it actually the

19:34

ownership of insurance operation.

19:36

And what's interesting about insurance

19:38

is that

19:40

you know, running an insurance company

19:41

you have two jobs. One is you you know,

19:43

write business, right? You take risk. Um

19:46

you collect premiums in exchange for the

19:47

obligation to pay future claims. And

19:49

then you get that you get money up

19:51

front, and your responsibility is to

19:53

invest that money. Uh

19:55

the vast majority of insurance companies

19:56

focus only on the liability side of the

19:58

balance sheet. Buffett was really the

19:59

first to do focus on actually more on

20:02

the asset side of the balance sheet than

20:04

on the liability side. And over time

20:06

on the liability side, if you if you

20:07

manage the assets of an insurance

20:09

company well and the liabilities well,

20:11

you can build this enormously profitable

20:13

compounding tax-efficient machine over

20:15

time. And the question is why haven't

20:17

other people done this?

20:19

And the answer is if you're really good

20:20

at investing, you go work for a hedge

20:22

fund, you go work for Fidelity, you go

20:25

work for Wellington,

20:27

but you don't go work for an insurance

20:28

company. So the insurance company's

20:30

ability to recruit investment talent is

20:32

very limited. Buffett owned half the

20:34

company, he was really good at

20:35

investing, which is why it worked. So

20:37

what we're doing is we're you know,

20:38

Buffett started with a crappy textile

20:40

company. He effectively liquidated it

20:42

over time, reinvested in insurance, and

20:44

then invested the assets well.

20:47

Howard Hughes is actually really

20:48

interesting company, but it's a business

20:49

that Wall Street has not cared about for

20:51

a long period of time. We created it out

20:53

of the bankruptcy of of General Growth,

20:55

it was a spin-off of all the other

20:57

assets.

20:58

And it's a company that owns these small

20:59

cities. So I bet a lot of people here

21:02

have heard of Summerlin because a lot of

21:04

the tech community has moved from

21:05

California to Las Vegas,

21:07

but we own a this small city, 26,000

21:10

acres of land.

21:13

We own all the commercial land, we own

21:14

all the residential land, we sell lots

21:16

of home builders, we build a downtown,

21:18

we build buildings.

21:19

It's a bit like the Irvine company. You

21:22

know, Don Bren created probably a

21:23

hundred billion dollars of personal

21:25

wealth managing a small city. It's a

21:26

super cool company, but the time frame

21:29

is decades as opposed to quarters.

21:31

So, Wall Street's never cared, it's

21:33

always traded at a huge discount. So,

21:34

Buffett bought into a textile business

21:37

at a discount to liquidation value. At

21:39

$63 a share, you're owning Howard Hughes

21:41

at a discount to liquidation value. What

21:43

we're doing is instead of reinvesting

21:44

all the cash the business generates into

21:46

real estate, we're going to reinvest all

21:47

the cash into insurance.

21:50

We're going to next within the next week

21:51

or so.

21:52

>> You're in the business of building this

21:53

flywheel.

21:54

>> We're going to build this into a

21:55

compounding machine over the next 50

21:57

years. It's something I've always wanted

21:58

to do. We have the benefit of

22:00

understanding both the insurance side of

22:02

the business and we can manage the

22:03

assets well. You can buy it at, you

22:06

know, whatever, 60 cents on the dollar.

22:08

>> How do you think about investing the

22:09

assets of this insurance company? So,

22:11

>> So, what Buffett did is he took 100% of

22:12

the insurance float and put the money in

22:15

short-term treasuries. So, he took no

22:16

risk on kind of policy holder funds.

22:19

He took 100% of the surplus of the

22:20

insurer, the equity, and invested in

22:22

common stocks. And that's what we're

22:24

going to do.

22:25

And I think we can build a really

22:26

profitable insurance company. We're

22:27

starting at a very small scale. The

22:29

company's got like a four billion dollar

22:31

market cap. And the goal is to build it

22:32

into a trillion dollar thing over time.

22:35

Compounding. The other thing Buffett did

22:36

well is that he didn't issue any stock

22:38

or not for a very long time. So, they,

22:40

you know, he started with a million

22:41

shares and today is effectively like a

22:43

million and a half.

22:43

>> this is the future for very talented

22:46

managers like yourself versus the

22:48

traditional long short fund or do you

22:49

think they sit side by side?

22:51

>> I think it's hard to do this cuz you

22:53

need control of a public company and you

22:55

have to be not in a get-rich-quick

22:58

mindset. And there, if you're in the

22:59

get-rich-quick, it's easy to go to

23:01

Citadel and Millennium or one of these.

23:03

>> Why does it have to be public?

23:04

>> Why does it have to be public? It

23:05

doesn't. It doesn't have to be public.

23:07

>> Why did you choose to take it?

23:09

>> Uh you know, we we got here by accident,

23:12

right? So, the most successful equity

23:14

investment we've ever made is we bought

23:15

this company called General Growth. We

23:16

bought the stock of a company going

23:17

bankrupt. Sort of the most contrarian

23:19

investment you can make. Stock [snorts]

23:21

went from, you know, uh $20 market cap

23:23

to $100 million, and we bought

23:25

a basically a

23:27

uh a third of the company or 27% of the

23:29

company at uh $200 million market cap,

23:32

and there was $27 billion of debt. And

23:34

the bankruptcy emerged, and the strategy

23:36

we said is, "Look, the assets are worth

23:37

more than the liabilities. We're going

23:38

to do the first uh

23:40

restructuring where the equity gets to

23:42

keep their investment in the company."

23:43

Two years later, we emerged from Chapter

23:45

11. The stock went from $0.34 to $34.

23:48

But, part of the restructuring was

23:49

spinning off this thing called Howard

23:51

Hughes. It was really all of the junk

23:53

that didn't belong in the company that

23:54

the analysts hated. Um and so, we we did

23:57

it

23:58

uh with sort of an inverted investment.

24:01

And you know, 15 years later, we haven't

24:03

really created much value with it. So,

24:04

we said, "Look, we've got to you know,

24:05

the market doesn't like this thing. The

24:07

market A company has to earn a return in

24:10

excess of its cost of capital in order

24:11

for a stock to go up.

24:13

And the you know, Elon's done an amazing

24:14

job keeping the cost of capital of his

24:16

companies really low. You know, if

24:17

SpaceX goes public at a trillion $750

24:19

billion,

24:20

it'll probably be the lowest cost of

24:21

capital

24:22

equity capital transaction in the

24:25

history of the world. The problem with

24:26

this company, cuz it's real estate, cuz

24:28

it's development, cuz it's land

24:29

ownership, the market says, "The cost of

24:31

capital is really high, and you can only

24:32

earn a certain return on real estate."

24:34

So, what we're doing is we're

24:35

repurposing the real estate assets, and

24:37

we're transforming the company into a

24:39

much higher returning Well, the last few

24:41

years, you've become incredibly famous.

24:42

I mean, just to kind of put a fine point

24:44

on the word. How does that

24:46

change and influence the way that

24:48

markets work? Because like, you know,

24:50

your voice gets amplified now.

24:52

You also have other places where other

24:54

voices get heard, many people's whose

24:56

names you don't even know. You go into

24:57

Wall Street bets and every random Tom,

24:59

Dick, and Harry with an opinion. Tell us

25:01

the way the markets have changed with

25:05

notoriety, fame, social media influence,

25:08

not just yours, but in general.

25:09

>> Yeah, I don't think markets have changed

25:11

as a result of anything that's happened

25:13

with me or follower growth on on

25:15

Twitter. I think the Ryan Cohen guy, you

25:18

know, the GameStop guy.

25:20

>> Yeah.

25:20

>> You know, that is a change in markets

25:22

when

25:23

um you know, a stock can trade at a

25:25

valuation well above the its value

25:29

simply on the personality and the

25:31

ability to

25:33

>> Vibes.

25:34

>> Vibes.

25:34

>> To gather up, you know, armies of

25:37

followers. You know, the

25:38

fascinating thing about liquidity and

25:41

valuation is

25:43

the higher a stock price goes

25:46

and it's going to sound sort of

25:48

intuitive, but it's not.

25:50

The more valuable the company becomes.

25:52

You know, there's [snorts] actually the

25:53

increase in value the company increases

25:55

the value of the company, right? Because

25:57

it lowers the cost of capital, it gives

25:59

you more flexibility, gives you the

26:00

ability to issue stock, raise capital,

26:04

acquire other businesses. And so, you

26:06

know, getting back to the Elon example,

26:09

uh it's really his I mean, I would say

26:11

he's a better example of this. We've not

26:12

taken advantage of this at all. Maybe we

26:14

should. But he builds an army of

26:16

believers and followers

26:18

uh that enabled

26:20

uh Tesla to be built.

26:22

Um

26:23

You know, the

26:23

>> Let me maybe help Marcus.

26:24

>> And as we wrap up with a somewhat of a

26:26

pointed question, you're an incredible

26:28

investor. If there are people if we want

26:30

to be maximally aligned with Bill

26:32

Ackman,

26:34

is the best way to be an LP in Pershing

26:36

Square or is it best to go into the

26:38

market and buy

26:40

>> So, we have two I think there are three

26:42

ways you can invest with us that are all

26:45

different and a little cheap different

26:46

things. One is something I think called

26:48

Pershing Square, which is the management

26:49

company of Pershing Square. I think it's

26:51

one of the most interesting, kind of

26:53

intellectually, businesses because it's

26:55

a

26:56

uh it's the entity that receives fees on

26:58

these three permanent capital vehicles

27:00

we manage. So, it's a royalty on the

27:02

compounding of investments in these

27:05

entities. And there's no CapEx in the

27:07

business. So, we're going to pay out

27:08

basically all of our profits

27:10

and we're going to grow as quickly as

27:11

the underlying assets uh compound. So,

27:14

[snorts] if you invested a dollar in

27:15

Pershing Square, you know, 22 years ago,

27:19

that's that became

27:21

um

27:22

you know, uh

27:23

20 uh

27:25

I think

27:26

I should know this number. It's like 27

27:28

or 28 times net of all fees.

27:30

>> Wow.

27:30

>> Okay. Over over 22 years. Had we charged

27:33

the fees of this public vehicle, uh that

27:35

number would have been um you know, uh

27:38

37 times.

27:39

>> I'm sorry. No, more than something in

27:41

the mid-40s.

27:42

>> Okay.

27:42

>> What this means is we now have a public

27:44

vehicle that charges only a 2% fee.

27:46

We've got a one in London that charges

27:48

an incentive fee. If we compound at the

27:50

rates we have historically, we'll have

27:52

35 times the assets under management

27:55

uh in 22 years. So, we'll go from 25

27:56

billion of assets to something

27:57

approaching a trillion. We don't have to

27:59

hire another person.

28:01

Uh and we don't have to spend another

28:02

dollar, if you will, on overhead. That

28:04

That's a pretty interesting business.

28:05

So, I like that one. So, Pershing

28:06

Square.

28:07

You want to invest with us as an

28:08

investor, invest in something called

28:10

PSUS. And you own a portfolio of our

28:12

best ideas and it's trading at an 18%

28:14

discount to cash. You want to believe

28:16

that we can build the next Berkshire

28:17

Hathaway, you own Howard Hughes. We've

28:19

got three different ways.

28:20

>> Yeah, I'll put some Howard Hughes. I

28:21

think

28:22

following you on Twitter and going the

28:24

going direct movement

28:26

does allow you to communicate directly

28:29

your vision and and that actually makes

28:31

it much easier to to place the bet. And

28:33

so, I I do think it has a profound

28:34

impact cuz

28:35

prior to your

28:37

extremely long tweets that have been

28:41

parodied now, there's an incredible meme

28:43

of a Bill Ackman tweet coming in, which

28:45

is

28:46

>> you did that with your extended iPhone

28:47

that's a foot tall.

28:48

>> No, it was that was my Halloween

28:50

costume.

28:50

>> Yes.

28:53

You would have written something

28:54

shorter. You just didn't have the time,

28:55

yeah?

28:57

>> Yeah, I guess. I don't let other people

28:59

read, you know,

29:00

>> Do you do you do you like having a

29:02

lawyer or anybody read it?

29:04

>> On the the Ronda tweet, which had some

29:06

legal implications, I did have my

29:08

communications guy and a lawyer.

29:10

>> Yeah.

29:10

>> A friend who's a lawyer read it, but I

29:12

only gave him a few minutes cuz I was so

29:13

excited. Once I write something I really

29:15

like,

29:16

>> I just want to

29:16

I got to push it. Yes, I agree. I agree.

29:19

>> And the torpedoes.

29:21

>> I

29:21

>> Tom does this, too. He starts getting a

29:22

little bit frantic when he's writing

29:23

something and then he's like, "Fuck it."

29:25

He just hits send.

29:26

>> [laughter]

29:26

>> I just hit send.

29:27

>> By the way, it's a very powerful thing

29:29

to be able to share your view and push a

29:30

button and reach 2.2 million people. So,

29:32

I'll I'll I'll have to Why don't we just

29:33

take a picture on stage and I'll send it

29:35

out.

29:35

>> Let's do it. Let's do it. Let's do it.

29:36

Let's do it.

29:37

>> Liquidate it.

29:38

>> Gone all in?

29:39

>> All right.

29:40

>> All right.

29:40

>> Relax. Thank you.

Interactive Summary

Pershing Square founder and CEO Bill Ackman joins the All-In podcast to discuss his evolution as an investor, from activist campaigns to a long-term, 'permanent capital' model inspired by Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. He provides insights into his views on AI, the importance of business quality, and how public communication strategies through platforms like Twitter have changed his engagement with markets. Ackman also details his current investment approach, highlighting his focus on business durability and his strategic restructuring of the Howard Hughes Corporation.

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