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Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts,

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This [music] is the Bloomberg Daybreak

Europe podcast. Good morning. It's

Tuesday, the 7th of April. I'm Steven

Carol in London. Coming up today,

[music] US President Donald Trump gives

Iran less than 24 hours to open the

Strait of Hormuz or face the

obliteration of its infrastructure. As

energy prices spiral, Germany joins

Italy, Spain, and others in calling for

an EUwide tax on windfall profits. Plus,

to infinity, beyond, and back again, the

Aremis astronauts head back to Earth

after their record-breaking trip around

the moon. Let's start with a roundup of

our top stories. There are now just

hours to go until US President Trump's

deadline for Iran to open the Straight

of Hormuz or face further attacks on

civilian infrastructure. Trump has

issued an ultimatum for Thran to agree

to his demands by 8:00 p.m. Washington

time tonight, 1:00 a.m. tomorrow in

London, or risk severe escalation.

Speaking from the White House, the

president further ramped up his

rhetoric, saying it would take just

hours to fully deliver on his threat.

Every bridge in Iran will be decimated

by 12:00 tomorrow night, where every

power plant in Iran will be out of

business, burning, exploding, and never

to be used again. I mean complete

demolition by 12:00 and it'll happen

over a period of 4 hours if we wanted

to.

>> While the US president has frequently

shifted deadlines and threatened actions

in the past, he says it is highly

unlikely this deadline will be extended

again. Attacking civilian infrastructure

is barred by the Geneva Conventions. But

Trump said he was not at all concerned

about committing war crimes. US

president's self-imposed deadline marks

the latest pivotal moment in the war now

in its second month. Earlier yesterday,

Iran refused to agree to ceasefire terms

relayed via Pakistan, which has been

mediating efforts to end the conflict.

Esme Bayi is spokesman for the Iranian

foreign ministry. His words were spoken

by a translator.

>> Negotiations are entirely incompatible

with ultimatums, crimes, and threats of

war crimes.

>> Ismail speaking there as leaders in

Tehran are said to have called for a

permanent end to the war. They say they

will only allow shipping to resume

through the straight of Hormuz once they

receive compensation for the damage

caused by the conflict. More than 5,000

people have been killed in the war.

Almost 3/4 of them in Iran, according to

government organizations and US-based

human rights activist news agency. More

than 1,400 people have been killed in

Lebanon, while dozens of others have

died across Gulf Arab states and in

Israel. Five European Union countries

are pushing for an EUwide effort to tax

windfall energy profits. The joint call

comes as firms reap gains as a result of

the USIsraeli war on Iran. Bloomberg's

Tiwa Adabio has the story. The finance

ministers of Germany, Italy, Spain, and

Portugal have written to the EU's

climate commissioner over the weekend

calling for energy firm windfall taxes

amidst the Middle East conflict. In a

letter seen by Bloomberg, they said the

levies would send a clear message that

those who profit from the consequences

of war should ease its burden. Without

specifying details, ministers also

referenced a similar measure introduced

in 2022 after gas prices soared

following Russia's full-scale invasion

of Ukraine. The EU's energy commissioner

said last week that the block would

consider reintroducing the measures used

in 2022 while noting that the current

situation has created a broader range of

problems. In London, TA Adabay Bloomberg

radio

>> Britain is hosting an international

meeting without the US to discuss

long-term measures to keep the straight

of Hormuz open. Military planners from

40 countries are looking to build a

naval coalition that would protect the

strait after the war in the Middle East

ends. Last Friday, France's President

Emanuel Macron was asked by reporters

why Europe hadn't joined America's

efforts to reopen the strait by military

means.

This has never been an option that we've

chosen and we think it's unrealistic.

Unrealistic because it would take an

infinite amount of time and would expose

everyone going through this straight. We

must be able to reopen this straight

because it's strategic for energy,

fertilizers, and international trade.

But it can only be done in consultation

with Iran. So first we need a ceasefire

followed by restarting negotiations.

>> Emanuel Macron speaking via a

translator. The international talks come

as countries around the world are

starting to feel the economic

consequences of the conflict with fuel

prices mounting. Open AI, Anthropic and

Alphabets Google are working together to

combat their AI models being copied by

Chinese competitors. Bloomberg

understands the rival firms are sharing

information through industry nonprofit,

the Frontier Model Forum, to detect

so-called adversarial distillation

attempts that violate their terms of

service. The American AI companies are

concerned that unauthorized imitations,

especially from China, could siphon away

customers while posing a national

security risk. And NASA's Arteimus 2

crew have now traveled further than any

other humans, into space. The four

astronauts completed their six-hour

journey behind the far side of the moon

are now heading home. Astronaut

Christina Ko gave this message back to

Earth.

>> Houston, we have you the same. And it is

so great to hear from Earth again. To

Asia, Africa, and Oceanana, we are

looking back at you. We hear you can

look up and see the moon right now. We

see you, too.

>> KO is the first woman ever to travel to

the moon. The record-breaking trip is

designed as a test as NASA prepares a

return to the moon's surface in the

coming years. And those are your top

stories this morning. Looking at the

markets, we are seeing oil prices rising

again today, up 1.3% for Brent crude,

over $111 a barrel. WTI, the price for

May, this is up by 2.5% to $115 a

barrel. European stock futures a little

higher today, up a tenth of 1%. For Euro

stocks 50, a slightly quieter day in

Asia with the Hong Kong markets uh

closed the MSI Pacific index up by half

of 1%.

Well, in a moment, we'll bring you the

latest on Iran with President Trump's

deadline looming, plus more on the

Aremis space mission. But another story

that we've been reading this morning on

some more detail emerging of the rescue

of those US Air Force personnel who were

uh whose plane went down over Iran. Tony

Kapasio has been writing about the

technology that they were able to use to

signal their locations. It's a device

made by Boeing called a combat survivor

evader locator or cel and the air force

and navy have bought thousands of these

since it became operational in 2009.

President Trump described it as a beeper

like device. uh this stranded personnel

with this device can use it to send a

data message via satellite to a central

rescue center and that then forwards the

message to forces who can communicate

with the survivor uh by voice to help

them with their recovery. So it was the

Pentagon's joint personnel recovery

center that coordinated the effort this

time around. But this handset was

crucial to locating the twoman crew

after their F-15E war plane was hit. The

two men with the call signs Dude 44

Alpha and Dude 44 Bravo rescued in

operations on Friday and on Saturday

over this weekend. Well, let's bring you

up to date now with the latest

developments as we're counting down to

President Trump's deadline for a deal

with Iran set for 1:00 a.m. tomorrow,

London time, 8:00 p.m. this evening in

Washington. The US president says talks

with Thran are going well. Let's get the

latest from our Middle East breaking

news editor, Patrick Sykes. Patrick,

good morning. What do we know then about

the state of these talks both from the

US and also what we've heard from Iran?

>> Yeah, indeed it's an important

distinction because we we basically know

that messages are being passed back and

forth between these intermediaries like

Pakistan. But there are two very

different narratives about how they're

going. Trump, as you mentioned, is

constantly putting a very positive spin

on them, saying they're going well,

there's been progress, etc. From the

Iranian side, we hear a much more

hardline view that uh you know these

these aren't enough and that nothing

short of a full sessation of hostilities

uh sanctions relief uh would be enough

to uh to end the war. And indeed, the

latest we've heard on Iran's position is

that it includes 10 clauses uh or

demands that they're asking for. And

that itself is important because I think

just a week or so ago we were talking

about five. So Iran seems to think that

it it it can not only dictate terms but

it can dictate more of the terms and I

think that's telling that you know the

rhetoric within Iran is is hardening. Uh

just last week the former foreign

minister Jawad Zarif who negotiated the

nuclear deal a few years ago. He was

calling for Iran to convert this current

leverage into a deal that would that

would uh bring sanctions relief for

example and immediately got a very harsh

backlash from more hardline elements of

the regime. elements which of course

since the start of the war with the

killing of so many key officials have

been in the ascendant and have taken

over uh ever more senior parts of the

system.

>> With that very important context the

question of the straight of hormuz

Donald Trump wants it to be a free

passage through the straight to be a

part of any deal. Is it likely that Iran

would agree to that? I think not unless

it gets something big in return, right?

That and and among all those demands,

sometimes five, sometimes 10, the common

denominators that we do hear from Iran

are one and end to all conflicts in the

region, by which we assume it means, you

know, Israeli attacks against its uh

regional allies in places like Gaza, uh

Lebanon for example, and two, sanctions

relief. Obviously, that's been the

subject of of consecutive uh rounds of

negot negotiations over the years, but

Iran has realized in the course of this

conflict that [clears throat] control or

its ability to exert control over the

straight of Hormuz with relatively uh

limited means, right, can be just the

threat of an attack or a single

successful attack on a ship uh can can

change the risk perception around it.

With that realization, I think Iran will

be very loathed to give that up unless

it's getting something uh very concrete,

very big that it can claim as a victory

in return.

>> What about the alternative if this

deadline isn't met? Trump threatening to

target bridges and power plants if there

isn't a deal. How much of an escalation

would that be? And what capacity would

Iran have to respond to that?

>> Yeah, I mean, the targeting civilian

infrastructure like that would uh

constitute a a war crime. So, you know,

in the bigger picture, outside the

bounds of the war itself, uh, it would

also be, I think, a factor in in any

legacy that Trump was hoping to have

from this war and beyond his presidency

within the war. Uh, it I think power

point power plants in particular uh

would have the the potential to to

really squeeze the civilian population

of Iran. You know, many have been kind

of hunkered down at home or they've

moved to quieter, less urban parts of

the country.

uh and that is giving some giving them

some protection but obviously if the

power's out that will change. I think

that would apply a new degree of

pressure um on the population. In terms

of response, I think we can expect

something akin to when Israel targeted

the Iranian gas field and associated

facilities that saw Iran respond uh very

quickly with attacks on on one of the

most important um LNG liqufied natural

gas facilities in the region over the

Gulf in Qatar. And that escalation

seemed to scare many. We saw energy

prices spike into in in response to that

in particular. and we saw both sides

kind of pull back from the brink at that

point. Um, but I think if we if we get

into targeting of of civilian

infrastructure like bridges and power

plants, Iran would look to escalate in

that way again. Uh, and again, I think

we can expect energy prices to obviously

um to to rise in response.

>> Yeah, indeed. And that'll be something

we'll be watching for closely as that

deadline approaches. Patrick, thank you

very much for bringing us up to date

this morning. Our Middle East breaking

news editor, Patrick Sykes.

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg

Daybreak Europe coming up after this.

Now, the four NASA astronauts on board

the Arteimus spacecraft are on their way

home after breaking a record for

traveling the furthest distance from

Earth. Our reporter Danny Lee has been

following the story. He joins us now for

more. Danny, there was an expected

communications blackout from Artemis 2

as it traveled around the moon. The

astronauts have been back in touch and

they've confirmed they're on their way

back.

>> Yeah, the communications blackout around

40 minutes or so. felt like a very long

time, but the expected hiatus in these

coms, they were expected and

reestablished by the four astronauts of

Arteimus 2. And yeah, as you said, they

started their return to Earth overnight.

Along the way, the crews did manage to

get within around 4,67

mi from the moon. So, it's viewing point

from the spacecraft was something like a

baseball basketball in an outstretched

hand. So, it would have been a pretty

compelling uh view at at that point at

least. So, for now, Artimus 2, you know,

around halfway through its 10-day

mission, has been breaking records along

the way.

>> And [snorts] of course, the mission's

still underway. They still have to to

make it back home. But how significant

are the milestones that the Arteimus 2

crew have achieved along the way?

>> Yeah, I mean, for for something like

this, as you said, you know, this is the

the maximum distance from Earth that uh

these crews have have gotten over 50

years, something like 250,000 miles. uh

and for that kind of journey um it is

critical because at the end of the end

of the day this is a critical test

flight a dress rehearsal for NASA to

prove its systems can launch humans into

deep space and to bring them home and

for NASA it does have a goal of bringing

Americans uh back onto the moon surface

as soon as 2028 and there is a time

pressure because overall the stakes

being high for the companies involved

including Boeing and Loheed Martin for

relatively new NASA administrator,

extraastronaut Jared Isaacman, pushing

through these accelerated timelines.

It's all because that the US wants to

get back onto the moon surface by 2028

and do so before China does when it

sends its own astronauts onto the moon

by the end of a decade. And of course,

those are a pretty ambitious set of

targets that NASA has for itself as

well. Is this going to be a big boost to

those efforts then that they've managed

to to tick off I suppose the goals for

the Arteimus 2 mission

>> whilst Artemis 2 still has halfway to go

but you know by the end of this and

hopefully it's a successful return.

There is Arteimus 3 which will be

another test flight to you know see uh

how the the spacecraft of the Orion does

dock uh and also what other commercial

uh spacecraft uh do up in space in order

to ensure that these vehicles ultimately

can then reach the moon. Uh for now

though there is a you know a debate

whether this 2028 timeline is too tight.

You've got the likes of former astronaut

and US Democratic Senator Mark Kelly who

believes that's not the case. Whilst you

got Republican Senator Ted Cruz who

thinks that this overall is an

imperative, a strategic imperative to

have [laughter] a foothold in space

before China does. So there's a lot of

uh geopolitics and I guess another space

race as it were. But for NASA, this is a

project that is over budget, behind

schedule, and has already spent

something like $93 billion US. So, a lot

has gone into this effort of Arteimus.

And another 30 billion could be spent

over the next decade if Jared Eisman has

his way. But for now, this 2028 timeline

is ever nearer and steps have been taken

to achieve the goal to get back to the

moon. Uh, but this will be a complex

undertaking undertaking in deep space

exploration.

>> This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your

morning brief on the stories making news

from London to Wall Street and beyond.

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