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CIA David Petraeus: Why War Between China and USA Isnt What You Think

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CIA David Petraeus: Why War Between China and USA Isnt What You Think

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145 segments

0:00

There's a lot of emphasis on China's

0:02

military capabilities. I think since

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President Xiinping took over with this

0:07

whole wolf warrior diplomacy, it's

0:08

called in the west. Um, but what is

0:11

their specific capabilities? Because

0:14

there's a lot of skepticism over their

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naval assets. Yes, they have aggregately

0:19

more ships now or battleships than the

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US, but

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>> not more battleships. I don't think

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anybody has any battleships anymore.

0:26

>> Sorry. They have a few aircraft carriers

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that are building into task forces and

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so forth. But again, no, they have a

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very

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substantially greater military capacity

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than they had before and in some

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categories. Uh it is greater than what

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the United States has. Um I would point

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out that they have had no recent combat

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experience.

0:51

In fact, when Chinese leaders would come

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to Washington back when there were

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regular exchanges and I was the director

0:57

of the CIA, I was often asked if I would

1:00

allow them to come out and meet with me

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and I always said yes in part because at

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some point in our conversation

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uh I would note now as you all know

1:10

generals I of course had five combat

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commands just as a general officer

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alone. Uh many of you had uh combat

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experience. Oh, maybe. Oh, I guess not.

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Because of course, the last real combat

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experience any of them had would have

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been

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uh in in that particular war after our

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departure uh in the late 1970s. And

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there's really been nothing all that

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significant since then. So, yes, they've

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built impressive forces. uh they've

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realigned their command and control

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structure to rationalize that to more of

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what we have in terms of regional

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combatant commands and joint forces and

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so forth. Um by the way, in certain

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categories of advanced technology,

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they're ahead of us. We have better AI.

2:03

They have more applications. And you can

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go back and forth all the way along on

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all this. They have the stack. We're

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betting on this, they're betting on

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that. But at the end of the day, if you

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have not actually been in combat uh and

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really exercised, even if it's against

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less than peer competitors, I think

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that's a major disadvantage. Uh and our

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forces have had enormous experience. And

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all of our mid-level and senior level uh

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commission and non-commission officers

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have had extensive time in combat.

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>> So, I was thinking of the word

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dreadnots. shows you my uh knowledge

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when it comes to maritime military

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matters, General. But my last question

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for you is you've discussed a little

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bit, you touched upon about the potency,

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but what's the propensity for there to

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be potential engagement between America

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and China over Taiwan? I mean, it's the

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classic endgame question, but do you

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really think that's possible? I think it

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is conceivable given Xi Jinping's desire

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for national rejuvenation and the window

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that is closing. Most people point to

3:06

2027 or possibly 28. What would you what

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would you share with the viewers about

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this element and whether Taiwan is

3:13

>> Well, you've already answered the

3:14

question. Uh I think it's conceivable

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obviously many things are conceivable.

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I don't know how likely it is and

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frankly there let's remember that we

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have we get a vote um big time and that

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is if our capabilities

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uh are seen as substantial and uh

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impressive and if our willingness to

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employ those capabilities

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uh is uh solid not needlessly

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provocative. But again, these are the

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elements of deterrence. The potential

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adversaries assessment of your

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capabilities on the one hand and your

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willingness to use them on the other.

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And we have agency here. Uh we can make

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decisions and we are although I'd argue

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that we need to accelerate uh the

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application of the decisions when it

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comes to transforming our capabilities

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in part uh in view of lessons we should

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be learning from the war in Ukraine. uh

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and then also ensuring that there's no

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question of our willingness to use our

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forces if necessary, but that we do not

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want to be needlessly provocative. Uh if

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we do that right, I think the likelihood

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is very low. Um if we don't, then I

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think it opens the question up a good

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bit more. But I'm hopeful actually and

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you know one of the values of

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unconventional conventional leaders and

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certainly President Trump is that as is

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uh Secretary Headsth is they're willing

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to take actions that others would not

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have taken and one of those needs to be

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to blow up our military procurement

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system and start over. uh to recognize

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that the military-industrial

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congressional complex as Senator McCain

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uh used to describe it uh poratively

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uh not fondly uh is that there are

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vested interests in existing platforms

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and capabilities and weapons systems,

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existing basing arrangements, existing

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maintenance contracts, all of this

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um that all the individuals in these

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different complexes, military,

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industrial A congressional will say,

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"Yes, we need to change procurement, but

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don't start with the platform made in my

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district. Don't start with the aircraft

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carrier task force in my base in my

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district. Don't do this, don't do that."

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And I think there's got to be some

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really aggressive action uh in this

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regard to overhaul the overall system

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and ideally to drive it with the basic

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concepts developed by the Indo-Pacific

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commander and his subordinate commanders

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uh that then are operationalized

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uh in a variety of different ways. Most

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important of which would be those that

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establish requirements

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uh that then guide procurement.

Interactive Summary

The discussion focuses on China's expanding military capabilities and its comparison to the United States. While China has increased its forces and advanced in certain technologies like AI applications, it lacks recent combat experience, which the speaker identifies as a significant disadvantage compared to the US military. Regarding the potential conflict over Taiwan, the speaker emphasizes that deterrence depends on both capability and the clear willingness to use it. Finally, he calls for a major overhaul of the US military procurement system to overcome political and industrial inertia and better prepare for Indo-Pacific challenges.

Suggested questions

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