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IT'S OVER! I Can't Stay Quiet on AI Stocks Crashing Any Longer

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IT'S OVER! I Can't Stay Quiet on AI Stocks Crashing Any Longer

Transcript

347 segments

0:00

An exceptionally brutal day on Wall

0:02

Street.

0:02

>> Decidedly red, especially the NASDAQ.

0:04

>> Meta and Microsoft shares have fallen

0:06

and after [music] hours trading. That's

0:08

where the pain really is. Investors are

0:10

panic selling some of the best stocks on

0:12

the market. And the bigger the decline,

0:14

the bigger the opportunity, especially

0:17

if we know which stocks to [music] buy

0:18

and which ones to avoid. So, in this

0:21

video, I'll cover everything you need to

0:23

know about this AI stock selloff and

0:25

which ones I'm buying as a result. Your

0:27

time is valuable, so let's get right

0:29

into it. AI stocks around the world saw

0:31

heavy losses late last week after Oracle

0:34

and Broadcom reported earnings and

0:36

sparked new fears of an AI bubble.

0:38

Oracle stock had its worst single day

0:40

percentage decline since the dotcom bust

0:43

after they reported lower than expected

0:45

revenues and much higher AI spending.

0:48

That caused their free cash flows to

0:49

collapse to negative $10 billion for the

0:52

quarter, which is twice as low as

0:54

analysts expected. Oracle's AI buildout

0:56

is turning out to be much more expensive

0:58

and much slower to make money than

1:00

investors anticipated. And Wall Street

1:02

is worried that the same thing is

1:04

happening at other AI companies. And

1:06

just one day later, Broadcom stock had

1:08

one of its largest market cap losses in

1:10

history, losing around $220 billion in a

1:14

single day after they reported earnings.

1:16

The difference is that Broadcom beat

1:18

analyst expectations on revenue and

1:20

earnings per share, but the stock

1:22

dropped anyway. That's because

1:24

Broadcom's management warned investors

1:26

that gross margins could go down as

1:28

custom AI chips became a bigger part of

1:30

their overall portfolio and that

1:32

Broadcom wouldn't see much revenue from

1:34

their multi-billion dollar agreement

1:35

with OpenAI in 2026. Both Oracle and

1:38

Broadcom stocks are down over 10%. And

1:41

this is where Wall Street just made a

1:43

huge mistake. Let me show you why.

1:45

First, custom chips are nothing new to

1:47

Broadcom or to their shareholders.

1:49

Broadcom helped design and manufacture

1:50

multiple generations of Google's tensor

1:53

processing units or TPUs. Meta Platforms

1:56

training and inference MTIA chips and

1:58

the custom chips that Bite Dance uses to

2:00

help power Tik Tok's content

2:02

recommendation algorithm. And just 2

2:04

months ago, Broadcom announced that

2:05

they're partnering with OpenAI to

2:07

co-develop and deploy around 10 gawatt

2:10

of custom accelerators for Chat GPT,

2:12

GPT5, and their other frontier models.

2:15

So, of course, investors shouldn't

2:17

expect much from that deal in 2026,

2:19

which starts in just 3 weeks. Especially

2:22

since Advanced AI accelerators take a

2:24

lot of time to design, manufacture,

2:26

test, optimize, and deploy. And by the

2:29

time Broadcom delivers OpenAI's custom

2:31

chips, there will be even more demand

2:33

for them, which means Broadcom is very

2:35

well positioned to win even more

2:37

multi-billion dollar contracts from

2:39

other AI companies. In fact, on their

2:41

most recent earnings call, Broadcom said

2:43

that they had a $73 billion backlog of

2:46

AI orders over the next 18 months,

2:49

including $21 billion from Anthropic.

2:52

And it's not just their backlog.

2:54

Broadcom's current revenue is also

2:56

accelerating, growing by 28%

2:58

year-over-year with AI chip revenues up

3:01

by 74% over that same time frame. Now,

3:04

compare that to Oracle. Broadcom's

3:06

revenue has been growing at a compound

3:08

annual growth rate of 19% over the last

3:11

10 years. That number is just 5% for

3:14

Oracle. And while Oracle looks like

3:16

they're consistently beating Broadcom in

3:18

terms of earnings per share, the

3:19

opposite is true. Broadcom's earnings in

3:21

2024 included a one-time $4.5 billion

3:25

tax charge as part of a supply chain

3:27

realignment that I covered when it

3:28

happened. and Oracle's earnings per

3:30

share were only so high this past

3:32

quarter because of a one-time $2.7

3:34

billion gain from selling their stake in

3:37

Amper Computing. But the biggest

3:39

difference between Broadcom and Oracle

3:40

is their free cash flows. Broadcom has

3:43

been steadily growing their free cash

3:44

flows over the last decade, while

3:46

Oracles have been in decline and now

3:48

they're at -10 billion, which means they

3:52

need to finance their AI buildouts and

3:54

other major capital expenditures with

3:56

debt. My point isn't just that investors

3:58

are making a mistake on Broadcom by

4:00

treating it like Oracle. My point is

4:02

that the market is treating all AI

4:04

stocks like their Oracle right now,

4:06

regardless of their actual quality. And

4:09

that presents a huge opportunity for

4:11

long-term investors. But there's

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for supporting the channel. All right,

5:12

so Oracle and Broadcom's earnings

5:13

renewed fears of an AI bubble and now

5:16

the market is treating all AI stocks the

5:18

same. But like I just showed you, not

5:20

all AI stocks are the same. Some are

5:22

crushing analyst expectations,

5:24

accelerating revenue growth, and growing

5:26

free cash flows, while others are doing

5:28

the opposite. That's because some of the

5:30

best positioned AI companies are

5:32

actually ones with strong revenue

5:33

streams across many different nonAI

5:36

products, services, and software that

5:38

can carry them through these kinds of

5:40

downturns. So, these are the top three

5:42

stocks that I'll be investing in if

5:44

prices continue to fall. Let's start

5:46

with AMD. AMD stock is down by 15% over

5:49

the last month because of intense

5:51

competition in data centers, not just

5:53

from Nvidia, but now Google is also

5:55

starting to sell their custom TPUs to

5:58

other companies. And now AMD is down by

6:00

almost 5% after Oracle and Broadcom's

6:03

earnings. Investors are spooked because

6:05

AMD trades at around 100 price

6:07

toearnings ratio. But if you've been

6:09

watching this channel for a while, you

6:10

know that the PE ratio is a terrible

6:12

valuation metric for companies with high

6:15

earnings growth. AMD is expected to more

6:17

than double their earnings next year,

6:19

primarily from growing their data center

6:21

business by around 80% per year for the

6:23

next 3 to 5 years. A lot of that growth

6:26

will come from AMD's massive deal with

6:28

Open AI, where they'll deploy up to 6

6:30

gawatt of Instinct GPUs, which could be

6:33

worth over a hundred billion in data

6:35

center revenues for AMD. And like I said

6:38

when this partnership was announced, the

6:40

real win for AMD here is validation for

6:42

their Instinct and Rockom ecosystems,

6:44

which means they could see more huge

6:46

deals for data center accelerators from

6:48

other AI companies like Anthropic, just

6:50

like we saw with Broadcom. Another

6:52

benefit AMD has in this specific

6:54

situation is that their revenues aren't

6:56

totally tied to AI. Around 43% of AMD's

7:00

revenues come from their client and

7:02

gaming segment, which focus on PC CPUs,

7:05

GPUs, and semi-custom chips for game

7:07

consoles. This is the segment that was

7:09

actually responsible for the vast

7:11

majority of AMD's revenue growth last

7:13

quarter because it grew by 73%

7:16

year-over-year compared to their data

7:18

center segment, which was up by 22%. And

7:20

don't forget that around half of AMD's

7:22

data center sales are from their epic

7:24

line of CPUs, not their Instinct AI

7:27

accelerators. I usually point that out

7:29

as a negative because I want my

7:31

investments to have as much exposure to

7:33

AI as possible. But in this case where

7:35

investors are panic selling AI stocks,

7:37

it's actually an upside because AMD is

7:39

very well diversified, much more than

7:42

the market is currently giving them

7:43

credit for. In fact, discounted cash

7:45

flow models like Simply Wall Street's

7:47

calculate AMD's fair value to be around

7:50

$380 per share, while the stock is

7:52

trading at around $210, making AMD more

7:55

than 40% undervalued at today's prices.

7:58

Set another way, AMD stock would have to

8:01

almost double to reach its fair value

8:03

today, thanks to the insane revenue and

8:05

earnings growth that they're expecting

8:07

over the next few years. Like I said at

8:09

the start of this video, this is a big

8:11

opportunity for long-term investors. And

8:13

now you can see why. Another stock

8:15

that's trading well under its fair value

8:17

is Meta Platforms. According to DCF

8:20

models, Meta Stock is 23% undervalued,

8:23

which means it has a 30% upside from its

8:26

current price, even though it's one of

8:28

the biggest money printers on the

8:29

planet. Meta is selling off mainly

8:31

because investors are nervous about its

8:33

AI and infrastructure spending that it's

8:35

gotten so big that it could hurt their

8:37

near-term earnings and free cash flows,

8:39

just like they did with the metaverse in

8:41

2022. In their most recent earnings

8:43

call, Metaguided their 2025 capex budget

8:46

up to $70 billion. That's versus around

8:49

$40 billion in 2024, and they warned

8:51

that their AI spending in 2026 will be

8:54

even higher. Wall Street is worried that

8:56

Meta Platforms won't be able to make

8:58

money on their AI investments for years

8:59

to come, just like Oracle. But Meta is

9:02

nothing like Oracle. Meta is already

9:05

monetizing AI today, mainly through

9:07

better ad targeting, automated tools,

9:09

and AIdriven shopping. Meta uses machine

9:12

learning to optimize who sees what ads

9:14

where and when, which leads to higher

9:16

conversion rates and lets Meta charge

9:18

more for each impression. And as of

9:20

Meta's latest earnings, the annual

9:22

revenue from their AI advertising

9:24

infrastructure is already over $60

9:26

billion, which means a large share of

9:28

their current ad revenue is effectively

9:30

AIdriven. On top of that, Meta is

9:33

rolling out chat bots across Facebook,

9:35

Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, and

9:37

their hardware devices that will further

9:39

personalize ads and content for more

9:41

than a billion monthly active users. For

9:44

example, a user can ask Meta's AI to

9:46

compare different cameras for travel,

9:48

and that will directly feed back into

9:50

the kinds of ads that that user will be

9:52

shown, not just for cameras, but for

9:54

other things that can be useful on the

9:55

go. My point is, Meta has a clear and

9:58

obvious path to monetizing their AI

10:00

infrastructure. And of course, they need

10:02

a lot of infrastructure because roughly

10:04

3.5 billion people use at least one Meta

10:07

app every single day. And around 4

10:10

billion people use at least one of their

10:12

apps each month. That's roughly half the

10:14

people on the planet. And just like AMD,

10:16

Meta's revenues are extremely

10:18

diversified outside of AI, mainly in

10:21

advertising, commerce, and payments, as

10:23

well as augmented and virtual reality

10:25

devices. The third stock that I think

10:27

Wall Street is making a big mistake on

10:29

is Microsoft, which is probably the most

10:32

well- diversified company on the planet

10:34

between products, software, and services

10:36

like LinkedIn and GitHub, Visual Studio

10:39

and SQL, Microsoft 365 and Teams, and

10:42

Azure and Xbox. The list goes on and on.

10:45

Microsoft is also on track to invest

10:47

around $80 billion in 2025 to build out

10:50

AI data centers, which was a big

10:52

increase from what they spent in 2024,

10:54

and they're going to increase it again

10:55

in 2026. And just like Oracle, investors

10:58

are worried that Microsoft won't be able

11:00

to monetize their AI infrastructure

11:02

quick enough for shareholders to see

11:04

real returns on all of these

11:05

investments. According to Wall Street

11:07

analysts, the main challenge is that

11:09

models, data centers, and power costs

11:11

are already exploding. While user

11:13

adoption and pricing are still ramping

11:15

up, that causes a lot of concern about

11:17

long-term margins and free cash flows

11:19

from all these AI applications. But just

11:21

like with Meta Platforms, Microsoft's

11:23

earnings showed that AI was already a

11:25

major contributor to Azure's strong

11:27

sales growth, to rising co-pilot

11:29

adoption in Microsoft 365 and to solid

11:32

overall growth in profits even after

11:34

their increased capital expenditures,

11:36

which means Microsoft must already be

11:38

monetizing AI. DCF models calculate the

11:41

fair value of Microsoft stock to be

11:43

around $600 per share, which implies a

11:46

25% upside from today's price of around

11:49

$480. That's a 25% upside on one of the

11:52

biggest and most powerful companies

11:54

sitting at the center of the entire AI

11:57

revolution. So hopefully this video

11:59

helped you understand why AI stocks

12:01

dropped over the last week. the big

12:02

mistake that Wall Street is making by

12:04

treating every AI company like it's

12:06

Oracle. And of course, three stocks with

12:08

a wide variety of revenue streams in and

12:10

outside of AI, making them great stocks

12:13

to get rich without getting lucky. And

12:15

if you want to see what else I'm buying

12:17

to get rich without getting lucky, check

12:19

out this video next. Either way, thanks

12:21

for watching and until next time, this

12:23

is Tickerol U. My name is Alex,

12:26

reminding you that the best investment

12:28

you can make is in you.

Interactive Summary

The video analyzes the recent sell-off in AI stocks, largely triggered by disappointing earnings reports from Oracle and Broadcom. The creator argues that Wall Street is making a mistake by treating all AI companies as if they share Oracle's poor financial metrics, such as declining cash flow and slow monetization. Instead, the narrator highlights that companies like AMD, Meta, and Microsoft are well-positioned with strong, diversified revenue streams, making the current market downturn a significant opportunity for long-term investors.

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