I do have another tagline for Facebook.

[laughter]

>> Okay.

>> Meta. Ignore the smell coming from the

basement.

[music]

>> Hi everyone. This is Pivot from New York

Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast

Network. I'm Carara Swisser

>> and I've been doxed.

>> You've been doxed? What? Tell me. Uh, so

I don't know if you've heard, but Mayor

Mom Donnie has decided to release a list

of the 950,000 residences with addresses

and names that might be eligible for his

pietary tax.

>> Yeah. Yeah. And this is from the Wall

Street Journal. This is a story. Explain

it. Do you want me to explain it? Let me

read from the Wall Street Journal. Mom

Dominy's administration fired a warning

shot last week and it published an

online list of property owners that

might be subject to a search charge of

luxury second homes. The list includes

owners names, addresses, and market

value of properties. The release of list

threatens to stir up existing tensions,

mean the mayor and the city's elite. The

city has also been sending out

notifications to homeowners they might

be subject to the new tax. If you have a

second home in New York worth more than

$5 million, check your mailbox when

you're back in the five burrows because

you've got mail. The mayor said in a

post on social media. I assume I am not

I have I have an apartment here, but I

don't I'm well below that number. Um uh

uh what do you I I don't love this. I

can't I can't say I love this. It feels

like a little bit like doxing. Just tax

them and get get on with it is my

feeling. That's how I feel.

>> Here's the definition of doxing.

>> Okay. Doxing is publishing private

identifying information to expose

someone to publicly pressure or harm

without their consent. Tied to status,

the publishers's disapproval.

Swap elite for any other disavowed

group. And nobody's calling this a tax

role. This is I'm a fan of this tax.

>> I was supportive of it.

>> Yep.

>> Rich absenteeism

should should subsidize a nurse in the

Bronx. is paying 40% of her income on

rent. I I I came out in favor of this

tax. This is the definition. He's taken

a legitimate source of tax revenue and

he's turning it into a wanted poster.

And the question I would have is other

than trying to identify and imply these

people have done something wrong and

then 18 months after a healthcare CEO

was executed in the street and then

published the list. What What is the

upside here? Why is he doing this? I I

there's two things. I think he's been

largely successful, but there's two

things that I think are real misses, and

they're both well, they're not related.

They are related in some way. One is

this luxury tax. They should not have

focused on Ken Griffin. I understand

what if they they got it passed. Hokll

agreed to do it. Just tax people. That's

it. That should be it. It got passed.

The leader going to be mad about it.

Some are, some aren't like you. And then

just tax them. This was a big mistake to

try to put targets on these people. I I

find it really disturbing. The second

thing was even though I agree with with

with problems with Benjamin Netanyahu to

say you're going to arrest and want to

arrest him seems ridiculous cuz it's not

your job, right? It's not I I get why

you might say I don't like him and I

wish I could arrest him, but it was sort

of weird. I I thought it was a weird

another weird flex about which is not

his job. And so in this case, I think

he's going to piss off the elite anyway

or many of them, not all of them, over

this tax. I don't know why he would.

These records are public, I think. I

believe, but why call attention to them,

correct? Is that I can look up any any

home if you know the address

essentially, but maybe not who's here as

a second home. I don't know. And that I

don't know. Well, I'll just touch on the

the him saying he would he would arrest

Benjamin Netanyahu. His legit he

basically the justification was that

he's been convicted in the International

Criminal Court,

>> right?

>> Uh there are dozens if not hundreds of

people have convicted in the

International Criminal Court, but he's

decided to announce he's arresting the

Jew.

>> Well, I I'm not sure. Okay.

>> Okay. Who else has he announced he's

arresting?

>> He hasn't. He shouldn't have done this.

I said he shouldn't have done it. I just

I think it's

>> So, you and I are in violent agreement

on this. and when he's decided he's not

only playing into the worst fears about

him,

>> but

he's making it harder for all

progressives. I believe in a progressive

tax structure. I believe we should raise

tax rates. And the Republicans, in order

to create deficits and continue to

transfer money from the poor to the

rich, they argue that progressive tax

structures are persecution. And this

plays exactly into that entire

narrative.

And let me of course I never miss an

excuse to talk about myself. I left San

Francisco in 2000 because I thought I

was going to be rich. Red Envelope was

going public and I thought what do I

want to do with my life? And I thought I

want to teach and I want to live in New

York. New York is the greatest collision

of proximity, humanity, culture,

creativity, weirdness. And I'm like I

want that.

>> Yes. You've said that. Yeah. You love

the city.

>> And I moved there in 2000. Uh, I ended

up I was not rich and I worked my ass

off in New York and I decided, you know

what, I can't afford to live here. And I

moved to Florida. But I decided I'm

going to start a business intelligence

firm called L2.

And I started it in New York because a

it's an amazing place to start a

business and b I always wanted to have a

foot in New York. I started L2 in 2010.

I sold it in 2017. And I've spent a

bunch of time this morning trying to

figure out what are the taxes, not the

federal taxes, but the state franchise

tax, real estate taxes, payroll taxes

paid by L2 from 2010 to present to New

York City and state and it's about $51

million

the average. In other words, we L L2 is

paying for what the one of the largest

firehouses

in downtown the budget for one of the

largest firehouses in downtown Manhattan

is $26 million a year. And the but quite

frankly, what he's saying is okay and

and when I sold my company in 2017, I

was living in faculty housing. My dean

called me and said, "Congratulations, I

just saw you sold it for this. You need

to move out of faculty housing." Which

was fair,

>> right? And you bought your apartment.

Yes. and I bought an apartment. And now

when he starts putting quite frankly he

when he starts putting a target implying

he's implying we've done something

wrong. He's implying that we're guilty

of something.

>> Yeah. He should just he should just take

the tax. I would agree with

>> there's no they have the tax roles. They

don't need this for tax reasons. As a

matter of fact, if Amazon released a

list of a million names

>> and said these people actually owe taxes

or they've done something wrong or

they're implied something bad about them

and it had a 95% error rate,

>> the same attorney general under Mandani

would be issuing subpoenas right now.

>> Right. Yeah. I don't

>> This is this plays into

>> this is just plain and like we've he's

implying we've done something wrong

because we're successful,

>> right? No, I I agree.

>> New York is the New York is the the last

place you want to demonize success.

>> The reason people move to New York is

they think, "I want to be successful on

Broadway. I want to be successful in

business. I want to be successful in the

arts. And no one's going to get in my

[ __ ] way if I'm really talented and

work hard. We're going to celebrate it.

We're not going to we're not going to

put a big R on your door and say you've

done something wrong because you're

successful."

>> Yeah. I don't know quite why he did it

since he got the T. The tax was going

through. I don't I there he's seeing

some polling where it's not. I don't

He's already won and I'm not sure why

he's doubling down with a losing move. I

It's bizarre. I find that bizarre and I

don't I you know in a time when people's

public information even if it's public

to call attention to it the when you're

so prominent is a real problem. I mean

we all complain about Facebook and

others using our information and

justifiably to do this is very similar.

It feels very creepy. It feels very

surveillance. It feels very um even if

you don't like Ken Griffin or even if

you don't like all these rich people

lording it over New York, they'll pay

they should pay their taxes and that's

that. It should be that's that. And I it

it is seems really um unusually

pugnacious toward I don't I don't I was

sort of shocked by the story and I I'm

going to wait for more reporting on this

but it seems ridiculous to to to call

attention to it um when it's people you

want to also stay here and you want to

get their taxes. Anyway, I I would agree

with you Scott. I just I I don't like

it. I don't like it. And and people can

call us friends of rich people but it

seems unfair uh on on every aspect. not

the tax.

>> 95% of the people on the list Bill's not

going to be subject to the tax. Like

what

>> other than implying these people have

done something wrong and publishing

their address without their permission,

without their consent, what what

possible upside is is there from

publishing this list.

>> I would like to know what what the what

the idea is. It's not a good one. I

mean, it's not good. It's not good. Uh I

know it's been a tough morning. By the

way, I've gotten yelled at by Facebook

and and R. Emanuel called and yelled at

me too because I didn't like his column.

So that was my morning. Um yeah, they

didn't like your Jeffrey Dmer joke.

Didn't like it. But let's get to let's

get to the

>> Meta called you about something I said,

>> you know, on the Well, because it's on

social media. All the jokes we made on

the last show about you did remarketing.

I was like, you know what, we didn't

like the Michelle Obama is a man joke

and you didn't object to it enough, you

know, or whatever. I just feel like

anyway, let me say I feel like I I feel

like there's not going to that they were

not happy with our jokes about Mark, but

he's still on his AI optimism tour. Um,

in an opinion piece in the Wall Street

Journal, Zuckerberg asked whether AI

will be centralized and restricted to a

few institutions or a tool that empowers

everyone. His own proposal, he says, is

a philosophy based on individual

empowerment as a source of prosperity

and a balance of power as a foundation

of safety. In the piece, which was

rather long uh and needed in desperate

need of editing, Zuckerberg expresses

concern that others creating AI talk

about it in a way that is filled with

doom. He continues this idea in the New

York Times interview, which he also he's

on a he's on a chatting tour, saying

developing AI in a tightly controlled

manner is akin to abandoning values and

stifling innovation. He was taking aim

at open AI and and anthropic who are way

ahead of him actually. Um I suspect he

wouldn't be making this speech if Meta

was ahead. um uh it was interesting that

they're they're very they they're really

doubling down on this we love humanity

thing um and AI optimism and rightly so

because they went too far in the other

direction and saying how bad it would be

for everybody except themselves and so

they're uh they're sort of doubling

down. What do you make of this? Uh and

no Jeffrey Dmer jokes today if you don't

mind.

>> No, no, it's not like he's buying bottle

service after being dumped and trying to

pretend everything's okay. Look, CEOs

consistently consistently try to focus

on the reputation, right? And a CEO

trying to convince us that AI will

empower everyone. It's not marketing,

it's preemptive regulation.

And I thought it was just so hilarious

that he's claimed to be worried about

the concentration of power of AI. What

he's worried about is it's not

concentrating around meta.

>> I would agree with that. Yeah. Well,

well, when one company controls I think

it's 63% of all or 68% of all social

media, he's worried about the

concentration of power.

>> Yeah.

>> So, that that comes across as cynical.

The companies with the largest

distribution will likely be the most

successful and Meta has three billion

users.

>> That's an unfair advantage if you want

to talk about concentration of power.

History highlights that we consistently

overestimate the short-term impact of

technology and underestimate the

long-term impact.

>> Yes. So AI will likely disappoint this

year, but will likely permanently

reshape certain parts of our society and

economy over the next decade.

Essentially, it feels like every AI ad

right now is an attempt at a reputation

management campaign.

>> It's not even talking about the

products. It's saying

>> I mean

they're it's really interesting. They're

running their ad ads saying it'll

connect everyone

and then someone who founded one of

these companies will say it's a human

extinction event on on on PBS. You know,

it's just sort of well which is it guys?

Is it going to connect us or is it going

to is it going to destroy us?

>> Well, I think they're coordinating their

talks now. They're like maybe we should

slow down on the doom saying, right? Or

maybe we should say open is good because

Daario Amodi also noted that there

should be an open that there should be

open systems. I think they what what it

is is they've got microphones in front

of their faces and they've said too much

and now they're trying to pull it back.

And so Mark is sort of walking into this

breach by saying I believe it's for

everybody except he's not handing he did

this in the beginning of the I remember

very vividly a late night phone

conversation when he did this long essay

another long essay in desperate need of

editing um where he talked about how it

was about how social media was about

community and he wanted to lean into

people and that we're all in this

together. And I recall asking him if

we're all in it together why do you

control everything? like why are you the

monarch of Facebook? And he never had a

good answer for that. Like you know he

was like well I said if we're all in it

for community why don't we all share

your money? Why don't we all share if

we're if our privacy is being used why

aren't we being paid?

>> We're in this together Mark.

>> We're in this together. Like together I

would like some of the money you're

using my privacy to sell. Like I and it

was I had the same argument with Steve

Casease many years many many years

before that. They all are like we're

here for you but except when it comes to

divvying up the goodies and or control.

And so I was I I was it's the same if

you go back to that essay he wrote about

social media none of which came true. It

became a very negative force in society

although there are some definite

positive aspects. No question.

I I I literally can't it's weird that

he's trying this out again because I

think he actually believes he's helping

people. What you were right, I have to

say, away from all your jokes, which

they did not like, um, and I feel like

ads are not forthcoming in the future.

Um, is is that they should just stick to

we're making capitalism and we're going

to there's going to be a lot of jobs

from the things we make. I think that's

or here's vocational training or here's

like I think they should lean into the

stuff that they actually deserve credit

for. I suppose

>> this is not only wasteful advertising

which is everyone's worried about this

this hurts. This brings up this will

just inspire a lot of conversations like

this one showing just how cynical this

is and that and reminding people that

this is a firm that uh when social went

on mobile we saw the greatest increase

in young adult depression that we've

registered since we began tracking it. I

mean it just stirs up a lot of things

that are not going to be good for them.

Um so I don't I think this was a real uh

own goal but in just going to the story

of you know if you will open open AI

versus closed AI

open systems usually win Linux won the

cloud Android Android one mobile the

internet beat AOL you were talking about

Steve Chase

>> closed models try to ring fence and

maximize profits open models optimize um

for adoption Right. And you're you're

probably and this is this is how this

war is playing out with China. You don't

you don't win or beat China by

restricting knowledge. You beat China by

commercializing it faster. Now, Nvidia's

incentives are obvious. They sell the

picks and shovels. The more AI models

that exist, the more GPUs they sell.

But, you know, trying to stop

open-source AI is like trying to ban

calculus. It's just it's it's not going

to work. And but but for Zuckerberg to

talk about it, it's because he failed

trying to ring fence his own AI.

>> Yeah, I would agree. All right, let me

let me put do an exercise. Instead of

calling him Jeffrey Dmer, what what if

he was standing in front of you? You

obviously aren't going to insult him.

Possibly, maybe you would. What would

you say to him? How how should he be

messaging this? What how should he be

marketing this?

>> How should he be messaging around AI or

meta?

>> Yeah, meta AI, whatever.

>> Yeah. Yeah, but at some at some point

your actions reveal more than than your

words or an ad campaign from someone hot

you want to hang out with who wears

black. I fell into that when red

envelope went public. I hired all these

ad agencies so I could hang around cool

people and see ads on bus shelters and

have lunch with David Kerry at the

Condas Cafeteria in New York.

His actions are his branding now. I

mean, anything Meta does is worth

hundreds of millions of dollars in print

advertising because it gets reported on

and crawled on by a ton of people,

including us. The best branding that

Mark Zuckerberg could do right now would

be for him to age gate his platform.

>> Yeah. I think

>> just to say, look, I think Mark

Zuckerberg never intended to hurt

children. I don't think that's who he

is. Their evil and their menaciousness

is not a function of their malice. It's

a function of their indifference and

their their obfuscation and their

they're guilty not of errors of

commission but omission

and then and they constantly push back

and say ridiculous [ __ ] like well we're

worried about 14-year-olds first

amendment rights as opposed to saying

look we make a lot of money from

teenagers and until it's a law we're

going to continue to serve them ads even

if it's extreme dieting.

>> I would agree. I did I did I did push

back. I said, "It's really interesting

that you would cut all ability to stop

really heinous speech about trans and

gay people. That's what you did

recently." And then you're worried about

Scott making a Jeffrey Jmer joke. Or I

didn't I noticed there wasn't a real

push back on Michelle Obama as a man. I

noticed there wasn't a real push back by

anyone in the GOP on um on on the

heinous things that Trump said about

this time any day of the week but

Caitlyn Collins. I was like, "No one

said anything." So he sort of in the

vein of what you were talking about with

speaking of Ari Emanuel, he he did an

essay saying this deal should go

through. I wrote him back saying you

might point out that it because it it

makes us a banana republic essentially.

>> He's got money all over this deal.

>> Exactly. I agree with that. But aside

from that, it was um I think he does

actually believe that there's there

needs to be four strong studios to have

a healthy Hollywood system. He was

saying it's a ban. I I agree with I

completely agree with him. But he he was

I was like the reason why the state's

attorney generals all of whom are trying

to push back is because the very first

approval which was the justice

department was so tainted with political

things. So if you're going to do

politics they're going to do politics.

And he was like but that's not the point

that there should be four. I said, "Yes,

but you they've wrecked it from day one

by being so egregiously political in so

many ways that this was the natural this

Democrats are there's there's there's a

song by the by the chicks um which is

not ready to make nice and the Democrats

are not ready to make nice now and they

better get used to this. That's my and

and Trump started it all by like

insulting people and having the GOP stay

silent like doing these egregiously

cruel things." And the same thing with

Zuckerberg. He's created us he's created

a platform where ugliness is far too is

far too powerful and then he's like why

are things so ugly? And you're like I

don't know maybe you could have done so

like you said the actions. I think I

agree with you. Um can I can I go on

about the open source? Nvidia, SpaceX,

Microsoft and other tech companies have

launched an AI safety initiative to

develop open- source tools for AI safety

and cyber security. The initiative

follows a recent cyber attack involving

an open AI agent that breached hugging

face during internal testing, raising

new concerns about AI security, notably

absent from the alliance. Are open AAI,

Google, and Anthropic, highlighting the

growing divide between supporters of

open models and companies building

closed systems. This follows Anthropic

and OpenAI lobbying Washington for some

restrictions on the latest open source

models coming out of China. However,

Anthropic Dario Modi, as I noted,

emphasized in a letter this week that

the company has never advocated for a

ban on openweight models. Like you said,

we uh it's going to be it's open open

will win, correct? No matter what they

do.

>> The honest answer is or what I think is

going to happen and I said this on our

last one. I think the market for AI is

bifurcating into a series of frontier

models that aren't open- source that are

better

and and people will pay a premium for

them and I think they'll still be the

largest businesses by a dollar volume

level and then the Toyotas and Hondas

and Hondas of the world will be the open

source coming out of the

>> Corolla is a great way to think about

it. Toyota Corolla

>> and there'll be a market for both but I

think the more relevant one are the open

weight models. They tend to in

technology they tend to be the ones that

kind of win long term. Now iOS is I

guess technically a closed system and

Android's open. Android has more users.

iOS creates more shareholder value,

>> right? Yeah, that's a fair point.

>> But I but there's a you know there

there's huge I mean you could argue that

Android creates more shareholder value

because it informs what is the greatest

toll booth in history. You could argue

it both ways. I think there's a market

for both. I mean it it's so funny.

business and technology usually comes

down to iOS versus Android.

>> Yeah, it does. It

>> that's what's happening here. It's the

Frontier models versus the open way

Chinese models.

>> It's weird they're having this weird

beef. It sort of happens all the time,

doesn't it? Well, there was so much push

back when Linux and the others came

around and it it's always the same. It's

always the same.

>> Mark Zuckerberg right now is using

basically this, you know, corporate

Vaseline as axe body spray. He thinks if

he sprays enough on himself, he'll no

longer stink. Mark, you [ __ ] weak.

You have [laughter] terrible bo. I just

got you another call. I just got you

another call, Karen.

>> I tried. I tried. I tried.

>> I smell the axe, but there's something

else I smell here. Oh, it's teen

depression and self cutting.

>> All right. And we're out. Okay. I tried.

>> It's polarization of our elections.

>> I I think

>> it's a discourse. I think they have a

lot to answer for. Don't say he has BO.

Anyway, while we're on the BO I there

was a lot of BO on the subway this

morning. By the way, while we're on the

topic of AI, we've been hearing feedback

from some of you who have been impacted

by data centers in your communities. So,

we wanted to bring an expert voice.

Let's listen to a clip from Evan Halper,

a business reporter at the Washington

Post, who's been covering data center

buildouts and their impacts about how

tangible these issues are.

>> This is not propaganda. This is not

media misinformation. The backlash is

driven by very real concerns in these

communities, many of which I've been to.

They they're they get all kinds of

promises made to them by tech companies

that things are going to be run on clean

energy. They're going to bring all kinds

of jobs into the community. They're not

going to have impact on the water, etc.,

etc. But what we're seeing on the ground

is the impacts are very real. Suddenly,

a community that wasn't expecting it,

that was rural, has been has seen

[clears throat] the large amount of land

reszoned, big power plants getting

built. The power plant is big enough to

serve a medium-sized American city, all

to serve just one data center. It's run

on gas. Gas creates public health

problems. It creates climate problems.

There's backup diesel generators on top

of the data center. Those backup diesel

generators are major polluters that are

supposed to run very infrequently. But

now because there's not enough power on

the grid because the data centers need

so much these emergencies get declared

and the backup diesel generators get to

function even more often on the lowest

air quality days creating an even bigger

air quality problem. So these problems

are real. This is not just an imagined

thing. This is not political

opportunism. These communities are

suffering real impacts from these data

centers.

>> Yeah. I think you know as you said some

of them should be fine if they're done

correctly but they aren't being done.

They're getting they're running over

these areas and people real people are

very

concerned. They really are. And this is

this is a message that I have been

trying to get through to these tech

companies. They really do think it's

fake. They think it's the media being

negative. I've heard this over and over

again. By the way, Willie Nelson just

spoke out about data centers saying an

AI data center is the last thing his

Texas hometown needs. So again, one of

the things is it's the same theme that

we're talking about. They have painted

themselves into villains and then they

wonder why we think they're villains and

we don't trust them. And you know, you

can talk all you want about trust the

media. I agree. People have never

trusted the media, but they really don't

trust tech companies at this point. And

it's a real problem. And doing these ads

about humanity is not, you're right,

actions speak louder than words and

these data centers. We are going to

suffer as a country if we don't stay

ahead in this area. But the way they're

introducing data centers is so

overwhelmingly

feels corrupt, feels like feels bad to

the citizens of this country. And I like

that they speak up. I do. Even if even

if some of them are are necessary. Your

thoughts?

>> Look, I I think his comments are

powerful. And our nation has a terrible

legacy of outsourcing the externalities

of progress, whether it's the factory

that the the the the coal plant, a

chicken processing plant, or or a plant

that contaminates the water table. We

have a habit of putting these in the

most vulnerable communities who have the

least resources to push back on it. That

is nothing new. Um, so I think it is up

to local civic officials and I think

it's great that when the populace speaks

up and asks their fiduciaries, elected

representatives to make sure that the

upsides and I do think there's an upside

around tax revenue and growth

>> um to a data center that's well planned

and well regulated. I do think there's

an upside. It's up to the local civic

official to say is the upside greater

than the downside here or is this a

function of me getting money from Meta

for my next campaign or or just making a

stupid decision. I do think it has

become

I think a lot of people talking about

this are having a knee-jerk reaction

around what has become an empty vessel

being filled around rage around income

inequality and because these individuals

have not acquitted themselves. And I

think what could fix this

is um essentially um a a a Facebook ad

that says Facebook where your parents go

to get catfish by AI Jesus. I think that

would solve everything. [laughter]

>> Seriously, Meta putting out [ __ ] ads

right now is like trying to put lipstick

on a landfill.

>> Okay. [clears throat] Lipstick

[laughter] on.

>> Should I stop? At what point should I

stop?

>> It's It's just funny. It's just funny.

It's I'm going to get another call. In

any case, uh it's I I it is a real issue

here and I think Evan is speaking

exactly. Willie Nelson is speaking to

it. You better listen to these people.

Uh all you tech companies, you really

better. And and it'll become an issue in

the next electoral cycle

>> 100%. Anyway, let's go on a quick break.

When we come back, uh SpaceX's trillion

dollar uh wipeout.

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Scott, we're back. The SpaceX roller

coaster continues. The stock plunged

more than 20% below its IPO price this

week, wiping out more than $1.2 trillion

in market value, roughly the market cap

of Tesla. Tesla's also suffering. The

stock has bounced back somewhat as of

this recording. It's down, but it's down

3%. Next week could be another wild ride

with SpaceX reporting earnings on

Tuesday and the first insider lockup

expiring 2 days later. How low can these

shares go? They look like they're headed

to they look like they're headed to 100.

I feel like they I feel like they're

going down, but I don't know. I'm not

again I'm not a stock picker and again

Elon has enormous power but it seems

like especially after that interview he

seems insane like it seems people are

not memeing [clears throat] him as much

me. Well, price is what you pay. Value

is what you own. And the price that

people paid after what was arguably, I

think, one of the greatest engineering

feats in history between Goldman JP

Morgan and Elon Musk and the NASDAQ 100

and President Trump and the head of the

SEC to get this thing at out at 120

times revenues.

There's a My son told me this and it

just fascinated me. No basketball no

basketball player has ever been able to

be in the air longer than a second. It's

really weird. For some reason, the unit

of measurement of a second, no one can

stay in the air for a second. gravity

eventually pulls them down. Valuation is

gravity eventually. I don't care if it's

GameStop. No one has been able to defy

gravity. No one gets closer to that 1

second limit than Elon Musk. Hey, look

over here. Oh, we're autonomous. Oh,

we're robots. Don't value me like a car

company. Let's talk about being an

interplanetary species. Let's not talk

about the fact that it's, you know, it's

an interesting company and

>> one great company and then a bunch of

money losing companies. The lockup

expiration here matters more than

earnings. And that is supply. I think

any reasonable math shows that supply is

going to overwhelm the fundamentals in

the short run. And retail investors and

this is what happened at the IPO. Retail

investors consistently confuse a great

company with a great stock.

And at some point, the best company in

the world is overvalued. And at some

point the worst company in the world

unless it's going to zero is

undervalued.

But where's I mean I I I rather than

making a recommendation I tell people

what I'm doing. I'm not getting near

this thing because Elon's not afraid to

come out and say I've have funding

secured at $450 on Twitter and not get

punished and run up a stock. He's also

his stocks tend to be meme stocks that

totally disassociate

>> from value

>> from from actual values. So stay the

[ __ ] away from this thing. But if you're

looking for a bottoms up valuation in

terms of comparing this to its

competitors and saying it's the best in

that space, that bottoms up valuation

would put it at like 20 to 30 bucks a

share, which by the way would still make

it one of the most valuable companies in

tech. Yeah, [snorts] it's down for it's

down 30%. It was at 2011 when it when it

debut its highest has been 2011 uh or

202 really and now it's at 113. Um if it

crosses that $100 barrier, I would

worry, you know what I mean? I think I

would worry of where it was going 100%.

And I would and same thing with Tesla.

They seem like there that right to this

today it's on a real decline. Um but

over the past six months it's dropped.

If you look at anything in the past

month, it's dropped like a like a like

it's credibly it's down to 302. It

probably will pass the $300 barrier. Um,

and those are those are mental things

for people, you know. I think they're

mental things for people. And and again,

valuation maybe making a making a very

strong return here. And Elon's various,

you know, jazz hands is not seeming to

work here. I I don't know what he can do

to well, he could have results, right?

>> Okay. But even to to look at the glasses

half empty, the fact they were able to

engineer

>> Yeah.

>> such an incredible valuation out of the

gates gives some people the impression

that it's cheap now. If it went public

at this valuation, we'd all be like,

"Jesus Christ, can you believe this?"

>> Yeah, you're right. Trilliant. it it's

uh so if the IPO was a win for him even

if no matter what you say even if it's

down and it's a technically a broken IPO

now the fact that he was able to put

that number on this this set of assets

is nothing short of remarkable and also

a lot of the people who he has said

finance a $44 billion purchase of a of a

micro blogging platform that I signed

the paperwork under probably some sort

of drug infused haze

that by most measures is worth 3 to 5

billion. He said to his investors, just

hold on. Trust me, I always I always

make you whole. And you know what he

did?

>> He probably gave those some same people.

Those are probably many of the same

people who have invested along the way

in SpaceX. And quite frankly, they

didn't. They're not subject to lockups.

>> You got into 20. It sounds great. Like

100 is great. 200's better, but 100's

great, too.

>> Yeah. But I had lunch with a guy here in

LA who's who's who's this really

charming, smart, intelligent guy who's

what I would call totally agnostic about

all this stuff. And he's known Elon for

a long time and he's invests in

everything Elon does. And so when he

started investing in SpaceX like 10, 12

years ago, someone just told me he's

made5 billion.

And regardless of what you think of of

Elon's paranoid white nationalist rant

on with the head of the economist and

calling her a traitor because she asks

him tough questions. If someone makes

you that wealthy and if someone is able

to create that kind of value, you just

put money into anything they do,

>> right?

>> And so that that, you know, his his

ability to do that, I mean, there's a

lot of positives. It's a huge win for

him. I do think there's positives for

the economy, but in terms of any bottoms

of valuation, forget that it was a two

204. Just look at it now and you would

in the absence of any history, you would

go, "This thing is the most overvalued

stock in America right now."

>> Right. Yeah. Absolutely. Well, speaking

of a very valuable stock, Apple briefly

hit a $5 trillion market cap for the

first time a day after passing Nvidia to

become the most valuable public company.

It's a busy week for Apple. The company

is launching a new program for customers

to lease iPhones, iPads, Macs, and Apple

watches instead of buying them outright.

This was interesting. The program called

Apple Upgrade uses buy now pay later

company Clara to let people make monthly

payments on the device, then upgrade

buyer return when the lease ends. The

cheapest iPhone option is $17.99 a

month. Apple's move comes a month after

the company raised prices on iPads and

Macs, citing skyrocketing chip costs.

iPhone prices are expected to ra rise

later uh this year. Do you like this

idea? I didn't know what you would think

of it. And also note, we're recording

ahead of Apple's reporting the Q3

earnings, Tim Cook's final earnings as a

CEO. And whatever we think of his stupid

golden statue, he has done an

astonishing job here as CEO in them in

the years after uh Steve Jobs died. What

a what a impressive CEO he's been except

for the golden statue which will follow

him the rest of his days and going to

the Melania premiere. But go ahead. I

don't know who the head of strategy is

at Apple, but I think this group of

people, this man or woman, are literally

some of the brightest people in the

history of business. And whether it was

taking $6 million out of broadcast

advertising and moving it into 550

temples of the brand in a market, one of

the biggest markets in the world,

technology, that had just shitty

distribution. Remember where you used to

go to buy computers?

>> Yes.

>> Egghehead, Comp USA. You had comp Oh,

comput.

>> You literally walked in and or you go to

get your computer fixed, there'd be some

guy

>> in a Harley-Davidson shirt and he give

you a number and put it on a steel rack

and tell you to come back in two weeks

so he could tell you it's it doesn't

work and you need to buy a new computer.

And then they built these places. I'd

like to live in an Apple store.

>> I think if Apple owned a opened a coffee

counter in their stores, it'd be the

most successful retailer in the world

per square foot. And it already is. It

surpassed Tiffany when they opened their

stores. The most successful retailer in

history is a tech company. In addition,

their stock. Okay. You want to talk

about genius? Genius is not only what to

do, it's what not to do.

Who has invested the least in big tech

and AI?

>> Uh, I don't know. But Warren Buffett, I

don't know.

>> Apple.

>> Apple. Yeah.

>> Apple. Apple's decided, okay, kids, you

go play in traffic. We'll wait till this

all gets sorted out after trillions of

dollars in capex

and then we'll move in with an elegant

interface and ownership of the consumer

and we'll we'll monetize it or if we or

we'll just rent it from you and give you

access to the billion wealthiest

consumers in the world. Apple's stock,

it's no accident that the company, the

one company that's decided not to get

into these AI wars,

is up 61%

over the last 12 months. The most

valuable company in the world is up 61%

over the last 12 months.

>> Yeah,

>> these guys these guys and this is this

is the this is what separates the truly

the great CEOs from the iconic CEOs.

It's not what they do, it's what they

don't do.

>> So, what do you think of this upgrade

then? What do what do you think of this?

I think it's actually a good idea. I

have to say, I'm sorry, long-winded

long-winded preamble. This is [ __ ]

genius because the reason why hardware

companies and services companies don't

trade at the same multiple of services

re of software companies is not because

software is just quote unquote a a

better product. It's because it's a

better business model because it's

recurring revenue,

>> right? Adobe changed everything. Adobe

used to

>> used to sell I forget it was called

director whatever for you know software

in a box for $2,500 and then they hope

three years later you go buy another one

for $2,400 and instead they said we're

going to charge you 25 bucks a month and

their stock got cut in half and since

then it's up 40x because the market

loves recurring revenue. You can better

plan your capex. You can better plan

your revenues. It's just more the way I

described I was in a relationship with

someone who was bipolar and I said I'm

in a revenue I'm I'm in a relationship

with a transactional business model. I

don't know who I'm waking up next to. I

don't know how to predict this person.

>> A recurring revenue business is in a

being in a relationship with someone

who's just totally consistent and you

know you know what to expect.

>> But now you don't always like buy now

pay later. You you you often decry buy

now pay later.

>> Yeah. But that buy now pay later is this

is different. this

>> buy now pay later. You come up to the

till at Urban Outfitters and you're

going to Coachella and they go, "You

know what? Go go go shop and buy another

$300 and we'll give you instant credit."

I think that's different than this. This

is basically selling a subscription to

the Apple ecosystem.

>> I would agree. It's hardware as a

service. It's

>> and people It's easier to say, "I'm not

going to buy the next iPhone versus I'm

going to cancel my subscription." It

increases lifetime customer value.

>> I'm going to do this

>> and it lowers the psychological barrier

to higher prices. So, and I believe I

believe I just presented I'm bragging I

just presented to the CEO and the

management team of Mercedes and I

basically said the future of consumer

products isn't ownership. It's recurring

revenue. It's subscription. And they

asked me for one idea and I said, I I

love the Mercedes brand. I think it's

they great products, love the brand. I

want to pay a monthly fee and have you

just show up with the car I should have,

take care of everything, service it when

I'm out of town, know everything about

me, maybe invite me to a cool couple

events, say, "Okay, you've had this

thing 3 years. You just had a kid. You

need a truck now." And take all of the

decisions, all of the brain damage. I

never want to go into a car dealership

again

>> and give me a good deal. I don't want to

know the I don't want to negotiate

price, by the way. Include insurance,

include fin. just do everything for me

and charge me a monthly fee.

>> Yep.

>> And the market

>> it might be slightly more. It might be

slightly more, but you don't care cuz

it's the convenience factor. I I'm doing

this. I have to say I had never I have

not bought a new phone and I was going

to buy another one. I'm like, it's

$1,000. It probably will cost me more,

but I can always upgrade it. Like I feel

like good about it. I know it sounds I

can I feel it. I just want to rent it. I

just want to rent it really in many

ways. If Apple said to you and me, "All

right, Scott, you buy everything Apple.

We have your purchase history. With your

permission, we want to use AI to know

exactly what you need when you need it.

We're going to charge you 100, 200, $300

a month, and you're going to get

everything a month early."

>> And by the way, in case you're

interested, you can come to the cool

Apple event or whatever if you're really

that big a fan.

>> Oh, you and by the way, we're going to

invite you occasionally to an a premiere

of a great Apple movie. you're going to

become and it's $300 a month. And I'd

think, oh, $300 a month? I spent so much

on these 200. I spent so We're going to

send you the latest MacBook. We're going

to send you the coolest AirPods. We see

you're an AirPod weirdo and you love

these things. We're going to send them

with your name incribed.

>> You want a t-shirt? Cool.

>> Whatever it is, I'm in.

>> And then the market turns around and it

says, "Okay,

my first company, Profit Brand Strategy,

was a strategy firm. It sold for 2.8

times revenues. I started the same

business called L2, basically helping

firms make better decisions with data,

but I charged an annual membership fee.

I charge Nike a half a million dollars a

year instead of charging them a million

dollars every three years for a strategy

engagement.

>> L2 got sold for eight times revenues.

The market loves recurring revenues and

Apple keeps figuring out big decisions

and ways

>> to not only be the most valuable company

in the world, but to provide

unbelievable return on investment. I'm

just I'm so impressed not with what they

do, but what they don't do. Do you

remember how many people were calling

for Apple to launch new products, launch

a car?

>> You want to You know what it takes big

balls? Not to launch a car, but to pull

the plug on a car because you don't

think it's going to offer the same

return on invested capital as other

projects.

>> Yep. Absolutely.

>> I'm very impressed with Apple.

>> I I agree. I agree. I actually had a

just a funny little basket of stock tech

stocks with $10,000 and Apple just I was

losing money on a bunch of them. G I'm

just testing things and Apple has taken

me back up the top. I was like thank you

Apple. I just interesting things we talk

about is just sort of a test thing and I

do thank them. I'm going to do this

program. I am I just easier. It's just

easier. It's just easier and more

convenient. And it also lets people who

want to have an Apple phone and can't

maybe uh can't afford the thousands to

be part of it like in a way that's much

more you know it sort of it gets them to

the lower price customer. I do think

this happens. Um, and it doesn't break

these customers the way say a like a

ridiculous mortgage or something would

do. And it gives them a better phone.

All right, let's go on a quick break.

>> Just before we go on a quick break, I do

have another tagline for Facebook.

[laughter]

>> Okay,

>> you ready? Meta, ignore the smell coming

from the basement.

>> Oh, I shouldn't have said anything. I

[sighs and gasps]

>> Thank God.

>> This show brings me so much joy.

>> I know it does. Okay, let's go on a

quick break. When we come back,

>> all I'm doing is I'm addicted to the

meth and I'm [ __ ] posting the dealer.

I'm allowed to do that. [laughter]

>> Okay. Okay. When we come back, Mitch

McConnell gets an ultimatum.

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>> Scott, we're back. Kentucky Governor

Andy Basher is giving Senator Mitch

McConnell an ultimatum. Prove you can

still serve or resign. Basher sent

McConnell a letter this week demanding

he directly and verbally address the

people of Kentucky to prove his capacity

to serve. If that doesn't happen, Basher

is urging Senate Majority Leader John

Thun to investigate McConnell's

condition. This comes as McConnell's

office released another photo that again

sparked conspiracy theories because of

the shirt or something with a statement

the center is not medically cleared to

leave his rehab facility. It was very I

have to say the um the the note was very

what it left out speaking of omission.

It didn't talk about cognitive issues.

It just talked about physical issues

which was interesting. Um but it's not

enough. The doctor tried his best to

tell the truth is what I when I looked

at it but it's not enough uh for Basher.

Let's listen what he told reporters on

Tuesday.

>> If he can have a 17 minutes conversation

with his protege, he can call into any

of your news stations for three. All

we're asking is just a little bit of

proof. And I get that everybody wants a

certain level of privacy, but when you

run for these jobs, you know, you're

given uh some of that up. We have seen

rampid speculation across social media

and elsewhere. It could all be fully

avoided, and it's all within Senator

McConnell's power. So, under Kentucky

law, Senate vacancies are filled by a

special election. Basher is not allowed

to appoint a temporary replacement. Um,

it's also important for his presidential

run for him to look strong here. It's

that that's what it's playing into. Um,

is this a strongly worded letter going

to do anything here? Because that's what

it is. It's a I I urge you to say

something. Um, or they just ignore it. I

would assume McConnell, who is, you

know, has always been sort of taking

[clears throat] the lowest road he could

in many ways. Um although Trump has

managed to get on lower roads than he

is. Um I I think he they'll do nothing.

They'll just they'll just ignore this.

>> I don't know. I I think the pressure

will will mount.

I mean I feel like Mitch McConnell has

become the modern day equivalent of

Bigfoot. Like oh wait, we saw him. It's

not real. I I

and look this is America has mandatory

retirement ages for airline pilots but

not for people making decisions about

nuclear weapons and fiscal policy which

is just insane and this is an example of

it. This is this story really isn't

about Senator McConnell. It's about a a

political system that has no graceful

exit for aging leaders. And every

institution, especially democracy, needs

succession planning. And politicians are

some of the few people that are allowed

to ignore mortality and biology. And

just to another shout out to Apple and

Tim Cook,

again, one of the hardest things in

leadership

>> to leave

>> isn't knowing when to take over. It's

knowing when to leave. And it's insane

that these people, when you get older,

we [clears throat] purposefully have a

difficult time believing that we're ever

going to die. We know it, but we don't

believe it. And that is we think, "Oh,

I'll figure it out, and I'm still adding

value." And also, to be blunt, for a lot

of these people who have devoted their

lives to work, them leaving is them

acknowledging they're about to die. And

so, they don't want to leave. And they

keep coming up with reasons why they

should stay. [snorts] The political

system rewards incumbency.

And so we need mandatory retirement ages

and term limits.

>> Well, can I one of the things that's

been interesting about besides the

social media stuff, which some of it is

very funny, some of the fake things,

it's it's been a very it's been a very

amusing uh people doing things around

McConnell. And actually, um I was at

Joanna Kohl's and uh Ben Sherwood last

night at dinner and they were saying the

McConnell stuff really is popular. Like

you was surprised. I thought it would be

all Trump or whatever, but McConnell

stuff is really popular on this on the

Daily Beast. Um, but what's interesting

is some things that I think are more

serious where people are going, okay, I

had a cesarian and I had to get back to

work in 5 seconds. Like, you know, I had

I was out for a medical thing and my

work didn't let me. And I think even if

it's like kind of like that to me is

actually very resonant is like he gets

to be quiet. He has a one of the most

important jobs in the country and he

gets as much time off as he wants and he

doesn't have to explain himself. I have

like a minor a thing that requires a lot

of medical attention and I've got to get

back to work. There is something

brewing. It's like the data centers. I

feel like there's sort of this anger

like why does this guy get to be get get

the get to be have privacy when I have

to get back to work immediately? I've

seen a ton of that lately. Mitch

McConnell is is another empty vessel for

for rage. And it's it people look I

think the most secretive thing in the

world right now would be if if all of a

sudden everyone over the age of 70 had

had to announce their retirement, would

the world be a better place?

Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump are

too old to be serving. They're too old.

And yeah, you you you need wisdom, but

more than that, you need rigorous

critical thinking and energy and also

you need a fresh creative dynamism. The

the best thing in my opinion that this

the far left that we talk a lot about,

they are bringing the creativity and the

dynamism. You need that. You need

turnover.

And

it's the same. This is this is why I

think we're going to win the the the

seat in Maine or when I say we

Democrats, I think people see are going

to see at some point Susan M. Susan

McConnell seems to be like hiding in

Mitch McConnell bathroom.

>> It's not Susan McColl.

>> I'm sorry. Susan Collins.

>> You can call it might as well be Susan

McConnell.

>> I get the sense she's in the room next

door. I mean, she's not she's an old

lady and she presents as even older.

>> Yeah. And aging comes for all of us.

>> It comes for all of us. That's not It's

not an indictment. It's a reality.

>> And I think that's why we're going to

win the seat.

>> We found a guy with chest hair who

doesn't appear to be a rapist and he's

not 105.

>> Ding ding ding ding ding. And

>> but it is a proxy. It is a proxy of like

why don't we know about the president's

health? All of them. Like why don't we

get why do they get off? Why why do they

get to build data centers and we have to

put up with it? Why do we have why do

they get all the money? Why do they get

all the deals? There is a it's part of

the same like you're getting these

people are [ __ ] you. And I I I do

think it's I think it could take very

ugly turns as as it I agree. Mom Donnie

should not have done that. It takes ugly

turns instead of Yeah. Why not? Why

can't we get our fair share? And I think

it's a very good I think it's a very

good fair share is a very good way to

talk about it. And why does Mitch

McConnell get to be quiet? Why does he

precisely? I don't care about his

privacy. He He shouldn't have been the

majority leader or whatever.

>> That That's like saying a 65-year-old

pilot

can't have can't be tested for cognitive

ability or reflexes because of his

privacy.

>> Yeah, exactly. Same thing. Like I feel

like I said this to a public official.

They were giving me hard time. I go,

"You know what? You work for me." Like

sorry. Like I I know you've forgotten

that, but the fact of the matter is you

work for the public and you don't get to

you don't get like we don't have to be

nice about it. I just I there's just a

brewing thing and it could go in a

really ugly direction. I wish it

wouldn't if these people would just He

should resign. He's clearly not able to

do his job. He should resign. That's

>> Well, this is all Isn't this like

they're trying to hold out such that

>> I don't think there's any plus

>> the governor doesn't get to appoint it.

had said.

>> No, I don't think there's I don't I

think he's not there, so he doesn't

vote. So great, let him sit there like

and Steu he doesn't get to vote. He

doesn't it there's the vote is gone in

the Senate right now is what it is. The

vote is gone. If he tries to vote,

that's he better walk in. That's all.

You know, if he tries to vote or

anything else,

>> my man in terms of who's his

replacement, who gets to decide when he

dies.

>> I think it doesn't matter at this point.

I think it doesn't. No, [clears throat]

I think it's just a it's just a point

that and I think Basher's presidential

election is going to hinge a little bit

on this. I'm sure he doesn't love it,

but if I if I were him, I'd show up at

the hospital. I would for the people of

of of the state. I'm here as for the

representing as the governor of the

state. I want to see how you are and

assess your ability to do your job for

the people of the state. That's what I

would do. He he won't do it, but that's

what I would do. and then just get

turned away and get turned away even if

he did it. I think it's a pretty good

stunt. Anyway, one more quick break.

We'll be back for predictions. Okay,

Scott, let's hear a prediction and try

not to make an insult to Mark Zuckerberg

if you [laughter] can.

>> It's really Yeah. No, this it's totally

inappropriate what I've been saying. My

prediction is that this ridiculous

notion that

uh one of the most corrupt organizations

is going to get financing from a crime

family, the Trump family, to take FIFA

private and or turn it into a public

company.

>> This won't happen or it's going to get

water down beyond recognition. And

here's why.

>> It's a 20 billion It's a It's a$20

billion company. UEFA has already fired

an opening shot and they have and they

effectively have veto power. I'm not I'm

not just saying this because of what I

want to see happening. I think just if

you look at the industrial logic here or

the mechanics, this isn't going to

happen. The bottom line is the World Cup

is not FIFAs to sell and and UEFA the

governing body has already said none of

us are are the owners of football.

That's not a press release. That's the

body that controls the Champions League,

FIFA's most credible commercial threat,

declaring war on day one.

And there's also a precedent in 2018,

Infantino tried the exact move with

SoftBank Saudi money at 25 billion

uh and UEFA killed it because they saw

it as a threat to their own prize

assets. So this is the same playbook,

same opponent and same likely outcome.

He's, you know, he's already tried this

and he's 0 for one in the exact same

context,

>> right?

>> And 211 members have to say yes. And

FIFA is already trying to buy their

votes with cash, not consensus.

uh you know uh the the and also the

Kushner connection makes this whole

thing radioactive just not you know not

just controversial Kushner is even less

popular. Have you seen what's happened

at this Albanian island that Ivanka

decided was just magical?

>> Yep. Yep. Yes, I did.

>> So Trump Albanians are not having it.

>> Not having Trump's son-in-law running

the money side of the World Cup right

after Trump and Infantino stood together

at the final after Infantino gave him a

peace prize. It's a conflict of interest

story that writes itself for every

journalist and every rival federation

looking for a reason to vote no. Um

anyways, this isn't FIFA doesn't need

the money. This gets re this gets

>> rebrand Josh Kushner's investment

vehicle,

>> right? Go to finance it. Look,

>> they're trying to monetize what is this

global asset of goodwill.

>> They're separate. Just so you're aware,

they're separate, but go ahead. So

anyways, my prediction, this thing gets

rebranded or negotiated or shrunk to a

much smaller Kushner optic scrub version

before September 19th

because Infantino keeps proposing

commercialization deals that die the

moment a rival um Confederation smells a

threat to its own assets. There are

competing assets here. Uh so he'll

probably get some increased member

payouts. He won't get kind of a

privatized World Cup. the soccer. You

want to talk about an asset that the

world believes they have a vested

ownership in.

>> Everybody does. Yeah.

>> It's the same It's the same themes we've

been talking about.

>> This is going to be more. You want you

ought to see the emotion of data centers

times 8. By the way, speaking of which,

I'm going on Bill Maher today or

whenever this thing's released.

>> And you know who the upfront interview

is?

>> Who?

>> Aaron Brochovich.

>> Oh, yeah. She'll she's coming on my

podcast in a couple in two weeks. Yeah.

Yeah. She's doing the data center stuff.

>> So, that'll be make for an interesting

um uh that'll make for an interesting

conversation.

>> She's actually galvanized a lot of

people, which is interesting. Um let me

just read something from Australian

Politico um that that Infantino's

political future may be on the US

midterm ballot. There's a lot of

Democrats waiting to pounce here because

it's such a popular thing. He's of

course this says if control of Congress

flips in the fall, those same ties could

become a political liability for

Infantino as he seeks re-election at top

the Swiss-based nonprofit he has led for

a decade. Listen to this quote. The

perfect storm scenario in the FIFA

world, said one person involved in the

highest levels of global soccer granted

animity to discuss sensitive internal

politics. I think they will find a

candidate to run against him, especially

if midterms slip control and if things

were to start pouring out, but a lot

needs to happen in the next 3 or 4

months. I think he's reached too far in

Fatino.

>> Actually, you know what? That would have

been a better prediction because his

rival competing for the top spot will

just attach him to Trump who's even less

popular overseas than he is

domestically.

>> Yeah,

>> that would have been a better

prediction. That would have been more

elegant.

>> Anyway, I think you'll you'll like

congrat

to you on Bill Maher, by the way. I

think that's interesting. Anyway, want

to hear from you. Send us your questions

about business tech or whatever's on

your mind. and go to nymag.com/pivot

to submit a question for the show or

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We'll be back next week.

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