If they did a microdrama about your

life, what would it be called?

>> CAOS.

>> Okay.

>> [music]

>> Hi everyone. This is Pivot from New York

Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast

Network. I'm Kara Swisher.

>> And I'm Scott Galloway.

>> Scott, we're here in California, the

hellscape behind us. It's really quite

>> It's awful here. I don't know how people

survive this dry weather, the breeze,

the ocean, the In-N-Out Burger.

>> Yeah.

>> God, awful.

>> Yeah. So, we're here at a conference.

We're recording this live in front of a

live audience at CAO Summit in Los

Angeles. This is the Terranea where

again I used to run the Code Conference

here for many, many years and

>> Yeah.

>> many memories. There There really are a

lot of memories here of doing things.

>> Yeah, this is Yeah, you're absolutely

This is kind of where you This is where

you made Mark Zuckerberg sweat.

This is It's spectacular on it.

>> sweat. He sweat cuz he had a panic

attack.

>> Uh okay.

>> Okay.

>> Yeah, no, I think you pressed him.

>> real memory for me is this is actually

the last interview

that Steve Jobs ever did. He did several

interviews here, but the last one before

he died was here, which was really an

amazing interview. It was actually just

in this ballroom here.

And one of the things that I remember

before that when we did Gates and Jobs

together is

when we had Mark here the year he sweat.

All he wanted to do he was was an

up-and-coming entrepreneur. The Facebook

wasn't very big. And all he wanted to do

was meet Steve Jobs, like kind of like a

fanboy, which was really something else.

So, I introduced them,

which was kind of a moment. It was

actually literally right down on this

lawn right here. So, it's Place is full

of memories. So, what have you been

doing this week, Scott? You We went to

You just became a regent of the

University of California.

>> Yeah, and and thank you.

In other news, Joe Rogan has been

appointed to head of the CDC.

>> Yeah.

>> Did you Let me be honest, when you saw

this morning, did you think it was The

Onion?

>> I did. I did. I didn't think it was

real. I was like, what is Gavin up to?

Like, what was happening? And they they

also called you the left-wing Joe Rogan.

>> Yeah.

>> In the story in the New York California

Post in New York Post.

>> graduates of the University of

California do we have here?

So,

um, I you know, I don't like to talk

about myself, but I will for just a

moment here. Um,

uh, so everyone or when you get to a

certain age, you want to be on a

important boards. You want to be on uh,

you know, organizations that are

innovators. I would argue that the

University of California is the greatest

innovation machine in history. We have

uh, 75 Nobel Prizes, four of five last

year,

uh, 300,000 students, 200,000

uh, faculty, um, 7,500 PhDs, more

startups creating more value than any

nation in history with the exception of

the US and China,

and consistently punching out, you know,

giving unremarkable people remarkable

opportunities. And just a flashback to

when I applied on UCLA Berkeley,

admissions rate when I applied was 74%

to UCLA.

And I was one of the 26% that didn't get

in.

>> Wow. Well done.

>> True story.

>> Well done.

>> installing shelving, came home, my mom

said, let's appeal. And uh, I remember

when they called me and said, you're not

qualified, but you're native son of

California, we're going to let you in.

And then I rewarded them with a 2.27

GPA, true story from UCLA. And this is

how

>> you got 2.27?

>> to graduate.

>> It's not easy to do, to get a 2.27.

>> it's not easy.

>> Would you not go to classes?

>> No, I learned I learned every line from

Planet of the Apes and how to make bongs

out of household items.

>> Okay. All right.

>> And then this is how different the

University of California was back then.

I got into Berkeley's Haas School of

Business with a 2.27 GPA.

And then quite frankly, like a lot of

men who have a immature prefrontal

cortex, I got my [ __ ] together.

And so, uh, just a virtue signal, my my

sole mission is accessibility and

figuring out a way that we can let in

more unremarkable kids that might get to

do remarkable things. Anyways, that's my

my That's my story. I'm sticking with

it.

>> I'm still stuck with 2.27.

Is that like a D?

>> A lot of I had nine F's. So,

I got a job at Morgan Stanley cuz I lied

about my grades.

And I but I I wasn't going to be able to

graduate cuz I couldn't pass calculus. I

failed it twice and I was failing it but

and if you fail something the third time

at UC, you're not allowed to take the

class again. And I was going to have to

become a psych major and go seven years

undergrad.

>> Wow.

>> And so, I looked up the nine F's that

I've got. This is all true. And I went

to all of these professors and I walked

in and said, "If you give me a D, I give

you I get the units and I get to go to

Morgan Stanley and you get to give this

valuable seat to someone else." And

within about 20 minutes, I got three

professors who were basically like, "You

disgust me." And

>> [laughter]

>> and I was off to Morgan Stanley to build

the world's fixed income.

>> Wow.

>> And then '08 happened.

>> Yeah.

>> Put the dots together.

>> Wow. That's amazing.

What do you think I got in college? My

grade point average?

>> imagine you got every award and were

recruited by the best companies and the

best newspapers in the world.

>> No. No, I was rejected by most

newspapers. Cuz there weren't jobs then.

The journal journal journalism was

undergoing a crisis.

>> You went to Georgetown, no?

>> I did. Yeah.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

>> to the foreign service school.

>> That's right.

>> Yeah.

>> Sorry. Carol wanted to be in our in our

work in our security apparatus.

>> I would. I wanted to be in the military.

>> because of her

her her

um

lifestyle.

>> Yes, my lifestyle.

>> Just got very quiet in here.

>> [laughter]

>> No, I was gay. I wasn't allowed to be in

the military. So,

>> There you go.

>> um and I always joked that I would be

the admiral Trump would be firing right

now. um

out from out of the military, which

would

would be fantastic in many ways. I'd be

wearing these glasses for sure. So,

we're going to move on with the show.

We're going to talk about it. I actually

just I just got here because I spent a

lot of time with three possible

Democratic candidates.

>> Go on.

>> I So, I went I interviewed Gina

Raimondo, who is the former governor of

Rhode Island.

>> Yeah.

>> Uh and also the Commerce Secretary who

passed the Chips Act and and the

infrastructure bill. Um I was with Pete

Buttigieg in Michigan, where he lives,

Traverse City.

>> Yep.

>> Um and I was with J.B. Pritzker this

morning. So, it was interesting. It was

a little tour of the day.

>> the three have no chance. One's too

female and one's too short.

>> Okay. All right.

>> True story, folks. We're highly sexist

and looksist in this nation. Absolutely

no chance.

>> Well,

we'll see. In any case, they were they

were very impressive.

>> True.

>> All right, who's going to be the

presidential candidate then for that for

>> It'll either be Gavin Newsom or TBD.

America likes to fall in love with

someone they don't know well before Fox

destroys them. It'll be a Democrat.

>> Right.

>> America likes to go back and forth, but

tall, handsome, Californian who's got a

good story.

J.B. Pritzker, outside shot, good dad

energy. Ossoff, if he can maintain the

whole Camelot Kennedy thing, but Fox

will soon turn its sights on him and

we'll find out something weird. That

guy's too

>> He's being called Hotlanta now.

>> That guy's too perfect. There's got to

be some weird [ __ ] in there.

That's who I would bet on.

>> And here is our political pundit going

on. Anyway, we're going to talk about

things.

>> I was the guy that Mondale poster in my

fraternity room. And I supported

Dukakis. I just hope I hosted a

fundraiser in 2020 for Michael Bennet.

So, I am not good at picking candidates.

>> Let Let me say, ladies and gentlemen,

2.27 average.

>> Um so, I'm going to go on to the topics.

This is something you do know a lot more

about. Donald Trump's tariffs are making

their not-so-triumphant return. Uh he

imposed a 50% tariff on Canadian goods

like alcohol, milk, and hockey sticks

this week, justifying the move with an

unused provision of the 1930

Smoot-Hawley Act.

>> Smoot-Hawley.

>> Smoot-Hawley. Uh this is just the

beginning. Trump is reportedly set to

unleash new tariffs on a dozen countries

cuz it worked so well the last time,

given his 10% uh, temporary global

tariffs are about to expire. Uh, the

Supreme Court struck down his liberation

day tariffs earlier this year, but the

White House keeps attempting various

workarounds given the havoc that the

Iran war is wreaking on the economy, um,

which is still ongoing, uh, even though

it was supposed to be over many times.

Um, is it really now the time to impose

tariffs?

>> Well, look, if you were were running

above 4% inflation, and if you were and

it came down, but it looks like it's

flipping back up. That doesn't sound

like a lot, but that means if you're

about to have a kid, we just met uh,

someone who's expecting. By the time

that kid goes to college, if it

maintains a 4%, that means tuition

uh, 40,000 goes to 80,000. So, inflation

is how countries basically go

devolve into chaos. Like, the Fed is

there basically to ensure employment

growth and to make sure inflation

doesn't get out of control. And you can

have a lot of unemployment, and people

don't riot, but when people are working

two jobs, and they can't afford, you

know, bread, that's when they that's

when they overthrow the government. So,

inflation is

is really scary. And if you were to

reverse engineer that four points, two

of the four points can be attributed to

one, the skyrocketing energy crisis

energy prices and tariffs. Tariffs will

take approximately

uh, $1,000 toll on every household this

year. It'll go to $1,200 on every

household average if these tariffs go

through.

And about 90% of uh, those tariffs are

being borne by US consumers. When I was

in graduate school, we we literally used

to look at tariffs as an example of

could you believe how stupid we were to

do these things?

>> Right, specifically the Smoot-Hawley

Act.

>> Exactly, and it was considered

antiquated and something we would never

do again. And then unfortunately,

probably our strongest ally, largest

undefended border in the world is

Canada.

80% of their exports kind of mean, this

is really ugly for Canada. 80% of their

exports come into the US.

And to believe that somehow part of this

whole narrative is this grievance

culture, that we're victims, that we're

being taken advantage of. If there's

anyone being taken advantage of, it's

our trading partners cuz the way if you

think about what we sell into Canada, we

sell iPhones and JP Morgan and

advertising services into Canada. Those

are high-margin products. The margin on

an iPhone is 40 or 60 points. So, on

$100 worth of iPhones that we ship into

Canada, we get to hold on to 40 or 60

bucks, call it 50 bucks. Apple trades at

a P of 30. So, that's about $1,500 in

shareholder value. When they sell $100

worth of timber

>> Or hockey sticks or hockey sticks.

>> you're talking about 20 or 30 points of

gross margin in a company that trades at

a multiple of 10. So, for every dollar

we ship over, we get about 20 in or 10

to 20 in shareholder value for every

dollar they sell of their stuff and

they're getting two or three. So,

there's there's any dramatic asymmetry

in trade that's accruing to one partner,

it's the US. If anyone should be putting

tariffs on a nation,

logically, they would be putting tariffs

on us. So, the net effect of tariffs is

that the market for our products

declines or shrinks, but our products,

the things we buy, become more

expensive.

>> partners or allow other partners in,

whether it's Chinese cars or Chinese AI

open-source models or whatever they

happen to buy, they will have stronger

relationships with others.

Particularly China.

>> Oh, absolutely. I think they've I mean,

they're going to pay a huge price.

And I've said this It's like that Animal

House film when Otter says to the guy

who apparently lent his parents' car car

to the fraternity brothers and they

crashed it and he looks at him and said,

"You [ __ ] up. You trusted us."

That's how Canada feels about the US

right now. They [ __ ] up, they trusted

us. They thought they had a great ally,

they thought they had a great trading

partner. They don't. We were willing to

basically neuter them economically.

>> do you think Trump is doing this? I

mean, he was mad about the wildfires. I

think they were sending us beautiful

orange skies in honor of him. Um but uh

but why?

>> I I can't I can't imagine a more elegant

way to reduce the prosperity of

Americans than tariffs. I don't

>> No.

>> I can't understand what he's thinking.

Even supposedly his inner circle has

said this is a terrible idea.

>> Right. And yet

>> And yet here we are. You know, I don't

>> Um another story, Calsher just launched

uh a new midterms hub tracking real-time

odds for every House and Senate race

across the country. Calsher is calling

it a one-stop shop for election

forecasting serving the public,

campaign, journalists, policymakers, and

researchers. By the way, roughly 75% of

people are going to Calsher are there to

check odds, 25% are trading, more than

$30 have already been traded in wages

about the control of the House and the

Senate, and a spike in the prediction

market volume is expected as we get

closer to the election. Now, you you put

a lot of faith in the predictions

market. I find them very game-oriented,

meaning they can be easily gamed uh by

by not-so-great people. I also have an

issue with Polymarket uh given the kind

of things they allow people to bet on.

Uh there's an interesting story in the

New York Times today about an investment

firm that Don Jr. is involved in that

somehow has 200% returns,

which are unprecedented and is well,

probably because of his large brain. Um

I'm guessing not. But talk about about

these markets cuz if you were advising a

campaign, what would you tell them about

them? You put a lot of faith in them, I

put less so.

>> Yeah, so I'm not I'm not making a

qualitative judgment on whether

prediction markets are good or bad. I

have real concerns around gaming and

gambling and its impact on young men,

but polling companies are basically

going out of business

because if you want to know how someone

what someone really thinks, don't ask

them what they think, ask them where

they're putting their money.

That is it ends up that the wisdom of

crowds in terms of their what they're

actually wagering on, what they're

actually voting with their wallet.

So, for example, Cal Calshi has never

gotten a fed rate decision wrong. And

it's the data I've seen is it's they're

78% of the time they're able to predict

an outcome in an election, which is

greater or they're 78% more accurate.

And some polling firms are basically

going out of business because think

about the people a polling firm calls

that you pick up your phone, you fill

out a survey. That's not always very

accurate in terms of the actual

election.

Um so, these these firms what's

interesting about the election side,

it'll get more headline news than it is

a business. The total election business

for Calshi is somewhere between 1 and 2%

of the revenue.

>> Right.

>> Five and a half billion dollars was

wagered on the World Cup final. This is

a tiny business for them. But it gets a

lot of headline press because it's

pretty accurate. They're predicting I

think about a 70 or 78% likelihood that

Democrats overtake the take the

take the house, but only 45% that they

take the Senate.

But I find that that data so far, if I

think of a source of truth or accuracy,

I think of the I go to prediction

markets.

>> Polymarket and Calshi? These are the two

big ones.

>> So, I go to

>> And apparently Facebook is also

considering putting one together.

>> Yeah, I I think I think of Calshi just

cuz I think it's a bigger and has more

liquidity and has more

just more volume of people spending

their money, if you will or

>> What's the biggest worry you have of

them right now right now? Because as

they become more and more cuz they were

betting on drug outcomes, they're

betting on illnesses, disasters,

you know, the apparently Trump, the guy

who does the teleprompter for Trump was

betting on what he would say in the

speech cuz since he knew

and is is under investigation for that.

>> Yeah, there's some scenarios where you

could see someone

finding a market where they say, "Okay,

someone's going to be hurt or killed or

whatever." And they start doing strange

acts in order to bet money. But that's

no different than fixing like the World

Series. And then there's fears around

insider trading, but I think ultimately

the insider trading will be arbited out

when people realize

that if there's anyone that could have

inside information, they shouldn't bet

on the other side.

My biggest fear is very simple, and that

is we have millions of young men who

every day are being seduced by screens

and algorithms to spend another second

on a screen and another second less with

their relationships. And we're slowly

but surely evolving a new species of

asocial asexual males. They become

obese, depressed, anxious, and start

blaming women for their romantic

problems and immigrants for their

economic problems. And some we're

producing a cohort of really shitty

citizens that threaten the nation.

That's what I'm worried about, Carol.

>> All right, other than that, Cal, she's

fantastic.

>> Yeah.

>> All right, let's go on a quick break. We

come back, speaking of the midterms,

we'll talk about Anthropic's big spend.

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>> Scott, we're back. Um Anthropic is

making a big bet on the midterms,

recently doubling its spending to a

total of $40 million. The

money is going into Public First Action,

a PAC pushing for AI regulation. It's a

counterweight to leading Future, a PAC

backed by Andreessen Horowitz and

OpenAI's Greg Brockman. It's not just

exacts filing show Anthropic and OpenAI

employees are emerging as a new donor

class, pouring money into races.

Anthropic is also writing big checks

outside of politics. A federal judge

approved the company's $1.5 billion

settlement with with authors whose work

were used to train Anthropic's AI model

Claude, their essentially thievery of

copyright. Uh the crypto folks had a

major impact on the last election. Is

this the AI election? Um we had talked

about that. Obviously, Sherrod Brown got

his he may be back. Uh got got whacked

by the crypto people. Uh I think Elon's

now put $90 million into the midterms

right now. Is it again going to be Is it

all about AI at this point? Well, I've

been doing all the talking. What do you

think?

>> I I think that's what they're doing. I

think they really very much want to

control. They're very worried about a

couple of things. One is

um the regulation around the country

around AI in states. They're

particularly nervous about that, of

which are popping up everywhere, the

uses of AI. They're worried about the

uses um I think the the idea of social

media being banned, they're sort of

getting used to that. And France just

did that. Um I think that they are

worried about data centers. And as you

say, as a proxy for everything else. a

long talk with someone from one of these

companies today about what to do and

maybe change their tone uh with citizens

on data centers uh cuz they realize they

look like villains. Um and what can we

do to not look like villains and they

were asking me at my advice and I said

well maybe don't be villains. Um which

they were like we're not villains. I'm

like people hate you. Which is what I

had told them at a dinner a while back.

I said people hate you and they're going

to hate you more. Um so I think them

entering even more politics is really

problematic for all of us because you

know

we don't want to get into a sharks

versus jets thing between the anthropic

people and the um

and the open AI Elon Musk and Andreessen

gang essentially. That's what it feels

like. Um because I don't think it's in

the interests of good legislation. I

don't think it's the interest of safety.

I don't think it's in the interests of

bringing AI to all of us. I think it's

the interests of protecting what their

businesses essentially.

>> Yeah, the way I read this so um

anthropic is claiming they're putting

money into an organization that's

actually promoting

stricter AI regulation which feels sort

of counterintuitive cuz typically an

industry or a pack representing a an

industry

gives money to try and stave off or

delay and obfuscate regulation.

I sort of saw it as they recognize how

powerful and what a great ROI it is to

invest in Washington. So this is sort of

their ticket to the conference where

they're going to network and establish

relationships should they need

uh those relationships.

>> I don't think any of them have an

interest in any actual legislation. None

at all.

>> I think this Mark Zuckerberg did this.

Please regulate us. Please regulate us

and then did everything possible to stop

it. Uh even Apple does it. They we talk

about age verification and other things

and they block it everywhere you go and

I don't think I think these people like

no regulation and I think this money is

incredibly dangerous by this one group

of people. Um no matter what side

they're on. I I mean I don't like either

side pretty much.

>> Yeah, look it's all all roads lead to

the same place unless we overturn

Citizens United and we get some

semblance uh

I mean

I I think that money is going to decide

this election for the most part or have

a big influence on it and

companies running unfettered

it's just uh anyway we I'm I'm a broken

record.

>> Well, speaking of that, they may not

have unfettered money. Executives at

OpenAI and Anthropic are warning about

the rise of cheap AI from China, which

we've talked about a lot, saying it will

lead to security risks and a dystopian

future. The Trump administration says it

will look into whether AI has been

distilled from American models, of

course they have, saying it doesn't

support IP theft, which is rich from

these people.

Um in an attempt to gain ground over

China, the US plans to overhaul federal

funding to support individual scientists

and the use of AI rather than

universities, uh which is individual

This is a real problem. They're starting

to give money to individual star

scientists. Meanwhile, on a security

front, OpenAI models went rogue and

hacked a startup, Hugging Face, during a

security test. Um they were bragging

about it a little bit. It was

unprecedented that we managed to attack

another company. What happened was the

AI jumped out of the sandbox it was in

and went around all of OpenAI's security

uh efforts and and went and attacked a

company on its own. Um so I to me, I'm

not sure these executives are worried

about the future or just worried about

competition. How do you look at this?

You were the first to mention this to

me, this this threat from um

this threat from China.

>> Well, in January of 2025, which was not

long ago, about 10% of token usage was

coming from Chinese open weight models.

As of today, it looks like it's 58%.

So, what you effectively are saying is

this bifurcation in the market where

American models are turning into German

automobile manufacturers.

They're high-end, they're more

expensive, and even though you have 58%

token usage from the Chinese models on a

revenue side, the American models, the

Frontier models, are much bigger

businesses because Deep Seek charges

about 1/35

of the price for token usage. So, I

think this is just turning into the

automobile market where you're going to

have a high-end BMW or Mercedes,

uh and then you're going to have Toyota,

Hyundai, you know, uh

Honda. So,

they'll produce more cars, they'll

produce more AI, it'll be lower margin,

but the market's bifurcating. And we're

There's still a market for the Frontier

models. So, there's certain applications

where people want the best, latest,

greatest model with more security, more

testing, someone you can sue, someone

you can call with customer service

complaints. They'll probably do a better

job of hiring some of the people in this

room to figure out how to monetize it

through advertising.

But, you have now have, essentially, I

would argue

that AI,

I mean, on a volume level, that China

has already won. And it's not a race to

see who has the smartest model. It's a

race to see who can put the most AI in

the most people's hands. And right now,

right now, that's China.

>> And the backlash to data centers will be

part of that. They'll be able to do

They'll be able to do more compute

there. They'll be able to get it to more

people.

Um and the backlash to data centers is

these companies' own fault for the way

they behaved. Even if some of them, you

know, I ran into the mayor of Lansing,

Michigan who had a great deal from one

of these companies, and the citizens

just didn't want it anyway cuz they hate

them. Like that I keep which I keep

telling them. I don't think they like me

saying that, but they do. People hate

them. Um All right, let's go on a quick

break. When we come back, we'll talk

about France banning social media for

kids under 15.

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>> France has banned social media for

children under 15. It's the first

country in the EU to pass a blanket ban,

and the bill also bans the use of mobile

phones in high schools. Last year,

Australia banned children under 16 from

having social media accounts, and the

ban is failing to keep teens off the

platforms.

Um

This is This is a

worldwide trend, and it it will be

coming here at some point and relatively

soon. And I suspect the social media

companies, some of them are going to get

on board with it.

>> Yeah, look, we we've been talking about

this for a long time. We're going to

We're going to look back on this era, I

think, and regret and commit a quality.

We're going to regret

Citizens United, money overrunning

Washington, but I generally believe our

biggest regret for parents is we're

going to look back and think, "How did

we let this happen to our kids?"

I think that I just don't see any any

piece of research

any rational argument for why any of our

children should ever be on social media

under the age of 16.

I mean, just some Just imagine

being that age, just as you're thinking

about social capital, your sense of

self, you're physically awkward,

you're you know, you're you're growing

too fast, you have weird skin, you're

you're being evaluated, you're starting

to you know, recognize your own sexual

self and what's attractive and not

attractive. I mean, you're just so

[ __ ] insecure, right? Remember that?

>> No.

>> No?

Well, the rest of us. And then and then

the high school cafeteria is following

you around 24/7.

And I think social media is really

damaging to young men because they get

radicalized and they sequester from the

relationships. I think it's especially

hard

on teenage girls though because boys

bully physically and verbally, girls

bully relationally. And we put these

nuclear weapons in their hands called

smartphones.

And I think in high school, I just think

the level the expectations on

aesthetics, the the unreal memetic

benchmark that teen girls are supposed

to live up to, the bullying, the it just

it's like a giant eating disorder

waiting to happen.

>> Or it's a distraction in school where

you aren't paying attention to teachers,

you're watching some latest dance video.

>> Most Yeah, but most schools even before

if they don't ban phones, they only use

them in class.

>> Correct. But But I think you the use of

them creates a distraction and a lack of

and this including the chatbots that are

now very popular among young people.

>> But what a lot of people their initial

argument was ridiculous [ __ ] like,

"Well, 15-year-olds have first amendment

rights and they're

they're socializing and

there's no

And then they went to, "Well, it's bad

parenting."

And anyone who thinks keeping your kid

off your phone is about parenting

doesn't have kids.

Because it unless there's a collective

ban, the research my colleague Adam

Alter did at NYU was that what they

found is that unless you ban it all for

all teenagers

>> the kids whose parents take it away are

more depressed cuz they're ostracized

and isolated from everybody else. So,

unless it's a collective universal ban,

it doesn't work. But, this is just this

is literally a no-brainer. This is, in

my opinion, one of the most It's got

bipartisan support.

All the research in the world showing

there's just very little we give up when

we don't let our 15-year-old daughters

and sons on social media.

Um another colleague, Jonathan Haidt, I

think some real real good work. I think

this is going to sweep over Europe.

>> Absolutely. It's a question of when it's

going to sweep here in this country,

which we'll wait and see. I I do think

the social media companies are suddenly

starting

The only reason I realized that is

suddenly they're calling me, which they

don't speak to me ever. And now they're

like, "Hey girl." I'm getting a lot of

hey girls from all these companies.

>> You speak to all the time. Didn't you

just I thought you talked to someone

today that

>> I did, but I'm just saying I'm just

saying they're hey girling me recently.

I just But, it's not But, they haven't

in a long time, which is interesting.

Which is an interesting thing is like,

"We know we have a problem." I'm like,

you know, no [ __ ] Sherlock. Um in any

case, moving along, speaking of which,

this is makes me laugh. The Daily Show

is taking on micro dramas. Comedy

Central announced a show it will produce

the first of its genre, a serialized

soap opera shot vertically designed for

phones. Uh the title will be Two

Billionaires Fight to Dominate the

Country and My Heart. The series follows

follows Alanka, a daughter of an aging

and sleepy president, two moguls, Egon

Husk and Jiff Davos, will compete to

build an AI president to run the

country. Uh

I feel good about this. I feel great

about this. If they did a micro drama

about your life, what would it be

called?

>> Sia's.

>> Okay.

I love that they're doing this. I think

they've done I think that

>> Doesn't this feel like everyone should

come here like when they're divorced? I

think my third wife is here. So, my next

ex-wife is somewhere in this crowd.

>> [laughter]

>> I'm not going to say a word about that.

Um

I'm going to move on. I'm moving on very

quickly. Tesla earnings just came out

with the company reporting weaker than

expected numbers for Q4 even as revenue

rose to 28 billion for up 26% from last

year. The company is citing a hit from

lower vehicle prices despite increased

auto sales. Tesla also shares jumped in

operating expenses and CapEx as it pours

money into robo taxis and robots, but

it's part of Elon Musk's master plan.

He's calling it a massive CapEx year

that will yield quote maybe the best

CapEx returns that we've ever seen. But

thoughts on Tesla? He's going to fold it

into SpaceX, which is by the way at $115

a share. That's heading down.

>> I don't know actually I don't know if

he's going to be able to now if it keeps

going down, but

Tesla's doing exactly what it's supposed

to be doing. It's an automobile company

that's reaching scale and it's no longer

as differentiated cuz other entrants

have entered the market and as a result

you see margin compression cuz the only

way they can maintain their share is to

lower prices.

And to their credit they they their

vehicle sales were up dramatically.

>> Yeah.

>> But in order to

>> the cyber truck. They sold 7,000 3,000

which were total disasters.

>> dead on arrival. So but they are their

volumes were way up, but their margins

are being compressed and that's what

you're going to see every quarter. What

I think the analog to the previous story

we're talking about is the same thing's

going to happen in AI. There's going to

be more AI. The same thing China did the

same thing with

>> EVs.

>> Did the same thing with batteries. It

did the same thing with shipbuilding.

And that is what we forget about in

business is we're so in love with the

innovator. We think the key to

shareholder value is to build the best

model. It's not. It's to put the model

in as many people's hands as possible.

The fastest zero to a billion dollar

retailer was Old Navy. That did not have

the coolest fashion. It offered 80% of

Gap for 50% of the price, which is the

entire strategy of China. And what what

Tesla's doing right now is they're being

forced to lower the prices because BYD

can come in with 80% of a Tesla for 50%

of the price. But and circling back,

they're going to do the same thing with

AI.

The majority of us or a lot of us,

especially in startups or with CFOs who

are very, very disciplined, are going to

say

>> That's enough.

>> If you can get 80% of Anthropic with

Deep Seek or Kimmy or whatever it is

uh for 10% of the price, folks, the this

is the AI we're using. And that the same

thing is happening, the same pressure is

being put on Tesla.

>> happens to Tesla from your perspective?

Where does it go?

>> I think it's I think it's a great

company. I think it's a great car. It's

just it can't in no way

>> They need new cars.

>> Sure, that every automobile company has

that problem. But

the thing about Tesla, it's not that

it's not a great car company. It's not

that it's a great not got a great

product. But he's been trying to promise

something like robots or Did you realize

Do you know what the total number

of non-manned

or non I don't know what the politically

correct term is, non-personified,

someone in the seat

>> use man.

>> non-personed. There's 24 Teslas on the

road globally now that don't have a

person

>> taxi, right.

>> Right. I think I think Waymo's at 4 or

5,000.

>> Yes, they are.

>> But he will always say, "Here's the

robovan. Here's robots. I got a I got a

card up my sleeve to justify a valuation

of software valuation on a company that

wraps steel around an axle that is

typically a low-margin mature business.

So the Where does it go? It goes to the

same place. Great company, lot of cars.

They'll come up with new products and it

will trade, I think, at 70 to 80% less

than it's trading now on the stock

market.

>> and it doesn't get folded into SpaceX.

He keeps

>> stock keeps going down, it's going to be

very hard for him to say

"Now take on another problem." Or, "Now,

take on something that's not related." I

don't I don't know if he's going to be

able to do that if the stock continues

to crater.

>> Do you consider it's going to continue

to crater, SpaceX? It's 100 close to 114

today, I think. 15, maybe.

>> Yeah, so now it's only overvalued by

80%. I mean,

just look at the

>> Yeah.

>> the One of the One of the problems I

have as an investor is I always anchor

off of where it was.

So, I think a lot of people are going to

say, "Wow, it's cheap now." No, it's

not. It's This is a This is a company

worth

I think 1.4

Now, it's trading at a cheap cheap 70 to

80 times revenues?

I mean, it's just an it's just insane.

And it I don't know if you've been

watching this. It's literally going down

3 to 6% every day.

>> Every day.

>> Every day.

>> Every day. This is something that a very

good investor, George Noble, said it's a

$30 stock.

>> That's the the People are putting price

targets on it of between $30 and $60

except for the folks who underwrote it.

They took a lot of fees. They're

claiming They're claiming it's worth

between $200 and $300 a share.

>> Who do you believe?

>> I think it's a $30 stock.

>> Yeah.

>> Maybe.

>> Yeah.

>> I mean, it's basically Comcast in space,

which is a cool business. But, this You

want to talk about the most ridiculous

look over here as I stuff a rabbit into

a hat?

>> Yeah.

>> Data centers in space?

>> Yeah.

>> Have you ever been to a data center?

>> Yeah.

>> They're enormous concrete facilities. It

costs, I think, $75,000 per kilo to to

>> Yes. Most people who know about this

said it's impossible, actually.

>> It makes

>> But, now he's talking about putting um

quantum computers in on the moon. He did

that the other day.

>> To what end? Why do What would we do?

>> don't have earthquakes there. Uh You

can't have earthquakes. Quantum

computers don't work yet, but when they

do, we can't have earthquakes. And it's

colder.

I'm just telling you, that's his latest.

Actually, he has another latest. We'll

talk about it in a minute. All right,

Scott, one more quick break. We'll be

back for predictions and audience

questions.

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Uh okay, Scott. We're going to hear a

prediction. My prediction is that his

version, Elon right now is very upset at

Chris Nolan and the Odyssey. I know you

know that. It made $250 million this

week. It turned out woke Odyssey was

very much liked by the people. Um Elon's

still mad about it. He's still angry.

So, he's decided he's going to do an AI

version of the Odyssey that's

historically accurate.

Despite the fact that the Odyssey is

fiction.

>> [laughter]

>> It's a myth.

>> It's exactly. That's correct. It's

fiction.

It's fiction. Okay, but he's real mad

about it. So, I predict this movie is

not going to be very good.

>> I get it.

So, he just

put on display on the network a movie

called I think The Vigilante, which is

Armie Hammer, the guy who played the

Winklevii.

And it's about a guy who seeks revenge

on behalf of victims that were killed by

immigrant families. And a lot of people

felt like it was very Islamophobic.

And my view is I love what you said. You

don't like Chick-fil-A, don't eat at

Chick-fil-A. You think that's true?

Don't watch it. You don't want a

non-white woman playing Helen? All I

care about personally is that she's hot.

That's all I That's the only criteria.

You don't want a You don't want a

transgender man playing a warrior? Fine.

Then don't see it. But is it any more

fake than Tom Cruise is a straight

leading man?

>> Yeah.

>> [laughter]

>> On that note, what is your prediction?

And then we'll get to a question.

>> Uh I got a couple of predictions. One,

well, I made the prediction. You're

seeing the market and AI buy for Kade

and the German automobile high high

price, high margin companies that won't

be as relevant as the Japanese or the

low-cost manufacturers, which will be

Chinese AI. I think China quite frankly,

I hate to say it, on a certain level has

won AI. We just haven't woken up to that

yet.

>> agree.

>> And then two, you're about to see the

clip economy take over our TVs. I think

the biggest show on television

uh from Netflix or someone else is going

to be a 60-minute compilation of two and

three-minute

videos similar to what you see on Reels

or TikTok. I think that's about to wash

over the traditional streamers. You're

going to see

>> a big show many back in the day. Do you

remember Kids Say the Darndest Things or

Bloopers or

>> Or America's Funniest Home Videos.

>> Home Videos. That's what I had in mind

instead of that. Yeah. Those were that

all linked together. So, okay. All

right. So, with that, we'll open the

floor up for two audience questions.

>> I'm just curious for both of you, who is

sort of an under the radar creator right

now, whether it's a Substack writer or a

YouTuber or podcaster that you love, you

forward to your friends that but no one

we don't know and that you people are

going to hear about it for a year from

now that we'll all kind of know about in

a year from now.

>> What do you What do you watch?

>> Mine are weird. I like the Geo Hueso who

talks about military weaponry and

strategy. Um

uh I like Gary Economics. He's a total

populist economist. And and I follow I

follow boring weird stuff. I don't, you

know, I'm I'm the guy who watches World

War II in color. My favorite actor is

Hitler. I watch anything about war. Um

so, my creators are probably not ever

going to be that big.

>> Right.

That's really depressing. Um I I watch a

lot of the food ones. There's a guy and

I don't know his name and then he's he's

he screams a a and he grows ginger. Um

but he's this food uh food guy who does

he's very my son put me on to him and I

actually listen to what my kids listen

to cuz my my second son was very into

the guy who ended up doing back rooms

and had had tagged him for me on YouTube

to watch and was very familiar. People

should not be surprised that was so

popular. All the kids knew about it on

YouTube. Um so I tend to listen to what

my kids listen to like I I tend to watch

what they look at. Um but I think

there's just I all over the place

there's so many amazing ones and I think

I I happen to look at food ones um

and that's and this young young guy does

this most astonishing about growing

things and again my son put me on to him

cuz he he does a lot of gardens and

stuff like that. Um I'm trying to think

of anybody else.

>> I've got one more and I guess he's

technically a creator but I think we

have I think the George Carlin

George no one knew George Carlin was a

George Carlin of his generation till

after he died.

It's like right now I think we're you

never know you're in a golden age until

20 years later. I think we're in a

golden age in New York. I think New

York's incredible right now and we won't

recognize it until 20 or 30 years when

it's shitty again and everyone will go

remember in 2026.

I think the George Carlin of our age

right now is this British comedian named

Jimmy Carr

and I find him just so insightful and

funny and brutally honest. Um he's one

of my favorite creators that comes up in

my

>> Yeah and any of the comedy ones I watch

a lot.

>> Yeah I also like Rita Ora she's

basically a porn star.

>> Yeah I I listen to all who?

Who?

Who?

>> Rita Ora is that her name? And then she

just has my feet a lot I don't know why

I don't

>> Yeah. Yeah. So sorry we're not so sorry

we're not so good on the

>> He knows her.

>> All right one more.

>> That guy's like I said that I was like

uh-huh.

>> One more right right here right here

right here one more.

I'm sorry to cut it off I got to go back

to DC unfortunately and see what's going

on with the reflecting pool.

It's still broken.

>> Hey uh Scotty, uh Cara Swisher and Jason

Adelman from Brand Innovators. How are

you?

>> Hi.

>> Hi.

>> Uh so, my question is

not a funny question cuz I'm usually

funny guy, but which is who's the next

tech mogul no one's talking about but

you guys seem to always know who's who.

>> Huh, that's a good question. There's a

couple of really interesting um

oh god, this I'm I'm supposed to meet a

couple. Like I've been asking people for

some really innovative people doing uh

AI, um

but I'm I'm suddenly interested. I just

happen to be as I said with uh Jay J.B.

Pritzker about their new quantum

computing.

Uh they're putting a quantum computing

campus in Chicago on the site of U.S.

Steel where U.S. Steel had its factory,

which is kind of ironic and wonderful.

I'm super interested in quantum

computing right now for some reason. Um

you know, quantum computing people don't

think they think AI AI AI is everything.

Quantum computing is AI's

um

well-behaved and more important brother.

I don't you know, they're they're

siblings in some ways and there's

quantum AI and things like that, but I

think the ability to create these

quantum computers is really where the

real innovation is going to happen. And

so, I'm spending a lot of time trying to

figure out who's the big who are the big

names in that um

and uh

that's where I'm focused completely

almost like trying to figure it out

right now of who that is. And the other

thing I'm looking at a lot is

uh I've been doing a lot on crypto uh

crypto security

um and that is a big worry of mine. I

just had an interview with Nicole

Perlroth from the New York Times. She

was a former New York Times reporter,

but she now is a consulting firm at the

sort of the dangers we face with these

uh AI models and uh the offense defense

happening right now with all all kind

whether it's finance or pharmaceuticals

or your personal information.

Uh I think a lot of really

[clears throat] smart people I know are

very worried about it. So, I'm looking

for those companies that are sort of the

white hats in that area. Cuz there's a

whole lot of black hats in cybersecurity

right now in cyber attacks.

So.

>> I forgot in California when the sun goes

down it gets pretty cold here.

Um I'm shivering. Uh

So, it was so tech means technology.

Mogul I think means rich. So, I'm not

talking about who should be

who's going to be good for the world or

not good for the world. But when I think

of

someone who's going to

make

create potentially trillions of dollars

in shareholder value.

Uh I think probably is it Palmer Luckey

Anduril?

>> Yeah.

>> I think unfortunately

uh defense and defense tech where you

take some of the Silicon Valley ethos

and apply it to defense

and asymmetric uh weaponry as opposed to

these big platforms. I think that's just

going to create enormous amount of

shareholder value and wealth. And I

think Anduril's going to be probably the

IPO of 27. And then the other one, I

think the most

impressive or relevant technology right

now is not AI. I think it's GLP-1. And I

think the guy who actually could be a

long shot dark horse presidential

candidate is the CEO of um Eli Lilly in

Indiana, which is the most important

company in Indiana, which is you know,

not that impressive. But

>> of Eli Lilly? Long shot? Why?

>> Uh handsome, tall, Midwest, smart, rich.

>> Skinny.

>> Um yeah, he's he's just I think he

actually I think he or Doug McMillon are

actual viable candidates. I think

someone from business and you said this

and it's got me thinking that the

Democratic Party right now has got such

a terrible reputation that it might be

someone who comes in from outside. But

anyways, I think that um the CEO of Eli

Lilly whose name I'm blanking on the CEO

of Anduril, are next tech moguls.

>> Yeah, and the reason I mentioned quantum

computing because that's where the focus

is would be on healthcare. That's where

a lot of the the innovations are going

to happen with these computers, and

a lot of a lot of pharmaceutical

companies and others are part of this

effort, which is really impressive in

Chicago, actually.

To because we really are going to lose

an AI right now to China. I think Scott

is 100% right. I mean, I had some very

significant people say that to me in the

last 3 days.

Quantum computing is an area we should

be heavily investing in, and one of the

great tragedies of this era right now,

of all the many things that are

happening, is the cuts to research money

to universities,

where most much of this stuff happens.

These They're right now major

researchers in mRNA and in all manner of

really exciting stuff where the US is

ahead are moving to to France to

to Canada, and recently a Nobel Prize

winner is moving to China.

Like, it's really grotesque, and every

university president I meet has talked

about this in terms of and then they can

be slow, there can be bureaucracy, but

our university system is one of the

speaking of Scott being on the UC board

is one of the greatest assets of this

country, and and this systematic

obsession with DEI and and hurting

places like Harvard and everyone else

and litigating is such is going to be is

going to take decades to recover from.

And I've interviewed many scientists

that say this exact same thing. So, I

would

the efforts like what's happening in

Chicago and other things where

public-private partnerships where the

states have to make up the difference

are critical, but it's not going to

matter until the federal government gets

its, you know, stops with this endless

corruption and starts really focusing in

on the real race we're in, which is to

dominate um have a democratic AI and

which we're not in. We're We're not and

and that's a real worry for me.

Your thoughts?

>> Word, sister.

>> Word, sister. All right. In any case

>> way, UC system, 54 billion, 60% of the

revenue comes from hospitals.

>> Yeah. So, um and

>> Any anteaters in the house? UC Irvine?

Isn't that what we're close to?

>> Are they called anteaters?

>> The anteaters, yeah.

>> What? What do you mean, yeah?

>> [laughter]

>> It's kind of cool.

>> an anteater to be your

>> the banana slugs?

>> Oh my god.

Santa Cruz

>> Santa Cruz slugs. God. And suddenly he's

kicked off the board.

>> Okay. [laughter]

In any case

>> Any Any Trojans in the house? It's

Orange County. Woohoo!

>> What's a Trojan?

>> going to go to USC but my SATs were too

high.

>> [laughter]

>> Uh da da da.

>> In any case, um okay, Scott, that's the

show. We'll be back on Tuesday with more

Pivot.