A lot of silver flow to the US

pre-tariffs earlier in last year and you

see it going east now and I think that's

going to be the story for the next two

years. I think it's going to be a story

basically for until we have huge regime

shifts or we see some sort of radical

tightening in the US. I think there's a

real demand story as an investment

diversifier. Think about the

reallocation of all the strategic

investment, you know, portfolios as

being reallocated out of bonds and into

into metals. Today's episode is brought

to you by the Pict AI enhance

international equity ETF, ticker PQNT.

You'll hear more about their using AI to

enhance international equity returns

later in the show. For now, let's get

into it. Joined today by Alexander

Campbell, founder and CEO of Rose AI.

Alex, it is great to see you. Uh, in a

previous life, you were head of

commodities at Bridgewater, and that is

what I want to talk to you about today,

commodities, and in particular, silver.

You have been a massive bull on silver

for several years and almost a year ago

exactly. You published a piece called

the silver squeeze. Since then, silver

rose dramatically about well over 200%.

But in late January, it had an epic

correction, the biggest percentage crash

since 1980 for silver. And in dollar

terms, silver declined by more than the

price of silver had been for most of its

its history. Before we get into the epic

crash in silver that is somewhat ongoing

and your your view, can you describe

what motivated your bull thesis that you

had been developing over the past

several years? Why why did you get so

bullish?

>> So it actually starts with gold back in

18 more or less. So after I left

Bridgewater, I started a small fund

called Black Snow Capital. And the goal

of Black Snow Capital was to give people

convexity to kind of tail events. And

specifically the two events that I saw

that were kind of hitting the market.

One was super low interest rates. The

other one was the credit bubble in China

and the property bubble in China. And at

the time as a western investor, it was

very hard to get exposure to the banks

and the property companies. You can't

really trade the debt. The banks, a lot

of them are locked up. They have short

restrictions. And so I came up with a

framework or or a trade called gold in

China or double dollar gold which was

basically the notion that the Chinese

the PBOC had a choice which was fix the

banks and take deleveraging or print.

And to me, I saw the gold long short R&B

trade as kind of a headsy win tells you

lose type of framing of that because you

either have deleveraging pressure and

people worrying about the banks and

people fleeing to gold or you have a ton

of printing and the the you know the R&B

selling off quite a bit. And so we went

around and tried to sell this to people

and kind of explain how this was really

good portfolio diversification against a

lot of illquid stocks. They had a lot of

PE venture. You know, this is when the

Yale investment thesis was very popular

among institutions and everyone was

like, "No, we don't want to do publics.

We only want to do private anymore." And

I was like, "Guys, you're buying like

long liquid duration assets that are

progrowth at interest rates at zero.

It's like not a good idea." So that kind

of led me to have this gold position,

gold view for a long time. And then I

just started getting a little more into

silver over time by looking at um

basically was when the AI wave kind of

really hit and everyone started really

getting fattish about energy. um you

know used to be a commodity trader, used

to be an oil trader kind of and and

energy has always been an interesting

you know market to me and started just

noticing how much of the solar basically

solar build was silver intensive how so

much of the demand for silver was coming

from solar power and so you kind of had

this two themes that I liked hitting at

the same time which was one this kind of

capital flight out of China this kind of

need for hard assets you know there's

also the US fiscal thing, but also just

the notion that as opposed to gold where

most [clears throat] of the gold that's

bought is is sat on in coins or bars and

then it can hit the market again. You

know, we kind of destroy or or

effectively lock up silver for a lot of

time in these industrial materials. And

so, you know, I went and looked at the

demand supply balance, wrote that piece

last year saying, "Wait a second. um you

actually have this really nasty

combination of factors which is this

kind of secular bull somewhat price

insensitive alone totally price

insensitive demand coming out of these

solar panel manufacturers who it takes a

while to substitute to copper you had

this kind of investment demand and you

also had the notion that as opposed to a

lot of other commodities

75% of silver production is inelastic it

comes from making copper or gold or tin

or a bunch of other stuff and you know

classic inelastic demand in elastic

supply you get these squeezes. And so

that's kind of what we saw. And so, you

know, was [clears throat] super bullish

at 25, you know, I like to say,

dangerously bullish at 40, moderately

bullish at 80, uh, and then toe in the

water bullish, although a little still

too bullish towards the end of last

month, but, uh, but but that's kind of

the origin story of the trade. So the

demand for silver is both monetary. We

could call that speculative monetary

speculative as part one and part two is

industrial whereas the demand for gold

is primarily monetary or or speculative.

And that is what it makes it so

interesting. That's on the demand side.

On the supply side as you said only 25

30% of silver is mined from silver

primary mines. The rest 75 or 70 to 75%

of it is mined from gold from mines

where the primary metal is zinc or lead

or copper or gold. And as such, you

know, the price of silver could surge

and a gold miner or a copper miner

wouldn't necessarily be like, let's mine

as much as possible because they're

they're they're responding to the price

of gold, to the price of copper. the the

monetary and speculative element that

that is very very hard to pin down in

terms of the numbers. Tell us about the

industrial. [clears throat]

Tell us just how big is the shortage?

What we are what on our in our fifth or

fourth consecutive

>> deficit in terms of silver and where are

the who are the industrial what are the

industrial you know heights of industry

that are demanding so much silver? What

was it historically you know in terms of

photography? How has it evolved? Tell

tell us the journey.

>> Yeah. So a lot of it goes into

electronics. a lot of it is component

pieces and then as you kind of pointed

out historically a lot of it went into

solar photography which obviously has

been going down and so I think that's

part of what kind of hid this this

incredible rapid rise in the solar

demand because you if you just look at

it as industrial it almost stayed a

little bit flat or went up a bit but

when you look at that one you know that

that one component of solar it's now I

think 30% of mine production and you

know when you think about supply a lot

of it's recycled so the other trade I

thought was interesting was like buying

recycling companies or recycling you

know manufacturers essentially

processing units because if you get the

high prices which we're getting right

you would expect people to turn in their

jewelry turn in their stuff and then it

turns in back into boolean and then goes

back into the system so that was kind of

an interesting machine for me and you

know the other thing that kind of I

think people don't realize is just how

disconnected

the the day-to-day market for silver is

with you know these

things that they are investing in on the

software for AI's hyperscaler side

because when you hear about you know I

don't even know the number sometimes but

like one gigawatty data center you know

like 100 whatever and you hear about

things like Dyson spheres right okay so

everyone likes to talk about Dyson

spheres go into chachi go to claude go

into gemini go to Grock or whatever and

just ask how much silver would be

required to make a Dyson sphere and it's

10,000 years of supply or something like

that so yeah it's like we're not talking

like a little bit more we're talking

like more silver than has ever been made

in the history of humanity because these

are gigantic systems okay So if Elon

gets his way, this is not just a silver

grows by another 10% a year. It's like

we need a lot more silver. Now obviously

just like we're seeing some of that

production will get re reallocated to

copper. And obviously if we have a down

market or you know a lot of tightness,

you'll see less solar build and less

rapid solar build. And obviously if the

data centers had this like air gap which

I kind of see coming where revenues

aren't hitting as fast as the capex

requirements you could see a slow in

that energy demand but on a 10 20-year

basis if you think which I think is

reasonable that the base load energy is

going to be nuclear n gas and solar you

know it's it's you end up with these

really interesting economics again these

economics are different at 100 than they

are at 25 or whatever but if you

actually did the math and I did it in a

piece called like silver is money again

to kind of make the illusion to the fact

that you know when you have boolean now

you basically pay someone to store it

you know security deposit box like you

here's my key or whatever but if you

think about it from a state level or

like an institutional level if you're if

you have very long duration

[clears throat]

and you're willing to hold that silver

for 10 to 20 years you can stick it in a

solar panel and it generates a yield

so just like in the 1700s or the 1500s

or back in the history of banking and

pre fiat your gold and silver would

earned carry it was posit positive carry

as an asset. The fact that you can stick

it in something and then generate income

and then eventually melt it down and get

it back to me was a was a quasi positive

yield that was like not being priced in

the market as well.

>> So, Alex, we've had five consecutive

years of deficits in 2026 probably going

to be a deficit as well. And I'm I'm

looking the Silver Institute has some

great charts on this. They had an

interim November report and they also

had an annual report that about 20 that

that should be coming out in a few

months. But basically the demand

you know was was a lot of photography

and that has since faded and it's now as

you said a lot of electrical components

a lot of silver and AI I've asked Gemini

that basically the silver center pace

the the the silver that goes into data

centers and chips particularly is

roughly 2% of annual production so it's

not huge but it definitely is a a very

rapidly growing thing and I I think also

just the the supply is is you know 2025

the supply was lower than it was 10

years ago. The supply hasn't grown in 10

years and demand has grown a lot and the

part of demand that has grown is

industrial demand and there was a lot of

speculative fervor in you know the the

late 2000s and early 2010s that has

dissipated with the the you know the

popping of the precious metal bubble or

commodity bubble of you know that in

popped in 2011 or 2014 depending on what

commodity you're talking about and

there's just there's just not enough

silver is is what is that what drove the

bull market of silver from 20 to $115.

How much of it was the industrial

demand? How much of it was actual

speculation as we're seeing now? There

was, you know, a lot of leverage coming

out of China and some a lot more retail

demand than certainly I had imagined one

one year, sorry, one week ago.

>> When we say speculative demand, I think

we are coming at it from a very western

perspective. Okay? where you or I we

live in the west. We live in what I call

the world of dollars and we have a

tremendous amount of variety in the

interesting

safe you know positive carry or whatever

dollar assets that we can invest in. And

what I think that most western investors

and you see this on in the in the

discussion

is I I think a lot of westerners have

frankly like an ego problem really

understanding that on a dollar fordoll

basis it is not really their market

anymore. So most of the demand is going

not most of it but the biggest consumer

is now China just like in a lot of other

commodities and from an industrial

perspective and from this investment

perspective and also if you were a

Chinese household or a Chinese corporate

or a Chinese investment firm your saving

options are you know imagine they are

12th as good as what we have over here

the stock market has not made real

appreciable gains gains outside of stock

issuance for the past 10 years. The

banks, pardon my, you know,

colloquialisms are hosed. The banks are

hosed. Okay, you have about five to six

trillion of dead property company debt.

Five to six trillion. Okay, remember

Everrand? They still haven't fixed

Everrand.

>> Trillion dollars. So in terms of that's

35 trillion yuan or something.

>> Yeah. Yeah. So you have Yeah. Sorry.

I'll try to talk in dollars. I I get so

confused and we go back and forth. I

>> no no no it's good it's good that you

did it in dollars we have far more

viewers in the west than you do in China

so it's good

>> and this is the issue right it's it's

that translation and you see it today

even with we'll talk about it later but

this premium discussion and the back and

forth and how much is it in India and

how this cognitive work means that we

kind of just remove it from our head

there's now twice as much money in China

as there is in America twice as much M2

I'm talking about so there's a bunch of

other ways to count money but and that's

happened basically in the last 10 years.

Now, imagine you're one of those people

with twice as much money, right? And

you're looking around and you know your

local bank is hiding, you know, the

system's hiding trillions of dollars of

losses, but maybe your local bank is

insolvent and hiding billions of dollars

of losses. You're looking at a stock

market that is feels kind of Ponzi and

there's some cool stuff in it, but every

time it goes up, it gets cr You know,

that kind of thing. and you just put a

bunch of your wealth over the past two

decades in property because that was

seen as the safe responsible asset and

you can't get out of your property and

and then add capital controls, right?

You can't invest in a lot of these same

assets that we can invest in. So the the

risk return profile, the mobility of it

is just radically more attractive if you

or I were in one of those or India even

which is not as restrictive but still

has a lot of crappy banking system and

you know as many good saving options

that it starts to make a lot more sense

as a thing that you're willing to

tolerate a 30% up 30% down year which a

western investor who's comparing that to

stocks would never accept and so I think

that's driving a lot of what we see

right now which is this kind of pushpull

yanking back and forth. A lot of silver

flow to the US pre-tariffs earlier in

last year and you see it going east now

and I think that's going to be the story

for the next two years. I think it's

going be a story basically for until we

have huge regime shifts or we see some

sort of radical tightening in the US. So

that that's not to be too, you know, too

too kind of glib to your question, but

but I think it's I think there's a real

demand story as an investment

diversifier. And I think if you go back

and look against where metals were as an

inflation hedge for people back in the

80s and 70s, it was just a much higher

percentage of people's portfolio. And so

you can call it speculative and

obviously we saw a speculative boom bust

that we just had. But you can also think

about the reallocation of all the

strategic investment, you know,

portfolios as being reallocated out of

bonds and into into metals. And so I I

think that that's kind of the the the

perspective people should take on this

thing. I don't think you should be

trying to chase 20% a month. You know, I

tried to be a little bit cautious about

that and say, hey, you were probably

going to get a draw down along the way.

Not to not to say I was exactly right on

this or that, but obviously in the last

couple of weeks, you had a you had, you

know, a lot of leverage in the system. I

think you also had a lot of short gamma,

which we can talk about, which is why it

crawled up really fast and then has

puked.

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Now, back to the show. Alex to to me the

industrial demand from China the

industrial demand for solar other things

was very evident you could see it in the

charts there was data on that when I

looked at the

I again I'm going to call it speculative

or monetary demand for silver

>> in India as well as China I was not

really seeing it in the data you know

for there's a chart showing that retail

investment in silver in 2025 was

actually lower than it was in 2013 2014

and 2015 And then in China as well, like

this this not the Shanghai premium, but

this the one ETF of silver that's

trading at at 40% premium. Like in terms

of the size of that, that's 150th the

size of SLV, the biggest Western ETF. So

I hadn't been seeing this huge

speculative demand from China. But maybe

that's my misreading. Maybe I was

looking at the wrong things. Maybe I

wasn't looking at the the Shanghai

volumes. you know, suddenly we had this

30% crash in one day where again the

price of silver fell by more in dollar

terms than the price of silver has been

before 2025. It's it's kind of crazy.

And then suddenly you see all these

Bloomberg stories about, you know, Mrs.

Lee who's a 26-year-old nursing nurse in

China and she lost 1.4 million yuan, you

know, trading gold and silver. So

basically, you know, $200,000, a4

million dollars, let's call it. and you

know I'm like whoa China I thought that

the GDP per capita was like 15 or 20,000

this that's a that's a 10x loss that's

pretty big so just tell us about the

scale of the speculation and when I call

it speculation I'm you know there's no

judgment here I'm not I'm yeah I'm very

aware that you know what you said is is

very true of

>> certainly in the Chinese assets dour of

choice over the past 10 years real

estate and equities primarily real

estate have not performed well and and

also equities so I get that and also

because the dollar is so strong. You see

that particularly in the like the

Japanese yen and the Indian rupee.

Basically, a lot of countries didn't

even really experience the precious

metal bare market that started in 2011

or 2012 because their currencies went

down

>> almost as much against the dollar as

gold and silver went against the dollar.

So basically there was no bull market

like in China in a lot of countries

there's been a precious metals bull

market that's lasted for 50 years.

>> Exactly. That's why I say gold in China,

gold in India because as as you know, if

you look at 2008, I was trading 2008 and

I was, you know, in the market a little

bit then. Golden dollars fell during the

liquidation squeeze because the dollar

ripped. And so if you're sitting there

and you're paying dollars to get your

gold, you know, it looks bad, but if

you're in euros or yen or, you know,

heaven forbid the, you know, emerging

markets, it was a great asset. And so,

you know, I think I I'm not

the I think there's a lot of ambiguity

about where the actual pots of demand

and supply are or mostly demand. Like I

know there's a lot of wealth products

that are linked to gold and silver. I

think that you probably see some of that

leakage into SLV and those other kind of

western assets when they get their money

out and they kind of, you know, go go

through there. And I wouldn't be

surprised if some of the local banks

also were playing the in our futures

markets as well. So you know the tell

for me there's this kind of premium that

everybody talks about was that it's

about the change in that that price not

the level because there's this banding

about of oh is the VAT included is it

not

>> yeah tell tell us what you're talking

about the Shanghai premium which is the

price of silver in Shanghai relative to

the US explain what that is was it

trading at a premium and also if you

adjust the value added tax which is

>> yes 10% % 12% and also some people pay

the tax some people are exempt explain

it explain

>> yeah so I'm going to I'll give you an

analogy first and then we'll go because

[clears throat] it's a it's a microcosm

of a phenomenon in April 2020 2020 you

were familiar with what happened to the

price of oil in in America right it went

to negative 37 okay Brent oil in Europe

did not go to negative 37 and if you ask

you know a person on the street what is

the price of oil they're going to give

you some price you know Maybe they'll

give you their local gasoline price. But

the reality is that as opposed to purely

paper markets, okay, commodities have

this interesting thing where at the end

of the day, you owe someone some stuff.

And to the degree that that stuff is not

100% interchangeable, the Brent that

comes out of the ground in the North Sea

is not just like the Brent that comes

out the WTI that comes out of the ground

in Texas or whatever. When we talk about

the price of oil or the market for oil,

we're actually talking about the market

and the price of a basket of commodities

which are reflective of a thing that

doesn't exist. There is no pure price of

oil, right? There is the price of this

oil here and this oil here. And if

you're familiar with futures markets,

you get this pretty intuitively because

the futures markets have a curve, right?

There's oil tomorrow, there's early oil

the next day, there's oil in 10 years,

you know, etc., etc., on and on and on.

So when you think about these big

trading houses, you might have hear

about, you know, Trafigura, Glen Core,

this kind of thing, these guys make

money by understanding all these

different markets and physically not

only playing in the speculative side,

but moving things around to where it

needs to go in order to get those, you

know, prices more in line or more out of

line or whatever they're doing, right?

And we look at things like, you know,

Google stock. And if you're trying to

buy Google stock as a European and you

find some sort of, you know, local

listed, it wouldn't be an ADR, but an

ADR type thing where it's a listed on

their exchange, but it's denominated in

euros, you're just getting Google stock

plus the currency and maybe some

volatility in the local conditions. When

you talk about silver in New York and

silver in Shanghai, they're not even the

same kind of boolean. you got to kind of

melt it down and turn into something

else and then send it over.

So that's the first step is just to

realize that there is a lag between

those phenomena and you can tell by

looking at the curve in London

>> where you know the the curve in the US

futures curve is is what we call

contango

>> right the curve in Shanghai is in

contango which means that

>> sorry wait the US curve is in

backwardation right? No.

>> Okay. Okay. So, the US CME, the US curve

and the Chinese curve are both in

contango.

>> Yes. But London is in backwardation.

>> Okay. Okay.

>> Which is crazy. And what that's telling

you is that there's a lot of demand and

I think it's Asian demand to some degree

and it's also SLV but are hitting the

London market and sucking up physical

supply

and then because the inventory to price

mechanisms are being kept in line by

local speculators or local traders

basically in comx and in Shanghai those

curves look relatively stable. Now I

have a trade on that that the that

eventually the US inventories might get

a little bit strained because of this

flow. But what you saw now to go back to

the actual premium okay and I know I'm

kind of jumping around here but was that

it's not a stable thing. It moves around

a ton. Okay. And over the past two

months during this rise when you do the

conversion of you know R&B per kilogram

to dollars per troy ounce you saw a

rapid appreciation of the local price of

silver in Shanghai versus the US. Okay.

Now what ended up happening is a lot of

people started quoting that thing as a

spot in time

representation and saying oh Shanghai is

20% more expensive. Shanghai is 10 more.

This thing moves like 3% a day, 4% a day

sometimes. It moves a ton. I have a

bunch ton of charts on this that that

are kind of I post a bunch. But the

other side is that for retail investors,

I believe if they suck the actual

physical out of the Shanghai exchange,

they pay this VAT tax. So there's a lot

of ambiguity as to whether or not that

premium includes the VAT, right? And if

you're an indust I looked this up in

Gemini, but if if you're an industrial

producer and you import the metal under

certain conditions, you can be exempt

from the VAT tax. So some people on the

Shanghai exchange are paying the VAT,

some people are not paying the VAT.

>> Exactly. And so now you go, whoa, wait a

second.

>> Even the same commodity on the same

market is not the same thing for

depending on who buys it, which is super

confusing and super frustrating. And

then you know this last piece which is

you know they don't have the same market

hours as us. Okay. So sometimes their

market's closed and our market's selling

off and the premium looks like it's

going up. Last couple days they've hit

limit down because they have circuit

breakers and our market has sold off.

And so people go, "Oh, the premium's 40,

the premium's 50." That's obviously

ridiculous. That's a classic, you know,

kind of trap of just understanding

market hours and that kind of thing. But

the kind of critical point is that a lot

of the ambiguity, a lot of the

volatility, aside from the short and the

leverage, which is probably 80% of it,

let's say 20% of it though, is just

people being confused. They don't have

time to understand this. So they see a

tweet that says the premium's 40. And

they go out and they buy it and they see

someone saying, "Hey, you're an idiot.

This has the VAT tax, the premium's

negative." Then they sell it. And and I

think that you also see like this

getting weaponized a little bit by both

sides, obviously, where the shorts are

really pushing on how dumb the longs

are. the longs are talking about the

premium. I mean this is why if you look

at the V markets or the the option

markets things trading 130 vol 100 it's

trading at basically 10% moves a day for

the next couple of weeks which obviously

is not sustainable but do you really

want to go and sell options on something

that moves 30% a day like tomorrow?

Probably not. And so that's why we think

we're going to see chop for a little

while and if you can't take a five 10%

draw down you should not be in that

market. Alex,

h so how much of this de Asian demand

was speculative versus industrial?

>> Well, remember like the

the deficit that we went into as of last

year, right, was indust was mostly

industrial. There is a there was

investment demand, right? I think maybe

a 100 million of investment demand, you

know, 20 and the deficit was 250 or

something like that. And then you have

to add in that like solar panel demand

is probably growing into the middle of

last year. But I mean I don't have the

exact number for exactly how much.

That's kind of the problem, right? The

problem in trying to track these markets

is you never have exact numbers. What

you can see is that the number of shares

outstanding for SLV was falling last

week.

>> Yes.

>> So it wasn't going up. So it wasn't I

mean people had gone into it but there's

actually less shares outstanding for SLV

higher [clears throat] price. So bigger

market cap last week than there was back

in 2011 or whatever. So again like it's

it's the kind of thing where all these

things are happening at once and I think

a lot of the demand was actually people

just covering their short calls. I think

a lot of people went out there and

bought calls which are a form of

leverage and they don't hedge the delta

on their call.

>> Calls on SLV or calls on the CME

futures.

>> Both. Okay.

>> Both. I mean mostly SLV because that's

where retail tends to play. But you know

some institutions go out there and they

buy calls in the futures right you think

about a pension fund or or a bank or

something like that and they're going to

hedge that delta

>> and you know when you see even on the

way up it was more volatile than you

would think up 4% a 5% usually it's like

a two and a half wall asset or something

like that two and a half% a year a day

asset. What that means is that you have

people who have to hedge their call

options and they don't care that the

price is up. They have to buy. They have

to buy. They have to buy. You're talking

about the market makers have to hedge.

>> Yes.

>> Yes. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. So the people who

are selling the calls to the people who

are buying as price goes up. Yep. Delta

hedge.

>> And so you have these people who are

short calls and they do not want that

exposure in terms of the direction of

the price. They they're they're trading

implied versus realized wall. They're

trading, you know, option premium. So

when the price goes up, they have to buy

mechanically. And so that was happening.

That was part of the reason why January

was up. January was up. January was up.

January was up. And that's also why on

the way down

the opposite happens because when the

price goes down they are overhedged and

they need to sell. They need to sell.

They need to sell. And this happened in

October too on the option expiry in a

much less size. It was like a 4% move or

something like that where it had been

moving at one or two% a day and on the

Friday of expiry boom it goes down four

or five% like in in a kind of a rock.

And so you have these kind of short fall

dynamics which lead to mechanical buying

on the way up and mechanical selling on

the way down. And where does that where

does that leave us here today, Alex? How

what is what is your outlook on silver

right now? What was your outlook on

Thursday? As I'm sure, you know, you

experienced a a hyper version of what I

experienced of, oh my god, it's actually

happening. Like this has gone way better

than I expected. And then obviously, you

know, we we had an epic correction. How

have your views changed over the past,

let's call it five days. And what are

they now? Yeah, I went into Thursday

long copper, long gold, long silver. I

took off most of my silver delta. I

still had a bunch of options that were

basically flat delta, but I had a bunch

of gold. What that meant was

as the price started falling off on

Friday, I kind of was short a bit of

downside volatility and and long upside

volatility. And so I ended up being a

little bit long going into Friday. And

then I basically doubled on the end of

Friday. So kind of went reasonably long

Friday night into the close with the

thinking that let's look to see what

happens Monday and then last night the

price action was so terrible I cut my

copper and I flattened most of my delta.

So I am still a little bit long but way

less long than I was and I'm going to

kind of wait and let this play itself

out. You know 80 is still a pretty good

price if you're b if you bought in at 20

or whatever. So you're not you're not

too bad with that. I think there's a lot

But you did to be clear.

>> Yeah. I think there's a lot of people

though and and what's interesting about

this market is it's become almost like

this like weird political hockey stick

where you know everyone in Twitter like

loves to be right. They love to ah

here's how smart I am. Here's how smart

I am. But you know this is a short vall

market. We're going to have you're going

to have plenty of times to say you

bought and have it go up and plenty

times to sell and see it goes down. And

I think that that's really the the

perspective you want to have, which is

if you're not capable of handling this

volatility, like you pro you should

reduce your exposure, which is what I'm

basically doing because I'm like, ah,

taking the gains and letting this thing

shake itself out. But I'm actually a

little more worried about equities right

now because I think that that this kind

of air pocket in stocks looks like it's

coming to me. And so I most of my risk

right now is short stocks and I'm, you

know, a little bit long, kind of

flattish, still have some upside options

and that kind of stuff because I don't I

don't want to, you know, pay the

transaction costs on those. But I'm

mostly in wait and see mode right now.

>> Yeah. Just I mean you've you definitely

had a good handle not just of the silver

market but the overall market. I'm

reading a piece from September 21st of

2025 last year. You were the piece was

called why I'm 125% net long and

sleeping fine. You were long 78% silver,

long 46% gold, long 5% miners royalties,

long 23% tech and AI, short 8% delta via

S&P puts, and you were short 40% high

yield credit, so net 124% long.

Obviously, the stocks, silver, gold has

performed extremely well. Why are you

bearish about stocks right now? You tal

you talked about an air pocket.

>> Yeah. So one is if we're going to see

any ddollarization,

I think people are way too focused on

the dollar itself and they should be

more focused on US assets. Foreigners, I

know Europe especially who's might be

spooked by Trump hold a ton of MAG7, a

ton of S&P, right? There's been this

like three, four year trade where

everyone just gobbles up S&P and to me

like if people are going to reduce their

US exposure, that's going to be one of

the big mechanisms that they do it.

That's how they get out of dollars.

Okay, they have way more dollars in

stocks than they do in like dollar

futures or whatever. So, that's like one

kind of secular thing. The other thing

is

I did a bit of math and I'm writing

about this later, but I think the AI

acceleration is real. I'm still long the

memory players. I'm, you know, worried

about the positioning in the market

right now because it seems pretty

fattish, but I'm still long the

hardware. But if you look at what's

happening in US software, you see, you

know, these kind of real sharp declines

over the past couple of weeks. And

that's because one, like if you're using

cloud code, it can probably write the

software that you're usually paying all

this money for, but two, like what

happened to Microsoft last week is that

people are starting to be able to do the

math of just wait, all the money that

was going into buybacks is now going

into capex. So that's a demand that's

gone for the shares. two, this like

agent revolution, which I believe is

coming, is not here today. You have all

these hackers who are making a lot of

noise, you know, molt book, all this

stuff. They buy a Mac Mini, they kind of

make a thing that that talks to them all

the time and they give it their credit

card information. Like big enterprise,

big banks, big, you know, that kind of

thing are so far from actually deploying

AI in that way. There's [clears throat]

so much regulatory compliance,

logistics, security, ops, bureaucracy

resistance that needs to happen that my

shortest timeline for that takeoff is

like end of Q2.

Okay? So that means you're still going

to see decent demand into OpenAI and

claude and that kind of stuff where you

know maybe their private stocks will

keep going up. But if you're talking

about the big players, I just see a

world where the cash flow needs that are

being promised to make these data

centers which again most of the time

they need the big data center not to

service inference as it's called but to

build a bigger model to build a better

mousetrap. kind of race to the top. I

need the biggest model. I need 10

trillion parameter model, right? You

need a gigantic data center to do that.

But if you look at the actual capacity

utilization of inference once they turn

that data center into serving you a

query, it's still a lot of time spent

down. A lot of these chips are not being

used. It's just people are buying the

chips because they want to make their

own models and they want to do training.

And so to me, that is the air gap.

That's the air pocket that we're kind of

potentially approaching.

>> That's interesting. Alex, what has your

view been on the companies that are

involved with silver? The mining

companies

that mine silver and also the royalty

and streaming companies that basically

buy little pieces of the action and o

over time tend to be a little bit less

risky than the miners. You know, a

company that is the company that comes

to mind would be wheat and precious

metals which I which I actually am

invested in. But yeah, the comp the

silver companies the and precious metal

companies as opposed to the actual

physical metal.

>> Yeah. So again, I try not to speculate

too much on individual stocks for for

for reasons, but I' I've been long a lot

of these companies like in the baskets

and you know, they underperform the

metal on the way up. But I think that

makes some sense actually. People kind

of go crazy over like the gap between

those things because again, if you're if

you're a commodities investor, you know

that the curve can go very inverted. the

spot can go super high, but the 10-year

forward doesn't move as much. And if

you're if you're buying an equity in a

mining company, they don't sell all of

their silver in the next five minutes,

right? They have 10 years of supply,

that kind of thing. And so I I kind of

like these. I I like mining companies. I

like I think there's I think there's a

lot of value in them still, but I'm not

going to speculate too much on

individual ones if that's okay.

>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, definitely. No, no

particular ones, but overall you like

silver miner beta as well as silver and

and has that ratio changed of a month

ago. Of a month ago, you were like, I

only want silver, no miners. Whereas

now, you're a little bit more

open-minded or tell us about that.

>> So, two years ago when people would ask

me this question, I'd say I think kind

of maybe a little bit naively, I said,

don't even buy the miners. Because what

people were doing was they buy miners

because they want leverage, right?

They're like the price goes up 10% but

if I buy a stock that is a mining

company and it kind of gets over its

break even I get a lot of convexity and

that's true to some extent and we've

seen that in the prices. So it's if you

want leverage get your leverage through

futures get your leverage through

options. I think

over the past couple of months

again the the the price has risen so

much that like the ratio of silver to

like the ETF for the silver you know

producers is like at its like all-time

low or whatever. And so I've kind of

reallocated relatively a little bit more

into those mining companies even though

the point I made about the curve kind of

getting inverted.

>> And what are you going to be watching

with silver over the next weeks, next

months? Like for me, I just know you

know I need this report. You probably

don't need this report. You you have

this the source the date yourself. But

like the an annual silver survey report,

world silver report is really good. I

think that comes out in like late Q1,

early Q2. So that's something I'll be

watching. What are you going to be

watching in terms of the data?

>> One of the biggest tells that I didn't

pay enough attention to and should have

been a real I think wake up on just a

little bit of what was going on the

market was the very front end of the

London futures curve. So if you do on

Bloomberg you do X AG CCRV you can see

the curve shape and you had this really

steep backwardation curve about a month

ago and then over as it kind of went

past 80 to about 100 you started seeing

it kind of curve like this and so if

you're measuring backwardation in in

kind of the you know the middle of the

curve it still looks pretty backwardated

and still way more backwardated than

contango but the very front started to

go down a little bit and so that's

that's for me a big signal I will be

looking at the relative lot of prices in

China versus the US. I'll be looking at

inventories again like how fast can the

inventories move from one to the other.

I think it's good to look at v markets

to understand just how much demand is in

these option world and then also just I

like to look at what happens when China

opens up right every night. So I'm now

kind of running two trading days

unfortunately where you know at the at

the night I'm looking at China opening

up and I'm like okay what happened to

China? How do they react to us? Because

I put this in my last piece, but if you

just did the

overnight return versus the day return

over the past 10 years,

more than 100% of the return came

overnight for a lot of these

commodities, which again is an

indication that it's coming from Asia,

right? So the day would happen, it would

sell off, night would happen, China

would buy it up, it would sell off, and

and this kind of kind of kept happening.

I think that's one of the reasons I

closed a lot much of my positions last

night was because, you know, even

outside of the them going limit down.

The demand just wasn't there and it

looked like they were levered too. And

so I want to kind of step out of that

market for a little bit. But but those

are things I'll be watching.

>> That's interesting. So you you did

derisk just because the price action you

you don't really like it. And also, can

you speak to the fact that, you know, if

you're a pure fundamentals person with

equities, like if Warren Buffett likes

Coca-Cola at 50 and it crashes and goes

to 42, he's probably going to buy more

of it. But with commodities,

you know, often you do have to respect

the price action.

>> Yeah. And and you know, today's demand

is tomorrow's supply in those short-term

markets. And so I think

it's possible to see a couple weeks of

people just getting washed out and a ton

of volatility. And just given the vault,

I think you'll see banks also reducing

their warehousing abilities, investment

firms de-risking. That might have

already happened and that's why I would

do a little bit of wait and see. But

again, like the case isn't as good at 80

as it was at 20 obviously. So I'm not

I'm not pounding the table here. more

again long stuff over like a two to

three year horizon and trying to be

short paper

>> short paper silver

>> no like paper like stocks bonds

>> okay okay

>> pieces of paper the the economy of paper

you know what I mean like I think you

want to be long the world of data long

the world of stuff and financial assets

in general I think you know this whole

dolization trade is a little bit

overhyped but I think that we're

entering in a world where

globalization is dying and people are

going to try to build their own supply

chains and that's you know inflationary

in a lot of ways

>> and tell us a little bit about the

silver technology the the transition

from PERC to Topcon and how that changed

the percentage of silver used in the

solar panels and how also as the silver

price has gone up there's been a lot of

what's it called shrinking or you know

the term I'm talking about

>> um

>> thrifting

thrifting. Yeah. So,

couple threads in there. So, one is, you

know, solar panel only captures, I don't

know, 22% of the energy that hits it.

That's come up from about five over like

the last couple decades. So, that means

again the solar panel is more profitable

because it generates more energy. But

the two ways the two two mechanisms you

described actually to get that increase

in efficiency is the word that the tech

use the word efficiency which is the

amount it captures they had to use more

silver. It was a more silver intensive

process. And so the same amount of

physical panel used more silver. Okay.

So that's one phenomena that was kind of

giving support to the price. There is

another thing which called thrifting or

just the general what a non markets

person would call efficiency gains which

is every year we get a little bit better

at you know making the thing with less

stuff. Okay. So those two things are

happening at the same time. You have the

more intense use from the transition to

this other technology and then you have

we get a little bit better at it each

year. And there's also the thrifting is

price elastic. So as the price of at

least that's what as the price of silver

goes up they they want to use less of

it.

>> Yeah. It's I mean like any like any

supply chain, right? And then the big

worry is basically copper substitution

which is at about $125 an ounce. A lot

of these solar panel companies if they

can't pass on that cost increase which

has gone from like you know 5% of the

cost of the solar panel to like 30 or 25

they don't make money. And so they have

a lot of incentive to what's called

copper substitution. There's a couple of

things that are further down the line

like this thing called perovite or

something like that, but it's like super

janky. Doesn't work yet. They can't

figure out how to make it work like in

scale. But copper substitution kind of

works. And copper substitution is

basically you take a very tiny amount of

silver and you wrap it in copper. So the

copper creates the connectivity, but the

silver gets the conductivity that you

need like through the system. So that I

think will be accelerated with this

move. It's less of an existential threat

at 80 than it is at 100 or 120. But I

think that's also partially why we saw

the kind of ceiling on the price over

the past couple of weeks because that's

about 120 is about where that starts to

become a really big deal for the solar

panel providers which is the big source

of demand

>> and according to my research which you

know what what do I know just looking up

Gemini but a lot of that new technology

a couple of the top maybe two or three

players are prepared to do that

technology that uses more copper and

substitute it in 2026 but the bulk of

the solar industry is not ready to do

that till 2028. Does that roughly accord

with your research?

>> Wanting to do it in 2026 and actually

doing it in 2026 are very different

things. So, it's still going to take

them a couple of years to retrofit all

these processes. They might get a plant

up or whatever. But my back of the

envelope was it took about 24 months to

fully change that supply chain. And so,

you probably went from 5% of the market

looking to do this to 50% of the market,

but you still have a couple of years.

Now, if you're if you're doing the deep

out there, it is a thing where if solar

if if silver hits $120 an ounce and

these guys invest billions of dollars in

figuring how to do it really rapidly,

you'll pull that forward. Alex, you

know, you have been a giant bull on

silver and sounds like still modestly

bullish. You I myself have participated

this on on the long side as well. So,

I'm glad that we've reached this long in

the interview at before us, you know,

getting, you know, foaming at the mouth

too bullish. However, I will point out

something just to throw it at you that

from my research like a lot of the

silver bull market from 2000 to 2011 in

those latter few years, a lot of the

time the market was technically in a

surplus. So, it appears to me that that

bull market, you know, which Warren

Buffett participated for maybe the first

half of it, but he missed on the second

more speculative half was extremely

speculative driven by Western investors.

And this time around there's there is a

deficit. So, the deficit is from

industrial demand. Yes, we clearly have

a lot of leveraged Asian speculators,

but you know, just just where do you

would you roughly agree with my

characterization and where do you think

this ends? Like how do you think the the

silver

how how do you think the the the deficit

resolves itself?

>> Remember the themes in 2008, 2009, 2010.

It was, oh my god, the financial system,

I can't trust it. Oh my god, the banks

are blowing up. Oh my god, I got to get

out of paper. Going back to this paper

concept, I got to get into the world of

metal. And I think that that was part of

the reason why it got so FOMO in 2011.

Now you have a real demand story going

on. And the Western banks are fine, but

that story is is not it's not as

viciously like biting in Asia in China

as it is here because the banks haven't

gone under. But everyone knows that the

banks are kind of not in a good place.

People are trying to get their money

out. There's capital flight. And

remember, there's twice as much money in

China as in America. Just think about

that for a second. That means if they

liberalize their capital account, and

they could buy America twice.

Do you really believe that that's the

case,

>> Alex? But you said M2 in China is twice

as big. And I believe you on that, but

in terms of capital markets, I think

that doesn't matter.

>> I'm just I'm just saying. Yeah, but I'm

just giving you an example of

>> Sorry to be a nerd.

>> No, I mean, you're again, it's it's a

euphemism, right? But like all of the M2

in China could buy all the M2 in America

twice. Do you really believe that that's

the case? Do you really believe that if

we totally liberalize the capital

account that they'd be able to gobble

gobble gobble up? I mean they also have

a gigantic bond market, right? So it's

not I mean we have bigger markets

obviously but but no and so I think the

people in China know that too. And so

what you what you saw in 2008 and 2011

in the west is playing out in the east a

little bit now too. And you know, how

does this resolve itself? It resolves

itself in one of two ways. One, copper

substitution comes in a lot faster than

people think. Two, you know, the

shortfall in the market flushes out a

bunch of people and they swear off the

metal and that kind of stuff. But

remember,

the US just told Russia that they're not

going to get their money back for their

treasuries. And so if you're China,

you're not as a government, you're not

going to stop buying gold ever. Okay? So

that's not going anywhere.

And you I think you're just going to see

that that whipsaw for the next couple of

years, which is again back to the

bullish how I got in this trade in the

first place, which is if you are an

official party or you're a household in

China, you do not have that many

allocations. You don't have that many

options for your money. If you're the

government, you do not want treasuries

anymore. You want gold. I mean, you saw

Xi come out yesterday and say, "We want

to be a reserve currency." How are they

going to do that with no open capital

account? They're going to buy gold.

They're going to try to, you know, I

don't know if they're going to back

their whole currency on gold because

they like printing money. But I think I

think on a five to 10 year horizon, you

still have to be bullish. Yes, for sure.

>> And when we look at the total above

ground identifiable

stocks in the three major markets that

the Chinese metals exchange, CME and

then London. Yeah. So London is is

extremely short because a lot of it has

g not short London supplies have gone

down a lot as that supply went to the

CME in America because of the tariff

thing last year but in total to total

supply it appears to be higher than for

much of 2023 and 2024.

Is that chart of total above ground

stocks a little bit misleading and might

the supply actually be shorter? Because

the you know if I looked at this thing I

would have think that the silver price

would have done its most rallying in

2023 and 2024 and not 2025 when

technically the above ground stocks went

up.

>> You mean just on the commodity

exchanges?

>> Yes. Yes.

>> I think stocks in China are relatively

low relative to history as well. I think

people are taking physical out. I don't

know the exact numbers of what it is in

China versus the US, but um

I think the flow that I'm willing to bet

on and the flow that I am betting on is

that metal will move east. Again, I'll

be a broken record here, but like that's

the theme that you have to understand,

which is the demand is in the east, the

supply is in the west. And you would

expect to see and you are seeing metal

move from one to the other. You know I

wouldn't be surprised if there was some

premium that continues to get baked in

to the eastern prices you know before

you take even after you take out this

bad thing you know India is also a

historical voracious demander of demand

source of gold and silver so yeah I mean

I think that there

it is true that the paper again paper

we're not mixing terms here but the

paper market every all these like silver

bulls of talking about all these like

terrible bankers and the paper market.

I'm not like, you know, to me it seems

pretty clear that the the banks are just

being banks, but that yeah, there's

going to be a lot of trading in those

assets. There's going to be a lot of

volatility in those assets relative to

the physical movement of metal. But

again, the thing I'm betting on is that

the metal will move east.

>> And in terms of a floor or a ceiling,

what what do you think? A lot of people

say that, okay, yes, like the new floor

for silver is 50 just because of the

industrial demand is is so high and

supply is so low. But also that sounds

to me like it could be true, but it

sounds like the biggest bag holder thing

to say ever. [laughter]

>> Well, again, like I'm not going to give

any price targets over the next two

weeks. Like we just saw the thing move

30%. Like you don't know what is going

to happen with shortfall in this market,

but I am a buyer at 5060 and a seller at

around 120 if that makes sense. Mhm.

That

>> which is a big range.

>> That that is that is a very big range

and you don't see new supply coming

online anytime soon.

>> You'll see some supply coming online in

response. But again, like a lot of it's

in elastic and it takes a long time to,

you know, you can't just start a mine

tomorrow and all of a sudden it's

printing, you know, 20% more more

supply.

>> Do you think we've seen the highs of 115

a week ago?

>> I'm a buyer at 60 and a seller at 120. I

I don't I mean, you know, since that

article went, you know, microviral. I

got a lot of people in my reply being

like, "Are you long hair? Are you gonna

buy here? You gonna be here?" And I'm

like, "Ah, you know, that's not my job."

But but I think we could go higher over

a longer time horizon. I don't think

we're go up there tomorrow because

again, I think a lot of the buying was

because people were short volatility on

the way up. And so you have that forced

mechanical buying, the forced mechanical

buying. But if a bank blows up in China,

if conflict breaks out, you know, if if

the AI acceleration timeline really

starts binding and we start shifting

back to solar, I think even like

Democrats getting back in power is

probably bullish because there, you

know, the US is kind of underinvested in

solar. I think these things will all be

like pretty bullish and they could all

happen at the same time.

>> Do you think that would it be possible

for you to see an opportunity for silver

in on the short side? like I I you know

I may pay it's 2027 there's officially a

surplus all of these Chinese solar

producers are saying we are you know

silver in terms of gram per per panel

has gone way way way down and this

technology is going live you know the

the the amount of speculative longs in

western ETFs Chinese ETFs everything is

really really high indicating

speculative fervor and you know the

price is at 200 I might say that for

experienced speculators who are prepared

to trade silver in a risk controlled

way, which you definitely want to do.

You know, there might be some

opportunities on the short side. Would

would you would you agree with me?

>> Yeah. So, I put four bearish pressures

or four things I would monitor that

would that if they all hit, I would

certainly change my view pretty

radically. One was peace in Ukraine

slash like a deal over Taiwan. Like,

I've been pitching this 50-year peace

plan. Like, if everyone would just chill

out for a while, again, that'd be that'd

be kind of on the margin bearish. Two is

copier substitution timelines moving up.

Okay, that's another example. Three is

actually strong US growth and higher

rates in the US and strong dollar. So I

wrote an article last week about how

that could be bearish on metals and like

you know what technically kicked off all

this move was Walsh getting nominated

which has kind of been hidden in the

>> in in in the wave. Um, and so you could

have all those things happening at once

where

Oh, yeah. And the last one was they

fixed their banks, which is never gonna

happen. But, you know, if you had all

those things happening at once, for

sure. You know, the the conflict premium

would go away, the capital flight

premium would go away, the solar demand

would be reduced significantly and a

strong dollar. Like, that'd be murder

for precious metals for sure. And I

guess the near-term catalyst was, as you

say, the nomination of Kevin Worsh to be

the next Fed chair, which has to be

approved by the Senate. I have been

asking many of my guests, to what degree

is the bid for precious metals because

President Trump has meddled or appears

to be meddling in the independence of

the central bank. And if that is

something that's truly quantifiable, you

know, was it quantifiable and tradable

on the way up? Is it quantifiable and

tradable on the way down? Now that it

appears that we have someone who in the

past has said things that appear quite

hawkish, it's unclear if he's actually

going to be that hawkish once he's in

office and he's more hawkish on the

balance sheet than he is on rates. And

maybe rates is is what matters

ultimately at the end of the day. But

just just how much did that change your

view of of of the silver and and gold

dynamics is is Kevin Wars being the next

veterary?

>> Well, not enough because otherwise I

would have sold everything and gone

short for a while. I mean, remember, I

guess the last thing is the US fiscal

deficit, which doesn't seem like it's

going anywhere, right? So, the Fed

doesn't control the budget deficit. So,

if we saw some sort of material,

you know, narrowing of the deficit or or

or move to fiscal conservatism, that

would also be relatively bearish on

metals to me. You know, I see a world

where

Europe is having tons of social upheaval

because they need to import labor to

sustain their social safety net. We had

a little bit of that. You know, nobody

wants to take pain there. So,

do you want to own those currencies over

the next 10 years is really a question.

And and then you have the China thing of

do you want to own their currency over

the next 10 years? And if the answer is

no to both of those things, then you're

going to see ups, you're going to see

downs, you're going to see these things

moving around. But, you know, to me,

that's still a relatively bullish

backdrop for for commodities.

>> Alex, tell us about Rose AI

specifically. You you know, what does

what does it do? And on the topics we've

been discussing, gold and silver

dynamics and AI earnings, everything,

how how how might Rose AI be useful to

you and to clients? And then what what

else does Rose AI do?

>> Yeah. So, you can think about Rose. I

remember I talked about frontend plus

database. So Rose is a front-end plus

database, but the goal of it is to help

people who want to get their agents to

use a database, particularly a time

series database or a hedge fund database

or you know a database that stores local

context as well. And so we help big

financial institutions and big

organizations implement AI. So all that

kind of grit that I spoke of was coming

from real battle scars that I have

navigating [clears throat] some of the

biggest banks in the world and other big

organizations and helping them use AI.

So Rose is on one level a services

company where we help people develop

that stuff. Two, it is a engine that you

can use to basically store your single

source of truth. Um you know we spent a

lot of time and energy at Bridgewater

just making sure that we could track

these markets, right? Track these

premiums, track these curves, all stuff.

It's it's it's a really backbreaking

kind of terrible thing that takes a lot

of pain and stress. And then we also

help people buy data to to kind of

hydrate those models. And so we work

with a lot of the vendors that you might

know and love to kind of give them data

pipelines into their kind of engine. And

we think that, you know, that it sounds

like a a kind of three-fold thing, but

it's all the same thing, which is

automating that kind of knowledge

management, idea generation, single

source of truth process in the age of

AI.

We'll leave it there. People can find

you on Twitter, AB Campbell. Got the

nice ABC. And you also have a blog where

you write write a lot of this stuff

about about silver and other things.

Thank you everyone for watching. Please

leave a rating and review for monetary

matters on Apple podcast and Spotify.

Thanks again. Thanks for watching.

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