If anyone's telling you that the market

action is inconsistent with actions seen

at previous market peaks or if anyone

tells you that Federal Reserve action is

inconsistent with what we've seen in the

previous market peaks, I would show them

my tech technicals at the highest show.

All of these things are in my in my

table and all these things are

consistent with what we've seen at prior

market peaks.

>> You're saying that you're seeing signs

of market?

>> You're saying that no one can argue that

the market can't peak now based on

technical data. They can argue that

we're not at a peak, but they can't

argue that we can't peak. wanted to

share with you and your readers, your

your viewers things that they've never

heard about Bitcoin. You have a lot of

factors telling you the market's why I'm

short.

>> Do you think we have a multi-deade bare

market in gold, Milton? Later on, you'll

hear more about the Fundrise Income Fund

and why sophisticated investors are

turning to higher yielding assets like

private credit. But for now, let's get

into today's interview. In this

interview, I'm speaking to the Turning

Point master himself, Milton Berg. Nine

months ago, Milton came on monetary

matters with an extraordinarily bullish

case for US stocks, which are now up

nearly 20% since that interview. Our

talk today is very technical and quite

long. So, I want to give you a little

bit of a road map. The first 20 minutes

or so we devote to the incredibly strong

buy signals that Milton saw in April

2025 that nearly one year later are

still motivating his analysis. At the

22-minute mark, Milton talks about the

disturbing December signal that made him

short the market. At the 1 hour and 12

minute mark, we talk about why Milton is

bearish on gold and silver and why he

thinks that late January was a climax

top for precious metals. At the 1 hour

and 37 minute mark, Milton talks about

Bitcoin. And just over two hours in, we

talk about the vicious selloff in

software stocks. I also want to make

clear that this interview was recorded

on February 6th and at that time Milton

in his model portfolio for institutional

clients had combined short positions of

over a 100% in the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell

as well as semiconductors based on what

he saw Monday, February 9th. Not only

did he cover those shorts, but he also

flipped long equities. Again, that is

for his institutional clients. in his

new retail service for individual

investors. Milton Signal has had a 100%

long exposure to stocks since early

April 2025. Also, when it comes to

precious metals, Milton shorted gold and

silver within one day of the high in

precious metals at the end of January,

and he remains bearish on gold and

silver. Let's get into it. Got a very

special guest. I'm joined once again by

the extremely accomplished technician

known as Milton Berg of MB Advisors and

Miltonberg Edge. Milton, it is wonderful

to see you. How are you?

>> I'm doing very well. Thank you so much.

Good to see you again, Jack. Always

enjoy interviewing with you.

>> The the feeling is mutual. Milton, about

eight or nine months ago, shortly after

the seismic panic in markets of April

2025, you you and I did an interview and

you were extremely emphatic that the

market uh the technical signals in the

market you were seeing were extremely

strong and you used extremely strong

language

>> this time. I said we've have we have a

series of buy signals. There's no no way

the market could go down. It's

definitely going to go up. How long it

goes, I don't know because you had

similar signals in 19 in ' 87 in January

and the market peaked threequarters of a

year later. So, I can't tell you how

long the market's going to rally. But I

will tell you um how high the market

should go. That's what we'll discuss

today. I said definitely going to be

bull market action.

>> You you promised bull market action.

Bull market action. We've had the

indices are are far higher now. Uh funny

you referenced 1987. That was a very

good year for you. Then in the

background people and say you were the

mutual fund manager of the year. Quite

an accomplishment. Milton, what were the

buy signals you saw in the market? How

have they evolved into January and now

February 2026? And what have you made of

the recent market action? Are you seeing

any sell signals?

>> Okay, I'm going to get back to what our

projections are. Now, we don't trade

based on projections. We trade based on

turning points. April was a major

turning point for the market. Uh, and we

pounded the table based the table. We

pounded the table by. And I'll I'll tell

you exactly why. Now, this chart as this

chart was the first of 88 buy signals we

received. Received this buy signal April

4th of 2025. I say it's the first of 88

because our retail newsletter only gets

the first signal and we say you buy now

when you hold till we tell you to sell.

Institutions are constantly comforted.

They give more confirmations and they

see many many of the signals we get. But

this was the first signal we saw on

April 4th. It was a day before the low.

On that day, the NASDAQ 5day volume was

at the 200 day high. On that day, NASDAQ

had declined 7% over the last three

days. And the VXN, which is a VIX on the

NASDAQ 100 rather than the VIX on the

S&P 500, gained 10% for at least two for

two days in a row. And this is a very

rare occurrence. We're looking for rare

occurrences. In other words, we're not

looking at moving averages and looking

what the Fed is doing and what the Fed

is saying and money supply. We're

looking for rare occurrences that take

place at market turning points. And on

this day, April 4th, you had these three

rare occurrences, which I just

mentioned. This actually occurred in the

past. occurred in uh October 8th 1998,

August 5th, 2024 and August 24th, 2015.

And the gains the maximum gains within a

year of those signals was 47% 15.6% and

23.2%. So far, so far the April 4th

signal through the high in January

through the closing high on January 27th

of this year, it's gained 37.53%.

So, it's outperformed two of the

historical precedents. It's

underperformed one of the precedents, up

47%. However, we're measuring one year

out. We're looking at the maximum gains

within one year. For all I know, we'll

be up 47% by April 4th of 2026. So, this

was the first signal we got. However, I

want to talk about projections. Why why

did we project to our clients? Now,

again, we don't trade based on

projections, but projections are very

important. Important because if you get

a buy signal, it would only historically

the median gain after that buy signal

was 5%. it really doesn't pay to trade

it because uh you know you just with the

slippage and with uh it just doesn't

pay. So we look at the historical

returns based on the signal and tell

what the market would do if we follow

the historical returns and it's very

helpful for us. So what we did is for

this chart for you guys I actually

created this for you. We took we we

broke up our signals by day. So on April

4th we actually had two signals. I

showed you one of them and based on the

signals we had on April 4th, the median

maximum gain before the market declined

10%. In other words, how much how far

did the market gain before it declined

the next 10%. So the median was 6 to

6757 relative we're using percentage

gains relative to where we started off

on April 4th and the uh the projection

on average would be 7152. Our maximized

date on a closing basis was 697860.

So based on this alone, there's more to

the upside. you see before the market

sees a 10% correction. That was April

4th. On April 7th, we had a number of

signals as well and that projected to uh

either 7291 or 7751. Again, the market

could go could go much much higher based

on those projections. On April 8th, we

had more signals with many more

historical um back backups to the

signal, many more historical precedents

and that that projected to between 7128

as a median, 6728 as an average. And

we've actually exceeded that by closing

at um the level we closed that was uh

697860. We've exceeded the average of of

previous returns. April 9th we had many

many signals. I think we had about 40

signals on April 9th itself. We had many

many historical precedents for these

signals. Each of these instances as

historical signal is a actual historical

date of the signal. So the what signal

April 9th signal looks like 30 or 40

times in the past. And these 57 signals

generate April 9th project to between

7487 or 7921 before the next decline of

20 of 10%. We're only at 697860.

Now again I don't trade based on

projections. I just give the clients

this is this is institutional work. The

retailers will not see this this kind of

work. We tell them how far the market

would go if it just gains the the median

gain or just gains the uh the um the

average gain based on the previous

signals. This is April 9th. This is

April 10th. I won't go through each one.

April 11th. Summary looking at all the

signals from April 4th through April

through April um through April 30th.

Many many buy signals. I said the medium

projection would be to be 7437 in the

S&P. The average projection is 75.99

which means from the from the closing

high on on January 28th 27th it's about

nearly 6%

and uh about 8 and a half% from where we

where we u from where we closed the

actual high 6978 you see. So again based

on the kind of buy signals we saw in

April the market has not satisfied its

historical gains. It had not satisfied

it historical mean or average. hasn't

satisfied its historical uh returns as

you'd expect after that that kind of

low. I just point out that the low in

April generate the most extreme oversold

condition we've ever seen. This is based

on 18 a combination of 18 oversold

indicators and the indicators go back

only to 1995 or so. So maybe you saw it

prior to that. But in any event, from

1995 to 2025, we had the most oversold.

And the reasons why half the half the

country hates Trump. Half the country

thinks Trump's going to cause the great

depression. And the other half of the

country that loves Trump hates Powell.

So they think Powell is going to cause

the Great Depression or hyperinflation.

And when Trump announced tariffs and he

great negotiated, people thought he

people laughing at him or laughing about

it. They took it seriously and they

thought they were going to have 100% or

200% or 300% tariffs on China or

whatever Trump decided on that

particular day. And people truly

panicked and market bottoms always occur

on panic. So uh our our signals flashed

on the days you know April 4th into the

low April 8th day of the low and April

9th day after the low. So signal at the

oversold readings into the low and at

the thrust off the low and again

projections look for say another 6%

above the current high which is not a

lot 6% is not a lot for an institutional

trader who's trading uh some some people

are trading trillions of dollars but

those are trading even billions of

dollars. You're probably going to start

worrying about the market now if the

medium projection is 6%. But we don't

tell our clients uh that we uh to wor

really worry about projections. We worry

about a turning point analysis and we'll

see in a minute that actually looked a

little bit cautious. We'll get to that

in a moment. I just want to review some

I took from each day just one signal

just to give your your viewers an idea

of what we look at because up until this

point you could say this this Milton is

just really he's just sort of like um

saying he has all these indicators but

we why should we believe him? I mean why

should you believe there's some robust

indicators? I mean for all we know he's

like all these charlatans on Wall Street

who claim they know what the market's

going to do and everybody knows they

can't project the market and everyone

knows the market is efficient. So what

exactly does he have? So I decided to

show take one signal for each of those

dates in April just to review what we

saw on those individual dates. So for

example for April 4th we had two

signals. This is just signal one of two

signals and as I said the NASDAQ's 5day

volume was at a 200 day high. The NASDAQ

had gain had lost 10.61% 61% over 3

days. The threshold for the signal is

losing 7%. And the VIX traded between 45

and 60 which is a which a rarity. The

VIX in our case was 45.31.

That's that generated signal gives you a

buy signals. As you can see these are

the two historical buy signal. This is

the great buy signal we had on April 4th

day before the low April 7th 2025. We

also had two signals. Now what do you

see in this one? First of all, instead

of looking at the NASDAQ volume, looking

at the New York Stock Exchange total

volume and its total volume was the

highest in 370 days sometime within the

past 20 days. Now, what does that mean?

It means we're in a regime of high

volume. People who know markets know

that turning points take place in a

regime of high volume. You don't necess

don't necessarily see the highest volume

on the day of the low or the day of the

high, but you just see very very high

fiveday volume sometime before the low

or sometimes before the high and we use

20 days as a threshold. So if we saw

fiveday volume in the New York Stock

Exchange, highest in 375 days, which is

a year and a half of trading, we saw

that within the past 20 days, we know

we're in a regime of high volume. Now

that's number one. Number two is there's

an oscillator generated by Ned Davis

Research. I put that for this indicator

but we actually have have uh made some

minor changes but any event that

oscillator is at 10 it runs from zero to

100 that was actually at 4.44 44 on

April 7th, 2025. It ranges from zero to

100. Obviously, it was major oversold.

And the threshold here, if it's 10 or

below, the third indicator is you take

the new highs and new lows in the NASDAQ

on a 5-day basis and you took a

percentage of new highs to new lows. In

any event, it was oversold at -6%. And

this again occurred at the lows in 1998,

occurred at the lows in 20 um 2018. It

occurs at the March lows in 2020 and

occurred on April 7th, 2025 at the lows.

That's one signal on April 7th. We

already showed you the projections, but

as said, anyone can show projections. We

want to show get under the hood and see

exactly what we're signaling. Again,

we're not using moving averages. We're

not using crossing. We're not using Fed

Fed. We're not using seasonality. We're

not talking about, you know, uh, if if

the market's up first five days of

January, we'll have a a bull market.

We're talking about precise rarities

that occur at marketing turning points.

Let's see what happened on April 8th.

April 8 had four signals. This is one of

the four signals. The NASDAQ 5-day rate

of change was weakest in 1,260 days. You

know what that means? That's in five

years. The five-day loss in the NASDAQ

was the greatest in over a 5year period.

Of course, everyone agree that's a

rarity. You don't see that every day. In

this case, it was down 1250%

over the five-day period into into April

8th. Then on additionally, the S&P 500

4-day advanced decline ratio generated

what we call a reverse thrust. Reverse

thrust means instead of being 2:1 or 7:1

day like today, let's see what it is

today. Today it's about 3:1 right there.

It's 0.2 to1. In other words, so you

were overwhelmed. The five the four day

AD line was overwhelming on the downside

and it was below

>> meaning that the amount of stocks that

were declining as opposed to advancing

was overwhelming.

>> Overwhelming to the downside but

extremely overwhelming. Extremely

extremely overwhelming. We're not

looking at averages. Okay, let's

continue. Then April 9th. April 9th they

said we had 50 signals or so. We really

have more but you know but but you know

my mind and my computer can't handle

much more. Let's see what we had on

April 9th. April 9th, the market was up

9%. The S&P was up 9.52% on the day. The

NASDAQ was up more than 9%. You had

overwhelming 95 to an upside downside

volume. But this is not what this this

indicator is showing you something else.

S&P was below it 50day moving average,

meaning that the S&P was by definition

by some people definition it was in a

bare market. That's the first criteria.

That's really nothing. Secondly is the

market gained at least 6%

from its last time it declined 10%. In

other words, happens to have been

declined 18% into the previous day's low

and this day was up 9.52%. So by

definition, it gained 6% from its last

10% decline. But just to be just to be

precise, it's not enough of gain 6%.

This has to be the highest high off that

low. So in other words, the S&P could

lost 10%. It's now up 6% off that low,

but today is the highest high off that

low. That again reduces the number of

days because in any bull market the S&P

is up 6% from its last 10% decline. But

it's it's not enough to be up 6% through

the last 10% decline. This has to be the

exact high day since that 10% decline.

Okay. Next one is the S&P generates

greatest gain in the last 250 days which

is about a tra it's roughly a trading

year and that's it was up 9.52% greatest

one day gain. And on top of that, the

S&P's volume on the day had to have

increased by at least 20% over the

previous day. In this case, it increased

38.28% over the previous day. And the

second condition is it has to be an

upday. So very often the market crashes,

the market is down in the day and volume

increases by 20%. This indicator needs

the markets to be up on the day and

volume to have increased by 20%. When

the all these four things come together,

you saw bottoms in 19 1976. You saw

bottoms in 1982, you saw bottoms in

1984, you saw bottom a double bottom in

2022 and 2000 in June and in October

2022. Jack, if you recall, we met then

we we we had a discussion then I pointed

out that Russell actually bottomed in

June and the S&P bottomed in October and

NASDAQ bottomed in in um in January in

December. So both of these calls were

correct. You had a buy, we had a buy

signal at the bottom in June and a buy

signal at the bottom in October. The

June signal actually was the bottom. The

Russell never made a lower low. And the

S&P made a low about 2% below low of

June and we got a buy signal then in

October. And again, you got a buy signal

October 9th, 2025. This is one of 57 buy

signals. Just one. Again, my point is to

show the robustness of the signal. Also,

I don't want to show off too much, but

no one on Wall Street has this kind of

information. We're really the only one

this particular models that we have. I

just finished I mean institutions have

been writing letters and working with

institutions for quite a number of years

but I've been on the side basically I've

been working on creating these models

and I just finished it in September. So

a lot of things you see now was really

relatively new. I wasn't able to show it

to clients a year ago or two years ago

or three years ago because we didn't

really finish creating the models and

and and fine-tuning the models and and

eliminating models that didn't have uh

perfect records until until September.

So April 10th, 2025 and again what when

you show the top of it is it's the first

time this this ever signal. So the first

one for example April 4th the first time

it ever signal was October 8th 1998. You

see the one April 7th the first time it

ever signal was September 1st 1998. The

April 8th signal the first time this

particular indicate ever signal was

March 27th 1980. And the first time the

April 9th was on April 14th 1978. And

then we have another signal on October

on April 10th 2025. And that signal the

day of the crash low in 1987. What is

the signal? Basically, the 7-day volume

breath, no polarity. No, the the model

doesn't care whether the volume was up

or the volume was down. All it cares

about that on a 7-day basis, you have 12

times as much either upside volume or

downside volume as the other side. In

other words, either 12 times as much

upside versus downside or 12 times as

much downside versus upside. The market

doesn't care which extreme it is. All

the market cares about is that is at an

extreme. In this particular instance, by

April 10th, the 7-day volume breath was

12 to1 on the upside in the New York

Stock Exchange. The 7-day volume breath

in the Russell 2000 was 10 to1 and the

10day volume breath in the in the um

Russell 2000 was 8:1. And on top of

that, New York Stock Exchange volume on

a 5day average was the greatest over the

last three years. These four rarities

put together have signaled 17 times in

the past. As you can see, in each

instance, a bull market followed. And

that's where we're able to pound the

table and say a bull market will follow.

>> Thank you, Milson. So, it's fair to say

you were able to spot in April at the

low, a few days within the low sign

overwhelming signals of the market

bottoming. That turned out to be

correct. And what's interesting to me is

we're already, you know, close to a year

out and the S&P has up 38% maybe 40%

from there. And your signals from April

are so strongly bullish that you want

more. You're saying 5% 6%.

>> I tell you like this. This is very

interesting. I'm glad you bring it up.

First of all, we haven't had a 7%

correction since AP April lows. Got a 5%

correction within two day three days of

the low, but you didn't have never had a

7% correction. Forget about 10%. More

than that, it's glad you mentioned the

analogy that came up in in the previous

interview was, you know, when when when

uh who's a great baseball player? I I

mentioned Ted Williams or or Babe Ruth,

but now the guy Otani, right? Right.

Yeah. Otani swings a bat and hits a home

run. based on physics, the physics knows

that the the ball will cross over will

be a home run over the fence as soon as

it leaves the bat,

>> right?

>> There's nothing going on after it leaves

the bat that's keeping the ball up and

telling it to cross cross over the

fence. It's the momentum of the action

that and the physics that took place

when the bat hit the ball that tells you

at that time that it's going over the

fence.

>> It was a launch. It was the launch, a

forced launch, right? So what we're

looking for on a on a buy signals are

launches.

>> So the fact that the market was able to

have a a 95 to an upside volume day one

day after the low and other things we

look at that tells you there is

underlying physics underlying momentum

underlying strength that doesn't

dissipate in five days or 10 days or 20

days and generally it lasts a year or

longer. And I I've got to ask you. So it

was a very strong thrust from that that

bottom on April April 8th around there

until the very late October October 29th

2025. Since then we it feels the

market's been feeling very bullish but

we're kind of kind of in a holding

holding pattern and I'm sure you're

going to reference buy you know

indicators buy signals and sell signals

from from April 2025 all the way

throughout the fall and and winter. But

just if possible, could I bring you back

to the current moment right now?

>> I would say it's worse than you say

because we got signals in April, we got

signals, some signals in May, no signals

in June, no signals in July, one single

in August, which is really not part of

the model. I I don't really trust that

signal. So there's no really confirming

signals throughout this bull market. All

we have is what you had in April and

May. It's all we have going for us. And

yes, um, as you saw, the market really

isn't doing as well as you'd expect

based on the signals, right? We showed

you really underperforming. We should be

up another four, six, eight%. But maybe

we still may get there by the by the

time the year is up. Is that

>> Have you got any sell signals recently?

>> First of all, um we wrote a report

today. I think it should first start

today and what we wrote about the last

week or so. Okay.

>> Yep.

>> So this morning's report is right here.

Strangely, the market is strangely

oversold. Not ready to go equity shorts.

In other words, the reason to believe

even though we're we're the market S&P

only declined 2.58%

over the January 27th all-time high and

even though the NASDAQ has only declined

5.92%

from October 29th high to yesterday's

close and the Russell only declined

5.19%. So not certainly no major bare

market really just a minor correction.

Still still VIX VXN has gained 10% over

two days running. VXN has gained 35%

over three days. NASDAQ has generated

weakest five days in 180 days and

fiveday volume in most indexes most of

them both the small caps and the large

caps are at 180 to 200 day highs. Now

what does that mean? I'm going to show

you something here. There's only one

time in history that you saw what you

saw yesterday which is the NASDAQ index

generating its weakest 5day gain or

actually fiveday loss weakest fiveday

gain in 180 days. the S&P, the NASDAQ AD

line declining eight out of 10 days in a

row. And eight out of 10 days, you had a

declining AD line. And the VXN gaining

35% over three days. These are three

rare indicators to see. And for them to

happen in one day only happened once.

And guess where that happened? It

happened with a sharp short correction

in 1997 right here. See? Now, what have

we had now? We had a sharp short

correction. The Russell peaked in late

January. It's still early February. The

midcaps peaked in in January. the the

socks index the semiconductors it peaked

I think uh on January 30th or maybe you

know so they just peaked two two or

three four days ago a sharp short

correction which caused the NASDAQ to

have its weakest 5day gain in 180 days

and eight out of n 10 days a declining

ad line and for the VXN which is VIX on

the NASDAQ to gain 35% three days and

when did it ever happen once before not

during a bare market during a a minor

correction took 14 days this correction

you see that happened again yesterday.

So that's the reason to turn bullish. In

that particular instance, the market

gained 35% without a pullback. It gained

a full 39% without a pullback. You see,

today we're having a very big day. We're

having the biggest day since May in the

markets, right? I mean, you look

>> today we're Friday, February 6,

extremely strong market,

>> right? I mean today you look at the

socks index which is looked like it's is

breaking down. Socks is at this moment

of 5.59%. Okay. Anyway, there's one

reason to consider covering shorts. Then

let me continue with this report.

There's another reason to continue

covering shorts because the VXN gained

10% for two days.

>> I'm sorry. I I guess I gotta go back.

First of all, why have you been short in

in your model portfolio? I I it's

important that I say what we saw today.

I'm going to get back to exactly why

we're short. All right. All right.

>> It's actually in this. It's actually in

this report.

>> First, our clients if the following what

I'm saying the short I myself am short,

right? Um the problem is you see action

yesterday that suggests to cover the

shorts. We're going to see exactly why

we're short and whether the evidence we

see today is sufficient to cover the

shorts based on what I just showed you

only had one precedence you in a sharp

unexpected decline that lasts just a

number of days I mean you saw these

indicators which exactly happened

yesterday in that case the market that

was its bottom and it gained 35% before

its next high and the second thing we

saw was this where the VIX VXN gained

10% for two days running VXN gained 35%

in three days and Nasdaq decline was the

greatest 180 days. This happened eight

times in the past. And let's just show

you the the instances. 1998 it was um at

a at a market low. S&P gained 38%.

Happened twice in the 2010 was during

the flush crash. In this case, the

market went down another another 7.9%.

So see there's not a perfect indicator.

Uh October 13th, 2014, the market gained

another 13%. bottom two days later down

only six threequarters of a percent

gained gained 13%. August 21st 2015 was

the day before the low of which in that

for that instance the market gained 7%

in 51 days and the next day which is

another buy signal it gained 11% in in

50 days and then you have August 5th

2024 after a sharp correction in the S&P

the market bottomed on that day and

gained 18.468 468 and it signaled on

August 4th, 2025 as well. It's not this

is not part of a model. These are the

kind of things we study each day. Our

models are fixed. When they signal, we

know they signal. Every day I look at

our indicators to see what it's telling

us. This is one of the things it's

telling us. So basically, I'm telling

myself it's quite possible that what we

saw yesterday was a low. I want to see

some more confirmation. Maybe it's not a

low. Maybe it's going to be more like

the flash crash in this case, right?

Where the market went down another 7.9%.

We've never seen this action early in a

bull market bare market, let's put it

that way. We've seen it during

corrective periods and the market

bottoms one or two months later at at

the worst. We've never seen this kind of

action early in a bull market.

>> So that's very promising, Milton, that

the action that we saw yesterday on

Thursday, February 5th. You often you

have seen in multiple local bottoms

suggesting that it's it's it's a bullish

indicator.

Yeah, it's not enough for me to cover my

shorts. But when I realized that the SVU

is down less than 3%.

NASDAQ was down less than 6% off its

highs. And still you saw panic in my

indicators, these rare indicators that

suggests that we're all going to be

fooled and the market could take off,

but I I haven't trig I haven't triggered

this yet. Now, realize my retail

newsletter clients are still long

because they had no reason to get out.

They're not traders. They're long-term

investors. We'll get to that in a

moment. and they're sitting pretty

today. My institutional investors are

not because either they maybe short

gold, maybe short stock so stocks, maybe

short the NASDAQ, maybe short the

Russell, maybe short the S&P and they're

all all screaming today. But this is re

why we went short. This is the reason we

went short right here. Okay.

>> Yep.

>> I'm going to show this later on. We got

a sell signal on December 11th. See the

December 11th, 2025, we got a sell

signal. This sell signal does not always

work. Okay. In other words, this sell

signal is telling you that the VX I

don't want to give you the the the

secret source, but it's looking at a

short-term rate of change in the VXN,

which is the VIX on the NASDAQ, relative

to another short-term VXM, which is

longer than the first shorter term. We

want to see a sharp shift in the VXN on

a short-term basis relative to previous

short-term basis. If I had to give you a

number, I'd say five days relative to 30

days, right? Tell you 10 days relative

to 30 days. Those aren't the real

numbers. Anyway, these gifts these

>> is it is it an increase in the in the

NASDAQ mix increase or in a very short

term rather over previous short term.

>> Okay. You you can tell me after the call

Milton but for now. Yeah.

>> Okay. Yes, I guess I could. But listen,

so in this case

this catches bare market rallies there

with singles when the market's up 18 or

15% in a bare market. It catches

rallies. It catches major bare market

major bull market peaks. But during a an

extended bill bull market, which you may

be having now, it gives a number of

false signals. I've pulled out the

successful signals from 1998 and we're

tracking is the market's following what

it does when the signals are successful.

If it's not, we get out of the short.

You understand? In other words, we're

going short on a probabilistic basis

knowing we may be wrong.

>> So, let me show you what we did on on

you know how how much the market has has

gained since December 11th. Take if you

wouldn't look at this table, what's the

maximum gain since December 11th?

Everything was talking about the great

new year and the bull movement, right?

>> Okay, I'll take guess I'll get I'll

guess I'll guess 7%.

>> What the S&P gained a maximum of 1.12%

since December 11th. That's all.

>> Really? Wow.

>> I want I can show you the chart if you'd

like.

>> I believe you.

>> Okay.

>> If there's anyone I believe Milton, it's

>> from the December 11th close to the

December to the January 27th close,

which was a final alltime high in the

S&P, it's only gained 1.12%. Now when

the success sixes were successful you

saw instances where it gained 1.8 for

1.98 5.17%.

2.61 2.78 2. So right now the way the

market has acted off the off those highs

is very consistent with successful

signals. Got it.

>> Uhhuh.

>> It's only hasn't really moved. Now

secondly let's see um we're now 37 days

past the signal. At yesterday's close we

were 37 days past the signal. How is it

done? Now, Sesby hadn't collapsed. It's

only down 1.49% since December 11th. But

let me show you something. In the year

2000, the signal on June 12th, the

market was up 0.45% 37 days later. Yet,

it g total decline off the signal of

23.70%.

In in 2001,

>> it was just later. It was just later, 58

days later.

>> Right. Right. The signal was later. But

the point is the market held up just as

it's held up now or actually or it's

held up then as well. Secondly, in in

here, it was up 0.31% in 2001, but from

the date of the signal, the ultimate

decline was 32%. And then again in in um

in 2015, excuse me. Yeah, it was up

1.07% by day 37, but its ultimate

decline was 13%. And again in 2021, it

was up 0.36%

through day 37 and its ultimate cl%. So

therefore, I tell my clients, yes, we're

short since December 11th. Yes, the

market hasn't gone down. However, the

market hasn't gone up. It's only gone up

1.2 12% maximum. And looking at the

instances in the past where the signal

work by day 37 in many instances, it was

up. We're down 1.49%.

So the my recommendation to the to the

institutions now, they don't all follow

me. They just use me as an input.

Obviously, the people managing billions

and trillions of dollars, I'm just one

input. Hopefully, I'll be one of the the

satis one of the best inputs, but I'm

just one input. But in any event, based

on this successful short single, we

should still be short. Now, it might

change at today's close for all I know,

right? But based on this successful

short signal of the past, let's face it,

we're only up 1.2% since December 11th

in the S&P. And at yesterday's close, we

were down 1.49, which is totally

consistent with previous successful

signals. This is the one reason I went

short. Nothing to do with the Fed,

nothing to do with Trump, nothing to do

with moving averages. Simple and

indicated. doesn't have a perfect

record, but it work it works great at

calling market peaks and bull and bare

market rally peaks. And since we had no

new bicycles since since May, and we had

one buy in June, which is I'll get to it

may be later, it's a weak buy signal.

We're giving you the benefit of the

doubt to the short side. However, I

would tell you a retail investor who's

following my work would sit through a

correction of four, five, six, even 7%

and not get out and and and and because

we're very long-term oriented for

institutions, we're trading oriented. We

can go short, we can go long, we can go

leveraged. It's a totally different

ballgame. And this is the reason we got

short just because of this one signal.

Of course, in the back of my mind, I

know there's there's there's a recession

indicator has 100% record that's now in

a cell, which is the rate of change of

the unemployment rate that's suggesting

recession. I know the leading indicators

are still suggesting recession. And

maybe there'll be recession, maybe

depression, maybe great deflation, may

be inflation. We don't really care. We

just care about the indicators. And in

the back of my mind, I know if you're

going to get a major bare market,

there'll be some sort of event that we

probably can't even predict that's going

to be associated with that bare market.

I think I already asked you this,

Milton, but it was the move in the V the

NASDAQ VIX VXN. Was it a decline or a

increase?

>> You asked me before. It's actually a

decline. It signals that after rally,

it's actually a decline. I'm sorry. It's

a sharp decline. Let's say it's 5 days,

but it's not five days. Let's say it's

five days relative to 30 days, relative

to 20 days. It's not 30. It's not 20.

You want to see a sharp decline in in

VIX relative to the rate of change for a

longer period. And it's

>> it's basically people

work.

>> It's inclusive. The five days include

the 30 days. You see,

>> it's not five days and the previous 25

days. It's five days and 30 days

including these five days, which has to

be a greater extreme.

>> I see. So, so it's pe it's uh investors

who were hedged bidding up options on

>> they got rid of their hedges too

quickly.

>> Very they're very optimistic of the

market on a very short-term basis

showing up in these numbers. Right.

Exactly. It's a shift in expected

volatility which is which is a shift in

bullishness which doesn't always show up

in the doesn't always show up in the

institutional uh in the in the uh retail

newsletter followers. Doesn't always

show up necessarily in put call ratios

but it shows up in this indicator

precisely near market peaks.

>> Yes. Almost never. And was it two

coincidence things? This VXN thing

happening and something else or was just

this?

>> No. No. This is one indicator based on

VXN itself. one indicator I say it's not

don't have a perfect record.

>> Yeah. This is this is special because

you know most of the times people see

implied volatility falling or even

crashing and they see that as a giant

buying opportunity for you it makes you

nervous. That's very interesting.

>> No no no no context context context.

Jack if this would have if this would

have signaled on June 15th I would have

it didn't but if it did I would have

ignored it because you're just coming

right off a major low with major buy

signals. Mhm.

>> Since it's signaling in December after

the market up since April and since um I

I got no additional confirming buy

signals, that's when I will try to act

on this. In other words, when I tell you

the signal is not always perfect and I

mentioned that in bull markets, you're

going to get false signals. I'm aware of

that. I'm not going to during the bull

market, I'm not going to have four or

false signals I'm going to follow. I'm

going to follow signals in which the

market has already gained significantly

and there's no confirming buy signals.

>> That makes sense. And so to me, you

know, normal normally, Milton, you get

an overwhelming

uh uh constellation. It's like a it's

like a parade of buy signals or sell

signals that that motivate you. Just let

me finish that motivate you to to

establish a position. It's interesting

to me, Milton, and you know, may maybe

you know, I won't without your

permission disclose just exactly how

short you are in your model portfolio,

but I can tell our audience uh very very

very short. It's interesting to me that

it indicates why why you have such a

large short position given this one

reading. Uh yeah.

>> Well, there's more. There's other things

that I talk about, but we went short on

December 11th. We added short

subsequently based on other things. I

just want to show you.

>> Okay.

>> We were long into December 11th. We went

short on December 11th. I'm trying to

show you why really, but I want to tell

you one other thing. And and I know most

technicians won't admit to this.

>> Many will, but many won't. It is so much

easier to call a market bottom

technically than to call a market peak.

Okay? Yet yet

technicians are always afraid to call

the market bottom and they're never

afraid to call the market peak. That's

so wrong at the top and they're so wrong

at the bottom. It's so amazing. In other

words, it's easier to call bottoms, but

everyone's always afraid to call the

bottom. But it's so much easier

technically.

>> Calling it top is very, very difficult

for everybody because tops it's in

stocks, not necessarily in commodities.

Clients are easy, but stocks are have

round the tops. And there's always

groups that are doing well even while

the market's peaking. So stocks are much

more difficult. And it's funny enough,

everyone's out there, you know, you see

people you interview all calling for

market crashes, market crashes, market

crashes, calling it for six months,

eight months, nine months, 10 years in a

row. You understand?

>> It's find somehow they find it easy to

call for market crashes. They're very

difficult to call market bottoms. Even

though market bottoms are so much easier

to call and market tops are much more

difficult to call.

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interview.

>> Okay. You want to talk Bitcoin or more

about stocks? I could talk about because

I have a lot of more about stocks.

>> Let's tease the people a little bit.

Let's uh let's let them wait. Let's talk

more about stocks. We will get into

Bitcoin. We will get into gold. We will

get into silver. But yeah, what were the

other signals you saw since December?

>> Let me show you something here. We we

actually let me do this control. If you

can't see the screen, let me know.

>> I will.

>> Russell 2000. We called this I actually

sent out the email at 401. I started

writing it at 10 minutes to 4 on January

23rd day after the top at the close.

This is the Russell 2000. This is a

chart. You can see where I'm circling

here, the circle.

>> Yes.

>> You see this island reversal? Island

reversal means it gapped into the into

the update and and and it gapped down.

You can make a little island. This this

bar in the top is an island. You see you

see what I mean by island.

>> Can you explain what what what this

means and and what it indicates in

>> I'll tell you what it means. When the

market gaps the up. Now, some people

don't understand what a gap is. A gap

doesn't mean the market opened higher

than yesterday's close. That's not a

gap. A gap means it happened opened

higher than yesterday's high. And the

downside gap means it opened lower than

yesterday's low. And for a gap to be

valid, it has to trade the whole day

with the gap not being filled. So in

other words, if the if the market is up

on a day and it it opens higher than the

day's previous high and by the end of

the day, it remains higher than the it

always remained higher than than the day

it previous high. That's an upside gap.

Downside gap is just the opposite. The

market opens below the previous day's

low and throughout the day it remained

its highest high of the day was below

the previous day's previous low. Okay,

that's a gap. A gap basically is telling

you

there's an emotional move. That's what a

gap is supposed to tell you. It's an

emotional move in the market. It's very

very rare in some markets is more rare

than other markets, but it's very rare

to see a market gap at all. I'll show

you some markets that almost never gap.

But there's something called an island

reversal, which is just two gaps. One

gap that takes place on the way up,

another gap that takes on the way down.

And you could make an island. There's an

air pocket between between those two

gaps. Now, I I showed you this one, but

this is a unique app. It's the only time

it ever happened in history of the

Russell 2000. What does that mean? It's

a one day island. I call it an isolated

one-day island reversal at the top. The

Russell 2000 was really really really

very very lethargic for quite a number

of years as you know right? Yes.

>> All of a sudden in January people are

saying the market is broadening. The

market is broadening. Wow. Look the

small caps are moving right. Everyone

was saying it. Even the beers were

saying it. Oh you know the the AI is

going to go down but the Russell is

going to continue higher. There's a

shift in rotation right? And people

believed it to so much of an extent that

on January 22nd, the day of the final

high so far in the Russell, the market

gapped up. But that's only half the

story. The next day, the market gap down

and it created a one-day island

reversal. One day

>> and this never happened before, ever.

>> Never in the Russell 2000. Usually an

hour reversal have three days or six

days. I'll show you the history. I have

I went through every island reversal

history of the Russell. Got it? So I'm

not just talking out of my hat.

>> I know you're not talking out your hat.

Yeah. Russell 2000 is the US small caps.

>> Russell 2000 had an island. I

immediately said the Russell 2000 is

giving a very very bearish signal. So we

had a sell signal on December 11th in

the in the S&P. S&P only was up maximum

1.2% above its high in um in actually by

January 22nd was even up 1.12% because

it peaked on January 27th. But anyway,

this is another reason to suggest the

market might be topping and in fact the

Russell 2000 ultimately through

yesterday's close were down um I think

7% off its high. What am I showing you?

This is an island versus the gap is

negative. I looked at previous tops that

occurred with N. Now you see you had you

had an you had a you have a gap up right

off the lows in April. You see you have

a gap up in May. You have a gap up in

June. You ignore these gaps because the

market's coming off a thrust low.

You don't just like we don't look at the

you don't look at the um VXN sell signal

right off the low because of course VXN

is going to collapse right off the low.

So too, there'll be a lot of enthusiasm

when the market is coming off a low. But

we're looking at this where everyone's

so excited about the Russell claiming

that it's starting to break out,

claiming to see a broadening and that's

where you see iron revers means it gaps

up, gaps down, and then it continues

lower. Now we wrote our report the day

gap down of course continued lower and

TSA's closed. So this is showing early

in the move. You can see multiple you

see multiple gaps which are considered

buy signals. See context is the key in

many indicators.

Gaps are not random. Gaps take place off

lows and gaps take place into tops. You

have to know where you are, what where

you potentially are. This is July 17th,

2000. This again, it wasn't an island

reversal. It was two gap days in a row

off the high, two gap downs, and that

marked the top of the market. The the

market tested, never made a higher high,

and then it declined some 40% over the

next two years from July 72, 2000 to the

to the bottom of the bare market. You

saw over here again in um September

19th, 2008. Now realize

>> Leman

>> the um you you there was a financial

crisis and and and for some reason on

that day there was some positive news

out of the Fed and the Russia 2000

gained 19.85%

on the day.

>> Milton only because I'm a giant nerd and

I've read a lot of books about 2008. I

think that was uh you know you're a

technician not that you you think it it

doesn't matter. I live I lived through

it but I I sort of I remember what the

market did but I forget what the news

>> there was a stimulus bill that was I

think was going to go through Congress

and then it didn't pass and it was a

>> so it's up 19% in today 985%

gapped up to the top and then it

declined 60% to it final low and this is

continuation gap so on point y where you

see important gaps at previous peaks now

look at this one this is on um January

17th 2020 remember you remember the

COVID crisis I think so right covid

crisis y crisis didn't really begin

until uh until early March. But the

Russell knew about the COVID crisis

because the Russell gapped up one day

before its peak. One day before the

all-time high, the Russell 2000 on

January 17th, 2020, the Russell gapped

up. That was its high. Then it further

gaps into the secondary high. But this

is again a sign of a market peak. Enthus

uncalled for enthusiasm at a new high.

Got it?

>> In that case, the market declined

another 43.90% to its low. And I show

2007 of various gaps. I don't want to

take too much time on this. I just want

to justify why I'm able to I'm going

through history of gaps. I mean the only

other the see this is our island

reversal. This is our current market.

You see the one I showed you earlier

January 22nd 2016 right

>> the peak in November 15 2024 the final

peak in that in that rally was also on a

gap day. You see then the market

declined 29.90%.

To find a a an island reversal in the

Russell island reversal. Let me see if I

I think I I highlighted an island

reversal here. No, this not a true

island reversal. No. Uh I think I

highlighted one, but I don't take too

much time in it now. But the the the one

day island reversal we had now, which I

called it an isolated one day reversal

at the top, has never before occurred in

the Russell. It occurs in commodities

often enough has never occurred in the

Russell. And the reason it occurred this

time is because everyone's so enthusiast

enthusiastic about the Russell rather

than understanding I wrote this in my

reports. rather than understanding that

in nearly every bull market in history,

it peaks when the lagards start moving.

It doesn't peak when the previous uh

movers start moving. It peaks when the

lagards stop moving and the general they

call the generals and the troops. The

generals slow down then they let the

troops get killed. You understand?

>> And sorry, are are those are the lagards

would they be high beta, high risk, high

speculation stocks or they save stocks

like Coca-Cola?

>> Every market has a different lagard.

Yeah, sometimes low beta like Coca-Cola,

but sometimes it's uh the small cap like

the Russell 2000. In this case, the

Russell 2000 SP 600 did very little for

the last four years and all of a sudden

it starts surging into a pig and

everyone's claiming bullish bullish

bullish market breath breath is is

increasing and the market is broadening

and get out of your AI and just buy the

small caps and and I say no this happen

so typical at the top of a bull market

where the they call it the dogs, right?

the dogs start there's expression

something about the dogs lead the pack

you know

>> so yeah these are the dogs there I think

40% of the ro 2000 have no earnings you

know negative earnings so this is not a

quality indicator call it small cap

whatever they're great small caps and

they're are garbage small caps 2000

about 40% of it are small caps that have

really no earnings I just wanted to

point out what we saw which is this

amazing one day I there's another reason

to be bearish again there's another

reason in the back of my head why I'm

not I didn't use action to cover my

shorts. Even though there's some

historical instances, my models didn't

go long. I just gave instances where it

might be a bottom. I'm still, you know,

tops are very difficult to call and

bottom is difficult to call. And uh this

bottom after two and a half% decline in

the S&P, less than 3%. You know, it's

highly unlikely that it's a bottom. It

may be a sharp short correction that

ends. We'll see. I'm trying to tell you

that I'm not pounding the table. I'm not

sure. I'm trying to show you what we

tell our clients. We don't every day

have a strong opinion like most people

try to do. My strong opinion is that

we're in a bull market that began in

April and the market should continue

higher. It's projected to go higher

unless we see something different. We

haven't seen anything major different

except the VXN single in December and

these things like for example this gap

up in the Russell 2000. Let's see. Let's

let's get let's um let's um

let me show you the last buy signal we

ever got if if that's interesting to

you.

>> Absolutely.

>> I said the last signal we got was in

August 13th.

>> But you said you didn't like it.

>> I don't like it. I'll tell you why. Tell

you why. This signal occurs when the

Russell declines at least 5% bottomed

eight days ago meaning it didn't make a

lower low for eight days. So on on

August on August this first signal on

April 9th 2009 but this the latest

signal was August 13th 2025. In that

case the Russell was down like five and

a half% SP is down like less than 2%.

The rest of the market didn't pull back

the Russell pulled back held its low for

eight days and on the eighth day it it

exhibited an upside gap. Remember we

said upside gaps come a great after a

low and a bearish where you when after

market had an extended rally.

>> This is one of the cases where you get

an upside gap just eight days after a

low. Now the low was only 5%. In most of

these instances it wasn't just the

Russell down 5%. Many other indices were

down. In this case a only the Russell

was down 5%. Even the S&P 600 small cap

wasn't down 5%. And on the day a gap to

the upside. Let me just show you the

history of this one. This is it. It

signaled on April 9th, 2009, right after

a major bare market down. It was a 56%

bare market. It was right. It signaled

on October 14th, 2000. Also early in a

bull market signal on September 3rd,

2010 after 19% decline in the S&P. It

signal 2012. This is more of a after a

rally, but you did have a great low in

in 2011 at the lows. It signal here it

signal during during an up move in 2017.

And here it signaled um after the 220

lows at the at the June correction and

now it signal here. Now when I saw the

signal I I really I think it's a weak

signal but basically the S&P the S&P is

up 7.9% since then which is not a bad

move. Why do I say it's not a bad move?

It's only up 7.9% since August 13th

because I look at the history of the

other successful moves you see right

here. There's a table. This shows all

those nine instances when we got the

same signal. The 90 I'm showing the 90.

So, you're looking at the results for

the S&P even though the signal was for

the Russell.

>> Yes. Yes. Yes. I I showed my clients the

signal is for the Russell, but I trade

basically the models are built to call

the S&P. Okay. We're looking at Okay,

that's that's the point. But the point

over here is is that through 90 days,

the maximum gain was 6.72, which seems

pretty weak, right?

>> However, in 2016, the maximum gain

through 90 is only 2.83% and went on to

gain 15%. You see, in 2012, by day 90

through 90 days, it was only up 5.38%

and yet it gained a total of 22% within

a year. In 2009, it was up 5.33% through

day 90 and ended up 11.47. So, the fact

that we're only up 6.72%

is not really troubling. But this

doesn't go into my models. It's not

robust enough as far as I'm concerned.

So, I say I built models to call

markets, which we'll talk about for

retail and so on. This doesn't go into

my models. This is just something that I

show my clients uh just to show what's

going on in the market. I I did not put

much weight into this particular signal,

but we're on a buy signal off the lows

anyway, but I didn't put much weight

into the signal because the you're

looking for a gap a gap up after a

decline and only the Russell decline. It

was only a minor decline of 5%. And in

Russell, 5% decline is really just a

hiccup. It's just a random event.

Russell is far more volatile than the

S&P. So that's that one. Okay. Now,

there's something else here. This is

very important. Mhm.

>> This is very important because you would

think that I just show some signals with

some uh data and

you think I wouldn't even follow the

standard technical stuff but I actually

believe it or not I actually follow

standard technical stuff as well.

>> I know Milton I was looking at some of

the the data and all the materials you

sent almost all the time you have very

few charts all tables and data but this

time I said Milton making charts. What's

going on?

>> These charts are just reflecting where

the date is. But anyway, this is let me

show you this. We looked at every great

market peak since 1966. Okay? Every

market topped in the S&P. We're looking

for minimum decline of of 18% in the

S&P. So, for example, 1966 market peaked

on February 9th and declined 22%. Let's

see 1981. Uh the the the S&P peaked on

they're actually looking at the Dow

peaked in April 27th, declined 24%. NASA

peaked in April May 29th clined 28% and

so on. 87 SB peaked in August 25th,

declined 33%. You see, we're looking for

every decline of at least 18%. In 2000,

the S&P peaked on March 24th, down 49%.

NASDAQ peaked on March 10th, down 77,

and so on so forth.

>> And these aren't just highs, they're

highs that specifically were the peak

leading the final highs in the market.

>> Final highs, not just highs, final

>> final highs in the final highs in the

market for decline of of 18%. Final

final highs. Okay? Because most of the

time, sorry, but most of the time highs

are actually bullish, right?

>> Well, until it's bearish. Yeah. Most not

highs are bullish until they're bearish,

right? But yeah, because the market

makes a series of higher highs till its

final high. I mean, market make 50

higher highs till it's final high. So,

yes, if you look at it that way, of

course, highs are generally bullish.

It's questions what takes place at the

highs. For example, I'll give it I I I

highly red arrows. There are four pages

by the way data.

>> I highly like the 10day 10day trend. Now

I I hate to explain what trend is

because it's even I always found it

difficult to understand it. I now I

finally understand.

>> I prepared I looked it up before. It's

ratio of upside volume to ratio of

downside volume.

>> No, that's half the that's only half the

ratio. It's a ratio of the ratio of

upside down to downside volume to the

ratio of upside stocks to downside

stocks. It's a ratio of a ratio. In

other words, it's not enough to have

high upside volume. You have to have

high upside volume relative to the

number of stocks that went up. So for

example, if you have 10 to one upside

volume and you have 10 times as many

stocks up as down, the trend will be one

neutral. However, if you had 10 times to

one upside volume and only had a 1 ratio

of up stocks to down stocks, you see

then the trade will be 0 50. That would

be a very very low ratio because the the

upside volume is overwhelming to such an

extent that it it takes the ratio ratio

down. But any event, I don't want to get

into the trend because I'll have to get

into everything and it's going to take

too long. But the 10day trade in the S&

NASDAQ at the day of the peak of January

27th of the S&P was 0.76.

Now this exactly the median you see at

previous market peaks. It's 0.78. You

see right at what you normally see at a

market. Now I'm sure all of pages are

all yellow. When they're not when

they're red when any column is red, it

means they're not consistent with what

you've seen in a previous market peak.

Everything is consistent but many of

them are at the medians. For example,

25-day New York Stock Exchange trend at

0.98. The median is 0.96. You see?

>> Mhm.

>> Let's look at this one. 10day advanced

declines in in the NASDAQ. The New York

Stock Exchange is 1.07 over1. The median

at major peaks is 1.09 over1. We're at

the median. What about the number of 52-

week highs in the S&P on December?

January 23 45, which seems like a high

number, but in fact, the median peak at

final market peaks is 47 right there.

And I can go on and on and on. Let me

find an interesting one. Let's look at

rates of change because that's really

important. Let's look at the uh

>> at the the six-month rate of change in

the S&P. You know, the S&P has only

gained 9.22%

over the last six months, even though

it's up 37% since April.

It's slowed down. The median is 10.08%

at the top. Let's look at the NASDAQ.

You know, the NASDAQ is only up 12.46%

over the last six months, even though

it's up 45% off the lows. But the median

at a peak is 13.19. Let's look at the

smaller caps because we're all talking

about small caps. The the S&P 400 is

midcap. It's six month is 8.5% but the

median is 10.94. It's below the median

gain. It's more it's weaker than you'd

expect at a top. You see? So these are

>> tell me about a threshold and what that

means.

>> Threshold means if it be above this

level, it would turn red. The six month

rate of change in the NASDAQ would be

above 81.11. It's not totally

inconsistent with what you see at a

market peak. You've never seen that

strength at a market peak. Well, let's

look at the number of highs in the S&P

because that actually helped me out in

2020 2023.

Uh let me show you that S&P page one 52

week highs. The threshold is 87. There's

a period during 19 2024

where most of these things were yellow

but the the number of highs were were

were about 92.

>> I think you may have talked to me about

that Milton. Yeah.

>> Which told me that that's not the market

generally. You wouldn't expect that to

be the market peak because you never saw

a market peak with that many new highs.

Okay, this is showing something else we

look at.

>> You just went through a lot of the data,

but I didn't hear a lot of conclusions.

What What were some of the

>> conclusions? Conclusion here is

>> Yeah. Yeah. If anyone's telling you, if

anyone's telling you that the market

action is inconsistent with actions seen

at previous market peaks, or if anyone

tells you that Federal Reserve action is

inconsistent with what we've seen in the

previous market peaks, or if anyone

tells you that the rate of change of

interest rates of the long bond is

inconsistent with what you've seen at

market peaks, I would show them my tech

technicals at the high and show. All of

these things are in my are in my table

and all these things are consistent with

what you've seen at prior market peaks.

>> You're saying that you're seeing signs

of market.

>> You're saying that no one can argue that

the market can't peak now based on

technical data. They can argue that

we're not at a peak, but they can't

argue that we can't peak. In other

words, sometimes, very often that, you

know, half his data is red, meaning the

market is showing signs that it's not

peaking.

>> And red in this instance is good. In the

same way red in China means stock market

goes up.

>> No no yeah red means that it's not

consistent with

>> with with what you see in the previous

peaks. I mean a good example would be

the five day the fiveday breath. Like

for example let me show let's get the

fiveday breath. Fiveday advance

declines. You see the 1.33.

If it's above 2.3 2.34 you're not going

to see a market peak. It's going to be a

thrust. Only once did you see it above

two. That's back in 1976. Now 196, just

to let you know, was one of the

strangest markets because the the S&P

peaked, the Dow peaked, they they

climbed about 18%. At the same time, the

American Stock Exchange, which I don't

think exists anymore, which was an which

was the small cap index of the day, was

in a major bull market gaining 30%. It

was mainly in oil stocks, but the oil

stocks and the S&P were also rallying

while the S&P was declining. So

therefore at the peak you saw the at

that peak you saw the oil stock surging

and you saw 2.34 to1 um AD line at the

peak but generally you see at the peak

the AD line is uh is look at it you

never see it even above 1.75 we're at

1.33 median is 1.18 but let me you had

1.66 66 to 2011 top also difficult top

but you 1.58 1.52 and 89 and 90 okay

this is just one example 5day advanced

decline we have a 5day ad line we use as

a breath rust you know we have readings

of three four five to one over fiveday

basis which gives us buy signals but to

tell you you can't expect the market to

peak even at a 2 to1 level you wouldn't

expect the market we're not there now

you understand

>> if you had 90 new 52 week highs in the

S&P when you last saw the high and this

only looks at the days of highs So if

January 27th could have been the final

high because the data is consistent. It

doesn't mean it is the final high. It

means it could be the final high and

we're looking at you look at as you can

see we look at many things you know we

don't just hang our hat on one

indicator. Yes.

>> Okay let's see what else you want. Well

you you talk to talk about many things

to talk about.

>> Milton we'll return to stocks and we

will I promise our audience just get

into the commodities gold silver maybe a

little oil but also particularly

Bitcoin. But Milton, I just want to take

a lot of the work that you've been

showing is for institutional clients,

some of the biggest and most successful

hedge funds in the world. You recently

launched a product that is for

individual investors. You know, I

include myself in that category.

>> What is different about this product?

Tell us a little bit about the value

that you you think it could provide.

Okay, I'm going to take it step by step,

but basically before I even show any

charts or show any data, individual

investors find it very very difficult

because they read the news and they hear

the news and they try to f follow

financial reports and they even listen

to great podcasts like Jack Farley's

great podcast. They always get

conflicting opinions. They don't know

what to decide for themselves. They're

they're out of the market when the

market's rallying. They get into the

market close to the top. you know, it's

very difficult for an individual

investor and I wanted to create I I

spent 10 years working on models. I

really didn't plan to build a newsletter

for retail investors. I really just to

wanted to write a book and when I as you

did my research,

>> my research was getting so robust and it

fascinated me because I couldn't believe

what I was discovering in the market. Be

honest with you, I I if 10 years ago I

would someone would have told me by the

time you finish you're going to have

2,800 indicators. You're going to have

about 600 indicators that have a perfect

track record. meaning without a pullback

on a bicycle with pullbacks of less than

three and a half% you know I wouldn't

have believed it's even possible most

indicators work on percentage you know

work 65% of the time you're happy it

works 75% of the time you're ecstatic

indicators that work historically 100%

of the time and they're not madeup

indicators not back fit indicators we're

just looking for rare data that takes

place at lows the problem is most people

who look at market lows only see what's

obvious to them they open the chart they

see a moving average there are many many

indicators as I mentioned earlier saw

they're not obvious vious to the most

people not even to most technicians

because they don't follow it on it's not

computerized just as long as we're

talking I have I have one of my uh one

of my uh spreadsheets open so here you

see for example this my this is today's

spreadsheet that I I get my indicators

on

>> oh wow

>> so so for example today I saw the VXN

yesterday VXN was up 10% over two days

VIX VXN was 35% in three days these

indexes had the highest three-day volume

in 200 days 200 days 20 you see that I

get these indicator ators. This these

are not signals. These are just basic

indicators.

>> But I want to point out I'll go to the

column where you show no signal. You see

column says no signal right here. Yeah.

>> You see no signal.

>> Just want to show you uh how many

indicators we have. So you go to no

signal.

>> 17,000 19,000 20,000

>> be this soon. We'll be there soon. You

see we have

>> 22,000 indicators that have not signaled

today. Instead

>> we you have 23,000 that did not signal.

2029. No, it's actually 20 20,310 that

have not signaled today. Right. Okay.

>> Right. So, the point is we're looking

for these things to signal. We're

looking for rare signals. We're not

looking for the kind of things people

look at every day. Market's up 1%,

markets up 2%. You know, we're looking

for things that don't take place too

often. But when they do take place,

they're telling you something. Got it?

>> So, sometimes the VXN gaining 35% in

three days tells you something as I

pointed out, but sometimes it's not

sufficient. That's why we're not ready

to cover our shorts today. But at the

other end by tomorrow today's action may

change things. You know it's a very very

big bullish day. Okay let's get the

let's let's go back to to to to the

retail letter when what so I wanted to

create something for retail people. I

wanted to create something well when I

say wanted to create something I was

only able to create it after I did all

my work. I realized that the data I'm

getting allows me to create something

that retail investors never had before.

And that is, you know, we're told that

if you miss the greatest days of the

market, you know, only five days a year,

you'll

>> Yeah. I Yeah.

>> Right. So, if you're going to try to

time the market, it's likely you're

going to miss those great days. You know

why? Not because um by chance you'll

miss those five great days because those

five great days generally take place

early on in a bull market. They don't

take place middle of a bull market. like

the 9% gain you had in um on April in

April 9th was early in a bull market,

right? See that?

>> So so so mostly most often the great

gains take place early in a move. You

miss get if you don't get it early, you

wait for the moving averages to cross.

You wait till until the Fed eases 15

times, you're late and you miss the

great move. So on the other hand, I

realized in doing my work that it's

difficult to call tops. In other words,

as they say, the recession indicator

called uh called 18 of the last six bull

markets. In other words,

tops are more difficult to to call. So,

this is what I did. It's it's it's

different. We decide we're not going to

call market tops at all. We're going to

be long the market until it declines.

For the model purpose, I used 8%, but

for in talking purposes, I say seven or

8%. But for the the data you're going to

see is all based on a decline of a

minimum of 8%. Okay? So we said like

this, we're going to buy the first buy

signal that's generated. Now the

institutions see our hundreds of

signals. We keep, you know, we're

charging our retail people $10 a month.

Institutions pay as much as 12,000 a

month. So we're not going to we're not

going to um give give the data away. But

we're going to give the the retail

indicators a buy signal at a first at a

first signal at a first new buy signal

after they're out of the market. So So

what gets them out of the market? Say

they got a buy sale on April 4th, they'd

still be long because the market had

never declined 8%. Right? The maximum

decline was 5% and change few days after

the loan. So, we're going to say you're

going to buy the market, hold on, and

you're going to hold on until we get you

out. We're going to get you out after

about a decline of about 8%, which is

the model. Why 8%. Very simply,

an investor could tolerate an 8% decline

if he's already made 30% on the up move.

Number one. Secondly, he could have

target 8% decline if the market's going

to decline 44% or 35% or 26% or 19%.

He's happy to have missed the bulk of

the down move even though he caught the

first 8% of the down move. Got it?

Number one, we have we had 50 roughly 55

buy signals since 1957. Remember, I'm

only showing you the initial buy signal

after after we're out of the market. I'm

not showing institutional wise is

thousands of buy signals for the retail

model. We have a buy signal. We had

about 55. It says 55 buys and sells

since 1957. You see? And this is a chart

showing all the buys. The last buy I

highlighted April 4th, 2025. The

market's up u 38% since then. Right

since April 4th. Now,

these are the buys and based on signals,

which I'll show you some of the signals.

However,

what are the cells? When do you get out?

So, you're going to get out. We don't

know what to sell. We're not smart

enough to call the cells because sells

are very difficult. Tops are difficult

to call. We're not gonna anticipate a

bare market. We're not going to say get

out now at the tire of the market

because they're bare market. You say,

you know, my my my my clients, you know,

my retail clients, you know, my

individual investors who don't have time

to sit at a computer all day and watch

the market. They rather be retired. They

rather build a retirement account and

work in their in their shops or work in

their on their computers or whatever

they do and rather not watch the market.

We'll tell you to get out when the