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Trump Promised to Be Tough on China. Xi Outplayed Him. | China Decode

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Trump Promised to Be Tough on China. Xi Outplayed Him. | China Decode

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912 segments

0:00

For the first time ever, the Chinese

0:02

leader had the upper hand in this

0:05

summit. And the potentially

0:07

game-changing outcome was that the US

0:10

and China are now trying to work

0:12

together to put into place what China

0:15

calls a constructive China US

0:18

relationship of strategic stability.

0:26

>> Welcome to China Decode. I'm Alice Han.

0:29

>> And I'm James King.

0:30

>> In today's episode of China Decode,

0:32

we're discussing the postgame analysis

0:35

of the Trump Xi Summit, what Apple,

0:37

Tesla, and Nvidia stand to gain after

0:40

the trip, and the infusion of technology

0:43

and creativity that Chinese companies

0:45

are bringing to this year's GAN Film

0:48

Festival in France. That's all coming

0:50

up. But first, let's do a quick check-in

0:52

with how the Chinese markets are

0:54

starting the week. On Monday, the

0:56

Shanghai Composite Index ticked up 0.2%.

0:59

Standout stocks including Narrow

1:01

Technology, a semiconductor equipment

1:03

firm up 4.9% and Hagong Tech up 10% with

1:08

positive signals through the AI and

1:10

semiconductor sectors. The Shenzhen

1:12

component rose 0.3%.

1:15

Retail sales sharply eased to 0.2%

1:18

year-on-year growth in April, marking

1:20

the weakest growth since December 2022.

1:23

Industrial output also slowed to 4.1%

1:26

yearonear, the softest pace since July

1:29

2023.

1:30

All right, let's get into it. We're

1:32

still decompressing from last week's big

1:34

summit between US President Donald Trump

1:36

and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Both

1:39

leaders left the event after trading

1:41

praise and touting massive progress in

1:44

stabilizing what they agreed is the

1:46

world's most important bilateral

1:48

relationship. Trump hailed fantastic

1:51

trade deals and said a lot of different

1:53

problems quote unquote were settled.

1:56

Although no major agreements or

1:57

breakthroughs were announced before he

2:00

departed Beijing, Taiwan and Iran loomed

2:03

large over the talks, but much of the

2:04

trip seems centered around economic and

2:07

business related progress between the

2:09

two nations. James, we have been talking

2:12

about this at length. We had a Substack

2:14

live video about this as well. How do

2:16

you perceive the this summit? What are

2:19

the main takeaways? And what do you

2:21

think we should expect after this main

2:23

summit?

2:24

>> Yeah, I find myself slightly at odds

2:26

with I think conventional wisdom on

2:28

this. Uh, a lot of the news reporting

2:30

has called this things like the

2:32

stalemate summit. Uh, others have called

2:34

it a nothing burger, but I think those

2:37

are very much missing the mark. Uh, to

2:40

me this summit was important. There was

2:43

one what I would call historic aspect

2:46

and there was one potentially

2:48

gamechanging outcome. I think the

2:51

historic aspect was that from my

2:53

perspective for the first time ever the

2:56

Chinese leader had the upper hand in

2:58

this summit and the potentially

3:01

game-changing outcome was that the US

3:03

and China are now trying to work

3:06

together to put into place what China

3:08

calls a constructive China US

3:12

relationship of strategic stability. I

3:16

know that's a bit of a mouthful, but to

3:18

me that means they're trying to climb

3:21

down from a situation in which China and

3:24

the US are constantly adversarial in

3:27

their relationship and moving towards a

3:30

much more stable relationship. And I

3:32

think one of the pointers towards this

3:35

is that Trump invited Cining to visit

3:38

the US in September this year and Sigin

3:41

Ping has agreed to go. So there's a

3:43

measure of continuity there. Um I think

3:47

quite a lot of people will be will be

3:49

wondering whether or not this really was

3:51

a historic summit. Um and uh in the

3:55

sense that I I reckon China had the

3:57

upper hand. I think you can see that

4:00

from the fact that Trump was trying to

4:02

be as friendly as possible. He said to

4:05

Cining, "You are a great leader." He

4:07

said, "It's an honor to be with you.

4:09

It's an honor to be your friend." The

4:12

relationship between China and the US is

4:14

going to be better than ever before. And

4:16

I think one piece of essential

4:19

background has changed a lot in the way

4:22

these two countries see each other. And

4:24

that is China's enduring chokeold over

4:29

rare earth and critical minerals

4:31

supplies. These rare earths and these

4:33

critical minerals are essential to make

4:36

US weapons. The Pentagon needs them. US

4:40

arms manufacturers need them and so do

4:43

all the big US tech companies, many of

4:45

which were on the plane with Trump. The

4:48

other thing is, of course, that the US

4:51

needs China to some extent to help

4:54

resolve the war in Iran. We don't know

4:57

whether China will play ball in that

4:59

regard, but uh it's it seems clear that

5:03

Washington thinks it might need China.

5:05

So that's why I come to the conclusion

5:08

that this was the first US China summit

5:10

ever where China appeared to have the

5:14

upper hand. The second point about

5:15

stability, I guess we can we can

5:18

discuss, Alice, but how did you see it?

5:20

I mean, how how did you see the

5:22

interplay? Did you think it was

5:23

important or did you think it was a a

5:25

nothing burger as some people say? Well,

5:27

just very very quickly, I've been

5:29

watching all the videos in terms of

5:30

their interaction and I think uh

5:33

President Xi knew how to play that

5:35

relationship very very well. You he was

5:37

speaking to the right audience when in

5:40

his banquet speech, the state banquet

5:42

speech over dinner, he said that the

5:45

great rejuvenation of the nation, which

5:46

is a big slogan of his, can go

5:48

handinhand with make America great

5:50

again. And I thought it was very smart

5:53

and apt of him to link these two

5:57

narratives that these countries have

5:58

about their greatness together to say

6:01

that effectively he and Trump are uh you

6:04

know singing from the same choir sheet

6:06

and effectively I think it is reviving

6:08

this G2 relationship that China wants to

6:11

see and the global stage. But to bring

6:13

it slightly away from the personal, uh,

6:16

I want to sort of talk a little bit

6:18

about what has happened in the last few

6:20

days since the summit, since Trump has

6:21

left. And it's always very helpful to

6:24

compare notes in terms of the two sides

6:26

of readouts, Washington versus Beijing.

6:29

Washington's White House readout made it

6:32

very clear that China had agreed to a

6:34

number of things which still the Chinese

6:37

haven't confirmed. So just to run

6:38

through them very very quickly, the

6:40

Chinese according to the White House

6:41

have agreed to purchase 200 Boeing

6:44

aircraft. Now there is slightly down

6:45

from the 500 that is what is originally

6:47

speculated. China has also agreed

6:50

according to the White House to purchase

6:51

at least 17 US billion per year in a

6:55

products in 2026, 2027 and 2028. And

6:59

that's on top of the soybean bean deal

7:01

that it agreed to late last October. And

7:04

China is going to renew the expired

7:06

licenses for the 400 or so US beef

7:09

facilities. They're going to work with

7:10

regulators to import more American beef

7:13

and similarly American poultry and that

7:16

the Chinese will help uh the US address

7:20

its concerns with regards to critical

7:22

minerals and rare earth supply

7:23

shortages. So some of these rare like

7:26

scandium, neodymium which have do have

7:29

um relevance for uh defense related

7:31

applications from the Chinese side and I

7:34

think this is interesting. There is uh

7:36

an acknowledgement of the US uh

7:39

purchases the purchases of US Boeing

7:41

aircraft. There is an acknowledgement in

7:43

terms of a resumption of some level of

7:45

beef imports uh as well as a imports not

7:49

but no specification as to the size and

7:52

the and the scale. Uh and then I thought

7:54

this was interesting. The Chinese

7:55

readout suggested that the two sides had

7:57

agreed that they would expand two-way

8:00

trade including in agricultural products

8:02

and that they would cut tariffs in

8:04

mutually sensitive areas. It suggests to

8:08

me as is often the case uh that the two

8:11

sides have very different

8:12

interpretations or takeaways from the

8:15

meeting. the American side is very keen

8:17

to help American business in particular

8:19

American a American aviation company in

8:23

the form of Boeing and and to help um

8:26

you know plug the holes in the supply

8:27

chains when it comes to critical

8:28

minerals on the Chinese side I feel is

8:31

that they're more interested in the two

8:34

boards the board of investment and board

8:35

of trade and and in you know renewing

8:38

and expanding those two dialogues in

8:40

terms of a reducing tariffs which

8:43

obviously didn't come out of the summit

8:45

and B expanding the opportunity set for

8:47

Chinese companies to set up a shop and

8:50

invest in American manufacturing. What

8:53

is also interesting is what is missing

8:54

from the two readouts. So there's no

8:56

discussion about chip export bans being

8:58

wound down uh and similarly no uh

9:01

discussion about the tariff levels.

9:03

Right? So that's what's happened in the

9:05

last few days. Uh keen to get your take

9:08

on it. But I think we can I at least

9:11

from my vantage point Trump got the some

9:13

of the business deals that he wanted.

9:15

The Chinese got further summitry and an

9:19

expansion of discussion around some of

9:21

the more strategic areas like tariffs

9:24

like investment and maybe in the future

9:27

chips.

9:27

>> I completely agree Alice. I think you

9:29

know after these summits it's always

9:32

really rewarding to look at the contrast

9:36

of the two communicates and uh these two

9:39

communicates contrast quite a bit as

9:41

you've just mentioned I think the key

9:44

contrast is something that you've

9:45

already uh mentioned a little bit and

9:47

that is the rare earths the Chinese did

9:50

not mention rare earths or critical

9:52

minerals at all and yet the US put this

9:55

pretty much you know at the top of the

9:58

of one of leading sections in the White

10:01

House fact sheet. Um, this to me means

10:05

that first of all, as we mentioned, the

10:07

US really wants these rare earths. They

10:10

are essential for the production of

10:12

American weapons. Um, but it also means

10:15

I think uh that the Chinese are holding

10:17

back. They are I'm not saying the

10:20

Chinese will not supply these rare

10:22

earths, but they're going to use them as

10:23

leverage. They're going to use them as

10:25

bargaining chips to ensure that the US

10:28

does more on China's big ask which

10:31

Cining was very clear about right at the

10:33

beginning of the summit and that is

10:35

Taiwan. Exactly what China wants from

10:38

the US on Taiwan. We don't really know.

10:40

But if past is prologue, then certainly

10:44

China will be hoping that the US either

10:47

reduce sharply or scrap or postpone some

10:50

of the big US arms sales to Taiwan or

10:53

maybe in the future the US works towards

10:56

coming up with a form of words that more

11:00

closely reflects China's view of its

11:03

disagreements with Taiwan, particularly

11:05

on the issue of sovereignty. So I think

11:08

that China is using the rare earth choke

11:12

hold to try to you know put pressure on

11:15

the US to get something on its most

11:17

important topic. Um now on the issue as

11:21

you've mentioned on the the trade and

11:24

investment councils I do think that this

11:26

is quite key as I said at the top there

11:28

is this uh Chinese phrase of putting the

11:32

relationship onto a new footing that of

11:34

a constructive uh relationship of

11:38

strategic stability and I think these

11:41

two uh councils as China called them or

11:44

as the US is calling them the US China

11:47

board of trade and the US China Board of

11:50

Investment. I think these are crucial to

11:53

this um initiative of trying to reduce

11:58

some of the differences, reduce some of

12:00

the tension that we see between the US

12:02

and China on trade and investment

12:04

issues. And uh some people are poo

12:06

pooing this. Some people are saying this

12:08

is not important. It's just a form of

12:09

words. There's no sincerity behind it. I

12:12

completely disagree. I think this is

12:14

important and I think both sides want to

12:17

do this because both sides need

12:20

something from the other. In the case of

12:22

the US, it's rare earth to make weapons

12:26

and in the case of China, it's some

12:29

movement from the US on Taiwan aside

12:31

from other issues of course. So I think

12:34

that there is impetus for the two to try

12:38

to work together to reduce their

12:40

differences.

12:40

>> Really interesting. And and just to add

12:42

one final word on some of these

12:45

geopolitical issues, Taiwan and Iran,

12:47

there wasn't apart from the Chinese

12:49

statement about their red line when it

12:51

comes to Taiwan. There wasn't any major

12:53

readout about the Taiwan issue.

12:55

Similarly, there has been no indication

12:56

as of yet as to whether or not uh Trump

12:59

and the American administration will go

13:01

ahead with the 11 billion uh arm sales

13:04

agreed to last December to Taiwan. Uh

13:08

and similarly on the Iran issue, we

13:10

heard a China that was very mum and

13:12

reluctant to say anything about Iran. Uh

13:14

but the US was keen to document the fact

13:17

that China and the US agree that peace

13:22

uh in the Middle East and a resolution

13:24

to the straight of Hormuz is in each

13:25

other's best interests. But I I come

13:28

away from this summit feeling like a

13:29

nothing burger on the geopolitical

13:31

issues. Right.

13:32

>> Yeah. I think I think on Iran it was the

13:34

dog that didn't bark. Um the the US was

13:37

pretty clear. Trump even said in front

13:40

of Cinping in televised remarks that the

13:42

US was determined that Iran would not

13:45

develop a nuclear weapon. The Chinese

13:47

side was completely silent about that

13:50

both in that meeting between C and Trump

13:53

but also in the in the following

13:55

statements after the summit. So I think

13:58

we can take that as a point of

14:00

disagreement or at least China is not

14:03

willing to say anything about Iran and

14:06

nuclear weapons at this point. So it

14:08

doesn't sound to me like there was a

14:10

great meeting of minds on Iran. It could

14:13

also be the case that China is holding

14:15

this in reserve to use it again as

14:17

leverage uh in the future.

14:19

>> Yeah. So it seems like they've agreed to

14:21

disagree but put those two issues in the

14:23

back burner. If you missed it, we did

14:25

our first Substack live stream last

14:27

week, breaking down all things Trump

14:29

Summit, joined by Kevin Shu, author of

14:31

the interconnected Substack. To check

14:34

out all the insights on the meeting,

14:35

robotics, Taiwan, and more, watch the

14:38

replay on Substack now. And we're going

14:40

to be doing more of these exclusive live

14:42

streams for our subscribers. So, make

14:44

sure you get signed up to ProfG Plus at

14:47

chin decode.profia.com.

14:50

We'll be back with more on the CEO

14:52

presence at the summit after a quick

14:53

break. Stay with us.

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16:09

Welcome back. We haven't touched much

16:12

yet on the economic and commercial

16:14

aspects of the Trump X she summit, but

16:16

it was notable that over a dozen US

16:18

executives were part of the delegation

16:20

to China, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk

16:24

and Nvidia CEO Jensen Hang, who both

16:26

traveled with the US president on Air

16:28

Force One. The CEOs became a bit of the

16:31

main story themselves. Here's Jensen

16:33

Huang enjoying himself around town in

16:35

Beijing after the official meeting

16:37

concluded. James, I actually have to say

16:40

that I've been doomcrolling a lot of the

16:42

videos of Jensen Huang going on his

16:44

little food foodie journey throughout

16:46

Beijing. He's eating a lot of things

16:48

like mishing, which is a type of, you

16:51

know, bubble iced tea. He's also eating,

16:54

which is a type of Chinese noodle. Uh,

16:57

and I see him eating some squid

16:59

tentacles. Um, having some fermented

17:02

soybean milk. And and what was actually

17:04

interesting to me is to see ju just the

17:07

level of affection that he has amongst

17:09

everyday Chinese on the street. You can

17:11

see that in the way they interact with

17:12

him and even in the way that the stores

17:15

immediately after he's come almost as if

17:17

to bless each store, they have a photo

17:18

of him or some new drink or some product

17:21

that is named after him. That I think

17:24

suggests to me that Jensen Huang's charm

17:26

offensive has worked out. He's probably

17:28

been the most effective uh CEO in the

17:30

delegation in terms of charming uh the

17:33

Chinese. Uh and you know, some netizens

17:36

have been commenting on the fact that

17:37

he's been the hardest working of the

17:39

delegation because he's been here the

17:41

longest and doing his homework on China,

17:43

which I thought was uh pretty apppropo,

17:46

but it speaks to a I think a broader

17:48

insight, which is that Jensen really

17:51

needs to get the Chinese on board.

17:53

They're the hold up when it comes to the

17:55

import of H200s. The US has just

17:58

announced that 10 Chinese suppliers can

18:01

get access to H200's from Nvidia

18:04

including Alibaba and Bite Dance,

18:06

Lenovo. But the real bottleneck is

18:09

Beijing, right? So I wanted to ask you a

18:12

broader question as to who were the

18:14

winners and losers, but in particular

18:15

the winners that you think at the CEO

18:18

delegation and what does that say about

18:21

American business interest in China? I I

18:24

really like your descriptions of Jensen

18:26

Huang going around Beijing eating all

18:28

kinds of uh Chinese food. I think uh he

18:31

looked like he was enjoying himself. And

18:33

did you see that clip of him when he was

18:36

walking around Shushahai in central

18:37

Beijing, which is a beautiful scenic

18:39

lake area. I was there about a month and

18:42

a half ago myself. And a Chinese

18:44

reporter rushed up to him and said, "How

18:46

do you like China?" And he said, "I love

18:48

China." I thought I mean it was just a

18:50

it was just a oneliner but it it it

18:52

really said a lot to me. He is the $5

18:55

trillion man. Um I'm talking of course

18:58

about the Nvidia uh well uh market

19:01

capitalization of Nvidia shares hovering

19:04

around5 trillion right now. So he is the

19:08

US's biggest businessman and he's

19:10

actually uh well he runs the world's

19:13

most valuable company. So it is a a a

19:16

big barometer of US China relations as

19:19

to what's happening with Nvidia chip

19:21

sales to China. And I thought, you know,

19:24

he came out with a phrase in an

19:26

interview recently. He said, you know,

19:29

uh, Nvidia had a 90 some odd percent of

19:34

the world's market share. But today in

19:37

China, we have dropped to zero. And this

19:40

is obviously because of the US bans on

19:44

on Nvidia selling advanced chips to

19:47

China. You've just mentioned the fact

19:49

that as we understand it about 10

19:52

Chinese companies have received US

19:55

commerce department authorization uh to

19:58

buy Nvidia's H200 artificial

20:01

intelligence chips. Uh but so far we

20:04

haven't seen any shipments to China and

20:07

it's not clear whether or not the

20:10

Chinese are allowing their companies to

20:13

buy these chips. It's possible that

20:16

China will hold out on this and just not

20:18

allow uh Chinese companies to buy Nvidia

20:21

chips. Or maybe China's holding out for

20:24

the even more advanced Blackwell chips

20:27

also made by Nvidia holding out for them

20:30

to be exported to China. So we just

20:33

don't know at the the situation at the

20:35

moment. But one thing is very clear that

20:38

is that Nvidia the world's most valuable

20:41

company is having a really rough time

20:44

trying to sell its env advanced chips to

20:47

China and that's why Jensen Huang was on

20:50

such a charm offensive and as you said

20:53

certainly an effective charm offensive

20:55

when it comes to popular opinions of him

20:58

uh in China. I would say it seems to me

21:01

vitally important for Nvidia's prospects

21:04

as a company as to whether or not it can

21:07

actually start selling its Invad chips

21:09

again to China.

21:10

>> You say he's a 5 trillion man and just

21:12

to get a sense of how important the

21:14

Chinese market is. You know, by some

21:16

estimates we'll have a $5 trillion

21:18

market for robotics worldwide by 2030.

21:21

China dominates well over half of all

21:24

robotics is done by China. So if you

21:27

just think about what that could mean

21:30

for Nvidia, I mean it could be at least

21:32

another trillion dollar that he could

21:33

add to his name if he can get the

21:35

Chinese market because you know as we

21:37

discussed previously James, China's

21:39

going all in on robotics and there's a

21:42

lot in terms of um chip technology that

21:45

Nvidia can bring to bear for that

21:47

robotics uh roll out

21:49

>> completely. Um, so you know, whatever

21:52

time and effort um, Jensen Hang is

21:55

spending on his charm offensive could be

21:57

repaid massively. Uh, depending on what

22:00

the Chinese government decides to do. I

22:03

mean, the important thing about this now

22:04

is that I don't think it the ball is in

22:06

America's court. I think the ball is now

22:09

in the court of the Chinese regulators

22:12

whether they allow Nvidia uh, chips to

22:14

come in because China in the meantime

22:16

has had all kinds of workarounds. The

22:18

main ones are Huawei's Ascend series of

22:22

chips being put onto superclusters,

22:25

these massive racks of of 15,000 chips

22:28

or half a million chips or next year

22:30

we're told a million chips to try to

22:32

work around the need that China

22:35

currently has for very advanced chips

22:37

such as the ones that Nvidia makes. So,

22:40

so that's really something to watch. You

22:42

mentioned Elon Musk as well. Again, you

22:45

know, Elon Musk obviously a massively

22:48

powerful businessman in the US and and

22:51

you know, with an extraordinary global

22:52

stature, but in China, he needs China

22:56

very much indeed. At the moment, he's

22:58

seeking clearance from Chinese

23:01

regulators to expand the adoption of

23:03

Tesla's full self-driving assistance

23:06

system. So, that's one thing he needs.

23:09

He's also hoping to buy apparently about

23:12

$2.9 billion US worth of equipment uh

23:16

for manufacturing solar panels from

23:19

Chinese suppliers. So he needs China for

23:22

that too. You know, I I thought it was

23:25

interesting. I'm sure you've seen the

23:26

videos of of uh Elon Musk and his young

23:29

son uh going through I think it was the

23:32

Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Um

23:34

that was kind of touching on his behalf.

23:37

I guess that was a bit of a charm

23:38

offensive, too, would you say?

23:40

>> Well, I'm not sure if Elon was intending

23:43

that to be a charm offensive. I don't

23:45

think he's as deliberate as Jensen

23:47

Huang. Uh, but my funny observation was

23:50

when he was at the state banquet and

23:52

Leen, the the CEO and founder of Xiaomi,

23:55

uh, you know, which is a major

23:56

smartphone company, but now they're

23:58

expanding into cars and and and

24:00

elsewhere, uh, he wanted to take a

24:02

selfie with Elon, and Elon obviously

24:04

wasn't keen. You can see that on on his

24:06

face. And then the other thing that I

24:07

thought was really interesting uh was

24:10

that the only woman sat at that table

24:11

which was the main table uh where the

24:14

leaders were at uh was Joel Trenfe who

24:17

is the CEO and founder of lens

24:20

technology and she was the only woman

24:22

there. She's a powerhouse and really

24:24

built um this company from scratch and

24:26

they build the, you know, advanced

24:30

screens that are used in all iPhones,

24:32

tablets, but also in Tesla dashboards as

24:35

well. So, you know, I thought that that

24:38

was super interesting that she was there

24:40

because remember it's not just these US

24:43

CEOs that are trying to sell into the

24:44

Chinese market. They're also using China

24:46

for production, right? So, as we

24:48

discussed previously, China's share in

24:50

in global iPhone production is around

24:52

74%. That's still pretty pretty

24:55

significant. It means three out of every

24:57

four on average iPhones are still made

24:59

in in China. Uh and and Tesla still

25:02

requires a lot of Chinese manufacturing

25:04

inputs. I I saw and toured a place um

25:08

near um Hungjol where they specialize in

25:11

these uh advanced light but also uh

25:15

durable tires that are used in in

25:17

Teslas. Uh and apparently Tesla in its

25:20

newest models is unable to find anything

25:22

comparable to this kind of special alloy

25:24

wheel that is manufactured in Hul. So,

25:28

you know, I think that's worth

25:30

mentioning is that for a lot of these

25:32

CEOs, they they don't just want to sell

25:34

to the market. They also want to be able

25:36

to ensure that they can still get access

25:38

to Chinese inputs, intermediate inputs.

25:42

>> Yeah, I really like the way you've

25:44

highlighted Joe Fay. I think that is

25:46

such an important example. It shows

25:49

first of all, you know, the supremacy of

25:52

the Chinese supply chain. the fact that

25:53

China can make pretty much anything uh

25:57

of very high quality, cheaper and faster

25:59

than anywhere else in the world. But

26:01

also I I like the Joe Fay story because

26:05

she built herself up from nothing. She

26:08

started life as a migrant worker working

26:10

on the production line. She had almost

26:11

no formal education. She was when she

26:14

was a worker, she studied at night to

26:16

became self-taught to teach herself

26:18

enough technology to become, you know,

26:21

um in in the technology industry as she

26:24

is now. I mean, it's amazing. She is

26:27

really the embodiment of the American

26:29

dream as well as the Chinese dream. You

26:32

know, she made it from nothing. And I

26:35

think that's uh that that's such an

26:37

important um example of what China's all

26:39

about. Right at the other end of the

26:41

spectrum, just to to round it out, I was

26:44

interested by Goldman Sachs. Goldman

26:47

Sachs is a different case. I'd say in

26:50

the case of Jensen Hang and Elon Musk,

26:52

they both need a lot from China. Goldman

26:56

Sachs also needs a lot from China, but

26:59

it's playing a uh another charm

27:01

offensive game. It recently issued a dim

27:05

sum bond. Uh these are China's offshore

27:08

bonds. It's borrowed about 47 billion

27:12

remimb in remimb debt so far in 2026.

27:18

This is going to ingratiate it to the

27:20

Chinese government quite a bit. And as

27:22

far as we understand, Goldman needs

27:24

access to the Chinese market. Uh it

27:28

wants access to the retail and

27:30

institutional investors to manage their

27:33

wealth and assets. And of course given

27:36

China's rise and its uh yearly GDP

27:39

growth, the number of uh of investors

27:42

are growing sharply. So Goldman has also

27:45

got its its eyes on the prize. It's

27:48

trying to do the right thing by the

27:50

Chinese government, do the right thing

27:51

by the Chinese regulators so that it

27:53

gets the approval it needs to appeal to

27:57

more and more Chinese investors.

27:59

>> Yeah. And and probably on the other side

28:01

of this uh is Meta, right? Meta tried to

28:04

buy Manis which was this agentic AI

28:07

platform originally doiciled in China

28:11

now doiciled in Singapore but that has

28:14

been cancelled effectively by the

28:16

Chinese regulators because they do not

28:19

approve the sale of of a Chinese

28:21

originated uh AI company to Silicon

28:25

Valley. So I thought it was interesting

28:27

that Meta went anyway because I remember

28:29

the heyday you know over 10 years ago

28:32

when Mark was going to China and he was

28:34

very keen on the Chinese market. Since

28:37

then they've taken another attack which

28:39

is to see China as the enemy somewhat

28:41

especially the Chinese applications like

28:43

bite dance. So I thought it was

28:45

interesting that they were there not

28:46

clear to me what they were trying to do.

28:47

Maybe they were trying to ingratiate

28:49

themselves to the regulators again or or

28:52

or try to improve their profile in in

28:55

mainland China. But I thought that that

28:56

was super interesting. Okay, let's take

28:58

one last quick break. Stay with us.

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30:28

Welcome back. We'll head now to France,

30:30

another place where China is increasing

30:33

its influence. This time at this year's

30:35

Gan Film Festival, arguably the most

30:37

prestigious film festival in the world.

30:40

The China Pavilion is in its fifth year

30:42

at GAN and China Night was a gala

30:45

evening hosted last week at the start of

30:47

the festival meant to celebrate Chinese

30:49

cinema and culture. The event featured

30:51

previews of upcoming Chinese films,

30:54

celebrations of the country's artistic

30:56

traditions, and perhaps most

30:58

importantly, demonstrations of new

31:00

technology that are changing how Chinese

31:03

creators make content and how audiences

31:06

absorb that content. It's coming at a

31:08

time where you've got a lot of

31:11

conststonation and excitement about

31:13

Chinese video platform AI capabilities.

31:17

FT just ran a piece that was super

31:19

interesting looking at how uh the

31:21

Chinese video AI models are far

31:23

outpacing the American ones. So Cance

31:26

and Happy Horse for instance are doing

31:28

just better across number of metrics

31:30

than what you see out of uh Twitter or

31:33

Google or even Facebook. Uh and at the

31:36

same time there is a new uh TV show

31:40

called Pursuit of Jade in Chinese that

31:43

was the first time in history that a

31:46

Chinese TV show has reached the level of

31:49

being in the top 10 of of global

31:51

non-English content on Netflix. I sense

31:54

that after co and we've had to wait a

31:57

couple of years we are going back to

32:00

aspects of really I feel like the early

32:04

2010s

32:05

where there was a lot of global

32:07

enthusiasm about Chinese culture you

32:10

know in terms of film in terms of music

32:13

in terms of art and you know from co and

32:17

then a couple years after that it was

32:19

really I would say cloistered away the

32:22

west wasn't as interested in China

32:24

wasn't as interested in in showing its

32:26

culture. But I sense a big shift that's

32:28

happening whereby Chinese creators and

32:31

and the government supporting the

32:32

creators are super keen to show the

32:35

richness of Chinese culture. Be it from

32:37

the traditional Chinese kung fu films to

32:40

new new animated films to AI generated

32:44

content and at the same time the rest of

32:46

the world is more keen to to see it to

32:48

appreciate it uh and to share it. And

32:50

this, I think, fits in with some of the

32:52

previous discussions we've had about

32:53

China maxing. Are you a a big Chinese

32:56

film buff? And and what do you think

32:57

about this turn towards China?

32:59

>> Well, um I am a a Chinese film buff, but

33:02

I have to say I'm a film buff of yester

33:04

year probably. Um I I like the old Jang

33:08

Mo films. I was delighted to see that

33:10

Gong Lee, who starred in in many of

33:13

those Jangimo films, opened the K Film

33:16

Festival this year along with Jane

33:18

Fonda. I mean to me that just showed how

33:21

much China has arrived when it comes to

33:24

global box office and China's growing

33:27

global influence in film.

33:29

>> The interesting thing to me is the

33:32

vibrancy of the ecosystem. So the film

33:34

industry

33:36

is apparently starting to rebound after

33:38

the pandemic and you know box office

33:41

receipts are already exceeding $1.89

33:43

billion this May. This fits into what I

33:46

think um was once described to me as a

33:49

B2 consumerism in China. But what I mean

33:52

by B2 is sort of in China that's the

33:54

basement. So two levels down below the

33:57

ground floor and that's where you get

33:58

your bubble tea and your your cheap

34:00

products, dollar stores and whatnot. And

34:02

and you know in a time in which people

34:04

are more costconscious

34:07

going to the cinema can be relatively

34:09

cheaper than say you know traveling or

34:11

going overseas. So I think people are

34:13

going towards that kind of entertainment

34:16

that is more affordable and the

34:17

government has been pushing it too. So

34:19

the government is is apparently claiming

34:22

initiatives like turning film sets into

34:24

tourist destinations that will

34:26

apparently according to the government

34:27

generate around $26 billion in revenue

34:30

this year. Um the other thing that I I

34:32

thought was interesting at GAN was there

34:35

was this lady um Tina Ja I believe who's

34:38

the head of of Wingite which produces AI

34:41

generated film content and she was

34:44

saying that the Chinese AI film market

34:46

could grow to 15 around 15 billion US

34:50

and and you know we haven't gotten to

34:52

the minutiae of this but um in China

34:55

they're advancing way beyond just film

34:58

and TV shows there's a lot of short form

35:01

content that basically people watch

35:03

completely on the equivalent of Tik Tok.

35:05

So doing uh and there's also now

35:07

increasingly more AI generated content

35:10

with China really pulling ahead because

35:12

a place like Tik Tok can command and

35:15

have a database of of if so much more

35:17

content you know video content than than

35:20

even Instagram does just because of its

35:23

user base and the user generated content

35:25

scale. So, I think it's an exciting time

35:28

to be in film, you know, after a long

35:31

hiatus. All right, James, you know what

35:33

time it is. It is prediction time. As

35:35

you peer into the future this week, what

35:37

do you see?

35:38

>> Okay, I'm sticking with the film topic.

35:41

Um, as I was researching for this piece

35:44

on film, I thought, when are we going to

35:46

see the highest grossing actor in the

35:49

world as Chinese? I'm going to stick my

35:52

neck out, Alice, and say that within

35:55

five years, we're going to see the

35:57

highest grossing actor in the world will

35:59

be Chinese. So, what I'm really saying

36:01

here is the Chinese film market, which

36:03

is currently second biggest in the

36:05

world, is going to become the biggest

36:07

and therefore a Chinese actor is going

36:10

to become the highest grossing actor. I

36:12

know this isn't out there an out there

36:14

prediction. I'm really just trying to uh

36:17

dramatize a trend which I think is on

36:20

its way which is China's going to be the

36:22

world's biggest film market.

36:24

>> Really interesting. All right. So mine

36:26

is um more gerain to the summit and I

36:30

may have mentioned this previously but I

36:32

even though a lot of people may disagree

36:34

with me I have a strong feeling that

36:35

China is going to start to approve H200s

36:38

at some point in the coming months. I

36:40

think that Jeden Huang is playing his

36:43

cards right politically. He's getting a

36:45

lot of support domestically from

36:47

everyday Chinese people. You see that

36:48

across social media, micro blogs. He's a

36:52

popular guy in China. Uh and I and I

36:55

think I I'm long Jensen Huang. I think

36:57

he knows how to play the game between

36:59

the US and China. And I think he's one

37:02

of the last standing chameans that will

37:04

benefit from both sides. So I'm I'm team

37:07

Jensen. I think the H200's get approved

37:10

by Beijing because also Beijing doesn't

37:13

have enough capacity via Huawei and

37:14

Smick to to to meet the demands of

37:17

compute uh that AI will increasingly

37:20

generate.

37:21

>> Good call.

37:22

>> All right, that's all for this episode.

37:23

Thank you for listening to China Decode.

37:25

This is a production of Prof Media. Make

37:28

sure to follow us wherever you get your

37:30

podcast so you don't miss an episode.

37:32

Talk to you again next week.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses the Trump-Xi summit, highlighting that China gained the upper hand for the first time, aiming for a 'constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability.' While Washington claimed specific economic agreements, Beijing's readout was less detailed, particularly omitting rare earths, suggesting their use as leverage. The visit of US CEOs like Nvidia's Jensen Huang and Tesla's Elon Musk showcased American business interests in China. Huang's 'charm offensive' was noted as effective amidst Nvidia's challenges in selling advanced chips due to US bans, with China's domestic capacity (e.g., Huawei's Ascend chips) providing alternatives. The segment also covers the significant role of Chinese suppliers like Lens Technology (Joe Fay) in global manufacturing. Finally, the discussion moves to China's increasing cultural influence, particularly at the Cannes Film Festival, with Chinese video AI models outpacing American ones and a growing global appreciation for Chinese culture and film. Predictions include China becoming the world's largest film market and the approval of Nvidia's H200 chips in China.

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