The Hidden Machine Keeping the Dollar Alive Is Breaking
582 segments
The largest mining [music] company on
Earth, BHP, quietly started selling its
iron ore to China in Yuan. Not dollars,
Yuan. That's roughly 30% of its iron ore
sales to China processed outside of the
dollar system. 88 million tons of ore
per year. That's 8 to 10 billion worth
of trade [music] off the dollar system.
But here's the part that almost nobody
reported when this happened. BHP didn't
really want to do this. China's state
buyer demanded it and BHP, an Australian
company, one of the five eyes, one of
[music] America's closest military
allies, was forced to agree because when
your biggest customer makes a demand,
you typically meet them where they're
at. Now, 5 years ago, nobody would have
touched a deal like that. [music] A
multi-billion dollar trade deal outside
of the dollar. So, what changed last
year? Now, to answer that, I need to
show you something that has been
invisible to most people their entire
life. There is a machine underneath the
world's money. A working system of
institutions, rails, and rules built up
over the better part of a century. But
you can't see what's happening to the
machine until you understand what it
actually does and why it needs to exist
in the first place. Now, by the end of
this video, you'll see the whole
machine, and you'll know exactly why BHP
just got pulled off the dollar, one
shipload at a time, and most
importantly, what might happen next.
Somewhere at sea right now, a bulk
carrier is hauling 200,000 tons of iron
ore from a mine in Brazil to a steel
mill in China. And this happens [music]
millions of times every single day all
over the world. And almost none of us
ever stop to think about the machinery
that makes this possible because [music]
think about what's actually standing in
the way here. The two parties, Brazil
and China, the company in Brazil, the
company in China, they've never actually
met. They don't share a language. They
don't share a bank. They don't share a
legal system or even a government. The
miner's money sits in a Brazilian bank
in Riaz. The buyer's money in China sits
in a Chinese bank in Yuan. And [music]
the two banks are not connected. You
cannot just transfer money from one to
the other. And before that, whose money
would they even be transacting in? The
Brazilian miner wants to be paid in
their local currency that they can spend
at home and pay their staff. But the
Chinese buyer doesn't have any Brazilian
rias. The buyer has plenty of yuanine,
but the miner has no use for those. He
can't pay his bills in a foreign
currency. In addition, somebody has to
go first, deliver the product or get
paid. Either the seller will ship the
ore and then get paid or the buyer will
send the money and then wait for the
ore. One of them has to trust the other
to deliver. And if they don't, well,
what judge on earth could pull a
Brazilian minor and a Chinese steel
maker into the same courtroom? None. So
on paper, this deal is almost
impossible. And yet it closes every
single day. The money moves, the ore
becomes steel millions of times a day in
every port on every exchange on Earth.
So, here's the question. This whole
video hangs on. What has to exist
quietly in the background for two
strangers who share nothing to be able
to trade anything? So, if we strip away
the flags and the headlines, we'll see
that a global trade system has to do
five things, just five. And here's the
whole list. Number one, [music] it has
to price goods. The world needs a single
yard stick to measure the value of
goods. Say a copper mine in Chile wants
to sell a load [music] of metal to a
factory in Japan. Before they can shake
hands, they have to agree on a price.
But a price in what? The mine counts its
[music] money in Chile and pesos. The
factory counts in Japanese yen. And
neither side measures the world in the
other's [music] currency. Without a
shared unit, every deal starts with an
argument. Should we price it in pesos or
yen or something else? [music] And
nobody can tell a good price from a bad
one because the same ton of copper is a
different number in every currency. One
[music] shared unit ends that argument.
A buyer in Tokyo and a seller in
Santiago look at the same price and know
right away what the metal is worth. So
pricing goods is job number one. Job
number two, move the money. Money has to
move from one bank to the next. Agreeing
on a price is useless if the money can't
get there. And moving money is stranger
than it sounds because nothing physical
actually travels. There's no crate of
cash sailing to China or sailing to
Santiago. So moving money today is just
digits on a screen. One bank's ledger
ticks down and another bank's ledger
ticks up. Now long ago you could settle
a deal by handing something over that
you could weigh and count like gold. You
didn't have to trust anybody because you
could see it and measure it and count
it. But today, the job is to make a row
of digits feel just as safe and final as
metal changing hands. And that's harder
than it sounds because remember, the two
banks are not connected. So, it has to
happen in a series of steps. First, a
message has to be sent. The buyer's bank
sends a secure order to the seller's
bank that says in plain terms, "We are
paying you this much right now." Every
bank in the chain has to read it the
same way and trust it. And second, the
numbers have to move. Since the two
banks hold no account with each other,
the payment hops through a chain of
banks that do. Each one passing it
along, updating its books until it
reaches the seller, and then someone has
to confirm that it's landed. And here's
why that hidden relay matters so much.
The seller is about to load 200,000 tons
of ore onto a ship on nothing but the
promise that those digits will change in
their favor. So they only do so because
they trust the relay to work every time
on time in full. And multiply that by
millions of deals a day and the whole
world economy is resting on it. When the
relay is fast and cheap, trade flows.
But when it's slow and costly, or when
it can be switched off, trade chokes.
And whoever runs that relay quietly
holds the power to decide whose money
moves and whose [music] does not. Now
remember that one because it comes back
to haunt us a little bit later. Job
number three of the financial system is
provide a place for that money to be
parked securely. Countries that sell
more than they buy end up holding a
giant pile of somebody else's money.
Picture Saudi Arabia after a year of
selling oil sitting on hundreds of
billions of dollars. It can't just leave
that cash in a savings [music] account
sitting still. It earns nothing and
slowly loses value to inflation. So, it
lends that money out to earn interest by
buying government bonds or treasuries.
But here's the key. That market has to
be enormous. A country parking hundreds
of billions of dollars needs to know it
can turn those treasuries back into cash
the moment that it wants. It parks its
dollars in treasuries, but it wants that
money back. It needs to get at it. So,
it needs a place to [music] sell them
today or any day to somebody else. And
that place is the secondary [music]
treasury market. Treasuries trade in
secondhand all day, every day. And it
only works if it's huge because a huge
market always has buyers ready. So, a
seller can cash out fast any day [music]
of the week at a fair price. In a small
market, you go to sell and you'll find
that there might not be anybody there to
buy. So job number three [music] is park
excess cash somewhere safe. Okay. Job
number four, it needs to provide trust.
Whatever global financial system we
leverage and rely on, we need to be able
to trust that it's going to do what it
says [music] it does. Parking your money
somewhere safe only makes sense if you
trust where you're parking it. When you
park your savings in government
treasuries, you're counting on exactly
two things. Number one, your money will
not be frozen or seized because [music]
you fell out of favor. Nobody can take
it away from you. And number two, your
money holds its value. A unit handed
back to you in 10 years should still buy
close to what it buys today. And job
number five is freedom. The last job is
to provide freedom of exchange and
freedom of access to your cash whenever
you want it. to take it out of the
country, to swap it for dollars or euros
or gold, whatever you actually need at
any hour in any amount without asking
anybody permission. Money that you can't
move on your own terms is not actually
your money. And nobody parks hundreds of
billions in a place that they're not
sure they can leave. Okay? So, price
goods and services, move cash, park that
cash somewhere you can trust it, and
somewhere that is free. Hold those five
in your head because they're the
scorecard for everything that follows.
When those five jobs are done well,
something quietly powerful happens. The
whole global economy can grow and
prosper. Trade expands, money gets
invested instead of hoarded. And wealth
builds on itself year after year. And
the reason comes down to one word,
predictability. When everybody can count
on the system working tomorrow the way
it works today, they plan ahead. They
commit their money. They build for the
long term. Certainty is what growth is
built on. And this isn't some distant
complicated idea that only economists
understand. It's the exact same thing
your local entrepreneur needs to build a
business in their hometown. Businesses
grow faster in stable countries with
predictable governance and an honest
judicial system. They grow faster when
banks are reliable and contracts hold up
in a court of law. In that environment,
entrepreneurs are comfortable taking
risks to build something amazing because
there's a solid foundation underneath
them. And the global economy is no
different. It needs that same
foundation. Predictable rules, deals
that get enforced, money you can trust
and move. Except there's no world
government to set those rules and no
world court to enforce them. So, the
global financial system has to play that
role instead. And here's the thing, none
of this is theory. The world has run a
system exactly like the one we're using
today before. And we've watched it
break. In the 19th century, the British
Empire did all five jobs for the world,
and it did them very well. The pound was
the yard stick. Goods across the globe
were priced in sterling. London was the
world's bank. [music] In 1912, the city
of London financed more than 60% of all
trade on the entire planet. And for
generations, the pound was as good as
gold. Literally, anybody anywhere could
hand over pounds and receive a fixed
weight of real gold. They could price
it, they could move it, they could park
it, they could trust it, [music] and it
was free. Britain did all five. And on
that foundation, world trade grew for
decades. This was the first great age of
globalization. But then came the sunset.
The First World War drained Britain and
it never managed to rebuild the old
system quite as well. In September 1931,
the promise that had held for
generations ended for good. The Bank of
England simply stopped exchanging
British pounds for gold. Everybody
holding pounds as their safe store woke
up holding something worth a lot [music]
less that no longer converted. Job four
and job five broken [music] in a single
morning. No more trust, no more freedom.
Around that same time, the United States
piled huge new taxes on imports, the
Smoot Howley Act of 1930, and dozens of
countries struck back with their own,
choking off the open trade that the
whole system [music] relied on. One by
one, the five rules stopped being
followed. And the world did exactly what
you'd expect. Once the system stopped
being predictable, fair, and
trustworthy, it pulled back. Between
1929 and 1933, [music]
the value of world trade collapsed by
about 60%. By 1932, the world was
trading at less than 39% of what it had
just four years earlier. That is not a
slow recession. That is the global
economy completely seizing up. [music]
This is obviously what became the Great
Depression. But here's how that story
actually ends and finally ends and it's
the most important part. Once a new
system was finally built, the Brettton
Woods agreement of 1944 with the United
States now doing all five jobs, the
world didn't just merely recover, it
boomed. Between 1950 and 1973, economic
output in many countries doubled or
more. The advanced economies grew four
to 5% [music] every single year, and
trade grew faster still. It was without
question the greatest stretch of rising
prosperity that the world had ever seen.
So the lesson of history is not that the
handoff of currencies ruins us. The
danger, however, lives in the gap in
between. On the far side [music] of that
gap, when finally somebody does those
five jobs again, the world grows richer
than ever. As they say, a valley has a
peak on either [music] side of it. When
the new system was built in 1944, the
United States picked up the torch. And
for about 80 years, it's done all five
jobs better than anybody else in
history. That is the honest reason that
the world runs on dollars. It's not just
habits. It's not some plot. The dollar
does all five jobs. So the world uses
it. It's logical and pragmatic.
But that grip is loosening. And I want
to be specific and I want to be fair
because on some of the five jobs, the
dollar is still miles ahead of any
alternative options. But on others, the
cracks are real. So, let's run the
scorecard and run through all five jobs
once again in the context of the dollar,
right? Job number one, price goods and
services. Still dominant for sure. The
dollar is the world's yard stick. It's
used to price more than 80% of all trade
on the planet and nearly all of the
world's oil. But watch the edges. Watch
the margin and watch how far they're
spreading. 15 years ago, the yuan was
barely used outside of China's own
borders. Almost no central bank held it.
But today, more than 80 central banks
hold some yuan in their reserves. And
it's no longer just China and its close
friends. In 2023, a French energy giant,
Total Energies, from the heart of the
Western Alliance, settled its first
cargo of gas with China in yuan instead
of dollars. And that same year, Brazil,
a G20 economy, agreed to trade with
China directly in yuan. And you already
know the third one because I opened this
video with it. Late 2025, BHP, the
largest mining company on Earth, based
in Australia, one of the five eyes, one
of America's closest military allies,
began selling about 30% of its iron ore
sales to China in Yuan rather than
dollars. 88 million tons of ore per
year, roughly 10 billion. And it didn't
happen once again because BHP wanted
this. China's state buyer demanded it
and BHP was forced to agree. And that's
the part worth noting. China is now a
big enough buyer to push even a close
American ally off the dollar one
shipload at a time. These are not
enemies of the United States hunting for
a workaround. They are G20 members, Five
Eyes members, and American partners
settling real trade in something other
than the dollar, something none of them
would have touched only five years
earlier. Now look, the amounts are still
small, but I pay attention to what
happens on the margin because every
worldchanging trend in history started
at zero. Okay, job number two, move that
money. And this is where the dollar
probably still has its largest
advantage. The main network that banks
used to send payment orders carries the
dollar in about half of all crossber
payments. And it links more than 11,000
banks in over 200 countries. Nothing
else comes close to that kind of reach.
For now, this job is being done so well
by the dollar that no other alternatives
can really compete. However, as we'll
cover in future videos, new [music]
systems are being built, and I expect
that to change. But first, let's get
into job three, park it. Is there a
place that countries can park their
excess somewhere safe? For decades, the
US Treasury Market has done this job
better than anywhere on Earth. This is
the biggest, safest, most liquid place
for a nation to park its savings. They
can park it there. they can take it out.
But lately, countries parking their
money there have grown a bit uneasy. And
the reason is America's debt, [music]
now above $39 trillion. When a country
owes too much money, it becomes less
reliable because a government buried in
debt tends to reach for the same tool
they all do. [music] It prints money to
cover their expenses. And printing money
quietly eats away the value of that
money. The world is watching the United
States edge [music] towards that line.
And that's why by the end of 2025, for
the first time in decades, the world's
central banks held more of their savings
in [music] gold instead of US
treasuries. So sit with that for a
second. It is a big shift. And again,
it's on the margin, but it's changing
quickly. Job [music] number four, trust.
And this one, we have to say in the
American dollar system is [music]
broken. Now, here's a recent fracture.
In 2022, the United States and its
allies [music]
froze about $300 billion of Russia's
reserves after the invasion of Ukraine.
Whatever you think about the reason,
every government on Earth learned the
same lesson that day. Dollars held
inside the American system can be
confiscated. The promise underneath it,
trust that your money is yours and
nobody can take it, no longer holds.
Central banks heard that clearly, which
is exactly why they've been buying gold
at the fastest pace in generations. And
job number five, freedom. Again, broken
for the same reason as trust. The dollar
is still the easiest money to move
around and convert. That remains its
great advantage. But that freeze in 2022
put the same asterisk on this job as the
last one as trust. The freedom to move
your dollars now depends on staying in
America's favor. For a friend, the
dollar is still perfectly free. For
anybody who falls out of line, that
freedom can vanish overnights. And once
every country has watched it happen to
somebody else, they all start asking the
same question. What if that could happen
to me? So, here's the honest scorecard.
On moving money and pricing trade, the
dollar is still miles ahead, though no
longer alone. on parking money. The
market still works, but the foundation
is beginning to strain. In the two jobs
that matter the most, trust and freedom,
the dollar has broken its own promises,
not by accident, but by choice, by using
the system as a weapon. Now, none of
this means the dollar falls tomorrow. It
means the world has finally been given a
reason to look for something else. Now,
let's go back to that ship still hauling
its iron ore across the sea. It was just
a boat, but now we can see the entire
machine underneath it. What is required,
the five jobs that must happen invisibly
for that single deal to close. That is
[music] the whole point of this video.
Not to frighten anybody or tell you that
the dollar is going to crash because
quite frankly, I don't think it's going
to, but to take something that you
[music] have used every day and maybe
never thought once about it and let you
finally see it. see the mechanics that
underpin the system and how fragile they
are when you start breaking the rules.
Because once you see this machine and
you understand the mechanics, then you
can understand what's happening to it
because you can break it up into its
individual parts and assess [music] them
independently. Now, the current system
we use built on the US dollar still does
all five jobs and still does two of
those jobs better than anybody else. But
it has started to break its own rules on
maybe the two that matter the most.
Trust and freedom. Those two now come
with conditions. And you don't need me
to tell you what happens next. You could
watch it yourself in the headlines
[music] that everybody else reads as
noise. A French company paying for gas
in yuan. and Australian miners selling
ore in Yuan. [music]
Central banks holding more gold than US
treasuries for the first time in
decades. Now you'll see them for what
they really are, small [music] moves in
a slow, quiet game. So what does this
mean for you? Sitting so far from any of
it, it means more than it seems. Because
everything that you own is counted in
money in some central unit. Your
savings, your paycheck, your home, your
retirement, it all sits on top of this
machine. And when it works, prices hold
and your money keeps its value while you
sleep. That's not a gift. It's the quiet
output of a system doing its five jobs.
And history is blunt about what happens
when that system phrase. The last time
the world went through a handoff just
like this, trade fell by 23. And the
result was the Great Depression. The
danger has never been the new system.
The danger is the gap in between two
systems. the valley between two peaks
and we may be living in the early part
of exactly such a transition right now
but this is not a doom story and I and I
wouldn't put that out there because
history's other lesson is the hopeful
one every one of these gaps ended and
the far side of each brought one of the
greatest booms the world had ever seen a
valley has a peak on either side of it
the work required and the reason we do
this is so that we know which side of
that slope we're standing on the one
going down to the one going back up. And
to notice as the biggest players in the
global economy already have that when
the promises behind paper money begin to
wobble, the world quietly moves towards
the things that cannot be printed,
cannot be frozen, or cannot be switched
off. Maybe the machine beneath the money
that you rely on was invisible to you.
My hope is that it's not invisible
anymore. And in a world where the ground
underneath money is absolutely shifting,
seeing it clearly is the whole
advantage. But honest question, what am
I missing? Let me know in the comments.
If you enjoy my content, my name is Jay
Martin and this is the J Martin Show and
I publish right here every single
Saturday and I love doing it. If you
enjoyed this, do me a favor. Click like,
hit subscribe, but most importantly,
share this video with a friend. Somebody
that you know needs to see it. I'll see
you next Saturday. Have a great week.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video provides a detailed analysis of the global financial system, centered around the US dollar's dominance. It explains the five essential functions this system performs—pricing goods, moving money, securing cash, providing trust, and ensuring freedom of exchange—and explores how cracks are appearing in the dollar's hegemony. Specifically, recent actions like freezing assets and increasing national debt have caused nations to shift toward alternative currencies like the Yuan and assets like gold, signaling a potential shift in the global economic landscape.
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