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The Hidden Machine Keeping the Dollar Alive Is Breaking

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The Hidden Machine Keeping the Dollar Alive Is Breaking

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582 segments

0:00

The largest mining [music] company on

0:02

Earth, BHP, quietly started selling its

0:05

iron ore to China in Yuan. Not dollars,

0:09

Yuan. That's roughly 30% of its iron ore

0:12

sales to China processed outside of the

0:15

dollar system. 88 million tons of ore

0:17

per year. That's 8 to 10 billion worth

0:20

of trade [music] off the dollar system.

0:22

But here's the part that almost nobody

0:24

reported when this happened. BHP didn't

0:27

really want to do this. China's state

0:30

buyer demanded it and BHP, an Australian

0:33

company, one of the five eyes, one of

0:35

[music] America's closest military

0:37

allies, was forced to agree because when

0:40

your biggest customer makes a demand,

0:42

you typically meet them where they're

0:44

at. Now, 5 years ago, nobody would have

0:47

touched a deal like that. [music] A

0:49

multi-billion dollar trade deal outside

0:51

of the dollar. So, what changed last

0:53

year? Now, to answer that, I need to

0:56

show you something that has been

0:58

invisible to most people their entire

1:00

life. There is a machine underneath the

1:02

world's money. A working system of

1:05

institutions, rails, and rules built up

1:08

over the better part of a century. But

1:10

you can't see what's happening to the

1:11

machine until you understand what it

1:13

actually does and why it needs to exist

1:16

in the first place. Now, by the end of

1:18

this video, you'll see the whole

1:20

machine, and you'll know exactly why BHP

1:23

just got pulled off the dollar, one

1:25

shipload at a time, and most

1:27

importantly, what might happen next.

1:30

Somewhere at sea right now, a bulk

1:32

carrier is hauling 200,000 tons of iron

1:35

ore from a mine in Brazil to a steel

1:38

mill in China. And this happens [music]

1:41

millions of times every single day all

1:43

over the world. And almost none of us

1:45

ever stop to think about the machinery

1:47

that makes this possible because [music]

1:50

think about what's actually standing in

1:52

the way here. The two parties, Brazil

1:55

and China, the company in Brazil, the

1:56

company in China, they've never actually

1:58

met. They don't share a language. They

2:00

don't share a bank. They don't share a

2:01

legal system or even a government. The

2:04

miner's money sits in a Brazilian bank

2:06

in Riaz. The buyer's money in China sits

2:09

in a Chinese bank in Yuan. And [music]

2:11

the two banks are not connected. You

2:13

cannot just transfer money from one to

2:16

the other. And before that, whose money

2:18

would they even be transacting in? The

2:20

Brazilian miner wants to be paid in

2:22

their local currency that they can spend

2:23

at home and pay their staff. But the

2:25

Chinese buyer doesn't have any Brazilian

2:28

rias. The buyer has plenty of yuanine,

2:30

but the miner has no use for those. He

2:32

can't pay his bills in a foreign

2:34

currency. In addition, somebody has to

2:36

go first, deliver the product or get

2:38

paid. Either the seller will ship the

2:40

ore and then get paid or the buyer will

2:42

send the money and then wait for the

2:44

ore. One of them has to trust the other

2:46

to deliver. And if they don't, well,

2:48

what judge on earth could pull a

2:50

Brazilian minor and a Chinese steel

2:52

maker into the same courtroom? None. So

2:56

on paper, this deal is almost

2:58

impossible. And yet it closes every

3:00

single day. The money moves, the ore

3:02

becomes steel millions of times a day in

3:04

every port on every exchange on Earth.

3:07

So, here's the question. This whole

3:09

video hangs on. What has to exist

3:11

quietly in the background for two

3:13

strangers who share nothing to be able

3:15

to trade anything? So, if we strip away

3:18

the flags and the headlines, we'll see

3:20

that a global trade system has to do

3:22

five things, just five. And here's the

3:25

whole list. Number one, [music] it has

3:27

to price goods. The world needs a single

3:30

yard stick to measure the value of

3:32

goods. Say a copper mine in Chile wants

3:34

to sell a load [music] of metal to a

3:36

factory in Japan. Before they can shake

3:39

hands, they have to agree on a price.

3:41

But a price in what? The mine counts its

3:44

[music] money in Chile and pesos. The

3:45

factory counts in Japanese yen. And

3:48

neither side measures the world in the

3:50

other's [music] currency. Without a

3:52

shared unit, every deal starts with an

3:54

argument. Should we price it in pesos or

3:56

yen or something else? [music] And

3:58

nobody can tell a good price from a bad

4:00

one because the same ton of copper is a

4:02

different number in every currency. One

4:04

[music] shared unit ends that argument.

4:07

A buyer in Tokyo and a seller in

4:09

Santiago look at the same price and know

4:12

right away what the metal is worth. So

4:15

pricing goods is job number one. Job

4:17

number two, move the money. Money has to

4:20

move from one bank to the next. Agreeing

4:22

on a price is useless if the money can't

4:24

get there. And moving money is stranger

4:27

than it sounds because nothing physical

4:29

actually travels. There's no crate of

4:32

cash sailing to China or sailing to

4:34

Santiago. So moving money today is just

4:37

digits on a screen. One bank's ledger

4:39

ticks down and another bank's ledger

4:41

ticks up. Now long ago you could settle

4:44

a deal by handing something over that

4:45

you could weigh and count like gold. You

4:47

didn't have to trust anybody because you

4:49

could see it and measure it and count

4:51

it. But today, the job is to make a row

4:54

of digits feel just as safe and final as

4:57

metal changing hands. And that's harder

5:00

than it sounds because remember, the two

5:02

banks are not connected. So, it has to

5:04

happen in a series of steps. First, a

5:07

message has to be sent. The buyer's bank

5:10

sends a secure order to the seller's

5:12

bank that says in plain terms, "We are

5:15

paying you this much right now." Every

5:18

bank in the chain has to read it the

5:20

same way and trust it. And second, the

5:23

numbers have to move. Since the two

5:25

banks hold no account with each other,

5:27

the payment hops through a chain of

5:29

banks that do. Each one passing it

5:32

along, updating its books until it

5:35

reaches the seller, and then someone has

5:37

to confirm that it's landed. And here's

5:39

why that hidden relay matters so much.

5:42

The seller is about to load 200,000 tons

5:44

of ore onto a ship on nothing but the

5:47

promise that those digits will change in

5:49

their favor. So they only do so because

5:52

they trust the relay to work every time

5:54

on time in full. And multiply that by

5:57

millions of deals a day and the whole

5:59

world economy is resting on it. When the

6:02

relay is fast and cheap, trade flows.

6:04

But when it's slow and costly, or when

6:06

it can be switched off, trade chokes.

6:09

And whoever runs that relay quietly

6:11

holds the power to decide whose money

6:14

moves and whose [music] does not. Now

6:17

remember that one because it comes back

6:18

to haunt us a little bit later. Job

6:20

number three of the financial system is

6:22

provide a place for that money to be

6:24

parked securely. Countries that sell

6:27

more than they buy end up holding a

6:29

giant pile of somebody else's money.

6:31

Picture Saudi Arabia after a year of

6:34

selling oil sitting on hundreds of

6:36

billions of dollars. It can't just leave

6:38

that cash in a savings [music] account

6:40

sitting still. It earns nothing and

6:42

slowly loses value to inflation. So, it

6:45

lends that money out to earn interest by

6:48

buying government bonds or treasuries.

6:50

But here's the key. That market has to

6:53

be enormous. A country parking hundreds

6:56

of billions of dollars needs to know it

6:58

can turn those treasuries back into cash

7:01

the moment that it wants. It parks its

7:04

dollars in treasuries, but it wants that

7:05

money back. It needs to get at it. So,

7:07

it needs a place to [music] sell them

7:09

today or any day to somebody else. And

7:12

that place is the secondary [music]

7:14

treasury market. Treasuries trade in

7:16

secondhand all day, every day. And it

7:18

only works if it's huge because a huge

7:21

market always has buyers ready. So, a

7:24

seller can cash out fast any day [music]

7:26

of the week at a fair price. In a small

7:28

market, you go to sell and you'll find

7:30

that there might not be anybody there to

7:32

buy. So job number three [music] is park

7:34

excess cash somewhere safe. Okay. Job

7:38

number four, it needs to provide trust.

7:40

Whatever global financial system we

7:43

leverage and rely on, we need to be able

7:45

to trust that it's going to do what it

7:46

says [music] it does. Parking your money

7:48

somewhere safe only makes sense if you

7:51

trust where you're parking it. When you

7:53

park your savings in government

7:54

treasuries, you're counting on exactly

7:56

two things. Number one, your money will

7:59

not be frozen or seized because [music]

8:02

you fell out of favor. Nobody can take

8:04

it away from you. And number two, your

8:07

money holds its value. A unit handed

8:10

back to you in 10 years should still buy

8:12

close to what it buys today. And job

8:14

number five is freedom. The last job is

8:17

to provide freedom of exchange and

8:20

freedom of access to your cash whenever

8:22

you want it. to take it out of the

8:23

country, to swap it for dollars or euros

8:26

or gold, whatever you actually need at

8:28

any hour in any amount without asking

8:31

anybody permission. Money that you can't

8:34

move on your own terms is not actually

8:37

your money. And nobody parks hundreds of

8:40

billions in a place that they're not

8:41

sure they can leave. Okay? So, price

8:44

goods and services, move cash, park that

8:47

cash somewhere you can trust it, and

8:49

somewhere that is free. Hold those five

8:52

in your head because they're the

8:53

scorecard for everything that follows.

8:55

When those five jobs are done well,

8:57

something quietly powerful happens. The

9:00

whole global economy can grow and

9:02

prosper. Trade expands, money gets

9:04

invested instead of hoarded. And wealth

9:07

builds on itself year after year. And

9:09

the reason comes down to one word,

9:12

predictability. When everybody can count

9:14

on the system working tomorrow the way

9:16

it works today, they plan ahead. They

9:19

commit their money. They build for the

9:21

long term. Certainty is what growth is

9:24

built on. And this isn't some distant

9:27

complicated idea that only economists

9:29

understand. It's the exact same thing

9:31

your local entrepreneur needs to build a

9:33

business in their hometown. Businesses

9:36

grow faster in stable countries with

9:38

predictable governance and an honest

9:40

judicial system. They grow faster when

9:42

banks are reliable and contracts hold up

9:45

in a court of law. In that environment,

9:47

entrepreneurs are comfortable taking

9:49

risks to build something amazing because

9:52

there's a solid foundation underneath

9:54

them. And the global economy is no

9:56

different. It needs that same

9:58

foundation. Predictable rules, deals

10:01

that get enforced, money you can trust

10:03

and move. Except there's no world

10:05

government to set those rules and no

10:08

world court to enforce them. So, the

10:10

global financial system has to play that

10:13

role instead. And here's the thing, none

10:16

of this is theory. The world has run a

10:18

system exactly like the one we're using

10:21

today before. And we've watched it

10:24

break. In the 19th century, the British

10:26

Empire did all five jobs for the world,

10:28

and it did them very well. The pound was

10:30

the yard stick. Goods across the globe

10:33

were priced in sterling. London was the

10:36

world's bank. [music] In 1912, the city

10:38

of London financed more than 60% of all

10:41

trade on the entire planet. And for

10:43

generations, the pound was as good as

10:45

gold. Literally, anybody anywhere could

10:47

hand over pounds and receive a fixed

10:49

weight of real gold. They could price

10:51

it, they could move it, they could park

10:53

it, they could trust it, [music] and it

10:54

was free. Britain did all five. And on

10:57

that foundation, world trade grew for

10:59

decades. This was the first great age of

11:02

globalization. But then came the sunset.

11:05

The First World War drained Britain and

11:07

it never managed to rebuild the old

11:10

system quite as well. In September 1931,

11:13

the promise that had held for

11:15

generations ended for good. The Bank of

11:17

England simply stopped exchanging

11:20

British pounds for gold. Everybody

11:23

holding pounds as their safe store woke

11:25

up holding something worth a lot [music]

11:27

less that no longer converted. Job four

11:30

and job five broken [music] in a single

11:33

morning. No more trust, no more freedom.

11:35

Around that same time, the United States

11:37

piled huge new taxes on imports, the

11:40

Smoot Howley Act of 1930, and dozens of

11:43

countries struck back with their own,

11:45

choking off the open trade that the

11:47

whole system [music] relied on. One by

11:50

one, the five rules stopped being

11:52

followed. And the world did exactly what

11:54

you'd expect. Once the system stopped

11:56

being predictable, fair, and

11:58

trustworthy, it pulled back. Between

12:00

1929 and 1933, [music]

12:03

the value of world trade collapsed by

12:06

about 60%. By 1932, the world was

12:10

trading at less than 39% of what it had

12:13

just four years earlier. That is not a

12:15

slow recession. That is the global

12:18

economy completely seizing up. [music]

12:20

This is obviously what became the Great

12:22

Depression. But here's how that story

12:25

actually ends and finally ends and it's

12:27

the most important part. Once a new

12:29

system was finally built, the Brettton

12:31

Woods agreement of 1944 with the United

12:34

States now doing all five jobs, the

12:36

world didn't just merely recover, it

12:38

boomed. Between 1950 and 1973, economic

12:43

output in many countries doubled or

12:45

more. The advanced economies grew four

12:47

to 5% [music] every single year, and

12:49

trade grew faster still. It was without

12:52

question the greatest stretch of rising

12:54

prosperity that the world had ever seen.

12:57

So the lesson of history is not that the

12:59

handoff of currencies ruins us. The

13:01

danger, however, lives in the gap in

13:03

between. On the far side [music] of that

13:05

gap, when finally somebody does those

13:08

five jobs again, the world grows richer

13:10

than ever. As they say, a valley has a

13:13

peak on either [music] side of it. When

13:14

the new system was built in 1944, the

13:17

United States picked up the torch. And

13:19

for about 80 years, it's done all five

13:21

jobs better than anybody else in

13:22

history. That is the honest reason that

13:24

the world runs on dollars. It's not just

13:27

habits. It's not some plot. The dollar

13:29

does all five jobs. So the world uses

13:32

it. It's logical and pragmatic.

13:35

But that grip is loosening. And I want

13:37

to be specific and I want to be fair

13:39

because on some of the five jobs, the

13:41

dollar is still miles ahead of any

13:43

alternative options. But on others, the

13:46

cracks are real. So, let's run the

13:48

scorecard and run through all five jobs

13:50

once again in the context of the dollar,

13:52

right? Job number one, price goods and

13:54

services. Still dominant for sure. The

13:56

dollar is the world's yard stick. It's

13:58

used to price more than 80% of all trade

14:01

on the planet and nearly all of the

14:03

world's oil. But watch the edges. Watch

14:06

the margin and watch how far they're

14:08

spreading. 15 years ago, the yuan was

14:11

barely used outside of China's own

14:13

borders. Almost no central bank held it.

14:16

But today, more than 80 central banks

14:19

hold some yuan in their reserves. And

14:21

it's no longer just China and its close

14:23

friends. In 2023, a French energy giant,

14:27

Total Energies, from the heart of the

14:29

Western Alliance, settled its first

14:31

cargo of gas with China in yuan instead

14:34

of dollars. And that same year, Brazil,

14:36

a G20 economy, agreed to trade with

14:39

China directly in yuan. And you already

14:41

know the third one because I opened this

14:43

video with it. Late 2025, BHP, the

14:46

largest mining company on Earth, based

14:48

in Australia, one of the five eyes, one

14:51

of America's closest military allies,

14:54

began selling about 30% of its iron ore

14:57

sales to China in Yuan rather than

15:00

dollars. 88 million tons of ore per

15:02

year, roughly 10 billion. And it didn't

15:05

happen once again because BHP wanted

15:08

this. China's state buyer demanded it

15:10

and BHP was forced to agree. And that's

15:13

the part worth noting. China is now a

15:16

big enough buyer to push even a close

15:18

American ally off the dollar one

15:21

shipload at a time. These are not

15:23

enemies of the United States hunting for

15:25

a workaround. They are G20 members, Five

15:28

Eyes members, and American partners

15:30

settling real trade in something other

15:32

than the dollar, something none of them

15:34

would have touched only five years

15:36

earlier. Now look, the amounts are still

15:39

small, but I pay attention to what

15:41

happens on the margin because every

15:44

worldchanging trend in history started

15:46

at zero. Okay, job number two, move that

15:49

money. And this is where the dollar

15:51

probably still has its largest

15:52

advantage. The main network that banks

15:55

used to send payment orders carries the

15:57

dollar in about half of all crossber

15:59

payments. And it links more than 11,000

16:01

banks in over 200 countries. Nothing

16:03

else comes close to that kind of reach.

16:06

For now, this job is being done so well

16:07

by the dollar that no other alternatives

16:10

can really compete. However, as we'll

16:12

cover in future videos, new [music]

16:14

systems are being built, and I expect

16:16

that to change. But first, let's get

16:18

into job three, park it. Is there a

16:20

place that countries can park their

16:22

excess somewhere safe? For decades, the

16:25

US Treasury Market has done this job

16:27

better than anywhere on Earth. This is

16:29

the biggest, safest, most liquid place

16:32

for a nation to park its savings. They

16:34

can park it there. they can take it out.

16:36

But lately, countries parking their

16:38

money there have grown a bit uneasy. And

16:40

the reason is America's debt, [music]

16:43

now above $39 trillion. When a country

16:47

owes too much money, it becomes less

16:49

reliable because a government buried in

16:51

debt tends to reach for the same tool

16:54

they all do. [music] It prints money to

16:56

cover their expenses. And printing money

16:58

quietly eats away the value of that

17:01

money. The world is watching the United

17:03

States edge [music] towards that line.

17:05

And that's why by the end of 2025, for

17:07

the first time in decades, the world's

17:09

central banks held more of their savings

17:11

in [music] gold instead of US

17:13

treasuries. So sit with that for a

17:14

second. It is a big shift. And again,

17:16

it's on the margin, but it's changing

17:18

quickly. Job [music] number four, trust.

17:21

And this one, we have to say in the

17:23

American dollar system is [music]

17:25

broken. Now, here's a recent fracture.

17:27

In 2022, the United States and its

17:29

allies [music]

17:30

froze about $300 billion of Russia's

17:33

reserves after the invasion of Ukraine.

17:36

Whatever you think about the reason,

17:37

every government on Earth learned the

17:40

same lesson that day. Dollars held

17:42

inside the American system can be

17:45

confiscated. The promise underneath it,

17:47

trust that your money is yours and

17:50

nobody can take it, no longer holds.

17:53

Central banks heard that clearly, which

17:55

is exactly why they've been buying gold

17:57

at the fastest pace in generations. And

18:00

job number five, freedom. Again, broken

18:04

for the same reason as trust. The dollar

18:07

is still the easiest money to move

18:08

around and convert. That remains its

18:11

great advantage. But that freeze in 2022

18:14

put the same asterisk on this job as the

18:17

last one as trust. The freedom to move

18:19

your dollars now depends on staying in

18:22

America's favor. For a friend, the

18:24

dollar is still perfectly free. For

18:26

anybody who falls out of line, that

18:28

freedom can vanish overnights. And once

18:31

every country has watched it happen to

18:33

somebody else, they all start asking the

18:35

same question. What if that could happen

18:38

to me? So, here's the honest scorecard.

18:40

On moving money and pricing trade, the

18:42

dollar is still miles ahead, though no

18:45

longer alone. on parking money. The

18:48

market still works, but the foundation

18:50

is beginning to strain. In the two jobs

18:52

that matter the most, trust and freedom,

18:55

the dollar has broken its own promises,

18:57

not by accident, but by choice, by using

19:00

the system as a weapon. Now, none of

19:03

this means the dollar falls tomorrow. It

19:05

means the world has finally been given a

19:07

reason to look for something else. Now,

19:10

let's go back to that ship still hauling

19:11

its iron ore across the sea. It was just

19:14

a boat, but now we can see the entire

19:17

machine underneath it. What is required,

19:20

the five jobs that must happen invisibly

19:22

for that single deal to close. That is

19:25

[music] the whole point of this video.

19:26

Not to frighten anybody or tell you that

19:28

the dollar is going to crash because

19:30

quite frankly, I don't think it's going

19:31

to, but to take something that you

19:33

[music] have used every day and maybe

19:36

never thought once about it and let you

19:37

finally see it. see the mechanics that

19:40

underpin the system and how fragile they

19:42

are when you start breaking the rules.

19:44

Because once you see this machine and

19:45

you understand the mechanics, then you

19:47

can understand what's happening to it

19:50

because you can break it up into its

19:51

individual parts and assess [music] them

19:54

independently. Now, the current system

19:56

we use built on the US dollar still does

19:59

all five jobs and still does two of

20:01

those jobs better than anybody else. But

20:04

it has started to break its own rules on

20:07

maybe the two that matter the most.

20:09

Trust and freedom. Those two now come

20:12

with conditions. And you don't need me

20:14

to tell you what happens next. You could

20:16

watch it yourself in the headlines

20:18

[music] that everybody else reads as

20:19

noise. A French company paying for gas

20:22

in yuan. and Australian miners selling

20:24

ore in Yuan. [music]

20:26

Central banks holding more gold than US

20:28

treasuries for the first time in

20:30

decades. Now you'll see them for what

20:32

they really are, small [music] moves in

20:34

a slow, quiet game. So what does this

20:37

mean for you? Sitting so far from any of

20:39

it, it means more than it seems. Because

20:42

everything that you own is counted in

20:44

money in some central unit. Your

20:46

savings, your paycheck, your home, your

20:48

retirement, it all sits on top of this

20:50

machine. And when it works, prices hold

20:53

and your money keeps its value while you

20:55

sleep. That's not a gift. It's the quiet

20:57

output of a system doing its five jobs.

21:00

And history is blunt about what happens

21:02

when that system phrase. The last time

21:05

the world went through a handoff just

21:08

like this, trade fell by 23. And the

21:11

result was the Great Depression. The

21:13

danger has never been the new system.

21:15

The danger is the gap in between two

21:18

systems. the valley between two peaks

21:21

and we may be living in the early part

21:23

of exactly such a transition right now

21:26

but this is not a doom story and I and I

21:27

wouldn't put that out there because

21:29

history's other lesson is the hopeful

21:31

one every one of these gaps ended and

21:34

the far side of each brought one of the

21:36

greatest booms the world had ever seen a

21:38

valley has a peak on either side of it

21:41

the work required and the reason we do

21:44

this is so that we know which side of

21:46

that slope we're standing on the one

21:48

going down to the one going back up. And

21:50

to notice as the biggest players in the

21:52

global economy already have that when

21:54

the promises behind paper money begin to

21:57

wobble, the world quietly moves towards

22:00

the things that cannot be printed,

22:01

cannot be frozen, or cannot be switched

22:03

off. Maybe the machine beneath the money

22:06

that you rely on was invisible to you.

22:08

My hope is that it's not invisible

22:10

anymore. And in a world where the ground

22:13

underneath money is absolutely shifting,

22:17

seeing it clearly is the whole

22:19

advantage. But honest question, what am

22:22

I missing? Let me know in the comments.

22:24

If you enjoy my content, my name is Jay

22:26

Martin and this is the J Martin Show and

22:28

I publish right here every single

22:30

Saturday and I love doing it. If you

22:32

enjoyed this, do me a favor. Click like,

22:35

hit subscribe, but most importantly,

22:38

share this video with a friend. Somebody

22:40

that you know needs to see it. I'll see

22:42

you next Saturday. Have a great week.

Interactive Summary

The video provides a detailed analysis of the global financial system, centered around the US dollar's dominance. It explains the five essential functions this system performs—pricing goods, moving money, securing cash, providing trust, and ensuring freedom of exchange—and explores how cracks are appearing in the dollar's hegemony. Specifically, recent actions like freezing assets and increasing national debt have caused nations to shift toward alternative currencies like the Yuan and assets like gold, signaling a potential shift in the global economic landscape.

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