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AGI Has Arrived. Here's How I'm Investing In It.

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AGI Has Arrived. Here's How I'm Investing In It.

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527 segments

0:00

If you put $10,000 into Microsoft stock

0:02

at the start of the internet era, you'd

0:04

have over $2 million today, almost 10

0:08

times more than the S&P 500 returned

0:11

over that same time frame. If you

0:13

invested that money in Nvidia when Chat

0:15

GPT kicked off the AI era less than 4

0:18

years ago, you'd already have around 150

0:21

grand, doubling your money every single

0:24

year. Well, OpenAI just did it again.

0:27

GPT6 Astra just kicked off the era of

0:30

AGI and it's already something we can

0:33

invest in. My name is Alex and I spent

0:35

eight years as an electrical engineer

0:37

and AI researcher at MIT. And I've never

0:40

seen an AI breakthrough this big. Let me

0:43

show you what just happened and how I'm

0:45

investing in it. Your time is valuable,

0:47

so let's get right into it. I want to

0:49

start this video in an interesting

0:51

place. two weeks ago on Nvidia's

0:53

earnings call. I was listening to it

0:55

live when during the Q&A session, Jensen

0:58

Hong told analysts that tracking AGI

1:00

milestones was kind of senseless. And

1:03

the only thing that matters is whether

1:04

AI is doing useful work today. And then

1:08

something big happened. 11 days later,

1:10

after OpenAI announced Astra, Jensen

1:13

changed his tune. GPT6 Astra trained on

1:16

over 100,000 Nvidia Grace Blackwell

1:19

GPUs. From chat GPT to 01 to Astra in

1:23

four years, AGI has arrived. I've been

1:26

an Nvidia shareholder for over 10 years,

1:29

and I've only seen Jensen change his

1:31

stance this fast one other time on

1:34

quantum computing. But now I understand

1:37

why. Back in May, OpenAI gave two of its

1:40

models a test called exploit gym. One of

1:42

those models was never even meant to be

1:45

released. The test was to break into a

1:47

piece of software and copy a hidden

1:49

digital flag. Some of the questions on

1:51

the test were so hard that they have no

1:53

known answers. So, the model started to

1:56

cheat. They took control of a shared

1:58

server on OpenAI's network. They used it

2:00

as a hidden message board to talk to

2:02

each other and then they used that to

2:04

reach the open internet. By July, one

2:07

model found leaked passwords to

2:08

HuggingFace and shared them on OpenAI

2:11

server that they had taken over. Within

2:13

three days, they had root access to

2:15

dozens of Hugging Face servers. Nobody

2:18

told these AI agents to do any of this.

2:21

They planned, executed, and adapted to

2:24

achieve their goals. Then last week,

2:26

OpenAI released GPT6 Astra. That same

2:30

day, Wharton Professor Ethan Mollik gave

2:32

Astra tens of thousands of his emails,

2:35

his calendar, years of his writing, and

2:37

then just walked away. 5 days later, it

2:40

had downloaded its own software, built

2:42

him a personal wiki, and now reads his

2:44

inbox to tell him what he's missing

2:47

twice a day. And that same day, Nvidia

2:50

agreed to buy Hugging Face for 12.9

2:52

billion. So, think about what's happened

2:55

over the last few months. OpenAI's AI

2:58

agents broke out of a test environment,

3:00

coordinated with each other for weeks

3:02

without anybody noticing, and hacked

3:04

their way into the biggest AI hub on the

3:06

internet. Just a few weeks later, OpenAI

3:09

shipped a model that thinks the same

3:10

way. Nvidia is buying the company that

3:13

got hacked, and Jensen went from calling

3:15

AGI Milestones senseless to celebrating

3:18

AGI's arrival. Whether or not this is

3:20

true artificial intelligence doesn't

3:22

matter to the market. What matters is

3:24

that AI just went from an intern that

3:26

needs instructions for each task to a

3:29

co-orker that you can hand a goal to and

3:32

simply walk away. And that changes how

3:34

we should invest in AI. I'm not here to

3:37

hold you hostage. So here's how I'll

3:39

cover these big changes. What GPT6 Astra

3:42

actually is and what it can do. Whether

3:44

this really is AGI or at least the

3:46

start. What changes when you can give AI

3:48

a job instead of a prompt in high margin

3:51

markets like software, cyber security,

3:53

and chips? And of course, which stocks

3:55

I'm buying as a result. I want to make

3:58

the best use of your time. So, let's

4:00

start with what Astra actually is. As

4:02

you know, we give AI models prompts, a

4:05

question, an image, a document, and we

4:07

get back an answer, one exchange at a

4:09

time. On the flip side, we give AI

4:12

agents goals and tools. Web search,

4:14

writing and running code, access to

4:16

software and spreadsheets. Then the AI

4:19

agent breaks the goal down into steps,

4:21

chooses which tools to use for each

4:23

step, checks its answers, and decides

4:26

what to do next until the job is done.

4:28

So AI models answer questions, and AI

4:31

agents do real work. GPT6 Astra is an

4:34

agent that can use the ultimate tool, a

4:37

computer. Most of the world's software

4:39

isn't built for a separate program to

4:41

run it. So, an AI agent has to use it

4:44

the same way we do through a user

4:46

interface. Astra is the first model that

4:49

can read a screen and use a mouse and

4:51

keyboard reliably enough, fast enough,

4:54

and for long enough to be handed a job

4:56

and left alone. And that's huge because

4:59

according to market US, the global

5:01

artificial intelligence market is

5:03

expected to almost 19x in size over the

5:05

next 9 years, which is a compound annual

5:08

growth rate of 38.5%

5:11

through 2034. But many of the companies

5:14

building next generation AI applications

5:16

are not publicly traded. Think about the

5:18

'9s and early 2000s. Companies like

5:21

Amazon and Google went public very early

5:24

in their growth cycle. But today,

5:26

they're waiting an average of 10 years

5:28

or longer to go public. That means

5:30

investors like us can miss out on most

5:32

of the returns from the next Amazon, the

5:35

next Google, the next Nvidia. That's

5:38

where VCX comes in, the sponsor of this

5:40

video. VCX is the public ticker for

5:43

private tech. Venture capital is usually

5:45

only for the ultra wealthy, but VCX by

5:48

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5:51

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5:53

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5:55

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5:57

investing over $500 million in some of

6:00

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6:02

infrastructure, and space launch

6:04

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6:06

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6:09

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6:11

Fundrise with my link below today. All

6:14

right. The important thing for investors

6:16

to really understand is that GPT6 Astra

6:19

is much more than a language model.

6:21

OpenAI showed Astra laying out a printed

6:23

circuit board in an open-source design

6:26

tool, placing every part and routing

6:28

every copper trace until the board was

6:30

ready to manufacture. This is one of the

6:33

slowest and most manual steps in

6:35

electronics engineering because small

6:37

changes and optimizations can add up to

6:40

really big differences in production

6:42

costs over millions of units. Astro laid

6:45

out this board in under 3 minutes. It

6:47

can also look at an image and rebuild 3D

6:50

objects as CAD code with 96% accuracy.

6:54

The previous best was 84%. This is the

6:57

step between a picture of a part and the

6:59

file that a machine needs to make it. So

7:02

this is a big step up for many markets

7:04

from interior and product design to

7:07

video games and physics simulations. And

7:09

when it comes to scientific workflows

7:11

like running those simulations,

7:13

analyzing data, and fitting models, it

7:15

scored 12 points better than Anthropic's

7:18

brand new Fable 5.1 model, 65% versus

7:22

53%. A legal tech firm named Lagora

7:26

planted four hard to find errors in a

7:28

set of 41 financial documents, handed

7:31

them all to Astra and asked it to verify

7:33

every number. Astra found all four

7:36

errors and left a line by line record

7:38

for the lawyer who needed to sign off on

7:40

it. A game studio called PlayCo plugged

7:42

Astra into their game engines so it

7:45

could edit scenes, play the game, find

7:47

bugs, and fix its own work. The big

7:50

unlock here is if the developers have 10

7:52

ideas for games, they can quickly

7:54

prototype and test all 10 instead of

7:57

just imagining them. And now we've come

7:59

full circle. Most ideas die because

8:01

proving them out requires a lot of work

8:04

that could end up going nowhere. But

8:06

that work, which used to take a lot of

8:07

skilled manh hours, now takes tokens

8:10

instead. So what Astro really unlocks is

8:13

the ability to put serious effort into

8:15

many more things very quickly. Not just

8:18

prototypes of potential video games, but

8:20

10 circuit board layouts, 10 product

8:22

designs, 10 user interfaces, 10 science

8:26

experiments, 10 financial and trading

8:28

strategies. The list goes on and on. And

8:30

businesses can be much more ambitious as

8:33

a result. So is GPT6 Astro really

8:36

artificial general intelligence? Well,

8:39

that just depends on your definition.

8:41

The Turing test measures if a machine

8:43

can pass as a human in a conversation.

8:46

If you think an AI model needs to pass

8:47

the Turing test to qualify as AGI, well,

8:51

we've been there for a while. A recent

8:53

study by UC San Diego reported that

8:56

judges thought GPT 4.5 was human 73% of

9:00

the time, and now we're on GPT6. The

9:04

term artificial general intelligence was

9:06

popularized in 2002 by Shane Le, who

9:09

would go on to co-found deepmind. The

9:12

idea was one system that can handle any

9:14

task you put in front of it. Play a game

9:16

of chess, filter out spam emails or

9:19

write a paper. Astra meets that bar as

9:22

well. If you go by OpenAI's definition

9:24

of AGI, which is highly autonomous

9:27

systems that outperform humans at most

9:29

economically valuable work, then we're

9:32

not there. At least not yet. Astro only

9:34

scores a 57% on humanity's last exam,

9:38

which focuses on measuring an AI's true

9:40

expertise across many different

9:42

disciplines. That's lower than

9:44

Anthropics Fable 5.1, Fable 5, and even

9:48

Opus 5 scored on the same exam. It also

9:51

scores three points worse than Fable 5

9:53

when it comes to coding. But to be fair,

9:55

it costs less than half as much as Fable

9:58

5 to run. And it's even worse than its

10:01

own predecessor, Soul, and a small open

10:03

model called GLM 5.3 Flash when it comes

10:07

to GDP val, which is a professional work

10:09

benchmark created by Open AI themselves.

10:13

All right, here's what I think. In my

10:15

opinion, AI benchmarks are useful tools

10:17

to measure relative progress, but

10:19

they're not a good way to quantify

10:22

intelligence itself. kind of like how

10:24

the SATs and other standardized tests

10:27

can't actually tell you how smart your

10:29

kids are. I think this was Jensen's

10:30

point on Nvidia's earnings call when he

10:33

said that tracking AGI milestones was

10:35

senseless and that what really matters

10:37

is whether AI is doing productive,

10:39

useful work. So, a better way to measure

10:42

artificial general intelligence might be

10:44

the same way we measure it with people

10:46

today. How much instruction and

10:48

additional context do you have to

10:50

provide to get the output you want? It's

10:53

not about standardized tests. It's about

10:55

how much you have to explain, supervise,

10:57

or correct a model the same way you

10:59

would judge a new hire. In practice,

11:02

Astra can reason across more kinds of

11:04

tasks, use more tools and software,

11:07

recover from failures faster, and

11:09

ultimately work for longer without input

11:12

from the user. In a nutshell, Astra

11:14

didn't just get more general. It also

11:16

got much more intelligent. You can now

11:19

hand AI a job instead of a prompt. and

11:22

that changes everything. So, let's talk

11:24

about what that actually means for the

11:26

markets we invest in and which stocks

11:28

I'm buying as a result. And if you feel

11:30

I've earned it, consider hitting the

11:32

like button and subscribing to the

11:34

channel. That really helps and it lets

11:36

me know to make more content like this.

11:38

Thanks. Now, let's talk about how GPT6

11:41

will change the market. Let's start with

11:43

the most obvious change first. Chat bots

11:46

like Google's AI mode use data center

11:48

resources in bursts. You type in a

11:50

prompt, it answers, and then the GPU and

11:53

memory sit idle waiting for your

11:55

response. Astra can work for half an

11:57

hour, 5 hours, or 5 days straight. And

12:00

on Nvidia's earnings call, Jensen said

12:03

that an AI agent uses 15 to 100 times

12:06

the compute of a human that's using the

12:09

same model. And that's on top of already

12:11

insane growth. Google alone processes

12:14

over 300 times more tokens today than

12:17

they did just 2 years ago. Just to give

12:19

you some context, 3.2 quadrillion tokens

12:23

is the equivalent of reading through a

12:25

billion books per day. About eight times

12:28

as many books as all of humanity has

12:31

ever collectively written every single

12:34

day. But AI agents don't just need more

12:36

GPUs. They change what data centers need

12:39

in three key ways. First, every tool an

12:42

AI agent uses, like searching the web,

12:44

running code, and moving files, runs on

12:47

CPUs. So CPU should stop being an

12:49

afterthought and start being treated as

12:51

a critical supply constraint by

12:53

investors. And wherever there's

12:55

constrained supply, there's pricing

12:57

power, which means high margins. AMD's

12:59

Helios racks ship 18 epic CPUs for every

13:03

72 GPUs. And those CPU slots are

13:07

uncontested because Helios ships as a

13:10

system and it's contracted in gawatt.

13:12

Microsoft created dedicated Azure

13:15

instances on top of Helios. specifically

13:17

for agentic AI and data pipelines and

13:20

hyperscalers only add things to their

13:22

menu if they plan to support those

13:24

instances for years because real

13:27

businesses run on top of them. So as

13:29

more companies and more consumers adopt

13:32

Agentic AI across more industries and

13:34

use cases, AMD's data center CPU

13:37

business becomes more and more valuable.

13:39

ARM stock should be another big winner

13:41

here. Nvidia's current Grace CPUs have

13:45

144 ARM cores each and almost 2.5

13:48

million of them have already shipped.

13:50

Each one pays ARM royalties. ARM's data

13:53

center royalties more than doubled

13:55

year-over-year and their own server

13:57

chip, the aptly named AGI CPU, already

14:00

has over $2 billion in customer demand

14:03

with Meta Platforms as their lead

14:05

partner. One obvious risk is that ARM

14:08

now has their own wafer and

14:09

manufacturing costs that they never had

14:12

when they only licensed their designs to

14:14

other companies. So, their overall

14:15

margins should naturally drop. Most

14:18

investors may not realize that Nvidia

14:20

has a booming CPU business as well. They

14:23

delivered their first 88 core Vera CPUs

14:26

to Oracle, SpaceX AI, Anthropic, and

14:30

OpenAI, which are the companies behind

14:32

Grock, Claude, and Chat GPT. These Vera

14:35

chips were designed in-house and are

14:37

Nvidia's first custom CPUs ever, so

14:40

they'll pay less royalties to ARM as a

14:42

result. Just something to keep in mind.

14:45

The second thing that changes is memory.

14:47

When an AI agent works for 5 days

14:49

straight, everything it reads and

14:51

calculates has to stay close to the

14:53

processor, so it stays in high bandwidth

14:56

memory. While a chatbot can clear memory

14:58

between sessions, an agent's memory only

15:01

grows over the course of a job. SKH

15:03

Highix, ticker symbol SKHY, is the

15:06

global leader when it comes to high

15:08

bandwidth memory, making around half the

15:10

world's HBM. On top of that, they have a

15:13

25% share of the global DRAM market and

15:17

18.5% of the global NAND flash market,

15:20

making them the second largest supplier

15:22

of memory overall. And Micron is the

15:25

American side of the memory trade with

15:27

18% of the HBM market and 23% of overall

15:31

DRAM. Their revenue more than tripled

15:34

year-over-year and they report earnings

15:36

at the end of September. This will be

15:38

the first memory earnings call since

15:40

Astro was announced, making it a good

15:42

leading indicator for compute demand in

15:44

the era of AGI. So stay tuned for my

15:47

coverage on that. Even though both

15:49

stocks are up huge this year already,

15:52

they still trade at a forward price to

15:54

earnings ratio of under eight. That's

15:56

because Wall Street still treats demand

15:57

for memory as cyclical. But everything

16:00

I've researched says that Agentic AI

16:02

makes that demand permanent, which means

16:04

memory stocks are still a great way to

16:07

get rich without getting lucky. The

16:09

third big change will be the

16:10

interconnects that link chips and

16:13

memory. When an AI agent needs more

16:15

memory, it takes it from somewhere else

16:17

in the rack, like a pool of memory

16:19

that's shared between chips. The problem

16:21

is that memory sits physically further

16:24

away from the processor. So every bite

16:26

has to cross a longer distance and that

16:29

takes time and power. Astera Labs,

16:31

ticker symbol ALAB, makes the

16:34

controllers for that kind of shared

16:36

memory and their revenues doubled

16:38

yearover-year. Astera is coming off of a

16:41

massive rally, so I have it on my watch

16:43

list for now. On the flip side, Krato,

16:46

ticker symbol CRDO, makes the copper

16:48

cables that carry data between chips

16:51

inside AI racks with a tiny chip built

16:53

into each connector to keep the signals

16:56

clean. These cables are Kratos's biggest

16:58

product line, more than doubling in 2025

17:01

and more than tripling in 2026.

17:04

Companywide revenues were up 115%

17:06

year-over-year. And management is

17:09

guiding for more than 85% growth. Tower

17:12

Semiconductor, ticker symbol TEM, is the

17:15

foundry that manufactures silicon

17:17

phetonics, the chips that turn

17:19

electrical signals into laser light to

17:21

transfer data between racks inside huge

17:24

data centers. And that business unit

17:26

went from $180 million annual run rate

17:29

to $680 million over the last year.

17:32

Management expects them to cross a

17:34

billion dollars this quarter, and they

17:36

already have $1.3 billion in photonix

17:39

contracts signed for 2027. Silicon

17:42

Phetonics chips can direct light, but

17:44

they can't make it. So, every single one

17:47

of them needs a laser. That's why I've

17:49

been pounding the table on Lumenum,

17:51

ticker symbol Liit T, and Coherent,

17:54

ticker symbol CH. Lumenum makes the

17:57

light sources that go into optical

17:59

transceivers. And for chips with

18:01

co-ackaged optics, the revenues more

18:03

than doubled year-over-year, and Wall

18:05

Street expects it to more than double

18:07

again. Coherent is bigger and broader.

18:09

It makes the lasers and finished

18:11

transceivers that carry data between

18:13

racks. That's why Nvidia invested $2

18:15

billion into each of them and made

18:18

purchase commitments with them both

18:19

earlier this year. The last piece of the

18:21

puzzle is the inference compute itself.

18:24

When an agent loops through planning,

18:25

acting, and checking its work hundreds

18:27

of times per job, every second of

18:29

inference costs money. Even when the

18:31

model is sitting idle because it's still

18:33

reserving data center resources, that's

18:36

where Cerebrris comes in. Ticker symbol

18:38

CBRS. Instead of cutting a silicon wafer

18:41

into hundreds of chips just for them to

18:43

beworked back together again in a data

18:45

center, Cerebrris keeps the whole wafer

18:47

as one chip, roughly the size of a

18:49

dinner plate. 4 trillion transistors,

18:52

900,000 cores, and instead of expensive

18:55

stacks of high bandwidth memory, the

18:57

model's working memory is right on the

18:59

chip itself. That means data never has

19:01

to leave the chip, which is why

19:03

Cerebrris can serve standard open models

19:06

up to five times faster than Nvidia's

19:08

B200s. Cerebras went public this summer,

19:11

and their latest earnings report showed

19:13

a $25.4 billion backlog against $900

19:17

million in revenue this year. That means

19:19

their backlog is 29 times bigger than

19:22

their current business today. And about

19:24

20% of that is scheduled for delivery by

19:27

mid 2028. That works out to around $2.8

19:30

billion a year or roughly three times

19:32

this year's revenue. So this is another

19:35

very focused and very early bet on

19:37

Agentic AI that I expect to do very well

19:40

over the long term. The two big things

19:42

to know about Cerebrus are that most of

19:44

their backlog is a single contract with

19:46

Open AI. So, a very high concentration

19:49

risk, but with the company that made

19:51

GPT6 Astra in the first place. And

19:54

second, they still lose money today.

19:56

They reported a net loss of $450 million

20:00

on $180 million in revenue, or a loss of

20:03

about $2.98 per share, although over 85%

20:08

of that loss came from stock-based

20:10

compensation triggered by their IPO. And

20:13

they're sitting on $8.6 billion worth of

20:16

cash. And here's the best part for

20:18

investors. Every layer of the Aentic AI

20:21

stack only has two or three companies at

20:23

the top. So instead of picking a winner,

20:26

it's easy to own most of every market.

20:28

That's how every stock in this video

20:31

works together. Micron and SKHEX make

20:34

about 68% of the world's high bandwidth

20:37

memory combined. AMD, ARM, and Nvidia

20:40

cover most of the CPUs inside AI racks.

20:43

ARM even collects royalties on the cores

20:46

inside the custom chips of Amazon,

20:48

Google, and Microsoft. Krato and Tower

20:51

connect those chips. The copper that

20:53

moves data inside the rack and the light

20:55

moving data between racks. While Lum and

20:58

Coherent make the lasers that those

21:00

chips need, and Cerebrris is the one

21:02

pure play bet on inference speed, which

21:05

is going to be more and more important

21:06

as more companies and consumers put AI

21:09

agents to work. I'm not here to guess

21:11

which companies will win the agentic AI

21:14

era. I just need to own the parts of the

21:16

stack that they can't win without.

21:18

That's the best way to get rich without

21:21

getting lucky. And if you want to see

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Interactive Summary

The video discusses the emergence of OpenAI's GPT6 Astra, marking the arrival of agentic AI. Unlike previous AI models that required constant user prompts, these agents can plan, execute, and adapt to complete complex goals independently. The shift toward agentic AI is expected to significantly increase compute demand, impacting the semiconductor, memory, and networking sectors. The author highlights several investment opportunities across this 'agentic AI stack,' including companies involved in CPU production, high-bandwidth memory, data center interconnects, and specialized inference hardware, as these are critical infrastructure components that any winning AI agent will require.

Suggested questions

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